Archive for the ‘Members’ Corner’ Category

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

Tom Petty, Staple of Rock Radio With the Heartbreakers, Dies at 66

Tom Petty, a songwriter who melded California rock with a deep, stubborn Southern heritage, died on Monday after suffering cardiac arrest. He was 66 and had lived in Los Angeles.

Tony Dimitriades, Mr. Petty’s longtime manager, confirmed the death.

Recording with the Heartbreakers, the band he formed in the mid-1970s, and on his own, Mr. Petty wrote pithy, hardheaded songs that gave a contemporary clarity to 1960s roots. His voice was grainy and unpretty, with a Florida drawl that he proudly displayed.

Mr. Petty’s songs were staples of FM rock radio through decades, and with hits like “Refugee,” “Don’t Come Around Here No More,” “Free Fallin’” and “Into the Great Wide Open,” Mr. Petty sold millions of albums and headlined arenas and festivals well into 2017. He played the Super Bowl halftime show in 2008 and entered the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 2002. But his songs stayed down-to-earth, with sturdy guitar riffs carrying lyrics that spoke for underdogs and ornery outcasts. In his 1989 hit, “I Won’t Back Down,” he sang, “You can stand me up at the gates of hell / But I won’t back down.” More > 

Earlier today, confusion,

CBS Erroneously Reports Tom Petty’s Death, Setting Off an Outpouring

The news ricocheted around the web immediately: CBS News was reporting that Tom Petty was dead.

It kicked off widespread reaction and remembrances on Monday, with star singers like John Mayer, Shania Twain and Jon Bon Jovi all paying tribute to Mr. Petty on Twitter.

It soon emerged, however, that the news was premature.

When CBS reported Mr. Petty’s death on Twitter, preceded by a capitalized banner “JUST IN,” the network attributed the news to the Los Angeles Police Department. In an article published online, there was no mention of the L.A.P.D., merely the phrase “CBS News has confirmed.” (CBS later deleted the tweet.)  More >

We will miss you, Tom Petty.





“Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks” But TNN Says “Not So Fast”

What do you think? (There's a comment section below smiley)

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

******

Rebutal by The Nattering Naybob, Seeking Alpha: 

Left And Citron: The Boy Who Cried Wolf?

Excerpt:

Citron Shorts Again?

The latest target for infamous "activist" short seller Andrew Left and Citron Research is Ubiquiti (UBNT). After placing their short bets, the strategy involves launching torpedoes with intent to sink the stock, by publishing accusations of fraud or abuse. There is nothing illegal in these activities, as long as what Left and Citron publish is not fraudulent.

Before analyzing Citron's allegations of fraud, we will first exert some quick and dirty due diligence. An examination of Ubiquiti's debt service and short term liquidity situation should reveal whether they are in immediate danger.

Debt Service?

Below, UBNT debt to equity ratio is 43%, only a concern if earnings to interest payments ratios are not acceptable.

Courtesy SimplyWallSt

From Q4 2017 financials: income from operations 290M/4.8M = net interest expense = 60X, which is quite safe from a debt servicing standpoint.

Liquidity?

Below, near term liquidity measured as short term liabilities vs assets.

Courtesy SimplyWallSt

From the financials: Cash 604M; Current Liabilities 96M; Long Term Debt: 242M; Retained Earnings: 601M.

It appears that should adverse conditions arise, UBNT can readily meet expenses and debt (short and long term) with liquid assets.

Scratching the surface with the quick and dirty analysis above, with regard to debt service and liquidity, or can you pay the bills and debt, even if the note is called, there doesn't seem to be much to worry about here.

Taking It In The Shorts?

In the markets, some investors make it or take it, in the longs and or shorts. Below, Citron contends that the existing UBNT customer base does not "constitute a core competitive advantage". We address this further below.

Full article here >





Why we need to act on climate change now (updated)

 

Why we need to act on climate change now (updated 9-13-17)

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Updated in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on September 13 , 2017.

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, he devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. Jan’s Climate Portal provides extensive background and references. In this interview, Jan discusses climate change and how inaction is threatening our future. (Click here for pdf version.)

Ilene: Hi Jan. Thank you for taking the time to share your ideas on global warming. . . I’m looking at a graph, along with the current atmospheric CO 2 level that you and Yan Zhang modeled for the Bloomberg Carbon Clock, which shows just how sharply CO 2 levels have increased mostly in only the last 50 years relative to the last 12 thousand years. And I can see that CO 2 levels are currently about 400 ppm – and that at 450 ppm, the text says we will reach a “ danger zone.” What happens when CO 2 levels reach 450 ppm? Why is that level considered the "danger zone?"

