Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

$1,000 Friday – Yesterday’s Oil Trade Gives Everyone a Great Weekend!

Congratulations!  

If you read yesterday's post and took action on our trade idea to short Oil Futures (/CL) at the $103 line, then you were able to pocket $1,000 PER CONTRACT in just 3 hours.  In the Morning post (delivered to our Members via Email at 8:35 am), the trade idea was:

"We're still shorting Oil (/CL) Futures at that $103 line and we hit it again this morning and, hopefully, we'll get a nice pullback around 10:30 – after the natural gas report shows a nice build."

That's about on par for our Futures trading as we demonstrated LIVE in Tuesday's Live Trading Webinar $300 of Futures profits in less than an hour (replay available here).  We'll be doing more Futures Webinars for our Members aside from our usual Tuesday Live Trading Webcasts (sign up for your Membership here so you don't miss our trade ideas).  

How to trade the Futures is one of the many things we learn at Philstockworld – another thing is PATIENCE!  Patience has kept us from chasing this rally as we once again top out the market.  On Tuesday we took a nice, speculative bullish trade (but did not officially add it to our Portfolios) - just in case we do have a breakout – but, otherwise, we've been working on our downside protection. 

We are FUNDAMENTAL traders who just so happen to use Options and Futures for leverage and hedging – simply because they are convenient and profitable instruments when used correctly.  What we teach is not all that complicated – but it isn't easy either.  That's why not many people trade Options and Futures – it requires discipline and takes time and practice to master – not really the kind of thing our education system prepares our students for these days….

YOU, however, should not be intimidated away from making money.  Our basic concepts are VERY SIMPLE and the concepts are explained in quick videos like "How To Buy a Stock for a 15-20% Discount" and "The Secret to Consistent 20-40% Annual Returns" – something we are demonstrating this year in the 5 Virtual Portfolios we track for our Members.  

Back on December 7th, for…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Comment by doro165

View Single Comment

  1. doro165

    Phil, working on adjusting my CZR bfly, with the big jump today would you still sell the Sept 16's ($2) or sell the $17.50($1.05)?







Comment by DMulligan

View Single Comment

  1. DMulligan

    HOV getting near Buy Buy Buy time?? 







The current ECB programs create a QE-like environment, setting up for moral hazards

The current ECB programs create a QE-like environment, setting up for moral hazards

Courtesy of SoberLook.com

In spite of weakening economic growth, persistent credit contraction, and dangerously low inflation rate in a number of member states (chart below), the ECB continues to resist calls for Fed-style outright securities purchases. Instead the central bank is betting on the recently announced TLTRO program (see post).
 

Source: Investing.com

 

The key reason for avoiding outright quantitative easing is, supposedly, the ECB's fear of creating a moral hazard. With a ready buyer of government debt and low market rates, some member states would no longer focus on cutting deficits.

Natixis: – The ECB’s problem is that it does not want to create incentives for governments to refrain from correcting fiscal deficits or avoid improving their public finance situation. What is rejected by the ECB is the moral hazard that would result from the central bank buying government bonds.

Fair enough. But a recent report from Natixis argues that the combination of the TLTRO lending and the OMT backstop program creates conditions that are nearly identical to quantitative easing.

Any QE program aims to increase the monetary base (by raising banks' excess reserves) and to push down longer term interest rates via securities purchases. As an extreme example of this, consider Japan's massive QE effort (see post). Both objectives have been met: long-term rates are at ridiculously low levels (0.53% on 10-year JGBs) while the monetary base is at a record.
 

Source: Investing.com, BOJ


Similarly (though not to the same extent) the ECB's programs will mimic QE without actually buying any government securities. Here is how:

1. Long term rates across the Eurozone are already at incredibly low levels. The ECB's forward guidance, weak growth, and recent geopolitical risks have pushed German rates to new lows (see chart). On the other hand the OMT program, often called the "Draghi put", has suppressed periphery yields. Furthermore, with short-term rates near zero and low capital requirements to hold sovereign bonds, the euro…
continue reading





How The US Government Deliberately and Systematically Understates Inflation

How The US Government Deliberately and Systematically Understates Inflation

Courtesy of  

The US Government has been deliberately and systematically understating inflation since 1983. This video shows how the BLS does it.

