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Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 01:43:37 PM

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Comment: Ouch! See the last point of demand between $60 and $70 In Dec at resistance, now strong selling, Large pattern forecast sees a price under $40

Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 06:54:16 PM

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Comment: Coffe ETF bounces off support, minor spring, if get some strength to $40, a trade may be on!

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 01:03:56 PM

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Comment: Apple forming a continuation stepping stone, all the better if suppor holds at $105

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 01:06:40 PM

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Comment: Yhoo still holding above $45, a sharp move up back to $50 would be spring action and very bullish, watch! Stepping stone still healthy.

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 01:10:28 PM

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Comment: JNJ mid range between $100 and $110, stay away from it, has best to wait till price hits support or resistance, mid range price is vulnerable to a push either way.

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 01:30:11 PM

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Comment: Big volume in Nov 2014 has most likely marked the very end of the gold stocks bear market, notice the test late Dec 2014.A-B-C is near complete. What happens next will be of most interest.

Date Found: Wednesday, 21 January 2015, 02:46:55 PM

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Comment: Classic Wyckoff accumulation: Selling climax Feb 2014, Automatic move to Mar 2014, Test Aug 2014, Stop busting Nov 2014 to Dec 2014, Sign of strength in motion, confirmed above $30, good volume on the upswing.

Date Found: Wednesday, 21 January 2015, 02:48:25 PM

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Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Remained Soft in April

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Fifth District includes Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is the region’s connection to the nation’s Central Bank.

The complete data series behind the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing report (available here) dates from November 1993. The chart below illustrates the 21st century behavior of the diffusion index that summarizes the individual components.

The April update shows the manufacturing composite at -3, up from -8 last month. Above zero indicates expanding activity; below zero indicates contraction. Today’s composite number was a tick below the forecast of -2.

Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, the chart below includes a 3-month moving average, now at -3.7, to facilitate the identification of trends.

Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.

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Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.

Manufacturing activity remained soft in April, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments, order backlogs, and the volume of new orders declined, although at a slower pace compared to last month. Manufacturing employment grew mildly, while the average workweek increased and wages rose slightly.

Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

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Is today’s Richmond composite a clue of what to expect in the next PMI composite? We’ll find out when the next Manufacturing ISM Report on Business is released.

Because of the high volatility of this series, we should take the data for any individual month with the proverbial grain of salt.

A Surprising Decline in Consumer Confidence

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through April 17. The headline number of 95.2 was a substantial drop from the revised March final reading of 101.4, a slight revision from 101.3. Today’s number was well below the forecast of 102.5.

Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board press release.

“Consumer confidence, which had rebounded in March, gave back all of the gain and more in April,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “This month’s retreat was prompted by a softening in current conditions, likely sparked by the recent lackluster performance of the labor market, and apprehension about the short-term outlook. The Present Situation Index declined for the third consecutive month. Coupled with waning expectations, there is little to suggest that economic momentum will pick up in the months ahead.”

Putting the Latest Number in Context

The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

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On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 51% since the start of the monthly data series in June 1977. That’s a decline from 63% the previous month.

For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.

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And finally, let’s take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis.

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STTG Market Recap Apr 27, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

A morning gap up led to some sellers showing up as the extended NASDAQ needed to take a bit of a breather.  The S&P 500 fell 0.41% and the NASDAQ 0.63%.   There is a Federal Reserve meeting this week in between all these earning reports so we’ll see if there is any gyration Wednesday – but no action is expected until fall at the earliest in terms of raising interest rates.

Fun fact - founder Jeff Bezos is now richer than 3 of the 4 Walmart heirs.  Bezos’s fortune jumped $4.9 billion to $40 billion making him the world’s 10th-richest person. The jump puts him on par with Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton’s daughter-in-law, Christy Walton, the richest woman in the U.S.  Walton’s sons Jim and Rob are ranked 11th and 12th with $38.5 billion and $37.4 billion respectively. Alice Walton is ranked 15th with $36.7 billion.

