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Comment by batman

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  1. batman

    Phil/ TASR – Looking at getting back into this one. Have the jan '17 put @$4.3

    Want to get into the 25/35 '17 BCS at net $6.5 – would you go with this, or something else?

    thanks







GDPhursday – Nothing to Get Excited About

We're waiting for the Q2 GDP report.

I certainly don't remember any economic reports in April, May or June that make me think it's a huge winner but Q1 was -0.2% and the S&P has climbed from 2,060 on April 1st to 2,125 (3.1%) on June 23rd – completely ignoring the bad data right up until the last week, when it then dropped all the way to 2,057 on June 29th, wiping out the whole quarter of progress in just a single week.

We nailed the top with a series of posts attempting to warn people to get out, starting that Thursday (6/18), in the article titled "Thursday Thrurst, Dollar Sacrificed to Save the Markets (again)" where I said: "Now the Dollar is at 94, which is 6% lower and the S&P has managed to claw back to 2,100, which is 2.4% higher.  When you consider the fact that the S&P 500's value is calculated from a formula that is based in Dollars, we've actually lose 3.6% in real value since the April lows but shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh – don't tell that to the bulls!

We called for shorting the Futures at S&P 2,100, Russell 1,270, Oil $60.95 and Gold at $1,205 and, even more brilliantly, we called the short on China's ultra-long ETF (CHAU) and picked up the Nov $65/53 bear put spread for net $8 and that's miles in the money now, looking for our full $12 return and a 50% gain.  

I'm not supposed to refer back to posts on PSW or Seeking Alpha won't run them but they didn't run my post of June 18th because it, in turn, referred back to other posts and the funniest thing was that our post of June 20th, which was a Seeking Aplha Trade Review, was also rejected by Seeking Alpha – AND WE WROTE IT JUST FOR THEM!  You see, it sets a very bad precedent when some authors are willing to be held accountable for their picks and 99.9% are not.

On June 19th it was: "Five Time Friday: Here Come Those Tears Again" where I said "It must be the third week of the month because that's the week the S&P gets to 2,120. It has happened every month since February and the
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Comment by News:

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  1. News:

    House price-to-rent ratios in major US markets: a data visualization case study

    House price-to-rent ratios in major US markets: a data visualization case study


    joeleider.com

    My wife and I are buying (and selling) a house, and the metric I always return to is price-to-rent ratio. Sure, the real estate agent will show you comp…







News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

bullfight death The bull market is coming to an end (Business Insider)

No one knows to what still crazier level this stock market is headed, or what kind of decline – if any ever, the bulls say – it will experience. But we all have our signs and signals that we keep our eyes on, hoping to get the drift in time.

No one wants to go through another crash like the last three (1987, 2000, and 2008 which all occurred during my investing years) with any significant amount money tied up in stocks (not to speak of bonds).

Post-Coup Thailand Sees Economic Slump Putting Pressure on Junta (Bloomberg)

Thailand’s government is under increasing pressure to overhaul the cabinet and bolster the economy as falling exports, eroding consumer confidence and a slump in manufacturing portend one of the region’s slowest expansions.

Jack Lew warns Congress over debt ceiling (CNN)

Congress has been fighting over the Iran trade deal, a highway bill and Puerto Rico's debt crisis.

On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew sent legislative leaders a little reminder about another contentious item: the debt ceiling.

Saudi Arabia to trim oil production after summer (Market Watch)

The world's top crude-oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is planning to pull back from record-high levels of production at the end of the summer when domestic energy demand subsides, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The reduction could begin as soon as September and would amount to about 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day, bringing production to about 10.3 million barrels a day, the people said. Saudi Arabia told the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that it produced 10.56 million barrels a day in June, a record high.

