Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

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Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Set for Longest Run of Gains in 5 Years Before OPEC Meeting (Bloomberg)

Oil is set for the longest run of monthly gains in five years as output disruptions from Nigeria to Canada reduce supply before OPEC meets Thursday in Vienna to discuss production policy.

Every Stock Was a Buy to This Analyst Team, Then Shares Tanked (Bloomberg)

Companies probably love getting attention from analysts at Emperor Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. Investors who followed their advice for the past year, not so much.

A businessman is reflected in an electronic board displaying Japan's Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, April 18, 2016.  REUTERS/Toru HanaiAsian shares wobble, on track for monthly loss (Business Insider)

Asian shares wobbled in early trade on Tuesday and were on track for a monthly loss, while the dollar edged away from recent peaks scaled on heightened expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as next month.

Sustainable investing sees hippies give way to suits (Bloomberg)

Sustainable investing is moving from the confines of speciality funds to broader traditional investment analysis. A greater recognition of the financial cost of environmental, social and governance issues, better company data disclosure and investor demand are among factors driving the change.

Treasuries Lose Their Lead Over Shares as Fed Moves Toward Shift (Bloomberg)

Treasuries have lost their edge over stocks as the U.S. economy expands enough to push the Federal Reserve toward raising interest rates.

It may be the end of hedge funds as we know it (Business Insider)

There's a colloquialism that hedge fund managers are "masters of the universe."

The Real Problem With Inflation-Protected Bonds (Canadian Couch Potato)

When I announced my stripped-down model portfolios at the beginning of last year, one of the asset classes I dropped was real-return bonds (RRBs). Part of the reason was simplicity: it’s easier to manage a portfolio of three or four funds compared with five or six,

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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard speaks at a public lecture on ''Slow Normalization or No Normalization'' in Singapore May 26, 2016. REUTERS/Edgar SuFed's Bullard says global markets seem well-prepared for summer rate hike (Reuters)

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday global markets appear to be "well-prepared" for a summer interest rate hike from the Fed, although he did not specify a date for the policy move.

Oil States Expected to Stick With Saudis : OPEC Reality Check (Bloomberg)

OPEC members gathering in Vienna June 2 are expected to go along with a Saudi Arabia-led policy focused on squeezing out rivals amid signs the strategy is working. That means the meeting may be less fraught than the previous summit in December, which ended with public criticism of the Saudi position from Venezuela and Iran.

Oil prices drift lower as OPEC meeting nears (Market Watch)

Crude oil prices drifted lower on Monday as investors wait to take cues from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting Thursday, where the supply issue is expected to take center stage.

The Greatest Cost of All (Value Walk)

One of the things about finance that has often baffled me is how it is that so many are very familiar with the basics of investing, but very few seem truly to understand its wider implications.

Stock futures rise in shortened trading day as investors brush aside Yellen comments (Market Watch)

Stock futures pointed slightly higher in a shortened session on the Memorial Day holiday Monday, rising against a backdrop of a stronger dollar after heavy hints of a U.S. interest rate cut from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen late last week.

Could Banks Down Under Go Under? (Bloomberg View)

It may seem to be in ruddy economic health, but Satyajit Das says Australia's financial sector is on shakier ground than many realize. And as long as the banks remain dependent on a debt-fueled property market and a now-slowing natural resources sector, he says, the entire country

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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Are We Ready for the Next Recession? (PS Mag)

Sometime in the next three years, the United States economy will likely enter another recession.

In Australia, All That Glitters Isn't Gold (Bloomberg View)

If Australia is an economic miracle — the so-called Lucky Country, beneficiary of more than a quarter century of uninterrupted growth — then its banks are its most visible sign of strength. After a near-death experience in the 1990s, they’ve reformed and bounced back dramatically: Returns on equity now average around 15 percent, compared to single digits in the U.S. Share prices and dividends have risen strongly over the past decade. At around twice book value, market valuations are well above global levels.

A shop clerk (2nd R) carries a box of shoes under sale signboards at a shoes retail store at a shopping district in Tokyo, Japan, April 28, 2015 file photo. REUTERS/Yuya Shino/Files Japan weak retail sales bolsters tax hike delay plan (Business Insider)

Japanese retail sales fell in April for the second consecutive month, bolstering the argument that a nationwide sales tax increase scheduled for April next year should be delayed.

