Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Minor Changes: Yesterday’s and Weekend Comments Remain Valid

Courtesy of Declan.

I don’t want to overplay today’s action as little changed in the broader scheme of things. Days like today are welcomed and help shape up swing trades for those trading in near term timeframes.




The tight doji in the S&P could be used for a swing trade; buy a break of the high/short loss of low – stop on flip side. High whipsaw risk but look for 3:1 risk:reward and maybe trail stops if deciding to go with partial profits.






Tech averages are still set up for a breakout. While not an ideal play, aggressive traders may look to short a loss of 6,445 with a stop above 6,450. Should the latter occur, look to take profits at the 50-day MA.





The Russell 2000 stalled a little before making a challenge on 1,450. Again, swing trade the doji and play for a move to 1,450 on the upside or 1,425 on the downside.





For tomorrow, watch how markets emerge from these doji and follow the momentum as determined by the market.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Semiconductors Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It was somewhat disappointing not to see the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 make the break from resistance. However, the Semiconductor index did manage a breakout of 1,150. There was some weakness into the close but the fact the bearish engulfing pattern has been negated means the bearish overhang created by this pattern has been consumed.






The Russell 2000 made respectable gains as it works towards July highs. I would expect a reversal off 1,450 resistance but if such losses can hold above 1,430 then it will set up a bullish handle for the next swing higher.





Large Caps had the best of today’s action, benefitting from cleared resistance with no overhead supply it was essentially ‘free’ gains for longs.





While Tech indices remain primed for a move higher.





For tomorrow keep an eye on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Small Cap traders should perhaps look to take some profits on a hit of 1,450. Large Cap traders have no real reason to sell yet.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Citi Group- Bullish breakout taking place

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

pic for chris kimble post on C citi

Citi Group (C) since 2007 highs is much lower in price. Over the past 18-months, its a different story for Citi! Below looks at Citi this year and how it is attempting to breakout from a bullish pattern:

weeky chart of C citigroup, chris kimble chart

Over the past few months, Citi appears to have created another bullish ascending triangle. This pattern results in an upside breakout, two-thirds of the time. As mentioned above, Citi looks to have formed a bullish ascending triangle pattern at (1), where we applied a measured move calculation.

This week Citi is attempting to break out of the top of the pattern at (2). The measured move suggests that Citi could reach the $77 level, should it break out.

Full disclosure - Premium and Sectors members have been long this stock for months and should the breakout take place, to continue holding this stock.

From Kimble Charting Solutions.  We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decision-making and results

Send us an email if you would like to see sample reports or a trial period to test drive our Premium or Weekly Research





Weekly Market Recap Sep 17, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

A sharp rally Monday was followed by 4 relatively quiet days as gains were efficiently consolidated.   After a brief respite, bears are back on the run again.  No real catalyst Monday other than “less damage than expected from Irma” and no weekend hijinks from the North Koreans.  For the week the S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.4%.

Katie Stockton is giddy:

“The U.S. stock market is exhibiting positive short- and long-term momentum, and breadth has expanded enough to lift the S&P 500 to a new all-time high,” said Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG Research.  “Short-term overbought conditions have returned for the S&P 500, but they tend to be managed well when associated with breakouts, which are abundant,” Stockton said.

On the economic front, household incomes have finally reached (inflation adjusted) levels once seen in the NASDAQ bubble; it took nearly 2 decades for that to happen!

Median household income last year was $59,039, up an inflation-adjusted 3.2% from 2015, the Census Bureau said Tuesday. It was a new high for the figure, surpassing the previous peak for household income reached in 1999.

A reading on consumer prices, known as the consumer-price index, showed an increase of 0.4% in August, beating consensus estimates for a rise of 0.3%.  U.S. industrial output fell 0.9% in August, its first drop in seven months. The Federal Reserve said the decline was mostly due to the recent impact of Hurricane Harvey.    A Commerce Department report on Friday showed retail sales fell 0.2% in August, bucking economists’ expectations for a gain, following a 0.3% increase in July. Both July and June retail sales were revised lower.

Remember all that talk about reducing deficits and such during the last election (like ALL elections)??  Yeah not so much:

The U.S. officially hit $20 trillion in debt, with about half of that added over the past decade or so.

Mastercard (MA) is up quietly nearly 40% for the year.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 .. via Jill Mislinski.

Waiting for a…
continue reading





Still Waiting For Tech Breakout But Omens Good

Courtesy of Declan.

