Archive for the ‘Members’ Corner’ Category

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Data source: Dept. of Commerce/Bureau of Economic Research (https://www.bea.gov/index.htm)

Total market value of US produced goods and services – $18 Trillion.

GDP measures total US economic activity. Positive numbers indicate expansion; negative numbers indicate contraction, i.e., recession. In the past, there usually have been accelerated expansions coming out of recessions. That has not been the case since the Great Recession. 2% annual GDP growth, plus or minus, appears to be the new normal.

The GDP and change in GDP are "lagging" indicators meaning they tells us where we have been. Where the economy is headed falls to GDP forecasts which are regularly issued from various sources.

B. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI is used to measure inflation. The CPI measures changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for representative basket of goods and services. Latest report on the last 12 months gave a CPI reading of +2.5%. The Federal Reserve uses a different inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). CPI is based on a survey of what households are buying; PCE is based on surveys of what businesses are selling. Both measures break out "headline" and "core" numbers. Core numbers strip out housing and energy which tend to be more volatile month to month.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics- US Dept. of Labor https://www.bls.gov/

C. 10-Year Treasury Note

The Ten Year Treasury is often used as…
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Bombing – Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democrats are about as supportive of the strikes as they were under Obama, with 38 percent backing them in 2013 and 37 percent agreeing with them now, according to the Washington Post. Now 86 percent of Republican voters back the strikes, compared with the just 22 percent who did so in 2013.

This is a pretty stunning difference. Democratic views stayed solidly negative regardless of who was president. But Republican approval rates skyrocketed from 22 percent to 86 percent when Trump became president. This despite the fact that Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons was more extensive in 2013 than it was this year…  more >

I mean WTF – because you have a GOP president, strikes are now OK. Liberals a bit more consistent there.

***

SJL, "WTF" is a common (but not highly regarded) form of philosophical reasoning. Instead of looking at the outcome of an action, or examining whether the act itself is right or wrong, this less logical approach considers whether the actor is a republican or a democrat to determine whether the act is right or wrong. ~ Ilene





CAR-T & CRISPR – the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members….it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T – stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar, an Israeli immunologist at the Weizmann Institue of Science.  The basic steps are noted below in picture.  The insertion of different 'components' and the way the replication of the protein happens (Step 2; Step 2 subitem 4) yields the clinical variations that are competing in this area by the companies.    

KITE, JUNO and Novartis all have CD19 directed CAR-T technologies.  CD19 was attractive as a CAR-based target therapy because most B-cell leukemias and lymphomas express it, but normal tissue other than the B cell lineage do not.   The companies therefore have focused on CD19 first, and there are subtle difference in the way the T-cells are made.

Any modification of the immune system comes with risk, and CAR-T was no exception.  Even thought the CAR-T was hailed as a wonder treatment due to is successes in blood born cancer, it also caused some complications.  Last year, JUNO hit the wall with their lead, as it caused severe cerebral edema – cytokine storm??  This caused all the CAR-Ts to be evaluated, but in the end, only JUNO's lead was halted. Companies are continually making progress on the CAR-T front, and BLCM seems to be on the cusp of one way to get around a side effect.  

BLCM also has a CD19 directed CAR-T program, with a twist that…
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Natterings from the Naybob

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

[Click on titles for full articles.]

The American Dream: An Endangered Ethos?

At Danielle DiMartino Booth's The American Dream: An Endangered Ethos -

"It has been a dream of being able to grow to fullest development as man and woman, unhampered by the barriers which had slowly been erected in the older civilizations, unrepressed by social orders which had developed for the benefit of classes rather than for the simple human being of any and every class."  No more elegant words were ever written to ensure our ethos would never be endangered. And yet it is at risk of extinction today. It is high time we stand up for what is rightly ours and take back the American Dream for one and for all."

Ever excellent and mental viagra. Musing… Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Homes are sticks and bricks where people live their lives and raise families. All have the right to earn that dream which should not be denied by greedy serial flippers or serial landlords.

Our Corporate Anthem?

Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesdays With Morrie, it's time for Tuesdays With Trump. Over at Philstockworld… High Finance for Real People – Fun and Profits… 

Muck – "As long as we allow corporations to buy congress critters we will get more of the same."

We Natter… Sixty-nine of the world’s 100 top economic entities are now corporations instead of countries. Juristic person hood could be the biggest sham ever perpetrated on an unsuspecting and naive public. SCOTUS holding that spending money is in any way related to the core of freedom of expression, is of dubious moral character, but it gets far worse my fiends, er friends…
 

 

 

Are You Credentialed?

StJL – Ackman's Pain – "So out of a $4.6 billion investment, Pershing Square got back about $874 million."

We Nattered… Proving that even so called accredited "experts" can get drunk on their own punch bowl. We covered Ackman's bankrupt investment philosophy and felonious folly in Platform Value: The Fall?  Along those lines, re my latest, A Quick


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More Natterings

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

[Click on the titles for the full articles.]

A Quick $20 Trick?

Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:

  • Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
  • GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
  • Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.