This is a segment from the June 27 Radio Free Wall Street video for subscribers. The remainder of the program discusses why July could be rocky for stocks, and why real time data Federal tax revenues suggest that the financial engineering bubble should be near its peak. Subscribe to all of these cutting edge commentaries.





Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

www.interactivebrokers.com

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.


Tags:




Comment by DMulligan

View Single Comment

  1. DMulligan

    HOV getting near Buy Buy Buy time?? 







What Will Fed Do When The Overheated Sectors Carrying US Economy Start Cooling?

What Will Fed Do When The Overheated Sectors Carrying US Economy Start Cooling?

Courtesy of  

While some sectors of the US economy remain buried at or near depression levels and others are just so so, others are red hot. They are at record levels reaching or exceeding the levels hit at the tops of the housing bubble in 2006, and at the top of the internet bubble. For data that shows that, we need look no further than today’s release of initial jobless claims. They hit another record low for the latest reported week of July.

If the hot sectors of the US economy are driving the tepid growth in the overall economic picture, what happens if those hot sectors that are carrying the economy are stretched to their natural limits? How long can they continue to run at overheated levels? In the past, overheated sectors, or overheated economies or markets, would persist at those levels for a year or so before succumbing to the forces of correction. Once the correction set in, the unwinding of the excesses would impact many other sectors of the markets and the economy. The popping of the housing bubble and its aftermath are fresh in our memory.  We know how badly things can go.

The difference between now and then is that then interest rates were still at historically normal levels and central bankers had not yet pulled out their magic tools, now colloquially know as Quantitative Easing or QE. It’s essentially money printing at a massive scale. Mainstream economists and journalists, who never saw the bubble in the first place, now claim that QE gets credit for reversing the economic collapse that followed the bubble. Of course we will never know if that’s true, or if the US economy would have rebounded on its own as it had done in every economic panic that preceded the creation of the Fed in 1913. Mainstream pundits seem to forget about that fact, instead prefering to give credit to the great and powerful Oz–Ben Bernanke.

So here we are in 2014 with asset bubbles in stocks and fixed income securities, housing bubbles in most of the developed world as well as many US locales, and evidence of economic overextension in some of


continue reading





Unintentional Tax Humor on the Inversion Scam at Forbes

Unintentional Tax Humor on the Inversion Scam at Forbes

Courtesy of 

While you’ve all been busy being distracted by the strife in Gaza and Ukraine, or perhaps more sensibly decided to tune out and enjoy the summer, various not so pretty developments have been moving forward with alacrity in the US. One is a spate of so-called “inversion” deals, in which corporations use acquisitions to move their headquarters overseas, which allows them to arrange their affairs so as to greatly lower their tax bills. The latest group of companies to try this ruse are in the health care industry, brandishing the excuse that if they fail to follow this dodgy practice, they won’t be competitive.

Kenneth Thomas has been on this beat at Angry Bear. Here’s a short overview of how inversion deals work earlier this week:

Corporate “inversions” are back in the news again, as multinational corporations try every “creative” way they can to get out of paying their fair share of taxes for being located in the United States. With inversions, the idea is to pretend to be a foreign company even though it is physically located and the majority of its shareholders are in the U.S.

“What’s that?” you say. At its base, what happens with an inversion is that a U.S. corporation claims that its head office is really in Ireland, the Cayman Islands, Jersey, etc. Originally, all you had to do was say that your headquarters was abroad. Literally.

Now, the rules require you to have at least 20% foreign ownership to make this claim, but companies as diverse as PfizerAbbVie, and Walgreen’s are set to run rings around this low hurdle. The basic idea is that you take over a smaller foreign company and pay for it partly with your own company’s stock to give the shareholders of the foreign takeover target at least a 20% ownership stake in your company.

