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The Hangover

The Hangover

Cocktail

Courtesy of Macro Man

Today’s post will be mercifully short, as last night was Macro Man’s office Christmas party. Overconsumption of adult beverages has left him nursing a startlingly powerful hangover, and he really hasn’t got the energy to do more than point at pictures.

Thankfully, China released a veritable library of data last night that makes for interesting viewing. The latest M2 data confirm that Beijing has been throwing a pretty serious party of its own, with plenty of liquid(ity) provided….

[click on charts to enlarge]

The bill hasn’t come yet, so everyone still seems to be having a good time. Even the normally grumpy "foreign devil" guests can’t complain too much; hey, just look at that import growth!

Ah, but some early arrivals who drank deeply do indeed to be in the early stages of the same "pounding head, dry mouth, dodgy guts" ordeal that your author is currently enduring. Copper imports have started collapsing back towards trend:
 

As have iron ore imports:

Strangely, the one commodity sector that seems to be the most resilient is the one with the soggiest price of late, crude:

Of course, China has a relatively lower profile in the oil market than they do in, say, copper. But still, the relative divergence in price fortunes is striking. In any event, it seems as if even China cannot party indefinitely without getting a hangover. Sure, a hair of the dog approach can postpone the pain….but the more that that remedy is pursued, the more painful the hangover will be when it finally comes time to sober up.

 


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