Posts Tagged ‘Janet Yellen’

Friday Fedapalooza – 8 Fed Speakers in One Day + Draghi!

Hang on to your hats!  

Janet Yellen speaks at 10 am, EST and she's scheduled to discuss her "Labor Dashboard" and, from that, the pontiffs will then attempt to read the tea leaves of Future Fed action.  She'll likely note that the Labor Market is generally improving but that there is no immediate reason to raise rates.  The definition of immediate will be much debated.  

If that does not confuse us enough, we will hear from 7 of the Fed Dwarves as well including Williams, Lockhart, Plosser and Bullard.  Draghi takes the stage at 2pm, EST.  In case Yellen's empty promises don't do the trick, Draghi is sure to have even emptier ones – whatever it takes to end the week on a positive note!  

Still, we're playing the day bearish (we added bear plays in yesterday's Live Member Chat and we're short /YM below 17,000 along with other Futures) as it's hard to imagine what Yellen and company can possibly say that they haven't already said.  Unlimited amounts of FREE MONEY forever is already priced into market expectations – anything less will be a severe disappointment.  Any firm mention of ending QE in the next 12 months can send the markets down sharply.  As "clarified" by Goldman Sachs:

 

With opinions mixed as to whether or not Jackson Hole will be the forum for Yellen to say something new, many are trying to figure out if it is a buy the rumor and then buy more after the fact event, a buy the rumor sell the fact event, or a do nothing with the rumors and then buy the fact if the USD is actually rallying after the fact event.

 

According to Zero Hedge, only "Full Doveish" statements are likely to lift the markets at this point.  Those would be for Yellen to:

1) Argue that the


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Meaningless Monday – Waiting for Yellen to Testify Tomorrow

We're got our strong bounces on Friday – now we'll see if they hold up! .  

As you can see from our big chart, we still have Spitting Cobra patterns forming on all but the Russell, which has turned into a Vomiting Cobra, spilling all the way down to the 50 dma at 1,150.  We're still below the Weak Bounce Line on the NYSE – so we'll watch that closely and the Russell needs to get over their Strong Bounce at 1,170 to confirm:  

  • Dow 17,050 to 16,800 is 250 in 3 days so you need to make a strong bounce in 1.5 days in order to have a chance at a V recovery.  Bounces would be 50 points so 16,850 and 16,900 are what we'll watch.  
  • S&P 1,985 to 1,955 is 30 points so 6-point bounces to 1,961 and 1,967 will be our targets. 
  • Nasdaq 4,485 to 4,360 (now I'm rounding) is 125 so 25-point bounces to 4,385 and 4,410.
  • NYSE 11,100 to 10,900 is 200 points so 40-point bounces to 10,940 and 10,980.
  • Russell 1,208 to 1,140 is 68 points and we'll call that 14-point bounces for 1,155 (rounding) and 1,170

SPX WEEKLYAlso key, of course, is the 3 of 5 red signals on our Must Hold line on our Big Chart™ - only the NYSE is likely to make it over today, with a 64-point move (0.5%) taking it back to 11,000 – certainly that's not asking too much before we flip to some more bullish betting, is it?  

We still have 29 stocks on our Buy List (Members Only) and, since they dynamically update, it's very easy to see that about 1/2 of them haven't gotten away yet and are still playable for dip buying.  We also have 29 more stocks from our old Long-Term Portfolio, which we liquidated on May 29th – and that is full of great trade ideas as well.  

We just did Week 4 for our our May Trade Review over the weekend and we slipped to 73% that week (ending 5/23) which brought us down to 84% for the month with 158 out of 197 trade ideas on the winning side.  Still, going from 125-17 to 158-29 was an early indicator that we were losing
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Thankful Thursday – Janet Does it Again!

INDU WEEKLYThank you Madam Chairwoman!  

Not that Yellen said anything of substance but that won't stop her from saying it again this morning (9:30) so let the rally continue – for another day, at least.  

