Archive for the ‘Chart School’ Category

Rally Slows But Not Dead

Courtesy of Declan.

The Swing Low continues to play out with small gains in lead markets. There is still resistance in play, but this supply is been consumed by the day. Trading volume was light too.




The S&P is at resistance from the March swing low, but today’s gain did little to get past this. Stochastics are bullish, but other technicals are negative and the last two days of didn’t change this.  While bears may think there is an angle to work, the most likely outcome is for a gain which returns a challenge of 2,400.






Unlike the S&P, the Nasdaq has managed to get past this March-level resistance and only has 5,928 to break before confirming new all-time highs. The MACD has been pushing a ‘sell’ trigger since March, but Stochastics and On-Balance-Volume have been very strong since the election.  The rally just above the 50-day MA has helped too. Buyers look ready for more which would deliver a fresh ‘buy’ trigger above the bullish zero line.





The Russell 2000 also got past March swing low resistance, but it hasn’t the technical strength like the Nasdaq. The presence of converged 20-day and 50-day MAs adds to the trouble as resistance. If there was an undercut of the March swing low (for a second time) it would convert the ‘bear trap’ from last week into a ‘bull trap’ and open up for a move back to the 200-day MA. Shorts best opportunity looks to be here.





The other index to watch the Semiconductor Index. It has fallen outside of the rising channel generated by the election, but a new upward channel may be taking shape. Confirmation is needed, with a move to tag the thin hashed blue line, but if this doesn’t hold, then the rising blue line from the November swing low is an alternative.





For tomorrow, the S&P is best set up for bulls, but shorts can take a look at the Russell 2000




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Rallies Come Through

Courtesy of Declan.

Bulls were able to deliver across the board gains, helping to position yesterday’s action as a swing low. Weakness at this point would offer itself as a buying opportunity, but markets wouldn’t tolerate more than a couple of days of losses if they were to go down this route.




The S&P is at resistance of the prior swing low and the 20-day MA, but today’s action is looking good for an upside break tomorrow? Technicals are firmly in the red and need more than today’s gain to fix them.






The Nasdaq did today what the S&P could do tomorrow. Supply issues are likely to kick in at 5,900, but a bullish On-Balance-Volume and a bearish MACD means one of these signals has to give?





The Russell 2000 also staged a good recovery to generate a ‘bear trap’ of its own. There is converged resistance of 20-day and 50-day MAs to consider, but if it can get above this then it has a free shot to challenge 1,414.





For tomorrow, watch for weakness in the first half hour of trading, this could be the pullback buying opportunity of this swing low. However, if markets remain weak through the day then it may suggest a ‘dead cat’ bounce.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Mixed bag of tricks; but good chance of market swing lows

Courtesy of Declan.

The damage was done premarket and value buyers were quick to take advantage. The index which benefited the most was the Nasdaq. It started today just above the 50-day MA and rallied off that. Volume wasn’t great and the technical picture didn’t really improve, but action like today’s can prove to be a good starting point for a swing low.






Despite the gain in the Nasdaq, Breadth metrics are weakening but are neither overbought nor oversold.  The next strong swing low will likely take a tag of the light green line.





The S&P actually held to a small loss, but it made a firm defense of its 50-day MA.  The intraday spread was not as great as for the Nasdaq, but the 50-day MA test is a working point for a swing low.





The Russell 2000 also staged a recovery, but not enough to make it above resistance. Today’s closing hammer is an opportunity to mount a rally tomorrow, with a stop on a loss of today’s lows.





Today’s actions fit with a swing low, but confirmation is needed with a series of higher closes over the next few days. Shorts were left hanging in a day were prudence proved to be the better course of action.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Mar 26, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Tuesday’s long overdue >1% selloff in the S&P 500 broke a very long and rare streak in the S&P 500.   The S&P 500?s streak without a 1% down day was the longest since May 18, 1995!  A marginal close lower Monday was followed by a 1.2% drop Tuesday (the NASDAQ fell 1.8% that day).

“I think that investors are kind of starting to discount the likelihood of the immediacy of [President Donald Trump’s] policies and the enthusiasm has come off the boil as a lot of his policies got mired in the legislative process,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. “Investors are not throwing in the towel but they are resetting their expectations.”

