Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Submerging Markets

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

After failed breakouts earlier in the year, the charts of the Asian Tiger Cub markets suggest more trouble may lie ahead.

We’ve mentioned several times how price action often times can “predict” the news. That is, the chart of a particular security, index or market may suggest a likely path for prices – bullish or bearish – long before any news comes out and is assigned as the ex post facto cause of the move. Therefore, scanning the charts of various markets can, at times, give us a head’s up on a potential source of positive or negative “news” before the market hits the mainstream radar. Such may be the case currently in the Asian Tiger Cub markets – in a negative way.

In August, we revealed the extensive damage being done in the stock markets of the Asian “Tiger Cubs”, i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. That wasn’t the case earlier in the year as we indicated in that post:

We posted several pieces early in the year on the various emerging markets…as they began the year in promising fashion. While Malaysia was the laggard of the group, Indonesia and the Philippines experienced nice looking breakouts while Thailand appeared poised to do the same. We even suggested that they looked to be in the running early on for “stock market of the year”.

In that August post, introduced the Asian Tiger Cub Composite, an equal-weight composite of the 4 markets. We wrote:

Similar to its components, the Composite started the year out strongly. In late January, the Composite broke above its previous high closing levels from 2013 and 2014 and into all-time high territory. While the breakout looked promising, it did not stick. After reaching its peak in early April, the Composite failed to hold above the previous highs. Recently, it has accelerated its move to the downside. As of today, the Composite is down about 15% from its April highs and sitting at an 18-month low.

We did note that the individual country markets were approaching longer-term potential support areas that could produce a bounce. Indeed the markets bounced soon afterward.

As it is often said (including,…
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Greatest risk to the stock market is?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

greatest-risk-to-the-stock-market-isNope it is not interest rates, nope it is not Donald Trump, it is!

It is the CRUDE OIL crash, simple!

Jim Willie has good comments in the first 40 min of this pod cast.

Energy company …
- Debt is blowing up (See energy element of HYG).
- Hedging at oil $100 is coming to an end.
- Iran coming back to the market, more supply.
- Saudi still providing massive supply.
- Oil tankers holding oil parked in the ocean are coming in to harbor to unload
- US dollar strength supports lower oil prices
- World wide DEMAND slump for energy or deflation.
- More oil being sold outside the US Dollar
- The Oil futures can not be manipulated easily as folks actually request and get delivery


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Crude 1

And the Crude oil Channel break out south is near!

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Crude 2

NOTE: does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named

Investing Quote…

“Stock market technique is not an exact science. Stock (and commodities) prices are made by the minds of men (and women). Mechanical trading methods or mathematical formulas cannot compete with good human market judgment.”..

Richard D Wyckoff

My experience has been that in successful businesses and fund management companies, which performed well over the long-term, some courageous decisions were taken. Courageous fund managers reduce their positions when markets become frothy and accumulate equities when economic and social conditions are dire. They avoid the most popular sectors, which are therefore over-valued, and invest in neglected sectors because being neglected by investors they are by definition inexpensive. The point is that it is very hard and that it takes a lot of courage for a fund manager to avoid the most popular sectors and stocks and to invest in unloved assets. Finally, every investor understands the principle ‘buy low and sell high’, but when prices are low nobody

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Even The Rally In Large Caps Is Narrowing

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

The bull market in U.S. equities has narrowed over the past 6 months as strength has become concentrated in large cap stocks. Recently, strength has narrowed even among those large caps.

One common theme in these pages (and others) over the past 6 months has been the narrowing of participation in the equity bull market. That is, the rally has persisted among the major averages, but fewer and fewer stocks are rallying alongside. This dynamic is possible, of course, due to the uneven weighting of most stock indexes. The largest stocks, either by market cap or by price, have the greatest impact on the performance of the indexes. And those big-cap stocks have shown little propensity thus far to slow down. However, just recently, we are seeing the narrowing of the rally even among these large cap stocks.

We touched on this trend earlier this month, pointing out that the “Equal-Weight” version of the Russell 1000 Large-Cap Index had been lagging behind the “market cap-weighted” version since this past May. That is evidence that even the average large-cap stock has failed to keep up with biggest of those stocks. Further, we illustrated in a chart that while the Russell 1000 cap-weighted Index was back near its May levels, the Equal-Weight Index, i.e., the average stock, had not only lagged, but was down some 6% over that time.

Today’s Chart Of The Day takes that contrast even further by looking at the relative ratio between the Russell 1000 Equal-Weight Index and the cap-weighted version. As of Friday, that ratio had dropped to its lowest level since the inception of the Russell 1000 Equal-Weight Index.


