Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar 06-29-16

This week's Webinar is ready. Watch below. 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar 06-29-16

Major Topics:
 
00:01:32 Checking on the Markets:  DX, CL, RB, NKD
00:05:10 Chaos created by Brexit
00:09:05 China’s massive debt flowing economy
00:09:58 Japan’s GDP debt
00:10:54 US numbers
00:12:46 Lines: Pivot point
00:16:05 “I want people to be a wolf”
00:18:11 George Soros about Brexit
00:26:47 Brexit vote map
00:35:32 DX over NKD. Support resistance line
00:39:48 Neil Farage EU parliament
00:40:42 EU politicians nobody has a real clue about 80%
00:51:50 Total Broadway ticket sales
01:01:13 Wealth extraction
01:11:30 YG and SI Inflation
01:13:21 Top Trade: BX
01:22:06 WFC
01:23:30 Long Term Portfolio
01:26:36 BX Trade Idea
01:34:46 Weekly Chart SPX
01:38:46 5% Portfolio: TLT
01:40:04 Butterfly Portfolio
01:42:42 VIX
01:44:34 TLT puts
01:47:47 Checking on the Markets, Trade Ideas

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here

For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Pares Biggest Quarterly Gain Since 2009 Amid Rebalancing (Bloomberg)

Oil headed for the biggest quarterly advance in seven years as falling U.S. supply added to speculation the global surplus is easing.

Stocks Steady, Capping Rocky First Half of Year (Wall Street Journal)

Stock markets mostly stabilized Thursday, on track for a subdued end to a tempestuous first half of the year.

China gasoil demand hits near 6-year lows, gasoline reverses trend (Platts)

Apparent demand for oil in China, Asia's biggest oil consumer, headed lower in May as subdued economic activity pulled down gasoil consumption to its lowest level in nearly six years, while gasoline witnessed its first year-on-year decline in consumption since January 2014.

World stocks poised for worst month since January (Reuters)

European stocks and the pound held on to a third day of gains as the immediate market flurry over Britain’s vote to pull out of the European Union settled.

Gold futures dip as dollar gains amid return to ‘riskier’ assets (Market Watch)

Gold futures prices fell and the U.S. dollar mostly gained on Thursday as global markets further stabilized from the volatile trading that followed the U.K. split with the European Union.

Here is proof that economic wealth does not guarantee the best quality of life (Business Insider)

A country having vast economic wealth does not necessarily guarantee a greater quality of life for its citizens, according to data from the latest Social Progress Index (SPI).

Elderly woman walks by an electronic stock board of a securities firm in TokyoJapan running low on workers as proportion of over-65s hits record levels (The Guardian)

Japan’s closed-door immigration policy is expected to come under scrutiny after census data showed that more than a quarter of its population is over 64, while the number of children aged under 14 is at a record low – trends that have caused alarm over the country’s economic fortunes.

71% of Americans Think the U.S. Economy Is Rigged (Fortune)

Unemployment in America


continue reading





Fake, Flat, Final Thursday of Q2

Oh please!  

Do I really have to pretend it's some kind of coincidence that we have raced back to close the quarter just above where we started it in order not to be perceived as a conspiracy theorist?  It's not a theory when it happens all the time, is it?

And look at the volume, we gained 70 S&P points in two days on less than half the volume we had when we fell.  How does the market go up that much with so much less money coming in?  As I noted yesterday, it's a house of cards that can be easily toppled once today's window-dressing event is over.  Also, bulls should be very concerned that 2,076.50 is the 50-day moving average on the S&P and, if we can't get over that today – it's a technical failure anyway.  

This is not, by the way, sour grapes.  Though we believe the market is heading lower (still looking for 1,850 on the S&P over the summer), we are very much in neutral with our paired long and short-term portfolios.  On Tuesday we noted that our STP was up to $536,627 and our LTP was at $959,373 as of Mondays close at the lows (see post for strategy details).  70 S&P points later, our LTP has jumped to $1,004,321 and the STP as fallen to $510,062 and that's a combined $1,514,383 (up 152%) and that's UP $18,383 in two days (1.2%). 

So we made more money on the way down and we made more money on the way up.  Is it alchemy?  No, it's BALANCE!  We balance our portfolios into uncertain events and, although we have an overall neutral stance, because we are "Being the House - NOT the Gambler", we are still collecting those premiums – no matter which way the market goes.  I don't think you can have a better stress test of our system than we've had in the past few days!  

Learning how to Be the House and how to balance our portfolios allows us to make money in any kind of market conditions and, more importantly, it allows us to TAKE A VACATION.  I went to Florida last Thursday and came back on Tuesday


continue reading





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Erases Brexit Selloff as U.S. Crude Supplies, Dollar Decline (Bloomberg)

Oil erased the two-day plunge that followed Britain’s vote to leave the European Union after U.S. crude inventories dropped for a sixth week while the dollar retreated against its peers.

