Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Traders ‘Stunned’ As Nasdaq Fails To Rise, Debt-Ceiling Despair Inverts Yield Curve

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Stocks soared…

And today…

The day started off badly withEuropean stocks fell to the lowest level in 10 days as concern about potential antitrust collusion sent carmakers toward the worst decline in more than a year. Euro Stoxx 600 has now erased all the gains from the French Election euphoria…

Nasdaq failed to achieve its 11th day in a row of gains as early European weakness was just too much for the machines to overcome… though they tried… (11 days would have been the longest winning streak since July 2009) Dow ended the week red, Trannies worst week since Brexit

LPL's Ryan Detrick notes that the Nasdaq has been up for 10 consecutive sessions for the first time since Feb ’15. Since 1980, this has happened 21 other times, and the next month on average for Nasdaq was +2.6%, higher 16 of those 21 times overall.

VIX was clubbed to new lows in an effort to pump up stocks and go for the 11th daily win… but failed…

VIX closed at 9.31!! That is the lowest weekly VIX close in history

Utes were the week's best-performing sector (not exactly growthy) and financials worst…

FANG Stocks are up 11 days in a row and had their best week since Oct 2016 (thanks to NFLX) and the best 2-week gains (11%!) since July 2015

Bonds and Stocks recoupled this week…

As a reminder this has been an epic short-squeeze – the last time shorts were this low was at the peak for the S&P in Q2007…

Treasury yields tumbled this week… first weekly close lower in yields in the last 4 (2nd biggest weekly yield decline in 4 months)

With 10Y back below 2.25% back to pre-Fed-rate-hike levels…


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The Dangerous Season Begins Now

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Dmitri Speck via Acting-Man.com

Old Truism

Readers are surely aware of the saying “sell in May and go away”. It is one of the best-known and oldest stock market truisms.

And the saying is justified. In my article “Sell in May and Go Away – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So” in the May 01 2017 issue of Seasonal Insights I examined the so-called Halloween effect in great detail.

The result: in just two out of eleven international stock markets does it make sense to invest during the summer months.

October meetings after you forgot to sell in May [PT]

But is “sell in May” really the best recommendation? After all, it is merely a saying based on general experience. We will take a closer look at the seasonal pattern below.

The Precise Seasonal Pattern of the Russell 2000 Index

The small and mid-cap index Russell 2000 exhibits particularly pronounced seasonal trends. That makes it very useful for the purpose of seasonal analysis.

Unlike a standard price chart, the seasonal chart of the Russell 2000 depicts the average pattern that emerges in the index in the course of a year. The horizontal axis shows the time of the year, the vertical axis the average percentage changes over the past 30 years. The seasonal trends of the index can be discerned precisely at a glance.

Russell 2000 Index, seasonal pattern over the past 30 years – the Russell 2000 enters a period of seasonal weakness in mid July.

As can be seen, the Russell 2000 does indeed typically decline between May and October. However, there is one last surge into a mid July interim peak before it actually begins to fall rather noticeably. This underscores that it is important to analyze seasonal trends with precision.

The period of seasonal weakness in the Russell 2000 Index is highlighted in dark blue on the chart. It begins on July 15 and ends on October 27.

The Russell 2000 Declined in 17 of


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Small Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It has taken a few days for Small Caps to make their move but today was the day the Russell 2000 joined other indices in mounting a breakout. It was a clean breakout supported by positive technical strength – putting to bed the June ‘bull trap’. Watch for the second round of stop-whips with an intraday move (and recovery) below 1,430.






Other indices added to their breakouts. The S&P gapped and pushed on, backed by higher volume accumulation. Watch for a tag of upper channel resistance.





The Nasdaq gapped higher on higher volume accumulation. Today’s move puts some distance on the early June bearish engulfing pattern. As with the S&P it’s looking for a move to upper channel resistance.





The index most under pressure is the Semiconductor Index and it has yet to fully challenge the June bearish engulfing pattern.  However, with the Russell 2000 breaking today it’s now the only index not to challenge (and therefore is offering a ‘value’ opportunity).





The remainder of the week will be about protecting the breakouts. The value index does look to be the Semiconductor Index with the July swing low looking more and more like a significant bottom for the index.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




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When Prices Are Falling, TWO Numbers Matter Most

 

When Prices Are Falling, TWO Numbers Matter Most

Real-world example: AAPL's 6% June slide

By Elliott Wave International

On June 29, the Apple iPhone turned 10 years old. But, for many, the mood surrounding the milestone was less than celebratory. Reason being, in June alone, Apple Inc. (AAPL) plunged 6% to two-month lows amidst a broad-scale bruising of the global tech sector.

