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The End of QE: Some Common Misunderstandings

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


I have discussed for some time that there are a couple of inherent misunderstandings about the Federal Reserve’s ending of the current large-scale asset purchase program (LSAP), or more affectionately known as Quantitative Easing (QE). The first is “tapering is not tightening” and the second is “interest rates will rise.” Let me explain.

The Federal Reserve has been running extremely “accommodative” monetary policies since the end 2008. The two primary goals of the Federal Reserve have been to artificially suppress interest rates and boost asset prices in “hopes” that an organic economic recovery would take root. As I quoted in “How Effective Has QE Been?”:

“Ben Bernanke, in 2010 following the implementation of QE 2, wrote in an Op-ed for the Washington Post:

“...higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.”

The suppression of interest rates was hoped to spur borrowing and spending by consumers since nearly 70% of the U.S. economy is driven by consumption. However, with consumers already heavily leveraged, and banks skittish to lend, it failed to occur. However, the biggest beneficiary of the extremely low interest rate environment was corporations which relevered their balance sheets to buy back debt and issue dividends. Today, corporate leverage has hit all new highs as noted by Gerard Minack at Minack Advisors.

Consumer credit is also back on the rise driven primarily by student debt and sub-prime auto loans.

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It all ended so well the first time, why not do it again…right?

Unfortunately, for all the ramp up in debt that has occurred, it failed to translate (as hoped) into economic growth.

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What the Federal Reserve did accomplish with trillions of dollars of bond purchases was to enable the deficit spending cycle of the Federal Government. Therefore, the reduction, and eventual extinction, of the current QE program combined with an eventual increase in the overnight lending rate will reduce the excess liquidity that is…
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Market Hunkers Down

Courtesy of Doug Short.

This morning’s release of July Consumer Confidence surprised to the upside, a finding the rather conflicts with the latest Gallup survey of Economic Confidence. But in the real world, the key headlines were about the announcement of sanctions against Russia. The S&P 500 made a shallow arc higher in the morning, hitting its intraday high shortly after the Consumer Confidence report was released. It then sold off in a couple of waves to close at its -0.45% intraday low.

The hunkering down in today’s US market is probably the result of more than the Russian sanction. There’s no doubt a bit of nervousness prior to tomorrow’s peak at Q2 GDP, not to mention the annual revisions for the past three years (in addition to some additional tweaking back to 1999). Will we see confirmation of the mainstream view that the Q1 contraction in GDP was a winter-weather fluke?

And tomorrow we also get the text of the most recent FOMC meeting. Stay tuned!

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.47%, down 3 bps from the previous close. It is now 3 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 6.58% year-to-date.

Volume rose today, no doubt triggered by some increased anxiety over the Europe and tomorrow’s GDP.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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Thoughts Ahead of Tomorrow’s Advance Estimate of Q2 GDP

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The big economic announcement tomorrow with be the Advance Estimate of Q2 GDP. Recall that the Advance Estimate of 0.1% for Q1 GDP underwent two downward revisions: -1.0% in the first revision and -2.9% in the second revision. Mainstream economists have been generally optimistic that the contraction in Q1 GDP was attributable to an unusually severe winter and that Q2 would show a significant bounce. The Investing.com estimate is for 3.0%. Briefing.com has a consensus of 3.2%, and its own forecast is for an even stronger 3.7%.

The July Wall Street Journal survey of economists also sees a major Q2 rebound in GDP. The mean (average) survey response was 3.1%, and the median and mode (middle and most frequent number) came in at 3.0%. As a chart of the 48 survey responses illustrates, there were some outliers at both ends.

To clarify: The conventional expression of quarterly GDP is the compounded annual rate of change of the real (inflation-adjusted) quarterly value. In other words, it’s what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters.

For some historical context, consider a couple of facts: The 10-year GDP moving average is 1.6 percent. Its average since the end of the last recession is 2.1 percent.

Real Final Sales: Some Economic Suspense

A metric that will be particularly interesting is the Q2 Advance Estimate for Real Final sales of domestic product. This is a measure of GDP less change in private inventories; equivalently, it is the sum of Personal Consumption Expenditures, private fixed investment, government consumption expenditures and gross investment, and net exports of goods and services.