<> on November 7, 2013 in London, England.The 1 Most Interesting Thing We Just Learned About Twitter (Time)

Twitter on Tuesday posted second quarter earnings of $0.07 per share, beating expectations of $0.04 per share. That


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Peter Van Buren, Washington and Tehran Come in From the Cold

 

Tomgram: Peter Van Buren, Washington and Tehran Come in From the Cold

Intro by Tom at TomDispatch

Every election needs an organizing catchphrase and that goes doubly for the Republican presidential race, with 16 candidates having entered the fray and more on the way. I think I have the perfect one for the moment: “You’ve been Trumped!” After all, one striking thing about the Republicans, now that they’ve morphed into the party of war, is that any new candidate is obligated to out-militarize his opponents, no matter what they've claimed they’d do. This has given the old World War I trench-warfare phrase going “over the top” (that is, over the parapet to attack) new meaning.

Take for example Donald Trump. On entering the race, he promptly Trumped his competitors by claiming that he was nothing short of a military genius and swearing that, for our present war in the Middle East, he would instantly find a “General Patton” or a “General MacArthur,” that is, a leader capable of finally putting our military in the win column. But for him generals were a secondary concern because Commander-in-Chief Trump has his own unstoppable plan for destroying the Islamic State. Here’s how he put it: “Take back the oil. Once you go over and take back that oil, they have nothing. You bomb the hell out of them, and then you encircle it, and then you go in. And you let Mobil go in, and you let our great oil companies go in. Once you take that oil, they have nothing left." Encircle it, yes!

And the ante’s only going up. By now, saying that, on your first day in the Oval Office, you’ll tear up the Iran nuclear accord (should it pass Congressional scrutiny in the first place) is chump (or possibly Trump) change — and so is the idea that American ground troops must be sent into Iraq War 3.0. Candidate Rick Santorum made headlines by calling for 10,000 of them to be dispatched to Iraq and was promptly Trumped by Senator Lindsey Graham, who saw his…
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Mark Ames Interviews Yves Smith about Greece

This article will only be available to non-Pando subscribers for 48 hours.

Mark Ames of Pando Interviews Your Humble Blogger on Greece

I hope you’ll enjoy this interview with Mark Ames: Naked Capitalism: “We are in the business of making trouble.”

It’s unlocked only for the next 48 hours, so please check it out soon!

Also, there’s one small correction that didn’t get into the version that Mark put up. Hopefully it will be revised soon, but in case you see the article before Mark makes the update, I make a statement about “negative interest rates” that should read “negative real interest rates”.

****

Excerpt:

This year’s political drama in Greece stands out as perhaps the least-understood, worst-reported major story of 2015.

Greece is mired in debt, and locked into the Euro monetary system, which means Greece’s political destiny is in the hands of the European Central Bank, the IMF and the powerful nations that dominate the Eurozone, Germany and France —and not in the hands of Greece’s “demos,” its voting public.

The implications of Greece’s political-financial struggles are huge—we could be seeing the beginning of the end of not only the Euro monetary union, but also the half-baked EU political union as well. We could also see a more globalized unraveling, but thanks to the financial world’s intentionally shady machinations, we won’t know until we know. Greece is also a major ideological battleground between a re-emerging and more radicalized western Left—Syriza—and entrenched neoliberalism, which has dominated the political ecosystem for the past few decades. The outcome could affect the fate of a lot of fledgling neo-leftist politics across the globe, and in the West in particular.

Finance stories are always complicated and by design murky—add in the layers of EU politics, and you have a story that can only be told by someone with deep finance knowledge, a grasp of the larger political and cultural inputs, and the rare ability to translate it all into vivid, sharp-tongued, and aggressively readable prose.

Which is why you should be following Yves Smith great


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The World Gets Serious About Climate Change

Courtesy of 

Jeremy Grantham’s latest note for GMO tackles some of his pet issues – from commodity demand to climate change – and the conclusions he reaches are both dour and slightly hopeful at the same time. For the uninitiated, Grantham is the real deal on these topics, having gotten himself arrested at a Keystone XL pipeline protest a couple of years back.

