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Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 01:43:37 PM

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Comment: Ouch! See the last point of demand between $60 and $70 In Dec at resistance, now strong selling, Large pattern forecast sees a price under $40

Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 06:54:16 PM

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Comment: Coffe ETF bounces off support, minor spring, if get some strength to $40, a trade may be on!

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 02:28:29 AM

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Comment: XLU is not going down with SPY, defensive stocks are a relative strength winner.Yeah this is healthy! Yeah right!

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 02:45:31 AM

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Comment: Dave Kranzler a sharp analyst worth a listen video:http://youtu.be/2UFmnDeynn8:

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 02:51:55 AM

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Comment: More on the Swiss Franc unpegging. Truth they fear massive pringing by ECB

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 01:03:56 PM

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Comment: Apple forming a continuation stepping stone, all the better if suppor holds at $105

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 01:06:40 PM

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Comment: Yhoo still holding above $45, a sharp move up back to $50 would be spring action and very bullish, watch! Stepping stone still healthy.

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 01:10:28 PM

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Comment: JNJ mid range between $100 and $110, stay away from it, has best to wait till price hits support or resistance, mid range price is vulnerable to a push either way.

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 01:30:11 PM…
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Forecasting Q4 GDP: A Look at the WSJ Economists’ Collective Crystal Ball

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The big economic number this week will be the Q4 Advance Estimate for GDP on Friday at 8:30 AM EST. For some perspective on quarterly GDP so far this year, Q1 was negative at -2.1%, followed by a strong rebound to 4.6% in Q2 and a drift higher in Q3 to 5.0%. The standard explanation for the Q1 contraction is the economic impact of an unseasonably cold winter.

What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q4 of 2014? Let’s take a look at the GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

Here’s a snapshot of the full array of WSJ opinions about Q4 GDP. I’ve highlighted the values for the median (middle), mean (average) and mode (most frequent). In the latest forecast, the median and mean were an identical to one decimal place at 3.0%. The mode (seven of 65 forecasts) was a tad higher at 3.2%, and the second most frequent value was a higher 3.4%.

As the visualization above illustrates, despite the matchup of the median and mean, the latest WSJ survey had it outliers, ranging from a grimly pessimistic 1.4% to a trio at 4.0% and an even more optimistic forecast of 4.2%.

Investing.com aligns with the median & mean WSJ economists with its 3.0% forecast. The Briefing.com consensus goes with the WSJ mode at 3.2%, but its own estimate is for a higher 3.4%.

GDP in 2015

Friday’s release of the Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP is, of course, a rear-view mirror look at the economy. The WSJ survey also asks the participants to forecast GDP for the four quarters of 2015. Here is a table documenting the median, mean and extremes for those forecasts.

Interestingly enough (or should I say “boringly enough”), the median to one decimal place is unchanged at 3.0% for the next four quarters, and the mean oscillates by a fractional 0.1%.

GDP: A Long-Term Historical Context

For a broad historical context for the latest forecasts, here a snapshot of GDP since Uncle Sam began tracking the data quarterly in 1947. The Q3 WSJ median and mean forecasts are above the 1.6% 10-year moving average and just a tad below the 3.3% Quarterly GDP average since its inception in 1947.


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Sharp Reversals on Economic News

Courtesy of Declan.

It has been a while since something other than Central Banks have moved the market. This time, it was the turn of old fashioned Durable Goods to upset the party. The loss was big, but it’s still noise within the bounds of the ‘Santa Rally’.  Consolidation breakouts remain in play, although volume climbed to register distribution.

The S&P crossed below its 50-day MA, but it’s a flatlined moving average. Technicals are mixed.


The Nasdaq repeated the action of the S&P. The MACD edged a break of declining resistance, although there was a bearish cross between -DI and +DI.

The Russell 2000 had a relatively quiet day. Selling action in the S&P and Nasdaq didn’t really impact on the Russell 2000. This is good news for bulls, even if today didn’t look it.  Technicals for this index are all net bullish.

