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Leading Sectors Breaking Down – Internet & Social Stocks

Leading Sectors Breaking Down – Internet & Social Stocks

Courtesy of Chris Vermeulen

In July I showed talked about the Russell 2K index and how it was underperforming the broad market. I explained what it likely meant for the US stock market this fall. The outlook was negative, just in case you were wondering.

This week I will discuss two sectors that have often lead the broad market in rallies and corrections over the years. These sectors have underperformed the broad market much like small cap stocks. This does not bode well for investors going into fall.

In the analysis below I use Bollinger bands and trendlines. Using only these tools keeps the charts clean and easy to understand. In short, a broken trendline is the first early warning that a trend may be coming to an end. The second is the break of a Bollinger band.

A combination of these can be taken as a trend reversal and the likely start of a multi-week or month correction, depending on your chart's time-frame. I use a similar method to identify trends with my automated futures trading system.

INTERNET INDEX FUND ANALYSIS

fdn-chart

 

SOCIAL MEDIA INDEX FUND ANALYSIS

Futures Trading System

My outlook on exactly what these two charts are pointing to is as follows:

Because we have seen the support trend lines broken to the downside this month, and the fact that price has pushed more than two standard deviations from its norm, the odds favor more downside.

Based on years of experience trading price patterns and breakouts, I've learned that when price breaks to the downside and triggers fear among investors, it is typically the best time to sell short and profit from falling prices. Fear is the most powerful force in the stock market and it must be traded much differently than "greed"--which is in action when prices are rising.

Although the broad market is still within its uptrend, the two underperforming sectors, social media and internet, may continue to sell lower. Once the broad market rolls over, these sectors should fall even faster to the downside. Until then, they could chop around and grind their way down.

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Gasoline Price Update: Down Another Nickel

Courtesy of Doug Short.

It’s time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, Regular and Premium both fell five cents for the second consecutive week and are now at their lowest averages since early February. Regular is up 16 cents and Premium 16 cents from their interim lows during the second week of last November.

According to GasBuddy.com, only one state (Hawaii) has Regular above $4.00 per gallon, unchanged from last week, and no states are averaging above $3.90, down from one state (Alaska) last week. South Carolina has the cheapest Regular at $3.08.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here’s a visual answer.

Click to View
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The next chart is a weekly chart overlay of West Texas Intermediate Crude, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO). WTIC closed today at 90.87, down from 92.79 this time last week and the lowest since January.

The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.

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The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).

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Here are some additional commentaries related to gasoline prices:





Chart o’ the Day: The Dollar’s Impact on the S&P 500

Chart o’ the Day: The Dollar’s Impact on the S&P 500

Courtesy of 

Here’s a really key insight from my friend Ari Wald, technical analyst at Oppenheimer Asset Management…

You’re hearing a lot about divergences right now because the internals on the S&P 500, here at all-time highs again, are blatantly bad. The same is going on market-wide. Only 65 percent of the S&P 1500’s stocks are above their 200-day moving averages (or, in strong uptrends) vs the 80 percent reading we saw during the July high.

Two caveats:

1. We’ve seen this divergence before this year, it’s resolved itself to the upside each time as the “market of stocks” eventually caught up with the stock market in the end. Guys fading the market’s price this year because of its internal signals have been repeatedly burned. In some cases, a plunge in stocks above their 200-day moving averages has even been a buy signal, rather than a sign of imminent breakdown!

2. Upon closer inspection, it’s really two sectors driving the weakness – as Ari reveals, oil stocks and commodity names are the reason why there are significantly less stocks currently in an uptrend. He looks at the S&P 1500 below to capture the mid/small markets as well here, but the same applies for the big caps.

Here’s what’s really going on:

We use the % of stocks above their 200-day m.a. as a proxy for the % of stocks in an uptrend, and unconfirmed readings are a concern. For instance, the S&P 500 is out to a new all-time high, but the % of stocks in an uptrend (S&P 1500) has dropped to 65% vs. 80% in July. On closer inspection, Energy (32% fewer stocks in an uptrend since July) and Materials (22% fewer stocks) have been chief sources for this decline in participation as a strong US dollar has weighed on these commodity-related sectors.

Screen Shot 2014-09-22 at 7.44.23 AM

Josh here – as you can see, the 15 percent drop-off in uptrending stocks is being skewed much higher by a handful of sectors. These sectors are being largely impacted by the strong dollar trend. I’d throw in the industrials into this as well – they have to


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Daily Market Commentary: ‘Bull Trap’ Confirmed in Semiconductor Index

Courtesy of Declan.

