Just Another Cyber Monday (Manic Edition)
by Phil - November 28th, 2011 8:21 am
INSANITY!
That’s what we have today (and what we’ve been having all month) as the markets celebrate the fact that neither the US consumer or the Euro is dead – yet. Holiday sales are apparently up 16.4% from last year with 10% of those sales being IPhones and Ipads so we can thank the actually dead Steve Jobs for saving the markets from a total meltdown this month as we were on track for the worst November EVER until today.
The DOOM meter was certainly set to 100 and, in fact, 100 is about how low the McClellan Oscillator went on Friday – to a state of oversold not matched since August 8th, when the Dow bottomed out at 10,600 so holding 11,200 in this protracted sell-off was a victory, of sorts, for the bulls and certainly a victory for those of you following our Big Chart – which made us perhaps the ONLY newsletter that was bullish on Friday, when I laid out my bullish case and right in the main post – for free – suggested long ideas on:
- Oil Futures (/CL): Was $95, now $100 – up $5,000 per contract
- Gasoline Futures (/RB): Was $2.50, now $2.54 – up $1,680 per contract
And, in Member Chat – our Morning Alert had the following trade ideas:
- FAS Dec $48/55 bull call spread at $3, selling the $40 puts for $2.40 for net .60 on the $7 spread. 5 in the WCP on that one.
- FXE Dec $132/135 bull call spread at $1.20, selling the $129 puts for $1.10 for net .10 on the $3 spread.
- JPM Jan $25 puts can be sold for $1.20
- AA 2013 $7.50 puts can be sold for $1.28.
- VLO June $17 puts can be sold for $2.05
We also speculated on an aggressive AMZN long play with the Dec $200 calls at $2.50 but, overall, we take this 2% bounce after a 10% drop with a grain of salt. As I said to Members in the alert: Just like we watched with amusement while things fell earlier this week, we should take a move up just as lightly until we cross back over our Must Hold Lines – to some extent, we have selling fatigue driving this move – keep in mind my bullish discussion on hyperinflation is more…
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DiggFlip Flop Futures Thursday – What Next?
by Phil - November 3rd, 2011 7:59 am
You got to be crazy, you gotta have a real need
You gotta sleep on your toes and when you’re on the street
You got to be able to pick out the easy meat with your eyes closed
And then moving in silently, down wind and out of sight
You gotta strike when the moment is right without thinking – Floyd
You have got to be crazy to play this market!
Forget dogs – it was the early birds who made money this morning as I finally had a web connection at home and, as we expected due to the time changes, our usual 3am trade came late in the Futures as relentlessly bad news (see Member Chat for details) sank the indexes all the way back down to Tuesday’s close.
We reviewed all the news, both good and bad and I decided it was worth taking a chance on some futures long plays at 3:48 in Member Chat, saying:
The RUT futures are holding 715 so I like a long there (/TF) with tight stops below.
Nas Futures are holding 2,275 and I like a bullish play (/NQ) with tight stops on that line.
Oil is at $91.37 and that may be the low but it’s gasoline we like to get bullish on into the weekend and gasoline (/RB) is down to $2.5999 so let’s go bullish there over $2.60 with tight stops.
EU opens in 10 minutes and their futures are down 2.5% and I could be wrong but I think we’re being manipulated lower into the ECB meeting and the Merkozy statement on Greece.
As you can see from the chart, that was pretty good timing and we stopped out 3 hours later, at…
TGI EFSF!
by Phil - October 28th, 2011 8:19 am
Wow, what a week!
What a month in fact. Another good day and our 10% lines will be back in play on the big chart. As I said on Tuesday morning, we were looking to take back the +5% on the announcement of the EFSF and I had made our bullish position pretty clear the day before on BNN, but I didn’t expect us to hit it THE NEXT DAY.
That’s what we like to call "too far, too fast" and it’s a very dangerous way to rally the markets. Back on September 29th in "Thrill-Ride Thursday – Finding Bottom" I laid out our bullish case when it was VERY unpopular saying:
The hardest thing about range trading is following Warren Buffett’s advice to "Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy." Yesterday we discussed the importance of ignoring the noise of the rumor mill and focusing on the FACTS as we make our investing decisions. With shorter-term TRADING – we have to pay a bit more attention to the technicals but it’s all about taking small profits over and over again.
