Posts Tagged ‘Copper’

Advanced Pattern Recognition: Omega III Weekly Wrap-Up

What a fine and predictable week it was!

How can you not have fun when the market does exactly what you expect it to do every day?  Why it’s almost as if we stole Goldman Sach’s evil playbook (and the Russell once again is at 666) so we too can make profits EVERY SINGLE TRADING DAY – just like they do!  This is a real testament to my famous saying:

We don’t care IF the game is rigged, as long as we know HOW it is rigged so we can place our bets accordingly.

Remember it was last summer that Goldman’s secret trading program was stolen.  At the time, Goldman Sachs asserted that: "There is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways."  I believe this was a misquote and what GS meant to say was that there was a danger someone ELSE could use it to manipulate the markets in unfair ways.  Was it just a coincidence that the indictment of computer thief Sergey Aleynikov on Feb 11th coincided with the beginning of this year’s massive rally or was that the day GS regained sole control of their pet program?

Does this sound conspiratorial?  Well perhaps then you haven’t read Tim Lavin’s "Monsters in the Markets," where he points out: "Algorithms now trigger 70 percent of all trades in U.S. equities. The speed and volume of everyday trading have propelled the market into a new and esoteric dimension, and rendered traders in the pits largely obsolete…  At least a few high-frequency traders have learned to make a killing by detecting the more simplistic algo strategies deployed by basic pension funds and mutual funds, buying the next stock the funds plan to buy, and then selling it to them at a higher price. This may not be illegal, but it’s almost certainly unfair to the funds’ investors. “It is increasingly clear that there are quite a number of high-frequency bandits in the high- frequency-trading community who pump up volume statistics, front-run investor orders, increase transaction costs, and hurt real liquidity,” according to former NASDAQ vice-chairman David Weild."

We certainly know better than to trust our money to fund managers!  Last Friday ("Pattern Recognition 101"), we determined that the TradeBots were following the rally pattern we now call Omega III and that meant we expected the day to finish
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Fast and Furious Four-Day Wrap-Up

Wheeeee, what a ride!

Like any good car race, the lead changes often in the markets.  Yesterday the bears took the lead as the combination of Hungarian debt issues and a disappointing jobs number were like a tire blow-out for the bulls, who were forced to pull in for a pit stop.  Fortunately, we had our seat belts on and had assumed the crash position as I had warned Members on THURSDAY Morning at 10:04:

Watch that 666 line on the RUT – we don’t want to lose that or even show weakness there…  ISM a bit disappointing, now we’ll see what holds but I’m out of short-term, unhedged, upside plays here

I felt strongly enough about it that we also posted it on Seeking Alpha, to warn as many people as possible, under the heading: "Phil Calls Short-Term Top."  I don’t post live trade ideas on Seeking Alpha but in Premium Member Chat (and you can subscribe here) I followed right up at 10:17 Thursday morning with the following trade idea:

BGZ (large-cap bear) is at $15.27 and I like them as a hedge here with the (June) $14/16 bull call spread at .75, selling the July $14 puts for .95 and that’s a net .20 credit on the $2 spread with about $2.70 in margin so you can do a 10 contract spread for a $200 credit and $2,700 in margin (according to TOS standard) with a $2K upside if the market even twitches lower.  Worst case is you own BGZ as a hedge to a dip below Dow 10,600 (your put-to area) at net $13.80 (9% lower than current price).

That’s what hedged trade ideas look like in our Member Chat.  At PSW, you need to put some time in LEARNING how to trade and, more importantly, how to hedge.  This is a fairly complicated options play but we take it BECAUSE IT WORKS!  There are many, many simpler ways to play that don’t work (or carry far more risk) but we prefer to teach our Members how to do the things that do work.  As it stands, just 48 hours later, BGZ is up 10% on Friday to $16.89 (so the spread is now 100% in the money) and June $14/16 bull call spread is now $1.50 while the July $14 puts are Down to .60 so net .90 already on the spread that already paid
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No-Thrills Thursday – Where’s the Kaboom?

Where’s the kaboom?  There’s supposed to be an Earth-shattering kaboom.

