Posts Tagged ‘DIG’

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since then, oil has hit a multi-year low at around $42.50 and is now approaching $60, still well below its highs of 2014 but probably closer to a breakeven price for American shale producers. In this post I want to see what ETF would have profited best from that rebound and also which one would have fared worse. Let's look at a couple of performance charts. First, the standard oil proxies based on the futures:

Oil (red) is up 40% since March 17 but what is interesting is how the pure oil ETFs are tracking that move. USO (blue) which is not leveraged is not tracking very well. In fact, it's up only about 27% or about 2/3 of the oil move. As expected, SCO (pink) is down, but clearly, the leveraging is not the 2x that you would expect as it's only down a bit less than 40%. And UCO (green), while the clear winner here, is only up 57% which is lower than the advertised 2x leverage factor. Once again, these future based ETF are victims of some decay.

Let's look at some ETFs not based on oil futures but who should benefit from an oil price rebound. In the next performance chart, we'll look at OIH and XLE. 

It's not surprising that there should be a lag between the time oil prices start…
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Q2 Buy List – Rounding Out The Top 20 (Members Only)

Finally a chance to buy again! 

The problem with hitting the dead bottom with our June 7th Buy List is there haven't been any good entry opportunities since for new Members.  Now we are back down to about the bottom of the "flash crash" (S&P 1,065) and it does look like we may be forming another bottom. right about where we were when I wrote on June 6th "The Worst-Case Scenario:  Getting Real With Global GDP!" where I pointed out:  Things are just simply not bad enough to sit on our hands with a big pile of cash

I am still not advocating going over a 25% commitment to long-term positions so PLEASE - keep that in mind at all times - our buying premise is that we have cash (with a target of staying at least 75% cash right now) and we will need more disaster hedges if we can't hold this week's lows.  If we have a 2% hedge in place now that pays 10% on a market drop of no more than 20% below where we are now, then we can expect to have 10% of our money from that hedge to pay for any stocks that are put to us and, if we are only allocating 20-25% of our cash to buy round 1 here, then logically, that extra 2% we're putting up as insurance will pay for half of an unexpected drop.  If we get less confident in holding our levels, then we can up our hedges.

That means, if we spent $25,000 to buy round 1 of stocks and $5,000 of insurance that pays 500% if we hit our assignment area (down 20%) and we are assigned a basked to stocks, which force us to double down, then the $25,000 we need to double down with will come from our insurance hedge and that means we'll be in 2x the stock for $30,000 with $75,000 more cash on the side (assuming it was a $100K Virtual Portfolio). 

Let's keep this example dead simple and say we buy the SPY for $106.82 and let's say we buy 300 shares for $32,000.  Now we cover that with the sale of the March $103 calls for $12 and the $95 puts for $6 and that nets out to $88.82 ($26,346) and our upside at $103 is $14.18 ($4,254 or 13%).  We are committed to owning 600 shares of SPY at the $88.82 we paid
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Monday Monetary Meltdown – Sill the EwRo!

Oh what a World, what a World

It's funny how much damage a splash of cold water can do, isn't it?  Especially when that splash of cold water is reality and the witch is fiat currency.  You are very, very lucky because I do not have to rant on about this for 2 pages here because I already told people this was going to happen in March of 2007, when I warned that rising oil prices were indicating a serious issue with fiat currencies and would eventually undo our then-indestructible rally.  The title of that post was "Are We Heading for an Economic Tornado?

The Dow was just above 12,000 at the time but, to an old fundamentalist like me, it seemed a little pricey and my dire warning at the end of the article sounds more like a recap of the last 3 years now when I said:

If we manage to topple the entire house of cards that is commodity pricing, perhaps we won’t need sub-prime mortgages to buy ourselves affordable housing at realistic interest rates.  There is certainly a storm brewing as a vacuum of money has been left in our heartland as the Broker/Commodity/Financial triumvirate has funneled $6T away from you and the things you enjoy (consumer goods) to force you to spend it to maintain the things you need (cars, tractors, appliances).  They’ve created a storm that threatens to tear the global economy apart.

