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Gasoline Price Update: Down Another Five Cents

Courtesy of Doug Short.

It’s time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, Regular and Premium both dropped another five cents, the fourth week of price declines. Regular is up 35 cents and Premium 34 cents from their interim lows during the second week of last November.

According to GasBuddy.com, two states (Hawaii and Alaska) have Regular above $4.00 per gallon, down from three last week, and three states (California, Oregon, Washington) are averaging above $3.90, unchanged from last week. South Carolina has the cheapest Regular at $3.24.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here’s a visual answer.

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The next chart is a weekly chart overlay of West Texas Intermediate Crude, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO). WTIC closed today at 101.57, down from 102.80 this time last week.

The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.

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The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).

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Here are some additional commentaries related to gasoline prices:





S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Goes Nowhere

Courtesy of Doug Short.

This week will see a hurricane of economic data — GDP, Personal Consumption and Outlays, the July Employment Report, a couple of key Consumer Confidence metrics and of course Wednesday’s FOMC Statement. Today we got the quiet before the potential storm (to extend the weather metaphor). The S&P 500 sold off to is -0.56% intraday low in the first 45 minutes of trading. It then reverse course to its 0.16% early afternoon high before drifting to its 0.03% closing gain. Today’s price range was at the 49th percentile of the 143 market days this year. Essentially the index went nowhere on average price volatility.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.50%, up 2 bps from the previous close. It is now 6 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.06% year-to-date.

Volume on the SPY ETF was at summer doldrum levels, 14% below its 50-day moving average.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Stage Afternoon Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

Morning action left the Russell 2000 staring at a new swing low, and the S&P at a channel break. However, buyers returned in the afternoon to return the S&P to support and the Russell 2000 scrambling back to its 200-day MA.  Meanwhile, the Semiconductor index finished with a bullish doji on the 50-day MA. Given bears failure, bulls have an opportunity to press their advantage in the Semiconductor Index and S&P.

The 608 low in the Semiconductor Index may see a test and perhaps an intraday violation, but there is a fairly decent long side opportunity available, if the 50-day MA can hold.


The S&P has the least risky longside opportunity to work with. The intraday violation of the channel isn’t ideal, but it does offer a place for stop; the second doji low from early July at 1,952 is another.

The Russell 2000 had the most bearish action on the day, but there is a chance for a mini-double bottom (‘Eve-and-Adam’) with the 200-day MA available for bulls.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq finished at the 20-day MA (and neckline support). Again, an opportunity for bulls, particularly with the Semiconductor index looking well placed for a bounce.

For tomorrow, look for afternoon strength to continue into the morning. Important will be tomorrow afternoons’ action as bulls will need to resist any attempt by bears to return markets below Monday’s close prices: a higher close tomorrow will confirm ‘buy’ signals from the various doji in the market.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





NYSE Margin Debt Surged in June; Leading Indicator for a Market Correction?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through June. I’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers.


The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today’s dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. I picked 1995 as an arbitrary start date. We were well into the Boomer Bull Market that began in 1982 and approaching the start of the Tech Bubble that shaped investor sentiment during the second half of the decade. The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak.

Debt hit a trough in February 2009, a month before the March market bottom. It then began another major cycle of increase. Margin debt hit an all-time high in February of this year.

The latest Margin Data

Unfortunately, the NYSE margin debt data is about a month old when it is published. Following its February peak, real margin declined sharply for two months, -3.9% in March -3.2% in April and was flat in May. It then jumped 5.7% in June, its largest gain in 17 months. The latest data puts this metric 1.8% off its February peak.

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The next chart shows the percentage growth of the two data series from the same 1995 starting date, again based on real (inflation-adjusted) data. I’ve added markers to show the precise monthly values and added callouts to show the month. Margin debt grew at a rate comparable to the market from 1995 to late summer of 2000 before soaring into the stratosphere. The two synchronized in their rate of contraction in early 2001. But with recovery after the Tech…
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Real Median Household Income Rose 0.69% in June

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Summary: The Sentier Research monthly median household income data series is now available for June. The nominal median household income was up $506 month-over-month but up only $1,791 year-over-year. Adjusted for inflation, it was up $368 MoM and only $710 YoY. The real numbers equate to a 0.69% MoM increase and a 1.34% YoY increase. June marks the second month of real increases following two months of declines.