According to Bespoke, there have been only 11 instances since 1928 where the S&P 500 went over 100 days without a 1% loss.  If you believe history will repeat from a very small sample size, things still will be bullish from here.

On average during the week, month and three months following the first decline during those periods, the broad-market S&P 500 tends to end higher.  For the week, the average gain is 0.65%, advancing 8 out of 11 times. The average return after a month is 2.34%, with returns positive in 9 out those 11 occasions. After three months, average returns are about 2.44%, boasting gains in 8 out of those 11 periods.

The defeat of “repeal and replace” healthcare had some doubting whether the corporate tax reform – seen as one of the major legs of this market’s rise – may be at some risk down the road.

“The trading has nothing to do with the health-care aspects of the bill, and everything to do with what it means for tax reform, infrastructure spending, the general ability of these guys to get things done. A lot of the rally has been based on the expectation that these things will get done. If you bring that into question, a lot more risk enters the market,” said Ian Winer, director of equity sales trading at Wedbush Securities.

“At a time when the S&P 500 is


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Semiconductor Index Again At Resistance

Courtesy of Declan.

All indices were again testing resistance with small gains, but not enough to challenge a break of supply. Shorts have been presented an avenue of opportunity in the Semiconductor Index with a bearish black candlestick at the convergence of the former rising channel, and the hashed blue line connecting the swing highs dating back to December.  Technicals are a little scrappy, but there is still a MACD trigger ‘sell’ alongside a ‘sell’ trigger in CCI.

The Nasdaq 100 also finished with a black candlestick (as well as a ‘spinning top’), right on 20-day MA resistance. The higher volume does not represent accumulation, but is more in line with churning. The MACD has a well established ‘sell’ trigger, with On-Balance-Volume close to a ‘sell’ trigger.

Another shorting opportunity can be found in the Russell 2000. Friday’s gain showed a consecutive day with an upper spike finish; these spike highs mark supply at the earlier swing low from March and trading range lows of January/February. Aggressive shorts could take a punt here with a stop above 1,363.  More cautious traders may want to wait for a test of the 20-day MA which lies just 20 points above Friday’s close.

Longs may want to take a look at the S&P. It finished slightly down on Friday, but it will soon be leaning on the 50-day MA.  Volume was light, so there wasn’t concerted effort to unload on Large Cap stocks. Technicals are weak, and if Slow Stochastics [39,1] was to drop below the bullish mid-line (50) it would mark a net bearish turn in technicals.

In terms of worries, the relationship between Transports and the Dow Jones Industrial average is again under pressure; with oil prices weakening Transports should be reaping the benefits but this is not the case. As a bellwether for the economy the lack of participation in the Transport index suggests a cyclical turn in the economy, which is typically lead by weakness in the indices. If this is the case, then early declines in indices are likely to continue.


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Indecision Strikes

Courtesy of Declan.

It was no real surprise to see indices slow down in their recovery. Across the board doji mark a balance between buyers and sellers. The one index which bucked the trend a little was the Russell 2000. It staged a modest recovery which brought it back to former support turned resistance. However, technicals remain firmly bearish, and will stay this way even if there are additional gains.



The S&P closed on light volume with a doji below resistance. The narrow intraday trading range offers a low risk opportunity with a break and stop on the flip side. Tuesday’s selling suggest bears have the best chance to pushing it lower.





It was a similar story for the Nasdaq. Today’s doji closed on resistance much like the S&P. The technical picture is a little healthier than the S&P which may make a sell off more difficult to trigger.





Shorts may also want to look at the Semiconductor Index.  A MACD trigger ‘sell’ plays alongside a ‘sell’ in CCI. With the index under pressure, a move back to the slower rising trendline would not seem unreasonable at this point. #






For tomorrow, look for bears to twist the knife and try and break today’s tight action. Bulls would do well to continue to follow action in the Russell 2000; another day like today (three-in-a-row) would firm up a swing low and offer a basis for further gains.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Semiconductors Recover at 20-day MA

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday’s selling didn’t follow through with additional losses, instead, indices dug in at lows and managed to recover some of yesterday’s selloff.  The best recovery came from the Semiconductor Index. It gained over 1% as it bounced off its 20-day MA. However, it wasn’t enough to stop a ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD and CCI.






