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Richard Wyckoff SP500 price forecast

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

richard-wyckoff-sp500-price-forecastRichard Wyckoff used Point and Figure charts to target price zones where the energy or ‘effect’ from a ’cause’ or consolidation would run out. Time to see what it says about the current SP500 price advance.

Reference: The Wyckoff Method Applied in 2009: A Case Study of the US Stock Market

Within the pdf linked above, page down to page 34 or page 6, figure 8. There you see the forecast price zone of the SP500 from the top in 2007 to a bottom in 2009. The forecast is of price only, and not time. It was very accurate.

Richard Wyckoff would only use this technique on PnF charts that were Wyckoff friendly, or more simply charts that showed the PnF price zone target worked with some success. After all, not all PnF charts are the same. The chart below shows the PnF forecast (A) and (B) worked out well [NOTE: (A) is the same one in the pdf linked].

The Wyckoff forecasting idea is that you count the columns that are included within the CAUSE ([re]accumulation or [re]distribution) and the extend the price zone vertically based on a x3 multiple. The column count would start at the first (PD) point of demand and the last point of supply (LPS) during a bullish accumulation consolidation.

The calculation at (C) suggest a price zone target of 2034 for the SP500. This is based on a ’cause’ column count of 16. However some may think the column count should be 18, if so the target price zone would be 2190. Let’s settle for a price range between 2000 and 2090 (90pts). More frankly, the SP500 is near the target now give or take 5%.

This Wyckoff PnF price zone tagret is not top picking, it is however a target where that the EFFECT from the CAUSE is about to run out, and it is where market watches can expect the market to consolidate. The folks on would say ‘expect volatility’! Remember a consolidation may mean reversal or continuation.

This method is tried and true, it has been around for a very long time, and on charts that show a good acceptance of its use, it will continue to work, and the SP500 us one of these.

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Why the Big Mac’s Rising Prices Are More Alarming Than Its Fat Content

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

Note: I’ve updated my periodic look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI) versus the Big Mac Index to coincide with The Economist’s bi-annual update of the Big Mac Index used for currency values and the most recent CPI for August 2014.

What are we to believe? The change in the price of the Big Mac says one thing while the Bureau of Labor Statistics is telling us another.

On Tuesday, August 19, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, stating that “Over the last 12 months, all the items in the index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.”

The rise in the price of a Big Mac has risen faster than the official rise in consumer prices and has been doing so since the late ’90s. In 1998, the average price of a Big Mac was about $2.50. As of July 24, 2014, The Economist reports that the price of a Big Mac is $4.80. If we were using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of a Big Mac today should be about $3.67.

Believe it or not, the price hikes represented by the Big Mac will impact you more than the saturated fats in popular burger. By understanding the price disparities, you can make better decisions for you and your clients. The rise in the price of the Big Mac foreshadows how the printing of money is eroding the financial system’s arterial walls. The impact is broad based:

  1. Each dollar we own is buying less.
  2. For individuals relying on Social Security, the compensation for inflation is not keeping up with the prices people actually pay.
  3. The price of bonds should be much lower if interest rates fully accounted for the rise of inflation based on the Big Mac.
  4. The official economic growth rate would be lower now if prices were based on the Big Mac index.

Using the Big Mac Index to Measure Inflation

The Economist created the Big Mac Index in 1986. The Big Mac Index was created to compare the price of currencies between different countries. The index is based on a theory called purchasing power parity. This theory…
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Daily Market Commentary: Moving Averages Break

Courtesy of Declan.

A further acceleration in the rally took indices past key moving averages and into a space with limited overhead resistance. One of the indices hardest hit by the sell off was the semiconductor index. While it hasn’t challenged July highs it did close above the neckline and 50-day MA. Technicals also finished today net bullish.

Gains in the semiconductor index will help push the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to new 52-week highs. Measured moves project the April-July rally on to August swing lows: for the Nasdaq, this sets a target around 4,870 and the Nasdaq 100 it’s 4,425.

The Russell 2000 also managed a close above its 50-day MA. It’s now in a void of resistance until it gets to 1,210. Technicals are improving, but haven’t yet reversed all bearish markers.

The S&P will soon be like the Nasdaq. It hasn’t yet made a new all time high, but one more days worth of gains will do it.

As for tomorrow, bulls have control. Pullbacks will offer buying opportunities as the swing low develops as support.  Tech averages are best positioned for gains, but the Russell 2000 has plenty of room to run before encountering resistance.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.

S&P 500 Snapshot: The Tuesday Drift Higher

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The big pre-market news was the August report on July inflation. The year-over-year 1.99% headline and 1.86% core rates will not be disturbing to the Jackson Hole inflation watchers. The S&P 500 rallied at the open and drifted higher through the day, closing with a gain of 0.50%, just off its 0.55% afternoon high. The index is up 7.21% year-to-date and only 0.32% off its record close.

