Phil's Newsletter

Philstockworld July Trade Review – Too Bearish or Just Right? Part 2

8-2-2013 5-33-28 PM BEARSNow to wrap up July.

We had a great start to the month (see Part 1) with 42 trade ideas and only 2 that didn't work but, ahead of the review, I doubt we did so well in the last few weeks as the extent of the run-up took us by surprise.  Let's see how the rest of July played out

July 8: Monday Morning – Getting Set for Earnings Season

What's happening is the Corporations have gotten ruthlessly efficient at scooping up the profits as they move operations to countries where they can pay the least and pollute the most – shifting those costs to future generations while the American sheeple head off to Wal-Mart and buy items that ultimately cost them more jobs and even more money over the long-haul.

  • LTP and STP trades were made but a watch and wait day otherwise.

July 9: Testy Tuesday – NYSE 9,300 or Bust!

The NYSE gives us a clearer picture of the market and we need to take it's lagging performance very seriously but, on the other hand – we cannot ignore the glory that is Russell 1,010 either.  The Russell (see Dave Fry's chart) is another broad index of 2,000 small-cap companies (under $2.6Bn, over $130M) and they add up to just $1.9Tn – much easier to push around!  

But, faked or no, we have to play the cards we're dealt and this is day two of Russell 1,000+ and now we have 3 of our 5 Must Hold lines green on the Big Chart, which means we need to get more bullish.  Both the Dow and the NYSE have a very long


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Flatline Friday – Options Expiration Day Gives Drop a Pause

Wheeee – what a ride!

I love it when a plan comes together.  After many, many false starts and even falser head-fakes, we finally got the dip we've been playing for.  No big deal so far, just a bit below our 2.5% lines and we'll see if they can be taken back this morning at:

  • Dow - 15,250
  • S&P – 1,667
  • Nasdaq – 3,607
  • NYSE – 9,450
  • Russell – 1,033 

As I noted in Member Chat this morning, the NYSE is keeping us from getting much more bearsih as it finished 39 points (1.1%) over the line and it's right on our -5% support so we're keeping the faith that this is just a minor pullback and not the start of a major correction, though we won't know for sure until next week as today is options expiration day and you can't trust anything that happens today.  

We've been having fun with our oil trades and, this morning, we're back at $107.50, which is our new favorite shorting line (was $106.50 but we backed off this week) and we had a detailed discussion about Futures Trading Strategies in our Member Chat this morning – very good reading, along with our usual news rundown and market overview.  Thanks to some very cheap (and even negative) rolling costs this week, the NYMEX crooks have already shifted most of their FAKE September orders to FAKE October orders:

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low


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Falling Thursday – WMT Gives the Market a Cold Slap in the Face

SPY 5 MINUTEWheeeeee again!  

I know I'm doing my job correctly when we have down days and nobody is panicking.  Frankly, the only panic we have this week is from people who got nervous and covered AAPL too soon.  In fact, we just cashed out most of our AAPL long posiiton in our Long-Term Portfolio and flipped it to a higher-leverage, smaller and more speculative play in yesterday's morning Alert to Members (also tweeted).  

Learning to take profits off the table is the 3rd hardest trading lesson we try to teach our Members.  The first two are PATIENCE and learning not to chase.  This AAPL trade is a great example of all 3 as we PATIENTLY scaled into a very large position as AAPL went down from our initial entry and now, still almost 20% below our initial entry ($585), we're taking profits off the table.  

At the same time, I have to keep telling people who weren't in AAPL or are already in AAPL and didn't double down at $400 or simply aren't satisfied with their current AAPL gains – to NOT chase the stock when it's testing $500 at the top (maybe) of a 100-point run (25%) since early July.  25% is a lot.  

I know it may not seem like it in this insane market that's literally drowning in liquidity, which is pumped in daily by the Fed at a rate of $85Bn PER MONTH, but it's still a lot – especially when it represents $100Bn of market cap.  $100,000,000,000 is, I'm sad to say, still a lot of money.  I know it doesn't seem like it when Japan's debt is now 1,000,000,000,000,000 but those are Yen, not Dollars and it took Japan a century to make that move, not 45 days.  

