Macro Outlook Ahead of Trump Xi (9/23/2026)
Timeline
0:00 — Why the Dow and Russell are lagging the S&P and Nasdaq
2:15 — Asking Warren about narrow market leadership
9:49 — September PMI: growth vs. surging input prices
12:34 — Week recap: diesel, China meeting, Bitcoin, KeyCorp trade, Iran and oil
15:59 — Warren's take on the PMI: an "inflationary boom"
20:24 — COVID comparison: wages, consumer borrowing, K-shaped economy
25:17 — Tangent on restaurant prices
26:36 — Why demand is outrunning supply
29:11 — Bod's report: this year's winners and picks for next year
31:13 — Why we exited CEG in the Long-Term Portfolio
35:05 — Investment themes: AI infrastructure, power, select banks
35:54 — Bank earnings risk to kick off Q3 earnings season
37:03 — Defense spending and AI warfare
42:13 — Energy infrastructure and the midterm elections
44:11 — Macau travel play and Bod's top picks
45:21 — Why we hedge: July's 10% Nasdaq drop, the 5% Rule and RSI
50:31 — Valuations: 30x earnings and the 36% earnings growth assumption
53:04 — What could go wrong: inflation, AI, war, Congress, taxes
56:24 — The $80 trillion market and the liquidity illusion (art auction analogy)
59:43 — Nvidia volume and marginal sellers
1:03:49 — Meta's rally and AI shopping agents
1:13:31 — On Holding and the direct-to-consumer risk
1:18:22 — Fund flows: $90B out of equities in a month
1:22:21 — Trimming the Long-Term Portfolio from 70 positions
1:25:38 — Musical chairs chart and lessons from 2008
1:29:38 — 2009 bottom and "Getting Real with Global GDP"
1:34:42 — Must-hold levels: Nasdaq 25,000 and the 200-day moving average
1:36:34 — Oil and Brent after the tanker attack
1:38:02 — Goldman Sachs' rough couple of months
1:38:31 — Stocks vs. bonds: the earnings yield math
1:41:57 — Wrap-up
Transcript
Why the Dow and Russell Are Lagging
So who is bringing us down over the last 60 days?