Treasuries were little changed. The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.40%, up 1 bp from yesterday’s close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

As we can see on the daily chart, the mini-correction (-3.94%) from the July 24th record close is nearly over. Volume remains light as we approach the Fed Jackson Hole event on Thursday and Friday.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

The chart below incorporates a percent-off-high calculation to illustrate the drawdowns greater than 5% since the trough in 2009.

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For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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A Long-Term Look at Inflation

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The August Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the July year-over-year inflation rate at 1.99%, off the May 19-month high of 2.13%. It is well below the 3.87% average since the end of the Second World War and 16 percent below its 10-year moving average.

For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the CPI excluding food and energy, see this monthly feature.

For better understanding of how CPI is measured and how it impacts your household, see my Inside Look at CPI components.

For an even closer look at how the components are behaving, see this X-Ray View of the data for the past six months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has compiled CPI data since 1913, and numbers are conveniently available from the FRED repository (here). My long-term inflation charts reach back to 1872 by adding Warren and Pearson’s price index for the earlier years. The spliced series is available at Yale Professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller’s website. This look further back into the past dramatically illustrates the extreme oscillation between inflation and deflation during the first 70 years of our timeline. Click here for additional perspectives on inflation and the shrinking value of the dollar.

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Alternate Inflation Data

The chart below (click here for a larger version) includes an alternate look at inflation *without* the calculation modifications the 1980s and 1990s (Data from

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On a personal note, I believe the current BLS method of calculating inflation is reasonably sound. As a first-wave Boomer who raised a family during the double-digit inflation years of the 1970s and early 1980s, I see nothing today that is remotely like the inflation we endured at that time. Moreover, government policy, the Federal Funds Rate, interest rates in general and decades of major business decisions have been fundamentally driven by the official BLS inflation data, not the alternate CPI. For this reason I view the alternate inflation data as an interesting but ultimately useless statistical series.

That said, I…
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Inflation: A Six-Month X-Ray View

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. I’ve also included each of the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation.

We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components. Some of us have higher transportation costs, others medical costs, etc.

A conspicuous feature in the table through the latest data is the volatility of energy, essentially the fluctuation in gasoline prices, which is also reflected in Transportation.

Here is the same table with month-over-month numbers (not seasonally adjusted). The change in energy costs is clearly illustrated, reflected here too in transportation.

The Trends in Headline and Core CPI

The chart below shows Headline and Core CPI for urban consumers since 2007. Core CPI excludes the two most volatile components, food and energy. I’ve highlighted the 2% to 2.5% range that the FOMC targeted in their December 12, 2012 press release, although the Fed has traditionally used the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index as their preferred inflation gauge.

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Year-over-year Core CPI (the blue line) made a moderate arc above the 2% benchmark beginning October of 2011. It dropped below the 2% – 2.5% range in August of 2012, but grazed the bottom of that range in February and July of last year. Core CPI has been below 2% for 23 of the last 27 months. The more volatile Headline CPI has spent 24 of the past of the past 27 months under the 2% lower benchmark. Much of the volatility in the past few years has been the result of broad swings in gasoline prices (more on gasoline here).

For a longer-term perspective, here is a column-style breakdown of the inflation categories showing the change since 2000.

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Note: For additional information on the component composition of the Consumer Price Index, see my Inside the Consumer Price Index.

S&P 500 Price Projections Based on Earnings: New Update & Slight Change

Courtesy of Doug Short.

With 95% of Q2 2014 earnings reported, let’s update the previous S&P 500 Price Projections through December 2015 using forecasted earnings previously (available here). As a reminder, simply by tracking the forecasted earnings, we can “picture” where the S&P 500 would trade out to December 2015 based on historical data.

The following data, derived from Standard & Poor’s Senior Analyst Howard Silverblatt’s Excel file, shows the correlation over several time periods between the average of monthly closes and what the “projected price” would have been using a proprietary formula. Previously, I used a quarterly method to provide a projected price, but I adapted the math to accommodate a more timely monthly projection.

For example, in the table above, the 3 year average operating earnings possessed a 0.855 correlation with the actual price of S&P 500 (1 would equal 100% correlated, -1 would equal 100% inverse correlation). By simply averaging the last 3 years (12 quarterly earnings reports), the change in the S&P 500 index over time (1989 to present) nearly matched the change in operating earnings over the same time period (0.855 correlation). The second column calculates what the S&P should have been based on the 3 year average (S&P 500 Projected Price) and correlated with the actual S&P at 0.83 (still – very highly correlated). However, moving into the 1 year average operating earnings and 1 year S&P 500 equivalent produced a supercharged 97.5 percent correlation.

And the next question that always occurs – what the heck do I do with the information? And here is the chart…

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While the indicator resembles a moving average, the S&P projected price tracks the S&P 500 average of monthly closes price relatively well. The calculation involves using an average Price to Earnings ratio for the same time period and multiplying that by the average earnings (for the mathematically oriented, insert the word “mean” into the “average” spots). To extend the projection out to December 2015, we use the average earnings growth using 1989 to present quarter over quarter change in growth.