Well, it’s Thursday and the World hasn’t ended yet, contrary to the dire predictions we were getting last week and I guess that means you’d better buy some stocks!  We’ve been buying up a storm since falling below the bottom of our range with 50 long-term entries on our Buy List and another dozen longs in the first two days of this week including speculative longs (haven’t taken those for a while) on BP and RIG.  We even took two very bullish earnings plays on STP and JOYG – both of which were just way too low to ignore

JOYG was a complex spread from our 12:50 Alert to Members with a max profit at $55 but STP was a very simple, VERY bullish play where we bought the $9 calls for $1 and sold the $9 puts for .47, for a net .53 entry and no limit to our upside over $9.  Even if your margin requirement is 50% on the puts, you can pick up a single contract spread like this for $497 in buying power and your risk is being assigned the stock at net $9.53 but a move over $10 nets you a 10% gain in one day.  As long as you don’t mind owning the stock on a move down, these are fun earnings plays to make…

We didn’t expect to be getting bullish (and we are still well-hedged for the next fat-fingered fall) but at 12:27 on Tuesday, I posted the following chart for Members where I drew a line in the sand for the downturn:

Yesterday I noted in the Morning Post that we were completing that move down into the open so all we really did was follow-through with our plan to flip bullish for at least a bounce.  As we drifted along into the afternoon on a low volume move up, I re-examined the chart and decided it was a fine afternoon for a stick save and I drew this updated chart with the attached comment:

 

10,080 is the 0% line for the Dow and if I were Mr. Stick, I’d use that as my go point and jam the Dow up 100 from there, back to about 1,100 (on the S&P) so that’s the game(d) plan for the afternoon if we are getting back to the usual bullish shenanigans.  Which would


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Will We Hold It Wednesday?

Somehow we ended up bullish yesterday.

I already sent out a morning Alert to Members reiterating a buy on oil futures at $72 (already hit our first target at $72.50, which now becomes our stop line) and we took a longer-term bullish play on USO yesterday as oil came back down from $75.  We got out of our day-trades right at the top in the afternoon so that dip into the close became just another buying opportunity for us where things got so crazy that we actually bought OIH at $91.04 as that is just RIDICULOUS.  Of course we leveraged it with an option play for our Members but people ask for stock picks, so there’s one I like a whole lot!

We were looking for the sell-off as I had put up a chart of the major indexes for Members at 12:27 that indicated a down-trending channel and I predicted a re-test of last Wednesday’s lows "tomorrow," which is now today, of course and the indexes dove straight for our 1% line into the close so we will be thrilled if we just hold it together here and form a proper base to move up from.

That 1% line also happens to be the -5% line for the year to date so we expect at least a weak bounce off that level (which held nicely in early Feb) and is up 5% from last November’s sell-off.  The most disturbing things we need to watch is the incredible weakness of the NYSE, which is below it’s lows of last November and dangerously close to a major breakdown at 6,500.  That and copper below $3 are going to be our major indicators of BIG TROUBLE.  SOX 350 was a very disappointing loss yesterday and we need to hold the 200 DMA at 340 or we are DOOMED

So, other than that, we’re very enthusiastic about our prospects going forward – not so much because things are great over here but because things are so very, very scary everywhere else that US equities seem safe by comparison.   

Japan’s Prime Minister resigned last night after just 8 months in office and the Yen is actually lower now (91.9) than it was at 3am (91.6) blowing our "sure thing" play in Forex for the first time in ages. 

CDS rates are so out of control in Europe that they closed…
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Tumultuous Tuesday – Funds Tend to Short Ten-Year Treasuries

Societe Generale is out with the latest edition of their hedge fund watch and in it we see that they’ve found hedge funds to have the "shortest position EVER on bonds."

Well, ever is since 2005 but still, hedge funds now have more than 270,000 short contracts on the 10-year Treasury Bond and that’s not even counting PSW Members and their TBT positions (ultra-short the 20-year) so we are either twice as smart as hedge funds or twice as dumb – either way, it looks like it’s coming to a head!

SocGen also reports large short positions in 30-year TBills too with a net short there of about 100,000 contracts and the Bank concludes that funds are also "strong net sellers of the Yen (50K net short) and buyers of US Dollars."  Short positions in the Euro are being reduced now that we’re near my $1.30 target but this is a critical line for the Euro and we could still break 10% lower if it doesn’t hold, I mentioned our Euro play in the Weekend Wrap-Up so I won’t get into it here but what a day we had yesterday already! 

