6.9 C
New York
Friday, March 29, 2024

Rough Weekly Wrap-Up II

Another week, another 400 points.

Since May 19th we are down 1,186 Dow points in a fairly relentless decline of 9%, a slide that began right on the day oil closed above $125 for the first time.  On the morning of May 19th, my opening statement was "I know I’m worried about the markets when I spend more time than usual reading the travel section of the newspaper, thinking of all the nice, relaxing places I could be this spring if I just cash out.  I hate to be doom and gloomy but I’m looking at $127 oil again this morning and I still can’t figure out how we’re supposed to be paying for this."  

This led us to take the money and run on our 2nd $10,000 Virtual Portfolio of the year at just $16,039 and we closed our $250,000 Stocks Virtual Portfolio as it had gained 62.34% for the year and we closed our year's initial Day Trading Virtual Portfolio, up 314% after 5 months.  It was the right move – Our Short-Term Virtual Portfolio did well as it contained our bearish bets but the Long-Term Virtual Portfolio  has been flat in the month since I got pessimistic and our Stock Club Portflolio, also long-term, is down 7% from it's first trade on April 19th. 

We did manage to make some improvement in our second $25,000 Virtual Portfolio of the year (the first one doubled in a month so we took the money and ran), which I decided not to close as it was at just $29,451 and, since it mirrored most of the $10KP trades, I wanted to keep them running for those who didn't want to close out the positions.  It has been a tedious month of trading but we do have the $25KP up to $44.837, which is not a terrible result for such an awful month.

Even our Complex Spreads Virtual Portfolio, which has our Apple and Google All-Star positions, is up just 21% for the month, despite our playing Apple pretty much perfectly through the latest dip and recovery.  So overall it has been an awful month of trading and this very much heightens the probability that next time I think it's a good time to take a vacation, that I will, in fact, be out the door!

Going with your gut is a very important part of being a trader but not going with your gut is a very important part of learning to trade.  How do you know when to make that transition?  I'm still working on it – time like this, when investor sentiment is crashing and so many things look bad, it's really all I can to to stay objective as the potential to give up and go bearish is "unbearable" and I'm forced to wonder if my gut is wrong.  Looking back on my May 19th call makes me feel a little better – I called a dead top after a great week and I was totally against the MSM, Cramer et al at the time and I'm calling a bottom here and I'm totally against the MSM, Cramer et al now – everything seems to be right in line I suppose!

 Not my Mon, Fran Borges Lllosa's Mom...These things don't turn right on a dime, I made a bottom call last Thursday night and – so far, so wrong.  Last month on Monday the 19th we had a good day in the market and Tuesday morning I warned "I’ve been growling for quite some time now that I want to see a real breakout before we turn bullish and, unfortunately, we could be in for a textbook reversal as we do not have the catalysts we need (falling oil, rising dollar, aid to homeowners) to push us out of a range we’ve been tracking since January 21st ."  That day we did, indeed, drop like a rock and we haven't looked back since

So here we are at the bottom of the January range again and I can almost say the opposite – Where are the catalysts to take us further down?  I don't believe oil is going higher or the dollar is going lower and, while there is no definitive aid to homeowners, that situation is stabilizing at a level I would have to call awful (see chart on Frank's Mom!).  While I'm not putting on my bull horns, I'm also not ready to crawl into my bear cave either.

Last week I said we have to wait for the reaction to Sunday's OPEC meeting to see if it's safe to come out of the woods and while we waited our performance was:

  • Short-Term Virtual Portfolio gained 19% on the week, up 398% for the year.
  • Long-Term Virtual Portfolio  lost 3% on the week, up 137% for the year.
  • Stock Club Virtual Portfolio gained 3% for the week, down 7% for the year.
  • Stocks Virtual Portfolio gained 2.5% on the week, up 9.5% and back to all cash at $273,650.
  • $10,000 Virtual Portfolio lost 4% on the week, we are closing this one at $22,175, up 121% in 30 days.  New $10KP starts Monday.
  • $25,000 Virtual Portfolio dropped 9% on the week, up 79% since 2/19, still can't get going properly.
  • Day-Trading Virtual Portfolio gained 34% for the week, up 51% after 30 days and back to 1/2 cash.
  • Complex Spreads gained 13% for the week, up 339% on the year.

