Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

PhilStockWorld January Portfolio Review – Part 1

Image result for one million dollars animated gifImage result for one million dollars animated gif$2,518,702!  

That's up $309,256 since our last review for our paired Long-Term (LTP) and Short-Term (STP) Portfolios since our December 16th review, where we only made a few small changes.  That's because, at the time, we were down $64,619 from our Nov 18th review and we knew we'd bounce back but this month made up for it in spades and we're now up $1,918,702 (319%) from our $600,000 start back on Oct 1st, 2019.

A flat to down market is just what we've been playing for this fall and, now that we hit our 15,000 goal on the Nasdaq right on schedule (January expirations) we will now have to play a lot more balanced into earnings so we can gather more data.  

We reviewed our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) in yesterday morning's PSW Report and we have $800,000 worth of hedges against a 20% drop.  HOWEVER, we don't expect a 20% drop as we're already down 10% so call it $400,000 worth of protection against a 10% drop but, fortunately, our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) is sitting on $1,848,403 (78%) in CASH!!! – and that itself is a nice hedge against a drop.  So I THINK we are properly balanced at the moment but we're still going to take a very skeptical view of our current positions – looking to cash out anything we're not HAPPY to double down on if the market does drop another 20%.

After a busy late November, early December adding 19 bullish positions while things were on sale, we added just one new long (MRNA) to the LTP since our last Review.  With 40 long spreads and 22 short puts – we have more than enough to manage at the moment and, like I said, we'll be looking to cut more than add for now.  

Short Puts – This is how we usually initiate a trade in the LTP.  MRNA, in fact, started with the short puts and we just got more aggressive on them last week.  We have collected $208,390 selling short puts – essentially promises to buy stock if it falls below a certain price and, usually, we aim for at least a 20% discount to the current price.  If all goes well, we'll realize those gains over the next two years and, even if it doesn't – with positions like the Biotect ETF (LABU), we're more likely to add than bail out. 

  • Notice we sold the LABU 2023 $30 puts for $7 and LABU is now at $21.94 so we're down net $1.06 ($1,590) from our net $23 entry but our portfolio is showing a $10,650 loss at the moment.  Once you learn how the pricing works and then you learn PATIENCE (the hardest thing we have to teach our Members) – this becomes a very relaxing way to play the market.  

  • COIN – Also silly as we're in for net $155 and, at $223.40, we show a $4,800 loss.  Very likely we'll be adding to this one once we get comfortable that the sell-off is over.  

  • YETI – Another one as it's net $58 if we enter it and the stock is at $68.59 but the short puts show a $3,050 loss.  Love this as a new trade and we are likely to build on it, depending how earnings (2/17) goes.

  • TROX – On track, not worried.
  • CIM – A dividend play that's over our target so we are well-protected.

  • APO – Over target.
  • BABA – Worrying but I really think this is the bottom and we got really aggressive so we'll let it play through earnings (early Feb) at least.  

  • BIG – We bought it on the pullback so we are on track.  
  • BNTX – Unlike MRNA, BNTX is not exclusively an mRNA platform.  They are in a lawsuit that is dragging the stock down and it's down 50% since our last review so, if we are going to stay in, we need to adjust.  We're down about $27,000 and our asset is the 2024 $300 calls, which are still $29.60 ($29,600).  Let's roll those to 15 of the 2024 $150 calls at $67  ($100,500) and roll our 10 short 2024 $400 calls at $18.45 ($18,450) to 10 short March $200 calls at $11.25 ($11,250).  So we're spending net $78,100 but the short March calls are only using 58 of the 730 days we have to sell (and not even a full cover) so 10 more sales like that (580 days) would bring back $184,500 – not an unattractive position.  If it goes lower, we can sell more short-term calls and some puts to pay for the next roll and, if it goes higher – we can always roll the short calls back to a wider spread.  

  • BYD – Sports betting does seem popular and BYD is a good casino operator too.  The short $70 calls will expire worthless so let's sell 10 of the March $65s for $2.20 ($1,100) to keep the cash flowing in.  
  • CAKE – Very disappointing so far.  We'll have to wait for earnings (mid-Feb) to see what makes sense.  
  • CLF – Right on track.  

  • DAL – They just had earnings and guided for a profitable year despite Omnicron.
  • DOW – On track.
  • FB – Funny to invest in as I hate this company.  The short Jan calls are already worthless so let's sell 3 of the April $340 calls for $13 ($4,200) using 85 of our 366 days.  

