Phil's Newsletter

Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 1,920 Edition

Yesterday was a close one!  

We briefly failed our first test of 1,920 (see yesterday's notes) but another low-volume rescue kept us from fulfilling the "Wave C" predicion on this Elliot Wave chart – for now.  

Not that I'm an Elliot Wave person, of course – my theory is that, if you are going to draw 5 points on a graph you can imagine all sorts of random patterns and SOMETIMES you will be right.  About half the time, in fact.  

I believe in bigger numbers and our own EXCLUSIVE 5% Rule™ says the S&P bottomed out at 800 (in 2009) doubled to 1,600 last Spring, consolidated there for a quarter and now has made a 20% move to 1,920 – just like it was supposed to since it bottomed in 2009 (see our many, many predictions over the years).  In fact, it was March of 2012, with the S&P at 1,404, when we set our new goals for the S&P to 1,600.  As I said at the time:

That's right, it turns out our +10% line is still pretty much right on the money, only now we switch our focus to our goal of 1,600 and begin running our numbers off there, rather than from 800.  I know I have been (and still am) Fundamentally bearish on the market at the moment – I just think we are making this move too soon – but that is not to say I think the move is unmakeable.  

SPY WEEJKY

Once we did get the dip in June that we expected at the time (down 10%, back to 1,278 and, fortunately, we had wisely cashed out our Income Portfolio before things turned ugly) we were happy to go gung-ho bullish with our Buy List – the same kind of Buy List we just finised assembling in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar.  In fact, right in that 3/17/12 post, I laid out this play to profit from our prediction:

For example, we expect the S&P to work it's way up to 1,600 and that's SPY $160 and the Jan (2013) $146/154 bull call spread is $3 and you can sell the $110 puts for


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Testy Tuesday – 1,920 or Bust!

SPX WEEKLYThat's 2 closes over 1,920.  

It's almost enough to make us regret cashing out our Long-Term Portfolio last week. We didn't expect to call a perfect top, when you have a large portfolio it can take days to unwind your positions and, despite the very low volume – we'd like to thank all the retail bagholders who bought our shares at top dollar in the last few days.  

Thanks Dave and Bill and Jack and Joe and – well, that's about it as volume is so low, there can't be more then 3 or 4 guys trading in this market!  

Last June started off with low volume too – as well as record highs – and then we dropped 5% into July.  We're simply taking our 119% cash and waiting for the dip – is that so bad?  

SPY 5 MINUTEYesterday was only the 3rd lowest volume day of the year and the action was wonderfully fake around a PMI report that was released, revised and then revised again – all in the same morning!  

In the end, they decided on 56.4, which was in-line with consensus but not before giving us a glimpse on how quickly this market can fail on bad news.  

In our Live Member Chat Room, we took full advantage of the over-reaction on the bad news to go against the panicking sheeple and buy TNA (3x bullish ETF on the Russell) in a 9:57 Alert I sent out to our Members.

That trade was so obvious I tweeted it out as well (you can follow me here) saying:

Those calls came in cheaper (because our timing was perfect) at $1.50-$1.40 and they topped out at $1.70 and finished the day at $1.61 but should be cheap again this morning, which is why I'm mentioning them now as they make an excellent upside hedge – in case the market does better than we think.  

Since we sidelined $598,000 last week ($98,000 in profits in less than 6 months), we decided to spend $3,000 on 20 of the above contracts – that way…
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Monday Market Movement – Can We Go Higher?

Record highs! 

I know it sounds like a broken record (kids don't even know what that means) to say "record highs" over and over again, but that's what the Federally fueled rally has given us – over and over again.  

Certainly the Fed remains EXTREMELY accomodative but they also stand to lose hundreds of Billions of Dollars on their current bond-holdings if rates ever do rise (because they hold Trillions of low-rate bonds, which lose value if higher-rate bonds become available) – so how long can this game last?

