Posts Tagged ‘Payrolls’

Factory Orders Fall More Than Expected; Recovery Withers on the Vine

Factory Orders Fall More Than Expected; Recovery Withers on the Vine

Courtesy of Mish 

The "nascent recovery" was led by manufacturing and now the one bright spot is showing signs of age, just as state payrolls are about to get clobbered.

Please consider Orders to U.S. Factories Declined in May More Than Forecast.

Orders placed with U.S. factories declined in May more than forecast, a sign that manufacturing may be starting to cool.

The 1.4 percent decrease in bookings was the biggest since March 2009 and followed a revised 1 percent gain in April, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Economists forecast orders would drop 0.5 percent, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey.

Estimates of total orders in the Bloomberg survey of 70 economists ranged from a decline of 2 percent to a gain of 1.5 percent. The decrease in May was the first in nine months.

Manufacturing in June expanded at the slowest pace this year as factories received fewer orders and demand from abroad slowed, a report showed yesterday. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell to 56.2 from 59.7 a month earlier. Readings greater than 50 indicate expansion. The Tempe, Arizona- based group’s new orders measure fell to the lowest level since October.

Demand for durable goods, which make up just over half of total factory demand, decreased 0.6 percent in May. Shipments of durable goods fell 0.3 percent.

Bookings of non-durable goods, including food, petroleum and chemicals, decreased 2.1 percent. The decline reflected a drop in the value of orders for petroleum products, clothing, fertilizers and beverages.

Orders for capital goods excluding aircraft and military equipment, a measure of future business investment, increased 3.9 percent after a 2.8 percent drop in April. Shipments of these goods, used in calculating gross domestic product, rose 1.4 percent after rising 0.4 percent.

Factory inventories declined 0.4 percent in May, and manufacturers had enough goods on hand to last 1.25 months at the current sales pace.

Recovery Withers on the Vine

You should not have to be a genius to figure out the rebound in manufacturing was a result of four factors now withering on the vine.

  • Inventory replenishment
  • Unsustainable stimulus
  • Housing incentives pushing demand forward on appliances
  • Rebound in auto sales from extremely depressed levels

Is Europe going to lead the world recovery? China? US Consumers?


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Schwarzenegger’s Budget Addresses Few Structural Issues

Schwarzenegger’s Budget Addresses Few Structural Issues

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger proposes his $83.4 billion state budget plan in Sacramento.

Courtesy of Mish 

Tonight, with much fanfare, Schwarzenegger released his proposal to fix California’s $19 billion budget deficit. It was a huge disappointment.

Schwarzenegger had a golden opportunity to propose radical changes like privatizing the prison system, privatizing work in general, sending illegal aliens home, or getting rid of defined benefit plans. Instead, Schwarzenegger wimped out on many key issues.

Budget at a Glance

Please consider some highlights from Schwarzenegger’s revised state budget at a glance

Close the $19.1 Billion Deficit Through:

  • $12.4 billion in spending cuts.
  • $3.4 billion in federal money.
  • $3.3 billion in other measures, primarily through borrowing from other state funds.

Spending Cuts Breakdown

  • $1.1 billion through the elimination of CalWORKS, the state’s primary welfare program, which serves 1.4 million people, two-thirds of them children.
  • $750 million in unspecified cuts to the state’s in-home supportive services program for the disabled, achieved through reductions in wages and services.
  • Cuts $532 million from Medi-Cal, the state’s medical program for the poor, by reducing eligibility, limiting doctor’s visits to 10 per year, reducing funding for hearing aids and other medical equipment, and increasing copays.
  • $811 million reduction in prison health care expenses by making the system more efficient and reducing funding.
  • About $360 million in savings by shifting nonviolent offenders out of state prisons and into county jails and by reducing the juvenile prison population and closing the facilities that house them.

State Employees

  • Payroll reductions of 5 percent across all state departments, except for constitutional offices, which already achieved 5 percent reductions. The administration says much of the payroll reduction can be achieved by departments not filling current vacancies.
  • A 5 percent pay cut for all state workers and a 5 percent increase in their pension contributions. The administration says this will save $1.6 billion.

Media Reporting

As soon as Schwarzenegger released the budget, the media was all over it. The LA Times headline says it all: Schwarzenegger’s budget deals blows to the poor.

