by ilene - June 30th, 2016 2:48 pm
This week's Webinar is ready. Watch below.
00:01:32 Checking on the Markets: DX, CL, RB, NKD
00:05:10 Chaos created by Brexit
00:09:05 China’s massive debt flowing economy
00:09:58 Japan’s GDP debt
00:10:54 US numbers
00:12:46 Lines: Pivot point
00:16:05 “I want people to be a wolf”
00:18:11 George Soros about Brexit
00:26:47 Brexit vote map
00:35:32 DX over NKD. Support resistance line
00:39:48 Neil Farage EU parliament
00:40:42 EU politicians nobody has a real clue about 80%
00:51:50 Total Broadway ticket sales
01:01:13 Wealth extraction
01:11:30 YG and SI Inflation
01:13:21 Top Trade: BX
01:23:30 Long Term Portfolio
01:26:36 BX Trade Idea
01:34:46 Weekly Chart SPX
01:38:46 5% Portfolio: TLT
01:40:04 Butterfly Portfolio
01:44:34 TLT puts
01:47:47 Checking on the Markets, Trade Ideas
For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!
by Market Shadows - June 30th, 2016 1:50 pm
Financial Markets and Economy
Oil headed for the biggest quarterly advance in seven years as falling U.S. supply added to speculation the global surplus is easing.
Stocks Steady, Capping Rocky First Half of Year (Wall Street Journal)
Stock markets mostly stabilized Thursday, on track for a subdued end to a tempestuous first half of the year.
Apparent demand for oil in China, Asia's biggest oil consumer, headed lower in May as subdued economic activity pulled down gasoil consumption to its lowest level in nearly six years, while gasoline witnessed its first year-on-year decline in consumption since January 2014.
European stocks and the pound held on to a third day of gains as the immediate market flurry over Britain’s vote to pull out of the European Union settled.
Gold futures prices fell and the U.S. dollar mostly gained on Thursday as global markets further stabilized from the volatile trading that followed the U.K. split with the European Union.
A country having vast economic wealth does not necessarily guarantee a greater quality of life for its citizens, according to data from the latest Social Progress Index (SPI).
Japan’s closed-door immigration policy is expected to come under scrutiny after census data showed that more than a quarter of its population is over 64, while the number of children aged under 14 is at a record low – trends that have caused alarm over the country’s economic fortunes.
Unemployment in America
by phil - June 30th, 2016 8:20 am
Do I really have to pretend it's some kind of coincidence that we have raced back to close the quarter just above where we started it in order not to be perceived as a conspiracy theorist? It's not a theory when it happens all the time, is it?
And look at the volume, we gained 70 S&P points in two days on less than half the volume we had when we fell. How does the market go up that much with so much less money coming in? As I noted yesterday, it's a house of cards that can be easily toppled once today's window-dressing event is over. Also, bulls should be very concerned that 2,076.50 is the 50-day moving average on the S&P and, if we can't get over that today – it's a technical failure anyway.
This is not, by the way, sour grapes. Though we believe the market is heading lower (still looking for 1,850 on the S&P over the summer), we are very much in neutral with our paired long and short-term portfolios. On Tuesday we noted that our STP was up to $536,627 and our LTP was at $959,373 as of Mondays close at the lows (see post for strategy details). 70 S&P points later, our LTP has jumped to $1,004,321 and the STP as fallen to $510,062 and that's a combined $1,514,383 (up 152%) and that's UP $18,383 in two days (1.2%).
So we made more money on the way down and we made more money on the way up. Is it alchemy? No, it's BALANCE! We balance our portfolios into uncertain events and, although we have an overall neutral stance, because we are "Being the House - NOT the Gambler", we are still collecting those premiums – no matter which way the market goes. I don't think you can have a better stress test of our system than we've had in the past few days!
Learning how to Be the House and how to balance our portfolios allows us to make money in any kind of market conditions and, more importantly, it allows us to TAKE A VACATION. I went to Florida last Thursday and came back on Tuesday
by Market Shadows - June 29th, 2016 11:29 pm
Financial Markets and Economy
Oil erased the two-day plunge that followed Britain’s vote to leave the European Union after U.S. crude inventories dropped for a sixth week while the dollar retreated against its peers.
The Federal Reserve gave the go-ahead to most banks to lift dividends and increase stock buybacks, a sign of the growing recognition the regulator has afforded the capital raised by the financial sector.
China just hinted it could increase fintech regulation (Business Insider)
Fintech companies in China could soon face some more hurdles.
There’s about to be a flight to quality in China’s bond market.
Fidelity Just Made Buying an Index Fund Vanguard-Cheap (Wall Street Journal)
Money manager Fidelity Investments plans to slash prices on more than two dozen funds that track stock and bond indexes, a big concession to an industry shift toward cheap products.
Kroger joins Walmart, Home Depot in Visa lawsuits (Business Insider)
Visa has been sued. Again.
Japan Exchange Group Inc., operator of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, is having a year to forget, with its stock falling about 40 percent and trailing the almost 7 percent gain of the BI Global Security & Commodity Exchanges Valuation Peer Group.
Wall Street is buying itself (Business Insider)
That is, it is buying itself.
