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Top Trade Tuesday – Q4 2020

Not much excitement today so a good time to review.

So far, the first 3 quarters of 2020 have been very successful with 36 (94.7%) of our 38 Top Trade Ideas already winners for $591,527 in profits – no wonder it's our most popular feature!  It's important to note that these are nice, simple trades we do on mostly blue chip stocks and we don't even adjust them – that's how we can do things if we simply pick strong Fundamentals and that's what our Top Trades are all about – spreads that we feel are most likely to produce winners over time.  

Top Trade Reviews are very useful when you are looking for trade ideas to fill in portfolio gaps.  Looking at the last review, I see T is cheap again, INTC is down, WBA cheap, and VIAC still cheap.  Going back in time and getting back into stocks that have performed in the past is a great way to fill in the gaps in your portfolio.  Just yesterday, in fact, we added INTC back into our Long-Term Portfolio (and it was a Top Trade Alert – again!).

We were very cautious in Q4 of last year so I'll be curious to see what we picked.  We had lightened up our portfolios into the quarter, much as we did this year as well.  By the way, I know our Top Trade Picks are erratic because we don't let an arbitrary schedule like "every week" dictate when we find a great pick.  We're not getting 94.7% right because we take the best of whatever we see on a Friday.  WHEN we see a great deal – THEN we make it a Top Trade Alert – if there are no good trades in a month – so be it.  If there are four in one day – that's fine too.

Top Trades for Thu, 01 Oct 2020 13:39 – EPD

Good little company with a nice dividend.  I like it!   We already have ET in the Dividend Portfolio but I think there's room for EPD and their $1.78 dividend so let's go for the following:

  • Buy 1,000 shares EPD at $15.92 ($15,920) 
  • Sell 10 EPD 2023 $13 puts for $2.85 ($2,850)
  • Sell 10 EPD 2023 $15 calls for $3 ($3,000) 

That's net $10,070 on the $15,000 spread so about 50% upside and the $1.78 dividend is 17.67% while you wait!  Worst case is we get to own 2,000 shares at an average of $11.53, which is a 27.5% discount to the current price.  That's the worst case – and we're not even counting the $3.50(ish) you will collect in dividends over 2 years.  Aren't options fun?

We are way over target on this one and will likely get called away at $15,000 in Jan 2023 for a $4,930 profit and we just collected an 0.45 ($450) dividend on the 28th and that was our 5th so $2,250 in dividends plus $4,930 in profit is $7,180 in returns so far for a 71.3% profit in just over a year.  Who says dividend stocks are boring?  

Top Trades for Thu, 08 Oct 2020 08:44 – JETS and Future Is Now Portfolio Review

So that makes a 2023 spread on JETS kind of interesting with Trump promising to save the airlines and the Democrats trying to save the airlines.  Eventually, hopefully, SOMEONE will actually save the airlines.  For a trade in our Future is Now Portfolo, I'd go for:

  • Sell 10 JETS 2023 $15 puts for $4.40 ($4,400) 
  • Buy 15 JETS 2023 $15 calls for $6.50 ($9,750) 
  • Sell 15 JETS 2023 $25 calls for $3.65 ($5,475) 

That's a net $125 credit on the $15,000 spread so, if all goes well, it will make $15,125 (12,100%) if JETS is back over $25 in 2023.  Worst case is owning 1,000 shares at $15 (less the $125 credit) and we can always sell calls to lower that risk if we lose confidence but it's a nice, optimistic bet on things getting back to normal – one day.  Ordinary margin requirements on ETFs are pretty low, just $841 for this one so it's a very margin-efficient trade as well! 

We were way over target and now but, at the moment, the short puts are just 0.55 ($55) and the $15 ($8.55)/25 ($2.35) bull call spread is net $6,20 ($9,300) for net $9,245, a $9,370 (7,496%) gain off our original credit.  Aren't options fun?  

Top Trades for Mon, 12 Oct 2020 06:53 – IBM

Of course you can own IBM for $100 by selling the 2023 $100 puts for $11.50 so, if we consider that free money, then our trade can be:

  • Sell 5 IBM 2023 $100 puts for $11.50 ($5,750) 
  • Buy 10 IBM 2023 $110 calls for $26 ($26,000)
  • Sell 10 IBM 2023 $125 calls for $19 ($19,000) 

That's net $1,250 on a $15,000 spread so there's $13,750 (1,100%) upside potential if IBM stays over $125 and, if it doesn't, we should be thrilled to invest more money in rolling down the short calls to the $100s for $5 ($5,000) or less or the $90s for $10 or less ($10,000) and then we'd be in a $35,000 spread for net $11,250 with $23,750 upside potential if we make it back to $125 but our break-even would be $101.25 – that's a risk I could certainly live with!