However, one must be leery using “earnings forecast” because these are normally downwardly revised and exogenous events (such as we saw in 2008) may dramatically change earnings.

Additionally, by calculating when…
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The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: This commentary has been updated to include Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July.

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:

  • Industrial Production
  • Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Payments)
  • Nonfarm Employment
  • Real Retail Sales
  • The Latest Indicator Data

    With this morning’s release of the July Consumer Price Index, we can now calculate July Real Retail Sales. I reported the nominal Retail Sales last week, which showed July was flat month-over-month (up 0.04% to two decimal places), down from 0.2% in June. When we adjust for inflation, July sales came in at a -0.05%, a deeper contraction than the previous month’s -0.02%. In fact, when we look at the real sales data, chained in constant July 2014 dollars, we see that this indicator has essentially flatlined since March. This is most volatile of the Big Four indicators, and the recent trend is rather disturbing.

    More optimistic, at least on the surface, was last week’s Industrial Production (IP) for July. In the chart of the Big Four since the end of the last recession, this one is the stellar performer, up 24.7% in the headline indicator. In fact, since January 1960, it’s up an incredible 333%. Note, however, that the Fed data from which this index is calculated is not adjusted for inflation.

    The thumbnails below give us a side-by-side comparison of the plain vanilla Industrial Production (left) and Real Industrial Production (right), which is adjusted using the Producer Price Index. Click on either for a larger version.

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    Let’s go one step further with our IP adjustment. What if we factor in the nation’s…
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    What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index

    Courtesy of Doug Short.

    Note from dshort : The charts in this commentary have been updated to include today’s Consumer Price Index news release for the July data.

    The Fed justified a previous round of quantitative easing “to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate” (full text). In effect, the Fed has been trying to increase inflation, operating at the macro level. But what does an increase in inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?

    Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart below illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U, which I’ll refer to hereafter as the CPI.

    The slices are listed in the order used by the BLS in their tables, not the relative size. The first three follow the traditional order of urgency: food, shelter, and clothing. Transportation comes before Medical Care, and Recreation precedes the lumped category of Education and Communication. Other Goods and Services refers to a bizarre grab-bag of odd fellows, including tobacco, cosmetics, financial services, and funeral expenses. For a complete breakdown and relative weights of all the subcategories of the eight categories, here is a useful link.

    The chart below shows the cumulative percent change in price for each of the eight categories since 2000.

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    Not surprisingly, Medical Care has been the fastest growing category. At the opposite end, Apparel has actually been deflating since 2000. Another unique feature of Apparel is the obvious seasonal volatility of the contour.

    Transportation is the other category with high volatility — much more dramatic and irregular than the seasonality of Apparel. Transportation includes a wide range of subcategories. The volatility is largely driven by the Motor Fuel subcategory. For a closer look at gasoline, see this chart in my weekly gasoline update.

    The Ominous Shadow Category of Energy

    The BLS does not lump energy costs into an expenditure category. Instead, it includes energy subcategories in Housing in addition to the fuel…
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    Ahead of Jackson Hole, July Inflation Remained Subdued

    Courtesy of Doug Short.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July CPI data this morning. Year-over-year unadjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.99%, which the BLS rounds to 2.0%, little unchanged from the previous month’ 2.07%. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.86% (rounded to 1.9%), essentially unchanged from the previous month’s 1.93%. The non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month Headline and Core numbers were fractionally negative (-0.04% and -0.01%, respectively. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the all items index posted its smallest increase since February. When we dig deeper, we see that food prices rose but were offset by declines in the energy subcomponents. Inflation remains subdued as we approach the Fed’s Jackson Hole summit later this week.

    Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted data monthly data:

    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

    The all items index posted its smallest seasonally adjusted increase since February; the indexes for shelter and food rose, but were partially offset by declines in the energy index and the index for airline fares. The food index rose 0.4 percent in July, with the food at home index also rising 0.4 percent after being unchanged in June. The decrease in the energy index was its first since March and featured declines in the indexes of all the major energy components.

    The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in July, the same increase as in June. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for medical care, new vehicles, personal care, and apparel all increased in July. Along with the index for airline fares, the indexes for recreation, for used cars and trucks, for household furnishings and operations, and for tobacco all declined in July.

    The all items index increased 2.0 percent over the last 12 months, a slight decline from the 2.1 percent figure for the 12 months ending June. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as for the 12 months ending June. The energy index has increased 2.6 percent, and the

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    Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

    "Hello PSW Members –

    This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

    Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is."

    Thank you for you time!


    Chart School

    Richard Wyckoff SP500 price forecast

    Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

    Richard Wyckoff used Point and Figure charts to target price zones where the energy or 'effect' from a 'cause' or consolidation would run out. Time to see what it says about the current SP500 price advance.

    Reference: The Wyckoff Method Applied in 2009: A Case Study of the US Stock Market

    Within the pdf linked above, page down to page 34 or page 6, figure 8. There you see the forecast price zone of the SP500 from the top in 2007 to a bottom in 2009. The forecast is of price only, and not time. It was very accurate.


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