Posts Tagged ‘Janet Yellen’

Friday Fedapalooza – 8 Fed Speakers in One Day + Draghi!

Hang on to your hats!  

Janet Yellen speaks at 10 am, EST and she's scheduled to discuss her "Labor Dashboard" and, from that, the pontiffs will then attempt to read the tea leaves of Future Fed action.  She'll likely note that the Labor Market is generally improving but that there is no immediate reason to raise rates.  The definition of immediate will be much debated.  

If that does not confuse us enough, we will hear from 7 of the Fed Dwarves as well including Williams, Lockhart, Plosser and Bullard.  Draghi takes the stage at 2pm, EST.  In case Yellen's empty promises don't do the trick, Draghi is sure to have even emptier ones – whatever it takes to end the week on a positive note!  

Still, we're playing the day bearish (we added bear plays in yesterday's Live Member Chat and we're short /YM below 17,000 along with other Futures) as it's hard to imagine what Yellen and company can possibly say that they haven't already said.  Unlimited amounts of FREE MONEY forever is already priced into market expectations – anything less will be a severe disappointment.  Any firm mention of ending QE in the next 12 months can send the markets down sharply.  As "clarified" by Goldman Sachs:

 

With opinions mixed as to whether or not Jackson Hole will be the forum for Yellen to say something new, many are trying to figure out if it is a buy the rumor and then buy more after the fact event, a buy the rumor sell the fact event, or a do nothing with the rumors and then buy the fact if the USD is actually rallying after the fact event.

 

According to Zero Hedge, only "Full Doveish" statements are likely to lift the markets at this point.  Those would be for Yellen to:

1) Argue that the


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Meaningless Monday – Waiting for Yellen to Testify Tomorrow

We're got our strong bounces on Friday – now we'll see if they hold up! .  

As you can see from our big chart, we still have Spitting Cobra patterns forming on all but the Russell, which has turned into a Vomiting Cobra, spilling all the way down to the 50 dma at 1,150.  We're still below the Weak Bounce Line on the NYSE – so we'll watch that closely and the Russell needs to get over their Strong Bounce at 1,170 to confirm:  

  • Dow 17,050 to 16,800 is 250 in 3 days so you need to make a strong bounce in 1.5 days in order to have a chance at a V recovery.  Bounces would be 50 points so 16,850 and 16,900 are what we'll watch.  
  • S&P 1,985 to 1,955 is 30 points so 6-point bounces to 1,961 and 1,967 will be our targets. 
  • Nasdaq 4,485 to 4,360 (now I'm rounding) is 125 so 25-point bounces to 4,385 and 4,410.
  • NYSE 11,100 to 10,900 is 200 points so 40-point bounces to 10,940 and 10,980.
  • Russell 1,208 to 1,140 is 68 points and we'll call that 14-point bounces for 1,155 (rounding) and 1,170

SPX WEEKLYAlso key, of course, is the 3 of 5 red signals on our Must Hold line on our Big Chart™ - only the NYSE is likely to make it over today, with a 64-point move (0.5%) taking it back to 11,000 – certainly that's not asking too much before we flip to some more bullish betting, is it?  

We still have 29 stocks on our Buy List (Members Only) and, since they dynamically update, it's very easy to see that about 1/2 of them haven't gotten away yet and are still playable for dip buying.  We also have 29 more stocks from our old Long-Term Portfolio, which we liquidated on May 29th – and that is full of great trade ideas as well.  

We just did Week 4 for our our May Trade Review over the weekend and we slipped to 73% that week (ending 5/23) which brought us down to 84% for the month with 158 out of 197 trade ideas on the winning side.  Still, going from 125-17 to 158-29 was an early indicator that we were losing
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Thankful Thursday – Janet Does it Again!

INDU WEEKLYThank you Madam Chairwoman!  

Not that Yellen said anything of substance but that won't stop her from saying it again this morning (9:30) so let the rally continue – for another day, at least.  

Yellen made an congressional appearance yesterday, where she argued the economy “needed more help”. She didn’t articulate how the Fed might help given the ongoing taper, although ZIRP would continue for a considerable time which bulls took to mean “indefinitely”.