Next is the Nasdaq 100. It staged a recovery, but not from a typical support level. Unfortunately, it has a MACD trigger ‘sell’ from early March and a new ‘sell’ trigger between the -DI and +DI, but what was particularly noticeable was the bullish uptick in relative performance against the Russell 2000. If bulls are to lead, this is the index to do it.





The Russell 2000 had a quiet day. It has struggled since the ‘bull trap’ in February and today’s action was simply a pause in proceedings. Having said that, optimists will look to January’s swing low at 1,341 and today’s swing low at 1,335 as a successful support test and an opportunity to mount a rally.





The S&P posted the smallest gain and didn’t have a natural support level to work off. Technicals are also net bearish. If buyers post gains in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq, then the S&P should benefit. But, if there is a sniff of weakness, then I would expect the S&P to suffer the most.





For tomorrow, bulls will need another day like today; a same or higher open followed by consistent gains finishing with a higher close. If markets are unable to make advances off the open (e.g. finishing with a doji), then I think Friday could be a rough day for all markets.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Seniconductor Shorts Gifted Their Positions

Courtesy of Declan.

For those who took advantage of the resistance test in the Semiconductor Index; there was a picture perfect test of the hashed blue line resistance and secondary break of former rising channel support.  The Semiconductor Index finished bang on the 20-day MA so there may be a little (big?) bounce tomorrow. If buyers can’t defend the 20-day MA then the 50-day MA is next.






The S&P did not experience the biggest loss, but it did undercut the recent swing low. In fact, the relative performance of the index against the Russell 2000 kicked on in the S&P’s favour, but it may not be enough. The next logical test is the 50-day MA at 2,326. Today was also marked by significant distribution and a ‘sell’ trigger in





It was a similar story for the Nasdaq as it undercut the swing low. Volume climbed in distribution (as it was for other indices) with a new ‘sell’ trigger in +DI/-DI. The only hang-on for bulls is bullish stochastics. The 50-day MA at 5,736 is looking like a good place for buyers to return to the index.





The Russell 2000 was the weakest index coming into today, but today it gave up close to 3% as sellers swarmed the index after having long said goodbye to its 20-day and 50-day MAs. The next question is whether it can defend 1,342; if it can’t, then it’s about looking at the 200-day MA.





For tomorrow, given the extent of 1-day losses over the last 6-months (not many), the likelihood of a rally is quite high. The indices hardest hit – the Russell 2000 and Semiconductor Index – are most likely to post the biggest gains. However, if there is not a positive reaction in the first half-hour of market action, then these same indices will be most likely take the biggest losses.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









SP500 machine off day

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

sp500-machine-off-dayToday the market has fallen 27 pts (so far) on the SP500, it looks like a machine off day!



Here are some charts from our private RTT Plus blog over the past two months.



The Golden Ratio is very good in picking price judder bars when a market is in new ground and has no resistance.





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Goldien Number






Maybe the realisation TRUMP plans may take a little longer than expected, we may see a similar price action to Reagan first year. Or maybe its just the ECB talking of higher rates with all the banking issues they have, and how the many legs of the octopus may reach the US banks derivative books. (Note: Banks are selling off hard, just after a period of large insider selling by bank bosses)





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Reagan first year




Or course we all have seen topping patterns before, wide range up into new ground to bring in the uniformed, wide range down as the informed distribute to the uniformed.





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Market tops








NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..” If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole”..



Jesse Livermore Trading Rule





..”Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected”..



George Soros





..”If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks”..



John (Jack) Bogle





..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..



Mark Twain





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett











RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Friday, 12 August 2016, 03:33:10 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: Worldwide Debt Bubble & Currency Collapse | Marc Faber youtu.be/tL3FaNI3ImE

Date Found: Friday, 12 August 2016, 06:39:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: The Deception of the A/D Line youtu.be/CPQyyHufnnI

Date Found: Saturday, 13 August 2016, 03:23:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ..” Buffett’s favorite valuation yardstick “….RTT: Stocks are over valued! Simple, its a SELL!

