Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Good Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

In early morning action it was a clear swing to sellers after yesterday’s non-event. However, buyers came back and were able to make a good chunk of these losses into today’s close.




Large Caps remained the most attractive as defensive stocks often are during times of doubt. The S&P registered higher volume accumulation as intraday action proved to be relatively tight.



The Nasdaq suffered larger losses, but there was no distribution to go with it. Technicals were relatively immune to today’s action.






The Semiconductor Index suffered the largest loss as it found itself drifting back to channel support. Technicals are back on the defensive after today’s action which returned ‘sell’ triggers for the MACD, CCI and relative performance against the Nasdaq 100.





How will bulls defend today’s recovery? Watch for early selling in a repeat of morning action – particularly if it challenge’s Thursday’s lows (and therefore erases the losses from today). Shorts may even find an opportunity in the Semiconductor Index if it gives up loss from the rising channel.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Market Pause

Courtesy of Declan.

Nothing really to add to yesterday. Markets took minor hits, but there was little intraday spread. The biggest spread was in the Russell 2000 which was underperforming heading into today’s session. It reversed most of yesterday’s gains, but it has some way to go before it begins challenging the breakout






The New Lows and Highs is in a secular bullish pattern, and it will take continued pressure in spike lows to generate a sustained sell off – none of which is happening here.





But markets are a long way from a buying opportunity too.





For tomorrow, keep on watching…




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Semiconductors Have Best of Day’s Action

Courtesy of Declan.

The long weekend didn’t give bulls reason to pause. Instead, it was gains all around. The biggest winner was the Semiconductor Index as it logged nearly double other indices gains. This was enough to return ‘sell’ triggers in MACD and CCI back to ‘buy’ triggers. It also worked the index off rising support.






The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq gained alongside the Semiconductor Index. Little to say other than trail stops.






Small Caps posted gains which were second to that of the Semiconductor Index. While the Russell 2000 is slow to partake in the 2017 party, today’s action offered a sound tip of the hat to bulls.





Shorts have little to look forward too. Bulls need to ensure they don’t left profits slip.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Wednesday, 13 July 2016, 03:17:09 PM

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Comment: ..”But, investors truly wonder if the moves are sustainable. As we have stressed, the valuation on Utilities looks stretched…”… RTT: No kidding!!

Date Found: Monday, 18 July 2016, 03:28:53 AM

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Comment: Catherine Austin Fitts-The Debt Game Is Over youtu.be/feW-iDhkoiA

Date Found: Wednesday, 20 July 2016, 12:39:33 AM

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Comment: Deutsche Bank is Broke, Derivatives Collapse Coming – Jim Rogers Interview youtu.be/9PcBGZNjYMo

Date Found: Friday, 22 July 2016, 04:44:14 PM

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Comment: This will bust!…

Date Found: Saturday, 23 July 2016, 03:37:20 PM

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Comment: The baby boomers will sink the stock market before 2020 www.thefelderrepo…

Date Found: Sunday, 24 July 2016, 02:47:26 PM

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Comment: I’m Calling It (metals) youtu.be/I-ioPGgN56A

Date Found: Sunday, 24 July 2016, 03:24:11 PM

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Comment: Trump Policy Will Unravel Traditional Neocons , very smart play! youtu.be/K45-9oimA9w

Date Found: Sunday, 24 July 2016, 11:25:34 PM

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Comment: History : Repeat Did Verizon Just Signal The Top?

Date Found: Tuesday, 26 July 2016, 05:04:53 PM

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Comment: Government Sachs youtu.be/dlRzbBEAVFE

Date Found: Thursday, 28 July 2016, 01:55:24 PM

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Comment: BROWN PANTS WARNING …”Over the past half-century, we have never seen a decline in earnings of this magnitude without at least a 20% fall in stock prices, a hurdle many use…
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The Volume and Price Conundrum

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

the-volume-and-price-conundrumReading the tea leaves of a price and volume chart leaves most confused, here are some thoughts.



More from RTT Tv












NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be.  The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices break through the limit in either direction.”..



Jesse Livermore





..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..



Bernard Baruch





..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..



