Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Britain’s ‘missing billions’ put UK on the back foot for Brexit

 

Britain's 'missing billions' put UK on the back foot for Brexit

Courtesy of Jonathan PerratonUniversity of Sheffield

File 20171019 1066 1g0z72c.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Numbers crunched. shutterstock.com

Britain has £490 billion less in its coffers than previously thought, according to revised estimates of Britain’s balance of payments from the UK’s official statistics body, the ONS. Whereas previous estimates indicated that in 2016 Britain’s assets overseas exceeded its liabilities to the tune of £469 billion, this has now been revised downwards to a net deficit of £22 billion. In the context of the potential disruption to trade and foreign investment from Brexit, this is a worrying development.

It is important to note that this does not mean that the country has suddenly become nearly half a trillion pounds poorer. The ONS has now collected more detailed data on Britain’s financial transactions with the rest of the world to build up a more accurate picture of its net stock of external wealth. Nevertheless, the figures do indicate that the UK’s external wealth position is much weaker than previously thought.

Primary income balance revision, UK, 1997 to 2016 (£ billion). Office for National Statistics (ONS)

The country’s net international investment position represents the difference between UK residents’ holdings of assets overseas and foreigners’ holdings of assets in the UK. Although the ONS revision appears dramatic, it should be borne in mind that both British assets held overseas and foreign holdings of British assets are large, each totalling upwards of £10 trillion. Relative to these totals, the difference between these two figures is small.

Plus, this data comprises a range of assets, including British companies investing overseas and foreign companies investing in the UK, as well as cross-border holdings of company bonds, shares and other financial assets. Collecting data on this range of assets is a complex task and the ONS has widened and improved its data collection here. As a result, it has revised downwards its earlier estimates of Britons’ holdings of a range of foreign assets.

Cause for concern

The fall in the pound since the Brexit referendum result increases the sterling value of British assets held overseas. This has improved…
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Uber can’t be ethical – its business model won’t allow it

 

Uber can't be ethical – its business model won't allow it

Courtesy of Murray GouldenUniversity of Nottingham

File 20171003 12163 t2ngad.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

AlesiaKan / Shutterstock.com

Following TfL’s decision to withdraw Uber’s license to operate in London, there has been a widespread picking over of the ride-hailing app’s recent history – and speculation about its future. A fairly common conclusion is that Uber needs to become more ethical if it is to survive.

I want to suggest that this may not be possible. After the calamitous year Uber has had, it should not be difficult for the company to improve its reputation – simply by avoiding many of the unnecessary embarrassments heaped upon itself in 2017. However, merely improving its PR will not get Uber out of the hole it has now dug for itself. It is looking as though, in many territories such as London, Uber’s survival will rely on concrete measures to better care for both its drivers and customers.

Herein lies the problem. It is not that Uber is incapable of such ethical measures. But for this company specifically, the additional cost that is required to look after drivers and customers is likely to be too great. It all comes down to the economic model on which Uber is built.

There is a great tendency among commentators to focus on the capabilities of Uber’s app, when making sense of its explosive growth across the world. This is a mistake. Figuring that Uber’s app explains its growth is like putting the birthday cake’s appeal down to the candle on top. The engine of Uber’s growth to date has been the US$11.5 billion it has raised from banks and investors. The company has never made a profit, and in 2016 alone lost nearly US$3 billion.

These are staggering amounts, and to make sense of them we need to understand that Uber’s business model is the same as Amazon’s. Amazon became the largest online retailer on the planet by burning through huge sums of investment on the way to becoming dominant in an ever-increasing number of sectors, and a de facto monopoly in some such as books.

Now Amazon is able to use its position…
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‘Geostorm’ movie shows dangers of hacking the climate – we need to talk about real-world geoengineering now

 

'Geostorm' movie shows dangers of hacking the climate – we need to talk about real-world geoengineering now

Courtesy of Jane A. FlegalUniversity of California, Berkeley and Andrew MaynardArizona State University

File 20171019 1078 lzm6lf.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Is this the endgame for any geoengineering scenario? 'Geostorm' still

Hollywood’s latest disaster flick, “Geostorm,” is premised on the idea that humans have figured out how to control the Earth’s climate. A powerful satellite-based technology allows users to fine-tune the weather, overcoming the ravages of climate change. Everyone, everywhere can quite literally “have a nice day,” until – spoiler alert! – things do not go as planned.

