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Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

S&P 500 Snapshot: An Intraday Record High

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The pre-open release of the Consumer Price Index showed core inflation in June to be a tad lighter than forecasts. The S&P 500 opened at its 0.10% intraday low and rallied to its 0.64% record intraday high about ninety minutes into the session. Strong existing home sales announced at 10 AM certainly helped. The index spent the rest of the day in a narrow trading range and closed with a 0.50% gain, a mere 0.10% off its record close of July 3rd.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.48%, 1 bp below yesterday’s close. It is now only 4 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.31% year-to-date.

Volume on the SPY ETF, which gives a rough sense of investor participation, remained light.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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A Long-Term Look at Inflation

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The July Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the June year-over-year inflation rate at 2.07%, fractionally off last month’s 2.13% 19-month high, but well below the 3.88% average since the end of the Second World War and 13% below its 10-year moving average.

For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the CPI excluding food and energy, see this monthly feature.

For better understanding of how CPI is measured and how it impacts your household, see my Inside Look at CPI components.

For an even closer look at how the components are behaving, see this X-Ray View of the data for the past six months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has compiled CPI data since 1913, and numbers are conveniently available from the FRED repository (here). My long-term inflation charts reach back to 1872 by adding Warren and Pearson’s price index for the earlier years. The spliced series is available at Yale Professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller’s website. This look further back into the past dramatically illustrates the extreme oscillation between inflation and deflation during the first 70 years of our timeline. Click here for additional perspectives on inflation and the shrinking value of the dollar.

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Alternate Inflation Data

The chart below (click here for a larger version) includes an alternate look at inflation *without* the calculation modifications the 1980s and 1990s (Data from www.shadowstats.com).

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On a personal note, I believe the current BLS method of calculating inflation is reasonably sound. As a first-wave Boomer who raised a family during the double-digit inflation years of the 1970s and early 1980s, I see nothing today that is remotely like the inflation we endured at that time. Moreover, government policy, the Federal Funds Rate, interest rates in general and decades of major business decisions have been fundamentally driven by the official BLS inflation data, not the alternate CPI. For this reason I view the alternate inflation data as an interesting but ultimately useless statistical series.

That said, I think that…
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Real Retail Sales Per Capita: Another Perspective on the Economy

Courtesy of Doug Short.

In real, population-adjusted terms, Retail Sales are at the level we first reached in September 2004.

Last week the Advance Retail Sales Report showed that sales in June rose 0.2% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, as I reported in my real-time update.

With today’s release of the Consumer Price Index, we can now dig a bit deeper into the “real” data, adjusted for inflation and against the backdrop of our growing population.

The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data in its current format. I’ve highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes.

The Tech Crash that began in the spring of 2000 had relatively little impact on consumption. The Financial Crisis of 2008 has had a major impact. After the cliff-dive of the Great Recession, the recovery in retail sales has taken us (in nominal terms) 15.7% above the November 2007 pre-recession peak to a record high.

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Here is the same chart with two trendlines added. These are linear regressions computed with the Excel Growth function.

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The green trendline is a regression through the entire data series. The latest sales figure is 4.0% below the green line end point.

The blue line is a regression through the end of 2007 and extrapolated to the present. Thus, the blue line excludes the impact of the Financial Crisis. The latest sales figure is 18.8% below the blue line end point.

We normally evaluate monthly data in nominal terms on a month-over-month or year-over-year basis. On the other hand, a snapshot of the larger historical context illustrates the devastating impact of the Financial Crisis on the U.S. economy.

The “Real” Retail Story: The Consumer Economy Remains at a Recessionary Level

How much insight into the US economy does the nominal retail sales report offer? The next chart gives us a perspective on the extent to which this indicator is skewed by inflation and population growth. The nominal sales number shows a cumulative growth of 166.7% since the beginning of this series. Adjust for population growth…
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Inflation: A Six-Month X-Ray View

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. I’ve also included each of the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation.

We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components. Some of us have higher transportation costs, others medical costs, etc.

A conspicuous feature in the table through the latest data is the volatility of energy, essentially the fluctuation in gasoline prices, which is also reflected in Transportation.

Here is the same table with month-over-month numbers (not seasonally adjusted). The change in energy costs is clearly illustrated, reflected here too in transportation.

The Trends in Headline and Core CPI

The chart below shows Headline and Core CPI for urban consumers since 2007. Core CPI excludes the two most volatile components, food and energy. I’ve highlighted the 2% to 2.5% range that the FOMC targeted in their December 12, 2012 press release, although the Fed has traditionally used the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index as their preferred inflation gauge.

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Year-over-year Core CPI (the blue line) made a moderate arc above the 2% benchmark beginning October of 2011. It dropped below the 2% – 2.5% range in August of 2012, but grazed the bottom of that range in February and July of last year. Core CPI has been below 2% for 22 of the last 26 months. The more volatile Headline CPI has spent 23 of the past of the past 26 months under the 2% lower benchmark. Much of the volatility in the past few years has been the result of broad swings in gasoline prices (more on gasoline here).

