Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Sellers Come In But Semiconductors Gain

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets were set up for sellers with most indices experiencing broad selling. However, the one index which looked set up best for shorts – the Semiconductor Index – actually managed to gain.  Anyone taking up Friday’s short in the latter Index will have been stopped out but another shorting opportunity may have presented itself. Technicals haven’t returned to becoming net bullish but only the ADX remains to shift.

The S&P eased a little lower but didn’t return below what was channel support. Technicals are a mix of bullish (On-Balance-Volume and Stochastics) and bearish (MACD and ADX).  Today’s losses weren’t significant but more is needed if a new downleg is to emerge from here.

The Nasdaq finished flat on the day but it hasn’t yet signaled a swing top as the S&P looks to be suggesting. Again, a bearish ADX is up against bullish MACD, On-Balance-Volume and Stochastics.  Relative performance took another swing higher (a new 6-month high) which suggests if buyers do come back it will be Tech averages to lead them higher (as gains in the Semiconductor Index seem to suggest).

The Russell 2000 experienced broader selling as relative performance accelerated lower. The swing low breakout has not been reversed so bulls still have the edge.

For tomorrow, keep an eye on the swing low breakouts. None have been reversed, although the Dow Jones is looking most vulnerable. Semiconductors have gone against the grain from what had looked a picture-perfect short; further gains will generate a fresh breakout – attracting new longs – alongside yet another round of short covering.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

‘Dead-Cat’ Dies As Stocks’ Six-Day Win-Streak Ends Abruptly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Everything was awesome again and then….

Just as The S&P was heading towards its best 7-day win-streak since 2003, a long-weekend of reflection on reality ruined the party – not helped by Wal-Mart's biggest earnings-driven gap-down in years. (Nasdaq failed to hold green)

Futures show the utter idiocy of yesterday's trading (the plunge at the cash open – that didn't happen)…

The Dow fell back below 25k this afternoon, having failed to hold its 61.8% Fib retracement and testing back to the 50% level…

The S&P fell back below its 50DMA…

Small Caps are back in the red (with Trannies) for 2018…

Ugly day for the FANG stocks..

VIX pushed back above 20…

And for those looking to pin the blame on Wal-Mart, note that The Dow really did not react to WMT's moves (and by the close WMT was just 70 of The Dow's 300-plus point drop…

Treasury yields were all higher from Friday but the last hour of the day, as stocks were slammed, saw bonds bid and the mid- to long-end rally notably…

The belly outperformed with 2s7s down 3bps…

The Dollar Index surged again, erasing its post CPI losses….It seems the holiday in China is helping

Dollar Strength did not help commodities which all fell today (WTI is holding in for the week amid "super-cartel" headlines)…

As gold has sunk the last few days, Bitcoin has rallied…

Bitcoin continued its February bounce-back…

With Bitcoin now up almost 100% from its early-Fed lows…

Today was the first aggregate bond + stock return day in 7 days…

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Saturday, 23 December 2017, 01:43:53 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Holy cow batman

Date Found: Saturday, 23 December 2017, 01:44:22 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Holy double cow batman

Date Found: Saturday, 23 December 2017, 01:45:21 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: SHORT VIX is sooo over done! Take the other side!

Date Found: Saturday, 23 December 2017, 03:58:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Kevin Duffy: Rising Rate Environment Will Crack the Everything Bubble?

Date Found: Sunday, 24 December 2017, 01:15:17 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: FORECASTING – OIL sell off!

Date Found: Sunday, 24 December 2017, 02:00:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Put simply, the bond yields for countries representing over 60% of global GDP are already warning that the bond bubble is in major trouble.

Date Found: Tuesday, 26 December 2017, 06:14:41 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Clif High – Soaring US Economy and More 2018 Predictions

Date Found: Friday, 29 December 2017, 01:04:47 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: ..”As illustrated in the chart below, just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!”… RTT: ECB stopped an euro banking crisis!

Date Found: Friday, 29 December 2017, 02:49:50 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Big rally coming if cycle is correct! This means $USD weakness.

Date Found: Friday, 29 December 2017,…
continue reading

Weekly Market Recap Feb 18, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

BOO YAH! Now that’s more like it!  Your regularly scheduled non stop up market returned this past week with a “5 for 5” week (all 5 days up).  Three of those days were >1% so it was a return of the bulls.  That said to return to the “Trump market” we need to get back to almost no volatility and incremental up days of 0.3% or so 80% of the time.   We noted in last week’s recap the NYSE McClellan Oscillator was still VERY oversold so a “snapback rally” was still on the docket.  That was quite a snapback rally!  So the “easy part” of the bounce just happened – now we will see if we are going to return to a more volatile future or go right back to the sleepy market that tacks on a little 4 out of 5 days.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 4.3% in its best week since January 2013, while the NASDAQ ended up 5.3% in its best weekly percentage gain since December 2011.  Remember that strategist talking “death spiral” last week …. probably related to the people who said Brexit would mean the end of life on earth as we know it a few years ago.