I had spent the week before laying out my case for why Greece did not matter anywhere near as much as people thought but the most important point I made (that is back to being relevant today) was this:
I spent last week laying the foundation for why we should not be freaking out about Greece but one thing I have learned is you can’t preach Fundamentals to TA people (or use logic on Conservatives) – the words just wash over them like the dog in this Farside cartoon… As I said yesterday (the same 3:10 comment to Members): "I’d rather play the Bull side until the bears prove their case because the absence of constant, relentless bad news is likely to cause a rally."
Germany had approved the expansion of the EFSF that day (September 29th) by a vote of 523 to 85 – not even remotely close despite the fact that the MSM had been telling us the Germans would NEVER go…
Thursday Fix – Victory In Our Time!
by Phil - October 27th, 2011 8:24 am
You ask, What is our aim? I can answer with one word: Victory—victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory there is no survival. – Winston Churchill
I do HAVE to say "I told you so!"
When I was interviewed on Monday and they asked why I’m bullish, I replied that "stimulus trumps everything" and that’s what we’ve been playing for, especially in our new White Christmas Portfolio, which will be off to a rockin’ start with the aggressive upside trades that I not only mentioned in yesterday’s post - which made easy fills yesterday morning, as the markets shook out the last of the weak hands on yet another rumor-driven dip.
We got our daily double on the AGQ calls, as expected and SSO fell all the way to $44.20 (150% profit on that trade if they finish Friday above $45) while FAS dropped $13.35 and that spread will be good for a 2,100% gain if FAS can get back to and hold $14 – which should be a snap thanks to our friends at the EU.
In the morning Alert to Members, I put up this cute little Gif to illustrate the day’s action and it was a real roller-coaster day but we stayed generally bullish, taking quick profits off our morning bear plays on DIA and USO. We added a bullish trade ideas for AMZN (complex spread), TNA (short Nov $40 puts at $3.60) but that was it for the day because my comment to Members at 11:01 was: "Dollar rejected at 76.80 – still hope for the bulls!"
Well, those bulls were us and we already had our bets in place from last week, when things were cheaper so there was nothing to do but watch as the markets took off like a rocket from that point forward. Heck, we were so bullish we even sold NFLX puts (Nov $67.50 puts for $3) as a bullish offset to a DXD hedge (which we’ll pull the bottom of today). On Monday we had picked up bullish trades on AAPL and GLW and I mentioned EWG in Friday’s post (those should be looking good this morning!) as well as our plays to go long in the Russell Futures at…
Which Way Wednesday – EFSF’d Up Edition
by Phil - October 26th, 2011 8:13 am
QEC (China)?
That’s the word out of Asia this morning as the Hang Seng flipped 360 points higher after Premier Wen Jiabao said economic policy needs to be fine-tuned and asked local governments to check for signs of lending distress. The markets took that thin sauce as sign that monetary easing is on the way. You would think people in China would be happy as minimum wages rose at an annualized 21.7% pace in September and when Wen Jiabao promises a chicken in every pot to his people – they are literally excited about the prospect of actually getting a chicken in their pots!
Shenzhen in China is now matching Hong Kong, paying their workers a lucrative $207 per month (don’t spend it all in one place boys). Beijing is the place to be if you are an hourly worker though, with the minimum hourly rate now a screaming $2 – putting the average Beijing worker just 50 hours a way from buying a square foot of living space in the city.
The rise in minimum wages is in line with China’s efforts to boost spending power and domestic consumption. KPMG says that minimum wage levels in China are four times greater than other places in South and South East Asia. However, it believes China can defend its position because of its productivity and infrastructure – something the US used to be able to do as well, one upon a time, before we allowed our infrastructure to slip into 3rd World status (see "America’s Infrastructure Crisis").
As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, Congress is now in year 3 of ignoring the 2009 report (commissioned by the previous administration) that concluded that this country was on the verge of spiraling into a state of permanent decay if we did not IMMEDIATELY put $400Bn a year into fixing things from the above list. In those 3 years, every single one of those infrastructure bills (which create millions of good jobs that can be filled by our millions of unemployed construction workers) has been filibustered out of the Senate with not one reaching the President’s desk since his initial, inadequate stimulus package.