The two thumbnails below show Year-over-Year Real Final Sales since the implementation of quarterly GDP in 1947. The one on the left highlights the value the quarter a recession starts. The one on the right highlights the value the quarter before a recession starts. You can click on either thumbnail and then use the links at the top to toggle between the two.

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There have…
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Consumer Confidence Surges; Highest Since the 2007 Market Peak

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through July 17. The headline number of 90.9 was an improvement over the revised June final reading of 86.4, an upward revision from 85.2. Today’s number dramatically beat the Investing.com forecast of 85.3. The current level is the highest since October 2007, the month the S&P 500 peaked prior to the Great Recession.

Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board press release.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer confidence increased for the third consecutive month and is now at its highest level since October 2007 (95.2). Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions, while brighter short-term outlooks for the economy and jobs, and to a lesser extent personal income, drove the gain in expectations. Recent improvements in consumer confidence, in particular expectations, suggest the recent strengthening in growth is likely to continue into the second half of this year.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in July. Those claiming business conditions are “good” edged down to 22.7 percent from 23.4 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” was virtually unchanged at 22.7 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was more favorable. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 15.9 percent from 14.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” remained unchanged at 30.7 percent.

Consumers’ expectations were more optimistic in July. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 20.2 percent from 18.4 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen held steady at 11.5 percent. Consumers were more positive about the outlook for the labor market. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 19.1 percent from 16.3 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 16.4 percent from 18.4 percent. Slightly more consumers expect their incomes to grow, 17.3 percent in July versus 16.7 percent in June, while those expecting a drop in their incomes declined to 11.0 percent from 11.4 percent.

Putting the Latest Number in Context

Let’s take a step back and put Lynn Franco’s interpretation in a larger perspective. The table here shows the…
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What happened the last time someone teased a bear?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

what-happened-the-last-time-someone-teased-a-bearTime for a funny, can’t be serious all the time!

Is it really smart to poke a Russian bear ?? Seriously!!



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, taken together, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.”..

Jesse Livermore


..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..

Anon








Gasoline Price Update: Down Another Five Cents

Courtesy of Doug Short.

It’s time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, Regular and Premium both dropped another five cents, the fourth week of price declines. Regular is up 35 cents and Premium 34 cents from their interim lows during the second week of last November.

According to GasBuddy.com, two states (Hawaii and Alaska) have Regular above $4.00 per gallon, down from three last week, and three states (California, Oregon, Washington) are averaging above $3.90, unchanged from last week. South Carolina has the cheapest Regular at $3.24.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here’s a visual answer.

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The next chart is a weekly chart overlay of West Texas Intermediate Crude, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO). WTIC closed today at 101.57, down from 102.80 this time last week.

The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.

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The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).

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Here are some additional commentaries related to gasoline prices:





S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Goes Nowhere

Courtesy of Doug Short.

This week will see a hurricane of economic data — GDP, Personal Consumption and Outlays, the July Employment Report, a couple of key Consumer Confidence metrics and of course Wednesday’s FOMC Statement. Today we got the quiet before the potential storm (to extend the weather metaphor). The S&P 500 sold off to is -0.56% intraday low in the first 45 minutes of trading. It then reverse course to its 0.16% early afternoon high before drifting to its 0.03% closing gain. Today’s price range was at the 49th percentile of the 143 market days this year. Essentially the index went nowhere on average price volatility.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.50%, up 2 bps from the previous close. It is now 6 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.06% year-to-date.

Volume on the SPY ETF was at summer doldrum levels, 14% below its 50-day moving average.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Stage Afternoon Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

Morning action left the Russell 2000 staring at a new swing low, and the S&P at a channel break. However, buyers returned in the afternoon to return the S&P to support and the Russell 2000 scrambling back to its 200-day MA.  Meanwhile, the Semiconductor index finished with a bullish doji on the 50-day MA. Given bears failure, bulls have an opportunity to press their advantage in the Semiconductor Index and S&P.