Tomorrow is another day, but at worst the consolidations which had formed since Christmas are negated, but those December ‘Santa Rally’ support and resistance levels remain (bar some real *heavy* selling/buying).

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





The "Real" Goods on the Latest Durable Goods Data

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Earlier today I posted an update on the January Advance Report on December Durable Goods New Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.

Let’s now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index for All Commodities, chained in today’s dollar value. This gives us the “real” durable goods orders per capita and thus a more accurate historical context in which to evaluate the conventional reports on the nominal monthly data.

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Economists frequently study this indicator excluding Transportation or Defense or both. Just how big are these two subcomponents? Here is a stacked area chart to illustrate the relative sizes over time based on the nominal data.

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Here is the first chart, repeated this time ex Transportation, the series usually referred to as “core” durable goods.

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Now we’ll leave Transportation in the series and exclude Defense orders.

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And now we’ll exclude both Transportation and Defense for a better look at a more concentrated “core” durable goods orders.

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Here is the chart that I believe gives the most accurate view of what Consumer Durable Goods Orders is telling us about the long-term economic trend. The three-month moving average of the real (inflation-adjusted) core series (ex transportation and defense) per capita helps us filter out the noise of volatility to see the big picture.

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The Trend in Capital Goods

Finally, let’s take…
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S&P 500 Snapshot: A Plunge on Weak Earnings and (Mostly) Bad Economic News

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Weak earnings and an ugly Durable Goods Report for December apparently took their toll today, despite a stunning surge in Consumer Confidence. The S&P 500 plunged in the opening minutes and hit its -1.81% intraday low at 10:45, seemingly ignoring the 10 AM release of the surprisingly cheerful Consumer Confidence report. A slow upward trend ensued and lasted until the mid-afternoon, trimming the decline to -0.68%. But the selling resumed and the index ended the day with a 1.34% loss.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 1.83%, unchanged from yesterday’s close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

Here is a daily chart of the SPY ETF, which gives a better sense of investor participation. Volume on today’s selloff was unremarkable (although the storm in the northeast may have trimmed today’s investor activity).

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough. The S&P 500 is 2.92% off its record close on December 29th.

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For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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December Durable Goods: A Major Disappointment

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The January Advance Report on December Durable Goods released on today by the Census Bureau was a major disappointment. Here is the Bureau’s summary on new orders:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $8.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $230.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down four of the last five months, followed a 2.1 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 3.2 percent.

Transportation equipment, also down four of the last five months, led the decrease, $6.8 billion or 9.2 percent to $66.7 billion. Download full PDF

The latest new orders headline number came in at -3.4 percent, well below the Investing.com estimate of 0.5%. This series is up a fractional 0.3 percent year-over-year (YoY). However, if we exclude transportation, “core” durable goods came in at -0.8 percent MoM, also below forecast. Without the volatile transportation series, the YoY core number was up 3.8 percent.

If we exclude both transportation and defense for an even more fundamental “core”, the latest number was down -0.4 percent MoM but up 2.5 percent YoY.

The Core Capital Goods New Orders number (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is another highly volatile series. It was down -0.6 percent MoM, its fourth consecutive month of decline, and up only 1.7 percent YoY.

The first chart is an overlay of durable goods new orders and the S&P 500. We see an obvious correlation between the two, especially over the past decade, with the market, not surprisingly, as the more volatile of the two. Over the past year, the market has certainly pulled away from the durable goods reality, something we also saw in the late 1990s.

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An overlay with unemployment (inverted) also shows some correlation. We saw unemployment begin to deteriorate prior to the peak in durable goods orders that closely coincided with the onset of the Great Recession, but the unemployment recovery tended to lag the advance durable goods orders.

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Consumer Confidence "Rose Sharply" in January

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through January 15. The headline number of 102.9 was an dramatic increase from the revised December final reading of 93.1, an upward revision from 92.6. Today’s number was substantially above the Investing.com forecast of 95.1.

Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board press release.

Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said: “Consumer confidence rose sharply in January, and is now at its highest level since August 2007 (Index, 105.6). A more positive assessment of current business and labor market conditions contributed to the improvement in consumers’ view of the present situation. Consumers also expressed a considerably higher degree of optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market, as well as their earnings.”

Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions was considerably more favorable in January than in December. Those saying business conditions are “good” increased from 24.7 percent to 28.1 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased from 18.9 percent to 16.8 percent. Consumers were also much more positive in their assessment of the job market. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased from 17.2 percent to 20.5 percent. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased from 27.3 percent to 25.7 percent.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook improved in January. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose from 17.8 percent to 18.4 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen declined from 9.9 percent to 7.7 percent.

Putting the Latest Number in Context

Let’s take a step back and put Lynn Franco’s interpretation in a larger perspective. The table here shows the average consumer confidence levels for each of the five recessions during the history of this monthly data series, which dates from June 1977. The latest number is 33.5 points above the recession mindset and 8.7 points below the non-recession average.

The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end I have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The exponential regression through the index data shows…
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite: "Expanded Modestly" in January

Courtesy of Doug Short.

As a resident of the Fifth District, this is a regional manufacturing index I pay close attention to. The Fifth District includes Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is the region’s connection to the nation’s Central Bank.

The complete data series behind the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing report (available here) dates from November 1993. The chart below illustrates the 21st century behavior of the diffusion index that summarizes the individual components.

The January update shows the manufacturing composite at 6, down from 7 last month. Numbers above zero indicate expanding activity. Today’s composite number was spot on the Investing.com forecast of 6.

Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, I like to include a 3-month moving average, now at 5.7, to facilitate the identification of trends.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.

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Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.

Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded at a modest pace in January, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments increased at a faster pace this month, while the volume of new orders remained steady. Manufacturing employment and average wages grew at a slower pace this month. However, the average workweek grew more quickly.

Manufacturers were optimistic about future business conditions. Firms expected faster growth in shipments and new orders in the six months ahead. Additionally, survey participants expected order backlogs to increase and anticipated faster growth in capacity utilization. Expectations were for little change in vendor lead times.

Producers expected faster growth in hiring in the months ahead. They also expected solid growth in average wages and a pickup in the average workweek.

Prices of raw materials and finished goods rose at a slower pace compared to last month. Survey participants expected faster growth in prices paid and prices received over the next six months.

Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.


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Small Caps Outperform.

Courtesy of Declan.

A good start to the week was kicked off with Small Caps adding nearly 1%. The Russell 2000 hasn’t reached a point of challenging major support or resistance, but today’s action cleared the 20-day MA, and accelerated the relative advance against the S&P. Technicals for the index also shifted net bullish.


The S&P held on to its 50-day MA. Although, the 20-day and 50-day MAs have flat-lined. However, it’s nicely set up for bulls tomorrow.

The Nasdaq is close to a challenge of highs, and has the benefit of net bullish technicals. Like the S&P, it experienced a relatively small gain, but it did register an accumulation day.

The Semiconductor Index also performed, and is close to breaking declining resistance.

Tomorrow is looking favorable for bulls, particularly for the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq.  Shorts don’t have much to work with – at least from today’s close.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Are We Now?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: At the request of The Advisory Group in San Francisco, here’s updated comparison of four major cyclical bear markets. The numbers are through the January 23rd close.


This chart series features an overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the market peak in 1929. They are:

  1. The Crash of 1929, which eventually ushered in the Great Depression,
  2. The Oil Embargo of 1973, which was followed by a vicious bout of stagflation,
  3. The 2000 Tech Bubble bust and,
  4. The Financial Crisis following the record high in October 2007.

The series includes four versions of the overlay: nominal, real (inflation-adjusted), total-return with dividends reinvested and real total-return.

The first chart shows the price, excluding dividends for these four historic declines and their aftermath. As of Friday’s close are now 1835 market days from the 2007 peak in the S&P 500.

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Inflation-Adjusted Performance

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Nominal Total Returns

Now let’s look at a total return comparison with dividends reinvested. The recovery following the 1973 Oil Embargo Bear is the top performer, up 57.4% from the 2007 peak, with the current post-Financial Crisis recovery a relatively close second.