According to Market Folly, hedge funds are also now net sellers of equities with long/short equity funds are now around 25% net long, which is definitely below their historical average of 35-40% net long.  Folly also sees that, according to CFTC data, many hedgies have been adding to shorts in S&P futures. Whether they are simply selling longs to lock in some profit or making a market timing call, one thing is clear: hedge funds are definitely cautious in this market.  Following the funds has been profitable this year as they are up 13% year-to-date after the Hedge Fund Generals Index was up 69% last year.     

PSW members did their best to avoid temptation yesterday despite the "rally" (that failed to make it back to Thursday’s highs on low volume) and despite the "fabulous" auto numbers that CNBC et al could not stop fawning over.  Indeed the statistics were so good they were – RIDICULOUS – Chrysler up 25%, DIA up 18.8%, F up 24.7%, GM up 6.4%, HMC up 12.5%, Hyundai up 30%, Kia up 17.3% and TM up 24.4%.  This caused me to comment to Members:

OK, now I may be an old fuddy-duddy but I’m counting less than 1M cars sold in a month in this group and it seems to


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The Litany

The Litany

Side profile of a businessman sitting with his head in his hand

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Looks like it’s gonna be a tough one for stocks today.  Here’s a list of what you can expect to put pressure on the markets this morning…

1.  Germany and the UK are very much interested in the details of how a New York investment bank may or may not have ripped off their local banks.

2.  China (Shanghai Composite Index) sold off almost 5% on news that the government has told the banks to curb all loans for third home purchases.  In and of itself, not a big deal, but a reminder of the tightness to which that country’s rulers aspire.

3.  The Euro weakening against the dollar is a fairly obvious headwind for risk assets – especially commodities and stocks.

4.  Dr Copper, possibly the best leading indicator we’ve got these days, dropping 2.3% in London.  May crude contract down 2.4% this morning (81-ish).

5. Goldman’s ($GS) earnings conference call is coming up this week (April 20th), there is a hesitancy for any kind of dip buying until The Street gets a better sense of how big the debt derivatives business is for them.

6. The speed and degree to which all stocks and sectors sold off on Friday on news that was rather company-specific is indicative of a blustery Bull without strong underpinnings.

7. While we were celebrating the Intel ($INTC) quarterly earnings, we had gotten a handful of initial jobless claims and foreclosure stats that were overlooked.  These stats will now be circled back to – and they looked like Paula Abdul getting off an airplane with no makeup.

8.  Many savvy market participants are anticipating the next phase of the CDO fraud pile-on – who else did this, who’s next to be called out.  In addition, will state attorneys general be joining the fray?  And what will the impact on the financial industry be now that Finance Reform has become more a slam dunk to pass, politically speaking?

Good luck and be careful out there.

 


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Monday Market Mayhem – Is Goldman’s Goose Cooked?

Goldman, Goldman, Goldman

Did anything happen this weekend?  You sure wouldn’t know it from listening to the MSM, who have no other topic to discuss.  I was contacted by over a dozen media people asking me to comment on GS’s guilt or innocence (and, big hint for those of you who like to be quoted – don’t say "how the hell should I know") but, by far, the best analysis I read this week was Sam Antar’s analysis, where Sam says:

Goldman Sachs Makes Huge Error in After Market Response to SEC Lawsuit.  Rule 10b-5 prohibits public companies, their officers, and employees from making:

…any untrue statement of a material fact or to omit to state a material fact necessary in order to make the statements made, in the light of the circumstances under which they were made, not misleading, or to engage in any act, practice, or course of business which operates or would operate as a fraud or deceit upon any person….

The SEC claims that Goldman Sachs and Fabrice Tourre violated Rule 10b-5 by failing to disclose material information about Paulson’s role in selecting certain underlying mortgage securities and that Paulson was betting against the viability of those securities by taking a short position against them.

The Goldman Sachs press release starts out by saying:

…We are disappointed that the SEC would bring this action related to a single transaction in the face of an extensive record which establishes that the accusations are unfounded in law and fact.

At the very least, the SEC’s allegations are founded in law under Rule 10b-5, contrary to the company’s representation to investors in its press release. In addition, the press release misleads investors about the SEC complaint, too. Therefore, the Goldman Sachs press release may subject the company to additional Rule 10b-5 violations.

Oh what a tangled web we weave…  The bottom line is that the SEC is sending a message to the financial community that business as usual will not be tolerated going forward and I urge you to read through Sam’s entire post on the subject as it’s a very good overview of the legal issue GS faces.  The other big issue around GS is that the MSM seems to have a lot of trouble explaining what they did wrong.