For a longer-term perspective, here is a column-style breakdown of the inflation categories showing the change since 2000.

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Note: For additional information on the component composition of the Consumer Price Index, see my Inside the Consumer Price Index.





What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort : The charts in this commentary have been updated to include today’s Consumer Price Index news release for the June data.

The Fed justified a previous round of quantitative easing “to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate” (full text). In effect, the Fed has been trying to increase inflation, operating at the macro level. But what does an increase in inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?

Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart below illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U, which I’ll refer to hereafter as the CPI.

The slices are listed in the order used by the BLS in their tables, not the relative size. The first three follow the traditional order of urgency: food, shelter, and clothing. Transportation comes before Medical Care, and Recreation precedes the lumped category of Education and Communication. Other Goods and Services refers to a bizarre grab-bag of odd fellows, including tobacco, cosmetics, financial services, and funeral expenses. For a complete breakdown and relative weights of all the subcategories of the eight categories, here is a useful link.

The chart below shows the cumulative percent change in price for each of the eight categories since 2000.

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Not surprisingly, Medical Care has been the fastest growing category. At the opposite end, Apparel has actually been deflating since 2000. Another unique feature of Apparel is the obvious seasonal volatility of the contour.

Transportation is the other category with high volatility — much more dramatic and irregular than the seasonality of Apparel. Transportation includes a wide range of subcategories. The volatility is largely driven by the Motor Fuel subcategory. For a closer look at gasoline, see this chart in my weekly gasoline update.

The Ominous Shadow Category of Energy

The BLS does not lump energy costs into an expenditure category. Instead, it includes energy subcategories in Housing in addition to the fuel…
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The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: This commentary has been updated with Real Retail Sales for June.


Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:


  • Industrial Production
  • Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Payments)
  • Nonfarm Employment
  • Real Retail Sales

The Latest Indicator Data

With this morning’s release of the June Consumer Price Index, we can now calculate Real Retail Sales for last month. Real Sales were essentially flat at -0.01% Month-over-Month. The Year-over-Year growth is 2.14%

Here is a chart of the monthly data points since 2009. I’ve included a regression to assist our visualization of the post-recession trend. The winter slow-down is clearly evident, with the dip below trend starting in December and a sharp plunge in January. February marked saw some improvement, and March almost took this indicator back to the trendline. But after two additional months of fairly standard growth, June was a disappointment.

The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the Big Four with an overlay of a simple average of the four since the end of the Great Recession. The data points show the cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June 2009. We now have the first indicator update for the 60th month following the recession. The Big Four Average (gray line below).

Current Assessment and Outlook

The overall picture of the US economy had been one of a ploddingly slow recovery from the Great Recession, and the Winter data documented a sharp contraction. The early Spring appeared to support the general view that severe winter weather was responsible for the contraction — that it was not the beginnings of a business cycle decline. But the June Real Retail Sales suggest that our consumer-based economy remains a bit fragile.

The next update of the Big Four will…
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June Inflation Largely Attributable to Gasoline Prices

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June CPI data this morning. Year-over-year unadjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.07%, which the BLS rounds to 2.1%, essentially unchanged from 2.13% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.96% (rounded to 2.0%), up from the previous month’s 1.83%. Of particular interest is the fact that month-over-month Core CPI (less food and energy) rose only 0.05% (rounded to 1.0). The headline MoM increase was largely driven by higher gasoline prices (which have dropped eight cents per gallon over the last two weeks).

Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted data monthly data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

In contrast to the broad-based increase last month, the June seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was primarily driven by the gasoline index. It rose 3.3 percent and accounted for two-thirds of the all items increase. Other energy indexes were mixed, with the electricity index rising, but the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil declining. The food index decelerated in June, rising only slightly, with the food at home index flat after recent increases.

The index for all items less food and energy also decelerated in June, increasing 0.1 percent after a 0.3 percent increase in May. The indexes for shelter, apparel, medical care, and tobacco all increased in June, and the index for household furnishings and operations rose for the first time in a year. However, the index for new vehicles declined after recent increases, and the index for used cars and trucks also fell.

The all items index increased 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as for the 12 months ending May. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, a slight decline from the 2.0 percent figure last month. The index for energy increased 3.2 percent over the span, and the food index rose 2.3 percent.   [More…]

Investing.com was looking for increases of 0.3% for…
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Gasoline Price Update: Down Another Four Cents

Courtesy of Doug Short.

It’s time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, Regular and Premium both dropped another four cents, matching last week’s decline. Regular is up 40 cents and Premium 39 cents from their interim lows during the second week of last November.

According to GasBuddy.com, three states (Hawaii, Alaska, and California) have Regular above $4.00 per gallon, unchanged from last week, and three states (Oregon, Washington and Connecticut) are averaging above $3.90, unchanged from last week. South Carolina has the cheapest Regular at $3.28.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here’s a visual answer.