We're also having a blast with our oil trades, with another good entry this morning at $107.50, that's already up .50 at $107 for a $500 per contract gain and, if it bounces back to $107.50 at the 9am NYMEX open – we'll short it again!!  They punched oil all the way up to $107.90 overnight on news of riots in Egypt but
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Wednesday: Rampant Manipulation In the Markets – S&P 1,688 Edition

.SPX WEEKLYWe're right on that line again

1,688 on the S&P is a 1.25% retrace off the top and, failing to hold that, we're looking at another 1.25% drop to 1,667 and below that, we're back at 1,645, 1,622 and back to 1,600, which is our Must Hold line for this bull run to sustain itself.  

Now 1,600 is a lot of 1.25%s away, so no reason to panic and we're certainly not panicking about a tiny little pullback (see Dave Fry's SPX chart) of a 350-point run (25%) since November and we're exactly where we expected we'd end up way back in March of 2009, when we called the bottom and begain using 800 on the S&P as a base for our 5% Rule calculations.  

1,600 on the S&P is a 100% gain in what's about to be 4.5 years on Sept 9th.  That's 177 points a year, 15(ish) points a month of gains for 54 consecutive months.  That trend has certainly been our friend and, with all this free money sloshing around, there's no reason to expect it to stop – we're just looking for a pullback to test 1,600 and we've been looking for it since May.  We got it in June but it reversed too quickly so we didn't feel good about the July rally and so, we're looking for a proper drop and just a little consolidation at the 1,600 line and THEN (assuming it holds), we can feel good about cheerleading the next leg up – to 1760.  

Another chart we're watching closely is, of course, oil and, as we keep telling you and our Congresspeople, you can see the scam unfolding as yesterday's pump and dump allowed them to move 58,000 fake orders out of September and shift them to now create fake demand for October (now 281,000 contracts), November (162,000 contracts) and December (219,000 contracts) for a total of 662Mb worth of fake orders in those three months, along with the remaining 185Mb worth of fake orders that are still open in September.  

I say FAKE, because almost ALL of them will be shited (not closed, shifted) to fake demand in the next 3 months over the next…
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Testy Tuesday – Blurred Lines

I feel so lucky
Hey, hey, hey
You wanna hug me
Hey, hey, hey
What rhymes with hug me?
Hey, hey, hey – Blurred Lines 

Sadly, this is what passes for music these days.  

Also sadly, this is what passes for a rally these days, with our major indexes skipping along their 5% lines on our Big Chart like stones across a pond.  Of course, we know what usually happens to stones that skip across a pond after a bounce or two

We're PATIENTLY waiting for the big splash on oil, which gave us a small dip on Friday (0.50) down to the $104 line but then jammed way up to $106.50 and has been over $107 this morning.  This is why we keep VERY tight stops over our .50 lines and already this morning we got another ride down from $107 to $106.25, which makes up for a bunch of dime losses on the stop lines.  Now the NYMEX crooks are pretending to want 243M barrels for September delivery and that's down just 18M from Friday and there's only 6 trading days left before they're forced to take them!  Still plenty of time to execute my plan to sell all 243M contracts (now $106.50) and force the bastards to choke on the deliveries next month!  

IEA production forecast chartOh sorry, when I said that 243M barrels are down from last week, I may have given the wrong impression as the criminal oil manipulators trading at the NYMEX haven't done anything but ROLL the contract to other months so they can keep the con going.  As you can see from Friday's chart, there were "only" 220,000 fake demand contracts written for October but now there are 233,000.  