  • GILD – Over our target already.  
  • GOLD – We're aggressively long here and OK so far.
  • HAL – Milles over target.
  • HBI – On track at net $1,100 on the $20,000 spread so it's $6,000 in the money and there's $18,900 (1,718%) left to gain if HBI can make it to $20 by the end of the year.  

  • HPQ – Way ahead of target and I'm waiting for them to announce a 3D house printer.  
  • IBM – Our Stock of the Year for 2022 – over target already.  

  • INTC – Our Stock of the Year from last year and already at target.  
  • KHC – On track.
  • LMT – Our Stock of the Century is already over target (these things are good to follow!).  

  • MO – On track
  • MRNA – Our only new trade and boy did we get killed on the calls but, fortunately, the short calls provided some balance.  We're not sure this is a bottom but we do want to keep them so we take advantage and roll the 20 2024 $200 calls at $54.88 to 20 of the 2024 $150 calls at $63 for net $8.12 ($16,240), which widens the spread by $100,000 and drops us $72,000 in the money.  If you're not willing to spend money to do that – then you shouldn't be in the trade!  

  • MU – Deep in the money already.  

  • PAA – We're in it for the dividend and the short Jan puts are expiring so let's sell 40 of the 2024 $10 puts for $2.10 ($8,400).  We don't need a stock to go up to make good money – flat is just fine using our system!

  • PFE – Already at our goal.
  • PHM – Also at our goal.
  • QSR – We're aggressively long ahead of earnings (2nd week of Feb).  I'm concerned Omnicron is having an impact but I love these guys long-term.

  • RIO – I could not believe how cheap they were.  Up more than 10% now and well over our modest target.  
  • SKT – We just cashed out our original longs and the 180 2024 $20s are just playing with house money.  Mostly we'll take advantage of selling shorter-term calls along the way, we already collected $24,000 against $54,000 using 1/2 the time with a 1/3 cover. 

  • SPWR – Our Stock of the Decade is off to a rocky start though we came in at $5, so we do not care at all.  On THIS trade, however, we are aggressively long and waiting for a nice pop to sell calls.  Earnings are around 2/20.  
  • T – Another stock that got stupidly cheap.  The Jan $33 calls will expire worthless (thanks for the $10,500!) and I don't like the prices of the April calls enough to sell them yet BUT that would be irresponsible so let's just sell 50 (1/4) of the April $28 calls for 0.95 ($4,750) as that's at least something towards rolling the long calls lower if 5G becomes a big problem in the rollout (airline issues).  

  • TD – These guys have exploded higher and we'll roll the short calls eventually.  
  • VALE – Another stock that was stupidly cheap and we were aggressively long.  I'm not inclined to sell short calls yet, we'll see how they handle $16.

  • VIAC – The short Jan calls will go worthless and I don't want to cover at the moment so nothing to dow but wait.
  • VTOL – I want my flying car!  Already at target. 
  • WPM – Kind of lackluster so far but we're making money anyway, so no worries.

  • X – Nicely on track already.  

Well, we could not find one thing to cut and I guess that's a good thing.  Not too much to adjust either – a nice, relaxing way to make money while we see how Q4 earnings go.

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!



Comments (reverse order)


    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!


  1. Good Morning!


  2. Good morning!  

    Here is the link to today's webinar

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5681688274128815374

    Bouncy today – we'll see how much:

    The Who – Meaty, Beaty, Big & Bouncy (1971, Vinyl) - Discogs

    Every day I get in the queue (Too much, Magic Bus)

    To get on the bus that takes me to you (Too much, Magic Bus)
    I'm so nervous, I just sit and smile (Too much, Magic Bus)
    You house is only another mile (Too much, Magic Bus)

    See, one of my favorite childhood songs had a valuation component!  cool


     


  3. Morning. CAKE – Phil, do you feel Omicron is a large part of why they are down or something else?


  4. CAKE/Jeddah – Not a stock I worry about.  The price is what it is with them at any given time but $36.80 is $1.9Bn and they make about $150M/yr with good growth when there's no pandemic so it's just a matter of sticking around and waiting for them to get back in favor.  

    That's an incredible statistic that pays off over time.  

    The Cheesecake Factory - Global Footprint

    15% of restaurants (competition) have closed – that's great for CAKE moving forward.

