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Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? At this point, over five-and-a-half years later, the S&P 500 has set an inflation-adjusted record high based on monthly averages of daily closes.

Let’s examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical trends in market performance. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted series is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends. Market historians call these “secular” bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum “long period of time” (in contrast to aeternus “eternal” — the type of bull market we fantasize about).

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The key word on the chart above is secular. The implicit rule I’m following is that blue shows secular trends that lead to new all-time real highs. Periods in between are secular bear markets, regardless of their cyclical rallies. For example, the rally from 1932 to 1937, despite its strength, remains a cycle in a secular bear market. At its peak in 1937, the index was 29% below the real all-time high of 1929. For a scholarly study of secular bear markets, which highlights the same key turning points, see Russell Napier’s Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms.

If we study the data underlying the chart, we can extract a number of interesting facts about these secular patterns (note that for the table below I am including the 1932-1937 rally):

The annualized rate of growth from 1871 through the end of January (the latest month for which we have an inflation rate) is 2.25%. If that seems incredibly low, remember that the chart shows “real” price growth, excluding inflation and dividends. If we factor in the reinvested dividend yield, we get an annualized return of 6.86%. Yes, dividends make a difference. Unfortunately that has been less true during the past three decades than in earlier times. When we let Excel draw a regression through the data, the slope is an even lower annualized rate of 1.77% (see the regression section below for further explanation).

If we added in the value lost from inflation, the “nominal” annualized return comes to 9.06% — the number commonly reported in the popular press. But for a more…
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PCE Price Index: Inflation Slips Further Below the Fed Target

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Personal Income and Outlays report for January was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The latest Headline PCE price index year-over-year (YoY) rate is 0.22%, down from 0.77% the previous month. The Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) at 1.31% is little changed from the previous month’s 1.34% YoY.

As I’ve routinely observed, the general disinflationary trend in core PCE (the blue line in the charts below) must be perplexing to the Fed. After years of ZIRP and waves of QE, this closely watched indicator consistently moved in the wrong direction. In April of 2013, the Core PCE dropped below 1.4% and hovered in a narrow YoY range of 1.23% to 1.35% for twelve months. The subsequent months saw a higher plateau approaching 1.5%, but the most recent months appear to be trending back toward the lower range.

The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. I’ve highlighted the 12 months consecutive when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low, a level to which it has returned in the last two months.

The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. I’ve also included an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed’s preferred indicator for gauging inflation. I’ve highlighted 2 to 2.5 percent range. Two percent had generally been understood to be the Fed’s target for core inflation. However, the December 2012 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low FFR and quantitative easing) are in place.

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I’ve calculated the index data to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation…
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Is the Stock Market Cheap?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month, which is 2,082.20. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 2,104.50. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor’s latest earnings spreadsheet.


● TTM P/E ratio = 21.1 (21.4)
● P/E10 ratio = 27.2 (27.5)


The Valuation Thesis

A standard way to investigate market valuation is to study the historic Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio using reported earnings for the trailing twelve months (TTM). Proponents of this approach ignore forward estimates because they are often based on wishful thinking, erroneous assumptions, and analyst bias.

TTM P/E Ratio

The “price” part of the P/E calculation is available in real time on TV and the Internet. The “earnings” part, however, is more difficult to find. The authoritative source is the Standard & Poor’s website, where the latest numbers are posted on the earnings page.

The table here shows the TTM earnings based on “as reported” earnings and a combination of “as reported” earnings and Standard & Poor’s estimates for “as reported” earnings for the next few quarters. The values for the months between are linear interpolations from the quarterly numbers.

The average P/E ratio since the 1870′s has been about 15. But the disconnect between price and TTM earnings during much of 2009 was so extreme that the P/E ratio was in triple digits — as high as the 120s — in the Spring of 2009. In 1999, a few months before the top of the Tech Bubble, the conventional P/E ratio hit 34. It peaked close to 47 two years after the market topped out.

As these examples illustrate, in times of critical importance, the conventional P/E ratio often lags the index to the point of being useless as a value indicator. “Why the lag?” you may wonder. “How can the P/E be at a record high after the price has fallen so far?” The explanation is simple. Earnings fell faster than price. In fact, the negative earnings of 2008 Q4 (-$23.25) is something that has never happened before in the history of the S&P 500.