 

Screenshot of Bloomberg’s Carbon Clock

 

Jan: If we can limit CO 2 to 450 ppm, it is likely that we can limit the average global temperature increase to around 2 degrees Centigrade or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels. This is the goal of the Paris Agreement, designed to leave a livable planet to our descendants.

Ilene: Do you think we will be successful?

Jan: With present policies, it does not look like we will achieve that goal. Action must be increased urgently to avoid increasingly severe climate impacts on our grandchildren and their descendants. Solving the climate problem is prerequisite to any long-term solution to the many serious issues facing humanity today. Climate change is actually the outstanding moral, ethical, and survival issue of our time.

We are in a “ danger zone” now.


continue reading





Advice for Trump on how to avoid a nuclear war

 

Former Mexican President Shows Trump How To Avoid Nuclear War In Hilarious Video

By Carolina Moreno

The former Mexican president sat down with comedy site Super Deluxefor a new video, released Wednesday, in which he gave Trump some tips on how to avoid starting a nuclear war. 

[More here.]





Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers, Third Edition. Roger writes, "Sapolsky is perhaps my favorite atheist. His research into stress and depression is as beautiful as it is almost terrifying. He somehow manages to put complex biology in a context that is instantly relatable. Personally I put a Creator into the equation but Sapolsky expands my frame of reference and I am very grateful. His book, Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers, should be required reading for all humans before they launch out into the world like prey on the Savanah.

 





Inside Russia’s Social Media War on America – TIME

 





The Deep State

 

What is "The Deep State"? According to Wikipedia, "The concept of a deep state is that there exists a coordinated effort by career government employees and others to influence state policy without regard for democratically elected leadership." Originally, the term referred to entrenched shadow governments of countries like Turkey and Russia.

Conspiracy theorists and Trump supporters often use "deep state," with conspiratorial undertones, to refer to intelligence officers and government officials who use covert tactics, such as leaking information, to undermine the president (or control the world, depending on the purpose). 

In the article below, David Brin discusses the concept of "deep state" and how the term has been co-opted by Trump and the far-right to malign "every profession in U.S. society that deals in facts and knowledge." 

The Deep State

Courtesy of David BrinContrary Brin

[David Brin is an astrophysicist whose international best-selling novels include The PostmanEarth, and Existence. Dr. Brin serves on advisory boards (e.g. NASA's Innovative and Advanced Concepts program or NIAC) and speaks or consults on a wide range of topics. David Brin's nonfiction book about the information age – The Transparent Society – won the Freedom of Speech Award of the American Library Association.]

"Deep State" is a buzz phrase being used by the confederacy to explain the hostility they face, from every profession in U.S. society that deals in facts and knowledge. Their narrative is that these professions — the same ones that were maligned for decades in right wing media, from science, teaching, economics, skilled labor and journalism to the civil service, law professionals, medical doctors and judges — have colluded to create a truth-bending, Orwellian cabal. And now, note two of the last knowledge castes have been added — members of the Intelligence Community (IC) and the U.S. Military Officer Corps (MOC).  

This Deep State – the story goes – has been responsible for both liberal tyranny and American decline from greatness. (See Is Michael Flynn the first casualty of a “deep state” coup? It’s not unthinkable.) 

Never mind that these are the same professions that empowered the great burst of creativity and invention and entrepreneurial drive that multiplied our wealth a…
continue reading





Selling our Telecom position

John Hempton explains why he is selling Telecom. Does anyone have any thoughts on his thesis/broken thesis?

Selling our Telecom position

Courtesy of John Hempton, Bronte Capital

Several people on twitter and some in person have asked me for an update on my very bullish position on Verizon – especially since the results were not as good as expected last quarter.

I promised I would be forthcoming – but that I wanted to spell it out to our clients first. This is an extract from a client letter.

I want to start with the original bull thesis.

The original thesis

The original thesis came from watching Randall Stephenson (the CEO of AT&T) talk at a Milken Conference in 2012. The original recording is here. The relevant portion of the video starts at about minute 18.

Randall Stevenson tells a story of the iPhone’s introduction. The introduction of smart phones ran the company out of capacity in parts of country. [Apple offered the iPhone exclusively through AT&T in the USA.]

In New York the problems were intense. The complaint in New York was that the iPhone was a great phone so long as you accepted you could not use it as a phone. Jon Stewart mocked the coverage with unusual brutality on the Daily Show (link).

AT&T solved this by more and more capital expenditures. At the time, capex ran at around US$20 billion per annum. AT&T was – other than the government – the single biggest capital spending entity in the US.

Stephenson (speaking in 2012) said that the same problem would recur as usage continued to grow massively. But this time Stephenson argued it is different. He asserted that AT&T would not be able to solve this problem by more capital equipment. Spectrum congestion was inevitable.

He saw this as apocalyptic, but we saw potential pricing power and improving profitability.