Proposing a budget that would eliminate the state’s welfare-to-work program and most child care for the poor, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Friday outlined a stark vision of a California that would sharply limit aid to some of its poorest and neediest citizens.

His $83.4-billion plan would also freeze funding for local schools, further cut state


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ADP: Department of Records Revision

Click here to sign up for a free subscription to the PSW Report.  It’s easy!  – Ilene 

ADP: Department of Records Revision

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

"April’s reading was revised to show a reduction of 545,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 491,000."

Is an 11% month over month change in an employment number a revision or a rewrite?

The ADP report is supposed to be based on actual reports from private industry.

This pervasive pattern of ‘good numbers’ that result in stock market rallies and the massaging of public opinion, only to be replaced by downward revisions thirty days later, with little notice or quote, is cynical manipulation of the media at best, and a dangerous slide into social engineering by an increasing distortion of ‘reality’ at worst.

If you have not read the novel or seen the movie lately, 1984 is worth a look.

Bloomberg
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Cut Payrolls by 532,000
By Courtney Schlisserman

June 3 (Bloomberg) — Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 532,000 workers from payrolls in May as the labor market showed little sign of improving even as the recession abated, a private report showed today.

The drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge was bigger than economists forecast. April’s reading was revised to show a reduction of 545,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 491,000.

Companies from General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC to American Express Co. continue to cut jobs to control costs even as the economy shows signs of stabilizing. Mounting unemployment will restrain consumer spending, muting any recovery.

“Still losing over half a million jobs a month is hard to get excited about,” Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto, said in a note to clients. “Steep job losses still signal a deeply troubled economy.”

…Economists forecast the ADP report would show a decline of 525,000 jobs, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from decreases of 425,000 to 580,000.

Economists’ Forecasts

A government report on June 5 may show payrolls at companies and government agencies shrank by 520,000 in May and unemployment rose to a 25-year high of 9.2 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Job-cut announcements last month showed the smallest increase in more than a year, Chicago-based placement firm Challenger,


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Phil's Favorites

Honda closure: Brexit is tipping the UK's car industry over the edge

 

Honda closure: Brexit is tipping the UK's car industry over the edge

Pajor Pawel / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jim Saker, Loughborough University

Britain’s car industry has faced a barrage of bad news in 2019. Honda is the latest casualty, announcing it will close its Swindon car plant, which employs 3,500 people, in 2021. It follows ...



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Zero Hedge

Not So Fast: China Will Not Allow Use Of Yuan As Bargaining Chip To Resolve Trade War

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With market optimism brimming that it's just a matter of days, if not hours, before the US and China reach a truce in the ongoing trade war - even though there have been countless accurate analyses in recent weeks explaining why an actual trade deal is impossible since the object of contention is not trade at all but China's creeping technological dominance, something which Beijing will never voluntarily concede - Beijing has poured cold water over expectations of an imminent deal when China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Wednesday that Chi...



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ValueWalk

It's Your Lucky Day - Whitney Tilson Has A Job Offer And A New Stock Idea

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing him hiring an analyst; his Stock Idea of the Day: Thor Industries; Tesla; KIPP Casino Night.

1) A final reminder that I’m looking to hire an analyst, based in Baltimore, for my new investment newsletter business, Empire Financial Research. The ideal candidate will have a passion for investing, a nose for cheap stocks and great writing skills. One of the analyst’s jobs will be helping me put together daily emails like this one, whic...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Are Bank Stocks Ready to Right-Side the Bull Market?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The bank sector is a good indicator of the health of the broader stock market.

Bulls like to see the banks in a leadership role because it indicates that the economy is doing well. But when they begin to lose momentum and underperform, it often leads to pullbacks and corrections.

As you can see in today’s chart, the Bank Index (BKX) began to stumble well before the recent correction. And that bearish divergence was a warning to market bulls – similar to the 2015-2016 setup.

On the other hand, the recent rally has given bulls an opportunity to right-side th...



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Insider Scoop

3 Texas Roadhouse Analysts Agree: Wait For A Better Entry Point In Stock

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related TXRH Texas Roadhouse's Q4 Earnings Preview Earnings Scheduled For February 19, 2019 ...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



Date Found: Sunday, 05 August 2018, 09:22:26 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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