Yellen made an congressional appearance yesterday, where she argued the economy “needed more help”. She didn’t articulate how the Fed might help given the ongoing taper, although ZIRP would continue for a considerable time which bulls took to mean “indefinitely”.

Oddly she also suggested small cap stocks were near bubble conditions but then said she couldn’t see any bubbles.  All in all, it was the kind of obfuscating testimony that would have made Alan Greenspan proud.

RUT WEEKLYAs Dave Fry notes on his Dow chart, that index is just window dressing for the tourists, with 7 stocks (AXP, CVX, JNJ, MCD, MMM, UTX and V) accounting for ALL of the Dow's gains yesterday in this stupidly price-weighted index.   

The Russell is clearly in trouble and tested that bottom bar at 1,080 again (1,088 was the low) early in the morning and we caught the turn on the nose in our Live Member Chat room, when my 10:25 comment to our Members was:  

Wow, what a ride!  Gotta take some profits off the table on the Futures shorts – people don't like Janet's testimony but she can still pull it out with the Q&A.   /NQ at 3,500 – that shouldn't go down easy.  Actually it's a good bullish bounce play, as is 1,090 on /TF (with very tight stops).  /YM 16,300 is also a good line – go long on the laggard.  

SPY 5 MINUTE

As you can see from the intra-day SPY chart – the timing of that call could not have been better!  The Dow finished the day back at 16,500 and, at $5 per point per Futures contract, that made a $1,000 per contract on that call.  We took $1,000 and ran when the Russell hit 1,100 but then got a chance to reload for a ride to 1,110 later that day (+$2,000 per contract).  


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Janet Goes to Washington

Janet Goes to Washington

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant

Pic credit: MTTS

The Senate Banking Committee has approved Janet Yellen as Fed vice chair, bringing her one step closer to becoming the second most powerful asshat within the Fed. Obviously Ben Bernanke needed a chirping puppet at his side nodding yes to each and every statement and he’s about to get the best one they could find.

"The members of the board will clearly have their hands full," said Chris Dodd in response to his committee’s approval. The AP does not specify whether he laughed diabolically or just smirked when he said it. I vote both. 

Next Janet must be confirmed by the Senate. We doubt the Senate knows enough about how the economy really works to offer up much resistance. We guess Richard Shelby has taken Econ 101 however as he stated he was opposing Yellen because she would bring an "inflationary bias" to the Board.

If that’s what we’re calling it these days… 

 


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Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig: Monetary Policy Should Remain on Hold

Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig: Monetary Policy Should Remain on Hold

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

By "on hold" he means don’t buy any more crap assets, you asshats. I could be wrong on that interpretation but I’m pretty sure I’m up on my Fedspeak these days.

MW:

The Federal Reserve should resist the temptation to take more easing steps despite growing concerns in some quarters of a slowdown, said Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank on Wednesday. "I feel that monetary policy should remain on hold," Hoenig said in an interview on the CNBC cable television channel. The Kansas City Fed president said some weak data had not shaken his basic forecast of a modest recovery this year.

In case you don’t already know, Hoenig is the FOMC’s resident cockblocker and has dissented every month for the year. Unlike our buddy Janet Yellen who prefers the yes method. 


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Jim Grant is Confident QE 2.0 Is Just Around the Corner

Jim Grant Is Confident QE 2.0 Is Just Around The Corner

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Jim Grant, one of the most respected voices in the financial industry, joins Zero Hedge and others, who see that the only choice the Federal Reserve has now that the temporary and shallow reprieve from the clutches of the deflationary depression is over, is to print more money in the form of another iteration of QE. Whether this will be another $2.5 trillion, like last time, which was the price of an 18 month delay of the inevitable, or a $5 trillion concerted global effort, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard believes, is irrelevant: the only option the central printers, pardon, bankers, have left is to flood the market with yet more worthless paper (keep an eye out on the doubling in the price of gold the second QE2 is publicly announced, which will also double as the obituary for all fiat paper).