Expiration Friday pushed some heavy volume through the markets but the buying wasn’t enough to bring about much-anticipated breakouts for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. However, Friday’s action suggests all remains good for this to happen early next week. But any drop below 5,900 in the Nasdaq 100, and 6,350 in the Nasdaq has the potential to set up a cascade of (long) stop hits.

For the Nasdaq, anyone who took advantage of the channel support hit mid-August (green arrow) will be sitting pretty. I would be looking for a move back to channel resistance.

The Nasdaq 100 is provided below for comparison.

Helping the Nasdaq was a very strong week for the Semiconductor Index. Note the uptick in relative strength combined with a challenge of the highs created by June’s massing bearish engulfing pattern. Friday’s action consumed this overhang supply, and new highs for Semiconductors (and Tech indices) look to be on the cards.

Of other indices, the Russell 2000 made a subtle move to challenge the false breakout in July by closing above 1,430.  If you a short term trader looking for a below the radar long opportunity, a move in the Russell 2000 to 1,450 could deliver. The index is enjoying good relative performance which will also help (vs Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100).

Large Caps continued to consolidate their breakouts, although I would have liked to have seen them put some distance from breakout support which remains perilously close.

Below is the Dow

Charts of a longer time frame do not yet suggest a top is in place. For the Staples:Discretionary relationship I would like to see a tag of broadening resistance; note, this is a monthly chart so it could be 2018 before we this rally peak out.

The relationship between Transports and the Dow Jones has the potential to create a ‘bear trap’…
continue reading





Reading the tape of ticker: BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

reading-the-tape-of-ticker-biomarin-pharmaceutical-bmrnBiotechs are recovering, this stock is lagging, but getting ready to move.



More from RTT Tv



Another example of Richard Wyckoff logic






NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”I have yet to find a man, in or out of Wall Street, who is able to make money in (markets) continuously or uninterruptedly. Like anyone else, I have good and bad periods.”..



Richard D Wyckoff





..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..



Spike Milligan





..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..



Benjamin Franklin





..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate the value of that, but they’re not designed to take care of social needs”..



George Soros







Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.



Warren Buffett











Dow Follows S&P Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It was a bit of a slow burn day. The S&P held its ground and its breakout without generating significant weakness. However, the Dow managed to post a new closing high although the percentage gain is low and volume was below average.






On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq was rebuffed by resistance as it was unable to break higher.





The Russell 2000 didn’t do a whole lot and technicals remain bullish with continued improvement in relative performance. It’s up against a minor resistance with 1,460 easily within range.





For tomorrow, bulls now have the S&P and Dow Jones Index to work with while bears have both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.  The Russell 2000 may grab some shorting interest but technicals suggest higher prices are favoured.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









S&P Breakout Holds

Courtesy of Declan.

Large Caps and the S&P, in particular, has been leading the broader market with this week’s breakout. Technicals are all net bullish as the index looks to mount a challenge of rising channel resistance, which is still some distance away. Current momentum suggests higher prices are favoured and it will take a loss of the channel and a failed retest of the prior high to suggest bears have regained control – so shorts will have to wait longer before they can act.






The other Large Cap index, the Dow Jones, has nicked a small breakout but it hasn’t really cleared resistance. If the S&P can maintain breakout support then buyers will look to the Dow as a ‘cheap’ alternative to trade. The good news for bulls is that supporting technicals are strong and aligning in favour of buyers.





The Nasdaq is another index poised to break. Again, bulls probably have done enough to see a breakout; technical strength is good and today’s volume registered as an accumulation day.





The Nasdaq 100 is also ready to rise. If there is a concern (and it would apply to the Nasdaq too) it’s that relative performance has shifted away from Tech towards Small Caps.





Finally, the Russell 2000 continued its run of good form.  It still has plenty of work to do to make it back to highs, but for those who bought the swing low or the fake out loss of the 200-day MA have little reason to sell. Better still, relative performance has started to pick up after months of underperformance – a key shift.





For tomorrow, look for a following breakout in the Dow Jones and new breakouts in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts at All-Time Highs

 

A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts at All-Time Highs

Courtesy of 

This morning, the S&P 500 is making its 31st all-time high this year. That’s one every 5.6 days, on average.

The index is up 11.1% over the first 174 days of 2017, which is the strongest year-to-date performance through this time since 2013.

The S&P 500 has been above the 200-day moving average for 304 days, going back to last June. What’s incredible about this streak is that it hasn’t even come close to testing its 200-day. It has been more than 3% above it, an arbitrary number, for 210 straight days. This is just the seventh time since 1970 that stocks have experienced a stretch like this.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 relative to its 200-day in gray, with the other 6 instances of elevated readings highlighted in red.