Admittedly, the movie is a fantasy set in a deeply unrealistic near-future. But coming on the heels of one of the most extreme hurricane seasons in recent history, it’s tempting to imagine a world where we could regulate the weather. Despite a long history of interest in weather modification, controlling the climate is, to be frank, unattainable with current technology. But underneath the frippery of “Geostorm,” is there a valid message about the promises and perils of planetary management?

‘Geostorm’ is far-fetched, but scientists are taking seriously the idea of engineering Earth’s climate.

Fiddling with our global climate

The technology in the movie “Geostorm” is laughably fantastical. But the idea of technologies that might be used to “geoengineer” the climate is not.

Geoengineering, also called climate engineering, is a set of emerging technologies that could potentially offset some of the consequences of climate change. Some scientists are taking it seriously, considering geoengineering among the range of approaches for managing the risks of climate change – although always as a complement to, and not a substitute for, reducing emissions and adapting to the effects of climate change.

These innovations are often lumped into two categories. Carbon dioxide removal (or negative emissions) technologies set out to actively remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. In contrast, solar radiation management (or solar geoengineering) aims to reduce how much sunlight reaches the Earth.

Because it takes time for the climate to respond to changes, even if we stopped emitting greenhouse…
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How China’s skewed sex ratio is making President Xi’s job a whole lot harder

 

How China's skewed sex ratio is making President Xi's job a whole lot harder

Courtesy of David SkidmoreDrake University

File 20171018 32361 mgdwcu.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Chinese President Xi Jinping presides over the opening ceremony of the 19th Party Congress. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

As odd as it sounds, China’s economic policy is being held hostage by its heavily skewed sex ratio.

China’s excess of young, unmarriageable males poses an acute dilemma for President Xi Jinping and other leaders as they set the country’s path for the next five years during the 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress, which opened on Oct. 18.

After years of heavy spending and investment to boost growth and employment, China is at risk of economic stagnation if it doesn’t restructure the economy. Yet there is peril that doing so will lead to dangerous levels of unrest among the millions of unmarried men – known as “bare branches” – who will be laid off from shuttered unneeded steel, coal and auto factories.

So far Xi has tempered reform and kept the money taps open in order to avoid political instability. As the costs of domestic economic imbalances rise and international pressures to cut excess industrial capacity grow, Xi will have to decide what to do about the bare branches strewn in his way. And that won’t be an easy task, as my research on the intersection of economics and politics suggests.

Chinese workers eat their lunch outside a construction site wall depicting the skyline of the Chinese capital at the Central Business District in Beijing. AP Photo/Andy Wong

China’s spending spree

This dilemma has been building for almost a decade, since Chinese leaders responded to the 2008 global financial crisis by channeling massive investments into infrastructure and heavy industry to sustain economic growth and prevent political unrest.

The proportion of China’s economy devoted to investment shot up from roughly a third to close to half – a level unprecedented among modern economies (that compares with only 20 percent in the U.S. in 2015). Since 2008, for example, China’s crude
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US health care system: A patchwork that no one likes

 

US health care system: A patchwork that no one likes

Courtesy of Simon HaederWest Virginia University

File 20171005 14904 1jsbs7s.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, considered a powerful dealmaker, failed to get the necessary votes to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

Almost all parties agree that the health care system in the U.S., which is responsible for about 17 percent of our GDP, is badly broken. Soaring costs, low quality, insurance reimbursements and co-payments confusing even to experts, and an ever-growing gap between rich and poor are just some of the problems.

And yet, this broken system reflects the country’s constitutional foundation and its political culture. At the very core of both is a strong suspicion of governmental intervention and a disdain for concentrated power, paired with an exaltation of individual liberty and personal responsibility.

Translating this ideology into a modern state is a complex endeavor that often leads to constructs that resemble creations envisioned by Rube Goldberg. Perhaps nowhere else is this more obvious as in the American health care system. The result has been the creation of an uncoordinated, often inefficient, patchwork of programs that does not cover everyone, is excessively costly and often provides low-quality care.