Once again, nothing to get too excited about…  We are in pretty good shape to take advantage of a rally if it comes and not so full of positions that we can't get back to cash or make bearish bets if we are going to break down.  With an empty $10KP and Stocks Virtual Portfolio, half cash in our DTP and LTP and roughly 80% cash in Complex Spreads and our Short-Term Virtual Portfolio – we are in pretty good shape for whatever the market may bring as we get our Q2 earnings in July.

With our Short-Term Virtual Portfolio down to just 18 posiitons and 2 virtual portfolios back to cash, there wasn't a heck of a lot to close this week, even with expirations.  Overall, we closed 82 positions with a 61% average gain but that total was greatly influenced by the large amount of callers who expired worthless.  Our gain on cash was just 14%:

Stock

Description

Type

  Basis

Open

 Sale Price

Sold

 Gain/Loss

%

AAPL 100 Jun 2008 180.00 AAPL PUT (APVRP) LP  $  11,010 6/20  $  27,490 6/20  $   16,480 150%
AAPL 50 Jun 2008 165.00 AAPL CALL (APVFM) SC  $  65,010 6/19  $  74,240 6/20  $     9,230 14%
AAPL 100 Jun 2008 180.00 AAPL CALL (APVFP) LC  $    5,010 6/20  $    2,990 6/20  $    (2,020) -40%
AAPL 35 Jun 2008 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVFO) SC  $  14,710 6/19  $  19,240 6/19  $     4,530 31%
AAPL 40 Jun 2008 170.00 AAPL CALL (APVFN) SC  $  34,010 6/20  $  39,990 6/19  $     5,980 18%
AAPL 75 Jun 2008 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVFO) SC  $  28,135 6/16  $  21,740 6/19  $    (6,395) -23%
AAPL 75 Jan 2009 150.00 AAPL CALL (APVAJ) LC  $280,285 4/29  $330,740 6/19  $   50,455 18%
AAPL 20 Jun 2008 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVFO) SC  $    8,410 6/20  $  10,990 6/19  $     2,580 31%
AAPL 40 Jun 2008 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVFO) SC  $  15,010 6/16  $    7,590 6/19  $    (7,420) -49%
AAPL 20 Jun 2008 170.00 AAPL CALL (APVFN) SC  $  17,010 6/20  $  19,990 6/19  $     2,980 18%
AAPL 40 Jul 2008 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVGO) LC  $  38,630 6/12  $  47,170 6/19  $     8,540 22%
AAPL 200 Jun 2008 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVFO) LC  $  64,030 6/12  $  71,990 6/16  $     7,960 12%
AAPL 75 Jun 2008 165.00 AAPL CALL (APVFM) SC  $105,020 6/12  $  74,990 6/16  $  (30,030) -29%
AAPL 40 Jun 2008 175.00 AAPL CALL (APVFO) SC  $    7,010 6/14  $  10,970 6/16  $     3,960 57%
AIG 50 Jun 2008 35.00 AIG CALL (AIGFG) SC  $            6/10  $    4,490 6/20  $     4,490 100%
AMZN 20 Jun 2008 85.00 AMZN CALL (ZQNFQ) SC  $            6/19  $    1,990 6/20  $     1,990 100%
ANF 8 Jun 2008 70.00 ANF CALL (ANFFN) SC  $            6/14  $       710 6/20  $        710 100%
AXP 80 Jun 2008 45.00 AXP CALL (AXPFI) SC  $            6/14  $    7,990 6/20  $     7,990 100%
AXP 10 Jun 2008 42.50 AXP CALL (AXPFV) LC  $    2,010 6/16  $    2,240 6/16  $        230 11%
BA 80 Jun 2008 75.00 BA CALL (BAFO) SC  $    8,170 6/19  $  11,990 6/19  $     3,820 47%
BA 75 Jun 2008 75.00 BA CALL (BAFO) SC  $    6,760 6/19  $  11,240 6/19  $     4,480 66%
BA 100 Jul 2008 75.00 BA CALL (BAGO) LC  $  34,510 6/5  $  36,290 6/18  $     1,780 5%