Granted, the Equal-Weight Index has only been around for 5 years. It would have been interesting to note its relative behavior around the top in 2007, and especially during the “great divergence” between 1998 and 2000. Nevertheless, we must read the recent developments in a negative light as the fewer number of stocks that are rallying, the less robust and resilient the rally is likely to be. Sure, it may have little to no impact on those areas that are still working right now. However, when those areas do begin to succumb to selling pressure, there will be precious little left to support…
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Status Quo Maintained – Happy Thanksgiving!

Courtesy of Declan.

Holiday trading kicked into gear, although volume for the S&P managed to push into a technical accumulation day. Things are likely to remain quiet through to next week and any sharp moves at this stage have a high risk of failure.

The top performing index on the day was the Russell 2000. It managed to add another decent gain o keep the string of higher closes running. It didn’t quite close above 1,200, but it may do so Friday (with the aforementioned caveat of holiday trading). Overall action in this index has been positive, and relative performance to other indices continues to improve.

The Nasdaq is also ready to break higher. Yesterday’s good response to the negative news headlines has given bulls confidence.  There was a ‘buy’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume.

The S&P did enough to register an accumulation day, although it looks like it will finish with neutral doji, which has more in common with churning. Despite the accumulation, the MACD hasn’t moved to a ‘buy’ trigger yet.

If there is an index to lead the breakout it would be the Nasdaq 100. While its proximity to resistance makes the risk:reward more attractive to shorts, bulls can be patient waiting for the move above 4,700.

Tomorrow’s Thanksgiving and Friday’s half-day means we are looking to next week before we can consider a concerted response to recent buying.  I’ll be back on Monday. Safe travels for those in transit home for the holiday. Have a great Thanksgiving break…

2-0 Bulls

Courtesy of Declan.

A second day for bulls to shine despite modest end-of-day gains. Some indices did better than others. The Russell 2000 was the key performer. It finished with a MACD trigger ‘buy’ and looks ready to outperform the Nasdaq 100.  This is an important development for bulls looking for more from other indices. A move to challenge – then break – its 200-day MA, would convert August-November action into a healthy basing action.

The Nasdaq registered higher volume accumulation as a brief sojourn below the 20-day MA was reversed. It’s nicely set up for a push to new swing highs.

The S&P lost the most ground intraday, but managed to close positive by the close of business. It did clock a relative loss against the Russell 2000. The MACD hasn’t yet triggered a ‘buy, but is close to doing so.

The Semiconductor Index finished with a bullish engulfing pattern and is continuing to build a solid base. Long term prospects look good, especially as weak copper prices will eventually bring its reward.

For tomorrow, look for bulls to try and make it 3-0.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Wednesday, 04 November 2015, 12:32:23 PM

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Comment: Stanley Druckenmiller : The greatest hedge fund manager of all time is now operating under the assumption that a primary bear market began in July. Due to the massive misallocation of capital in recent years and the long-term demographic headwind going forward, normal investors should probably be in cash.

Date Found: Wednesday, 04 November 2015, 07:36:15 PM

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Comment: Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog – This may well be the most important chart you’ve never seen. Courtesy of longtime analyst-correspondent B.C., this chart reveals that real per capita tax receipts have reliably top-ticked the stock market since 1973.

Date Found: Thursday, 05 November 2015, 03:32:14 PM

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Comment: This is a story that began when The Fed unleashed the $85bn per month QE3.

Date Found: Friday, 06 November 2015, 01:47:11 AM

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Date Found: Friday, 06 November 2015, 08:27:55 PM

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Comment: Jim Rickards: Recession will force Fed to ease in 2016

Date Found: Saturday, 07 November 2015, 12:35:08 PM

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Comment: FACT: a 1% increase in interest rates would increase the interest on the National Debt from $400 billion per year to $600 billion per year, a 50% increase. RTT My bet if rates are raised by the FED it will be at a rate of 0.125% per time , or 0.25% one and done!

Date Found: Tuesday, 10 November 2015, 12:07:35 PM

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Comment: “Historically, the stock and bond markets have done much better when the labor unemployment rate is above 5%…
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Sellers Fail To Break Bulls Resolve

Courtesy of Declan.

Modest losses on the day, but bears were unable to press declines. Volume was down considerably, which given the week that’s in it is not surprising. The Nasdaq finished with a ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume.