Last Time Out

Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital, investment, jobs, wages, spending, asset bubbles and your standard of living. When any policy decision is based in false doctrine, you get distortions which can affect every facet of life. - The President's Analyst?

Weak productivity is symptomatic of a much larger problem. As for the illusion of rising wages, meaningful wage increases have not occurred in decades. The proof in that pudding can be found in one chart where both personal income and spending growth are in a steady 36 YEAR downtrend. - Mary Tyler Moore?

Due to monetary policy effects, some might be attempting to make up the difference between their wages and the cost of living. In chasing that elusive bag and buried market treasure, our theme for tonight's missive turns to a legendary character in an apropos plot…


 

Straighten Up and Fly Right?

Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesday's With Morrie, it's time for Tuesdays With Trump… 

POTUS Trump’s budget blueprint comes as a surprise. Amid an 18 percent cut to the Department of Health and Human Services — including one-fifth of the National Institutes of Health’s budget — the administration has said it will prioritize funding for important anti-HIV activities. On the domestic front, the budget calls funding for Ryan White HIV/AIDS providers — a “high priority” it wants to continue.  - VOX

Trump's Vice President Mike Pence is familiar with the programs. From Pence's 2000 website, The Pence Agenda for the 107th Congress: A Guide to Renewing the American Dream:

"Congress should support the reauthorization of the Ryan White Care Act only after completion of an audit to ensure that federal dollars were no longer being given to organizations that celebrate and encourage the


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Natterings

Check out some new posts from our friend The Nattering Naybob. 

The Big Lebowski Sequel?

Taking a "resp-shit" or "potty break" from "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo"… One of our favorite scenes from the 1998 cult classic The Big Lebowski, the ash can scene where Walter Subchak (John Goodman) eulogizes the departed Donnie (Steve Buscemi) with Jeffrey Lebowski (Jeff Bridges) looking on.

Keep reading: The Big Lebowski Sequel?

 

Captain Queeg?

Continuing on from Old Yellow Stains?, we muse in retrospect…  The troll known as DKS showed up with his own acolyte or Sancho Panza, another ass clown albeit whose asshattery was not as vile but equally inane. But here is the real kicker… I KNEW the DKS screen moniker rang a bell, went digging and found below in my SA PM Inbox…

Keep reading: Captain Queeg?

 


Summary

  • Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
  • Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
  • GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
  • Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.

 

Last Time Out

Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital, investment, jobs, wages, spending, asset bubbles and your standard of living. When any policy decision is based in false doctrine, you get distortions which can affect every facet of life. - The President's Analyst?

Weak productivity is symptomatic of a much larger problem. As for the illusion of rising wages, meaningful wage increases have not occurred in decades. The proof in that pudding can be found in one chart where both personal income and spending growth are in a steady 36 YEAR downtrend. - Mary Tyler Moore?

More here >

 





The Armchair Trader

 

The Armchair Trader

Updated 3-15-17

Courtesy of Yodi

As I've noted in my comments, I am looking for monthly and quarterly income. In contrast to the future traders on our board, I'm not looking at the progress of success every minute. With the armchair, Trader you can sit back and look at your progress once a month, while you follow your job and do other things.

In my examples below I have chosen a variety of stocks from REITs to banks and commercial companies. Regretfully in today’s market it can be hard to select stocks, mainly because so many are trading at the higher end of the scale, especially as we are facing rate hikes and market uncertainty. Phil is warning on a daily basis that the Trump balloon will pop.

Taking this in to consideration, make sure you are happy with any stock you chose and don't blindly follow my footsteps!

It is the object of this exercise to have a steady monthly income. I combine the stock dividend together with further out option plays. The option plays mainly consist of a call/put strangles or straddles. I also sometimes sell a covered call against a stock I'm holding, however using only calls reduces the monthly income accordingly.

With my trades, I'm looking for a combined monthly return on investment of 1.5 to 2% per month. If I invested $100,000, I'd be looking for a return of around $2,000 per month.

Each example below is based on 100 shares of stocks plus 1 option strangle or straddle (1 call and 1 put).

****

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc.'s (AHT) was $6.23 at the close on 3-15. It's paying $0.12 cents quarterly or 7.7% per annum. That's a return of 0.64% per month.

Selling a Sept 5/7.5 put/call strangle @ $0.50 yields a return of 1.3% per month.

The combined monthly return (dividend plus premium) is 1.95%.

****

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) was $21.75 on 3-15. It's yielding a 10.42% annual return, or $0.19 or 0.87% per month.

Selling an Oct 20/22.5 p/c strangle @ $1.40 yields a return of 0.86% per month.

The combined monthly income would be 1.73%.