And so, the cursor on some Smartphone stock trading apps sits there — blinking, blinking, blinking…

What's the next move? Is AAPL's 6% sell-off the start of a new downtrend. Or, will prices find a bottom and reclaim the upside?

It's a simple question. And yet, finding an answer seems so complicated. The mainstream route can be a twisted rabbit hole of conflicting news items, such as these contradictory Apple Inc. outlooks from June 30:

  • "It's time to bet against Apple" (CNBC)

-- Versus --

  • "Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock: Still a Strong Buy. Ignore 'Peak' Tech" (Investorplace.com)

And, if you're not careful, the technical route can be just as confusing, leaving your price chart with more horizontal lines (to indicate potential targets) than a sheet of college-ruled paper.

Which brings us to EWI senior analyst Jeffrey Kennedy. In his June 15 Trader's Classroom video lesson, Jeffrey shows traders a simple and effective strategy for determining how far a counter-trend move will travel — or, if said move marks the beginning of a new trend altogether. The best part is, knowing which scenario is underway comes down to TWO simple price levels:

  • Key support/resistance: Where prices will fall/rise to, and then reverse from if the larger trend is incomplete
  • Critical support/resistance: Where prices will penetrate if the trend is complete and a top/bottom is in place, thereby invalidating an Elliott wave interpretation

Listen to the following clip from Jeffrey's June 15 Trader's Classroom video to hear him explain how this strategy works in real time:

Jeffrey then shows a daily price chart of AAPL, marked by key levels where falling prices consistently dropped to, and reversed from, during the…
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Breakouts Hold

Courtesy of Declan.

While little happened over the last couple of days since the breakouts, enough was done to hang on to these gains.




Tech had the best of the action, pushing away from support and consolidating the bullish position. Volume wasn’t spectacular but not surprising given the summer season.






The Nasdaq defended breakout support with a successful backtest. Technicals are all in the green. More importantly, the bearish engulfing pattern looks to have been negated by today’s breakout on higher volume accumulation.





The S&P cleared breakout support on Friday and held its gains with further advancement in relative performance against Small Caps.





The only disappointment was the Russell 2000. While it was not a major loss and the breakout held the Russell 2000 did not fall back into its prior base.





For tomorrow, look for the continued defence of the breakout support.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.







Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid As Stocks, Dollar Hit The Doldrums

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Judging by the volume and volatility today, this is the market's attitude…

Volume in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was its lowest non-holiday day since 2005!!

"Great" China data overnight seems to have triggered a sell-the-news moment in commodities and commodity currencies. China stocks also tumbled overnight after regulators warned of more deleveraging to come…This drove China Small Caps to their lowest since Jan 2015 (down 10% in the last week)…

US 'soft' data dipped today…

But the summer doldrums appear to be here in the states, as S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq barely budged all day (though Trannies and Small Caps did move)…FDX was the big weight on Trannies (as airlines outperformed)

VIX dropped to 9.71 intraday but could not ignite any momentum in stocks…and dared to lift back above 10 in the last hour

FANG Stocks dared to drop today… a dip to buy?

Retail was a big performer again (and Utes rallied) as the rest of the S&P sectors flatlined…Financials underperformed

Tesla had a tough day after Autopilot Crash headlines and Musk said the share price didn't deserve to be this high… as the day wore on Musk tried to save the day – *MUSK: TESLA STOCK IS "LOW IF YOU BELIEVE IN TESLA'S FUTURE" but investors didn't buy it… and then said that the driver didn't blame autopilot.

Blue Apron was Amazon'd…

Bonds were bid today with Treasury yields bull-flattening (30Y -3-4bps on the day)… (Japan was closed)

Today was the biggest 2s30s flattening in a month.

The Dollar Index gained very modestly on the day (but this was still the best day for the dollar in two weeks)…

Commodity-currencies weakened notably (AUD/CAD), as did Cable…

WTI crude leaked lower today (despite a flat


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Weekly Market Recap Jul 16, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Market bulls continue to make anyone even moderately cautious (hand raised) look a fool.  A technical breakout mid week on the indexes took the market out of a sleepy range that was looking a bit dangerous.    Monday and Tuesday were the normal sleepiness we’ve come to expect from this slow and steady grind up of 2017 but some fireworks Wednesday and Friday.   Earnings season began in earnest late in the week with major financial stocks reporting “meh” results but the market shook it off.  For the week the S&P 500 gained 1.4% and the NASDAQ 2.6%.