    We Believe Stable, Agile Brands Will Be

    Fox Restaurant Concepts (FRC) Expected to Serve as an

    Diversified Growth Engines Expected to

    Performance During COVID-19 Has Reinforced


  5. Oops, rally faltering already.  

       

     

    Not for gold:

     

    Ugh – DIE!!!!

        

  6. Nice!  Kicking the tires with '24 30/50 BCS, sold couple '23 $40 puts 


  7. Phil/BNTX and MRNA, i'm short 2024 200sp for both if them. MRNA at   25.45 and BNTX at 38.2. i didnt set up the bcs yet. so i'm a good position to do 150/250 in both cases. what do you think? TIA


  8. 5sp for each of them


  9. Phil / MRNA

    Would you suggest the $150-$250 MRNA spread for a fresh trade today? I missed getting into the $200-$250 spread last week.


  10. BNTX/Stuart, Jij - I'd wait for the chart to bottom out a bit, not much harm in missing the dead bottom and you can save yourself a roll.


  11. MSFT / ATVI – it is strange that ATVI is trading well below the announced merger price, seemingly indicating that there are major risks (regulatory). '23 BCS 80/95 is around $7, does it make sense to play? TIA


  12. ATVI/Hwt – If the deal does not go through, those can end up worthless.  Not just regulatory but MSFT may see something in the books they don't like and ATVI has had sexual harassment issues as well that are a potential landmine.  Clearly it's not a spread you would usually take so it's a straight-up bet that the deal goes forward at the announced price.  I think there are easier ways to double your money.   I would also point out that you can sell the 2024 $80 puts for $7.50 so that doubles your money if $80 simply holds and your worst case is a net $72.50 entry, rather than nothing.  If the deal does go through over $80 – you get paid early.  

    That kind of price AFTER a cash offer shows you there's a lot of doubt remaining as to whether this actually happens.


  13. Phil / ATVI – Thank you for looking into it and your advice


  14. ARKW -0.60%Jan. 19, 2022 11:36 AM ET6 Comments

    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) loses its top-weighted position inside of Cathie Wood’s ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKW). TSLA is now ARKW’s second-largest weighting at 7.45%. Wood, who has been notoriously bullish on TSLA, has made the decision to shift gears slightly and slide the EV maker down a notch.
    • ARKW’s new number one weighted holding is now Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN), weighted at 7.79%.
    • ARKW demonstrates its bullish view on the cryptocurrency world with COIN as its top holding and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC) as its third-largest holding at 6.48%.
    • ARKW currently finds itself -18.2% in 2022 and off 48.3% from its all-time trading high back on Feb. 12, 2021. Taking a deeper look at ARKW, investors will notice that the ETF is also sitting at a 16-month trading low and has experienced capital outflows YTD.
    • According to etfdb.com, the exchange traded fund has seen $192.94M exit the door in 2022.
    • Daily price action: ARKW -0.8%, TSLA -2.9%, COIN -1%, and GBTC +0.6%.
    • Moreover, Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) trades negatively again on Wednesday. It experienced a washout on Tuesday, with all 44 of its holdings closing to the downside, and ended the session at an 18-month trading low.

    STT -4.35%Jan. 19, 2022 11:33 AM ET

    • Shares of State Street (NYSE:STT) falls nearly 5% intra-day despite the asset manager's Q4 earnings and revenue topping the consensus estimates.
    • 2021 reflects a record year for fee revenue, Chairman and CEO Ron O'Hanley says. "As we look ahead in 2022, we remain focused on revenue growth, expense discipline and successfully closing and integrating our previously announced acquisition of BBH Investor Services," he adds.
    • Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $2.00 beats the $1.89 consensus is unchanged from the third-quarter.
    • Q3 total fee revenue of $2.51B rises from $2.50B in Q3 and $2.42B in the year-ago quarter, reflecting strong servicing and management fees, partially offset by lower foreign exchange trading services and software and processing fees.
    • Assets under custody/administration of $43.7T jump 13% in Q4, primarily due to higher market levels, client flows and net business growth.
    • Assets under management of $4.1T grows 19% in Q4, reflecting higher market levels and net inflows.
    • Still, Q3 net interest income of $484M slips from $487M in the previous period and $499M in Q4 2020.
    • Pre-tax margin of 23.9% in Q4 vs. 29.3% in Q3.
    • Q4 total expenses of $2.33B increase from $2.12B in Q3.
    • Earlier, State Street Global Advisors President and CEO said he'll retire in this year.