Thus, with pharmaceutical company AbbVie’s takeover of the Irish company Shire (legally incorporated in the even worse tax haven Jersey), Shire’s shareholders will own about 25% of the new company, thereby qualifying to


continue reading





Comment by Phil

View Single Comment

  1. Phil

    Oil/Spank – It's a harsh mistress.  Funny (not to you though), that you felt that way exactly at the top of the move.  That's the hard part, learning to ride out those counter-moves and stick to your guns.  There's rarely ever a good down move that doesn't begin with a spike up to flush out the stops. 

    The trick is to learn to wait for those spikes up…

    Dow/Pharm – Only 12/30 are green, could be a lot worse.   Of course, if BA wasn't down $3, could be better too. 

    QCOM/StJ – Both good and now QCOM is a better deal.

    IRBT/StJ – Holding $35 but still down 8% on the day so that's a weak bounce off 10% drop.  $36.50 is strong bounce – that's the line I'll be most interested in. 

    VXX/Wombat – It's because VXX isn't a real thing.  Each month is nothing more than a parimutuel wager (like at the horse track) on the outcome of the monthly race that you are placing against other bettors after the market makers take their cut.  So, like the odds at a racetrack, your options can vary wildly in price solely dependent on the ebb and flow of other bets during your strike month.  Just like a racetrack too, you are unable to lock in your odds and you won't know what you get paid until the race is over (on expiration day) and you finally have a fixed, photo-finish.  

    AAL/Abhish – I'm with Buffett on that one:

    "How do you become a millionaire? Make a billion dollars and then buy an airline."

    Doors/Griffin – Disgusting trend that's going on in NYC.  

    Oil spreads – Too complicated for me.  I like the simple in and out directional plays as, 99% of the time, I don't have to waste my time paying attention to it.  

    MSFT/Albo – Nagarian thinks MSFT will gain $122Bn in market cap in 18 months or less?  Wow, that's adding more than all of HD or AXP or UPS or MCD or BA or UNP or MA or CVS or UNH or MO


continue reading





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Europe Unveils Preliminary Sanctions Against Russia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the preliminary terms of Europe's Russian sanctions were leaked yesterday, moments ago it was reported that EU ambassadors have reached an agreement on what the "hard-hitting" economic sanctions against Russia would look like even as details remain to still be ironed out ahead of a formal announcement of the final terms next week. According to Reuters, key measures suggested by the Commission include:

  • closing EU capi...


more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Obama Shenanigans on 'Factoryless' Exports, Taxes, Employment, Jobs

Courtesy of Mish.

Corporate Deserters

President Obama was beating the drums on Thursday in Los Angeles regarding corporate tax deserters, companies that move headquarters or tax shields to another country in order to escape high US tax rates.

The LA Times provides the details in President Obama Hits 'Corporate Deserters' in Populist L.A. Speech.
Tearing into companies he dubbed “corporate deserters,” President Obama on Thursday launched an election-year push to make it harder for U.S. companies to avoid paying taxes.

Under a bright sun at a trade and technical college in Los Angeles, Obama issued a damning assessment of a “small but growing” group of companies taking a...



more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

DigiTimes Reports Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Affiliate Receives Apple iWatch Orders

Courtesy of Benzinga.

An affiliated company of Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (NYSE: ASX), Universal Scientific Industrial, has reportedly received SiP module orders from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) for the iWatch according to industry sources, as reported by DigiTimes. Each SiP module costs approximately $60, which is 20% of the iWatch's rumored $300 price tag.

View full article http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20140723PD209.html

Posted-In: Digitimes...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Bulls Take Notice - Caution Suggested as Credit Markets and Equity Markets Diverge

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Summary
  • Divergence with small cap stocks and junk bonds persists.
  • Credit spreads widening suggests building short-term financial stress.
  • Markets oversold and how risk areas react will be telling.

One of the most widely followed market theories is Dow Theory, which has been around for more than 100 years. The essence of Dow Theory is to focus on confirmations or non-confirmations between the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average for assessing market trends and reversals. If one of the indexes breaks out to a new high while the other does not, we have a non-confirmation and the potential for a market reversal.

Similar to Dow Theory I like to look for confirmation between the stock market and the credit markets. When one market does not confirm the other, caution is ...



more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Option Review

Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.

...

more from Caitlin

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

more from SWW

Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



more from Paul

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



more from Pharmboy

Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



more from Promotions



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>