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The next chart is a weekly chart overlay of West Texas Intermediate Crude, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO). WTIC closed today at 102.86, up from 101.05 this time last week.

The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.

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The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).

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Here are some additional commentaries related to gasoline prices:





S&P 500 Snapshot: A Modest Monday Loss

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Geopolitical stress and the threat of sanctions remain the big headlines, and the Eurozone’s STOXX 50 closed with a 0.86% loss. US indexes were a bit more resilient. The benchmark S&P 500 opened fractionally lower at its -0.07% intraday high and sold off to its -0.63% intraday low about 70 minutes later. A partial recovery took it to a narrow trading range, where it spend most of the afternoon, closing with a modest loss of 0.23%.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.49%, 1 bp below the Friday close. It is now only 5 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 6.78% year-to-date.

Volume on the SPY ETF was light, suggesting relatively limited investor anxiety over the headline global risks.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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Third Time Is the Charm?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The rule of three is a principle with various meanings. For writers, it suggests that topics, characters, or events that come in a group of three are funnier or more effective than if a different number was used. For the superstitious, the rule of three can be either positive or negative: “third time lucky” or “misfortunes never come singly”. We intend to unashamedly draw on both meanings below.

The close of the second quarter marked three noteworthy milestones, the first of which has particular personal importance. On June 30, 2014, Black Cypress Capital turned five. So too, did the economic recovery in the United States. And while equity valuations have been making new milestones on a near daily basis, they are now priced to deliver total returns of just 3.0% for seven years.

Over the last five years, we outperformed broad market indices as well as the vast majority of other equity managers. But we are not alone in our success. There are other investors that have fared as well. The question of concern then, is how we–including our competitors–got here. The answer to that will determine the likelihood of future success.

Equity markets have risen with minor setback since early 2009. Today, we stand atop a mountain of gains that in hindsight make our climb seem easy. Remember that it wasn’t. We have had to navigate numerous exogenous risks (a possible Eurozone breakup, the “fiscal cliff”, debt ceilings fights), unprecedented government and central bank involvement, historically low interest rates that many feared were on the cusp of soaring and crushing the recovery, frequent recession “double dip” scares, inflation hysteria, all-time-high correlations between stocks, and over the latter part of this bull market, elevated valuations only becoming even more elevated.

The point is, as a manager of risk we have had a lot of opportunities to err. And though we have successfully navigated the investment landscape with higher returns and less volatility, the outcome of our diligence looks no different from the results of an investor that wasn’t paying attention or that threw caution to the wind.

Our strategy has been and will always be focused first on managing risk and second on generating outsized returns. By its very nature, such a strategy is at…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Whi(t)ney Tilson Does It Again

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After an incredible day in Herbalife - its best performance ever - following Bill Ackman's "death blow," none other than Whitney Tilson (who oddly has not been seen on CNBC for many months) has penned a letter to his investors explaining "why I am more confident of my Herbalife short position." As a gentle reminder, Mr. Tilson entered his Herbalife short in December 2012 in the low $20s (shortly after Ackman's initial pitch) and recently made it one of his firm's largest s...



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Phil's Favorites

Mistrust the Financial Storytellers

 

#463986977 / gettyimages.com Mistrust the Financial Storytellers

Courtesy of Tim Richards of the PsyFi Blog

Homo narratus

Homo sapiens is the storytelling ape. We make sense of the things that happen in the world, of the things that happen to us, and even of ourselves, through stories and narratives. Consciousness is perhaps best defined ...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: An Intraday Record High

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The pre-open release of the Consumer Price Index showed core inflation in June to be a tad lighter than forecasts. The S&P 500 opened at its 0.10% intraday low and rallied to its 0.64% record intraday high about ninety minutes into the session. Strong existing home sales announced at 10 AM certainly helped. The index spent the rest of the day in a narrow trading range and closed with a 0.50% gain, a mere 0.10% off its record close of July 3rd.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.48%, 1 bp below yesterday's close. It is now only 4 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.31% year-to-date.

Volume on the SPY ETF, whi...



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Option Review

Sizable Call Spread Trades On Orexigen

A large call spread initiated on Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Ticker: OREX) on Monday morning looks for shares in the name to rally approximately 30% by September expiration. The September expiration is noteworthy as the company awaits the results of the FDA’s review of its resubmitted New Drug Application (NDA) for NB32, an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss, after the review was extended for three months back in June. The upcoming Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is September 11, 2014, according to a press release issued by the company. Shares in Orexigen today are up roughly 0.40% at $5.34 as of 2:15 p.m. ET.

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

NQ Mobile Shares Plummet After Announcing Dismissal Of PwC

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NQ Investors Focus On Earnings Rather Than Geopolitical Tensions NQ Mobile In Possible Short Squeeze; Muddy Waters Sticks To Guns

Shares of NQ Mobile (NYSE: NQ) dropped as much as 24 percent in Friday's pre-market after the company announced that it has dismissed Pricewaterho...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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