The S&P closed with a spinning top, but didn’t lose its 20-day MA. There was a relative loss against the Russell 2000, which given the latter’s action over the last couple of months is really more bullish for the broader rally.

The reason for the relative change in the S&P to the Russell 2000 was the end-of-day gain in the Russell 2000. A move above 1,199 is needed to comfort bulls but today’s action will have helped towards this goal.

The Nasdaq 100 finished with a doji, just shy of negating the ‘bull trap’. Still waiting for the MACD trigger ‘buy’, which will either lead the breakout, or happen because of it.  Shorts will need to be nimble.

For tomorrow, things will likely remain quiet as Thanksgiving approaches. Don’t be surprised if there is a low volume breakout in the Nasdaq 100. It would be the kind of action not unusual for a Black Friday.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.

Modest Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday was a low key affair. Small gains managed to rank as accumulation for the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100, but there could be an argument for profit taking too.

The S&P remains above 20-day and 200-day MAs. Friday did finish with a small spike high but there is demand to quickly pull up on any weakness which may be delivered on Monday.

The Russell 2000 did manage a gain, but because of its relative underperformance and its position below its 200-day MA, bulls will need to do more if money is to rotate back to Small Caps. It’s the only real weakness of the October rally that Small Caps haven’t participated to the same degree as Large Caps or Tech indices.

Shorts may again go looking to the Nasdaq 100. Friday saw a doji just below resistance. However, the index has been here before and has punished shorts. Friday’s accumulation reversed the ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume and the MACD is working towards a strong ‘buy’ signal. While bears might have the easier play on Monday, things are well set for a powerful bullish breakout – likely fueled by shorts scrambling.

The Semiconductor Index should be used as a guide for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, This index continued to trade below its 200-day MA, and finished with an indecisive doji. A confident push above the nearby 200-day MA may be the cue to bring the breakout in the Nasdaq 100.

As we approach months end, the VXN is on course to finish with a doji and set up for a more volatile December. This would run contrary to the seasonal bullish set up for a ‘Santa Rally’. The month isn’t over yet, but this is something to watch.

For Monday, shorts may try (yet again) for the Nasdaq 100, but they may want to wait for the Semiconductor index to weaken before attacking.  Bulls can watch the same Nasdaq 100, particularly if it gets above Friday’s high.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.

Market comments that will interest you

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

market-comments-that-will-interest-youA few points to consider! How long can the bull fire burn! One day the coal runs out!

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Investing Quote…

…”I was brutal in self-analysis. He told his sons his conclusions: “Successful trading is always an emotional battle for the speculator, not an intelligent battle.”…He knew that his biggest enemy was his own emotions.”…

Jesse Livermore

..“One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the significant facts … Then he must be able to operate coldly, clearly, and skilfully on the basis of those facts.” The challenge for the successful speculator is “how to disentangle the cold hard facts from the rather warm feelings of the people dealing with the facts.” Moreover, “if you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right”…

Bernard Baruch

..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate the value of that, but they’re not designed to take care of social needs”..

George Soros

..”Money couldn’t buy friends, but you got a better class of enemy”..

Spike Milligan

..”The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”..

George Soros

Using Elliott Waves: As Simple As A-B-C


Using Elliott Waves: As Simple As A-B-C 

Two resources from Elliott Wave International can help you get started

By Elliott Wave International

When Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered the Wave Principle nearly 70 years ago, he explained how social (or crowd) behavior trends and reverses in recognizable patterns. You can learn to identify these patterns as they unfold in the financial markets, and use them to help anticipate where prices will go next. Elliott Wave International has developed a free comprehensive online course — The Elliott Wave Tutorial: The 10 Lessons now -- which describes these patterns and explains how they relate to one another.

To use the Wave Principle as you analyze the markets, you need a basic understanding of the Elliott method — the rules and guidelines, the literal shape of individual waves, even when the larger trend may turn.

To get you started, we've included an excerpt from the Elliott Wave Tutorial, adapted from Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter, and a short video clip from the live presentation, Tips from a Pro.

Here is your quick lesson excerpted from The Elliott Wave Tutorial:

In his 1938 book, The Wave Principle, and again in a series of articles published in 1939 by Financial World magazine, R.N. Elliott pointed out that the stock market unfolds according to a basic rhythm or pattern of five waves up and three waves down to form a complete cycle of eight waves. The pattern of five waves up followed by three waves down is depicted in Figure 1-2.