Mostly they keep referring to a "defective car" model, comparing GS and Paulson to people who purposely sold…
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Monday Medical Miracle – Health Care Finally Passes

Paul Krugman summed it up nicely:

There is, as always, a tunnel at the end of the tunnel: We’ll spend years if not decades fixing this thing.

Love it or hate it, the US has just taken a big step towards nationalized health care so maybe now we can finally stop talking about it and move on with the investing!  I think medical devices (IHI) should do well with 32M new patients – that's a play we made quite a while ago though and, like pretty much everything else in this market – they look a little toppy. 

As I noted in the Weekend Wrap-Up, we came to the decision to get back to cash on Friday, removing all uncovered bullish bets and adding our disaster plays, no longer hedges (as there's not much to hedge) but as bets that the Global markets are due for a little correction at this point.  I'm already feeling good about the decision as the futures look awful this morning (8am) as the Hang Seng dropped 2% (437 points) and couldn't get back over 21,000 during the session and has now given up all of March's gains.  The Dow is still up about 400 points in March as well – hopefully our fall won't be as violent as what the Hang Seng saw this morning.  India held up well, only losing 1% after Friday's surprise rate increase. 

The Dollar was very strong after the Health Care vote and we're sitting below $1.50 to the Pound and we've bounced off $1.35 to the Euro twice this morning – a break below there could get very interesting!  The Yen is staying down at 90.5 to the Dollar, which is a relief for Japanese exporters but I'm not sure they'll hold 90 this week.  Copper broke below $3.40 on Friday – confirming our bearish turn and is at $3.32 this morning.  Gold once again is testing $1,100 and silver failed $17 at $16.82 with $16.50 being a bearish signal for metals.  Oil dropped all the way to $79.31 this morning and we'll see if they can get back over $80 but we are going to be thrilled with our short plays (see wrap-up) in that sector

Risk aversion has come up after developments in India and Greece,” said Henrik Gullberg, a fixed-income strategist at Deutsche Bank…
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Jobless Friday – US, Japan and Europe Add More Stimulus

Wheee – more free money!

The money train left the station just ahead of the US market close yesterday when the House passed a $15Bn Jobs Bill although it remains to be seen if Jim Bunning will pass it.  China doesn't need Bunning's permission to hand out free money and they will be "allocating 63.2 Billion Yuan" to fight high housing prices by SUBSIDIZING low-cost housing.  Come to think of it – I object to that!  Someone in China needs a lesson in some basic economics

The big boost this morning came from Japan, where bonds hit the highest level of the year after the Nikkei newspaper said the central bank at its March 16 meeting may discuss additional monetary easing steps.  It doesn't matter whether this report is true or not as it already did it's job and shot the Nikkei up 223 points for the day, erasing two week's worth of losses in a single session.  It's hard for the BOJ to get easier than our own Fed but Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday he needs evidence of “highly sustainable” growth before supporting tighter monetary policy, while James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed said the central bank should remain “accommodative” – these are, of course, the Fed's code words for MORE FREE MONEY! 

Of course, our Futures are up 1% from yesterday's low and the commodity markets LOVE IT and oil is back at $80.65 with copper back at $3.40 despite "weak" demand in China, where stockpiles of copper are now at 7-year highs and even Goldman Sachs has withdrawn their buy recommendation on coppper because of concern that economic recovery in developed markets isn’t on “solid footing.”  “About 60 percent of China's copper is used in the power industry, and our sales to wire-and-cable users reflected that demand is rather weak,” Chairman Wei Jianghong said, while attending the National People’s Congress.

  

The demand is not very strong in the first place,” Jiangxi Copper Chairman Li said in Beijing while at the congress. “But a lot of people have long positions in the market, so I think in the first half of this year, copper prices will be good.”  Copper stockpiles in China jumped to 149,478 tons for the week ended Feb. 26, 28 percent more than the week ended Feb. 12, according to the Shanghai Futures Exchange.  Demand from China…
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Fifty Basis Point Friday – China Puts First Pin in the Bubble

Thank you China! 

I had put out a post last night detailing how we ended up short at yesterday's close and at 3:21, when I published it as I was checking the Asian markets (don't ask, I keep strange hours) it looked like I had called it wrong as the Hang Seng went into lunch up over half a point and commodities were still hanging tough after yesterday's ridiculous run up.  In fact, at 12:07, in Member Chat, I just so happened to say: "Copper $3.13 – ridiculous…  Very annoying movement, not very playable like this as it can all crash back down again very fast."