Janet Yellen had been SLIGHTLY hawkish the past few months but her Congressional testimony mid week was viewed as dovish and traders saw that as a reason to BUY BUY BUY.

Yellen said “the evolution of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal-funds rate over time to achieve and maintain maximum employment and stable prices.”  Yellen’s remarks come as other central bankers have been expressing a desire to taper easy-money policies that have been in place in the aftermath of the 2008-’09 financial crisis. A so-called more hawkish tilt by global central bankers also had led some to believe that the Fed might be encouraged to ramp up its pace of rate increases despite sluggish inflation.

“It seems like [Yellen’s] dialing back a little bit of the hawkish sentiment from last time,” said Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist at Voya Financial. “She’s back to looking at inflation a little bit more. The market was a little worried but she’s back to the same dovish Yellen.”

That’s the central banker we’ve all come to know and love!

Economic news light and non essential so we will ignore it other than retail sales on Friday which was ignored by the market despite being weak.

Sales at retailers fizzled out in the late spring after getting the season off to a fast start, likely dampening U.S. economic growth in the second quarter.  Sales at retailers nationwide fell 0.2% last month to mark the second straight drop and match the biggest decline


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Breakouts Abound

Courtesy of Declan.

The week finished with some tasty looking breakouts in Large Cap and Tech Indices. Best of the action was given over to Large Caps with volume perhaps the most disappointing aspect of these breakouts.




The S&P closed the week out with a respectable breakout on a new ADX ‘buy’ trigger. This followed a MACD trigger ‘buy’ earlier in the week. Monday will be about defending 2,450 and staying above that mark at close of business. Long traders should play for a move to upper channel resistance.






The Dow Jones Industrial Average also enjoyed a similar breakout, although this index has been underperforming relative to Tech averages. As for the S&P it will be important for the index to hold breakout support which in this case is 21,500.





Tech was another set of indices to do well on Friday. The Nasdaq followed the resistance breakout with a new near term high style breakout. The early June bearish engulfing pattern remains dominant but each days worth of gains eats into this helped by net bullish technicals. Relative performance is also working in Tech’s favour.





The Nasdaq 100 is not to be left out. Very similar performance to the Nasdaq with a relative advantage against the Russell 2000 (Small Caps).





The Semiconductor Index has done well to recover from its June bearish engulfing pattern although I would like to see the relative performance ‘bull trap’ (against the Nasdaq 100) taken out before the bearish engulfing pattern is broken. Early week action will give an idea on this. Other technicals are all bullish.





While Large Caps and Tech enjoyed their day in the sun, Small Caps continued to build pressure against resistance. Small Caps look like the index to lead into the second half of the year but bulls will have to wait for now.





Next week will be about consolidating the breakouts and waiting for Small Caps to follow suit. Should the latter happen I would look for other breakouts to soften as money rotates out of these indices into Small Cap stocks.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Ten Rules For Catching A Bottom

 

Ten Rules For Catching A Bottom

Courtesy of 

I’ve never met a new investor who was a trend follower. That’s because we were taught to buy low and sell high before we were old enough to open a brokerage account. So when we come of age, we go hunting for bargains. But we quickly discover this is harder than it sounds.

Nobody can actually buy low and sell high. Not consistently anyway. Successful traders typically buy high and sell higher, and successful investors buy low and sell rarely. But if you are tempted to catch bottoms, to be the investor who can recognize treasure where others find trash, there are some broad rules that I suggest you follow.

The obvious area of the market that falls in the pile of “other’s trash” these days are retailers. A group of 54 of these names that Bespoke calls the “Death By Amazon” Index is down 20% this year and is at its lowest levels since April 2013. Let’s drill down and use Macy’s as an example.

screen-shot-2017-07-13-at-9-12-23-pm

Macy’s is in big trouble. Its y/o/y net income has decreased for the last ten quarters and earnings per share (TTM) are down 56% from the same time two years ago.

macys-4

This trouble has manifested itself in a much lower share price. Over the last two years it has experienced a 71% crash. Not that a 71% massacre needs context, but the only time the United States stock market fell this much was in The Great Depression.

macys-2

When brand names crash, people are tempted to step in and buy primarily for two reasons:

  1. It’s hard to imagine that something as well-known as Macy’s can get cut in half in just 86 days. But from July to November 2015, that’s exactly what happened. And since then, it shed another 45%.
  2. Few things in investing are more satisfying than making money where others couldn’t.

