Posts Tagged ‘Zillow’

Housing Market Double Dip Surprises Economists – Just as Original Crash Did

Courtesy of Trader Mark at Fund My Mutual Fund

The same economists shocked by the original housing crash (prices can’t go up forever?), now appear to be in the fetal position as the much too obvious second leg of the downturn has arrived.  While I do have an economist degree, living in the locale experiencing a 1 state Depression [Jan 27, 2011: Metro Detroit Home Prices Back to 1994 Levels...Before Accounting for Inflation]  had me much more negative than those who live in the ivory towers of Manhattan or D.C..  I wrote a few years ago about a few articles that also opened my eyes to what was going on out there in the rest of the country. [May 30, 2005 - Fortune: Riding the Boom] [Sep 11, 2006: Option ARMs - Nightmare Mortgages]  Hence in late 07, I showed with simple math why we were in for a doozy of a drop in the housing market.  [Dec 6, 2007: What Should Median Housing Prices be Today?]

As you can see from the mid/late 1970s to 2001/2002 the ratio was consistent in a tight range between 2.6x to 3.0x. Essentially this means the median home price in this country was 2.6x – 3.0x median household income. And it’s been right around 2.8x for most of that time. That’s 30 years….

Then in 2002+, we had innovation…. great innovation… and 1% interest rates. Easy money. No mortgage regulation. Happy times. And crazy housing prices that detached from reality. In 2006 at the height of ‘innovation’ (where were these politicians 1 year ago? seriously), the ratio went "off" the chart, it appears 4.0x. After the ‘correction’ we’ve had, that ratio has fallen all the way to…. 3.8x.

In July 2006 at the height of insanity the median price of a home was $230,200

It has already fallen in less than a year (October 2006) to $207,800

Pain over, correction done – time to party. Right? Wrong.

What are median incomes nowadays? As of 2006 the median household income was $48,201.

$48,201 x 2.8 ratio


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Housing Headed For Another Leg Down; Stabilization Misunderstood

Housing Headed For Another Leg Down; Stabilization Misunderstood

Courtesy of Mish

New house with for sale sign

With pent-up housing demand headed for exhaustion, if not well past exhaustion already thanks to $10,000 tax credits for new buyers, the housing recovery is about to reverse.

Please consider Reversal of Fortune.

One in five housing markets entered a second leg of home price declines in late 2009, after showing price increases for nearly half of last year, according to a report released Wednesday by Zillow.com, a real-estate Web site.

In 29 of the 143 markets tracked by the site — including Boston, Atlanta and San Diego — prices flattened or began to decrease again in the second part of last year, after five or more months of consecutive monthly increases, according to the site’s fourth quarter real-estate market report.

Home prices in another 29 markets, including Los Angeles and New York, increased each month throughout the fourth quarter. But the rate of increase slowed from November to December in 21 markets, according to the data.

Nationwide, home values fell 5% in the fourth quarter compared with the fourth quarter a year earlier. Values fell 0.5% from the third quarter of 2009.

"While we have seen strong stabilization in home values during 2009, there are clear signs that they will turn more negative in the near-term," said Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, in a news release.

"What we saw in mid-2009 was a brief respite from a larger market correction that has not yet run its course," he said.

Still, Humphries said markets that see a "double dip" in values before reaching a bottom won’t see a return "to the magnitude of depreciation seen earlier." Instead, the drop will look like a "modest aftershock" of the initial drop in prices. In this scenario, a "double dip" is defined as two periods of sustained declines separated by a brief stabilization or recovery, according to the release.

Stabilization Misunderstood

It’s important not to make too much of stabilization. If you throw enough money at something, prices are bound to stabilize, at least for a while. However, eventually the pool of pent-up demand is exhausted, much like the pool of original fools was exhausted.

Christ raising the


The shadow supply of homes is through the roof, rental prices are dropping, and there is no


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Home Values: Confusion Reigns

Zillow reports on the actual changes in home values, as well as the perception/misperception of changes, in different regions over the last year.  (My yellow highlighting) – Ilene

Confusion Reigns as Home Values Fluctuate Regionally; Northeastern Homeowners Overly Cynical About Home Values, But Western Homeowners Are Too Confident

ZillowHomeowners Across the Country Predict a Full Recovery in Next Six Months, According to Zillow(R) Q3 Homeowner Confidence Survey

SEATTLE, Nov. 18 /PRNewswire/ — Homeowner confidence was all over the map in the third quarter, as home values in some parts of the country stabilized while other areas saw continuing declines. Homeowners in the Northeast were the most cynical about their own homes’ values over the past 12 months, although the region posted the highest percentage of homes increasing in value during that same time period, according to the Zillow Q3 Homeowner Confidence Survey(1) and the Zillow Q3 Real Estate Market Reports.