“This is a year of recalibration. In January we recalibrated to higher earnings, and now we’re doing it for higher bond yields, which have been led by potentially higher inflation,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer of BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “Market participants are correctly focusing on inflation, because a rise in inflation can preface an economic slowdown, or an increase in interest rates that could lead to one.”

Another stat about how ridiculous 2017 was in terms of volatility.

Less than halfway through February, the market has already matched the number of 1% moves seen over all of 2017.   Last year, there were four days with a gain of 1% for the S&P (not including sessions like Aug. 22, when the index technically closed 0.99% higher),

continue reading

Rallies Slow As Semiconductors Tag Resistance

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday saw the indices close near the lows of the day as Semiconductors tagged resistance and its 20-day MA. Supporting technicals offered a mix of bullish and bearish markets but shorts have their opportunity with a stop above 1,334.

The S&P edged a close above the bullish mid-line in stochastics along with a ‘buy’ in On-Balance-Volume. However, the index also experienced a relative loss against Small Caps as it struggles to attract new buyers.

The Russell 2000 pushed across the bullish mid-line and is close to a new MACD ‘buy’ trigger. While the Russell 2000 is outperforming against the S&P it’s underperforming against the Nasdaq. However, a push above the 20-day MA may be enough for it to regain overall leadership.

The Nasdaq may be the relative market leader but Tech indices closed lower where Large and Small Caps finished higher. A loss tomorrow will kick off the potential development of a new downward channel; marking a continued expansion of the consolidation.

The longer term charts are more mixed.  Nasdaq breadth metrics (Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA, 200-day MA, Summation Index and Bullish Percents) are caught in a bit of a no-mans land and are not oversold so it’s neither a buy nor a sell.

Similarly, the number of new 52-week highs and lows do not signify a top or a bottom but look to be favoring further weakness as 52-week lows show a gradual increase but as yet haven’t spiked or gained above the number of new highs.

The Dow Transports-Industrials ratio has again tagged its support neckline as it pressures the ‘bear trap’ following last weeks ‘bull trap’. There is a big void down to 0.20s which is likely to coincide with a weakening of the economy (weak transports = weak demand for goods).

The employment rate and Michigan consumer sentiment are also…
continue reading

The Great Bear Market Of 2018

Courtesy of Lance Roberts,

The Bear Market Of 2018

Let’s start with where we left off last weekend:

“Currently, we do not know whether the current corrective action is JUST a normal, healthy correction, or the beginning of something bigger.

BUT – this is the expected correction we have been discussing over the last several weeks. It is also something we had planned for by reducing overweight positions and adding a short-hedge to portfolios. 

With the markets on a short-term sell signal (noted by black vertical dashed lines in the chart above,) the current correctional process is underway. But, with the market now oversold on a VERY short-term basis a counter-trend rally over the next week, or two, should be expected.”

Well, we did indeed get a very nice rally last week with the market breaking above the 50-dma on Thursday.

While the immediate consensus is the “bear market of 2018” is now over, there are several important points about the chart above that should be considered.

  1. Despite the correction, the market did hold support at the 200-dma
  2. The bullish trend line, which goes back to the beginning of 2016, has also not been violated.
  3. However, the upper red “trendline” may provide some overhead resistance temporarily and is worth watching closely. 
  4. While the market did get oversold on a short-term basis, which suggested a bounce was likely, the longer-term overbought condition, and subsequent “sell signal” remain intact. 

The bottom line is that while there was much “angst” in the markets last week, the market has not violated any important trend lines that would suggest the current sell-off is anything more than just an ordinary “garden variety” correction. 

But, I wrote:

“The larger concern currently, is the ‘sell signal’ which has been triggered at abnormally high levels and remains in extremely overbought territory. Such suggests there remains ‘fuel’ for either a ‘deeper correction’ or a ‘consolidation’ of the markets in the weeks ahead to ‘work off’ that ‘overbought’ condition. Historically, markets don’t resolve such conditions by trading ‘sideways.’” 

While we are watching that closely, it certainly doesn’t mean the market can’t rally higher from here. In fact, with the markets clearing the 50-dma on Friday, the upper-trend line…
continue reading

Gold Fundamental Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

gold-fundamental-reviewGold is simple, is goes up in value when paper goes down in value, the force which causes this fact is inflation.