Let’s look at a chart…
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ISM Manufacturing Index: ISM Manufacturing Index: Slowest Growth in Thirteen Months

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for February. The latest headline PMI was 52.9 percent, a decline from the previous month’s 53.5 percent and below the Investing.com forecast of 53.0. This was the lowest PMI since January 2014, thirteen months ago.

Here is the key analysis from the report:

“The February PMI® registered 52.9 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from January’s reading of 53.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 52.5 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the reading of 52.9 percent in January. The Production Index registered 53.7 percent, 2.8 percentage points below the January reading of 56.5 percent. The Employment Index registered 51.4 percent, 2.7 percentage points below the January reading of 54.1 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 52.5 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points above the January reading of 51 percent. The Prices Index registered 35 percent, the same percentage as in January, indicating lower raw materials prices for the fourth consecutive month. Comments from the panel express a growing level of concern over the West Coast dock slowdown, negatively impacting exports and imports and requiring workarounds and added costs.”

Here is the table of PMI components.

I’m reluctant to put too much focus on this index for various reasons, but they are essentially captured in Briefing.com’s Big Picture comment on this economic indicator.

This [the ISM Manufacturing Index] is a highly overrated index. It is merely a survey of purchasing managers. It is a diffusion index, which means that it reflects the number of people saying conditions are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse. It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse. It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms. The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.

The chart below shows the Manufacturing Composite series, which stretches back to 1948. I’ve highlighted the eleven recessions during this time frame and…
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March 4th Webinar: The Myth of the Most Efficient Market

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Upcoming Complimentary APViewpoint Events

Presenter: Jim O’Shaughnessy

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 – 4:15 p.m. EST

Assets in index funds and ETFs are reaching all-time highs, driven in part by the belief that stock selection strategies have become a fool’s errand for investors who are trying to outperform the market. In this webinar, Jim O’Shaughnessy will share empirical research conducted over 80 years to debunk this myth and identify time-tested principles that allow investors to consistently beat the market.

During the webinar he will:

  • highlight the benefits and flaws of indexing, with a particular focus on unraveling the myth of market efficiency among U.S. large caps;
  • offer his perspective on the evolution of factor-based investing as an alternative to indexing; and
  • share research that combines the best aspects of both active and passive investing into a complete investment strategy.

Jim will discuss research on factors-based stock selection where quality, valuation and yield criteria generate returns that dramatically and consistently outperform the U.S. large-cap market on an absolute-and risk-adjusted return basis. There will be plenty of time for Q&A, and after the session Jim will be available to discuss its content on APViewpoint.

Pfau

Jim O’Shaughnessy
O’Shaughnessy Asset Management

Jim O’Shaughnessy is the Chairman and CEO of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management (OSAM) and also serves at the firm’s Chief Investment Officer. Prior to founding OSAM, Jim was the Director of Systematic Equity at Bear Stearns Asset Management and a Senior Managing Director of the firm. Long recognized as one of America’s leading financial experts and a pioneer in quantitative equityanalysis, he has been called a “world beater” and a “statistical guru” by Barron’s and in 2009 Forbes.com included Jim in a series on “Legendary Investors.” He is the author of four highly acclaimed books on investing.

You must be a member of APViewpoint to register for this event.
APViewpoint Events are webinars that offer advisors the opportunity to gain insights on the markets, financial planning and practice management from some of the industry’s most respected thought leaders.




The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a update in response to a standing request from a couple of sources that I also share with regular visitors to my Advisor Perspectives pages.

The request is for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite. In response, I maintain two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which is usually just refer to as the CPI). The charts below have been updated through the December 31, 2014 close.

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The charts require little explanation. So far the 21st Century has not been especially kind to equity investors. Yes, markets usually do bounce back, but often in time frames that defy optimistic expectations.

The charts above are based on price only. But what about dividends? Would the inclusion of dividends make a significant difference? I’ll close this post with a reprint of my latest chart update of the S&P 500 total return on a $1,000 investment at the 2000 high.

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Total return, including reinvested dividends, certainly looks better, but the real (inflation-adjusted) purchasing power of that $1,000 is currently only 342 dollars above break-even. That equates to a 1.98% annualized real return.





