Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday’s small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the ‘bull trap’ in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,






The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it’s suggesting the S&P will follow suit. Technicals are holding up well.





The Nasdaq had small losses, but volume did climb to register as distribution. However, the breakout is holding, and it has room to run to support.





For tomorrow, look for an acceleration lower in the Russell 2000. The S&P may attract late-player Shorts looking to see if this index follows the lead in the Russell 2000.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Minor Day for Markets

Courtesy of Declan.

No need to say much for today as very little happened in the market. The Russell 2000 attempted to undo yesterday’s breakdown, but hadn’t recovered enough by end of day to negate it.






The only index to make any kind of move today was the Semiconductor Index. It recovered all of yesterday’s losses as it looks to return a challenge of 944 highs.  This index has been the star performer for 2016, but can it maintain this form into 2017?





For tomorrow, look for the same breakout opportunities in Large Caps as were on offer yesterday. Shorts may use today’s small gain back to former support – turned resistance – in the Russell 2000 as a chance to enter a position. Stops go on a move above 1,377.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Russell 2000 Breaks Lower

Courtesy of Declan.

In the end, it was Theresa May and not Trump which saw the Russell 2000 cut through support and confirm the earlier ‘bull trap’.  This change coincided with a ‘sell’ trigger in +DI/-DI. Only stochastics are hanging on to its ‘buy’ signal.






The S&P experienced heavier volume distribution, but there wasn’t a big percentage loss, nor was there a break from the consolidation range





It was a similar story for the Nasdaq. It took a greater relative loss than the S&P, but it didn’t challenge support from the breakout.  However, look for such a test tomorrow.  All supporting technicals remain in the green.





With the bank holiday weekend over, traders can again look to push the Trump/May agenda. Shorts can remain tied to the Russell 2000 – shorting rallies as they emerge.  Longs should to Large Cap indices and the short covering which is likely to follow once trading range resistance is breached.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

djia

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged a bit (mostly on the NASDAQ) i.e. tech.  That began late the prior week and continues this past week.  Big cap “technology/momentum” stocks saw a return of traders as these names had been ignored in the first 2 months of the rally.  The strong start in the NASDAQ may bode well for the year:

The Nasdaq Composite  has gained 2.76% in its first five trading days of 2017, marking the gauge’s best start to a year since 2006, when it jumped 5.14%.   When the Nasdaq Composite ends a year’s first five sessions with a gain, it has finished the full year in the black 73% of the time, or in 22 out of 30 years.

amzn fb tsla

Fun fact:  The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% was back on October 11th when the index dropped 1.24%.  The current 64 trading day streak without a 1%+ decline is the second longest of the current bull market which began in March 2009.

The only major economic report was Friday’s December retail sales:

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in December, less than had been expected, while holiday sales were up a better-than-expected 4%.   Excluding the large auto sector that accounts for 20% of overall retail business, sales rose a disappointing 0.2% in the final month of the year, the


continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

djia

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged a bit (mostly on the NASDAQ) i.e. tech.  That began late the prior week and continues this past week.  Big cap “technology/momentum” stocks saw a return of traders as these names had been ignored in the first 2 months of the rally.  The strong start in the NASDAQ may bode well for the year:

The Nasdaq Composite  has gained 2.76% in its first five trading days of 2017, marking the gauge’s best start to a year since 2006, when it jumped 5.14%.   When the Nasdaq Composite ends a year’s first five sessions with a gain, it has finished the full year in the black 73% of the time, or in 22 out of 30 years.

amzn fb tsla

Fun fact:  The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% was back on October 11th when the index dropped 1.24%.  The current 64 trading day streak without a 1%+ decline is the second longest of the current bull market which began in March 2009.

The only major economic report was Friday’s December retail sales:

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in December, less than had been expected, while holiday sales were up a better-than-expected 4%.   Excluding the large auto sector that accounts for 20% of overall retail business, sales rose a disappointing 0.2% in the final month of the year, the


continue reading





Russell 2000 Comes Back From The Brink

Courtesy of Declan.