Below we have USCPI YOY% change versus US 5 year interest rate, when the blue line is above the red interest rates are far too low and money is worth less as inflation is destroying it, even more so when the blue line is NOT CONTAINED and is rising (which is very good for gold).

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Gold vs interest rates

Events change things. Trump policies (tax break, big spending) are events. The very simple fundamental fact is inflation is moving from Wall Street to Main Street, and you can expect main street money to start to move (velocity of M2 see chart below) around which will great more inflation.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Here is the same chart as above, but YOY% change. Breaking ZERO line very inflationary. Watch it!

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successful for 70+ years.

NOTE: does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named

Investing Quote…

..”Successful tape reading is a study of force. It requires the ability to judge which side has the greatest of pulling power and one must have the courage to go with that side”..

Richard D Wyckoff

..”It’s easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled”..

Mark Twain

..”The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule”

Warren Buffett

..”A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim”..

Kenneth Chang

Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.

Warren Buffett

Massive Squeeze Sparks Best Week For Stocks In 7 Years As Dollar Crashes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

This week can be summed up thus…

and thus…

Year-to-Date, Gold is leading stocks as bonds get battered…

But it was quite a week for stocks…

  • Nasdaq, S&P – best week since Dec 2011

  • Dow - best week since Nov 2016

  • Small Caps - best week since Dec 2016

  • "Most Shorted" Stocks – biggest weekly short-squeeze since Nov 2016

  • VIX - biggest weekly drop since Nov 2016

  • US Treasury Yield Curve – 2nd biggest weekly flattening since Sept 2011

  • HYG (HY Bond ETF) – best week since Feb 2016 (despite record outflows)

  • Dollar Index – 2nd worst week in 6 months

  • Gold - best week since April 2016

  • Bitcoin - best week in 2 months

Stocks were a one-way bet as mysterious dip-buyers picked up everything…except today's Mueller/Russians drop…

On the day, Nasdaq ended red and Dow and S&P gave back pretty much everything into the bell…

Futures show the real craziness of the swing as Nasdaq surged 10% off last Friday's lows…

In the biggest short-squeeze since the election…

The Dow broke through its Fibonnacci 61.8% retrace before pulling back on Russia indictment headlines…

VIX closed back below 20…

VIX yield curve still inverted (red) but dramatically less backwardated than a week ago (green)

And WTF is going in SVXY!!!!!

But adjusted for the collapse in price…

Overall Vols came back this week but Rate-Vol seems more elevated than norms now…

Treasury yields were mixed on the week with the long-end bid (-3bps) and the rest of the curve bear-flattening…

30Y remains in the range but notably lower in yield on the week…

And 2s30s tumbled…

The Dollar Index had an ugly week…

Dollar's lowest weekly close since Dec 2014…

The Dollar (down), Stocks (up) and Gold (up) were all one big happy family this week…

A weak dollar sparked a bid across all commodities with copper leading the charge…

Copper's huge outperformance this week suggests 10Y Yields should be notably higher…

Cryptos had a great week…

With Bitcoin back above $10,000 once again…

Finally, as Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg notes, the new definition of economic strength when 60% of the incoming US data have come in shy of estimates this month and only 30% have topped expectations.

The Citi surprise index has rolled over to four-month lows.

Imagine what a weak economy must look like!

Rallies Continue But Still Considered Relief Bounces

Courtesy of Declan

The bounces playing out for markets still have the look of relief bounces – at least until technicals confirm net bullishness.

However,  long opportunities present themselves. For the S&P, price action looks to be confirming a double bottom which should be enough to see a challenge of 2,873. Today's volume was lighter which suggests the rally from here will be a struggle but 'climbing the wall of worry' will suit bulls at this point.

The Nasdaq played out a similar move to the S&P as interim Stochastics [39,1] crossed above the bullish mid-line. The index has made back over half its lost ground from 7,506 it's just a question as to whether it can make back the rest of it. The strongest aspect is the accelerating relative performance which marks the favoured rotation of money into the index.

Finally, the Russell 2000 has moved higher in line with other indices. The index had the smallest relative gain on the day and has struggled most over the last 6 months but the successful defense of the 200-day MA will be a hard beat. As a footnote, the Russell 2000 still underperforms against its peers but should this change it will mark a cyclical shift back in favour of speculative stocks.

Going forward it will be important for current rallies to continue and bottom-breakouts don't reverse into mini-'bull traps'. Any close above breakout levels tomorrow should be viewed as a success and a buying opportunity.


Stocks Extend Fastest Bounce In 8 Years As Dollar Crash Continues

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.


Stocks are up five days in a row… Nasdaq up 5.6% this week alone…

For context, this is the Nasdaq's best 5-day rally since 2011!!!!