Technically the NASDAQ actually put in a nasty reversal where it engulfed the entire prior session, first going up the previous day’s high and then closing below its low.  A lot of times when you see that in a stock it tends to mark a near term high, but we’ll see if it matters to the NASDAQ itself.   The S&P 500 petered out intraday almost exactly at our upper trend line.



It is worth noting the Russell 2000 also had a similar bearish outside reversal day.  Again, we’ll see if this market – which has punished bears non stop for years – cares about that sort of technical indicator in the next few weeks.


The NYSE McClellan Oscillator actually went red today – this is interesting to note.  It speaks (as we noted last week) of a narrowing market.  A lot of large cap NASDAQ type stocks are doing well but quite a few names are struggling too.


This is a nice measurement tool from showing breadth – it shows the % of stocks over the 50 day moving average.  You can see it is not even at 60% even as the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 had been surging.    Compare to the rally in February when it was closer to 80%.  So obviously the S&P 500 itself has been lagging the other indexes and we are not getting gangbuster participation.


Biotech was the culprit for the NASDAQ as it had…
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Sellers HitAppl

Courtesy of Declan.

It was day sellers had control over not long after the cash open. The Russell 2000 broke from the channel in a clean slice which left the index just above the 50-day MA. The index had already suffered a relative loss to the Nasdaq and S&P, and today’s decline just accelerated this decline.

The S&P attempted a breakout but it was quickly rebuffed. However, losses weren’t enough to take it anywhere near support. It will take another 2-3 days of losses to see a test of the trendline, which is the most likely area for a bounce. A close above 2120 would confirm a breakout.

The Nasdaq closed with a bearish engulfing pattern on higher volume distribution. Apple’s afterhours earnings may offer some upside tomorrow, although Apple’s earnings gains were modest. A confirmation test of 5000 would look like a plan for the week.

The Nasdaq 100 also found its resistance at bearish wedge support. The tag of resistance looks ready to come back and tag support.

And the Semiconductor Index sides with bears.

Disappointed my two short plays in the Nasdaq 100 didn’t stick. It was an unfortunate stop exit near the top, although the % loss was small. For those outside of the U.S., you can follow my trades on eToro. Note, my eToro account is a low-key, just-for-fun account. My real money is held in a brokerage account and holds equities and ETFs.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.

Vehicle Miles Traveled: Our Evolving Behavior

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through February.

“Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.8% (6.1 billion vehicle miles) for February 2015 as compared with February 2014.” The less volatile 12-month moving average is up 0.20% month-over-month and 2.36% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is a smaller change, up 0.13% month-over-month and up only 1.23% year-over-year.

Here is a chart that illustrates this data series from its inception in 1971. It illustrates the “Moving 12-Month Total on ALL Roads,” as the DOT terms it. The FRED repository is a convenient source for the data. As we can readily see, the post-recession pattern suggests a structural change in our driving habits.

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The rolling 12-month miles traveled contracted from its all-time high for 39 months during the stagflation of the late 1970s to early 1980s, a double-dip recession era. The most recent decline lasted for 85 months, the trough in November 2011, 48 months from the previous high. The latest data point is a new high.

The Population-Adjusted Reality

Total Miles Traveled, however, is one of those metrics that should be adjusted for population growth to provide the most meaningful analysis, especially if we want to understand the historical context. We can do a quick adjustment of the data using an appropriate population group as the deflator. Let’s use the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Civilian Noninstitutional Population Age 16 and Over (FRED series CNP16OV). The next chart incorporates that adjustment with the growth shown on the vertical axis as the percent change from 1971.

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Clearly, when we adjust for population growth, the Miles-Traveled metric takes on a much darker look. The nominal 39-month dip that began in May 1979 grows to 61 months, slightly more than five years. The trough was a 6% decline from the previous peak.

The population-adjusted all-time high dates from June 2005. That’s approaching a decade ago. The latest data is 7.51% below the…
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Forecasting Q1 GDP: Gazing Into the Crystal Ball

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The big economic number this week will be the Q1 Advance Estimate for GDP on Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET.