Regression to Trend: A Perspective on Long-Term Market Performance

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Quick take: At the end of January the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 96% above its long-term trend, up from 91% above trend the previous month.


About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let’s apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question.

Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. I’ve using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.

The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope, incidentally, represents an annualized growth rate of 1.75%.

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The peak in 2000 marked an unprecedented 147% overshooting of the trend — nearly double the overshoot in 1929. The index had been above trend for two decades, with one exception: it dipped about 13% below trend briefly in March of 2009. But at the beginning of March 2015, it is 96% above trend, up from 91% above trend the month before. In sharp contrast, the major troughs of the past saw declines in excess of 50% below the trend. If the current S&P 500 were sitting squarely on the regression, it would be around the 1060 level. If the index should decline over the next few years to a level comparable to previous major bottoms, it would fall to the low 500 range.

Incidentally, the standard deviation for prices above and below trend is 40.6%. Here is a close-up of the regression values with the regression itself shown as the zero line. I’ve highlighted the standard deviations. We can see that the early 20th century real price peaks occurred at around the second deviation. Troughs prior to 2009 have been more than a standard deviation below trend. The peak in 2000 was well north of 3 deviations, and the 2007 peak was above the two deviations — as is our current level.


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Light selling, but not enough to threaten breakouts

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday’s GDP data didn’t rock the boat too much, and by the close losses were light and inline with profit taking.

The only warning sign was a ‘sell’ trigger in the Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks Above the 50-day MA. Unusual in that the Nasdaq has been the high flyer of the indices in recent weeks. Breadth metrics for the Nasdaq need to be watched closely should such weakness expand.

Friday’s reversal in the Nasdaq also occurred at the 10% moving average envelope to the 200-day MA. A similar occurrence in November marked a high of an eventual 2 1/2 month consolidation, and was followed by a period of weakness which lasted a couple of weeks

The S&P lost a handful of points, but not enough to hurt it.

The Russell 2000 also enjoyed a healthy sell off. Not enough to damage the rally, but enough to shake some weak hands. Plenty of support available below should selling pick up.

Hopefully, tomorrow will be more exciting.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





World Markets Update: The Rally Continues with a Strong Eurozone Skew

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Five of the eight indexes on my world market watch list posted weekly gains, with Germany’s DAX as the top performer, up 3.18%. Japan’s Nikkei and France’s CAC 40 were in a near dead heat for second place with China’s Shanghai Composite not far behind after emerging from its long Lunar New Year break. Hong Kong’s Hang Send and India’s SENSEX finished the week a hair below flat. The US’s S&P 500 was the weakling of the bunch with its 0.27% loss.

Here is an overlay of the eight for a sense of their comparative performance so far in 2015.

Here is a table of the 2015 data performance, sorted from high to low, along with the interim highs for the eight indexes. All eight indexes are in the green, with the two Eurozone indexes up nearly 16 percent.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks (through year’s end) for these eight major indexes. I’ve also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.

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A Longer Look Back

Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX and Hang Seng) up to their 2007 peaks is evident, and the SENSEX remains by far the top performer. The Shanghai, in contrast, formed a perfect Eiffel Tower from late 2006 to late 2009.


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March 4th Webinar: The Myth of the Most Efficient Market

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Upcoming Complimentary APViewpoint Events

Presenter: Jim O'Shaughnessy

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 – 4:15 p.m. EST

Assets in index funds and ETFs are reaching all-time highs, driven in part by the belief that stock selection strategies have become a fool's errand for investors who are trying to outperform the market. In this webinar, Jim O'Shaughnessy will share empirical research conducted over 80 years to debunk this myth and identify time-tested principles that allow investors to consistently beat the market.

During the webinar he will:

  • highlight the benefits and flaws of indexing, with a particular focus on unraveling the myth of market efficiency among U.S. large caps;
  • offer his perspective on the evolution of factor-based investing as an alternative to indexing; and
  • share research that combines the best aspects of both active and passive investing into a complete investment strategy.

Jim will discuss research on factors-based stock selection where quality, valuation and yield criteria generate returns that dramatically and consistently outperform the U.S. large-cap market on an absolute-and risk-adjusted return basis. There will be plenty of time for Q&A, and after the session Jim will be available to discuss its content on APViewpoint.