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Grant says that the first order of business tomorrow when the Fed’s new additions officially join their new groupthink perpetuating employer will be "to try once more to print enough dollars to make something happen in the U.S. economy.” The ever-sarcastic Grant manages to completely skewer Janet Yellen, Steve Diamond and Sarah Bloom Raskin, to ridicule the Fed’s 100% track record of not only focusing on the wrong thing time after time, but getting the response consistently wrong with 100% precision, and also manages to makes fun of the Fed’s credentialed WSJ lackeys, who courtesy of the Fed’s "editorial" control over the reporting process, get a direct line into leakable Fed strategy.

Grant’s thoughts on new Fed additions:

"I think the first order of business will be to try once more to print enough dollars to make something happen in the U.S. economy.”

On San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen:

“Janet Yellen has had 36 opportunities to vote on monetary policy at the Federal Open Market Committee and she has voted ‘Aye, yes’ 36 times. 36 for 36 times. Now, has the Fed been right 36 consecutive times? No. I think that Janet Yellen is a well credentialed, consensus-hugging economist straight out of the Fed HR department. She is ideal from the point of view of the Fed bureaucracy. She will make not one ripple.”

On MIT economist Steve Diamond and Maryland
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Phil's Favorites

COVID Concerns Send Casino Stocks Tumbling As Recovery Dims

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

As the recovery stalls, states are pausing and or reversing reopenings as coronavirus cases surge. Mobility trends show retail and or corporate workspace activity slowed in late June, sparking new concerns the casino recovery could be coming to an end. 

The S&P500 Casino and Gaming (Sub Ind) is down 1% in late afternoon trading on Monday. From ...



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Zero Hedge

COVID Concerns Send Casino Stocks Tumbling As Recovery Dims

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

As the recovery stalls, states are pausing and or reversing reopenings as coronavirus cases surge. Mobility trends show retail and or corporate workspace activity slowed in late June, sparking new concerns the casino recovery could be coming to an end. 

The S&P500 Casino and Gaming (Sub Ind) is down 1% in late afternoon trading on Monday. From ...



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ValueWalk

New Climate Risk Rating Of Companies For Investors

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

  • New dataset gives investors temperature ratings for 4,000 global companies, based on targets to cut all GHG emissions they are responsible for.
  • Based on a new approach currently being developed by CDP and WWF, CDP temperature ratings can be used for gauging the temperature pathway of investor portfolios, funds and stock indices.
  • Europe’s largest asset manager Amundi first to use the rating as part of its ESG analysis, and for the monitoring of four global multisector equity funds[1].

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

CD...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Shangai Index Soars Higher, Testing 11-Year Breakout Level!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Shanghai Index (SSE) about to experience a long-term breakout and send the world a bullish message?

An 11-year breakout test is in play that will answer this question.

The Shanghai index trend continues to send a bullish message, as it has created a series of higher lows for the past 24-years above line (1).

This long-term support line was tested at the March lows at (2) and it held.

The rally off the lows has the index testing dual resistance at (3).

Will this important index succeed in breaking out? If it does at (3), it will send a very bu...



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Biotech/COVID-19

As U.S. buys up remdesivir, 'vaccine nationalism' threatens access to COVID-19 treatments

 

As U.S. buys up remdesivir, ‘vaccine nationalism’ threatens access to COVID-19 treatments

Are we really all in this together? ‘Vaccine nationalism’ must be addressed to ensure equitable distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine. (Pixabay)

Courtesy of Joel Lexchin, University of Toronto

At the end of June, the United States government announced that it had ...



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Chart School

Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!


The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and...

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The Technical Traders

Wild Volatility Continues As US Markets Attempt To Establish New Trend

Courtesy of Technical Traders

We’ve continued to attempt to warn investors of the risks ahead for the US and global markets by generating these research posts and by providing very clear data supporting our conclusions.  Throughout the entire months of May and June, we’ve seen various economic data points report very mixed results – and in some cases, surprise numbers as a result of the deep economic collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  This research post should help to clear things up going forward for most traders/investors.

As technical traders, we attempt to digest these economic data factors into technical and price analysis while determining where and what ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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