John Templeton





…“People somehow think you must buy at the bottom and sell at the top to be successful in the market. That’s nonsense! The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance”…



Martin Zweig (The inspiration behind a number of Martin Zweig’s methods came, from Jesse Livermore).





Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.



Bruce Kovner











Weekly Market Recap Feb 19, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The never ending rally continued at pace this last week, with solid gains Mon thru Wed, followed by some quiet consolidation the final 2 days of the week.   This action simply is a grind for any remaining bears to have to deal with as there is no relent.  As happened late in the prior week (“phenomenal” was the word), indexes rallied Wednesday as President Donald Trump said a “massive” tax plan would be coming in the “not-too-distant future.”  Yellen testified and Donald showed restraint in not tweeting about her.

“Even though we have social unrest and building geopolitical tensions, the market refuses to fall in any meaningful fashion, which means there remains a very strong underlying bid in the market,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive officer of 50 Park Investments. “This is due to a confluence of a few factors, including the earnings recession being over, a very strong bull market, and the hope for future prosperity under the pro-growth policies of the new administration.”

One thing to note is that while the senior indexes full of large caps continued to levitate, the Russell 2000 (smaller cap, U.S. oriented stocks) stalled again.  So bulls will call that a healthy rotation, while bears will say a warning sign.

During Congressional testimony mid week, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled that the central bank could gradually raise interest rates sooner rather than later.  Some market participants read Yellen’s reference to the Fed raising rates at “upcoming meetings” as indicating that an increase of benchmark rates at the Fed’s March meeting, which Wall Street has been pricing in as unlikely, is still on the table.   Fed member forecasts for rates suggest that the central bank will raise rates three times in 2017, but the market isn’t expecting an increase before the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting.

A quiet week of economic news but the Producer Price Index for January jumped by 0.6%, the largest rise since 2012, suggesting inflation may be heating up.   Wednesday, retail sales were reported to have gained 0.4% in January vs expectations of…
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Nasdaq 100 Piles on the Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another week of strong gains for the market, but it was the Nasdaq 100 which has really shone since the start of the year.  The Nasdaq 100 now sits 11.8% above its 200-day MA, with all technicals firmly in the green. The +DI line is at an extreme which is often associated with a reversal, although these reversals can be brief, as it was in November.






The S&P also finished the week near highs, but its relative performance has slowed – which isn’t necessarily bad as it marks rotation towards more speculative (and long-term bullish) stocks.





However, these speculative issues don’t look to be part of the traditional bull market leader, the Russell 2000, which is a concern.  The relative performance of the index has suffered throughout 2017, which needs to change if Tech indices end up going south – leaving the bull market high and dry.





The Semiconductor Index is rising along channel support, but with technicals showing mixed form it’s probably going to move to test the slower trendline sooner rather than later. But when it does, it’s going to threaten the strong rallies in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.





Other watch areas are the the long term relationship between Discretionary and Staples stocks. Bulls can take the most comfort from this as it doesn’t look like the rally will end anytime soon; or at least until expanding wedge resistance is tested (blue circle).  This relationship typically deteriorates before the market peaks.  It had looked like doing so last February, but it managed to recover.





Tomorrow is President’s day, so it will be Tuesday before we see what happens (and what further mud Trump can stir up).  I haven’t updated the Bottom Watch table, which I’ll do when the market finally puts in some form of top.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









“Can’t Get Broke Taking Profits” – The Tech Stock Rally Is Getting Extended

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

The Nasdaq 100 rally is arguably extended now, based on the utilization of this charting analysis.

We have mentioned, on occasion, our view that the concept of rotation in the equity market is a bit overplayed. Sure, there are always some things going up on others going down, but that’s the nature of the markets. It doesn’t mean it is part of some coordinated rotation whereby various segments of the market take turns carrying the leadership mantle. In fact, it is estimated that some 70%-80% of the movement of a stock can be explained by the direction of the overall market.  With that being said, in the last eight months or so, the stock market has probably exhibited more “rotational” characteristics than any other period in recent memory.