Japanese retail sales fell 0.8 percent in April from a year earlier, less than a median market forecast for a 1.2 percent annual decline, government data showed on Monday. That marked the fastest decline since March 2015.

The biggest problem in the bond market explained with the help of fried chicken (Business Insider)

What is liquidity?

It is a big topic in financial markets — especially the bond market lately, where there's been a lot of hand wringing about the lack of liquidity.

“3 Things That Surprised Me When I Browsed 12,000 Mutual Funds” (Medium)

My team just launched Goodbye Gun Stocks. It is a website made for activism?—?it helps you find gun-related stocks in your mutual funds, and discover gun-free alternatives.

Why May jobs report won’t reflect speedier economy (Market Watch)

The economy has

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When Opportunity Knocks, Answer the Door.


When Opportunity Knocks, Answer the Door.

Courtesy of Paul Price at Guru Focus

Market action can tell you a lot about the probability of a buyout proposal actually going through.

Hong Kong-based Zoomlion Heavy Industries had made a firm offer to acquire Terex (NYSE:TEX) after raising its offer from $30 to $31, outbidding Finnish company Konocranes Plc’s (KNCRY) earlier all-stock takeover bid, recently worth only about $20 for each TEX share.

Terex’s approximately $25/share market price told us that traders were skeptical that a deal would go through. 

Management at Terex had hedged its bet on May 16, 2016, when it agreed to sell its material handling and port-solutions division to Konocranes for $1.28 billion. That unit accounted for $1.44 in 2015 revenues, but lost $8.6 million last year, mostly due to negative currency fluctuations.

Now that Zoomlion has left the scene Terex avoids a $37 million break-up fee which would have been due to Konocranes. If the less-than-full-company sale closes, TEX will instantly become more profitable while also sprucing up its balance sheet.

A rekindling of a full-blown takeover by Konocranes is still a rumored possibility.

Terex now looks quite inexpensive. Its shares routinely traded at much higher levels during the past four or five years. From late 2006 through early 2008, before The Great Recession, TEX had established all-time highs ranging from $66 to north of $96 per share.

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The 5:15?


The 5:15?

"Why should I care? Why should I care?" – 5:15 – The Who


In choosing a subway system as the backdrop for his film, Besson is able to create two distinct worlds with their own sets of societal norms and rules of conduct. The inhabitants of the subway system live in their own world, their struggles carry a certain righteousness and a much needed alternative to the conventional ways of living. Above ground in the conventional world, the gangster Fred has robbed wields power against him, sending in his henchmen and pressuring the Metro police to track Fred down at all costs.

As a clash of two different worlds, philosophies and character metamorphosis ensues, a confluence of money, information and power are at the heart of this story. The film is exuberant, subversive, glossy, beautifully constructed, and above all else FUN as hell.

Shanghai Accord vs. Yen/USD Carry

"The currency rift also undermines a theory that policy makers used a Shanghai gathering of the larger Group of 20 economies in February to agree on a secret pact to weaken the dollar, similar to the 1985 Plaza Accord." - Philip Davis

Another urban myth created as a distraction, bites the dust. As long as "dollar" liquidity remains an ongoing market making issue, the JPY/USD carry trade shall continue. The Yen will appreciate vs. USD when that trade is on and the BOJ can bellow all it wants to no avail.

Above note, the convergence in weekly JPY/USD (large bars) vs. SP500, weaker Yen vs. USD, stronger SP500 and vice versa until Feb 11th.

Above note the divergence of that relationship on a daily since Feb 11th. Stronger Yen vs. USD, stronger SP500 and vice versa.

Above note, a nice view.

"This is far from the end of it as, just this morning, Japan's April Trade Data showed exports falling a shocking 10.1%, accelerating March's 6.8% decline as the Yen gained 4% over that

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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

The side effects of negative interest rates are 'fanning out across the globe' (Business Insider)

The side effects of Negative Interest Rate Policies in Europe and Japan — what we’ve come to call the NIRP absurdity — are becoming numerous and legendary, and they’re fanning out across the globe, far beyond the NIRP countries.


Bond Traders Say Don't Count Out June Hike After Yellen Remarks (Bloomberg)

Treasuries traders who delayed holiday getaway plans on Friday took away a clear message from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen — a mid-year interest-rate hike may be on the way.

