Posts Tagged ‘Wreckage of Old Ideas’

Confirmation Bias, The Investor’s Curse

Confirmation Bias, The Investor’s Curse

Courtesy of Tim at The Psy-Fi Blog

Woman in the Tomb at

Clinging to the Wreckage of Old Ideas

The problem of confirmation bias – the tendency of people to seek evidence confirming an already held opinion and to avoid looking for that which might upset their carefully constructed mental models has attracted a lot of attention from researchers. It occurs across all domains of human endeavour and triggers all sorts of implausible behaviour, yet investors and institutions remain in its thrall.

We find examples in law courts and doctor’s surgeries, in scientist’s laboratories and the lairs of legislators. So we shouldn’t be surprised to find it coursing through the veins of economists and investors, colouring their every thought and structuring their every idea. Of course a rational market participant, faced with a theory built on a crumbling cornerstone will abandon their ideas and look for some new ones. As you’d expect, therefore, we do no such thing, clinging irrationally to the wreckage of our dreams as they collapse around us.
 

Bedford and Cavour,

Disconfirming Science

Science is perhaps the area in which we might expect confirmation bias to be least effective. After all, the processes of science are built around the institutionalisation of disconfirmation. New ideas have to run the gamut of envious colleagues who generally hate nothing more than a smart ass and take great pleasure in proving them wrong. Despite this scientists have generally proven remarkably reluctant to give up discredited theories. Indeed science has often proceeded for decades on the basis of ideas that could easily have been disconfirmed had anyone been sufficiently motivated to do so.

So, for instance, the idea that the universe is stable and unchanging was held way into the twentieth century despite the fact that Newton’s laws of gravitation implied something different. To be precise, they suggested that unless the universe was actually expanding gravity should be causing all the bits of matter in the cosmos to hurtle together towards a central point in a manner calculated to render discussions of globalisation, polar bear populations and national debt levels redundant. Yet when Einstein’s theories also predicted an expanding universe he simply made up a special constant, which he later had to ruefully remove, to stop this unwanted behaviour so ingrained was the…
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Phil's Favorites

Inflation Doesn't Have to Crash the Stock Market

 

Inflation Doesn’t Have to Crash the Stock Market

Courtesy of 

Inflation is the word du jour.

The cover story in this weekend’s Barron’s was Inflation Is Here and Hotter Than It Looks. Why It’s Time to Worry. 

But people don’t have to read a financial publication to know there’s inflation. They feel it all around them, especially business owners. A near-record number of companies plan on raising their prices.

...



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Digital Currencies

"I'll buy on the next pullback"

 

“I’ll buy on the next pullback”

Courtesy of 

There are countless people out there who told themselves they were going to buy Bitcoin the next time they got the opportunity to do so at lower prices. I can’t prove this, but I’d bet good money that most of them aren’t doing what they said they were going to do.

If you were too scared to buy on the way up, you’re definitely going to be too scared to buy on the way down. 

It’s funny how people tell themselves, “I’ll buy on the next pullback,” without considering the news that drives prices lower will ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

 

World's worst pandemic leaders: 5 presidents and prime ministers who badly mishandled COVID-19

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visits a hospital for COVID-19 patients, unmasked, in Minsk on Nov. 27, 2020. Andrei Stasevich\TASS via Getty Images

By Sumit Ganguly, Indiana University; Dorothy Chin, University of California, Los Angeles; ...



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Zero Hedge

WTI Extends JCPOA Whipsaw Losses After Small Crude Build

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A volatile in the energy complex as Iran nuke deal headlines (first optimism, then pessimism) sparked a dump-n-pump in crude prices (after Brent tagged $70 earlier in the day).

“I said that significant progress have been achieved, in my view,” Ulyanov said in the tweet.

“That is true. But unresolved issues still remain and the negotiators need more time and efforts to finalise an agreement on restoration of JCPOA.”

A return to the 2015 nuclear deal could allow for the remova...



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Politics

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

 

As the Palestinian minority takes to the streets, Israel is having its own Black Lives Matter moment

Israeli-arabs gesture and wave Palestinian flags at Israelis in a Jewish community building, during renewed riots in the city of Lod on May 11. Oren Ziv/picture alliance via Getty Images

Courtesy of James L. Gelvin, University of California, Los Angeles

The images and reports coming from Israel, Jerusale...



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Chart School

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Courtesy of Read the Ticker

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Comment: Bitcoin ambitions ...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Historic Selloff In Treasury Bonds Turn Into Opportunity?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Long-dated treasury bonds have been crushed over the past year, sending ETFs like TLT (20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF) spiraling over 20%.

Improving economy? Inflation concerns? Perhaps a combination of both… interest rates have risen sharply and thus bond prices have fallen in historic fashion.

Today’s chart looks at $TLT over the past 20 years. As you can see, the recent decline has truly been historic. $TLT’s price has swung from historically overbought highs to oversold lows.

At present, the long-dated bond ETF ($TLT) is trading 7.8% below its 200-...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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