Oddly she also suggested small cap stocks were near bubble conditions but then said she couldn’t see any bubbles.  All in all, it was the kind of obfuscating testimony that would have made Alan Greenspan proud.

RUT WEEKLYAs Dave Fry notes on his Dow chart, that index is just window dressing for the tourists, with 7 stocks (AXP, CVX, JNJ, MCD, MMM, UTX and V) accounting for ALL of the Dow's gains yesterday in this stupidly price-weighted index.   

The Russell is clearly in trouble and tested that bottom bar at 1,080 again (1,088 was the low) early in the morning and we caught the turn on the nose in our Live Member Chat room, when my 10:25 comment to our Members was:  

Wow, what a ride!  Gotta take some profits off the table on the Futures shorts – people don't like Janet's testimony but she can still pull it out with the Q&A.   /NQ at 3,500 – that shouldn't go down easy.  Actually it's a good bullish bounce play, as is 1,090 on /TF (with very tight stops).  /YM 16,300 is also a good line – go long on the laggard.  

SPY 5 MINUTE

As you can see from the intra-day SPY chart – the timing of that call could not have been better!  The Dow finished the day back at 16,500 and, at $5 per point per Futures contract, that made a $1,000 per contract on that call.  We took $1,000 and ran when the Russell hit 1,100 but then got a chance to reload for a ride to 1,110 later that day (+$2,000 per contract).  


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Janet Goes to Washington

Janet Goes to Washington

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant

Pic credit: MTTS

The Senate Banking Committee has approved Janet Yellen as Fed vice chair, bringing her one step closer to becoming the second most powerful asshat within the Fed. Obviously Ben Bernanke needed a chirping puppet at his side nodding yes to each and every statement and he’s about to get the best one they could find.

"The members of the board will clearly have their hands full," said Chris Dodd in response to his committee’s approval. The AP does not specify whether he laughed diabolically or just smirked when he said it. I vote both. 

Next Janet must be confirmed by the Senate. We doubt the Senate knows enough about how the economy really works to offer up much resistance. We guess Richard Shelby has taken Econ 101 however as he stated he was opposing Yellen because she would bring an "inflationary bias" to the Board.

If that’s what we’re calling it these days… 

 


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Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig: Monetary Policy Should Remain on Hold

Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig: Monetary Policy Should Remain on Hold

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

By "on hold" he means don’t buy any more crap assets, you asshats. I could be wrong on that interpretation but I’m pretty sure I’m up on my Fedspeak these days.

MW:

The Federal Reserve should resist the temptation to take more easing steps despite growing concerns in some quarters of a slowdown, said Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank on Wednesday. "I feel that monetary policy should remain on hold," Hoenig said in an interview on the CNBC cable television channel. The Kansas City Fed president said some weak data had not shaken his basic forecast of a modest recovery this year.

In case you don’t already know, Hoenig is the FOMC’s resident cockblocker and has dissented every month for the year. Unlike our buddy Janet Yellen who prefers the yes method. 


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Jim Grant is Confident QE 2.0 Is Just Around the Corner

Jim Grant Is Confident QE 2.0 Is Just Around The Corner

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Jim Grant, one of the most respected voices in the financial industry, joins Zero Hedge and others, who see that the only choice the Federal Reserve has now that the temporary and shallow reprieve from the clutches of the deflationary depression is over, is to print more money in the form of another iteration of QE. Whether this will be another $2.5 trillion, like last time, which was the price of an 18 month delay of the inevitable, or a $5 trillion concerted global effort, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard believes, is irrelevant: the only option the central printers, pardon, bankers, have left is to flood the market with yet more worthless paper (keep an eye out on the doubling in the price of gold the second QE2 is publicly announced, which will also double as the obituary for all fiat paper).

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Grant says that the first order of business tomorrow when the Fed’s new additions officially join their new groupthink perpetuating employer will be "to try once more to print enough dollars to make something happen in the U.S. economy.” The ever-sarcastic Grant manages to completely skewer Janet Yellen, Steve Diamond and Sarah Bloom Raskin, to ridicule the Fed’s 100% track record of not only focusing on the wrong thing time after time, but getting the response consistently wrong with 100% precision, and also manages to makes fun of the Fed’s credentialed WSJ lackeys, who courtesy of the Fed’s "editorial" control over the reporting process, get a direct line into leakable Fed strategy.