That's what makes a great trade, the downside to this one is owning 500 shares of IBM for net $102.50.  I'd LOVE to own 500 shares of IBM at $102.50 so there's nothing about this trade that worries me.  I'll almost be disappointed if it goes straight up and all we make is 1,100%.  Meanwhile, it's a nice, margin-efficient trade as the ordinary margin is just $4,028 as it's more than 20% out of the money on the short put side.

We don't have IBM in the LTP so let's add this one but with 10 short puts and 20 long spreads. 

Be aware that they are spinning off so these options will get messy down the road but, like SPWR, I'm not afraid of a good decision affecting our position.

We just sent out a new Top Trade Alert for IBM yesterday as we were excited to get back in at $125.  We cashed out this spread already but, even if you didn't, the short puts are down to $5.20 ($2,600, and no way I would pay that for them!) and the $110 ($19.50)/125 ($10.50) spread is net $9 ($9,000) for net $6,400 which is up $5,150 (412%) but this is a $15,000 spread that's in the money so it's actually good for a new trade with $9,850 (191%) upside potential.  

Top Trades for Wed, 14 Oct 2020 10:06 – GS

There's been some spillover from Main Street to Wall Street as Bank of America's (BAC) profits are down 16% in today's report and Wells Fargo's (WFC) are down 56% but Goldman Sachs' profits almost doubled expectation at $9.68 per $215 share in a single quarter – very impressive.  We don't have much banking in the LTP and GS is a good one (well, evil, but good earnings) so let's add them with the following trade:

  • Sell 5 GS 2023 $165 puts for $20 ($10,000) 
  • Buy 10 GS 2023 $170 calls for $60 ($60,000)
  • Sell 10 GS 2023 $210 calls for $40 ($40,000) 

That's net $10,000 on the $40,000 spread that's 100% in the money to start and all GS has to do is not be lower than it is today in 2.25 years and we make $30,000 (300%) – aren't options fun?  Our worst-case scenario is owning 500 shares at net $185, 15% lower than the current price and the ordinary margin requirement is just $5,718 – so it's a very margin-efficient way to make $30,000 too!

This one is ridiculously in the money – I'm sorry we didn't buy a lot more.   The $165 puts are down to $2.80 ($1,400) and the spread is about $39 ($39,000) so net $37,600 is still up 276% if you cash in early – which you should because, obviously, we can do a lot more with $37,600 than spend a year making $2,400 (6.3%).  

That's part of the less of the Top Trade Alerts.  These are "set and forget" trade ideas that consistently make tremendous returns, very similar to our Long-Term Portfolio picks (often the same).  Understanding that you can consistently make well over 100% returns on cash will hopefully help you to think clearly about the use of cash and margin in your portfolio and not waste opportunities sitting on positions with low potential returns.  

And what was the "risk" to the above trade?  The worst case is we'd be forced to buy 500 shares of Goldman Sachs at $165 per share ($82,500) but FUNDAMENTALLY, we didn't consider that to be a bad thing because GS was ridiculously undevalued.  Clearly the stock has proven that as it's now double our target a full year ahead of schedule.

Top Trades for Thu, 22 Oct 2020 09:44 – CHL

If T is making money, I bet China Mobile (CHL) is making money as they have 950M subscribers and AT&T has around 100M yet T is valued 50% more than CHL, which is trading at 7.6x earnings.  We already have CHL stock in our Dividend Portfolio, because it pays $1.97 (6%) per $32.65 share and we have 1,000 shares so we're going to promise to double down at $30 by selling 10 2023 $30 puts for $5.50.  That would net us into 1,000 more shares at $24.50.

You can just sell the puts for $5,500 to initiate a long position but, in our Long-Term Portfolio, we're going to also buy 30 of the 2023 $27.50 ($6)/35 ($3) bull call spreads for net $3 ($9,000) and that will put us in the $22,500 spread for net $3,500 and we're sure to be able to make that up selling a few calls along the way.  The ordinary margin on the short puts is $1,444 so it's a super-efficient play as well.  If all goes well and CHL is over $35 in Jan, 2023, then the profit on the spread will be $19,000 (542%).