Date Found: Saturday, 13 August 2016, 03:27:43 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: Recession Indicator: www.thefelderrepo…

Date Found: Saturday, 13 August 2016, 03:29:26 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ..”A German Bank Finally Caves: Will Charge Retail Investors A Negative 0.4% Deposit Rate”… RTT: Got gold!

Date Found: Sunday, 14 August 2016, 02:03:01 AM

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Comment: Keiser Report: MUST WATCH! youtu.be/-aCVzWnJZ8U

Date Found: Sunday, 14 August 2016, 09:58:34 PM

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Comment: ZH..”In fact, the hoarding of cash in China corresponded with the top in 1999/2000, and the top in 2007…”” RTT: China M2 YOY change sync with SP500…tic tic

Date Found: Tuesday, 16 August 2016, 01:29:13 PM

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Comment: Maloney Calls It: RECESSION HERE NOW youtu.be/M1He-bpM8MI

Date Found: Tuesday, 16 August 2016, 01:34:59 PM

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Comment: TPP – Trump does have a point on this! youtu.be/xBeQvpFTvqU

Date Found: Tuesday, 16 August 2016, 02:00:00 PM

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Comment: WikiLeaks – The US strategy to create a new global legal and economic system.…
continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Did medical Darwinism doom the GOP health plan?

 

Did medical Darwinism doom the GOP health plan?

Courtesy of Michael L. MillensonNorthwestern University

House Speaker Paul Ryan announced March 24 that he was pulling his proposed health care bill from consideration. Scott Applewhite/AP

“We are now contemplating, Heaven save the mark, a bill that would tax the well for the benefit of the ill.”

Although that quote reads like ...



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Chart School

Rally Slows But Not Dead

Courtesy of Declan.

The Swing Low continues to play out with small gains in lead markets. There is still resistance in play, but this supply is been consumed by the day. Trading volume was light too.

The S&P is at resistance from the March swing low, but today's gain did little to get past this. Stochastics are bullish, but other technicals are negative and the last two days of didn't change this.  While bears may think there is an angle to work, the most likely outcome is for a gain which returns a challenge of 2,400.

...

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Zero Hedge

Hillary Slams Trump In First Post-Election-Loss Speech: "Resist, Insist, Persist, Enlist"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Clad in purple, Hillary Clinton took on the Trump administration Tuesday in one of her first public speeches since she devastatingly lost the presidential election.

Under the banner of hashtag-inclusion, AP reports, Clinton criticized Republ...



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ValueWalk

Governments Can Theoretically Destroy All Wealth in the World in One Year

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

A recent article pointed out that Spiders could theoretically eat every human on Earth in one year.
Shocking.

It’s also shocking that governments can theoretically destroy all wealth in one year.

That’s an unfathomable amount of wealth extraction, but it raises the question: what is the limit?

Tama66 / Pixabay

Governments are quite literally all around us, even governments within governments...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Strong markets struggling at breakout levels of late

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The S&P 500, Banks, Small Caps and Transportation indices continue to climb higher, as the long-term trend remains up. The two charts below, look at performance over the past month and how each index is testing long-term breakout levels.

The chart below looks at how the above mentioned indices have performed over the past 30-days.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

These key markets are a little soft the past 30-days. The Power of the Pattern below looks at where this softness is taking pl...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Pound Pares Decline as U.K. Officially Starts Brexit Process (Bloomberg)

The pound touched a one-week low against the dollar as the U.K. prepared to start the process by which it will leave the European Union.

Double-Edged Sword: Home Prices Keep Rising, Home Inventory Keeps Falling (Forbes)

You are thinking about selling your home. A similar place nearby sells for more than you thought it would. You list your home. This is how the housing market is supposed to work. As a result, over time, pric...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 27th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

More Natterings

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

[Click on the titles for the full articles.]

A Quick $20 Trick?

Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:

  • Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
  • GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
  • Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.

Last Time Out

Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital,...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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