Even if Europe fixes their mess and China does whatever it is China does to paint their numbers for another few years – it will only serve to swing the spotlight back on this dinosaur of…
Call Seller Doubts Double-Digit Gains In Store For Juniper Networks Next Week
by Option Review - October 14th, 2011 1:58 pm
Today’s tickers: JNPR, WFT, SCHW & XLF
JNPR - Juniper Networks, Inc. – Shares in the provider of high-performance network infrastructure rallied as much as 5.2% at the start of the session to a one-month high of $21.50. The stock gained nearly 30.0% off its October 4 low of $16.67, but even so continues to trade at a more than 50.0% discount to its March 8 year-to-date high of $45.01. Juniper’s morning rally has lost some steam this afternoon, with the stock trading higher by 1.6% at $20.75 as of 12:25 pm EDT.
The company releases third-quarter earnings after the final bell on Tuesday, and one doubting Thomas is betting the report will do little to rocket-launch the shares to the upside. It looks like the investor sold a block of 13,000 calls at the Oct. $24 strike to pocket premium of $0.13 per contract. The trader keeps the full amount of premium as long as JNPR’s shares fail to rally above $24.00 at expiration next week. The transaction was not tied to stock, but the investor could already hold a large long position in the underlying. If no stock is held, potential losses the investor may ultimately be forced to swallow are unlimited. But, shares in JNPR would need to surge 16.3% over the current price of $20.75 in order for the trader to start losing money above the effective breakeven share price of $24.13 at October expiration. Shares in Juniper Networks have languished beneath $24.00 since July 28.
WFT - Weatherford International Ltd. – The energy sector is up big and is presently outpacing rallies…
Bullish Options Play Eyes Upside Potential In Plains Exploration
by Option Review - October 10th, 2011 3:47 pm
Today’s tickers: PXP, XLF, TPX & HPQ
PXP - Plains Exploration & Production Co. – A large bullish options combination play yields maximum profits to its owner if shares in Plains Exploration & Production Co. rally more than 20.0% by November expiration. The oil and gas exploration and production company’s shares are up 6.6% at $25.44 this afternoon, bringing the stock’s gains in the past week to more than 20.0%. One strategist expecting the stock to continue its run-up initiated a three-legged spread in the November contract. The trader may be looking for shares to extend gains following the company’s third-quarter earnings report on November 4.
It looks like the bullish player sold 10,000 puts at the Nov. $22 strike for a premium of $0.96 each, in order to purchase a 10,000-lot Nov. $26/$31 call spread at a net premium of $1.47 apiece. The sale of the puts reduces the price tag on the debit spread to $0.51 each, thus preparing the strategist to profit should PXP’s shares increase 4.2% over the current price of $25.44 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $26.51 at expiration. Maximum potential profits of $4.49 per contract are available to the trader in the event that shares in Plains Exploration & Production Co. jump 21.8% to exceed $31.00 by expiration day next month. Shares in PXP last traded above $31.00 back on August 17. The stock has lost nearly 40.0% of its value since it secured a multi-year high of $41.96 on July 21.
XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Financials kicked off the new trading session with a…
Thrill-Ride Thursday – Finding Bottom
by Phil - September 29th, 2011 8:30 am
MacDuff once said:
I grant him bloody,
Luxurious, avaricious, false, deceitful,
Sudden, malicious, smacking of every sin
That has a name; but there’s no bottom, none.
That’s the way the markets feel this week as we, like Henry V – head once more into the breach (or close the wall up with our EU dead!). I had said on Tuesday, that it was 1,200 or bust on the S&P (as usual) and we failed to hold 1,200 and we busted and then we failed to hold the bottom of the rising channel David Fry had drawn at the top of that post (117.5 on this chart) and so we tumble back down towards our much more reliable -5% line at 1,140, which I drew in red.
While tricky, it is not impossible to trade this kind of action. We are very fortunate to have been trading this exact range on our virtual $25,000 Portfolio and we just had our best 2 weeks of the year, despite the insanity, with a net $16,475 gain since 9/15. That’s 66% of $25,000 right there and we’re now at $97,400 and on track to hit our $100K goal for the year on Friday as long as the Russell doesn’t fail 645. If not, as with many trades this year – we’ll work it out!
That’s the whole point of this portfolio exercise – to illustrate the idea of balance, even in aggressive short-term trading. We are never all bullish or all bearish and sometimes we’re wrong but, generally, we simply do more shorting at the top of our range and more buying at the bottom of our range and then we simply sit back and wait for the winners to come in. Of course for almost every winner there’s a loser but then, a week later, the losers are winners too!