It's not just the Fed, of course – other people do buy our bonds (and hold our bonds) and, right now, the people holding high-interest bonds (5%+) are sitting on a gold mine as they are far more valuable than 2-3% bonds.  What happens when that begins to unwind?  Suddenly there will be a flood of bonds hitting the street at 5%+ that the Government, who still borrow $50Bn per month, will have to compete with to raise capital.  Doing this at the same time as the Fed is withdrawing their stimulus can be a disaster.  

We were talking about inflationay pressure in Member Chat this morning and anyone who has a stomach has some idea of what the real inflation rate is in this World.  This chart is from India, where inflation has "slowed" to 8.64% but last year's 15% average led to the ousting of the old government in the recent election.  

Revolution is a slow process, especially in democracies – where the population has the illusion of choice.  We are always enticed by the chance to "throw the bums out" in a few years but then, inevitably, the new bums are just as bad and then we want to throw them out too. 

That's because you can't fix a broken system when everyone is playing just a slight variation on the same news.  The way our own Government measures inflation is a joke, because 57% of the measured inflation rate is Owner's Equivalent Rent, which means, even if you are not buying a house, when your house gets more affordable (lower price, cheaper mortgage), that's considered to detract from the total rate of inflation of everything else with…
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PSW Trade Review Part 2 – Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another!

May got off to a fantastic start

In our first week alone (see Part 1) we had 47 trade ideas between our morning posts and our Live Member Chat room and, already, 42 of them (89%) are winners.  Keep in mind the main purpose of these trade reviews is to look at the LOSERS and see if perhaps we have a better entry opportunity than we had before.  

We missed on SDS (ultra-short S&P) but that was a hedge and we are still using it into June. We missed on PNRA and that's just a better opportunity to get in.   We missed on TWTR and we already doubled down on that one and already cashed out with a profit in our Long-Term Portfolio (see our other review), not because we don't still like it but because we went to cash on our Long-Term Porfolio, since it was up 19% in 6 months and we decided to sit out the summer correction in CASH!!! 

We don't know if our timing is perfect getting back to cash but even if we finish the whole year with the $98,430 gain we have now (out of $500,000) in the Long-Term Porfolio – we've certainly done our job.  Can we do better?  Of course we can – that's why we do these reviews – to see what's going right and what's going wrong so we can make adjustments along the way.

If CASH!!! turns out to be a mistake, then we can re-deploy it – that's not complicated, is it?  I know that, as a trader, you feel like you are SUPPOSED to trade – especially those of us who are retired and, if we're not trading – we get kind of bored.  

Well, we had 11 new trade ideas this Wednesday and Thursday alone (summarized in Friday's post) AFTER we went to cash – so it's not like we died, we just took adavantage of a positive turn in our portfolio to realize our virtual profits.  After all, they aren't really profits until you take them off the table!   Good poker players learn that the hard way…


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The End of May – Heading into June with CASH!!!

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real – Nine Inch Nails

Were we wrong to cash out?  

It's hard to feel bad about taking a 19% profit off the table after just 6 months (in our $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio) but we had another low-volume pump-job yesterday that sent some of the positions we closed up sharply and left us regretting our timing – just a little.  

Still, the time to sell your positions is when other people are buying, not while everyone is panicking.  We got great exit prices and, on the whole, it was fairly stress-free.  S&P 1,920 was our predicted top and we pulled the trigger to take the money and run at 1,910 because, as experience has taught us – it doesn't pay to be greedy! 

Last week and this week, I laid out my case for why the economy is not as good as it seems and certainly not good enough to be paying all-time highs for stocks.  As you can see from the chart on the left – I'm certainly not the only one who thinks so as the "smart money" has flown out of the market this year, taking advantage of each record high to sell, Sell, SELL!!!

We were a little more patient, we moved our Conservative Income Portfolio ($500,000) to cash at the end of March and avoided the April sell-off and have since been buying bargain stocks in that portfolio.  We had left our more aggressive Long-Term Portfolio ($500,000) on the table but this last leg of the rally left it up a ridiculous 19% for the year – and that's halfway to our best-case goal so it's a good time to take a break, step back, and see how the market handles early June.  