Small Caps got back to even for 2018 (trannies still red)…Nasdaq is up 5% YTD

Nasdaq Futures are up 10% off the lows…

As "Most Shorted" Stocks soared off the lows… This is the biggest short-squeeze since the election

The Dow tested back below its 50% retracement level but rebounded quickly to a new bounce high…(oh, and Gartman nailed it again)

The S&P closed above its 50DMA…

The Inverse VIX ETF fell today as stocks gained – the first time that has happened since the collapse…

VIX was chaotic around the open today…

Despite stock strength, VIX ended the day modestly higher and we do note a significant divergence

While prices for HY and IG debt have 'stabilized' they are not rallying as exuberantly as stocks… perhaps because they just got hit with the biggest ETF fund outflows ever…

And just in case you needed any more confirmation of how nuts the world has become, Emerging Market High-Yield Debt is now trading at a lower yield than US High-Yield Debt…

Treasuries were notably mixed today with the long-end rallying and short-end higher in yield… On the week 30Y yields remain lower…

Which pushed the yield curve even flatter…

The Dollar Index bounced very briefly on BoJ headlines then tumbled back to its lowest close since Dec 2014 – down 5 days in a row…

Once Europe closed today, the dollar (lower) and gold and stocks (higher) were locked at the hip…

Once the dollar started sliding again this afternoon, commodities were all off to the races…

Cryptocurrencies continued their strong run this week…Bitcoin is up 20% on the week…

With Bitcoin seemingly tied at the hip to Nasdaq and VIX…

As a final reminder, markets are about to somewhat quieter (or at least less liquid) as most of Asia heads into the year of the dog and their celebrations.


Phil's Favorites

Why Altered Carbon is not about the future - nor is any other science fiction


Why Altered Carbon is not about the future – nor is any other science fiction


Courtesy of Gavin Miller, University of Glasgow

The hopes and dreams of the technological movement known as “transhumanism” have been brought into the media spotlight thanks to Netflix’s new science fiction series, Altered Carbon (based on Richard Morgan’s 2001 novel).

Transhumanists believe that our species will soon undergo a technological evolution into a new and superior form. While ...

more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

North Korea Bailed At The Last Minute On Secret Meeting With Pence

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Two weeks ago, followers of geopolitics couldn't help but speculate about the chances of a clandestine meeting between North Korea and the US when the news first broke that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's younger sister, Kim Jo Yang, would be attending the Winter Games in PyeongChang.

After all, US Vice President Mike Pence was already confirmed to be stopping by South Korea during the beginning of the Games as part of a five-day Asia tour. But the White House was quick to repudiate this chatter, announcing that there were no plans for diplomatic talks, though both US and North Korean rhetoric since then has left the door open for such a meeting.

But as it turns out, just as the White House was denying it, plans for talks were being set in motion...

more from Tyler

Chart School

Sellers Come In But Semiconductors Gain

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets were set up for sellers with most indices experiencing broad selling. However, the one index which looked set up best for shorts - the Semiconductor Index - actually managed to gain.  Anyone taking up Friday's short in the latter Index will have been stopped out but another shorting opportunity may have presented itself. Technicals haven't returned to becoming net bullish but only the ADX remains to shift.

The S&P eased a little lower but didn't return below what was channel support. Te...

more from Chart School


Bill Nygren's Stock Picks

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bill Nygren, Harris Associates U.S. equities CIO and Oakmark Funds portfolio manager, shares his top stock picks and long-term investment strategy.

H/T Dataroma

]]> Get The Full Seth Klarman Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Seth Klarman in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Bill Nygren's Stock Picks

Pro: Three hot stocks to watch from ...

more from ValueWalk

Insider Scoop

Stifel Sees Reboot Opportunity For Chipotle, Upgrades From Sell To Hold

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CMG Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For February 20, 2018 The Market In 5 Minutes: Albertsons-R... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Nears $11,000, Here's A History Of Its Biggest Ups And Downs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The cryptocurrency rebound off Feb 5th's bloodbath lows (below $6,000 for Bitcoin) has been impressive, as a 'mysterious' massive buyer 'bought the dip' and momentum took care of the rest.

With Bitcoin now nearing $11,000 (almost a double off the lows), ...

more from Bitcoin


What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

In this March 18, 2011 photo, Cassidy Hempel waved at hospital staff as she was being treated for a rare disorder. Her mother Chris, left, fought to gain permission for an experimental drug. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Morten Wendelbo, Texas A&M University and Timothy Callaghan, ...

more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

more from M.T.M.

Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...

more from Our Members


Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

more from OpTrader


NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

more from Kimble C.S.

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

As Seen On:

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>