Others have pointed to the multi-year lows in stock correlations.  It is part of the same concept.  The recent rotation among stocks segments has been interesting to say the least, not to mention an attractive environment for active managers. Some groups of stocks rally while others consolidate; some break out while others pull back; some are extended while others are poised to make a move. Presently, you might place technology stocks, or specifically the NASDAQ 100, in the “extended” category.

Our rationale for that characterization is not just because the NDX is up 23 out of 29 days this year, although that helps.  The premise is based on charting technique involving the Fibonacci mathematical sequence of numbers. As we have mentioned before, the Fibonacci sequence is a repeating pattern found in all walks of life, including the financial markets. We have found, as have others, that prices often move in approximate increments corresponding to the Fibonacci sequence. One example is with “extensions”.

Fibonacci extensions relate to the incremental moves that prices exhibit following a break out of a range.  In this case we are looking at the NDX’s ranges corresponding to its declines from July-August 2015 and from November 2015-February 2016. Once the NDX finally broke above those ranges last summer, we could start measuring its “extension”. We measure it as a percentage of the range and monitor certain percentages that correspond to the Fibonacci sequence.

The most significant percentage in Fibonacci is 61.8%, or 0.618.  That is the figure resulting from dividing


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Chart o’ the Day: Stocks are booming, but new highs aren’t

 

Chart o’ the Day: Stocks are booming, but new highs aren’t

Courtesy of 

Another day, another new record open for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq Composite. New highs are bullish, not bearish – especially new highs across all major averages.

But what’s going on in the “market of stocks”, beneath the surface of these new highs for the indices?

My friend Jon Krinsky, ace technician for MKM Partners, points out a divergence worth keeping an eye on in the New York Stock Exchange Composite (NYA)…

As the market pushes to new highs, less stocks are making new highs. Like most divergences, this can persist so it is once again a warning more than a timing tool.

Josh here – it’s worth pointing out that this can change relatively quickly, as large numbers of stocks play catch up and break out to new highs individually. These divergences don’t have to end badly, nor do they necessarily guarantee a correction through price. It’s just as reasonable to guess that the index price could correct through time should the rally become too narrow and falter.

Source:

When Volatility Gets Low, Buy Low Vol. Stocks
MKM Partners – February 12, 2017





Weekly Market Recap Feb 12, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The quite long in the tooth rally continues as we had 3 days of minor loses to begin the week; ending with 2 days of moderate gains.  We are in a bit of a quiet zone as most S&P 500 companies have now reported earnings, the Federal Reserve is not a “worry” for about a month and a half, and the major economic news of the month hit the prior week.  So the gnashing of teeth (or not) about government policy seems to be the main driver right now- late in the week it was announced some major new tax initiatives would be coming down the pike soon which the market liked.

President Donald Trump said Thursday that an announcement concerning taxes is on tap for the coming weeks, which his press secretary later said would involve an outline of a comprehensive tax plan. “Over the next two or three weeks,” Trump said during a meeting with airline executives, there will be an announcement that would be “phenomenal in terms of tax.”

“The market [is] trying to come to terms with whether the new administration and Congress will be able to work together effectively or not,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network. “Most of the positive expectations were based on the assumption that we were at the end of the gridlock era, and that the Trump administration and Republican Congress would work together.”  Events of the recent week have called that notion into question and the possible repeal of Dodd-Frank is looking less likely, he added.

For the bears:  The latest weekly survey of U.S. advisors by Investors Intelligence showed that the number of bulls rose to 62.7% last week, the highest level since December 2004. Investor Intelligence considers a number above 55% a danger zone, as it is a strong, contrarian warning of a potential market top.

Bespoke posted a nice chart on Tuesday showing that the S&P 500 has now gone 80 days without a 1% drop; the longest streak since 2006.  So make that 83 days as of Friday!

no1percentdecline

Now even more…
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Phil's Favorites

Weekly Market Summary

 

Weekly Market Summary

Courtesy of The Fat Pitch

Summary: All of the US equity indices made new all-time highs again this week. Treasuries were the biggest winner. A drawdown of at least 5-8% in SPX is odds-on before year end, but there are a number of compelling studies suggesting that 2017 will probably continue to be a good year for US equities.