We're going to call this a loss because CHL no longer trades in the US due to whatever BS our Government and China are going through.  We can't collect on the options (which are technically in the money) but we can't be assigned either as the brokers can't trade the stock so, unless the rules change again by next January, this is a $3,500 loss.  

Top Trades for Tue, 10 Nov 2020 11:50 – IBM

IBM/Ravi – From scratch I would go with:

  • Sell 5 IBM 2023 $100 puts for $20 ($10,000)
  • Buy 15 IBM 2023 $110 calls for $20 ($30,000)
  • Sell 15 IBM 2023 $135 calls for $10 ($15,000) 
  • Sell 5 IBM Jan $120 calls for $4 ($2,000) 

That's net $3,000 on the $37,500 spread so that's $34,500 (1,150%) upside potential at $135, which is not very far away.  The short calls can be rolled and I don't think IBM will explode and, of course, any time IBM doesn't gain a few % in a quarter, you lower your basis. 

Also nice that we're starting out $10,500 in the money so it's another Trade of the Year contender with that kind of leverage!

So, a month later IBM was still cheap so I made it a Top Trade again.  IBM finished the year at $123.87 so the short calls made all of 0.13 ($65) but a consistent selling strategy would have done you well this year on IBM, which is back to $125 now.  The $100 puts are $5.20 ($2,600) and the $110 ($19.50)/135 ($6.75) bull call spread is net $19,125 so net $16,590 is up $13,590 (453%) for the year but it's a $37,500 spread so I'd stick with it with $20,550 (123%) left to gain.

See – only one trade idea for all of November but it made 453% – quality over quantity!  

Top Trades for Wed, 02 Dec 2020 10:50 – T

Of course 45.8% wouldn't make it the Trade of the Year so we'd use a spread instead, probably 50 of the 2023 $27 ($3.75)/32 ($1.85) bull call spreads at net $1.90 ($9,500) against 20 of the short 2023 $27 puts ($8,000) for net $1,500 on the $25,000 spread that's 40% in the money to start.  No dividend but the upside at $32 is $23,500 (1,566%) and that's right in our Trade of the Year territory but I'm not sure VZ getting an upgrade is enough of a catalyst to make T a clear winner… yet. 

T has has a nasty sell-off since the spring and is back down to $25.37, where we love them as a new trade.  The 2023 $27 puts are now $4.60 ($9,200) and the $27 ($1.30)/32 (0.50) bull call spread is now net 0.80 ($4,000) so net -$5,200 is a $6,700 ( 466%) loss so far and NOT good for a new trade as the target of the bull call spread is too aggressive for a year.  

As a new spread, I'm fine with those short puts (or the 2024 $27 puts are $6 paired with the 2024 $23 ($3.75)/27 ($2.15) bull call spread at just net $1.60).  So, OFFICIALLY, we would roll this spread to that one and gain $2,800 on the put roll while spending $4,000 for the bull spread which would put us in the 2024 spread for a total of $3,700 with $16,300 (440%) upside potential.  Still, we'll call it a loss for now.

That's another thing I love about options, the ability to adjust and "roll out of trouble".  If a stock falls drasitcally on you, it's more difficult but that's another reason we like to stick to blue chips – they rarely fall more than 20% in any 6-month period and we have plenty of time to adjust.

Top Trades for Wed, 16 Dec 2020 12:45 – MO

MO dividend is a very fat 8.16% now at $3.44 per $42.87 share.  As a new trade, you can:

  • Buy 1,000 shares of MO for $42.87 ($42,870)
  • Sell 10 MO 2023 $35 puts for $4.50 ($4,500) 
  • Sell 10 MO 2023 $40 calls for $6.25 ($6,250)

That's net $32,120 and the spread pays back $40,000 if called away in two years with a $7,880 (24.5%) profit plus the $3,440 dividend x 2 is another $6,880 (21.4%) so a very nice way to tie up $32,120 to make $14,760 while we wait for MO to get into the hemp/cannabis space.  

Another one that looked better last week.  Despite taking a huge tumble, we're still over target and this was a stock play for dividends, not so much gains so anything over $40 is a complete win.  At the moment, the stock is $44,050 and the short puts are $2.60 ($2,600) and the short calls are $5.85 ($5,850) for net $35,600 and we've collected $3,480 in dividens so far (next one is due soon) so net net $39,080 is up $6,960 (21.6%) in our first year – a bit higher with the next dividend.  Again, these are very nice returns for very boring blue-chip stocks.  