One complete cycle consisting of eight waves, then, is made up of two distinct phases, the motive phase (also called a "five"), whose subwaves are denoted by numbers, and the corrective phase (also called a "three"), whose subwaves are denoted by letters. The sequence a, b, c corrects the sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in Figure 1-2.

At the terminus of the eight-wave cycle shown in Figure 1-2 begins a second similar cycle of five upward waves followed by three downward waves. A third advance then develops, also consisting of five waves up. This third advance completes a five wave movement of one degree larger than the waves of which it is composed.

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Zero Hedge

How A Secretive Elite Created The EU To Build A World Government

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Professor Alan Sked - original founder of UKIP, via The Telegraph,

Voters in Britain's referendum need to understand that the European Union was about building a federal superstate from day one

As the debate over the forthcoming EU referendum gears up, it would be wise perhaps to remember how Britain was led into membership in the first place. It seems to me that most people have little idea why one of the victors of the Second World War should have become almost desperate to ...

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Digital Currencies

The Bitcoin Universe Explained

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As evidenced by the Greek, Chinese, and now Argentine 'jumps', the world remains increasingly aware of the inevitable worth of fiat currencies and fears the desperate acts of governments as the react to that reality (and is looking for alternatives).

This infographic explains the wide ranges of the Bitcoin universe, accompanied with quotes from some of its best-known business leaders.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist ...

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Phil's Favorites

Fourth Turning - Social & Cultural Distress Dividing The Nation

Courtesy Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform 

I wrote the first three parts of this article back in September and planned to finish it in early October, but life intervened and truthfully I don’t think I was ready to confront how bad things will likely get as this Fourth Turning moves into the violent, chaotic war stage just over the horizon.

The developments in the Middle East, Europe, U.S., China and across the globe in the last months have confirmed my belief war drums are beating louder, global war beckons, and much bloodshed will be the result. Fourth Turnings proceed at their own pace within the 20 to 25 year crisis framework, but there is one guarantee – they never de-intensify as they progress. Just as Winter gets colder, stormier and more bitter as you proceed from December through February, Fourth Turni...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

The Fed just tweeted a brutal chart showing the sorry state of US department stores (Business Insider)

It's Black Friday, which means American consumers everywhere are knocking down doors in their efforts to take advantage of what they perceive to be a good deal.

Oil prices fall more than 3% as dollar and oversu...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Does Black Friday Matter For Gains The Rest Of The Year?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We are entering one of the most bullish times of the year historically.  As we mentioned last week, the final 30 trading days of the year have been higher each of the last 12 years.


Getting to today, it is Black Friday – the official start to the holiday spending season.  We’ve seen many stats that show this day isn’t quite as important as it once was.  From many sales now starting on Thanksgiving, to Cyber Monday this coming Monday – there are other times people are looking for the best deals.  None the less,...

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Chart School

Greatest risk to the stock market is?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Nope it is not interest rates, nope it is not Donald Trump, it is!

It is the CRUDE OIL crash, simple!

Jim Willie has good comments in the first 40 min of this pod cast.

Energy company ...
- Debt is blowing up (See energy element of HYG).
- Hedging at oil $100 is coming to an end.
- Iran coming back to the market, more supply.
- Saudi still providing massive supply.
- Oil tankers holding oil parked in the ocean are coming in to harbor to unload
- US dollar strength supports lower oil prices
- World wide DEMAND slump for energy or deflation.
- More oil being sold outside the US Dollar
- The Oil futures can not be manipulated easily as folks actually ...

more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sector Detector: Bulls wrest back control of market direction, despite global adversity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Some weeks when I write this article there is little new to talk about from the prior week. It’s always the Fed, global QE, China growth, election chatter, oil prices, etc. And then there are times like this in which there is so much happening that I don’t know where to start. Of course, the biggest market-moving news came the weekend before last when Paris was put face-to-face with the depths of human depravity and savagery. And yet the stock market responded with its best week of the year. As a result, the key issues dominating the front page and election chatter have moved from the economy and jobs to national security and a real war (rather than police ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of November 23rd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli


Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli

Courtesy of Value Walk

1) The shares of one of my largest short positions (~3%), Exact Sciences, crashed by more than 46% yesterday. Below is the article I published this morning on SeekingAlpha, explaining why I think it’s still a great short and thus shorted more yesterday. Here’s a summary:

  • The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force’s Colorectal Cancer Screening Draft Recommendation issued yesterday is devastating for Exact Sciences’ only product, Cologuard.
  • I think this is the beginning of the end for the company.
  • My price target for the stock a year from now is $3, so I shorted more yes...

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Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...

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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 


more from M.T.M.

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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