In real dollar terms, the median annual income is 6.6% lower (about $3,800) than its interim high in January 2008.

Background on Sentier Research

The traditional source of household income data is the Census Bureau, which publishes annual household income data in mid-September for the previous year.

Sentier Research, an organization that focuses on income and demographics, offers a more up-to-date glimpse of household incomes by accessing the Census Bureau data and publishing monthly updates. Sentier Research has now released its most recent update, data through June (available here). The numbers in their report differ from the Census Bureau’s in three key respects:

  1. It is a monthly rather than annual series, which gives a more granular view of trends.
  2. Their numbers are more current. The Census Bureau’s 2012 data will remain its latest until September 2014.
  3. Sentier Research uses the more familiar Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the inflation adjustment. The Census Bureau uses the little-known CPI-U-RS (RS stands for “research series”) as the deflator for their annual data. For more on that topic, see this commentary.

Monthly Median Household Income Since 2000

The first chart below is an overlay of the nominal values and real monthly values chained in June 2014 dollars. The red line illustrates the history of nominal median household, and the blue line shows the real (inflation-adjusted value). I’ve added callouts to show specific nominal and real monthly values for January 2000 start date and the peak and post-peak troughs.


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In the latest press release, Sentier Research spokesman Gordon Green summarizes the recent data:

“The lack of significant change in real median annual household income between May and June 2014 underscores the uneven trend in the series since the low-point reached in August 2011. Our time series charts


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An lndustral Reversal at Hand?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Industrial ETF XLI may have created a “Bearish Wick” on a monthly basis at its Fibonacci 161% Extension level at (1) last month. Over the past year, XLI has reflected relative strength compared to the broad market. Over the past 30 & 90 days, XLI has shown a bit of relative weakness.

The table below lists the Top Ten holdings of XLI that might be worth watching in the very near future.

Support line (2) in the next chart is drawn off “Monthly Closing” prices dating back to the 2009 low. At this time, five year support remains in place. If XLI remains weak, compared to the S&P 500, how it handles this key support line could have much to do with the direction of the broad market months from now.

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Keep your eye on XLI to see how it handles support (if hit) and to see if a “Turn Around” pattern took place last month.

Kimble Charting Solutions
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Vehicle Miles Driven: A Structural Change in Our Driving Behavior

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through May.

Travel on all roads and streets changed by 0.9% (2.4 billion vehicle miles) for May 2014 as compared with May 2013 (see report). The less volatile 12-month moving average is up 0.07% month-over-month. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is down 0.01% month-over-month and down 0.3% year-over-year.

Here is a chart that illustrates this data series from its inception in 1970. I’m plotting the “Moving 12-Month Total on ALL Roads,” as the DOT terms it. See Figure 1 in the PDF report, which charts the data from 1990. My start date is 1971 because I’m incorporating all the available data from earlier DOT spreadsheets. As we can readily see, the post-recession pattern suggests a structural change in our driving habits.

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The rolling 12-month miles driven contracted from its all-time high for 39 months during the stagflation of the late 1970s to early 1980s, a double-dip recession era. The most recent decline has lasted for 78 months and counting — a new record, but the trough to date was in November 2011, 48 months from the all-time high.

The Population-Adjusted Reality

Total Miles Driven, however, is one of those metrics that should be adjusted for population growth to provide the most meaningful analysis, especially if we want to understand the historical context. We can do a quick adjustment of the data using an appropriate population group as the deflator. I use the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Civilian Noninstitutional Population Age 16 and Over (FRED series CNP16OV). The next chart incorporates that adjustment with the growth shown on the vertical axis as the percent change from 1971.

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Clearly, when we adjust for population growth, the Miles-Driven metric takes on a much darker look. The nominal 39-month dip that began in May 1979 grows to 61 months, slightly more than five years. The trough was a 6% decline from the previous peak.

The population-adjusted all-time high dates from…
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The Problem with Reality in 2014

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


Earlier this month, Jeremy Siegel, a well-known “bull” on CNBC, took to the airwaves to predict the Dow Jones Industrial Average would go beyond 18,000 by the end of this year. Acknowledging overpriced valuations on the key stock indices are being ignored, he argued historical valuations should be taken with a grain of salt and nothing more. (Source: CNBC, July 2, 2014.)