The bad news is that we’re breaking records for climate-related abnormalities around the world. The good news, he notes, is that there has been a real evolution in terms of the way world leaders are looking at the issue…

Both the actual climate and the associated politics seem to be changing more rapidly these days, with the seriousness of the situation becoming better appreciated. Visible changes in the climate have also been accelerating, with many more records than normal of droughts, floods, and, most particularly, heat. Last year was the hottest year ever recorded, and this year, helped by an El Niño, has gotten off to a dreadful start. January was the second hottest January ever. February and March were outright records. April was in third place, but both May and June were back in first place. This consistency with volatile climate is unusual and ominous. If kept up, 2015 will be the hottest by a lot. Angela Merkel, a chemist by University training, arm-twisted the G7 countries, especially Japan and the recently rogue Canada, into a statement committing their countries to decarbonizing their economies completely by 2100 and making some increased effort by 2050, a respectable improvement but still very insufficient for the long term. It was probably the first time for several decades, by the way, that it was reasonably clear that someone other than a U.S. President was the natural leader: at least on some issues.

Pope Francis weighed in with a brave encyclical, which was bound to cause trouble with his flock, making the clear case that it is a Catholic’s duty to help protect our home planet and that manmade climate change from excessive burning of CO2-producing fossil fuels is an urgent problem. He was advised


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Your Rent's About to Get Even Higher (Bloomberg)

If the monthly rent check is already painful to write, brace yourself.

The Census Bureau's U.S. rental vacancy rate, which tracks the share of properties that are unoccupied, fell to 6.8 percent in the second quarter. That's the lowest level using comparable data since 1985.

chimney collapse crumble demolish crashEverything's starting to crash (Business Insider)

In a recent update I gave six signs of an impending crash. Just today we have a number of those signs starting to hit.

Despite a $486 billion fund to prop up its market, China’s stocks sunk another 8.5% on Monday – the biggest one-day drop since 2007.

This is following a 35% crash into early July. Now, after bouncing back up to 4,200, the Shanghai Composite is down to 3,750. If it falls another 10% to below its recent low of 3,374, that will be the decisive blow – for us and them.

Treasury market might look past Fed meeting to GDP (Market Watch)

Treasury investors aren’t sweating Janet Yellen’s Fed meeting. As the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy huddle is set to conclude Wednesday with a statement but no news conference, few traders are expecting big market-moving surprises on interest rates.

Investors are pricing in a zero probability of a rate hike in July, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool that tracks Fed funds futures prices, and Treasury bets are split between a September and December hike.

Emaar IPO Flop Raises Red Flag for Egypts Bet on Property Boom (Bloomberg)

The Emaar Properties banners adorning the facade of the Cairo Stock Exchange radiated confidence as shares started trading in Egypt’s biggest initial public offering since the 2011 Arab Spring. Three weeks and a 7.4 percent decline later, investors are lining up to get out.

Wall St. Money Meets Social Policy at Rikers Island (NY Times)

First, the control group fell apart. Wardens at Rikers


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Comment by phil

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  1. phil

    I'm sorry but TWTR drop is just stupid.  Great time to take advantage of short-term market thinking.

    I see an Ask of $9 for the TWTR 2017 $33 puts but let's ask $8 for 10 more (selling) as that's more realistic in the LTP. 

    In the STP, we have 15 of the Jan $35 calls, now $2.95 and let's roll those to down to the Jan $30 calls at $5.40 for $2.45.  2017 hasn't come down enough for me to want to roll there.  The other legs we'll leave alone.







Wednesday – Shanghai Surprise (Manipulation) Ahead of the Fed

Should we laugh or cry?

After dropping 100 points (2.7%) after lunch, the Shanghai Composite jammed up 175 points (5%) into the close and, combined with the pre-market pump that gave them a good open, resulted in a 3.4% gain on the day that NO ONE in the MSM seems to think is in the least bit strange.  