    SP500 -0.17%Jan. 19, 2022 11:05 AM ET17 Comments

    • The rebound in stocks faded quickly as financials reversed in a hurry and the megacap sectors pared gains.
    • The Nasdaq (COMP.IND) -0.2% went from first to worst among the major averages. Megacaps are mixed, with Microsoft in the lead and Tesla at the bottom.
    • The S&P (SP500) -0.1% is just lower, with seven out of 11 sectors higher and defensives in the lead. Consumer Staples is at the top and Consumer Discretionary is at the bottom along with Financials. The Dow (DJI) -0.1% is also just lower with Caterpillar's price drop weighing.
    • "The weakness in Financials is particularly interesting given the rise in rates – higher rates typically translate into greater profits at banks which benefit from lending money at an increased interest rate while continuing to pay a lower rate for deposits," Goldman Sachs says.
    • But "perhaps that you can get too much of a good thing," they add. "When higher rates are being driven by higher growth, then Financials likely should continue to rally. But if higher rates are being driven by either higher wage inflation or a perception that the Fed is going to raise rates regardless of the US growth trajectory, then even Financials may not react kindly."
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is now lower, off 2 basis points to 1.85%, having topped 1.9% earlier.
    • "There wasn’t a typical 'major' catalyst for the rise in yields on Tuesday," Kinsale Trading says. "Instead, there were smaller catalysts that combined with the building upward pressure on global bond yields."
    • Germany's 10-year bund yield moved into positive territory for the first time since May 2019. But it has since moved back, barely negative.
    • "One reason for this is that even while clinging on to the ‘transitory inflation’ story, the asset purchase programs (in the EU) have been scaled back considerably, the trajectory laid out suggesting an end of net asset purchases by the end of this year," ING economists write. "And this already impacts the near term cash flow picture for Bunds."
    • Before the bell, December housing starts came in stronger than expected.
    • Among active stocks, Take-Two is the biggest gainer in the S&P as speculation about video game M&A continues.
    • U.S. Bancorp is the weakest following misses on Q4.

    AAPL -1.23%Jan. 19, 2022 10:50 AM ET9 Comments

    • Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) App Store, the key to so much of the company's services business success, is continuing to show strong performance in revenue and app downloads, but its growth is also expected to slow slightly in the months ahead.
    • That's the opinion of Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan, who on Wednesday said that industry data from researcher Sensor Tower suggest Apple (AAPL) brought in $6.4 billion in App Store revenue during its 2022 fiscal first quarter, which covers the final three months of 2021. Mohan said those sales represent a 12% increase over the same period in 2020.
    • Mohan also said the data shows 8.2 billion App Store downloads during the quarter, up 5.5% on a year-over-year basis.
    • With regards to where App Store revenue coming from, Mohan said the United States accounted for 31% of such sales during the just-completed quarter. China came in second place, with 25% of App Store sales during the period.
    • Mohan said services, which trail only the iPhone in terms of Apple's (AAPL) sales, appear to have grown 22% in the company's first quarter. However, Mohan said services sales growth rates are likely to decline slightly through the first half of this year as services such as Apple TV+ and Fitness+ subscriptions "scales in user content and features."
    • Apple (AAPL) shares were down slightly in Wednesday's stock market session. The company's market cap is down by more than $200 billion since it became the first company ever to reach a $3 trillion valuation earlier this month.

    CL +2.18%Jan. 19, 2022 10:49 AM ET1 Comment

    • Procter & Gamble (PG +4.4%) trades higher after impressing investors and analysts with guidance that was reaffirmed despite the cost pressures with wages, freight and commodities. The expectation for organic sales growth of 4% to 6% is also being seen as a highlight.
    • Jefferies thinks the P&G results are strong enough to bring in more buyers
    • Morgan Stanley (Overweight, price target $161): "Ultimately, similar to last quarter, we see PG's results as likely to be better than household products peers in a very challenging cost environment, with PG increasing its full year cost/FX guidance headwind by ~400 bps to EPS, but maintaining FY EPS guidance with a 150 bp raise in organic sales guidance."
    • Wells Fargo (Overweight, price target $180): "PG remains a quality defensive name with top-line momentum giving flex to deliver on profit expectations despite an unpredictable cost environment, making the name unique in our view, especially in a volatile market tape. FQ222 high level—sales strength balanced by higher costs."
    • P&G is back to where it traded about two weeks before some earnings jitters chipped away at the share price. Peers Kimberly-Clark (KMB +1.5%) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL +1.7%) are also higher on the day.
    • Dig further into P&G earnings report.

