Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

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Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Up on Saudi Commitment to Cut; U.S. Output Seen Rising (Reuters)

Oil prices settled up on Monday, as Saudi Arabia's commitments to reducing production offset a report forecasting U.S. output would again rise this year.

Italy will be the next big problem in Europe (Business Insider)

As a new year begins, we look at a key forecast that will bridge 2016 and 2017: the Italian banking crisis. In Geopolitical Futures’ 2016 forecast, we said that the focal point of Europe’s financial crisis would shift from Greece to the Italian banking system.

Portugal Bonds Falter as ECB Running Out of Eligible Debt to Buy (Bloomberg)

The central bank’s holdings of Portugal’s debt are already pushing the limit set by its own guidelines, leaving it likely to buy less this year to avoid breaking those rules. That prospect has led to a selloff in Portuguese government bonds, with 10-year yields having risen almost 40 basis points since the ECB’s December meeting to hit an 11-month high last week.

New Highs For Goldman And JPMorgan Aren't Enough To Propel Dow Above 20,000 (Forbes)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a rounded-up 20,000 when it traded as high as 19,999.63 on January 6. Wall Street and financial media thus ended last week disappointed as they have been since December 13. It appears that Dow 20,000 is a strong technical resistance.

Italy’s Downgrade Is No Buying Opportunity (The Wall Street Journal)

Ratings downgrades can be cathartic events for markets, marking a buying opportunity for bond investors. Italy’s downgrade by DBRS isn’t one of them.

Asia stocks and pound weak, brace for May's speech on Brexit stance (Reuters)

Asian stocks and the pound sagged on Tuesday as investors waited for British Prime Minister Theresa May to lay out plans to exit the European Union, which traders fear will see Britain lose access to the bloc's single market.

Saudi to launch $30-50 billion renewable energy program soon: minister (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia will launch in coming weeks a renewable energy program that is expected to involve investment of between $30 billion and $50 billion by 2023, Saudi


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil prices under pressure on doubts over output cuts (Reuters)

Oil prices were under pressure on Monday due to doubts that large oil producers will reduce production as promised and on expectations that U.S. production would increase again this year.

Shenzhen Stocks Sink Most in 10 Months in Sudden Afternoon Drop (Bloomberg)

Stocks in China’s second-largest equity market plunged the most in 10 months, underscoring the increasing fragility of the nation’s financial assets.

5 Ominous Signs for Stocks and Bonds (Bloomberg)

Watch the fund-flow data, says Eric Balchunas, and you'll have second thoughts about that post-election run in the stock market.

Our Big Mac index of global currencies reflects the dollar’s strength (The Economist)

IT IS perhaps not surprising that the worst-performing major currency in the world this year is the Turkish lira.

China Builder Delays Earnings Again After Keeping Them a Mystery for Two Years (Bloomberg)

The first property developer from China to default on dollar bonds said last week it needed more time to release earnings already delayed by about two years. It’s the kind of treatment bond investors have gotten used to.

Higher Seattle Minimum Wage Hasn't Hurt Restaurant Jobs Growth After A Year (Forbes)

Someone I know had posted a link about a fast food CEO who said that higher business growth followed minimum wage hikes in California. According to KQED, Bill Phelps, chief executive of Wetzel’s Pretzels, which has more than 100 outlets in the state, was "shocked" when business rose after a wage increase.

Excerpts from The Wall Street Journal Interview with Wolfgang Schäuble (The Wall Street Journal)

Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister of Germany since 2009, spoke with The Wall Street Journal in an hour-long interview at his Berlin office on Friday. Following are excerpts from the interview.

Germany Could Cut Corporate Tax Rate, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble Says (The Wall Street Journal)

Germany could reduce its corporate tax rate in the wake of similar moves in the U.K. and the U.S., German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said.


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Comment by craigsa620

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  1. craigsa620

    Latch I like what Warren Buffet says about owning gold; it is not really an asset as it doesn't perform any function. I believe his quote is gold doesn't do anything but sit there for you to look at. Some day we could wake up and suddenly people could decide they have no reason for this metal and it's ornamental value could be lost. Not likely, but possible.







News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Stock market’s most unloved shares send worrying signal (Market Watch)

If you’re the pessimistic type looking for an excuse to sell stocks, it may be lurking in short interest numbers, according to Bespoke Investing Group.

The price of food in the UK is going up and it shows how Brexit will make all Brits poorer (Business Insider)

It's all to do with inflation. For the last year or so, the UK has had very little consumer price inflation (CPI). That means any extra pay earned was kept by workers at its full value.