Sadly, it’s not only Jeremy Siegel who has this point of view. Many other stock advisors who were previously bearish have thrown in the towel and turned bullish towards key stock indices—regardless of what the historical stock market valuation tools are saying.

We are getting to the point where today’s mentality about key stock indices—the sheer bullish belief stocks will only move higher—has surpassed the optimism that was prevalent in the stock market in 2007, before stocks crashed.

At the very core, when you pull away the stock buyback programs and the Fed’s tapering of the money supply and interest rates, there is one main factor that drives key stock indices higher or lower: corporate earnings. So, for key stock indices to continue to make new highs, corporate profits need to rise.

But there are two blatant threats to companies in the key stock indices and the profits they generate.

First, the U.S. economy is very, very weak. While we saw negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) just downgraded its U.S. economic projection. The IMF now expects the U.S. economy to grow by just 1.7% in 2014. (Source: International Monetary Fund, July 24, 2014.) One more negative quarter of GDP for the U.S., and we are in a technical recession. We’re already halfway there!

If the U.S. economy does not improve, companies on key stock indices will have troubles selling their goods and services, and their corporate earnings will suffer. It is that simple.

Next, the global economy is in trouble here in 2014. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is breaking down to new lows. The BDI suggests demand in the global economy is reaching multiyear lows—since the beginning of the year, the BDI is down 65%.


Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

An economic slowdown in…
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Daily Market Commentary: Bears Flash Intentions

Courtesy of Declan.

Bears made further inroads to the Semiconductor index, and Russell 2000, which delivered knock on results elsewhere.  The Semiconductor index had the worst of the action, slicing through its 50-day MA with a near 2% loss. If bulls wanted value a quick return above the 50-day MA would set up a ‘bear trap’ and may generate enough juice for a challenge of 650.


The Russell 2000 is playing for a swing low retest, although the 200-day MA may provide a long opportunity (stops on loss of 1,131). Technicals with the bears, but not oversold.

The S&P did lose some ground, but not enough to take it out of its bullish channel.  Aggressive buyers may look to buy this support test.

Weakness in the Semiconductor Index translated to the Nasdaq with a gap down to the 20-day MA. Luckily, this is also a neckline for a small double bottom which had been built off the 20-day MA. The doji marks the fine balance between bulls and bears; weakness in the Semiconductor Index is not having the expected effect – which is bullish for the Nasdaq.

While bears edged Friday, there is still enough for bulls to work with.  The S&P, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq all have viable support levels to work long positions from.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Tracking the Market with Social Media

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment Indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has moved to TradeFollowers.com and been renamed Trade Followers Momentum. When we first conceived the idea to capture stock market information from the Twitter stream, we thought we’d mostly find opinions and future projections. As a result, we thought we were creating a sentiment indicator. After two years of studying the underlying data, we believe we’ve created a momentum indicator that captures a herding effect by market participants.

The Trade Followers algorithm looks for actions, events, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, observations, and opinions from market participants who use many different investment and trading techniques. When market participants tweet positive messages from their own analysis of the stock market or individual stocks the momentum indicator moves up. As more people tweet constructive information an uptrend in momentum is created. Conversely, as negative analysis builds it turns the momentum of the herd lower.

We use the trend of seven day momentum to create short term signals for the stock market and individual stocks. Currently, momentum from the Twitter stream for the S&P 500 Index is signaling a consolidation warning. This warning came after an uptrend in momentum that lasted over two months. The recent rise in price has brought momentum back to a down trend line. As long as the down trend in momentum stay intact the consolidation warning will remain open.

Momentum from the StockTwits stream has broken its downtrend line which shows more optimism from the StockTwits community and clears its consolidation warning. So we currently see a divergence from traders on Twitter and those on StockTwits.

Support and resistance levels generated from the Twitter stream for the S&P 500 index (SPX) have compressed to a 50 point range. There are many calls for SPX to climb to 2000, but very few above that level. This makes 2000 on SPX a resistance level. Below the market the recent low at 1955 is getting almost all of the attention which makes it support.

Sector relative strength is confirming the StockTwits community with leading sectors showing support from market participants and defensive sectors lacking support.

