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Feast or Famine Friday

SnoopythanksgivingI don't know about you but I'm stuffed.

Not just from Thanksgiving indulgences – it's been a wonderful year in the markets and we have much to be thankful for.  It should be remembered that Thanksgiving is one of many harvest festivals celebrated around the world and it may be a good time to think about harvesting some cash from our stock virtual portfolios if it looks like we're heading into a long, cold winter in the markets.

Now this is interesting because I said "if" and, since I started writing this article last night, we already have some member comments treating it as IF I said WHEN it looks like we're heading into a long, cold winter!  What happened to Santa Clause and his famous rally?  How quickly we all lose faith?  I don't know IF the markets will turn back or not, I just want us to be mentally prepared for the not but I stick by my pre-Thanksgiving assertion that we were being flushed out of the markets ahead of a "black Friday" that may see a lot more green than our low expectaions are allowing.

It's not simply because the markets dropped that I think we will bounce, it's the way they dropped.  GS clearly came out on the attack, downgrading everything in site the day after CitiBank (who were downgraded by GS too with an outrageous statement that they have $15Bn in losses) downgraded ETFC in a hysterical statement the ETrade may be insolvent which poor ETrade has denied but nobody is listening.  This week of negativity was capped off with former Goldman CEO, Hank Paulson suddenly deciding to tell us he sees a mortgage crisis.

There were no new facts and nothing had indeed gotten worse than it was when I was warning you about all this same stuff as the market was flying to 14,000 and we decided to join the crowd and party like it was 1999.  This meltdown was so fundamentally obvious that I only missed the exact moment by 24 hours when I called it 3 weeks in advance but now we've had our correction and, as I mentioned two weeks ago in the weekly wrap-up (I'm on the road so I don't have the links), the technical boys are wrong about the bottom because they're not adjusting their charts for the weaker dollar and my numbers say this is it.  That's the light in which I think I see shenanigans!

When "THEY" tank the market or a stock right before a holiday it's because "THEY" want that to be the topic of your Thanksgiving dinners.  There are 100,000,000 people around the globe who have money in stocks and mutual funds but there are only 800,000 people who read the Wall Street Journal and even less than that watching CNBC so "THEY" need to reach that other 99M people through influencers, and that's you – the active investor.  If "THEY" can shake you up, you can shake your family and friends up, then panic will spread, forcing a bottom "THEY" can buy into.

I know this all sounds very paranoid and conspiracy theory-ish but it was William Burroughs who said: “Sometimes paranoia is just having all the facts.

As I said to members in Wednesday's comments:

 "This is the moment we’ve been waiting for! Blood in the streets, panic in the air, C trading at 2003 lows, BA back at ‘06 highs despite double the amount of orders they had then, HOV back at their 20-year average, WMT 20% below Jan ‘04… Did the World end?  No!  This is my favorite time in the market – hopefully this BS will continue throught the spring when we set up the Stock Club and my hedge fund, both of which will follow the LTP strategy.  This is the time that we take a nice hard look at each company and buy them, not based on some silly lines on a graph, but based on can they make money and will they make money for the next few years. If we do that and if we scale in properly and hedge well, then we can laugh off a return to 10,500 while we BUYBUBUY our way into another fantastic 2-year run.  Meanwhile, this is turning into a real stock picker’s market and patience is key."

Chinese character ji1 -- in traditional form ?

THAT is where I feel we are right now, pretty much right back where we were 12 months ago when I wrote this article on market perspective.   We are standing once again on the corner of crisis and opportunity.   I'm not saying we should jump in and buy everything in sight.  One of the post-its we like to keep on our monitors reads: "It is not my job to save the markets," but keeping our heads while others lose theirs is going to get us through this crazy holiday season and set us up for a very happy and prosperous new year.

I won't put a lot of stock in today's market moves as it's a short, low-volume day.  Our PSW Retail Survey (and please, read it over and contribute what you can) shows quite a bit of strength so far (ridiculously so in Apple's case), especially on the higher end and that's where we hang our bull hat right now.  We also have the ongoing discussion of an SIV "Superfund" headed by semi-neutral BlackRock which may calm fears in the mortgage markets.

The OECD is pinning mortgage write-offs at $300Bn, still on the lower end of my worry zone (now that other people have finally started worrying about it).  “We still have not hit the worst point in resets, delinquencies and ultimate losses on mortgages,” it said.  Again, I say: Tell us something we didn't know 6 months ago and we WILL panic.  That's all we've been getting for 2 weeks – an admission of what we uncovered and discussed all summer.  This is old news to us, we are ahead of the curve so let's not let ourselves get dragged down as the rest of the class struggles to catch up – we need to move on to the next level where we can wait patiently for the sheep to be herded in for the next slaughter.

Not much excitement in the world ahead of our open.  The Nikkei is closed but  up 50 yesterday and the Hang Seng is up 536 after a wild up and down session.   Our man Musharraf has been re-elected and Pakistan's Supreme Court declared that Gen. Musharraf's seizure of emergency powers was legal. "All acts and actions taken are also validated," Chief Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar said.