Kuwait Stocks Extend Advance as Banks Weigh on U.A.E. Markets (Bloomberg)

Kuwait’s main stock gauge, the Middle East’s best performer this year, rose for an eighth day, while shares in the United Arab Emirates fell as investors bet banks will boost provisions for bad loans.

Stocks need earnings to be flawless to keep Trump rally going (Market Watch)

An optimistic earnings season may run into the buzz saw of a self-fulfilling “sell the inauguration” prophecy if quarterly results are not near flawless in the coming week.

Oil’s Painful Cost-Squeeze Generates Output Dividend for Norway (Bloomberg)

Thanks to improvements from cheaper, faster drilling to greater regularity in the operation of production platforms, producers pumped 85,000 barrels a day more crude than expected during the past two years, or 6 percent above forecast, according to industry regulator, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Cutting Cash Would Be a Boon for the World’s Poor, Rogoff Says (Bloomberg)

The world’s poor stand to be among the “biggest beneficiaries” of the changes that would follow should cash become almost obsolete, according to Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economy professor and the author of “The Curse of Cash.”

House prices in trendy London areas like Hackney and Peckham have jumped over 50% since 2008 (Business Insider)

House price growth in once down-at-heel areas of London such as Hackney and Peckham has outpaced posh neighbourhoods such as Mayfair and Kensington since the financial crisis.

To Win Back Customers, Fashion House Fendi Thinks Small (The Wall Street Journal)

Fendi, the Italian fashion


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Yertle, the Commander-in-Chief

 

Yertle, the Commander-in-Chief

Courtesy of 

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

Dr. Seuss taught me to read. My older brother brought Seuss books home to me from the local public library because I was too young to have a library card of my own.

The Cat in the Hat, Bartholomew and the OobleckHorton Hears a Who!  — all, for better or worse, played a role in my early childhood development, a phase from which I have yet to emerge, but never mind. Yet as I watched Donald Trump’s press conference on Wednesday morning, a performance reminiscent of PT Barnum — if Barnum suffered from Attention Deficit Disorder, congenital petulance and anger management issues — I was reminded of a different Dr. Seuss masterwork:

Yertle the Turtle.

Yertle, you see, is the king of the pond “on the faraway island of Sala-ma-Sond.” But not content with the size of his smallish but prosperous domain, he orders nine other turtles to climb on one another’s backs to create a new throne much higher than before so he can have a more expansive view and rule over it all.

"All mine!" Yertle cried. "Oh, the things I now rule!

I'm the king of a cow! And I'm the king of a mule!

I'm the king of a house! And, what's more, beyond that

I'm the king of a blueberry bush and a cat!

I'm Yertle the Turtle! Oh, marvelous me!

For I am the ruler of all that I see!"

You get the picture. Except for Yertle’s Seuss-given ability to speak in anapestic tetrameter, a quality rare in turtles, our president-elect seems to share a number of his ego-driven traits, especially when he makes such grandiose pronouncements, as he did at Wednesday’s news conference, that “I will be the greatest jobs producer that God ever created.”  Meanwhile, back at Sala-ma-Sond, at the bottom of the stack, a turtle named Mack mildly complains about all the weight, which causes Yertle to demand hundreds of more turtles to lift him higher still. Mack protests again:

"Your


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

One Chart That Explains Why Traders Are Shorting Retail Stocks Like Crazy (Bloomberg)

December's U.S. retail sales figures have reinforced that the secular shift from in-store to online spending shows no signs of slowing down. Department stores now account for just 2.67 percent of all retail sales, compared to 10.44 percent for non-store retailers.

Why higher interest rates are a double-edged sword for banks (The Motley Fool)

Much of the current excitement surrounding bank stocks stems from investors' belief that interest rates will continue to rise, sending bank profits higher as well.

Coal Curbs in Asia Could Save 50,000 Lives Annually, Study Says (Bloomberg)

About 50,000 lives a year could be saved by 2030 if no new coal-fired power plants are built in Southeast Asia, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, according to a study from researchers at Harvard University and Greenpeace International.

Inflation is on the way back in the rich world, and that is good news (The Economist)

IT WAS telling that Germany, a country with a phobia of rising prices, in the first week of 2017 reported a jump in inflation. Its headline rate rose from 0.8% to 1.7% in December. After two years of unusually low price pressures, inflation across the rich world is set to revive this year.

Calendar: What investors need to know for the week ahead (The Globe And Mail)

Japan machine orders, producer price index and tertiary industry index
Euro Area trade surplus.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney speaks at London School of Economics.