Top Trades for Wed, 30 Dec 2020 12:23 – GILD

GILD is back where we like them and we cashed them out of the LTP so, for the LTP, let's get back in with:

  • Sell 5 GILD 2023 $50 puts for $8 ($4,000)
  • Buy 10 GILD 2023 $50 calls for $12.80 ($12,800)
  • Sell 10 GILD 2023 $65 calls for $6.75 ($6,750) 

That's net $2,050 on the $15,000 spread that's $7,000 in the money to start with an upside potential of $12,950 (631%) if GILD can power up to $65 over the next two years.  Worst-case is you own 500 shares at net $60.10 – because we sold aggressive short puts but, hopefully, GILD will go even lower and we can double down on this one.

We ended 2020 with a good one as we're already over target, even after the recent sell-off.  The short puts are now $3 ($1,500) and the $50 ($16.25)/65 ($6.75) bull call spread is net $9,50 ($9,500) for net $8,000, which is up $5,950 (290%) in year one but it's a $15,000 spread, so worth keeping.  

So we have 7 winners out of 9 selections and 7 wins and 2 losses might get you to the World Series but it's only 77.7% so it's going to bring down our average as the total for 2020's Top Trades is 43 wins and 4 losses for a 91.4% success rate.  Our Q4 trade ideas made net $77,100 so our total gains for the year for 2020 Top Trade Alerts was $668,627 – certainly worth the price of a subscription, right?

Go to your Subscription settings and make sure we have your mobile number if you want to be texted our Top Trade Alerts – your Email too!    

2021 is already drawing to a close and it will soon be time to review our Q1 Alerts there as well.  I know these seem like boring trades but, as you can see, they do add up to very nice returns and these are not generally risky stocks – that's why we make them our Top Trades!  

We've actually been very busy this Q, selecting BIG, XRX, BYD, GOLD, HPQ, PFE, SPWR, VIAC, COIN, PFE, RKT, IBM and INTC so far.  Why so many?  Because the market pulled back a bit and earnings put things on sale.  As I said, we make our Top Trade selections when the time is right – NOT because we arbitrarily promise one trade a week – that would be stupid!  

 


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  1. EDP for starters trading at 22.90 not 15.92!!!!


  2. sorry I see this was 1. Oct. my fault


  3. SPG/Phil Sorry to repeat as you replied already but as it's in a registered account and you can't sell puts or do spreads, still wondering if I should just buy back the short calls and then sell some more after? Otherwise assume shares will be called away at $110.

    500 SPG ($69)

    - 5 SPG '23 $110 calls

    Thx.


  4. Good Morning.









  5. Good morning!  

    Things are still going up.  Fed is meeting so rumors might change things but this market is pretty unstoppable, so far.

    SPG/Wing – You sold the $110 calls and the stock is at $158 – it's over.  You're going to get called away, just take the win.  The 2023 $110 calls are now $50 and the 2024 $150 calls are $25 so you can do a 2x roll to that and cover with more stock ($79,000) or 2024 $120 calls at $42.50 ($21,250) but all that buys you is $40 more headroom ($20,000) on your original $500 – just doesn't seem worth the hassle to me.  Find something to trade that hasn't blasted up already.  VIAC perhaps?  

    Baidu shares fall 4% as company plans for 'extraordinary' shareholders meeting

    OLB Group stock doubles after enabling bitcoin payments through Mastercard

    Ralph Lauren raises revenue outlook, maintains margin guidance given higher shipping costs

    Ryanair traffic nears to pre-pandemic level in October

    Shanghai Disneyland reopens tomorrow after massive Halloween quarantine

    National Retail Properties lifts 2021 guidance on high occupancy, collections

    Kia America sales down 7.2% in October

    Hyundai U.S. retail sales down 1% in October, eco-friendly vehicles +290%

    Groupon surges following new Google Pay distribution deal

    FuelCell Energy, Exxon extend joint carbon capture development deal

    CME reports 32% increase in October ADV

    Dell completes VMware spin-off

    Arconic raises full-year sales guidance but trims EBITDA outlook

    Nintendo is said to cut Switch production by 20% on chip shortage

    Bloomin' Brands slides after warning on inflation pressures

    Clorox is cut at JPMorgan on concerns that pantry loading trends will fade

    BofA clients bail on consumer stocks as they sell for fifth-straight week: At the Open

    Under Armour soars after smashing estimates, boosting guidance

    Pfizer more than doubles Q3 revenue thanks to COVID-19 vaccine sales

    Pfizer EPS beats by $0.25, beats on revenue, raises guidance

    Pfizer, Moderna investors watching vaccine sales outlook and production expectations

    Starbucks is defended at BofA with pricing power, China strength in the mix


  6. Yahoo pulls out of China for good


  7. Looking at BNTX  Buy Jan 24 BCS x4 @ 25.45 = 10,180.00 Sell 2x Jan24 51.10 = 10,220.00

    Any comments 



  8. Biden Cites ‘Overwhelming Obligations’ of U.S. on Climate


  9. yodi, What strike prices in 2024 ?