Fortunately, we let our levels be our guide and cashed out our long DIA day trades in my 1:41 Alert to Members as we hit our Dow 10,165 target from the morning post.  We flipped bearish to the DIA $100 puts at .62, which should have a nice open this morning.   We had an FCX short play with the $70 puts that I couldn't bring myself to let go of, even after they broke over our $72.50 stop line and my 1:50 comment on that position was: "I’m in a 4x position at avg. $1.16, now .71 so not good but I think copper run was BS so I’m willing to stick it out but very happy just to get even now.  I think a big squeeze was put on commodity bears today with no energy reports to point out the demand destruction.   Copper up from $2.93 yesterday to $3.13 today after taking two weeks to fall that far on the way down – that is nonsense!   If I were not full I would roll up or DD but, as I said, I’ll just be happy to get back out and, if not by tomorrow, I’ll sell some other sucker my puts and roll to March." 

Needless to say, despite having a rolling plan to turn the trade into a spread, I was not a happy camper as things held up into the close and then, through lunch in Asia and into Europe's open.  My closing comment to Members at 3:44 had been: "I’m still generally suspicious that we’ve had such a strong day on very low volume (Dow 136M at 3:40) when there was a storm.  An amazing coincidence if nothing else…. 
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Phil's Favorites

Trump Tweeting As Much As Ever Amid Twitter Standoff

 

Trump Tweeting As Much As Ever Amid Twitter Standoff

By , Statista

President Trump has signed an executive order which aims to remove some of the legal protection given to social media companies, though it is expected to face significant legal hurdles. In a nutshell, it sets out to clarify the Communications Decency Act, handing regulators the power to file legal proceedings against social media companies for the way they police content on their platforms. Trump's decision to take action comes two days after Twitter attached a fact check to one of his tweets lambasting mail-in voting. He then threatened to close ...



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ValueWalk

Gold supply chain in recovery mode after pandemic shutdown

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The gold supply chain was largely shut down as the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world. However, things are starting to open back up, and production is beginning again. The World Gold Council studied the gold supply chain, how it was impacted by the pandemic, and how the disruption of the supply chain has affected investment demand for the yellow metal.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Disruption to the gold supply chain

The World Gold Council said the gold supply chain is entirely global because the metal is mined on evert continent except Antarctica and refined in nume...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy - and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

 

Antigen tests for COVID-19 are fast and easy – and could solve the coronavirus testing problem despite being somewhat inaccurate

Antibodies are incredibly good at finding the coronavirus. Antigen tests put them to work. Sergii Iaremenko/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

Courtesy of Eugene Wu, University of Richmond

In late February, I fell ill with a fever and a cough. As a biochemist who teaches a class on viruses, I’d been tracking the outbreak of...



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Zero Hedge

Ted Cruz Accuses Twitter Of Violating Sanctions Against Iran, Demands DoJ Probe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

We've mentioned in nearly every single one of our posts about this week's dustup between the president and Twitter that the Ayato...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tech Indicator Suggesting A Historic Top Could Be Forming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech stocks have been the clear leader of the stock market recovery rally, this year and since the lows back in 2007!

But within the ranks of leadership, and an important ratio may be sending a caution message to investors.

In today’s chart, we look at the ratio of large-cap tech stocks (the Nasdaq 100 Index) to the broader tech market (the Nasdaq Composite) on a “monthly” basis.

The large-cap concentrated Nasdaq 100 (only 100 stocks) has been the clear leader for several years versus the ...



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The Technical Traders

M2 Velocity Collapses - Could A Bottom In Capital Velocity Be Setting Up?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

M2 Velocity is the measurement of capital circulating within the economy.  The faster capital circulates within the economy, the more that capital is being deployed within the economy to create output and opportunities for economic growth.  When M2 Velocity contracts, capital is being deployed in investments or assets that prevent that capital from further circulation within the economy – thus preventing further output and opportunity growth features.

The decline in M2 Velocity over the past 10+ years has been dramatic and consistent with the dramatic new zero US Federal Reserve interest rates initiated since just after the 2008 credit crisis market colla...



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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Chart School

Is this your local response to COVID 19

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!


This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.








This is the song for post lock down!







What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show



...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.