* * *

On Friday, SPX and DJIA made new all-time highs (ATH). During the week, COMPQ, NDX, RUT and NYSE also made new ATHs. All the indices moving to new highs together suggests that this is a broadl...



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Zero Hedge

"Where Does This Crisis End?" - Kurt Schlichter Lays Out The Left's Violent Endgame

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Kurt Schlichter via Townhall.com,

The Democrat Party, its Media serfs, and Social Justice Incorporated are all outraged because we uppity normals are again presuming to rule ourselves, and their agony is delightful. Less delightful is how, in the process of trying to claw their way back into power, they are incinerating the norms and rules that preserve our political order. That stuff Hillary babbled about honoring the legiti...



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ValueWalk

Aswath Damodaran - Session 9: Historical, Analyst & Fundamental Growth

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.


In this session we continued our discussion of growth by first looking at the limitations of analyst estimates of growth and then examining the fundamentals that drive growth. Starting with a very simple algebraic proof that growth in earnings has to come either from new investments or improved efficiency, we looked at how best to estimate growth in three measures of earnings: earnings per share, net income and operating income. With each measure of earnings, the estimation of growth boiled down to answering two questions: (1) How much is this company reinvesting to generating for future growth? (2) How well is it reinvesting? (3) How much growth is added or lost by changes in returns on existing investments? In the next session, we will continue this discussion after the quiz.

Start of the class test: ...



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Mapping The Market

Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

Courtesy of Jean Luc

Good article about facts and why we reject them:

WHY FACTS DON’T CHANGE OUR MINDS

New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.

By Elizabeth Kolbert

In “Denying to the Grave: Why We Ignore the Facts That Will Save Us” (Oxford), Jack Gorman, a psychiatrist, and his daughter, Sara Gorman, a public-health specialist, probe the gap between what science tells us and what we tell ourselves. Their concern is with those persistent beliefs which are not just demonstrably false but also potentially deadly, like the conviction that vaccines are hazardous. Of course, what’s hazardous is not being vaccinated; that’s why vaccines were created in the first place. “Immunization is one of the triumphs of modern medicine,” the Gormans no...



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Market News

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Courtesy of John Rubino.

US stocks finish at record high. Gold and silver at multi-week highs. Bitcoin near all-time high. Trump national security adviser scandal evolving, EPA chief controversy ramping up after email release. Debate over Putin and fake news intensifies.  

Best Of The Web

It’s bubble time! – Peak Prosperity

Dazed & confused… Treasury buying vs. asset valuations? – Econimica

...



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Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Surges To Record High, China Prepares Its Own Digital Currency

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock (Mish)

Bitcoin hit an all-time high over $1200 today.

Traders are happy because the SEC is expected to rule on a Bitcoin ETF by March 11.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports China Is Developing its Own Digital Currency.
 

After assembling a research team in 2014, the People’s Bank of China has done trial runs of its prototype cryptocurrency. That’s taking it a step closer to becoming one of the first major central...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil; Energy stocks suggesting its about to fall, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below takes a look at the price action of Crude Oil, Energy ETF (XLE) and Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) over the past three years.

Could Energy stocks be suggesting the next big move in Crude Oil again? Which direction are they suggesting?

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

At this time the intermediate trend in Cru...



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Members' Corner

The Manchurian President

 

The Manchurian President

Courtesy of  at BillMoyers.com

As the Trump presidency unravels, unraveling the country along with it, there is no real political antecedent, no lessons from American history on which to draw and provide guidance. We are in entirely uncharted waters.

But there is an antecedent in our popular culture that provides a prism through which to view the contemporary calamity, especially the alleged collusion between Trump’s henchmen and Russian intelligence to deny Hillary Clinton the presidency. I am not the first observer who has ...



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Chart School

Good Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

In early morning action it was a clear swing to sellers after yesterday's non-event. However, buyers came back and were able to make a good chunk of these losses into today's close.

Large Caps remained the most attractive as defensive stocks often are during times of doubt. The S&P registered higher volume accumulation as intraday action proved to be relatively tight.

The Nasdaq suffered larger losses, but there was no distribution to go with it. Technicals were relatively immune to today's action.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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