BAC 80 Jun 2008 30.00 BAC CALL (BACFF) SC  $            6/19  $    6,390 6/20  $     6,390 100%
BHP 10 Jun 2008 90.00 BHP PUT (BHPRR) SP  $    4,110 5/20  $    4,190 6/17  $         80 2%
BMY 160 Jun 2008 20.00 BMY CALL (BMYFD) SC  $            6/19  $    5,910 6/20  $     5,910 100%
BSX 30 Jun 2008 12.50 BSX CALL (BSXFV) SC  $    1,060 4/11  $    4,220 6/20  $     3,160 298%
C 20 Jun 2008 22.50 C PUT (CRA) SP  $    4,310 5/20  $    2,390 6/19  $    (1,920) -45%
C 20 Jun 2008 20.00 C PUT (CRD) SP  $      370 6/9  $    1,410 6/19  $     1,040 281%
C 80 Jun 2008 20.00 C CALL (CFD) LC  $  13,130 5/20  $  27,570 6/16  $   14,440 110%
CCJ 20 Jun 2008 40.00 CCJ CALL (CCJFH) SC  $            6/14  $    1,990 6/20  $     1,990 100%
CHL 10 Jun 2008 70.00 CHL CALL (CHLFN) SC  $            6/16  $       940 6/20  $        940 100%
COH 20 Jun 2008 35.00 COH CALL (COHFG) SC  $            5/21  $    2,990 6/20  $     2,990 100%
DIA 300 Jun 2008 121.00 DIA PUT (DAWRQ) SP  $  18,010 6/12  $  42,590 6/19  $   24,580 137%
DIA 300 Jun 2008 121.00 DIA PUT (DAWRQ) SP  $  18,010 6/12  $  42,590 6/19  $   24,580 137%
DUG 1000 ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (DUG) LS  $  26,790 6/9  $  25,990 6/20  $       (800) -3%
DUG 10 Jun 2008 26.00 DUG CALL (DZGFZ) SC  $            6/9  $    1,990 6/20  $     1,990 100%
EDU 20 Jun 2008 70.00 EDU CALL (EDUFN) LC  $    2,310 6/9  $            6/20  $    (2,310) -100%
FDX 10 Jul 2008 85.00 FDX CALL (FDXGQ) SC  $    1,810 6/19  $    3,790 6/18  $     1,980 109%
GOOG 100 Jun 2008 560.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFZ) LC  $    3,010 6/20  $            6/20  $    (3,010) -100%
GOOG 30 Jun 2008 550.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFY) SC  $    7,510 6/19  $  26,990 6/20  $   19,480 259%
GOOG 400 Jun 2008 550.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFY) LC  $  34,830 6/20  $            6/20  $  (34,830) -100%
GOOG 40 Jun 2008 550.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFY) LC  $  12,010 6/20  $            6/20  $  (12,010) -100%
GOOG 40 Jun 2008 560.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFZ) LC  $    1,210 6/20  $            6/20  $    (1,210) -100%
GOOG 40 Jun 2008 540.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFX) SC  $  42,010 6/20  $  49,990 6/20  $     7,980 19%
GOOG 20 Jun 2008 560.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFZ) LC  $    6,410 6/20  $    7,190 6/19  $        780 12%
GOOG 30 Jun 2008 570.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFQ) SC  $    9,010 6/13  $  35,200 6/18  $   26,190 291%
GOOG 60 Jun 2008 550.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFY) SC  $  85,210 6/18  $107,990 6/18  $   22,780 27%
GOOG 30 Jun 2008 540.00 GOOG CALL (GOPFX) SC  $163,080 6/11  $  60,580 6/18  $(102,500) -63%
GS 20 Jun 2008 175.00 GS CALL (GPYFO) SC  $  14,010 6/18  $  18,190 6/17  $     4,180 30%
GS 20 Jun 2008 185.00 GS CALL (GPYFQ) LC  $    6,530 6/16  $    4,990 6/17  $    (1,540) -24%
GS 10 Jun 2008 180.00 GS CALL (GPYFP) LC  $    7,010 6/16  $    5,690 6/17  $    (1,320) -19%