So 13,000 of our 18,000 conracts that disappeared from September are now in October – driving those prices artificially higher.   November is up 13,000 to 150,000 and December is up 9,000, from 205,000 to 214,000.  Are you starting to feel like one of those kids who's drunk uncle is trying to show a "magic trick" to by making quarters disappear and then come out of your ears?  That's the scam:  A 5-year old
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Monday Momentum – Quadrillion Yen Stimulus Not Enough to Keep Japan Going

This Time Emerging Economies Aren\\\Japan's economy is already stalling.

Japan’s economy slowed more than forecast in the second quarter as businesses cut investment, undermining gains in consumer and government spending that helped reduce deflationary pressures. Q2 GDP rose an annualized 2.6%, down from Q1, when it rose 3.8%, the Cabinet Office reported today in Tokyo. The median of 32 estimates by leading Economorons was for a 3.6% gain.  While consumers continue to propel Japan’s rebound, companies have yet to commit to the Abenomics project, paring capital spending for a sixth straight quarter

The Shanghai Composite jumped 2.4% this morning and the Hang Sengs popped 2.1% as money flew out of Japan and into China – the Nikkei fell 0.7% on the day, now down 10% in just over two weeks.  As you can see from the WSJ chart above, the emerging market economies certainly aren't picking up the slack and, as noted in today's title, even intense amounts of stimulus aren't doing enough to drive serious growth in the G8.

imageCan you blame us, then, for getting more bearish into August?  I was working on Part 2 of a July Trade Review over the weekend titled "Too Bearish or Just Right?" and, when I started Part 1, way back on August 3rd, we were very unsure that my bearish picks were on the right track.  This morning, with Japan down 10% in two weeks and the US Futures down another half a point, at least I'm not looking so crazy anymore!  

As macro fundamentalists, sometimes we see things coming a little too far ahead of the curve – like our bets to short V recently, that we bailed on right before they crashed or the SBUX shorts that haven't kicked in yet as no one but us seems concerned that they will have to pay KRFT $1Bn+ to settle a lawsuit in the very near future.  The fundamentals on that one are simple, SBUX has $1.6Bn in cash and may get a $2Bn fine – also, they "only" earn $1.3Bn per year so it's not like this is a love bite.  

Currently, we're shorting SBUX off the $74 line with the Sept $75/70 bear put spread that we picked up
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Friday Fizzle – Second Down Week out of Three Winds Down

RUT WEEKLYOnce more unto the breach.  

We've seen this movie before – that top channel on the Russell has been upbreakable AND very profitable as we pick our Futures shorts off that 1,050 line.  Russell Futures (/TF) are very highly leveraged and pay $100 per point, per contract so – when we find a nice support/resistance line to play off – we milk it for all it's worth! 

Oil (/CL) is also a party at $10 per PENNY, per contract and we played that short at $105 off of Wednesday's inventories and caught that ride all the way down to $102.50 yesterday and this morning it bounced back to $104.50 – because the NYMEX pump crew must LOVE giving us money every day!  

Actually, it's their job to lose money pumping oil and our trading is just a small drop in their global bucket where their scheme is to mis-price oil as high as possible to set the rate paid by 300M US citizens for each barrel that's used to heat your home, provide elctricity or fuel for crops or the trucks that deliver them and 100 other ways they screw you out of every nickel.  I show you this every month and I'll show it to you again – they are FAKING orders for 261M barrels in September (1,000 barrels per contract) and they will cancel about 90% of them over the next 10 days.

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last


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Thrilling Thursday – Futures Bounce Us Back

SPY 5 MINUTEWow, what a ride! 

There was no volume to yesterday's move, which means it can be easily reversed and reversed it is already this morning as the markets pop 0.4% in the Futures (8:15).  As Dave Fry noted: "POMO continues apace and that leads to more dip buying as occurred this afternoon. After all HFT algos understand they still have time to trade before the music stops. Other investors are more cautious."  

Although there’s very little positive in economic fundamentals at home and abroad, Sandra Pianalto said in a speech Wednesday: “In light of this progress, and if the labor market remains on the stronger path that it has followed since last fall, then I would be prepared to scale back the monthly pace of asset purchases.” Part-time jobs aren’t the stuff of real employment growth. You can change all the data you want by manipulating collection methodologies for GDP, inflation and now jobs, but in the end conditions are what they are in reality.