    XOM -0.01%Jan. 19, 2022 10:49 AM ET21 Comments

    • The International Energy Agency, an agency created in 1974 to ensure the security of oil supplies, released its updated view of the oil market this morning – "If demand continues to grow strongly or supply disappoints, the low level of stocks and shrinking spare capacity mean that oil markets could be in for another volatile year in 2022."
    • As oil prices hit multi-year highs, it would seem the IEA is a bit behind the curve.
    • OECD stocks are back to 2014 levels; however, in 2014 oil demand sat at ~93mb/d, while the IEA is forecasting record oil demand in 2022 at 100mb/d.
    • The IEA pegs OPEC+ spare capacity at 5mb/d currently, even as the group fails to meet monthly production increases of 400kb/d.
    • Wrapping it all together, the IEA sees oil surpluses in Q1 2022 and going forward, a view shared by OPEC and the White House.
    • (NYSEARCA:USO) (NYSEARCA:XLE) (NYSE:XOM)
    • With oil prices at multi-year highs, and the oil futures curve in steep steep backwardation, either the physical oil market has it wrong, or the agency forecasters are incorrect.


  15. Phil/LABU – Haven't been following you on this one. What are your thoughts on decay? Thanks.



  16. Mondel?z International Releases Third Annual State of



  17. Hi Phil,

    Do you think that there will be a bidding war for ATVI if MSFT can navigate anti-trust? Or EA/TTWO will also be acquired shortly?

    Thanks





  18. LABU/Seer – Actually, I just looked up their holdings and I can see the problem already – they are mismanaging this thing.  It's 50% in cash and treasuries – WTF did these guys do?

    Top 10 Holdings (60.04% of Total Assets)

    Get Quotes for Top Holdings

    Name Symbol % Assets
    Dreyfus Government Secs Cash Mgmt Admin DAPXX 37.96%
    Goldman Sachs FS Treasury Intms Instl FTIXX 12.05%
    S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index Swap N/A 6.58%
    Intellia Therapeutics Inc NTLA 0.64%
    Editas Medicine Inc EDIT 0.51%
    Anavex Life Sciences Corp AVXL 0.50%
    Beam Therapeutics Inc BEAM 0.49%
    MannKind Corp MNKD 0.45%
    Ocugen Inc OCGN 0.43%
    Translate Bio Inc TBIO 0.43%

    It's possible they were forced to liquidate due to withdrawals and that then puts them in good shape for a rebound but it's disturbing to see they don't actually hold the stocks we would like to see in there at the moment.   I would call it a stay-away for now – unless you want to just take a flyer baaed on it being back to last year's lows.

    ATVI/Harip – Whenever one company is acquired people go nuts thinking the whole world is getting acquired.  ATVI was simply a good fit for cash-rich MSFT and their 35x valuation at this moment but, as soon as other companies start increasing in price – the value quickly disappears.  I don't think MSFT would have put the bid in if they hadn't already gotten a green-light from half of Congress.  

    EA is a better deal actually, "just" $38Bn with $2Bn in earnings but ATVI has the subscription business – that's what MSFT wants.  TTWO is $18Bn and makes $600M so worst of the bunch and not very interesting as an acquisition.  

    Webinar time!  (soon)


  19. Hi Phil,

    Thanks for your answers on EA/TTWO (which acquired zynga). What is your take on metaverse? Do you think it is viable in the near term (say next 2 years) and all of these players (MSFT/FB/RBLX/GOOG/bunch of chinese companies) benefit and hence they are acquiring assets?

    Thanks


  20. Not a good finish.

    Metaverse/Harip – We ended up discussing it extensively in the Webinar, hopefully you heard it.  Essentially, it's early innings and I'd rather bet on the concept than a specific company.  Stick with the big boys who generally benefit (Infrastructure, Economy and Interface and Immersion), rather than trying to figure out which of 100s of other companies survive.  

    Newzoo_Metaverse ecosystem diagram and infographic- the metaverse supply chain and infrastructure


  21. Wow. The RUT just hit its 1-year low