Pfau

Jim O'Shaughnessy
O'Shaughnessy Asset Management

Jim O'Shaughnessy is the Chairman and CEO of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management (OSAM) and also serves at the firm's Chief Investment Officer. Prior to founding OSAM, Jim was the Director of Systematic Equity at Bear Stearns Asset Management and a Senior Managing Director of the firm. Long recognized as one of America's leading financial experts and a pioneer in quantitative equityanalysis, he has been called a "world beater" and a "statistical guru" by Barron's and in 2009 Forbes.com included Jim in a series on "Legendary Investors." He is the author of four highly acclaimed books on investing.

 

You must be a member of APViewpoint to register for this event.

 

APViewpoint Events are webinars that offer advisors the opportunity to gain insights on the markets, financial planning and practice management from some of the industry's most respected thought leaders.




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

As Greek Default Fears Return, Government Considers "Borrowing" Pensions To Repay IMF

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Greek short-term default risk jumped over 300bps today putting the odds of a restructuring at 50-50 within the next year as the warnings we issued last week with regard Greece's imminent default on its IMF loan loom. Seeking to reassure its lenders (and avoid yet more capital flight), Reuters reports the Greek government said it was "exploring solutions," including delaying payments to suppliers or try to raise up to 3 billion euros by borrowing from state entit...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Phil's Favorites

Interview with Mint.com - I Give ALL The Answers

Interview with Mint.com – I Give ALL The Answers

Courtesy of Michael of Bankers Anonymous 

Finance website Mint.com asked me some good questions for their blog. You can visit them there or enjoy the repost below.

[Mint.com] As a former Wall Street insider, what do you think is the average perso...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 2nd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

ISM Manufacturing Index: ISM Manufacturing Index: Slowest Growth in Thirteen Months

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for February. The latest headline PMI was 52.9 percent, a decline from the previous month's 53.5 percent and below the Investing.com forecast of 53.0. This was the lowest PMI since January 2014, thirteen months ago.

Here is the key analysis from the report:

"The February PMI® registered 52.9 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from January’s reading of 53.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 52.5 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the reading of 52.9 percent in January. The Production Index registered 53.7 percent, 2.8 percentage points below the January reading of 56.5 percent. The Employme...

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Insider Scoop

Wunderlich Securities Downgrades Markwest Energy Partners LP On Current Valuation

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MWE Credit Suisse Lowers Price Targets On 8 MLPs Stephens & Co. Upgrades MarkWest Energy Partners To Overweight MarkWest Energy Partners Is A Perfect Income Growth Play (Seeking Alpha)

In a report published Monday, Wunderlich Securities analyst Jeff Birnbaum downgraded the rating on Markwest Energy Partners LP (NYSE: ...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: Coal

Kimble Charts: Coal

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble's chart for KOL shows a recently beaten down ETF struggling to pull itself up from the ashes. As the chart shows, KOL has recently drifted down to levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008-9.

Bouncing or recovering with energy in general, coal prices appear to have stabilized in the short-term. Reflecting coal prices, KOL has traded between $13.45 and $19.75 during the past year. Bouncing from lows, KOL traded around 2% higher yesterday from $14.26 to $14.48 on high volume. It traded another 3.6% higher in after hours to $15, possibly related to ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Sector rankings stay neutral with few bullish catalysts on horizon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks are hitting new highs across the board, even though earnings reports have been somewhat disappointing. Actually, to be more precise, Q4 results have been pretty good, but it is forward guidance that has been cautious and/or cloudy as sales into overseas markets are expected to suffer due to strength in the US dollar. Healthcare and Telecom have put in the best results overall, while of course Energy has been the weakling. Still, overall year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 during 2015 is expected to be about +8%.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 cha...



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Digital Currencies

MyCoin Exchange Disappears with Up To $387 Million, Reports Claim

Follow up from yesterday's Just the latest Bitcoin scam.

Hong Kong's MyCoin Disappears With Up To $387 Million, Reports Claim By  

Reports are emerging from Hong Kong that local bitcoin exchange MyCoin has shut its doors, taking with it possibly as much as HK$3bn ($386.9m) in investor funds.

If true, the supposed losses are a staggering amount, although this estimate is based on the company's own earlier claims that it served 3,000 clients who had invested HK$1m ($129,000) each.

...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



more from Caitlin

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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