2017 – Spectacular For Gold And Silver But Disaster For Bonds And Stocks (Gold Switzerland)

2017 has just started but some longer-term trend changes already seem to develop. It


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Stocks Climb With Banks as Real Estate, Energy Shares Drop (Bloomberg)

U.S. stocks advanced as quarterly earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. sent their stocks higher and offset losses in energy and real-estate companies.

Europe’s Biggest Fund Manager Says U.S. Stock Bulls Got It Wrong (Bloomberg)

Amundi SA, Europe’s largest money manager, says investors who have driven U.S. stock markets to record highs in expectation of fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration may be in for a surprise.

5 Ominous Signs for the Securities Industry (Bloomberg)

Donald Trump’s election win created a sunny day in the financial industry. The promise of deregulation has sent financial stocks up about 10 percent — almost double the gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index — and related exchange-traded funds have attracted more than $11 billion in new money.

Oil rig count falls for the first time in nearly 3 months (Business Insider)

The US oil rig count fell this week for the first time in 11 weeks, according to Baker Hughes. 

Emerging-Market Stocks Little Changed as Mexico's Peso Rallies (Bloomberg)

Emerging-market stocks and currencies were little changed after U.S. economic data bolstered the case for higher interest rates that could dim investors’ appetite for riskier assets. Mexico’s peso and Turkey’s lira rose.

One Chart That Explains Why Traders Are Shorting Retail Stocks Like Crazy (Bloomberg)

December's U.S. retail sales figures have reinforced that the secular shift from in-store to online spending shows no signs of slowing down. Department stores now account for just 2.67 percent of all retail sales, compared to 10.44 percent for non-store retailers.

What you need to know on Wall Street right now (Business Insider)

Wall Street banks kicked off fourth-quarter earnings on Friday, and the tone was pretty optimistic.

Two of the largest banks in the US, JPMorgan and Bank of America, beat analyst expectations, and JPMorgan beat on revenue expectations as well. Wells Fargo meanwhile missed on earnings in its first full quarter since its accounts scandal.


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Crude Oil Halts Four-Week Gain as OPEC Cuts Yet to Be Verified (Bloomberg)

Oil headed for its first weekly decline since December as traders waited for proof that OPEC and other producers would follow through on promises to cut production.

Europe’s Biggest Fund Manager Says U.S. Stock Bulls Got It Wrong (Bloomberg)

Amundi SA, Europe’s largest money manager, says investors who have driven U.S. stock markets to record highs in expectation of fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration may be in for a surprise.

Dollar Gives Up Earlier Gain Versus Yen Before U.S. Long Weekend (Bloomberg)

The dollar headed for its biggest weekly decline against the yen since July after erasing gains from moderate bargain-hunting earlier Friday.

Dollar recaptures lost ground after loses linked to Trump conference (Market Watch)

The dollar regained some ground against rival currencies during Asia trade Friday, with dip-buying kicking in after the greenback’s retreat following President-elect Donald Trump’s news conference on Wednesday in the U.S.

Income inequality is hitting British men hard (Business Insider)

Four times more men in low-paid jobs now work part-time compared with 20 years ago, driving inequality, according to a new study.

Asian Stocks Drop From 3-Month High as Samsung Drags Tech Shares (Bloomberg)

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell less than 0.1 percent as of 4:27 p.m. in Hong Kong, ending a four-day rising streak and capping the weekly gain at 1.6 percent. Samsung Electronics slid the most in two months, while Seven & i Holdings Co. surged the most in three years after quarterly profit beat estimates.

Retail sales rise on strong auto demand (Reuters)

Jan 13 U.S. retail sales rose solidly in December amid strong demand for automobiles, providing further evidence that the economy ended the fourth quarter with momentum and is poised for stronger growth this year.

Hong Kong’s Stocks Post Longest Weekly Advance in Five Months (Bloomberg)

Hong Kong stocks rose, with the benchmark index posting its third weekly gain, as energy companies advanced after oil rallied and investors


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Thank Trump It’s Friday – Markets Flatline Into Long Weekend

What a ride! 

On the whole, we've gone nowhere since Christmas.  The S&P Futures (/TF) were at 2,260 on 12/26 and they finished the day yesterday at 2,266 with dips and pops along the way but, ultimately, nothing happened.  Great news has already been priced in and the markets are now looking for justification to these all-time highs.  S&P earnings are expected to be up 15% in 2017 but most of that is because Trump is expected to cut taxes – not because things are getting so much better in Corporate America.