SPY 5 MINUTEIt's not like we can't find anything to do with our cash.  In additions to our usual Futures trading, we still have our Short-Term ($100,000), Butterfly ($100,000) and $25,000 Portfolios to play with and, since Wednesday
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Cashing out our Long-Term Portfolio – 29 Trades in 6 Months – Up 19%

On The Risks of Not Taking RisksAnd then there were 2.  

Just two positions remain in our Long-Term Portfolio now, short puts we sold against HOV an EGLE that are "losers," so far.  Of our other 29 virtual trades, which we finished closing today, only 3 have a loss, which gives us an 83% winning percentage – which is pretty much in-line with our usual performance for PSW Members (see our Trade Reviews).  

If you want a quick summary of my reasoning for getting back to cash – it's the same one I had back in March, when we cashed out our Income Portfolio.  I was interviewed on TV at the time, where I made my case for caution.  Since then, the S&P is up from 1,890 to 1,920 and that rubber band is simply stretched too tightly for our liking now – so we cash out our more aggressive portfolio too.  

Without further ado, here's our trade history in the Long-Term Portfolio, which died a sudden death on May 28th and 29th (there were a lot of positions to close) of 2014, at the age of just 6 months:

AAPL was our Stock of the Year pick, so that was a no-brainer and we were willing to allocate a much larger than usual block to it.  ABX is one that can still work (and we will certainly be going back to this portfolio – in addition to our new Buy List, as we seek to redeploy our cash in the 2nd half of 2014) as are BTU, CLF and EBAY.  EGLE is still open and the price is now correct, which is one of the reasons we ended up with more profit than we thought.  

GLL taught us not to play GLL, the bid/ask spreads were ridiculous.  HOV is our other still-open position, IRBT is new but we shut it down anyway (still playable) and LGF, LULU and RIG are still playable as new positions.  We didn't shut everything down because we don't like them – we just wanted to be in cash through June 10th and, if the market is


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GDPhursday – Revisionist History

SPY 5 MINUTERevisions, revisions – REVISIONS!  

We get our first revision of our Q1 GDP at 8:30 this morning (was 0.1%, probably lower now), but the big revision has already came last year and, as I predicted at the time, people have already completely forgotten about it.  

Last July the Commerce Department decided to include the "knowledge economy" - investments in research and development and entertainment and the arts. Previously, that spending was included as intermediate components during the production of other goods or services, but now they will be measured as fixed assets and reflect their ongoing contributions.

That allowed R&D and, more significantly, entertainment to be counted as fixed assets and boosted the GDP last year by $471Bn or 3%.  That's right, we added 3% to our GDP last year (essentially ALL of our "growth" by changing the rules).  Another change is how the BEA calculates pension contributions. The agency will now consider compensation to reflect the value of the pension promises made by the employer, rather than the employer’s cash contributions to the pension fund. The new method better reflects the retirement benefits a worker earns, BEA said. As a result, the personal savings rate averaged 4.7%, an upward revision of one percentage point, for the period between 2002 and 2012.

This year, the change didn't go away but the artificial boost it gave us has and our Q1 GDP was barely positive at 0.1%.  Yet, just this week, our own Mainstream Media has THE NERVE to make fun of Italy for revising their own GDP to include illegal drug sales, prostitution and illegal arms trafficing, adding just 1.3% to their own growth this year.  

Seriously, can not one single reporter in the media remember that we diddled with our own GDP not even 12 months ago?  Did you remember?  "Gosh honey, look how quickly our children have grown – now that we're measuring them in centimeters!"  

In fact, aren't we legalizing marijuana and moving that onto the economic books going forward?  Let he who is without spin cast the first stone, right?  Of course we're all ameteurs compared to Japan, who are actively pushing women into
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 1,900 Edition

SPY 5 MINUTEWow, what a rally! 

Or, perhaps I should say Wow!  What?, A rally???  It's a small distinction but clearly the fact that we are having a rally will come as a suprise to pretty much everybody – except the 2 or 3 people who run the machines that made the 62M in volume we limped into yesterday.  