Most banks get Fed clearance to lift dividends and increase stock buybacks (Market Watch)

The Federal Reserve gave the go-ahead to most banks to lift dividends and increase stock buybacks, a sign of the growing recognition the regulator has afforded the capital raised by the financial sector.

China just hinted it could increase fintech regulation (Business Insider)

Fintech companies in China could soon face some more hurdles.

China Investors Turn to Sovereign Debt Amid Company Defaults (Bloomberg)

There’s about to be a flight to quality in China’s bond market.

Fidelity Just Made Buying an Index Fund Vanguard-Cheap (Wall Street Journal)

Money manager Fidelity Investments plans to slash prices on more than two dozen funds that track stock and bond indexes, a big concession to an industry shift toward cheap products.

Kroger joins Walmart, Home Depot in Visa lawsuits (Business Insider)

Visa has been sued. Again.

Japan Exchange’s Stock Falls 40% for Worst Performer (Bloomberg)

Japan Exchange Group Inc., operator of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, is having a year to forget, with its stock falling about 40 percent and trailing the almost 7 percent gain of the BI Global Security & Commodity Exchanges Valuation Peer Group.

Wall Street is buying itself (Business Insider)

That is, it is buying itself.

The Dodd-Frank stress tests, which measure whether financial institutions with more than $50 billion in US-based assets could survive a severe recession without infecting the rest of the economy, mandate that if a bank fails the firm is not allowed to return cash to


continue reading





Comment by phil

View Single Comment

  1. phil

    Volume back to lame, too (97M).  







Comment by albo

View Single Comment

  1. albo

    Phil – Thanks !







Comment by lionel

View Single Comment

  1. lionel

    bought RB on the dip







News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Stocks are climbing again (Business Insider)

Futures are higher for a second straight day since the sell-off after the UK referendum last week. The pound is also higher. 

5 Things to Watch in the Fed’s Stress Test Results (Wall Street Journal)

Wednesday may be the most important day of the year for large U.S. banks, with the Federal Reserve set to release its verdicts on whether they have passed or failed annual stress tests. The 33 large U.S. banks taking the test this year passed the warm-up round last week, but on Wednesday billions of dollars in investor payouts are on the line.

The Fed Is in an Epic Battle With Itself (Bloomberg View)

Two Federal Reserve announcements less than a week apart, in contrast to the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision earlier this month, are likely to show that the agency's own goals are in conflict.

A man is reflected in a stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, June 27, 2016.  REUTERS/Toru HanaiGlobal stocks gain as Brexit nerves settle (Reuters)

European and Asian stock markets built on a recovery from the shattering aftermath of last week's Brexit vote on Wednesday as investors wagered central banks would ultimately ride to the rescue with more stimulus.

Will Brexit Actually Happen? (Bloomberg View)

The Financial Times's Gideon Rachman says he thinks Brexit won't happen. The referendum result doesn't mean that much, he argues.

Division, confusion as EU rethinks future without Britain (AP)

EU leaders are meeting Wednesday without Britain for the first time to rethink their union and keep it from disintegrating after Britain's unprecedented vote to leave — but conflicting visions of Europe's future are complicating the high-stakes summit.

European Banks Spend Billions to Get U.S. Units Fit for Fed (Bloomberg)

Deutsche Bank AG, Barclays Plc and 11 other foreign banks have spent several billion dollars in the past three years complying with a new Federal Reserve rule that will trap capital in


continue reading





Don’t believe the Brexit prophecies of economic doom

 

Don’t believe the Brexit prophecies of economic doom

Courtesy of Isaac Tabner, University of Stirling

The shock and horror at the Brexit vote has been loud and vociferous. Some seem to be revelling in the uncertainty that the referendum result has provoked. The pound falling in value, a downturn in markets – it lends credence to the establishment’s claims before the referendum that a Leave vote would lead to economic Armageddon.

But there are plenty of reasons to reject the consensus that Brexit will be costly to the UK’s economy. Even though markets appear stormy in the immediate aftermath of the vote, the financial market reaction to date has more characteristics of a seasonal storm than of a major catastrophe.

We were told that the consensus of economic experts were overwhelmingly opposed to a Brexit. Lauded institutions – from the IMF, OECD to the Treasury and London School of Economics – produced damning forecasts that ranged from economic hardship to total disaster if the UK leaves the EU. Yet 52% percent of the British electorate clearly rejected their warnings.

Something that my professional experience has taught me is that when an “accepted consensus” is presented as overwhelming, it is a good time to consider the opposite. Prime examples of this are the millennium bug, the internet stock frenzy, the housing bubble, Britain exiting the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) and Britain not joining the euro. In each of these examples, the overwhelming establishment consensus of the time turned out to be wrong. I believe Brexit is a similar situation.

Downright dangerous

The economic models used to predict the harsh consequences of a Brexit are the tools of my profession’s trade. Used properly, they help us to better understand how systems work. In the wrong hands they are also downright dangerous. The collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and the mispricing of mortgage backed securities leading up to the 2008 financial crisis are just two of many examples of harmful consequences arising from the abuse of such models.

