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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Mish Mailbag: How Can My “Sidelines Dad” Get in the Market Safely?

Courtesy of Mish.

Reader Larry wants to know what advice I can give to his dad, sitting on the sidelines since 2009, waiting for the DOW to hit 6,000 which never happened.

Image from Why sitting on the sidelines in life — and investing — can be a big mistake.

Sitting on the sidelines in life is indeed a mistake.

But ask those who chased real estate in 2007 or dotcom companies in 2000 about investment mistakes.

Better yet ask Japanese Nikkei investors still hoping to get back to even after three decades. Contrary to near-universal disbelief,  that can happen here.

How long is your time horizon?

Larry writes:

Hi Mish,

Please do a story on how older people like my dad 68 can re-enter the stock market to balance out his portfolio at the next 40% bottom. He has had a war chest of $5 million to put in equities in 2009. He picked 6000 on the Dow as a starting point which proved greedy. At 6700 it got close but he thought it would be a dead cat bounce. He did not understand how QE would cause zero interest rates and allow companies to refi their debt and show more profits.

So far he has been willing to be patient and not chase yield. He is surprised how long the low-interest rate environment has lasted. He did not think he would have another opportunity but now he thinks he might. He also has money set aside to buy more real estate but the low caps and retail and office weakness have kept that in his pocket too. He missed the apartment rent increase play.

What would you have told people like him to do in 2009 and what would you tell them to do when the market gets whittled down slowly vs 1929, 2000, 2009? I Hate to see him do the wrong thing at his age.

Probably a lot of your readers are like him conservative to a fault.

Happiness = Wealth

For starters, it seems like your dad has $5 million. How bad can that be?


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