Not only is there no volume but MORE than 1/2 the volume came in the last 15 minutes of the day and THAT volume was almost all negative.  It's the same pattern I've been warning you about all month (it's not June yet, is it?) and, as noted by Dave Fry on his chart – a very possible bull trap in the making.  

So who is actually buying stocks this year?  No one.  Well, no one human, that is.  Over 90% of the trade volume you see is high-frequency trading and most of the other 10% of the volume is Corporations buying back their own stock and buying each other with all the FREE MONEY the Fed is handing out:

Almost $160Bn worth of buybacks in the first quarter of this year is a stunning amount.  That's twice as much as Corporations paid in taxes!  If we figure the average S&P company pays 20% of their (non-hidden) profits in taxes, then that means that 40% of these companies' earnings is being used to buy back their own stock.  That is just bat-shit CRAZY!

They could be hiring, they could be opening new stores, buying new equipment, reasearching or developing but nooooooooooooo – they can't find anything better to do than buy back their own stock?  

Boy, the economy must really suck if there's no better use of cash than that.  Last time buybacks peaked out (and I bitched about it then too!) was Q3 of 2007, at $135Bn.  At the time, I thought it meant the Gobal economy must be in big trouble if Corporations had nothing better to do with their money.  

Now, M&A I approve of – in fact, when MSFT announced their ill-fated $40Bn buyback and dividend in October of 2008, my comment to our Members
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Tempting Toppy Tuesday – 7th Time’s a Charm?

SPX WEEKLYWelcome back!  

Not just from your holiday weekend but welcome back to the top of the S&P as we attempt our 7th breakout of the year.  That's right, a month never goes by when we don't have a new rally that takes us back to the top of the channel, nor does a month go by when we don't re-test the bottom of the channel either – but let's ignore that as it's unpleasant.  

Interestingly, as you can see from Dave Fry's S&P chart, there have only been 9 positive weeks out of 19 in 2014 but oh boy did they make them count – with almost every one of them setting a new record – before the selling resumed.  Despite all these "records" being set, the average capital allocation strategy hasn't performed all that well in 2014, so far:

Thank goodness we're not pursuing any of those!  Thank goodness also that we didn't give our money to any hedge fund managers, as hedge funds are off to their worst start of the year since the Financial Crisis. Not listed here is our "Be the House – Not the Gambler" strategy, which we will be reviewing live today at 12:15 EST in a Live Webinar (sign up here for free). 

Selling risk to others in our Member Portfolios has given us 10%+ gains for year (so far).  In fact, the only strategy we agreed with from the above chart was gold, which we bet heavily (along with DBA) at the beginning of the year.  We were still knocking it out of the park in early May, with 40 of our 47 trade ideas in early may coming up winners already (see our May Trade Review).  

Remember, this isn't about making good picks, per se – it's about having a good strategy that gives you a high probability of success – even when you are wrong about a trade.   BEING THE HOUSE and selling risk (through options) to others is the closest thing we get to a "sure thing" in trading.  It's not fast, it's not sexy - but it works!  

Actually,…
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PSW Trade Review – Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another! – Part 1

SPY 5 MINUTE1,900 on the S&P, 16,600 on the Dow! 

The month isn't quite over yet but we're up about 3% for the year now although, as Dave Fry points out, on record low volumes – which makes the whole thing sort of suspect.  

 
It seems contrived but those that can engineer a new record SPY close were able to get the job done Friday.

To some extent, we've sat out this "rally" as we moved to mostly cash last time the S&P tested 1,900 and we're certainly not true believers just yet.  Nonetheless, our virtual portfolios are well outperforming the market despite having very little of our cash committed.  Our $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio is up a whopping 12.5% for the year ($62,500) with $499,650 of cash remaining, while even the more bearish $100,000 Short-Term Portfolio is up 0.7% ($700) with $83,840 left to deploy.  

INDU WEEKLYThat's because we're teaching our Members this year "Don't Gamble With Your Investments - BE THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler" this year.  Our key strategy where use options to sell risk to others, which gives us an excellent probability of making good money in up, down or sideways markets.  Clearly, we've had a little of all of that this year!  