One in five (20 percent) Northeastern homeowners believes their own home gained value in the past 12 months, according to the survey. But in reality, 31 percent of homes in the region increased in value, according to the Zillow Q3 Real Estate Market Reports.

That translates to a Zillow Home Value Misperception Index(2) of -6, which means Northeastern homeowners believe values performed worse than they did in reality – a first in Homeowner Confidence Survey(3) history. A Misperception Index of 0 would mean homeowners’ perceptions were in line with reality.

Homeowners in the West were the least realistic in the country, with 28 percent believing their own homes’ values increased in the past 12 months. According to Zillow, 17 percent of homes in the region actually increased, resulting in a Misperception Index of 17.

The Midwest had a Misperception Index of 8, while the South had an Index of 15.

Nationally, 25 percent of homeowners believe their own home’s value increased in the last 12 months. In reality, 22 percent of U.S. homes gained value. But fewer than half (49 percent) believe their home’s value decreased over the past 12 months, while 72 percent actually decreased. That discrepancy between perception and reality resulted in a Misperception Index of 10.

U.S. homeowners were also more optimistic about the future of their own homes’ values than at any time in the past six quarters. Two in five (41 percent) say their own home’s value will increase in the next six months.…
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Phil's Favorites

The Year 2020 - The Pandemic and Speculation

 

The Year 2020 – The Pandemic and Speculation

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

It’s December and I can’t really tell if this year moved really fast or really slow.

Time seemed to stand still in March as we all locked down.

But here we are in December and the stock market is acting like we are secretly running around and spending like never before.

The year 2020 will forever be remembered for the pandemic, but I will also forever remember it for speculation.

There are all kinds of reasons for the historic speculation.

We were locked in our homes…we had Robinhood and fractional share ownership and apps that let us chat 24/7 about stock...



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Biotech/COVID-19

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

 

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

This app is different. Designed by psychologists, the free and anonymous web-based app can help you remember who you came in contact with. Ani Ka via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jacqueline R. Evans, Florida International University; Christian Meissner, Iowa State University; ...



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ValueWalk

Stephanie Kelton: Stop Worrying About National Deficits

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Tomorrow evening, Bernie Sanders’ economic advisor Stephanie Kelton, a leading voice behind the push to spend more on progressive priorities, is appearing in the Intelligence Squared U.S. debate on the motion “Stop Worrying About National Deficits.”

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Economic Advisor Stephanie Kelton Debates About The About National Deficits

She's arguing for the motion alongside James Galbraith, who was Executive Director of the Joint Economic Committee in Congress. Arguing against them are Todd Buchhol...



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Zero Hedge

Restaurants Slashed Jobs Last Month

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Jonathan Maze of Restaurant Business

The restaurant industry lost 17,400 jobs in November, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Labor released on Friday.

It was the first monthly decline in the number of restaurant workers since April, suggesting that a renewed virus and state shutdowns of dine-in service are taking their toll.

The data is likely to increase pressure on Congress and the president to approve a new stimulus package, one that includes specific aid to independent restaurants that have been devastated by the pandemic.

The industry had been adding jobs at a rapid clip since May, as restaurants reopened dining rooms and expanded while consumers grew more comfortable with dining out. But it remains far below its pre-pande...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is The US Dollar About To Reach A Melting Point?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been 20 years since the last major peak in the US Dollar. Could the greenback’s latest turn lower confirm another peak?

Today’s chart takes a macro view of the US Dollar Index and highlights the long-term down-trend at each point (1). As you can see, the buck is on a topsy turvy ride, bouncing up and down within this down-trend.

The latest bottom formed after the financial crisis and has seen the US Dollar trade within a 9 year up-trend channel marked by each (2). This gave bulls some confidence that the US Dollar may have formed a long-term bottomȂ...



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Politics

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

 

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

"Georgia elections director yesterday: Trump's rhetoric is going to get people killed. Trump today: here's 46 minutes of unhinged conspiracy theories."

Courtesy of Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

Activists march through the city of Detroit on November 7, 2020 to denounce President Donald Trump's false claims of voter fraud. (Photo: Adam J. Dewey/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Just days...



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Chart School

Gold Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold swing trade is due, lets review some charts to see if it is a viable move.

The seasonal period of gold is now upon us, gold should advance for the next 3 months.

Gold Gann Angle Chart ...



Gold Channel Chart .. close up!



 

Gold Channel Chart
 


Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Ang...



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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

A few reasons for Bitcoin’s return to the record highs. It’s about $18,500 as of this writing, matching the previous highs from 2017’s original explosion.

Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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