The conflicts of the past linger into the present, as seen in the dozens of Republican unsuccessful attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, the Obama administration’s signature, if maligned, law.

More generally, ideologically, the country has failed to reach a consensus about the appropriate role of government in the provision of health care for its citizens. Politically, reforming any part of the health care system becomes a third rail. Yet practically, while often left unacknowledged, government involvement is ubiquitous. Indeed, over time, governments, at both the state and federal level, have come to influence every component of the American health care system.

A fragmented ‘system’

Governments have three major options to provide benefits. They can regulate the conduct of private entities, provide services directly or merely provide financing while having services provided by other entities. In the United States, state and federal governments rely on all three options.

Today, half of
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I teach ethics at the university where Richard Spencer spoke

 

I teach ethics at the university where Richard Spencer spoke

Courtesy of Anna L. Peterson, University of Florida

Once in a while, life provides us with the kind of dramatic moral dilemma that even the most imaginative ethics textbook writer couldn’t think up.

My community – the University of Florida and the city of Gainesville – faced a dangerous and complicated series of dilemmas as a result of a visit from white supremacist Richard Spencer. It was Spencer’s first speaking engagement after his supporters killed one woman and injured 19 people in Charlottesville in August. Spencer was not invited by anyone at UF, but he rented a lecture hall in our performing arts center, as nonuniversity groups do all the time.

As a social ethicist, I frequently teach moral dilemmas, perhaps involving a runaway trolley or a rogue army officer in a remote jungle. These scenarios are meant to give concreteness and urgency to an enduring question: How do we choose the right option when all options will cause harm?

How we respond

Dilemmas like these prompt lively class discussions, often around the two options that the philosophy textbook offers.

On the one hand, there is the Kantian option: Moral laws, such as that against killing an innocent person, must be valid without exceptions. Thus we may not push the fat man into the path of the trolley to save other lives.

On the other hand, there is the Utilitarian model, which tells us to choose the option whose total consequences generate more good and less evil. On this account, we should sacrifice one life in order to save many.

Our real lives almost never force us to choose the lesser of two evils in such dramatic ways, but Spencer’s visit does pose some hard moral choices – although one of them is not whether Spencer’s racist ideology is morally acceptable. There was no debate about that in Gainesville; our community is united in rejecting Spencer’s ideology. The dilemmas, as I see them, are rather about how institutions and individuals should respond in a situation when it seems we must choose among important values such as free speech, peace, racial justice and social equality.

UF denied Spencer’s initial…
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Fabulous Friday Finish – Markets Make New Highs

GE (GE) dropped guidance by 33%.

Not sure why I bother mentioning it, it's only a $200Bn leading industrial company so why shouldn't the Dow be up 100 points pre-market?  Makes perfect sense, right?  GE is a Dow component but it's stock is only at $23.50 so a 6.5% drop to $22 is only $1.50 and that's just 14 Dow points vs a 10% drop in IBM being $15 and adding 127 points the other day.  Get it?  No, nobody does, but it's still our leading market indicator so just play the game and don't ask too many questions.

We have been long on GE since June 27th and we have 2,000 shares at $27.40 in our Long-Term Portfolio but we sold the 2019 $25 calls for $3.75 and the $28 puts for $3.10 so our net entry on 2,000 shares was $20.55 but, if we get assigned another 2,000 at $28 (seems likely now), we'll have 4,000 shares at an average of $24.275.  Of course, then we will sell another round of calls – the 2019 $23 calls are now $2.40 so hopefully we'll get more like $3.50 for the 2020s when they come out.  That will keep our basis around $20 while we collect GE's fat 0.94 dividend so, as long as they don't cut it, we're happy to accumulate down here.  

Image result for dow jones original 12Either GE is going the wrong way or the Dow is and, this morning, we shorted the Dow Futures (/YM) in our Live Member Chat Room at 23,200.  If it turns out the Dow SHOULD be up 28% for the year, then I have to believe GE will find a way to reverse their 20% decline over the same period.  It's not just unusual that GE would diverge from the Dow by over 40% (almost 50% now) – it has NEVER happened, in the entire 121-year history (1896) of the Index (GE was one of the original 12 companies).  Never is a long time, folks – this time sure is different, isn't it?  