There was no wiggle room for the index heading into Friday as it managed to claw back the ‘breakdown’. It went one step better and posted one of the better performances on Friday.  While the index has come back from support, it hasn’t yet challenged the consolidation ‘bull trap’ – but look for this on Monday.






What will help the Russell 2000 is the new closing high for the Nasdaq. The latter index wasn’t able to post more than a 0.5% gain, but it did keep the rally from November lows intact and this is good news for bulls looking for similar action from Large and Small Caps.





The S&P had a quiet day as it did all it could to bump against resistance without breaking it. The MACD is still on a ‘sell’ trigger despite the relatively neutral price action. Given what happened in the Nasdaq on Friday the likelihood the S&P will follow with new highs on Monday is strong.





For Monday, bulls should watch the S&P for its potential to follow the Nasdaq higher. If there is a weak open, then the Russell 2000 becomes the watch index for a return to (and below) consolidation support.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Richard Wyckoff logic not working, this maybe why? PART 5

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

richard-wyckoff-logic-not-working-this-maybe-why-part-5We all know change comes to everything, seeing it, timing it, surviving it time and time again is the real trick to life.



Previous Post:

Richard Wyckoff logic not working, this maybe why? PART 1

Richard Wyckoff logic not working, this maybe why? PART 2

Richard Wyckoff logic not working, this maybe why? PART 3

Richard Wyckoff logic not working, this maybe why? PART 4



More from RTT Tv










NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars, I want to tell you this:  It never was my thinking that made the big money for me.  It was always my sitting.  Got that?  My sitting tight!”…



Jesse Livermore





..”Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway”..



Warren Buffett





..”Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it”..



Warren Buffett





..“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.”..



Joe Granville





The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.



Basketball Legend Michael Jordan.











Are Oil Speculators About To Get Lit Up Again?

 

Are Oil Speculators About To Get Lit Up Again?

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

image

Speculators in crude oil futures are back near their “obscene” record net-long position set just prior to the 2014 collapse in oil prices.

When we started posting our charts on social media and writing this blog some three years ago, one of the most popular early posts dealt with trader positioning in crude oil futures. That was at the beginning of July 2014, and to this day it remains one of our most popular posts. The title of the post was “Large Speculators Net-Long To Obscene Extreme”. And to look at the chart was to instantly understand the impetus behind the title.

Chart from July 3, 2014 post:

image

 

At the time, the trajectory of the record net-long position in crude oil futures by Non-Commercial Speculators (and by extension, the record net-short position by Commercial Hedgers) had gone fully parabolic. In the case of the Speculators, prior to 2013, their largest ever net-long position in crude oil futures was 276,000 contracts, and prior to 2011, the record was 176,000 contracts. At the end of June 2014, their net-long position was a record-smashing 459,000 contracts. On the flip side, Hedgers’ net-short position had grown to a record 492,000 contracts.

Why was that important? As we have explained on many occasions in these pages, this data from the CFTC’s Commitment Of Traders (COT) report provides a very useful look at the positioning of various groups of traders. The 2 biggest groups are Non-Commercial Speculators and Commercial Hedgers:

  • Non-Commercial Speculators are by and large commodity pools and hedge funds that exist mainly to trade the market long and short. These funds are normally trend-following entities. And while they can be on the correct side of a long trend, at extremes they are considered “dumb money” as they are typically “off-sides”.
  • Commercial Hedgers are typically financial firms and institutions involved directly in an industry reliant upon a particular commodity. Most of the time, they are truly “hedging” within the commodity market, primarily taking the other side of the Speculators’ trades.


continue reading





Russell 2000 Under Pressure

Courtesy of Declan.

During early afternoon trading it was looking like the Russell 2000 was going to break support and leave a ‘bull trap’.  While the ‘bull trap’ remains in play the loss of support hasn’t been confirmed which would show a reversal. However, this is acting as a lead index and will determine what may come for the Nasdaq and S&P.