OK, so PATIENCE and BALANCE – that’s those are our two points! And taking profits off the table. Right, then our THREE points are patience and balance and taking profits off the table while not being greedy. So that’s FOUR points. Amongst our points are Patience and Balance, Taking Profits off the Table and Not Being Greedy.
As I often say to Members, if you wake up in the morning and you’re not sure if you want the markets to…
Just Another Manic Monday – Value Investing
by Phil - September 26th, 2011 8:27 am
Up, up and away!
As I mentioned in Friday’s morning’s post, we did a lot of bottom-fishing on Thursday as we began to develop Disaster fatigue with long plays on XLF at $11.50, shorting TLT at $123, shorting VXX at $49.50, TNA at $34.50, BRK.B at $65, AA at $10.20, VLO at $19, IMAX at $15.75, BA at $58.32, AGQ at $170, CHK at $27.50, DIS at $30.14 and ABX at $47.50. They were hedged, of course and, for the most part, you still had a nice chance to make those entries on Friday – but not so much this morning as the futures are up about 1.5% already (7:30).
Friday morning, in my Alert to Members, I reminded them that BCS looked like an excellent VALUE to me, no matter what the PRICE was ($8.75 after hitting $8.40 the day before) and this morning, that PRICE is up well over 10% in EU trading. Did the VALUE of BCS change materially over the weekend? Of course not, certainly not by the $4Bn their market cap gained – like the song, the VALUE remains the same – only the highly variable price of a share of BCS is undergoing ch-ch-changes…
I pointed out similar hedged, long-term plays could be made on GS ($94), MS ($13), BAC ($6) and C ($24). Of course we hedged them per our discussion in the morning post (TZA was our morning choice but we’re out over 650 on the RUT) but then we went long on EWG (Germany) again with the very aggressive Oct $16,18 bull call spread at $1.30, offset by the sale of the $17 puts for .90 for net .40 on the $2 spread. 10 of those in our virtual $25,000 Portfolio cost $400 and can return $2,000 in less than 30 days if EWG is over $18 and, guess what – they’re over $18 this morning!
Another bullish bet we placed was USO Nov $28/30 bull call spread at $1.30, selling the $27 puts for $1.10 for net .20 on the $2 spread with a 900% upside if USO simply doesn’t drop from where it is now. That’s what’s nice about options – you don’t need the market to go up to make money good money. On this trade idea, your worst-case scenario is owning USO at net $27.20, about 10% lower than it…
TGIF – Stop the Week, We Want to get Off!
by Phil - September 23rd, 2011 8:35 am
What a disaster!
Of course, that’s why we have Disaster Hedges, right? August 11th was the last time we did a "Hedging for Disaster" post which included a LONG trade idea on gold that’s done now (we’re short) after gaining over 300%. We’re a little mixed in our results on the other hedges but that means we can SWITCH HORSES – from the trades that have already worked to the ones that haven’t yet. That’s how we cash out our winners on a regular basis – it’s the pony express of investing. Our other Disaster Hedges from that post were:
- DXD Oct $23 calls at $2, selling Oct $27 calls for $1.15 and the Oct $19 puts for .70 for net .10. That spread is currently -.05 so down 150% so far and a nice horse to switch to, offering a .05 credit on the $4 spread.
- FAZ Oct $65 calls at $22, selling Oct $72 calls for $20 and selling JPM 2013 $20 puts for $2.05 was a net .05 credit as a backstop to our long financial plays. FAZ is now at $71.34 and the October FAZ spread is now $3.70 but the JPM puts are now $3 so net .70 is only up 1,500% so far. Should the financials stay low, we get the full $7 from the spread and we’re obligated to buy JPM for $20 (now $29.27) in 2013.
- SDS Sept $26 calls at $3.20, selling Sept $32 calls for $1.65 and selling VLO Jan $15 puts for $1.20 for net .35. SDS is only at $25.73 so far (not a disaster yet) and the spread is now net $1.25 and the short VLO puts are .17 so net $1.08 on this one is up 208% and we’re not even at goal – that’s pretty good! Note the spread is LOWER than when we started so this can also be used as a fresh horse with a different offset, like X Jan $15 puts for $1.20 for a net .05 trade.
- TBT was stopped out with a small loss at $24 (fortunately). My comment at the time, with TBT at $24.88 was: "Keep in mind though, that the Fed has said rates will stay low through 2013 so it would be wise to uses stops on the puts, at least, if TBT fails to hold $24!"
- EDZ
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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