The output of these often highly sophisticated models depends entirely upon the competence and integrity of the user. With miniscule adjustment, they can be tweaked to support or contradict more or less any argument…
continue reading





Morning Reads: Istanbul Airport Terror Attack; “Final” Benghazi Report Released

Political News Today via BillMoyers.com

Morning Reads: Istanbul Airport Terror Attack; “Final” Benghazi Report Released

(This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com)

Attack in Istanbul --> The BBC: "A gun and bomb attack on Istanbul's Ataturk airport has killed 41 people, at least 13 of them foreigners, and injured more than 230, officials say. Three attackers arrived in a taxi and began firing at the terminal entrance late on Tuesday. They blew themselves up after police fired back."

Turkish officials were quick to say that ISIS appears to be behind the attack. Reuters: "Two U.S. counterterrorism officials familiar with the early stages of investigations said Islamic State was at the top of the list of suspects even though there was no evidence yet."

Benghazi… again --> After years of investigating Hillary Clinton for personal wrongdoing related to the 2012 attack on the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya, Republicans on the House Select Committee on Benghazi issued their allegedly final report yesterday, "finding no new evidence of culpability or wrongdoing by Hillary Clinton…"

This follows a report by Democrats on Monday tallied up Republicans' spending on the partisan investigation and came up with a price tag to taxpayers of $7 million.

But: That doesn't mean the investigation didn't succeed in saddling Clinton with baggage. Donovan Slack for USA Today: "The National Rifle Association’s political arm is launching its first ad campaign of the 2016 presidential race, with a survivor of the terror attack in Benghazi urging viewers to vote for Donald Trump. The ad, which the NRA Political Victory Fund is backing with more than $2 million, is the group’s first campaign in the presidential race and one of the larger expenditures by an outside group on behalf of the presumptive Republican nominee."

And: The Hillary Clinton email story, which just won't die, also emerged out of the Benghazi investigations.

Soliciting foreign money --> Adam Weinstein for Fusion: "In recent days, as the U.K. pondered its future in the European Union and presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump waded in with a press conference on his Scottish golf course, the Scottish National Party’s 54 members of the British Parliament received multiple emails from…
continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

The New Narrative For Earnings: Blame Brexit

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Every quarter there is always a fallback narrative put forth as to why companies fail to meet earnings expectations, and we now have that narrative for the rest of 2016 (and perhaps through 2025): Brexit.

As we discussed yesterday, as we enter into Q2 earnings season the main focus on all earnings calls will be to what extent Brexit w...



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

John DeVoy, Former Baupost Director Hired By Loomis Sayles

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

John DeVoy, a long time analyst at Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group has left the hedge fund for a position at Loomis Sayles. Devoy formerly worked at Loomis before spending close to ten years at the Boston based hedge fund. The news was announced via a press release from Loomis.  The statement says that DeVoy will be returning to the company “as a dedicated credit strategist for the flagship full discretion team.”

Also see Will Baupost Follow Its Own “North Star”

Baupost Group’s Seth Klarman Sees ’50 Shades of Value’

Devoy was a managing dir...



more from ValueWalk

Phil's Favorites

Obamacare 12.7 Million Enrolled, 11.1 Million Paid Premiums; Poll: Is This a Success?

Courtesy of Mish.

Far more people like Obamacare than are willing to pay for it.

In January, 12.7 million people enrolled, but 1.6 million of them never paid any premiums.

Their policies were cancelled.

The Hill reports ObamaCare Enrollment Drops to 11.1M.

ObamaCare enrollment dropped to about 11.1 million people at the end of March, according to new figures released by the administration. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) said enrollment fell to about 11.1 million, down from the 12.7 million who signed up for coverage before the Jan. 31 deadline.

A dropoff was expected, and has occurred in previous years as well, given ...



more from Ilene

Chart School

Moving Averages: June Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Valid until the market close on July 29, 2016

The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly gain of 0.09% which follows a gain of 1.53% last month. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "invested" and all five Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling "invested". In the table, monthly closes that are within 2% of a signal are highlighted in yellow.

The Ivy Portfolio

The above table shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. We've also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative stra...



more from Chart School

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Pares Biggest Quarterly Gain Since 2009 Amid Rebalancing (Bloomberg)

Oil headed for the biggest quarterly advance in seven years as falling U.S. supply added to speculation the global surplus is easing.

Stocks Steady, Capping Rocky First Half of Year (Wall Street Journal)

Stock markets mostly stabilized Thursday, on track for a subdued end to a tempestuous first half of the year.

...



more from Paul

Kimble Charting Solutions

Follow this leading indicator closely, resistance test in play

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below compares the prices of Crude Oil and the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYSE) over the past couple of years.

Once Crude peaked in 2014, the NYSE Index make little upward movement after than, even though the trend for the prior few years was clearly up.

Over the past year (black rectangle box), the correlation has been quite high.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Are Crude Oil and the NYSE, both creating an inve...



more from Kimble C.S.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 27th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



more from M.T.M.

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



more from Bitcoin

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



more from Biotech

Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>