The Nasdaq tagged breakout support in what was a text book example of a breakout retest. This doesn’t mean such support will hold, but it’s a healthy play for those looking for higher prices.





The S&P is range bound and enjoyed a recovery today, but not enough to drive a break of resistance.  Given action in the Russell 2000 it’s unlikely to make that move higher, but if the Russell 2000 can hold support it may be able to lead higher.





For tomorrow, keep an eye on the Russell 2000. Small Caps are an important lead index, and what happens here will have relevance for other indices. There isn’t much direction from Tech and Large Cap indices, so it’s up to Small Caps to make the move.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Bulls Make Back Early Afternoon Losses

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another good day for bulls, particularly for the S&P. An acceleration in weakness brought about in late morning action was reversed with steadying buying over the last two hours of trading.




The S&P has been range bound since early December. Today’s action didn’t change that, but it suggests the breakout – when it comes – will be higher.





The Nasdaq also felt pressure with it own sell off. Volume was down on recent weeks, but it was enough to keep bulls in control.





The Russell 2000 had a quiet day, registering just a 0.05% gain. The best of the news was it not drifting back to support, where the risk of a major breakdown lurks.





For tomorrow, look for bulls to continue their good work.  The Russell 2000 looks least likely to do anything exciting, but the S&P (and Dow) is well positioned for a breakout.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Another Day One Action: White House Climate Change Web Page Disappears

Courtesy of Mish.

Donald Trump is following through on his pledge to act quickly. In yet another day one action, White House Climate Change Webpage Disappears After Trump’s Inauguration.

Less than an hour after President Trump took the oath of office on Friday, the White House’s webpage on climate change disappeared, the latest sign that the new administration will divert resources – and attention – from the issue.

The removal of the page from the White House’s website came around the same time the site and other Executive Branch digital platforms were overhauled to reflect the new administration.

Trump has l...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Gold Pops; Banks, Bonds, & Greenback Drop As Trump Takes Office

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Quite a week... this seemed appropriate...

Gold remains 2017's big winner with bonds and stocks close to unch...

Trump's actual swearing in (and speech) sparked a notable drop in stocks and pop in VIX...But in a desperat attempt to keep The Dow green, VIX was monkey-hammered

But VIX ended the we...



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

RT News In Hot Water: Reporter Covering Protests Of Trump's Inauguration Arrested

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

RT News found itself in the headlines earlier this week when Facebook slapped restrictions on its account and Twitter tool Dataminr denied it service. Now one of its reporters is behind bars after being arrested while covering the protests at President Donald Trump’s inauguration earlier today.

RT News reporter caught in the fray

RT America reporter Alexander Rubinstein was arrested in Washington, D.C. near McPherson Square at the corner of 12th and L St. NW, where he happened to be in a crowd of protesters at the time police officers encircled a group of them. According to ...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Mr. President you want this to hold, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Consumer Confidence of late has continued to move higher, now reaching above the highs hit back in 2007. Long-Term S&P 500 returns are far below historical norms, when confidence is this high. We are not saying that high consumer confidence means the market is at a top!

Below is a look at the Advance/Decline line on a short-term basis.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts; It could be important for support to hold, of this bearish rising wedge above.

...

more from Kimble C.S.

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil and Trump: Russians full of optimism in Davos (Reuters)

Twelve months ago, the mood of the Russian delegation at the World Economic Forum in Davos was distinctly gloomy, with oil prices near 12-year lows below $30 per barrel and Western sanctions depressing their economy and financial markets.

The Mortgage Market’s $1 Trillion Pocket of Worry (The Wall Street Journal)

Bonds backed by certain risky single-family mortgages topped $1 trillion for the first time in November, crossing that threshold amid rising warnings for one corner of the housing market.

...



more from Paul

Chart School

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,


The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it's suggesting the S&P will follow suit....

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

more from Our Members

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



more from Bitcoin

Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

more from M.T.M.

Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

more from Biotech

Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>