  10. Phil / VIAC – guess they have to find another buyer

    NEWS ALERT

     

    Justice Department Sues to Block Penguin Random House’s Acquisition of Simon & Schuster

    The Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit that seeks to block Penguin Random House’s proposed acquisition of rival publisher Simon & Schuster.

    The department, in a lawsuit filed in a Washington, D.C., federal court, alleged the deal would allow Penguin Random House to exert outsized influence over which books are published in the U.S. and how much authors are paid.

    READ MORE


  11. Thoughts on RIO?  Our call spread is way out of the money and the short puts are in the money.  Did I miss an adjustment?  As an aside, I am nervous about the broader China dynamics.  Have been reducing exposure in my long term equities holdings tied to this.  Have done a lot of business over there and this time seems different.


  12. Phil / PFE – Time to cover this one?   You had a partial cover on the on this in one of the portfolios   I think you said to cover at 45?


  13. Pfizer PFE shares extended gains Tuesday after the drugmaker said it could have doses of its developing COVID antiviral available before the end of the year. 

    Speaking to investors on a conference call that followed the group's stronger-than-expected third quarter earnings, Pfizer's Angela Hwang said production of the antiviral candidate, PF-07321332, which entered late-stage testing in September, could be ramped-up in early 2022 if it's ultimately approved by regulators. The pill is designed to be co-administered with Pfizer's existing HIV treatment ritonavir. 

    Hwang, group president at Pfizer Biopharma, said she sees a potential market for the oral treatment of up to 150 million people.


  14. BP/Phil Have 500sh BP from an old (PSW) trade .. would you sugg sell some puts and calls?

    Thx for SPG ideas .. like them ..  already have some VIAC  ;)


  15. BNTX/Yodi – Hard to say whether or not they are a one-trick pony but one trick is all they need as we'll be getting Covid vaccines every year, it looks like.  They are not wasting this opportunity and are developing 20 more vaccines with potential to launch over the next 5 years.  They are also working on cancer therapies – obviously huge money IF they can get a winner.   Overall, BNTX is as likely as MRNA to succeed over the long haul and MRNA has a $136Bn valuation on $20Bn in sales with $12Bn in profit while BNTX gets less respect with a $66Bn valuation, $16Bn in sales and $9Bn in profits.  Since their burn rate in 2019 was only $279M, their cash ($8.5Bn) with another $18Bn coming means they will be able to work on whatever they want for quite a long time.   

    So I think Yodi has found a worthwhile investment but, unfortunately, it's a pricey stock so it only fits in our LTP at $283.50.  In the LTP, let's:

    • Sell 5 BNTX 2024 $200 puts for $35 ($17,500) 
    • Buy 10 BNTX 2024 $300 calls at $80 ($80,000)
    • Sell 10 BNTX 2024 $400 calls at $54 ($54,000) 

    That's net $8,500 on the $100,000 spread so you have to love the upside potential of $91,500 (1,076%) but we're not in the money – it's a speculative bet that they do find something else to sell over the next 12 months, otherwise our investing premise is dead.  So let's remember to keep an eye on these and hopefully Pharm will have some color commentary on the subject when he checks in.  

    VIAC/Batman – LOL, Books?  Seriously they are worried about book monopolies?

    Google search accounts for two-thirds of Alphabet's top line.

    Not much reaction – I guess people knew that was coming.

    RIO/Mike – So our LTP play is:  

    RIO Long Call 2023 20-JAN 67.22 CALL [RIO @ $61.59 $-1.80] 15 5/25/2021 (444) $27,000 $18.00 $-14.05 $18.00     $3.95 $-0.75 $-21,075 -78.1% $5,925
    RIO Short Call 2023 20-JAN 87.22 CALL [RIO @ $61.59 $-1.80] -15 5/25/2021 (444) $-13,500 $9.00 $-7.78     $1.23 $-0.09 $11,663 86.4% $-1,838
    RIO Short Put 2023 20-JAN 67.22 PUT [RIO @ $61.59 $-1.80] -10 5/4/2021 (444) $-7,750 $7.75 $7.35     $15.10 $1.00 $-7,350 -94.8% $-15,100

     

    Other than the downturn in March, 2020, RIO has been a $40-$55 stock until one year ago, when copper went from $3 to $3.50 by Jan and $4 in March and $4.75 in June.  Copper is part of RIOs business but maybe about 10%, Iron Ore is 80% of the business and that generally chugged along in the $50-75 range but hit $100 in 2019, $125 in 2020 and was over $200 in June and now back to $125 but $125 is not $75 and $75 is not likely to happen again and we have huge infrastructure plans for the rest of the decade that will only keep it high.  