The first rule of catching a bottom is don’t try to catch a bottom. It’s one of the hardest things to do in all of investing. Macy’s has…
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Gold & Silver; 16-year bull market support test in play, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Gold & Silver; 16-year bull market support test in play, says Joe Friday kimble charting solutions

Below compares the performance of Gold, Silver and the S&P 500 since July of 2001. Why compare the performance of the three starting in 2001? This is when Gold & Silver created a series of higher lows, starting a new bull market that lasted the following decade. From 2001 until 2011, Gold & Silver both outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 500% each! 

chart comparing Gold silver and S&P 500 kimble charting solutions

No doubt it paid to own Gold & Silver over the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2011. As we all know at this time, the performance between the three has done the exact opposite over the past 6-years, as it has paid to own the S&P and avoid Gold & Silver.  Is in now time to consider that Gold & Silver could be ending the 6-year bear market in metals?

Below looks at only Gold & Silver since the late 1990’s and why the price point in Gold & Silver are testing what could be historically important levels.

monthly chart of gold and silver, kimble charting solutions

 

The above chart reflects that Gold & Silver on a monthly basis are both testing 16-year rising support at this time. Despite Gold & Silver being lower over the past 6-years, this reflects that both are in long-term rising trends, where support is being tested.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; Support is Support until broken and both are testing long-term support at this time. What both do at this support test should send very important long-term messages about the metals space and will lead to wonderful opportunities.

If you would like to receive Power of the Pattern charts in the metals sector, you can receive them by being a Premiumor Metals member.

This information is coming to you from Kimble Charting Solutions.  We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decion-making and results

Send us an email if you would like to see sample reports or a trial period to test drive our Premium or Weekly Research

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM





 
 
 

ValueWalk

Pakistan Economy In Crisis: Enormous CAD In Financial Year 2017

By Polina Tikhonova. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pakistan economy suffers from the enormous current account deficit (CAD) increase, sending shockwaves across the nation.

OpenClipart-Vectors / Pixabay

As China and India remain locked in what appears to be the most volatile situation on the Indian subcontinent in recent years, Pakistan enters the political crisis spurred by the ongoing investigation into the government’s corruption, leaving the country’s economy in tatters.

The ...



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Phil's Favorites

Why the US doesn't understand Chinese thought - and must

 

Why the US doesn't understand Chinese thought – and must

Courtesy of Bryan W. Van NordenYale-NUS College

Plato, Confucius and Aristotle. Ancient Greek philosophy is widely taught in American universities, but classes in Chinese philosophy are few and far between. Public domain

The need for the U.S. to understand China is obvious. The Chinese economy is on track to become the largest in the world by 2030, Chinese leadership may be the key to ...



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Zero Hedge

This Recovery Isn't All That Resilient, Here's Why

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Danielle DiMartino Booth via Bloomberg.com,

When adjusted for inflation, credit card usage has grown faster than incomes for 18 months...

Are Federal Reserve stress tests leading economic indicators? That...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears All-Time High on Spike Above Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) crushed shorts yesterday, smashing above the daily chart's downchannel resistance and soaring towards the all-time high around 3000. With yesterday's massive rally, the negative weekly MACD crossover has been proved a false signal.  Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD also strongly rebounding this past week.  Some consolidation can be expected today with daily RSI and Stochastics tiring, although with daily MACD just having positive...



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Insider Scoop

Bank Of America Says Expectations For Groupon Are Still Too High

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GRPN Benzinga's Option Alert Recap From July 18 Watch These 7 Huge Call Purchases In Monday Trade ...

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Chart School

Small Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It has taken a few days for Small Caps to make their move but today was the day the Russell 2000 joined other indices in mounting a breakout. It was a clean breakout supported by positive technical strength - putting to bed the June 'bull trap'. Watch for the second round of stop-whips with an intraday move (and recovery) below 1,430.


Other indices added to their breakouts. The S&P gapped and pushed on, backed by higher volume accumulation. Watch for a tag of upper channel resistance.

...

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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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OpTrader

swing trading portfolio - week of July 17th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Courtesy of Balveen KaurThe Ohio State University and Pravin KaumayaThe Ohio State University

An oral squamous cancer cell (white) being attacked by two T cells (red), part of a natural immune response. ...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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