The failed breakout in the Semiconductor Index expanded with another loss above 1%.  Monday’s loss took it below the 20-day MA, kept the MACD ‘sell’ trigger in play and generated a CCI ‘sell’ trigger.


Other indices similarly pulled away from Friday’s sell off, but not enough to break support. The S&P remained above 1,987 and will see a test tomorrow.  Technicals are mixed: the Directional Movement System is bullish, but the MACD has been bearish for most of September.

The Nasdaq didn’t ‘bull trap’, but it’s heading to a combined test of 4,485 trading range and the 20-day MA.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 broke below channel support in an acceleration of the losses from August’s highs.  A move to the May 1,090 swing low is the next key target.  The July swing low may/may not play a role in the move down.

Tomorrow may see support tests and offer rebound opportunities. Best of these plays could be the Nasdaq given the convergence of the 50-day MA and 4,485 key support. If bears take control of morning action, then a Semiconductor push to its 50-day MA is a better option as a short/long switch.

Accepting KIVA gift certificates to help support the work on this blog. All certificates gifted are converted into loans for those who need the help more.





Understanding the CFNAI Components

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which I reported on earlier today, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and Income
  • Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
  • Personal Consumption and Housing
  • Sales, Orders, and Inventories

The complete list is available here in PDF format.

In today’s Chicago Fed update, we learned that two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from July, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in August. Personal Consumption and Housing continues to be the significantly underperforming category. Let’s now take a look at the historical context, focusing on the less volatile 3-month moving average of the components.

A chart overlay of the complete multi-decade span of all four categories, even if we use the three-month moving averages, is quite challenging for visual clarity:

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So here is a close-up view since 2000:

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But a snapshot of the 21st century contains only two recessions, so it’s unclear how the individual components have behaved in during the seven recessions since the 1967 starting point for this data series.

Here is a set of charts showing each of the four components since 1967. Because of the highly volatile nature of the data, the charts are based on three-month moving averages, a smoothing strategy favored by the Chicago Fed economists. I’ve also highlighted the values for the months that the NBER subsequently identified as recession starts.

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There’s a lot to digest in the individual charts. Clearly the first two (Production and Income and Employment,…
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Analyzing Earnings as of Q2 2014

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


With the second quarter earnings report for the S&P 500 now in, I can update my quarterly analysis of earnings and estimate trends through the 2nd quarter of 2014.

Second quarter results were considerably better than the Q1 as activity rebounded following the exceptionally cold winter season. For the quarter, operating earnings rose from $27.32 per share to $29.45 which translates into a quarterly increase of 7.8%. While operating earnings are widely discussed by analysts and the general media; there are many problems with the way in which these earnings are derived due to one-time charges, inclusion/exclusion of material events, share buybacks and accounting gimmickry to “beat earnings.”

Therefore, from a historical valuation perspective, reported earnings are much more relevant in determining market over/undervaluation levels. On a reported basis, earnings improved from $24.79 to $24.87 or 9.49% from the first quarter.

The rise in both operating and reported earnings for the quarter brought the trailing twelve months earnings per share to $111.94 from $108.85, a 2.84% increase, on an operating basis. The trailing twelve month reported earnings rose by $2.36 from $100.85 to $103.21, an increase of 2.34%.

Importantly, the rebound in Q2 earnings is consistent with the rebound/slowdown recovery that has been the hallmark of the economic cycle following the financial crisis. Historically, these large rebounds in earnings have tended to be one-quarter events followed by a marked slowdown in subsequent growth rates.

Click to View

However, while the headline earnings numbers were strong in the second quarter; digging into the details revealed a bit more troubling picture.

Always Optimistic

There is one commodity that Wall Street always has in abundance, “optimism.” When it comes to earnings expectations, estimates are always higher regardless of the trends of economic data. The problem is that the difference between expectations and reality has been quite dramatic. In a recent missive entitled the “4 Tools Of Corporate Profitability” I stated:

“There is no doubt that corporate profitability has surged from the recessionary lows. However, if I am correct in my assessment, then the recent downturn in corporate profitability may be more than just due to an economic ‘soft patch.’ The problem with cost cutting, wage


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About That 500% Jump in Interest Rates…

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The verdict is in…

Last week, at the end of its regularly scheduled meeting, the Federal Reserve said:

1) It would continue to reduce the amount of money it creates each month. The Fed said it will be out of the money printing business by the end of this year. By that time, the Federal Reserve will have created more than $4.0 trillion new American dollars (out of thin air).