    RIO made $8-10Bn at $50-75 and made $10Bn in 2020 despite the virus and is on track to make $22Bn this year and project $14Bn next year yet you can buy the whole company for $100Bn so I still like them.  On the above spread, our adjustment will be to roll the 15 RIO 2023 $67.22 calls at $4 ($6,000) to 40 of the 2024 $60 ($9)/77.50 ($4) bull call spreads at $5 ($20,000) and we can sell 10 more 2024 $60 puts for $14 ($14,000) so we are spending net $0 to move to the $70,000 spread that's at the money after spending net $5,750 originally.  We still have $64,250 of upside potential and now we are obligated to buy 2,000 shares at about $65 as our worst case.  

    PFE/Batman – Sure but earnings were great and we don't think this move is lucky so there's no emergency and we'll cover it when we do our reviews.  

    BP/Wing – That's got to be super old as I'm not currently a fan.  They lost $20Bn last year so even if they make $10Bn this year and $10Bn next year, they are only even so I doubt they are spending what they need to for infrastructure and we know what happened last time they cheaped out well design (that was when we did buy them).  Certainly not before we see what these new climate talks look like should we be making oil bets.

    This is an industry that is making money by continuing to do something that is destroying the planet and will cost us tens of trillions of dollars to repair.  At some point, Big Oil will be sued like Big Tobacco and those profits will shrink considerably.  


  16. Thoughts on ISRG post split?


  17. Hi Phil,

    I know that we sold puts on Vale, but what is your thinking on a 2024 10/15 spread?  Vale has gotten cheaper since the put sale.  Doesn't the same thinking that applies to Rio, more or less apply to Vale?  Thanks.


  18. Phil/Rio can i rephrase what you said earlier. close the 15 long 67.22 2023 calls. book 40 new 2024 60/77.5bcs. close the 2023 short puts and book 60 2024 60 short puts. leave the 87.22 short calls to expire worthless? is that correct?


  19. ISRG/PMan – I used to love them but they got too expensive.  The split doesn't change their $126Bn valuation at $360 and they are only making about $2Bn a year with maybe 10% growth so 60x is a bit hard for me to swallow still.  This is a great company and, if they pulled back about 1/3, to the low $200s – I would be happy to make a play but this is kind of silly.

    VALE/John – VALE is 85% bulk materials and they will benefit from the same infrastructure as RIO.  VALE is a good value at $63Bn as they are making about $17Bn so the p/e is about 4 for them.  The stock is at $12.20 but the trend is NOT your friend as it's been downhill from $22 since July.  It's not your job to save them so I'd wait until there's a real bottom before adding a bull call spread.  So far it's been -$4, then weak bounce, -$4, then weak bounce.

    However, recently China has been cracking down on its domestic steel production for environmental reasons. China is the largest producer of steel, with nearly 50% of the global output, and 98% of iron is mined to produce steel. Because of the uncertainty brought to the market by this shakeup, the stock price of all iron miners has fallen substantially.

    Uncertainty is what they face at the moment but, long-term, we don't have a short-term replacement for iron and steel.

    RIO/Stuart – I'm pretty sure it was 10 2024 $60 puts, not 60.  Yes, leave the short calls to expire – seems super-doubtful they'll go in the money in 12 months but we could always roll, cover or DD on the longs (and sell more puts). 


  20. Phil,

    Any thoughts as to the weakness in EPD? Revenues were great, earnings – not so much. Given the numbers, tough to understand the stock's nosedive .. for me, at least.

    TIA


  21. Phil/rio yes my mistake 10 short puts thanks


  22. Covid infection followed by vaccination: someone, and I think it was here (or maybe on Facebook, or maybe on …..) was asking about vaccination if you've had covdi-19. Just saw a new study (and I think there've been others) showing that the vaccine boosts immune levels even above those who've been vaxed without having had the bug. Anyway, here's the link. It's out of Johns Hopkins, who generally know what they're doing. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2785919