As I've said many times, I don't have the power to fix things (but, if appointed dictator for life, I will serve) – I can only tell you what's going to happen and how to profit from it.  At the time we were buyers of gold, looking to ward off a probable slide in the dollar and what looked like inevitable inflation.  Now we are sellers of gold because, in this post-crash Gobal economy – who can afford it?  Sure speculators can afford it but just like houses or oil (or tulips for that matter) – eventually they have to find a real buyer.  Did you know gold demand is plunging in Asia?  What?   They didn't tell you that in any of the 100 TV commercials?  I am shocked… 

Actually, I can tell you the easiest way to time the gold market – count the number of commercials from people who want to buy your gold vs the…
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Pick: Ultra Proshares Oil and Gas ETF (DIG)

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Pick: Ultra Proshares Oil and Gas ETF (DIG)

Courtesy of David at the Oxen Group 

DIG - Oxen TradeThe Oxen Group, for Thursday, is optimistic to hope for a good day from the market. Too many red days even in a bearish trend, means a correction every few days. Tomorrow, futures are already up as investors may be getting excited about jobless claims, which have been bullish for the past few weeks. Additionally, Research in Motion will be releasing earnings that are expected to be very positive for the tech sector and TARP paybacks were successful.

The market is due for a fundamental correction, as there are some bargains presenting themselves again. One of these is oil, oil service companies, and oil ETFs. After oil prices have slipped, with a late small gain today, oil may be ready for a move on Thursday. Gasoline wholesale prices have continued to slip, which is signalling a pullback in gas prices. Further, oil may get a boost from a very bullish Chinese inventory announcement that shows the Chinese economy is pumping again, helping to increase oil prices in the Asian market. We like Ultra Proshares Oil &Gas (DIG) to rally, with major holdings in Exxon and Chevron, which have both been hit with losses for the past four days. DIG has lost 13% in the past four days and moved down too quickly, presenting an opportunity for money to pour into the stock. If jobless claims are bullish and gas prices rescind, investors will push this stock up as inventories really did not get a chance to increase the oil market, which was a bullish indicator. Oil looks ready to rise, therefore, BUY DIG!

Entry: Recommend buying within first 10-25 minutes.
Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.
Upper Resistance: 30.50

David’s Oxen Trade Results:

Date  


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Zero Hedge

University Of Georgia Suggests "Wearing A Face Mask" During Sex

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Just when you thought all universities were good for was churning out uninformed Marxists, the University of Georgia breaks that stigma by offering up some groundbreaking sexual health advice in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. 

The University had written a section called "Covid-19 Considerations" on its University Health Center website several days ago, but the document was pulled down after the university was subjected to ridicule for its content, which actually suggested "wearing a face mask during sex."

...

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Phil's Favorites

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

 

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

Kamala Harris, a U.S. senator from California, endorsed Joe Biden for president in March. Now she is his vice presidential nominee. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sharon Austin, University of Florida

U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, the ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

 

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

The Fed can create all the money Uncle Sam needs. GeorgePeters/Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

French philosopher Voltaire famously quipped: “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” Something similar can be said of modern monetary theory, also known as MMT, because it may be the economy’s only hope to get through the pandemic.

Coined by Australia...



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ValueWalk

Bonhoeffer Fund 2Q20 Commentary - Case Study: Antero Midstream

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bonhoeffer Fund commentary for the second quarter ended July 2020, providing a case study on Antero Midstream Corp (NYSE:AM).

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Dear Partner,

The Bonhoeffer Fund returned 21.7% net of fees in the second quarter of 2020. Given the unique portfolio Bonhoeffer manages, I have struggled to find an appropriate benchmark but have determined that the DFA International Small Cap Value Fund offers the closest representative comparison to Bonhoeffer....



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Bear Market Resistance Kiss In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is ole Doc Copper about to ends its 9-year bear market? I suspect we will find out the answer to the question very soon!

Doc Copper has created a series of higher lows inside the falling channel (1) since it peaked back in 2011.

The rally from the lows in March of this year, has Doc Copper testing the top of its falling channel as well as a support/resistance price zone at (2).

With Doc Copper still in a bear market (lower highs for 9-years), this price test comes into play as important resistance at (2).

If Doc Copper breaks out at (2), it would send...



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The Technical Traders

Gap Fills Suggest Market Momentum May Stall

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Technical Analysis teaches us that price Gaps tend to be filled by future price action.  This is not something new for many of our readers, whom may be familiar with our mantra ‘Gaps always get filled!’.  The big Gap created near February 24, 2020, the start of the COVID-19 market collapse, has recently been filled in the SPY and the TRAN (Transportation Index).  We believe this “filling of the Gap” may be a sign that the upside market trend may begin to stall and potentially reverse. 

Yesterday, we highlighted the potential for a continued upside bullish trend in the SPY pushing possibly 2% to 4% higher based on our Measured Move technique in our articl...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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