The overall picture from social media is mostly positive. Although Twitter Momentum is still…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Insider Scoop

Report: IBM Rejects Offer For Chip Operations

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related IBM Blackberry Attempts To Rebound From IBM/Apple Deal The 10 Most-Respected Corporate Brands Can the iRally Endure? (Fox Business)

International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) rejected an offer for part of its semiconductor manufacturing operations, according to unnamed sources cited by ...



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Zero Hedge

Photos Emerge Of 10 "Active Militia Teams" Securing The US-Mexico Border

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With 1000s of illegal immigrants crossing the US-Mexico border every day (perhaps even more now some of the border has been washed away), the government quietly dumping them in Tennessee (among other places), and current (recently constructed border protection infrastructure already breaking down), it appears the American people are taking matters into their own hands. Photos showing dozens of members of militia groups on the U.S.-Mexico border carrying semi-automatic rifles a...



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Phil's Favorites

Calling All Munitions and Fighter Plane Experts: Is German Pilot Claim "Air-to-Air Attack" Brought Down MH17 Credible?

Courtesy of Mish.

Peter Haisenko, a German aviation expert made a claim yesterday that air-to-air fire brought down MH17.

The above link is to a translated page.

As a lay person, it's easy to be persuaded by such arguments. Moreover, even if Haisenko is an aviation expert, one has to wonder about his munitions expertise.

I have some questions later, but first let's take a look at some images and a translation of Haisenko's thesis.

Haisenko provides this ...



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Chart School

Gasoline Price Update: Down Another Five Cents

Courtesy of Doug Short.

It's time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, Regular and Premium both dropped another five cents, the fourth week of price declines. Regular is up 35 cents and Premium 34 cents from their interim lows during the second week of last November.

According to GasBuddy.com, two states (Hawaii and Alaska) have Regular above $4.00 per gallon, down from three last week, and three states (California, Oregon, Washington) are averaging above $3.90, unchanged from last week. South Carolina has the cheapest Regular at $3.24.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here's a visual answer.

...

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Option Review

Kellogg Call Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

Shares in packaged foods producer Kellogg Co. (Ticker: K) are in positive territory on Monday afternoon, trading up by roughly 0.20% at $65.48 as of 2:20 p.m. ET. Options volume on the stock is well above average levels today, with around 12,500 contracts traded on the name versus an average daily reading of around 1,700 contracts. Most of the volume is concentrated in September expiry calls, perhaps ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report set for release ahead of the opening bell on Thursday. Time and sales data suggests traders are snapping up calls at the Sep 67.5, 70.0 and 72.5 strikes. Volume is heaviest in the Sep 72.5 strike calls, with around 4,600 contracts traded against sizable open interest of approximately 11,800 contracts. It looks like traders paid an average premium of $0.37 per contrac...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bold bulls dare meek bears to take another crack

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Once again, stocks have shown some inkling of weakness. But every other time for almost three years running, the bears have failed to pile on and get a real correction in gear. Will this time be different? Bulls are almost daring them to try it, putting forth their best Dirty Harry impression: “Go ahead, make my day.” Despite weak or neutral charts and moderately bullish (at best) sector rankings, the trend is definitely on the side of the bulls, not to mention the bears’ neurotic skittishness about emerging into the sunlight.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, incl...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 28th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW in the comments below each post. 

Our weekly newsletter Stock World Weekly is ready for your enjoyment.

Read about the week ahead, trade ideas from Phil, and more. Please click here and sign in with your PSW user name and password. Or take a free trial.

We appreciate your feedback--please let us know what you think in the comment section below.  

...

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Digital Currencies

BitLicense Part 1 - Can Poorly Thought Out Regulation Drive the US Economy Back into the Dark Ages?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton.

An Op-Ed piece penned by Veritaseum Chief Contracts Officer, Matt Bogosian

This past weekend (despite American Airlines' best efforts), Reggie and I made it to the Second Annual North American Bitcoin Conference in Chicago. While there were some very creative (and very ambitious) ideas on how to try to realize the disruptive Bitcoin protocol, one of the predominant topics of discussion was New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky's proposed Bitcoin regulations (the BitLicense proposal) - percieved by many participants at the event as an apparent ...



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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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