2) And when the Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities the Fed has bought mature, they will roll them over—which means they will just continue collecting interest on the securities they bought as opposed to taking the cash when they mature. (Source: “Press Release,” Federal Reserve, September 17, 2014.) I doubt the Fed has any choice on this. If the Fed doesn’t roll over the Treasuries it has bought, who would buy them when they hit the market?

The Federal Reserve also provided its economic projection on where it expects the federal funds rate, the key U.S. interest rate, to be down the road:

1) The central bank believes the U.S. economy will grow between two percent and 2.2% in 2014, then grow in the range of 2.6% to three percent in 2015. From there, it goes downhill. In 2016, the Federal Reserve projects more of the same—U.S. economic growth of between 2.6% and 2.9%. In 2017, the U.S. growth rate is projected to be sluggish and in the range of 2.3% to 2.5%. (Source: “Economic Projections,” Federal Reserve, September 17, 2014.) Hence, we are looking at four more years of slow growth.

2) A majority of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believe the federal funds rate should move into the one percent to two percent range in 2015 from its current 0.25%. Then in 2016, rates should increase to between two percent and three percent. In 2017, the range would be three percent to four percent. (Source: Ibid.)

If the Federal Reserve goes ahead with this, then by the end of 2015, interest rates would be 500% higher than today. In 2016, they would be 900% higher. By 2017, the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve would be 1,300% higher than the 0.25% they first set back in 2008.…
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Weighing the Week Ahead: Do Market Divergences Signal a Warning for Stock Investors?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


In the wake of the FOMC meeting and the IPO hype, we face a week with little new information – the lull before earnings season. This sort of vacuum makes it difficult to predict the week ahead, but I have an interesting idea:

This week will feature discussion about market divergences — gold, oil, small caps, and bitcoin are losers. Large cap stocks have been winners. Why?

A lot of buzz came from a Bloomberg article saying that 47% of NASDAQ stocks were “mired in a bear market.” This was portrayed as showing a narrowing appetite for risk and loosely links it to prospective changes in Fed policy. It is an intriguing topic for further study.

Prior Theme Recap

In my last WTWA I predicted that the media focus would be the FOMC and the potential for changing course. That was very accurate, since the Fed meeting was the center of attention through Thursday. My question of whether the Fed would change course was answered with a firm, “No.”

Feel free to join in my exercise in thinking about the upcoming theme. We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react. That is the purpose of considering possible themes for the week ahead.

Calling All (Young) Writers

The Financial Times and McKinsey and Company have joined to offer the Bracken Bower Prize for the best proposal for a book on the challenges and opportunities for growth. A prize of £15,000 will be given for the best book proposal. It is also a good way to attract a publisher for your idea. Entries close on September 30th. More information is available here.

This Week’s Theme

Whenever there is a light schedule for data and events, the market focus can easily change. We have some important housing data this week, but my sense is that many are still digesting the implications of the Fed meeting. It seemed to be a non-event, with no change in the “considerable time” language or the pace of QE tapering. Despite media efforts to coax a story out of nothing, the “spikes” in stocks and…
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Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Decelerated in August

Courtesy of Doug Short.

“Index shows economic growth decelerated in August”: This is the headline for today’s release of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, and here are the opening paragraphs from the report:

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.21 in August from +0.26 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from July, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in August.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.07 in August from +0.20 in July, marking its sixth consecutive reading above zero. August’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend. The eco- nomic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.14 in August from +0.23 in July. Forty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contri- butions to the CFNAI in August, while 40 made negative contributions. Forty-two indicators improved from July to August, while 43 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions. [Download PDF News Release]

Investing.com was looking for a headline reading of 0.33. The August

Background on the CFNAI

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed’s website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth.

The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity. I’ve added a high-low channel for the MA3 data since 2010. After hitting the top of the channel in April, it has slipped to the upper mid-range.


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US Stocks Give Up “Dovish FOMC” Gains As Russell 2000 Completes “Death Cross”

Are we looking at the beginning of a market correction? The Russell 2000 is saying yes. Time will tell whether the large cap stocks in the Dow follow the lead down--I can only see what's in front of me. I'm poor at anticipating moves to the right of the present…

US Stocks Give Up "Dovish FOMC" Gains As Russell 2000 Completes "Death Cross"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

The narrative just a few short days ago was how 'dovish' the Fed was (despite their apparent hawkishness) and that clearly they would not act unless they were highly confident of future US economic growth (which they have shown almost perfect ineptitude in forecasting). The savior of any weakness in this meme was 'well the rest of the world will take up the money-printing mantle'… but that narrative broke this weekend. Only The Dow (for now) is still holding gains post-FOMC with the Russell 2000 down over 2% since then having completed its 'death cross' today.