OPEC is Driving Oil Prices, Blindfolded (Fox Business)

Two years ago, when Saudi Arabia and its fellow OPEC members started to balk at reducing crude production to keep oil prices elevated, they were playing the one card they could to keep long-term market share.

isis oil attack libyaThis is the 'reckoning point' for a bunch of oil producers (Business Insider)

Oil prices have rebounded over the past few months.

Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude are currently around $49 a barrel, well above their lows below $30 a barrel earlier this year.

Wall Street looks to economic data for clues on the Fed (Market Watch)

Memorial Day marks the unofficial beginning of summer, but baseball and barbecues may have to take a back seat to Fed watching for a while longer for investors who remain preoccupied with the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate increase.

Currency Tranquility Is Calm Before Storm as Risks Taunt Traders (Bloomberg)

It’s all quiet in currency markets, a little too quiet for some traders who warn that an uptick in volatility is just around the corner.

Here's how the finance industry plays tricks on you (Business Insider)

One of the problems with the typical “trust me, we got this” attitude that you often see with financial professionals

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Comment by stjeanluc

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  1. stjeanluc

    Making a quintuple top… A new QE era technical pattern!

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World


FInancial Markets and Economy

A street sign is seen in front of the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in New York, February 10, 2009. REUTERS/Eric ThayerFed reaction to data barrage is focus for stocks (Business Insider)

Data on inflation and employment, two of the economic indicators most important to a "data-dependent" U.S. Federal Reserve are expected next week.

Here’s one really obvious way to boost the US economy (Quartz)

If you’re confused about why American economic growth has been so disappointing, consider this: US government investment in capital, research and development, and education and training is at its lowest point in 45 years. In 2014, federal investment turned negative for the first time since 2001, meaning that government capital is depreciating or becoming obsolete faster than it is being replaced.

Stocks Warm to Economy as Fed Recedes in Best Week Since March (Bloomberg)

Here’s a twist: U.S. stock investors aren’t melting down at the thought of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase.

The New Oil Traders: Moms and Millennials (Wall Street Journal)

When Erika Cajic woke before dawn one morning in early May and read that wildfires were breaking out in an oil-producing region of Alberta, she sat down on the family room couch with a cup of hot chocolate and her laptop and bought shares of an investment linked to crude.

Three US companies are hoarding the most cash (Business Insider)

Apple was reportedly considering buying media giant Time-Warner late last year, which would've given it a huge content business including media brands like CNN and HBO. It also would've cost at least $60 billion, which is Time-Warner's current market capitalization.


What You Should Know About Factor ETFs (ETF)

Factor investing is all the rage today.

Oil rig count resumes its slide (Business Insider)

The oil rig count resumed its decline this week, falling 2 to 316, according to driller Baker Hughes. 

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Losers Average Losers

Is there a difference between adding to a losing position on the way to building a fortune and doubling down on a loser stock in a series of bad bets? Perhaps you see something the market has missed? Perhaps your timing is excellent (the second third fourth time)? Perhaps you're Warren Buffett? Or maybe the difference is just the odds, which are around 99% against you. 

Losers Average Losers

Courtesy of 

I’m not a huge fan of this quote from Paul Tudor Jones. Some of the best investors of all time have made a fortune adding to temporarily losing positions. And while this is true, it is equally true that the worst investments and the worst investors have added to losing positions, not knowing when to call it quits.

Let’s use Twitter as an example. If you bought 100 shares of the IPO at 26, and added 10 shares on each of the 25 times the stock closed at an all-time low, you would have tripled your original position, and would be down 30% on your investment.


Thinking a stock can’t go any lower, and then acting on that intuition is a strategy that will leave your account dilapidated. There are a lot of ways to lose money in the market, and 99% of investors who continually lower their cost basis will do just that.

The Conditions You’d Want Are Already Here


The Conditions You’d Want Are Already Here

Courtesy of

Have we corrected through time, rather than through price, enough to spark the next leg higher for the bull?

Consider: No new high since last May, a flat market over two years (three years for small caps), median declines for individual stocks of 30% – not enough? Or plenty, to set up a new rally?

That’s the question on everyone’s mind now as the averages approach re-approach their former highs. The bears say May has been a short-squeeze. They say you’re risking 20% to make 2% to the upside. The bulls (and there aren’t a lot of them) don’t have much to say to counter this, other than the possibility that economic growth picks up in the second half (what else is new) while the Fed becomes a well-telegraphed non-event.