Yesterday I said: "Everything you used to laugh about regarding Russia's Pravda and Izvestia is EXACTLY what is now happening to the US media except, rather than government control – it's controlled by corporations, who determine what information YOU will be given each day." and Hanno on Seeking Alpha asked me what I meant by "YOU" and I said I mean non-PSW Members (the target audience for the morning post, the rest of our day is private) because "WE" at PSW learn to be very critical of the Mainstream Corporate Media.  As one of our Members said recently:

Subscribing to Phil’s site is like the Matrix – taking the red pill:

"You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes."

You start to become educated at a different level – and the main stream media has diverged to such a degree that a normal conversation with friends that only casually follow the market is no longer possible. They’re still taking the blue pill – the banks, the fed, the govt. – all have put them to sleep.

It's a very appropriate conversation for what is to be a blue pill day, when the Fed is scheduled to release their statement (2pm) in which they will change a dozen words from the last statement and the Media will act like another tablet has been delivered from Mount Siniai when really (as is very apparent in the minutes) it's just a
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ValueWalk

The FBI Built A Database That Can Catch Rapists 2014 Almost Nobody Uses It

By Pro Publica. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The FBI Built a Database That Can Catch Rapists 2014 Almost Nobody Uses It

by T. Christian Miller ProPublica, July 30, 2015, 6 a.m.

This story was co-published with The Atlantic.

QUANTICO, Va. 2014 More than 30 years ago, the Federal Bureau of Investigation launched a revolutionary computer system in a bomb shelter two floors beneath the cafeteria of its national academy. Dubbed the Violent Criminal Apprehension Program, or ViCAP, it was a database designed to help catch the nation's most violent offenders by linking together unsolved crimes. A serial rapist wielding a favorite knife in one attack might be identified when he used the same knife elsewhere. The system was rooted in the belief that some criminals' me...



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Zero Hedge

Least Transparent Ever: IRS Used "Wholly Separate" Message System To Hide Communications

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Barack Obama promised to have the “most transparent administration ever,” but as with pretty much every other promise he’s made over the years, the exact opposite is what has occurred.

From Hillary Clinton using her own private email server while Secretary of State, to the latest revelations that the IRS (which ...



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Phil's Favorites

Which Will It Be: United States of Europe OR United States of Germany?

Courtesy of Mish.

Socialists Seek to Outvote Germany

In the wake of the near-Grexit, France and Italy seek more powers for the European Commission (EC).

And both countries want another parliament with more power. Their unstated goal is to create a United States of Europe where socialists would outvote the Germans.

Germany Seeks to Prevent Being Outvoted

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has a completely different idea: Schäuble Outlines Plan to Limit European Commission Powers.
German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is proposing to strip the European Commission of some of its core oversight powers in an effort to avoid politicising EU decision-making at a time when the executive body h...



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Chart School

Markets Remain Near and Above, Yesterday's Highs

Courtesy of Declan.

Tech indices finished strong after they overcame the opening half hour of selling. The Fed statement was greeted favorably, although market breadth is not looking pretty. The Nasdaq still has a distance to travel to make back all of its losses, but has done well to hold up against Semiconductor weakness.


The Semiconductor Index is struggling to make inroads against past losses as the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 push respectable gains. I find it hard to see how this scenario can continue, ...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The bull market is coming to an end (Business Insider)

No one knows to what still crazier level this stock market is headed, or what kind of decline – if any ever, the bulls say – it will experience. But we all have our signs and signals that we keep our eyes on, hoping to get the drift in time.

No one wants to go through another crash like the last three (1987, 2000, and 2008 which all occurred during my investing years) with any significant amount money tied up in stocks (not to speak of bonds).

Post-Coup Thailand Sees Economic Slump Putting Press...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Travel indicator being put to critical tests

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The American Economy is driven a good deal by the consumer.

The table below reflects that nearly 70% of GDP is based consumption.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The 4-pack below looks at consumption with a focus on the travel and leisure sector, by looking at Avis (CAR), Hertz (HTZ), Expedia (EXPE) and Priceline (PCLN).

CLICK ON CHART ABOVE TO ENLARGE

While many seem to be occupied by the news abou...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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