As we discussed in Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar – we're not "bearish" on the market, we're simply looking for a nice 5-10% correction that will make us feel…
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The difference between cybersecurity and cybercrime, and why it matters

 

The difference between cybersecurity and cybercrime, and why it matters

Courtesy of Roderick S. GrahamOld Dominion University

File 20171016 30993 j01u8g.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Confidence scams carried out online are still rampant. R. Stevens/CREST Research, CC BY-NC-SA

A Texas woman in her 50s, let’s call her “Amy,” met a man online calling himself “Charlie.” Amy, who lived in Texas, was in a bad marriage. Charlie said he was a businessman and a Christian, and wooed her. “He was saying all the right things,” Amy later told the FBI. “He was interested in me. He was interested in getting to know me better. He was very positive, and I felt like there was a real connection there.” Early on, Charlie told her he was having some problems with his business and needed money. She wanted to help.

From 2014 to 2016, she sent him US$2 million – often in installments of a few thousand dollars at a time, always hoping and expecting to get paid back. After she alerted the FBI, two Nigerian citizens were arrested near Houston – both pleaded guilty to wire fraud charges in connection with Amy’s relationship with Charlie. The person who played the character of Charlie has not been identified.

This story is a cautionary example of a crime that happens online. But most advice for avoiding online dangers – like having long passwords, using two-factor authentication and encrypting data – wouldn’t have helped Amy.

The crime that befell her has nothing to do with cybersecurity. It’s cybercrime, a human-centered crime committed in a digital environment. There are more of these each year: In the U.S. in 2016, 298,728 complainants reported losing more than $1.3 billion in various types of cybercrimes, including romance scams but also involving fraudulent online sales, extortion, violent harassment and impersonation scams, among others. As a social scientist who studies online behavior and as the program coordinator for one of the few cybercrime undergraduate programs in the United States, I find it unfortunate that problems like Amy’s get relatively little national attention, especially compared to cybersecurity.

Understanding the differences

Cybersecurity is not…
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‘Dig for Brexit’ comments reveal the UK government digging a food security hole for itself

 

'Dig for Brexit' comments reveal the UK government digging a food security hole for itself

Courtesy of David BarlingUniversity of Hertfordshire

File 20171018 32382 1m07e77.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

‘Dig For Victory’, first time around on an allotment in London’s Kensington Gardens. Imperial War Museum

According to UK transport secretary Chris Grayling, in the event the UK is unable to agree a trade deal with the European Union it can make up for the loss of tariff-free movement of food across the single European market by importing more food from beyond Europe and by British farmers simply “growing more food”. He makes it sound so easy.

More than 40 years of food supply chain integration has left Britain importing almost 60% of its food from the EU, particularly fruit and vegetables. But Europe is also a key market for Britain’s food exports, notably 96% of British beef and lamb, and crops such as wheat and barley. After Brexit, tariffs will significantly increase the cost of these exports. Will UK products be priced out of these markets? Or will the UK government offset the price increase by compensating producers?

Under the terms of World Trade Organisation agreements, the amounts required to compensate farmers for the tariff levels likely to be applied to meat exports could be met under existing WTO rules for agricultural support. But negotiating a trade deal with the EU would be a much better outcome.

Scenarios developed by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, which provides research and development and advice to the farming sector, indicates that only the highest performing 25% of farms will remain profitable. If the government doesn’t step in with similar levels of support offered by the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, the impact of a no trade deal will drive smaller farmers out of business. Similarly, faced with the loss of the immigrant labour from the continent required to harvest and process produce, the fruit and vegetable sector would be devastated.

The devil is in the (lack) of detail

The current secretary of state for the Department of the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs, Michael Gove, has made more emollient statements regarding post-Brexit support for British farming, including maintaining incentives for farmers…
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Warm waters melting Antarctic ice shelves may have appeared for the first time in over 7,000 years

 

Warm waters melting Antarctic ice shelves may have appeared for the first time in over 7,000 years

Courtesy of Sev KenderUniversity of Exeter

File 20171018 32375 b0ry26.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Eastern ice. Shutterstock/Hall

The vast expanse of the Antarctic is a region of the world particularly vulnerable to climate change, where ice loss has the potential to significantly increase sea levels.