The 608 low in the Semiconductor Index may see a test and perhaps an intraday violation, but there is a fairly decent long side opportunity available, if the 50-day MA can hold.


The S&P has the least risky longside opportunity to work with. The intraday violation of the channel isn’t ideal, but it does offer a place for stop; the second doji low from early July at 1,952 is another.

The Russell 2000 had the most bearish action on the day, but there is a chance for a mini-double bottom (‘Eve-and-Adam’) with the 200-day MA available for bulls.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq finished at the 20-day MA (and neckline support). Again, an opportunity for bulls, particularly with the Semiconductor index looking well placed for a bounce.

For tomorrow, look for afternoon strength to continue into the morning. Important will be tomorrow afternoons’ action as bulls will need to resist any attempt by bears to return markets below Monday’s close prices: a higher close tomorrow will confirm ‘buy’ signals from the various doji in the market.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





NYSE Margin Debt Surged in June; Leading Indicator for a Market Correction?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through June. I’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers.


The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today’s dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. I picked 1995 as an arbitrary start date. We were well into the Boomer Bull Market that began in 1982 and approaching the start of the Tech Bubble that shaped investor sentiment during the second half of the decade. The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak.

Debt hit a trough in February 2009, a month before the March market bottom. It then began another major cycle of increase. Margin debt hit an all-time high in February of this year.

The latest Margin Data

Unfortunately, the NYSE margin debt data is about a month old when it is published. Following its February peak, real margin declined sharply for two months, -3.9% in March -3.2% in April and was flat in May. It then jumped 5.7% in June, its largest gain in 17 months. The latest data puts this metric 1.8% off its February peak.

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The next chart shows the percentage growth of the two data series from the same 1995 starting date, again based on real (inflation-adjusted) data. I’ve added markers to show the precise monthly values and added callouts to show the month. Margin debt grew at a rate comparable to the market from 1995 to late summer of 2000 before soaring into the stratosphere. The two synchronized in their rate of contraction in early 2001. But with recovery after the Tech…
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Real Median Household Income Rose 0.69% in June

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Summary: The Sentier Research monthly median household income data series is now available for June. The nominal median household income was up $506 month-over-month but up only $1,791 year-over-year. Adjusted for inflation, it was up $368 MoM and only $710 YoY. The real numbers equate to a 0.69% MoM increase and a 1.34% YoY increase. June marks the second month of real increases following two months of declines.

In real dollar terms, the median annual income is 6.6% lower (about $3,800) than its interim high in January 2008.

Background on Sentier Research

The traditional source of household income data is the Census Bureau, which publishes annual household income data in mid-September for the previous year.

Sentier Research, an organization that focuses on income and demographics, offers a more up-to-date glimpse of household incomes by accessing the Census Bureau data and publishing monthly updates. Sentier Research has now released its most recent update, data through June (available here). The numbers in their report differ from the Census Bureau’s in three key respects:

  1. It is a monthly rather than annual series, which gives a more granular view of trends.
  2. Their numbers are more current. The Census Bureau’s 2012 data will remain its latest until September 2014.
  3. Sentier Research uses the more familiar Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the inflation adjustment. The Census Bureau uses the little-known CPI-U-RS (RS stands for “research series”) as the deflator for their annual data. For more on that topic, see this commentary.

Monthly Median Household Income Since 2000

The first chart below is an overlay of the nominal values and real monthly values chained in June 2014 dollars. The red line illustrates the history of nominal median household, and the blue line shows the real (inflation-adjusted value). I’ve added callouts to show specific nominal and real monthly values for January 2000 start date and the peak and post-peak troughs.


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In the latest press release, Sentier Research spokesman Gordon Green summarizes the recent data:

“The lack of significant change in real median annual household income between May and June 2014 underscores the uneven trend in the series since the low-point reached in August 2011. Our time series charts


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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Insider Scoop

Orbitz Worldwide Annouces Large Stakeholder Will Sell Shares In Public Offering

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related OWW Morning Market Losers UPDATE: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage On Orbitz Powerful Proxy Adviser Blasts Target Board Over Breach (Fox Business)

In a press release Wednesday, Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE: OWW) announced its largest stakeholder will sell 20 million shares of the company.