The Fed has been fairly consistent in letting people know they expect to hike rates 3 times in 2017 and 3 rate hikes are certainly not baked into this market.  We'll be getting earnings this morning from 6 Big Banks and the Financial sector is up 17% since Election Day – can they justify that kind of price action?  JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), PNC Financial (PNC), First Horizon (FHN) and First Republic (FRC) are scheduled to report, as well as BlackRock (BLK) and, so far, BLK, BAC and FHN missed on Revenues with FHN also missing on earnings with PNC beating and we're waiting for FRC and JPM.

In anticipation of disappointment in the Financials, we put up a nice hedging play using the Ultra-Short ETF (SKF) offset by a bank we thought would recover (WFC) in Monday's post.  We'll see how that plays out later today.  Our target is $33 to make $6,150 but, so far, no shockers.  Of course, I'm not sure you need a shocker to knock financials back from a 17% run, which knocked SKF back 25% over the same period.

Ah, there's JPM and they earnings are up 2% from last year but how does that justify the 2016 50% bull run from $57 to $86?  It's the same with BLK, who made $4.75 last year in Q4, when shares were $300 but now shares are $378 (26% more) with earnings hitting $5.14 (8.2% more).  That's pretty much the story for the 2016/2017 market – paying 3x for incremental earnings!  

Related imageMeanwhile, back in the catastrophe that is retail,
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Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    Good morning! 

    Big wheee on oil, thank goodness – Hawaii is back on!  

    After reading all that stuff yesterday I left all 20 short (now 10) and I was having flashbacks to my worse loss ever when I had oil shorts and went on a plane to Texas and, by the time I landed, I had lost $50,000!  Fortunately, this one worked out better but I was not happy seeing $53 holding last night!  

    Gasoline back to the $1.60 line.

    Don't blame the Dollar – still weak.

    EuroStoxx doing well but we're not following – yet.







 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Iran Commemorates "Captured US Sailors"-Day With Massive Billboard

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just over a year since Iran captured 10 US sailors - and detained them for around 15 hours - for entering Iranian waters "illegally," it appears America's nuclear-deal-partner wants to make sure its citizenry do not forget...

Huge billboard in Tehran commemorates the capture of the US sailors...

h/t @potkazar...



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ValueWalk

The Story of the U.S. Regime Change Plan in the Philippines

By Dan Steinbock. Originally published at ValueWalk.

By Dan Steinbock
As long-needed economic reforms are taking off in the Philippines, regime change plans have been prepared in the US State Department against a democratically-elected president who enjoys very high popular support.
During the Philippine presidential campaigns in spring 2016, U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg sided visibly with anti-Duterte forces, which led to several high-profile confrontations. After the controversial Ambassador left the Philippines, he wrote a “blueprint to undermine Duterte within 18 months.” Last month, the plan was leaked to The Manila Times, the oldest English-language daily in the Philippines.

Photo by Davao Today ...

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Phil's Favorites

Ridiculous Central Bank Non-Revelation: BOE Says Rates Can Move "Either Direction"

Courtesy of Mish

On the “duh” side of non-revelations, Bank of England says Rates Could Rise or Fall.

That actually made headline news on the BBC. There was one curious detail.

The next move in UK interest rates could be up or down, Bank of England governor Mark Carney has again warned.

At present, UK households appeared to be “entirely looking through Brexit-related uncertainties”, he said in a speech at the London School of Economics.

However, the country was “entering a period of somewhat higher consumer price inflation”, he added.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Up on Saudi Commitment to Cut; U.S. Output Seen Rising (Reuters)

Oil prices settled up on Monday, as Saudi Arabia's commitments to reducing production offset a report forecasting U.S. output would again rise this year.

Italy will be the next big problem in Europe (Business Insider)

As a new year begins, we look at a key forecast that will bridge 2016 and 2017: the Italian banking crisis. In Geopolitical Futures’ 2016 forecast, we said ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Regional banks; Breakout test in play, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Over the past 60-days, financial stocks have done well. Over the past 60-days, regional banks have been stellar performers, out producing larger banks and the broad market, by a large percentage. From a risk on stock perspective, seeing large and regional banks do well, has historically been a positive sign.

Below looks at regional bank ETF (KRE)_

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

K...



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Members' Corner

How To Poop On A Date?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Back for a brief respite, it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday in the Loo". Our last episode The Best Thing To Happen To Pooping, Since Your Butt, laid down a historical perspective.  

This week in How To Poop on a Date? we are graced with a delicate shituation: when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".  Oh what to do...


...

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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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