As you can see from our Big Chart, we bounced off a few major lines yesterday and I had called out the 2.5% lines (drop from the top) for our Members yesterday Morning at Dow 15,258, S&P 1,667, Nasdaq 3,602, NYSE 9,447 and Russell 1,038 and only the Russell came really close, at 1,042 while the rest held their -2.5% lines and the Russell finished just a point under it's weak bounce line at 1,045, which is all you can ask for in a day.  

NYMOWhat we look for in bullish reversals is 50% retraces of the 2.5% drops that never happened (make sense?) which, in simpler terms, is 1.25% drops from the top at Dow 15,454, S&P 1,688, Nas 3,650, NYSE 9,568 and Russell 1,052 and, as you can see, that's about where we plowed to at the close – further evidence for us that it's bot-driven action driving the bounce.  

Still, if the bots hold the line, they hold the line.  It's a fake market and you have to accept the fake trading that goes along with it.  What we're more concerned with is how fast we work off that Oversold indicator…
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Which Way Wednesday – BOE Promises 2 More Years of QE

MORE FREE MONEY!

That's right, brand new BOE Governor and GS sock puppet, Mark Carney, has said that inflation running 50% over their 2% mandate won't stop the BOE from continuing to pump money into the market – until the unemployment rate is below 6.5% – and not even then right away.  

After doing as much damage as possible to the Canadian Economy as their Central Bankster, Goldman Sachs dispatched Mark Carney to the UK this year to run the UK Bank where he, along with Mario Draghi and other key GS alumni placed in EU Banks are setting the policy of promising to keep giving Big Business near-zero percent loans - UNLESS THEY START HIRING PEOPLE.  

Genius IQ Test by Bill DayAs long as we keep 7% of the population or more unemployed – the BOE, the ECB and the FED have all promised to keep interest rates at 0 – 0.5%.  That's become very clear.  That's why our markets sell off after a GOOD jobs number and burst higher on a bad one.  

The top 1% and their Bankster buddies  don't give a crap about whether or not the bottom 80% can afford to live – only that they can keep borrowing money for a little and lending it back out for a lot.  

The Monetary Policy Committee left its forecasts for inflation broadly unchanged. It expects the inflation rate to remain close to 3% in the near-term, and be above its 2.0% target for much of the coming two years.  The European Central Bank has been issuing a vague form of forward guidance since July, saying its governing council of rate-setters expects the main policy rate to be at current levels or lower for "an extended period of time," as long as inflation looks set to be subdued over the medium term.

3% inflation may not sound too bad, unless you consider that wages are not growing at all.  That then means that, if this condition persists for 33 years, all workers officially become slaves, forced to work for 0 under the inflated economy.  This is, of course, the actual goal of the Goldman
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Testy Tuesday – Is There Anybody Out There?

SPY 5 MINUTE

Is there anybody out there? 

Just nod if you can hear me 

Is there anyone home? 

Relax 

I'll need some information first 

Just the basic facts 

Can you show me where it hurts? 

I, have become comfortably numb – Floyd 

Yesterday's volume was the lowest of 2013 – and that includes half-days!  

As noted in yesterday's post, it's a fitting song choice for this over-stimulated economy, where the money flows into stocks simply because it has nowhere else to go and the VIX drops down to 11.84 with the OEX (S&P 100 Options) trading at a record high causing what is known as the "Blue Sky Index" (OEX/VIX) to reach a level it usually reaches just before a market catastrophe

Yesterday's volume was so meaningless that Dave Fry didn't even bother charting most of it.  One meaningful chart we did find, and discussed in our early morning Member Chat was BAC's net of Institutional and Private Client Equity Purchases, which are flashing a signal last seen in late 2011, when the market had a 10% correction – after having a 20% correction earlier in the summer:

As I wrote on Friday – "Fools Rush in Where Fundamentals Fear to Tread" and this chart is an illustration of the Greater Fool Theory in action as professional traders dump their too-hot potatoes on the Retail Sheeple that are now being herded into the top of the market by the Corporate Media.  …
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Phil's Favorites

Fed Hike Moving into Focus

 

Courtesy of Marc to Market

The Federal Reserve provided limited forward guidance in today's statement (July 29). It said that it "anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the Fed funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market..."  