GS 10 Jun 2008 185.00 GS CALL (GPYFQ) SC  $    2,510 6/16  $    4,390 6/17  $     1,880 75%
GS 10 Jun 2008 185.00 GS CALL (GPYFQ) SC  $    2,510 6/16  $    4,390 6/17  $     1,880 75%
HOV 80 Aug 2008 7.50 HOV CALL (HOVHU) LC  $    6,970 6/4  $    4,790 6/20  $    (2,180) -31%
ISRG 10 Jun 2008 280.00 ISRG CALL (AXVFV) SC  $    1,810 6/15  $    5,990 6/20  $     4,180 231%
JOSB 20 Jun 2008 30.00 JOSB CALL (QZSFF) SC  $            6/19  $    1,590 6/20  $     1,590 100%
JOSB 20 Jun 2008 25.00 JOSB CALL (QZSFE) SC  $    8,160 5/15  $    5,700 6/18  $    (2,460) -30%
MDT 40 Jun 2008 50.00 MDT CALL (MDTFJ) SC  $    3,410 5/20  $    3,990 6/20  $        580 17%
MGM 10 Jul 2008 45.00 MGM CALL (MGMGI) LC  $    1,960 6/11  $       990 6/19  $       (970) -50%
MRVL 30 Jun 2008 15.00 MRVL CALL (UVMFC) SC  $    6,610 5/13  $    1,940 6/20  $    (4,670) -71%
NYX 20 Jun 2008 60.00 NYX CALL (NYXFL) SC  $            6/19  $    1,990 6/20  $     1,990 100%
ORCL 10 Jun 2008 20.00 ORCL PUT (ORQRD) LP  $    1,080 3/25  $            6/20  $    (1,080) -100%
PCX 40 Jul 2008 160.00 PCX PUT (PNZSL) LP  $  83,250 6/13  $  79,990 6/20  $    (3,260) -4%
PCX 40 Jun 2008 145.00 PCX PUT (PCXRY) SP  $    2,090 6/18  $    9,990 6/19  $     7,900 378%
PCX 40 Jun 2008 135.00 PCX PUT (PCXRW) SP  $    2,900 6/11  $    3,580 6/16  $        680 23%
POT 40 Jun 2008 200.00 POT CALL (PYPFX) SC  $126,410 5/21  $  43,990 6/20  $  (82,420) -65%
SBUX 60 Jun 2008 16.00 SBUX CALL (SQXFQ) SC  $    8,110 5/14  $    4,190 6/20  $    (3,920) -48%
SHLD 20 Jun 2008 80.00 SHLD CALL (KTQFP) SC  $            6/19  $    5,190 6/20  $     5,190 100%
SHLD 40 Jun 2008 80.00 SHLD CALL (KTQFP) SC  $            6/19  $  10,390 6/20  $   10,390 100%
SHLD 20 Jun 2008 90.00 SHLD CALL (KTQFR) SC  $            5/21  $    1,990 6/20  $     1,990 100%
SU 200 Jun 2008 75.00 SU PUT (SURO) LP  $166,220 3/26  $354,700 6/20  $ 188,480 113%
USO 10 Jun 2008 108.00 USO PUT (IYSRD) SP  $            6/19  $    1,990 6/20  $     1,990 100%
UTX 15 Jul 2008 70.00 UTX CALL (UTXGN) SC  $    2,065 6/19  $    2,615 6/20  $        550 27%
V 40 Jun 2008 80.00 V CALL (VFP) SC  $  12,010 6/14  $  10,790 6/20  $    (1,220) -10%
VLO 10 Jul 2008 45.00 VLO CALL (VLOGI) LC  $    1,910 6/19  $    1,420 6/20  $       (490) -26%
VLO 20 Jul 2008 47.50 VLO CALL (VLOGW) LC  $    3,010 6/9  $    2,900 6/19  $       (110) -4%
VLO 20 Jul 2008 47.50 VLO CALL (VLOGW) LC  $    3,010 6/9  $    2,750 6/18  $       (260) -9%
WFMI 20 Jun 2008 28.00 WFMI CALL (FMQFO) SC  $            5/21  $       890 6/20  $        890 100%
WFR 20 Jun 2008 65.00 WFR PUT (WFRRM) SP  $      310 6/5  $    4,990 6/20  $     4,680 1510%
XOM 200 Jun 2008 90.00 XOM CALL (XOMFR) LC  $    4,010 6/18  $            6/20  $    (4,010) -100%
XOM 100 Jun 2008 85.00 XOM PUT (XOMRQ) LP  $    1,110 6/18  $            6/20  $    (1,110) -100%
XOM 40 Jun 2008 90.00 XOM PUT (XOMRR) SP  $    7,210 6/10  $  13,790 6/17  $     6,580 91%

 

 

Subscribe
Notify of
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Stay Connected

157,450FansLike
396,312FollowersFollow
2,280SubscribersSubscribe

Latest Articles

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x