We have the modest goal of making 20% a year, which keeps us on track to turn $250,000 into $5,000,000 in 15 years - allowing us to retire in style. 

We have also been constructing a new Buy List (part 1 and part 2, so far) for our Members, our 20 favorite post-earnings bargains.  Those are our "official" trades but, at Philstockworld – we're all about teaching our Members HOW to trade – using the principle of "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day but teach a man to fish – and you feed him for a lifetime."  Not only does it benefit our students but many of our students become masters themselves and enrich our trading community over time.  


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Zero Hedge

Only In France..."The Right To Disconnect"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Vowing to intensify their action to overturn an unpopular labor law, striking French union workers have already left hundreds of thousands of tourists stranded, gas stations empty, and nuclear power plants stretched. However, as low-skilled American workers fall foul of minimum wage blowback, the French parliament - despite Prime Minister Valls insistence that "France must show that it’s capable of reforming" - just passed new legislation making it illegal for your employer to send you an email outside of work hours.

...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Set for Longest Run of Gains in 5 Years Before OPEC Meeting (Bloomberg)

Oil is set for the longest run of monthly gains in five years as output disruptions from Nigeria to Canada reduce supply before OPEC meets Thursday in Vienna to discuss production policy.

Every Stock Was a Buy to This Analyst Team, Then Shares Tanked (Bloomberg)

Companies probably love getting attention from analysts at Emperor Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. Investors who followed their advice for the past year, not so much. ...



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Phil's Favorites

The Fat Lady Always Sings Twice

Courtesy of James Howard Kunstler

That was the week Hillary began to look like the candidate who fell off a truck wearing a Nixon mask. Email-gate is taking on the odor of Watergate — the main ingredient of which was not the dopey crime itself but the stonewalling around it. The State Department Inspector General’s report saying definitively, no, she was not “allowed” to use a private, unsecured email server validated Donald Trump’s juvenile name-calling of “Crooked Hillary.”

We may never hear the end of that now (if Trump is actually nominated). And, of course, there lurks the Godzilla-sized skeleton in her closet of the still-unreleased Goldman Sachs speech transcripts, the clamor over which is sure to grow. Meanwhile the specter of the California primary looms, a not inconceivable loss to Bernie Sanders. ...



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ValueWalk

THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR BY BENJAMIN GRAHAM

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR BY BENJAMIN GRAHAM

...



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Chart School

Respectable Finish To Week

Courtesy of Declan.

Semiconductors were the star of the week.  The index cleared Match/April congestion and posted six consecutive winning days in a row. Technicals are all in the green and the index is above all key moving averages. Weakness will be a buying opportunity; a test of the 50-day MA would be a good start.


The Russell 2000 managed to regain the prior rising channel. Technicals are positive although it still has to make up relative ground against the Nasdaq. The index hasn't yet cracked new highs but one more days gain may be en...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Mining Stocks- Most dangerous time to own them in years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The rally in mining stocks since the first of the year has been very impressive.

The rally has taken Gold Miners ETF GDX up to test the 23% retracement of the collapse over the past 5-years. At the same time it is hitting the 23% level, two other resistance lines are being put to a test, with momentum at the highest levels in the past 5-years.

Joe Friday Just The Facts...



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Insider Scoop

Graham Media Group To Buy WCWJ, CW affiliate In Jacksonville, NBC Affiliate in Roanoke

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Graham Media Group, Inc., a Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC) subsidiary, said it struck a deal with Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and Media General, Inc. to purchase WCWJ, a CW affiliate television station in Jacksonville, Florida and WSLS, an NBC affiliate television station in Roanoke, Virginia for $60 million in cash and the assumption of certain liabilities.

The agreement to acquire Nextar Broadcasting included pension obligations. Graham Media Group, Inc. would continue to operate both stations under their current network affiliations.

Graham Media said the acquisition is subject to approval by the FCC, other regulatory appr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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