This is the key.  There will be two more employment reports that will be released before the September FOMC meeting.  Given that weekly...

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Zero Hedge

Furious Americans Demand Extradition Of Cecil-Killing Dentist As Poachers Kill Lion's Brother

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: The status of Cecil's brother is now the subject of a "dispute" between conservationists.

*  *  *

There’s a lot going on in the world, but you wouldn’t know it if you tuned in to the nightly news because according to the mainstream media, the only thing that happened anywhere last week is that a dentist shot a lion. 

(Cecil the lion is the one on the right)

That’s right folks, Walter killed Cecil and some folks - scratch that - a lot of folks are unhappy about it.

In fact, hundreds o...



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ValueWalk

Our Commodity Diffusion Index Is At Its Lowest Level Since 2/2009 [Charts]

By Gavekal Capital Blog. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Our Commodity Diffusion Index Is At Its Lowest Level Since 2/2009 by Eric Bush, Gavekal Capital

One of the way we like to track commodity prices is by using a a diffusion index. A diffusion index is a simple way of tallying how many commodities are higher over the past year and how many are lower over the past year. If a commodity is higher than it receives a +1, if it is lower than it receives a -1. In the index below, we are tracking 20 different commodities. This means that the highest level for the index is +20 and the lowest level is -20. It currently stands at -16 so 18 commodities are lower over the past year aga...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities – 20-Year bear market in play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the Thompson/Reuters Commodity Index on a monthly basis for the past 50 years

The index took off in the early 1970’s and rallied over 200% in a little over a decade at (1). Then it created a potential double top. What followed at (2)? An unwinding of the rally that lasted nearly 20-years, taking it to the bottom of its rising channel.

In the early 2000’s, the index took off again, gaining over 250% in a decades time at (3) and the rallied looks to have ended in 2011, as it was hitting the top of this long-term rising channel.

Since hitting the top of the channel the index has been pretty soft,...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Treasury Futures Bets to Two-Year High (Bloomberg)

As oil prices tanked, hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased bullish bets on Treasury securities to the most in two years, even as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates.

Crude Tumbles Near $46 Handle As US Oil Rig Count Rises For 2nd Week (Zero Hedge)

After last week's surge in total rig count, this week saw a modest 2 rig drop to 874 total rigs. However, oil rigs rose...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

MagneGas Conducts Demonstrations for Fossil Fuel Division of Major NE Utility

Courtesy of Benzinga.

MagneGas Corporation (NASDAQ: MNGA) this week completed metal cutting demonstrations with over 40 representatives from the Fossil Fuel division of a major northeast Utility. The Company believes the demonstrations were successful as they have received multiple requests for fuel as a result of those meetings.

The Utility is one of the ten largest in the United States with over $35 billion in assets and large volume use of acetylene. Multiple company officials and representatives from the Fossil Fuel Division of the Utility were in attendance. This particular division is the largest user of acetylene and propane at the Company. The test used MagneGas® to cut 2 inch steel plates and resulted in very little pre-heat time with clean cuts. Officials have indicated an int...



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Chart School

Markets Remain Near and Above, Yesterday's Highs

Courtesy of Declan.

Tech indices finished strong after they overcame the opening half hour of selling. The Fed statement was greeted favorably, although market breadth is not looking pretty. The Nasdaq still has a distance to travel to make back all of its losses, but has done well to hold up against Semiconductor weakness.


The Semiconductor Index is struggling to make inroads against past losses as the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 push respectable gains. I find it hard to see how this scenario can continue, ...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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