The U.S. government’s auto trade- in program probably lifted retail sales in August to their biggest gain in more than three years and boosted factory output, economists said before reports this week.
Total purchases climbed 1.9 percent, the most since January 2006, according to the median of 60 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures due Sept. 15. The Obama administration’s “cash for clunkers” plan also helped industrial production in August to its first back- to-back monthly increase since 2007, economists said.
Americans flocked to auto showrooms last month to take advantage of the incentive program while purchases of other items were subdued even as evidence mounts that the worst recession since the Great Depression is ending. With unemployment forecast to reach 10 percent by the end of the year, consumer spending likely won’t lead the recovery.
Cars and light trucks sold at a 14.1 million annual pace last month, up 25 percent from July, according to industry figures. It was the biggest gain since October 2001.
Last month General Motors Co. called back 1,350 union workers, its biggest one-time increase in jobs since 2006, as it ramped up second-half production in part to meet demand linked to the government trade-in program.
The Fed’s measure of production, due Sept. 16, probably rose 0.6 percent, the most since October, according to the survey. The report may also show the proportion of plant capacity in use in the U.S. climbed to 69.1 percent, the highest in five months.
Manufacturing in the New York region posted its first back-to-back monthly expansion since January 2008, economists said before a report due Sept. 15. The New York Fed’s general economic index likely climbed to 15 this month from 12.1 in August, according to the survey.
The housing market also is showing early signs of a rebound. A Commerce Department report due Sept. 17 will show builders broke ground on 600,000 new homes last month at an annual rate, a 3.3 percent gain and the fastest pace since November, according to the survey median.
The world’s largest economy contracted 1 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said last month, the fourth
Temporary Rebound In Consumer Sales Coming Up
by ilene - September 13th, 2009 6:04 am
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Temporary Rebound In Consumer Sales Coming Up
Economists now estimate ‘Clunkers’ Probably Boosted Retail Sales.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
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