Orbitz released a separate press release stating mostly ...



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Zero Hedge

Our Totalitarian Future - Part 1

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“On the first Christmas Day the population of our planet was about two hundred and fifty millions — less than half the population of modern China. Sixteen cen­turies later, when the Pilgrim Fathers landed at Plym­outh Rock, human numbers had climbed to a little more than five hundred millions. By the time of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, world pop­ulation had passed the seven hundred million mark. In 1931, when I was writing Brave New World, it stood at just under two billions. Today, only twenty-seven yea...



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Chart School

The End of QE: Some Common Misunderstandings

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

I have discussed for some time that there are a couple of inherent misunderstandings about the Federal Reserve's ending of the current large-scale asset purchase program (LSAP), or more affectionately known as Quantitative Easing (QE). The first is "tapering is not tightening" and the second is "interest rates will rise." Let me explain.

The Federal Reserve has been running extremely "accommodative" monetary policies since the end 2008. The two primary goals of the Federal Reserve have been to artificially suppress interest rates and boost asset prices in "hopes" that an organic economic recovery would take root. As I quoted in "How E...



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Phil's Favorites

Oh Yeah, About That Con Con Con

Oh Yeah, About That Con Con Con

Courtesy of Lee Adler 

As usual, the Conference Board and all the major media press release repeaters put a positive spin on the highest reading of Consumer Confidence (aka the Con Con Con) since October 2007. None of the media echo chamber reports pointed out that October 2007 was the beginning of the worst bear market in US stocks since 1973-74. So I thought it important that the issue be given a little perspective (as I did recently with the Thompson Rhoiders Michigan Con Index).

First things first, the Con Con Con is an amalgamation of the results of two survey questions presented to “consumers” (aka real people). One question asks...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

Kellogg Call Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

Shares in packaged foods producer Kellogg Co. (Ticker: K) are in positive territory on Monday afternoon, trading up by roughly 0.20% at $65.48 as of 2:20 p.m. ET. Options volume on the stock is well above average levels today, with around 12,500 contracts traded on the name versus an average daily reading of around 1,700 contracts. Most of the volume is concentrated in September expiry calls, perhaps ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report set for release ahead of the opening bell on Thursday. Time and sales data suggests traders are snapping up calls at the Sep 67.5, 70.0 and 72.5 strikes. Volume is heaviest in the Sep 72.5 strike calls, with around 4,600 contracts traded against sizable open interest of approximately 11,800 contracts. It looks like traders paid an average premium of $0.37 per contrac...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bold bulls dare meek bears to take another crack

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Once again, stocks have shown some inkling of weakness. But every other time for almost three years running, the bears have failed to pile on and get a real correction in gear. Will this time be different? Bulls are almost daring them to try it, putting forth their best Dirty Harry impression: “Go ahead, make my day.” Despite weak or neutral charts and moderately bullish (at best) sector rankings, the trend is definitely on the side of the bulls, not to mention the bears’ neurotic skittishness about emerging into the sunlight.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, incl...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 28th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW in the comments below each post. 

Our weekly newsletter Stock World Weekly is ready for your enjoyment.

Read about the week ahead, trade ideas from Phil, and more. Please click here and sign in with your PSW user name and password. Or take a free trial.

We appreciate your feedback--please let us know what you think in the comment section below.  

...

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Digital Currencies

BitLicense Part 1 - Can Poorly Thought Out Regulation Drive the US Economy Back into the Dark Ages?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton.

An Op-Ed piece penned by Veritaseum Chief Contracts Officer, Matt Bogosian

This past weekend (despite American Airlines' best efforts), Reggie and I made it to the Second Annual North American Bitcoin Conference in Chicago. While there were some very creative (and very ambitious) ideas on how to try to realize the disruptive Bitcoin protocol, one of the predominant topics of discussion was New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky's proposed Bitcoin regulations (the BitLicense proposal) - percieved by many participants at the event as an apparent ...



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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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