Stocks have given up their post-FOMC gains…

 

The Russell 2000 completes its death cross…

Charts: Bloomberg

 





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

Leading Sectors Breaking Down - Internet & Social Stocks

Leading Sectors Breaking Down – Internet & Social Stocks

Courtesy of Chris Vermeulen

In July I showed talked about the Russell 2K index and how it was underperforming the broad market. I explained what it likely meant for the US stock market this fall. The outlook was negative, just in case you were wondering.

This week I will discuss two sectors that have often lead the broad market in rallies and corrections over the years. These sectors have underperformed the broad market much like small cap stocks. This does not bode well for investors going into fall.

In the analysis below I use Bollinger bands and trendlines. Using only these tools keeps the charts clean and easy to understand. In short, a broken tr...



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Chart School

Gasoline Price Update: Down Another Nickel

Courtesy of Doug Short.

It's time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, Regular and Premium both fell five cents for the second consecutive week and are now at their lowest averages since early February. Regular is up 16 cents and Premium 16 cents from their interim lows during the second week of last November.

According to GasBuddy.com, only one state (Hawaii) has Regular above $4.00 per gallon, unchanged from last week, and no states are averaging above $3.90, down from one state (Alaska) last week. South Carolina has the cheapest Regular at $3.08.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here's a visual answer....



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Zero Hedge

#OccupyAndOrFloodWallStreetForClimateChange Takes On NYSE TV Studio - Live Feed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It has been several years since the disjointed, confused, and extremely disorganized Occupy Wall Street movement made any headlines. Alas, in the interim, the career prospects of those who comprise its up prime age demographic have gone nowhere but down while inversely impacting the nominal free time of said cohort, which is why we were somewhat surprised it took as long as it did for the same individuals, best known for camping out in Zucotti Park (until it started snowing of course), to stage a daring comeback. Which they did today, following a weekend in which New York Ci...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls leverage hopeful news to launch a tepid breakout attempt

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks were able to leverage some optimistic news and dovish words from the Fed to take another stab at an upside breakout attempt last week. Although readers have sometimes accused me of being a permabull, I am really a realist, and the reality is that the slogans like “The trend is your friend” and “Don’t fight the Fed” are truisms. And they have worked. Nevertheless, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback, especially given the weak technical condition of small caps.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector ...



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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: Wunderlich Lowers Price Target On American Eagle Energy Corp

Courtesy of Benzinga.

In a note issued Monday morning, Wunderlich Securities lowered its price target on American Eagle Energy Corp (NYSE: AMZG) from $15 to $13, while maintaining a Buy rating.

The firm commented, "We factored in a lower production forecast for the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015, a higher cost of borrowing, and higher debt load. As a result, we are lowering our NAV from $15 to $13 per share."

To highlight the lower production, Wunderlich noted the company is expecting production to peak earlier than expected in the fourth quarter and at a lower amount than previous forecast.

This change in production has caused Wunderlich to drastically lower its 2014 and 2015 EPS estimates from $0.30 and $0.44 to $0.06 and $0.14, respectively.

Lates...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 22nd, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest issue of Stock World Weekly. Enjoy! Please sign in using your PSW user name and password. (Or take a free trial.)

...

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Option Review

IV Implodes On 4-hour YHOO Options As BABA Commences Trading

Investors are dumping shares in Yahoo, sending the stock down 5.0% to $40.08 after shares in Alibaba made their debut on the floor of the NYSE just before midday. Shares in BABA for their part initially traded up to a high of $99.70, a near 47% increase over the IPO price of $68.00. Typically, one would expect put options that are 5% out of the money with roughly 4-hours left to trade to see waning implied volatility. But, at the start of the trading session and ahead of the first trade for BABA, the Sep 19 ’14 40.0 strike put options were trading with 271% volatility or $0.30 per contract amid uncertainty as to how the start of trading for Alibaba would take shape.

...

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Market Shadows

Selling PVD

Selling PVD

Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. (PVD) shares will not be trading on the NY Stock Exchange after today. Tomorrow, shares will be harder to sell. Strangely, I wasn't able to find information on the internet, but Paul just sent me a copy of the email he received from Interactive Brokers.

We're selling PVD out of the Virtual Portfolio today at $87.18. 

More details:

From: Interactive Brokers   dated July 18, 2014

Holders of AFP Provida S.A. American Depository Receipts (ADR) are advised that the Company has elected to terminate the Deposit Agreement effective 2014-09-18.

As of the te...



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Promotions

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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

Making Sense of Bitcoin

By James Black at International Man

Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.

Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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