Grant’s thoughts on new Fed additions:

"I think the first order of business will be to try once more to print enough dollars to make something happen in the U.S. economy.”

On San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen:

“Janet Yellen has had 36 opportunities to vote on monetary policy at the Federal Open Market Committee and she has voted ‘Aye, yes’ 36 times. 36 for 36 times. Now, has the Fed been right 36 consecutive times? No. I think that Janet Yellen is a well credentialed, consensus-hugging economist straight out of the Fed HR department. She is ideal from the point of view of the Fed bureaucracy. She will make not one ripple.”

On MIT economist Steve Diamond and Maryland
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Phil's Favorites

Rabobank: "A Dangerous Moment"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The markets have started a new week of trading in risk off mode (when this note was heading to press) amid fading expectations that the US Congress will pass another fiscal package. With just 8 days left until the presidential election, both sides may not have a sufficient incentive to reach an agreement. Even if there is no deal in the coming days, a fiscal stimulus is still likely to be agreed after the election to support businesses and households as the US is struggling to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, President Trump’s chief of staff openly admitted that the US is “not going to control” the pandemic and instead will focus on “proper mitigation factors”, such as vaccines and treatments. Former Vice President Biden s...



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Zero Hedge

Rabobank: "A Dangerous Moment"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The markets have started a new week of trading in risk off mode (when this note was heading to press) amid fading expectations that the US Congress will pass another fiscal package. With just 8 days left until the presidential election, both sides may not have a sufficient incentive to reach an agreement. Even if there is no deal in the coming days, a fiscal stimulus is still likely to be agreed after the election to support businesses and households as the US is struggling to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, President Trump’s chief of staff openly admitted that the US is “not going to control” the pandemic and instead will focus on “proper mitigation factors”, such as vaccines and treatments. Former Vice President Biden s...



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ValueWalk

Trump Will Deliver Stunning Upset: Polls Are Tightening

By insidermonkey. Originally published at ValueWalk.

This is my second follow-up article about the presidential election polls and predictions about Donald Trump losing and the election results. You can read the last article here.

Polls are usually accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections. There are two exceptions. When the outcome of the election depends on the results of a single state like Florida and there are only a few thousand votes separating the both candidates. The other exception is when the respondents of a poll don’t reveal their true intentions to the pollsters. This is what happened four years ago. Poll aggregators like Fivethirtyeight failed miserabl...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An epidemiologist explains the new CDC guidance on 15 minutes of exposure and what it means for you

 

An epidemiologist explains the new CDC guidance on 15 minutes of exposure and what it means for you

A girl wearing a mask walks down a street in the Corona neighborhood of Queens on April 14, 2020 in New York City. Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Ryan Malosh, University of Michigan

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has new guidance clarifying what exactly “close cont...



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Politics

How to track your mail-in ballot

 

How to track your mail-in ballot

Make sure you know when your ballot is arriving, and whether it’s been accepted for counting back at your election office. erhui1979/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

Many voters who want to participate in the election by mail are concerned about when they’ll receive their ballot – and whether it will get back in time to be counted.

The pandemic has caused interest in ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper/Gold Indicator Breaking Out Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Doc Copper/Gold ratio broke above a 2-year falling channel back in 2016 at (1). Following this breakout, it rallied for the next year. During that year, Copper related assets did very well!

The ratio peaked in the summer of 2018 and created a series of lower highs over the past two years.

The strength of late has the ratio attempting to break above dual resistance at (2).

If the ratio continues to push higher and succeeds in breaking out, Copper, Basic Materials (XLB), and ...



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Chart School

Dow Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Time to see what happens to the Dow post US elections.

The Dow Gann Angle Target 3 (from 2007 top) is on the table, and what a ride that will be. The FED went BRRRRR is all the fundamental news you need to know. Gann angles are very good tool to see how the masses are pushing price.


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The last two US elections saw Bitcoin and the DOW rally well for 6 months, due to stimulus. The most bearish 2020 US Election case for the markets is a Biden win with the Senate and Congress controlled by the Democrats, somehow this blog feels that is very unlikely. So what could go wrong!


...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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