***

Chimera Investment
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Unaffordable Health Care or STUPID is as Stupid Does?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob

Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesday's With Morrie, it's time for Tuesdays With Trump…  At The President's Analyst… 

Crichardt13 – Trumpcare Lite…you forgot to mention how Donald will gut healthcare,throw millions under the bus,and blow an improving budget deficit sky-high…

Kata – I think you forgot to take your meds. oops, after Obamacare fails, you wont be able to afford your meds, gulp:(

Synopsis of the current proposal: the elimination of the low cost option means no competition against the government option rate, and insurers can charge what they want. Everybody else with income or that pay taxes, their rates will skyrocket overnight. But that's not all you get…

The elimination of the low cost option means: the Urban Institute's estimate, for instance, predicts that 29.8M (not just 20 million) will lose coverage.  In any event, 20M recently covered under ACA will no longer get 75% of their insurance costs (average $1K per month, per couple) subsidized. Substituted is an income tax credit of $3.5K so they need to come up with the other $8.5K on their own. 

Simply brilliant? To take the tax credit implies you have income or pay taxes in the first place, so 20M get screwed and we get a potential 43K per annum in additional deaths as a result. And if you act now…

More here >





The Misunderstood Malthusian?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob

Superficially, Thomas Malthus postulated that at a certain point, humans would outstrip the planets resources.  With emphasis on temporal proximity, to date said theory has been proved wrong by technological advances.

Yet, for the unforeseeable future said determination is ever TBD. Because of that never ending possibility and as there is much more to the theory, Malthus is often misquoted and misunderstood.  We shall now endeavor to scratch and Natter at what we think is Malthus common sense and given the nature of man, eternal wisdom.

Although technological advances usually allow for more with less, with a growing population, mankind always hits a temporal wall or temporary limit which spawns management crisis, resource allocation and self interest decisions.  

Therefore, with a constantly growing population, increases in productivity can never fully address basic problems in distribution, and thus, necessity is the mother of invention.

While at cyclic technological impasse or limit, and until the next technological advance, which inevitably allows for further expansion of the population until the next impasse, there are two ways the distribution problem is temporarily overcome.?

Read more here >


 

This missive was inspired by and borrows from Frank W. Elwell's keynote address to the Annual Meeting of the Anthropologists and Sociologists of Kentucky, November 2, 2001, entitled Reclaiming Malthus.





Congress begins rolling back Obama’s broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the resolution.

The rules require broadband providers to secure their customers' consent before they can sell their private data to marketing agencies. That information includes your precise geolocation, financial and health data, information about your children and your social security number. In addition, the rules forbade ISPs from storing your web browsing, app usage and contents of your text messages automatically.

So your private information, everything from health and financial information will be sold to the highest bidder from your ISP. Sure social networks already do that, but you can choose not to participate. It's not like you can opt out from your ISP. So much for freedom there!





 
 
 

ValueWalk

Pershing: Despite Recent Vol shares of Fannie & Freddie "will be worth a multiple of their current price"

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pershing Square latest presentation slides

Also see 2017 letters

Ackman ’16 Letter On Fannie: “Various Scenarios” of “a … – V

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
26
?Superb restaurant brand that pioneered the “fast casual” category with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture, and powerful economic model
?Founded by Chairman and CEO Steve Ells in 1993
?High quality, simple, predictable, unlevered, free-cash-flow-generative business
?Recovering from food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which c...



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Zero Hedge

France Is 'Fixed'? - Credit Risk Collapses Most In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

French credit risk has collapsed by almost 40% this morning - the most ever - as it appears investors are satisifed that 1) Macron will win the presidency, and 2) Centrist banker/Hollande-lackey Macron will solve all of France's problems.

Notably, European VIX has plunged (back to historical norms absolutely and relative to US VIX)

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fear Index tanking, after hitting this resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX (Fear Level) over the past few years. A rally had taken place in the VIX, driving it up to falling resistance and its 50% retracement level at (1), in the chart below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

We shared the chart above last week on Twitter last week (S...



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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been an interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly i...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Now's a great time to be a stock picker (Business Insider)

Companies in the S&P 500 are moving independently of one another to an extent rarely seen, and that's good news for stock pickers.

The World’s Advanced Economies Should Think Twice About Curbing Migration (Bloomberg)

Analysis of United Nations data by Fitch Ratings shows halting immigration would drastically reduce the potential working population of Group-of-Seven nations, leaving aging societies more dependent on a smaller labor force and resulting in greater f...



more from Ilene

Chart School

The Tax Cuts are Coming! It's the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

Forgetting the traditional market news, as we began last week both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were at critical support.  A rally Monday showed those support levels held, giving bulls breathing room.  We’ll discuss this more below after we get through the more fundamental news items that transpired.   Traders seemed to breath easier on Monday seeing no escalation with North Korea and came in ready for a bit of a relief rally.

The lack of a nuclear test from North Korea over the weekend did much to reverse defensive positions adopted by traders heading into the weekend, said Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.

It was a very heavy week of S&P 500 type earnings with banks leading the way in the first half of the week. Then a series of large sized companies ac...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Wall Street gears up for busiest earnings week in years (Reuters)

Corporate America is set to unleash its biggest profit-reporting fest in at least a decade next week, with more than 190 members of the S&P 500 index .SPX delivering quarterly scorecards, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data.

Draghi Says ECB Hasn’t Seen Evidence of Durable Eurozone Infl...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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