What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q1 of 2015? Let’s take a look at the GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

Here’s a snapshot of the full array of WSJ opinions about Q1 GDP with highlighted values for the median (middle), mean (average) and mode (most frequent). In the latest forecast, the median and mean were quite close. The mode (ten of 62 forecasts) was a tad lower at 1.2%, and the second most frequent value, held by eight respondents, was bit higher 1.5%. In essence, 35% of the economists’ forecasts fell within a narrow 0.3% range.

As the visualization above illustrates, despite the cluster in the middle, the overall opinions ranged from a grimly pessimistic 0.0% to a happy outlier at 3.0%.

The consensus is for 1.0%. The consensus is fractionally higher at 1.1%, but its own estimate is for 0.4%.

GDP in 2015

Wednesday’s release of the Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP is, of course, a rear-view mirror look at the economy. The WSJ survey also asks the participants to forecast GDP for the four quarters of 2015. Here is a table documenting the median, mean and extremes for those forecasts.

Interestingly enough (or should I say “boringly enough”), the median for the next five quarters hovers in a tiny 0.2% range and the mean (average) drifts down ever so slightly in a narrow range from 3.1% to 2.7%.

About that Pessimistic 0.0% for Q1 GDP…

The WSJ respondent who put Q1 GDP at 0.0% has a well-known institution, the Atlanta Federal Reserve, in support of the low forecast. See their GDPNow forecasting model, which currently puts Q1 GDP at 0.1%

GDP: A Long-Term Historical Context

For a broad historical context for the latest forecasts, here a snapshot of GDP since Uncle Sam began tracking the data quarterly in 1947. The Q3 WSJ median and mean forecasts are above the 1.6% 10-year moving average and just a tad below the 3.3% Quarterly GDP average since its inception in 1947.

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A More
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S&P 500 Snapshot: A Record Intraday High Precedes a Selloff

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 opened higher and rallied to its record intraday high around 10 AM. After trending sideways for about an hour, the index began a steady selloff its -0.50% intraday low about 15 minutes before the closing bell. Some final trading trimmed the loss for the day to -0.41%.

Today the yield on the 10-year Note closed at 1.94%, up one bp from Friday’s close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

Here is a daily snapshot of SPY ETF, which gives a better sense of investor participation, which was rather light in advance of the mid-week release of the Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP and the latest word from the Federal Open Market Committee.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

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For a longer-term perspective, here is a charts base on daily closes since the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Up Nine Cents

Courtesy of Doug Short.

It’s time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, the price of Regular and primium both rose nine cents. This is the second week of price increases after six weeks of little change. According to, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.42. South Carolina has the cheapest at $2.27.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here’s a visual answer.

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The next chart is a monthly chart overlay of West Texas Light Crude, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO).

WTIC closed today at 56.65 a barrel, well off its 42.43 interim closing low on March 17th and back to levels last seen in December.

The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.

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The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).

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Here are some additional commentaries related to gasoline prices:

Indices Maintain Breakouts But Semiconductors Breakdown

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn’t a whole lot of action during the cash market session as indices held on to most of their premarket gains. The only index to come up short was the semiconductor index. It confirmed a wedge breakdown, and it’s looking increasingly likely a double top is in play. A retest of the 200-day MA would appear to be the favored outcome going forward.

The S&P hasn’t quite negated the ‘bull trap’ and the risk is a triple top if this weakness in the Semiconductor Index spreads to the Nasdaq, Large and Small Caps. The technical picture remains okay plus it looks to be enjoying the start of a relative advantage against the Russell 2000.

The Nasdaq is looking vulnerable given Friday’s action in the Semiconductor Index. Watch for a potential bearish ‘shooting star’.

The Russell 2000 was looking good towards knocking its ‘bull trap’ on Thursday, but Friday’s action left it back at its 20-day MA and near channel support.

For Monday, look for a weak start as indices struggle to breakdown resistance, and the one strong index in the Nasdaq is negatively impacted by the selling in the Semiconductor Index. If sellers do make their presence felt, watch how trendline support plays out.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.


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News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

Sterling takes a tumble on disappointing GDP data (FT)


Sterling has fallen sharply after the first estimate of first quarter UK GDP significantly undershot economists' expectations.