The Dodd-Frank stress tests, which measure whether financial institutions with more than $50 billion in US-based assets could survive a severe recession without infecting the rest of the economy, mandate that if a bank fails the firm is not allowed to return cash to
by Market Shadows - June 29th, 2016 12:08 pm
Financial Markets and Economy
Stocks are climbing again (Business Insider)
Futures are higher for a second straight day since the sell-off after the UK referendum last week. The pound is also higher.
5 Things to Watch in the Fed’s Stress Test Results (Wall Street Journal)
Wednesday may be the most important day of the year for large U.S. banks, with the Federal Reserve set to release its verdicts on whether they have passed or failed annual stress tests. The 33 large U.S. banks taking the test this year passed the warm-up round last week, but on Wednesday billions of dollars in investor payouts are on the line.
The Fed Is in an Epic Battle With Itself (Bloomberg View)
Two Federal Reserve announcements less than a week apart, in contrast to the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision earlier this month, are likely to show that the agency's own goals are in conflict.
European and Asian stock markets built on a recovery from the shattering aftermath of last week's Brexit vote on Wednesday as investors wagered central banks would ultimately ride to the rescue with more stimulus.
Will Brexit Actually Happen? (Bloomberg View)
The Financial Times's Gideon Rachman says he thinks Brexit won't happen. The referendum result doesn't mean that much, he argues.
EU leaders are meeting Wednesday without Britain for the first time to rethink their union and keep it from disintegrating after Britain's unprecedented vote to leave — but conflicting visions of Europe's future are complicating the high-stakes summit.
Deutsche Bank AG, Barclays Plc and 11 other foreign banks have spent several billion dollars in the past three years complying with a new Federal Reserve rule that will trap capital in
by ilene - June 29th, 2016 10:17 am
The shock and horror at the Brexit vote has been loud and vociferous. Some seem to be revelling in the uncertainty that the referendum result has provoked. The pound falling in value, a downturn in markets – it lends credence to the establishment’s claims before the referendum that a Leave vote would lead to economic Armageddon.
But there are plenty of reasons to reject the consensus that Brexit will be costly to the UK’s economy. Even though markets appear stormy in the immediate aftermath of the vote, the financial market reaction to date has more characteristics of a seasonal storm than of a major catastrophe.
We were told that the consensus of economic experts were overwhelmingly opposed to a Brexit. Lauded institutions – from the IMF, OECD to the Treasury and London School of Economics – produced damning forecasts that ranged from economic hardship to total disaster if the UK leaves the EU. Yet 52% percent of the British electorate clearly rejected their warnings.
Something that my professional experience has taught me is that when an “accepted consensus” is presented as overwhelming, it is a good time to consider the opposite. Prime examples of this are the millennium bug, the internet stock frenzy, the housing bubble, Britain exiting the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) and Britain not joining the euro. In each of these examples, the overwhelming establishment consensus of the time turned out to be wrong. I believe Brexit is a similar situation.
The economic models used to predict the harsh consequences of a Brexit are the tools of my profession’s trade. Used properly, they help us to better understand how systems work. In the wrong hands they are also downright dangerous. The collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and the mispricing of mortgage backed securities leading up to the 2008 financial crisis are just two of many examples of harmful consequences arising from the abuse of such models.
The output of these often highly sophisticated models depends entirely upon the competence and integrity of the user. With miniscule adjustment, they can be tweaked to support or contradict more or less any argument…
by Market Shadows - June 29th, 2016 10:07 am
Political News Today via BillMoyers.com
Morning Reads: Istanbul Airport Terror Attack; “Final” Benghazi Report Released
(This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com)
Attack in Istanbul --> The BBC: "A gun and bomb attack on Istanbul's Ataturk airport has killed 41 people, at least 13 of them foreigners, and injured more than 230, officials say. Three attackers arrived in a taxi and began firing at the terminal entrance late on Tuesday. They blew themselves up after police fired back."
Turkish officials were quick to say that ISIS appears to be behind the attack. Reuters: "Two U.S. counterterrorism officials familiar with the early stages of investigations said Islamic State was at the top of the list of suspects even though there was no evidence yet."
Benghazi… again --> After years of investigating Hillary Clinton for personal wrongdoing related to the 2012 attack on the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya, Republicans on the House Select Committee on Benghazi issued their allegedly final report yesterday, "finding no new evidence of culpability or wrongdoing by Hillary Clinton…"
This follows a report by Democrats on Monday tallied up Republicans' spending on the partisan investigation and came up with a price tag to taxpayers of $7 million.
But: That doesn't mean the investigation didn't succeed in saddling Clinton with baggage. Donovan Slack for USA Today: "The National Rifle Association’s political arm is launching its first ad campaign of the 2016 presidential race, with a survivor of the terror attack in Benghazi urging viewers to vote for Donald Trump. The ad, which the NRA Political Victory Fund is backing with more than $2 million, is the group’s first campaign in the presidential race and one of the larger expenditures by an outside group on behalf of the presumptive Republican nominee."
And: The Hillary Clinton email story, which just won't die, also emerged out of the Benghazi investigations.
Soliciting foreign money --> Adam Weinstein for Fusion: "In recent days, as the U.K. pondered its future in the European Union and presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump waded in with a press conference on his Scottish golf course, the Scottish National Party’s 54 members of the British Parliament received multiple emails from…