Now, for possibly the first time in 7,000 years, a phenomenon known as “upwelling” (the upward flow of warmer ocean water to the surface), is thought to have caused recent ice shelf collapse around the continent – and the glacial thinning associated with it.

Ice shelves floating on water are the oceanic extension of land glaciers and ice sheets, and the primary region for ice loss. As these shelves break apart, the flow of continental ice held up behind them accelerates.

The ocean surrounding Antarctica is extremely cold, but water over 300m deep, Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), is about 3?C above the melting point of ice. Normally, the very cold water above keeps this away from ice shelves. But in some areas, CDW is spilling onto the shallow Antarctic continental shelf, causing the ice to thin.

Ice shelf thinning has accelerated in recent decades, but the picture is not the same everywhere. While the east of the Antarctic has shown modest gains in ice thickness, the west has outstripped this with significant ice loss – up to 18% in vulnerable areas like the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas.

The pattern of ice loss and other observations indicate that warmer water upwelling beneath these ice shelves is driving it. But what has caused this upwelling? Is it related to human activity? And how concerned should we be?

Two teams led by scientists from the British Antarctic Survey, both of which I have been working with, set out to tackle these precise questions by focusing on two vulnerable areas. One site is in Pine Island Bay, in the Amundsen Sea, and the other is in Marguerite Bay, in the Bellingshausen Sea.

The aims of the studies are similar – to monitor the extent of upwelling warm water onto the continental shelf over the past…
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Zero Hedge

Why Bond Traders Have Never Been More Confused: "The Rates Market Is Sending Diametrically Opposite Messages"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last weekend, as Deutsche Bank's derivatives strategist Aleksandar Kocic was looking at the spread between the short and long end of the curve, and while contemplating the lack of market volatility, he concluded that "given where long rates are, Fed appears as overly hawkish – it has only two more hikes to go and, for volatility and risk premia to reprice higher, the gap h...



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Phil's Favorites

Bearish Fund Traders Head For Early Hibernation

 

Bearish Fund Traders Head For Early Hibernation

Courtesy of Dana Lyons, with introduction by Zero Hedge 

'Speculators' have never been so confidently complacent that 'all is well'.

Speculative positioning in VIX futures and options remains at its most short in history as traders refuse to back away from 'what works' as realized volatility collapses to its lowest in over 60 years......



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ValueWalk

Full Transcript Of Donald Trump Interview With Maria Bartiromo [PREVIEW]

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Please see below for the full transcript of FOX Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo. The interview with President Donald Trump today that will be airing across FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Mornings with Maria (6-9AM/ET) and FOX News Channel’s (FNC) Sunday Morning Futures 10AM/ET).

]]> Know more about Russia than your friends:

Get our free ebook on how the Soviet Union became Putin's Russia.

When:

Part 1 - Sunday, October 22nd  on FOX News Channel’s Sunday Morning Futures (10-11AM/ET)

Part 2 - Monday, October 23rd on FOX Business Network’s Mornings with Maria (6-9AM/ET)

...



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Insider Scoop

There Could Be 109% Upside In uniQure As Company Advances Gene Therapy Into Clinical Trials

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related QURE 32 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Wall Street's M&A Chatter From October 19: Uniqure, Ulta, Sally Beauty,...

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Chart School

All Day Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

It had looked bleak for markets at the open following a big gap down. However, this was just a temporary hit as markets came back right from the open.  It's also good news for bulls or long holders. The S&P shows this best.


The Dow Jones actually went as far as to test former upper channel resistance, now turned support.  Volume climbed in accumulation.

...

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Digital Currencies

The World's Largest ICO Is Imploding After Just 3 Months

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Earlier this summer, Tezos smashed existing sales records in the white-hot IPO market after the company’s pitch to build a better blockchain for cryptocurrencies made it one of the buzziest ICOs in the world. As we noted at the time, the company capitalized on that buzz by courting VC firms and other institutional investors with a $50 million token pre-sale. After the company opened up selling to the broader public, demand soared as investors greedily bought up tokens in spite of glitches that threatened to derail the sale early on. By the end of its weeks-long token sale in July, Tezos had sold more than $230 million.

Now, Tezos is proving that authorities in the US and China were on to something when they decided to crack down on the ICO market, which has become a cesspool of...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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