Reading the morning note from Andrew Adams at Ray Jay, I came across this really interesting insight from a trade named Jesse Stine. In addition to pointing out that “Over the past three months (12 weeks), stock funds have lost $33 billion in assets while bond funds have gained $50 billion,” Stine talks about sentiment in the context of today’s actual conditions:

Jesse Stine’s Key Criteria for a Market Bottom:

1. An IPO market that has dried up completely.

2. S&P earnings hitting a bottom and turning higher. (Dollar drop/rising oil stimulant.)

3. A mass exodus from retail investors (dumb money) as they dump their funds.

4. Our “friends” at our investment banks tell us to sell stocks.

5. Zero market speculation in penny/microcap, Bio’s/speculative stocks.

6. Households at multi-decade lows in terms of stock ownership.

7. Retail investor bullishness under 24%.

8. A stretched bond market as investors seek the “safe haven” status of bonds.

9. Longer-term put/call ratios at extremes (investors seeking downside protection).

10. Warren Buffett buying stocks hand over fist after highest cash balance ever last year.

11. Widespread blogger bearishness (dumb money).

12. Speculative “high beta” stocks

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Zero Hedge

FEMA Preparing For Magnitude 9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake, Tsunami

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Starting on June 7th, FEMA will be conducting a large scale drill that has been named “Cascadia Rising” that will simulate the effects of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone and an accompanying west coast tsunami dozens of feet tall. Accord...

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Phil's Favorites

Merkel Ready to Kiss and Make Up with Putin?

Courtesy of Mish.

German chancellor Angela Merkel wants to stand tough against Russia, but Austria, France, Italy, Hungary, Greece, and Portugal have had enough of sanctions that have backfired.

Talking tough may be Merkel’s official stance but circumstances have changed. She is no longer calling all the shots.

Step-by-Step Rapprochement

Please consider Step-by-Step Rapprochement: Germany Considers Easing of Russia Sanctions.

As expected, G-7 leaders reiterated their hardline approach to Moscow in the Japan summit’s closing statement. Chancellor Angela Merkel complained last Thursday that there still isn’t a stable ce...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Set for Longest Run of Gains in 5 Years Before OPEC Meeting (Bloomberg)

Oil is set for the longest run of monthly gains in five years as output disruptions from Nigeria to Canada reduce supply before OPEC meets Thursday in Vienna to discuss production policy.

Every Stock Was a Buy to This Analyst Team, Then Shares Tanked (Bloomberg)

Companies probably love getting attention from analysts at Emperor Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. Investors who followed their advice for the past year, not so much. ...

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By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.



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Chart School

Respectable Finish To Week

Courtesy of Declan.

Semiconductors were the star of the week.  The index cleared Match/April congestion and posted six consecutive winning days in a row. Technicals are all in the green and the index is above all key moving averages. Weakness will be a buying opportunity; a test of the 50-day MA would be a good start.

The Russell 2000 managed to regain the prior rising channel. Technicals are positive although it still has to make up relative ground against the Nasdaq. The index hasn't yet cracked new highs but one more days gain may be en...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Mining Stocks- Most dangerous time to own them in years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.


The rally in mining stocks since the first of the year has been very impressive.

The rally has taken Gold Miners ETF GDX up to test the 23% retracement of the collapse over the past 5-years. At the same time it is hitting the 23% level, two other resistance lines are being put to a test, with momentum at the highest levels in the past 5-years.

Joe Friday Just The Facts...

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Insider Scoop

Graham Media Group To Buy WCWJ, CW affiliate In Jacksonville, NBC Affiliate in Roanoke

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Graham Media Group, Inc., a Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC) subsidiary, said it struck a deal with Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and Media General, Inc. to purchase WCWJ, a CW affiliate television station in Jacksonville, Florida and WSLS, an NBC affiliate television station in Roanoke, Virginia for $60 million in cash and the assumption of certain liabilities.

The agreement to acquire Nextar Broadcasting included pension obligations. Graham Media Group, Inc. would continue to operate both stations under their current network affiliations.

Graham Media said the acquisition is subject to approval by the FCC, other regulatory appr... more from Insider


Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again



After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.


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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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