The British pound has lost 50 pips against the US dollar to 1.5182.

U.K. Growth Weakens in Blow to Cameron in Tight Election Battle (Bloomberg)

U.K. economic growth slowed more than economists forecast in the first quarter, dealing a potential blow to Prime Minister David Cameron’s claim that his Conservative Party is best placed to manage the economy’s recovery.

The 0.3 percent pace was just h...

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Zero Hedge

The Baltimore Riots: The Stunning Comments By Orioles Owner's Son

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The day after violent protests left Baltimore burning in the wake of a funeral held for Freddie Gray who died after sustaining a spinal injury while being taken into policy custody, Americans are struggling to explain how the events that transpired on Monday evening are possible in modern day America. While most are united in their condemnation of indiscriminant violence, many still feel a palpable sense of injustice after witnessing multiple instances of alleged police misconduct over the past year. 

In this context we present the following ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Euro breakout helping this hard hit company?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.


Billiton Limitied (BHP) has had a rough 5-years, as its down nearly 50% from its 2011 highs. It’s pattern and the Euro look a good deal alike!

BHP may have created a “W” bottom at falling channel support and it is attempting an upside breakout in the chart above.


Euro has had a rough couple of years as well. On a short-term basis the Euro is attempting to break above short-term falling resis...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 01:43:37 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Ouch! See the last point of demand between $60 and $70 In Dec at resistance, now strong selling, Large pattern forecast sees a price under $40

Date Found: Tuesday, 13 January 2015, 06:54:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Coffe ETF bounces off support, minor spring, if get some strength to $40, a trade may be on!

Date Found: Friday, 16 January 2015, 01:03:56 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Apple forming a continuation stepping sto...

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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Monday April 27, 2015

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Monday April 27, 2015:

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB Confirms Receipt of Preliminary and Conditional Non-binding Proposal for Acquisition of All Shares Issued by Company

The Proposal:
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (OTC: SWTUY) confirmed Monday, that it has received a preliminary and conditional non-binding proposal in relation to a possible offer for all shares issued by the company. The company issued statemetn in repsonse to media reports.

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Sector Detector: Sector rotation model stays bullish, but neutral rankings and technical resistance flash caution

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week, stocks cycled bullish yet again. In fact, the S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and NASDAQ each closed at record highs as investors positioned for the heart of earnings season in the wake of strong reports from some of the Tech giants. Notably, Utilities stocks got some renewed traction as yield-starved investors returned to the sector. Although our trend-following sector rotation model remains bullish, strong overhead technical resistance and neutral rankings in our SectorCast quant model indicate that caution is in order, and this might not be the moment for a major upside breakout, particularly given the expected softne...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of April 27th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Why Bitcoin's male domination will be its downfall

Here's an interesting argument by Felix Salmon, although I think he is taking two correct observations and mistakenly attributing a cause-and-effect relationship to them: Bitcoin is going nowhere because women are not involved.

More likely, in my opinion, women are not involved in bitcoin because bitcoin is going nowhere (and they know it). Or maybe, simply, bitcoin is going nowhere and women are not involved. 

Why Bitcoin's male domination will be its downfall 

By Felix Salmon

Nathaniel Popper’s new book, Digital Gold, is as close as you can get to being the definitive account of the history of Bitcoin. As its subtitle proclaims, the book tells the story of the “misfits” (the first generation of hacker-l...

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Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene


The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.


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Mapping The Market

S&P 500 Leverage and Hedges Options - Part 2

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard.

In my last post (Part 1 of this article), I looked at alternative ETFs that could be used as hedges against the corrections that we have seen during that long 2 year bull run. Looking at the results, it seems that for short (less than a month) corrections, a VIX ETF like VXX could actually be a viable candidate to hedge or speculate on the way down. Another alternative ETF was TMF, a long Treasuries ETF which banks on the fact that when markets go down, money tends to pack into treasuries viewed as safe instruments. In some cases, TMF even outperformed the usual hedging instruments like leveraged ETFs. There could of course be other factors at play since some of 2014 corrections were related to geopolitical events which are certain...

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2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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