What’s somewhat noteworthy about the current streak is that at no point was the S&P 500 more than 10% above the 200-day, which happened in each of the previous six occurrences. In other words, stocks have been elevated for a while, but never got terribly extended.

What also makes today interesting is how quiet it is. It feels weird to be hanging around all-time highs without much movement in either direction. The chart below shows the rolling 30-day standard deviation for the S&P 500. The red areas show the six previous times when stocks were extended above their 200-day moving average.

Below is the information from the chart thrown into table.

What does all this mean? Stocks are elevated but they’re not moving very much, which probably could have been a tweet, but I always say most tweets should be blog posts.





Respectable Gains Offer Test of Highs

Courtesy of Declan.

So with markets threatening support they instead gap higher and post further gains.  Today has probably done enough to see markets post new all-time highs while shorts are left with little to work with.




The S&P gapped higher with technicals net bullish. Volume was a little disappointing (given the degree of gain) but all of this leaves markets ready for new highs.






The Nasdaq gapped on higher volume accumulation. The index hasn’t yet managed new highs but tomorrow could be the day this happens. Look for a move to upper channel resistance.





The Russell 2000 was the index offering the best chance for bulls. Today was a good solid day’s action delivered below the radar; use GTC ‘buy’ orders to fish for fills down to 1,400 with stops on a loss of last week’s lows.





For bulls late to the game, keep an eye on the Nasdaq 100. The index is nicely primed for a breakout just below 6,000.





Tomorrow will be about holding on to as much of today’s gains as possible. For traders seeking new opportunities, a breakout in the Nasdaq 100 is probably the best play.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog


.


I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Chart School

Minor Changes: Yesterday's and Weekend Comments Remain Valid

Courtesy of Declan.

I don't want to overplay today's action as little changed in the broader scheme of things. Days like today are welcomed and help shape up swing trades for those trading in near term timeframes.

The tight doji in the S&P could be used for a swing trade; buy a break of the high/short loss of low - stop on flip side. High whipsaw risk but look for 3:1 risk:reward and maybe trail stops if deciding to go with partial profits.


Tech averages are still set up for a breakout. While not an ...

more from Chart School

Phil's Favorites

Spanish Government Fearmongering: "Catalonia Faces Brutal Impoverishment If Leave Wins"

Courtesy of Mish.

On October 1, Catalans head to the polls to vote yes or no on separation from Spain.

The Spanish government and constitutional court claim the referendum is illegal but 700 Catalonia mayors say the vote will take place.

Today Madrid launched a major fearmongering campaign: Catalonia Faces ‘Brutal’ Impoverishment If It Leave, Spain Warns.

“The general impoverishment of the society would be brutal. GDP could fall between 25 and 30 percent and unemployment double, ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Buildings Collapse, Thousands Take To The Street After Powerful Quake Shakes Mexico City

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

On the anniversary of a massive 1985 earthquake that killed at least 5,000 people, Mexico City has been shaken by another powerful earthquake, the second the shake the city in the past two weeks. Ironically, the quake occurred just two-hours after an earthquake drill. The 7.4 magnitude quake shook buildings in the capital city, sending thousands rushing into the streets, according to Reuters.

...



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ValueWalk

FBN Beats CNBC Even During Delivering Alpha Week

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fox Business Network ratings for the week of September 11th – September  15th.  FBN beat CNBC even during their big annual Delivering Alpha Conference which is one of the biggest investment conferences of the year with Lou Dobbs leading the pack – another big win for FBN – see more details below

FOX BUSINESS NETWORK SWEEPS CNBC IN BUSINESS DAY FOR EIGHTH TIME THIS YEAR

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your de...



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Insider Scoop

AMD, Marvell Gain Semiconductor Share In Q3

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AMD Fast Money Traders Share Their Picks In The Chip Space AMD, Bank Of America, Gilead, Intel: Fast Money Pic...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks"

What do you think?

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

...

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Digital Currencies

Comparing Bitcoin, Ether, & Other Cryptos

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you’re probably aware that we’re in the middle of a cryptocurrency explosion. In one year, the value of all currencies increased a staggering 1,466% – and newer coins like Ethereum have even joined Bitcoin in gaining some mainstream acceptance.

And while people like Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan and famed value investor Howard Marks have been extremely critical of cryptocurrencies as of late, many other investors are continuing to ride the wave. As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins has noted in the past, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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