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Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Total Returns

When we adjust total returns for inflation, the picture significantly changes. The spread between three of the four markets narrows, and the current real total return has pulled far ahead of the others. Second place, by this metric, goes to the recovery following Crash of 1929.

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Here is a table showing the relative performance of these four cycles at the equivalent point in time.

For a better sense of how these cycles figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets, adjusted for inflation, in the S&P Composite since 1871.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the…
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Zero Hedge

Canada Just "Revised" All Of Its 2014 Job Gains 35% Lower

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Who can forget the farce conducted by Canada's labor statistics office back in August when, as we reported, "Canada Releases Atrocious Jobs Data; Then Revises It Above The Highest Estimate Following Public Outcry." It was then that we got our first hint that when it comes to massaging data, Canada is on par with China and even the US.

Well, Statistics Canada just outdid itself moments ago when it reported that those 185,700 jobs gains it had previously reported for all of 2014... well, it was only kidding, and after a second look, the number has been revis...



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Phil's Favorites

Clash Over Sanctions: Syriza Opposes Sanctions on Russia, Calls Them "Neocolonial Bulimia"; Negotiation Rules

Courtesy of Mish.

The Blowout Victory of Syriza has taken on some new meaning outside of Grexit possibilities.

Please consider Greeks Rebuff EU Call for More Russia Sanctions.
A spokesman for the ruling coalition of Alexis Tsipras, prime minister, said Greece had not approved a statement from EU heads of government that asked their foreign ministers to review further sanctions in response to the latest flare-up of violence in eastern Ukraine, blamed by the US and most European nations on Russian-backed separatists.

The Greek statement raised questions over whether the new government, led by the radical leftist Syriza party, would s...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 01:43:37 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Ouch! See the last point of demand between $60 and $70 In Dec at resistance, now strong selling, Large pattern forecast sees a price under $40

Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 06:54:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Coffe ETF bounces off support, minor spring, if get some strength to $40, a trade may be on!

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 02:28:29 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Asks, 'What's Driving Gold?'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GLD Jim Cramer Shares His Thoughts On Gold, Kinder Morgan And Dollar Tree Mike Khouw Sees Bullish Options Activity In SPDR Gold Trust Making Money With Charles Payne: 11/13/14 (Fox Business)

While other commodity prices have further softened recently, Gold rallied – rising from December low of $1,174/oz. to touch $1,300/oz. Joel Crane, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, expressed pessimism that...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 26th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: With the Fed fading into shadows, investors look overseas for new catalysts

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Last week, the S&P 500 put an end to its streak of weekly losses, despite giving back some gains on Friday. Thursday provided the big catalyst, with the ECB’s announcement of its bold new monetary stimulus plan. Investors were cheered and soothed for the moment. And U.S. fundamentals still look strong. But with Greece trying to turn back time, with volatility elevated (and likely to continue as such), and with the technical situation still dicey, the near term outlook is still worrisome.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart...



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Market Shadows

Are You Trading or Gambling?

ARE YOU TRADING OR GAMBLING?

An interview with John Ehlers of Stock Spotter and Mesa Software

By Ilene

Ilene: John, in our last discussion about trading systems in general and yours in particular (Can trading be reduced to cycles, stresses and vibrations?) you mentioned Monte Carlo simulations and their use in measuring performance. Can you explain more about how you measure the performance of a trading system?

John: Let's start with comparing trading with gambling. The two have several things in common.  In both ...



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Digital Currencies

Jitters After Bitcoin Exchange Suspends Services

So as I was saying yesterday (Bitcoin: The Biggest Clown Show In History?), Bitcoin has several obstacles on the path to potential success as an alternative currency. But I forgot to mention hacking and theft at Bitcoin exchanges and other technical problems. This is related to the lack of government backing and the fact that the value of Bitcoins is based entirely on confidence.  

Jitters After Bitcoin Exchange Suspends Services 

By 



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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