We were doing simple arithmetic and getting very large numbers. Most Americans if given a choice between their pay-tv provider and their smart phone would choose the smart phone, but they currently pay more for their pay-TV.

We figured


continue reading





How Investors Get Tricked by Yield Products

It the article below, the "high-yield closed fund" that author Eric Newman constructs seems slightly like what a Bernie Madoff Fund might look like, before the investors started asking for their money back. 

How Investors Get Tricked by Yield Products

Courtesy of 

I want to send you over to Eric Newman’s shredding of a popular closed-end fund, which purportedly offers a 20%-plus yield to investors so that you can learn about one of the worst conventions of the investment biz. Eric is the CIO and partner of TFS Capital.

As rates rise (if they rise?) a lot of this type of thing will come back to haunt the investor class and the brokers who’ve been pitching it to people. It’s going to be ugly. You can protect yourself by understanding how the sausage is made.

It’s so good I won’t even excerpt. Just go:

Designing a bizarre Closed-End Fund (TFS Capital)





On the Climate Change Risk Management, the Paris Agreement & the Clean Power Plan

Concerned about global warming? Send your thoughts to the EPA and tell Trump that you support the Clean Power Plan.

Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OA-2017-0190 at http://www.regulations.gov

From the U.S. Federal Register website: In accordance with Executive Order 13777, “Enforcing the Regulatory Reform Agenda,” EPA is seeking input on regulations that may be appropriate for repeal, replacement, or modification. Comments must be received on or before May 15, 2017.

(See also Previous comments"TIPS for effective comments." Proposed EPA cuts. Commentary on Trump's dangerous climate Executive Order.)

To learn more about climate change risk management and the Paris Agreement, watch this discussion by Dr. Jan Dash. Jan Dash is author of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach and over 60 scientific papers. He is also the Managing Editor for the Climate Portal.  

Resources

The Climate Portal has a variety of resources and links for business and climate change. Business, spurred by investors, is waking up to the material risks of climate change. The transition to the huge opportunity of the distributed energy economy is underway. This will mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, if done with all deliberate speed. The future of our grandchildren depends on the success of the renewables transition.  The good news is that the renewables train has left the station. The climate contrarians/deniers may try, but they cannot stop it. Have a look. ~ Jan

Business and Climate Change (main page)

Climate Economics

Carbon Finance 

Non-fossil Renewable Energy 

Articles

News Log

****

Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement (French: Accord de Paris) is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealing with greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020. The language of the agreement was negotiated by representatives of 195 countries at the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in…
continue reading





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

World hunger is increasing thanks to wars and climate change

 

World hunger is increasing thanks to wars and climate change

Courtesy of Leah SambergUniversity of Minnesota

Smallholder agriculture in southern Ethiopia. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. Leah Samberg

Around the globe, about 815 million people – 11 percent of the world’s population – went hungry in 2016, according to the latest data from the United Nations. This was the first increase in more than 15 years.

Between 1990 and 2015, due largely to a set of sweeping initiatives by the global community, the proportion of undernourished people in the world was cut in half. In 2015, U.N. member countries adopted t...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Amazon Strikes Deal With Landlords To Install Lockers In Apartment Buildings

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Since the dawn of the e-commerce era, the largest US landlords have loudly complained about the crush of packages flooding mailrooms at apartment properties across the country.

One apartment owner went so far as to stop accepting packages altogether, while others have experimented with increasingly novel ways to process residents’ mail.

Now, Amazon is stepping in with a solution to a problem that it’s largely responsible for creating. ...



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

Marc Faber's America in Black and White

By Steve Slavin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It is truly amazing that even in our era of supposed political correctness, a respected financial advisor like Marc Faber, aka Dr. Doom, could publicly make the claim that the United States is much better off than it would have been if it had been colonized by blacks rather than whites. Even in the age of Trump, it seems that only the extreme rightwing hate groups have openly expressed such racist views.

In fairness, Faber did get one thing right: If America had been colonized by blacks instead of whites, our nation would certainly have been a very different place from what it is today.

...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

More of the Same

Courtesy of Declan.

There was little change on the day-to-day machinations of the market. The S&P is riding along upper channel resistance with technicals still bullish.


The Nasdaq is caught in a halfway house with bullish technicals and a relative advantage of the index against the S&P.


The Russell 2000 is...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

 

BDC’s Crypto Corner

By Biodieselchris

Hello fellow PSW-ers. I've been interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can...



more from Bitcoin

Insider Scoop

Subscriber Growth Strength Bolsters Netflix Q3

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NFLX The Market In 5 Minutes: Netflix, Goldman Sachs, And Morgan Stanley Keep The Earnings Beats Going ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

more from M.T.M.

Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



more from Biotech

Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

more from Our Members

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



more from Kimble C.S.

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>