Well I guess that makes it all OK then.  Of course the general purged the court when he declared emergency rule so the remaining judges are all either his cronies or very, very scared people but the good general only learned from the master as it turns out he gave Bush a head's up on the whole thing way back before Nov 3rd and the US raised no objections until the press made an issue of it and, of course, those objections to our ally jailing political opponents, their supporters and the press, was lame at best.  Another Bush ally desperately clinging to power is Australia's John Howard, who's promised so much pork to the people if they reelect him that the Aussie dollar is already selling off ahead of Saturday's election.

Europe is clearly on the mend with another day of strong gains and I don't think there will be much in our short session to change their minds.   Factory orders are off and business confidence is down as both China and the US falter in their consumption against the very strong Euro.  This works for us on two levels as it supports my premise that US equities remain the least sucky place to put your money (given nothing but bad choices) and will pressure the EU to sabotage their own currency and save the dollar as well as the Yen.

At home it's all about Black Friday and let's keep in mind that Back in Black is supposed to be a good thing.  This is the day that retailers expect to go from red to black on the books with profits for the year generally taken in between now and Christmas. 

I won't be around for most of the fun today but my IPhone is set up to monitor C (got 'em), BAC (need 'em), BSC (got 'em), WFC (need 'em), GS (got 'em) and AIG (got 'em) and, of course, Google (got 'em) and Apple (got 'em, need 'em, can't live without 'em) and I'll have my DIA $130 puts on standby for a DD if we can't retake 12,900 but our virtual portfolios held up very well on Wednesday so I'm not feeling a lot of pressure to take action until I'm back at my desk.

Don't take today too seriously, whatever happens.  The real action begins on Tuesday when all the top dogs roll in from their long weekends.  Even those that show up on Monday usually spend the day in meetings and, unless retail looks worse than our early survey results project, most of those meetings are likely to be about what to buy into the close of the year.

Have a great day, stay defensive even though they may spike the market, we have a very busy week ahead of us and we'll be wanting some cash!

All the best,

- Phil

 


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  1. Phil,
    You are incredibly dedicated to your cause – cannot say enough good things about you and your cause/website. Cannot THANK you enough. What better day to say this than today?
    THANKS again.


  2. CMan you nailed it – Thank you Phil, Jared, Tina, and everyone else responsible for PSW.

    PSW Traders – Thank you for being here, it’s been a really great learning from you guys.

    Last but not least, a Special Thanks to K1.


  3. been really great*


  4. Again Thanks to Phil and all. These past couple of months have been great, and I have to give great credit to Phil for herding these “foxes” quite well.

    And thanks to all the “foxes” too, as you’ve provided an opportunity for this “young pup” to learn and grow.


  5. Why are we on this site at this hour?


  6. Because we are excited and worried what the next two trading days will bring.


  7. yeah, that was me.


  8. Hi DM,
    Seniors like you, Parchesia, Opt, film and other capable members need to lead us tomorrow in phil’s absence and Thanks you in advance for doing your part.


  9. We’re all night hawks I see…. Sounds like nightclub conditioning hah.

    CMan – lol I’ve been in the market for only 2 years, and active for only a couple months. Though I am young, and I try to take advantage of my learning curve. The internet is a great place.

    I’m not here tomorrow… Today… I do have a bullish outlook on next session though, if that helps?? But everyone is bearish tomorrow, so who knows!

    The low volume is very sketchy, so be careful if you do trade.

    If “Don’t lose the money” is rule #1,
    then “Stay in liquid” is rule #2 for me.

    Some people love illiquid stuff, people make millions on pinks… To each to hir own.

    Optrader – I disagree about the “guessing” post… People control the market. People are predictable. All games have rules —- we can win.

    I’m hungry and my eyes are open. We can do this, we can call the bottom, we can be right 100% of the time.

    There’s no guessing, we’re market connoisseurs.


  10. Asia Markets : Thursday, November 22, 2007

    (The following is from WSJ; please cross check with other sources to confirm.)

    Japan*

    14888.77
    51.11
    0.34%

    Hong Kong*

    26541.09
    536.17
    2.06%

    DJ Shanghai*

    490.11
    8.31
    1.72%

    S.Korea*

    1772.88
    -26.14
    -1.45%

    India

    18901.19
    374.87
    2.02%

    Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -189 10328

    BDI Charts & Spot Rates – http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report

    * at close
    Sources: Dow Jones, Reuters


  11. OOPs : The date on my earlier post must read : Friday, November 23, 2007


  12. Asian Stocks Remain Mixed, Hong Kong Outperforms – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21932215
    It was a mixed session for Asian stocks on Friday with some markets gaining ground as investors picked up beaten-down shares after a six-session losing streak. But trading was dulled by holidays in Japan and the United States.

    The Hang Seng Index was the main winner, gaining nearly 2 percent after two straight days of sharp losses. South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI fell to a three-month closing low at 1,772, down 1.45 percent, as traders sold brokerage and chemical stocks.Australia’s key S&P/ASX 200 index was barely changed, wallowing at nine-week lows at the finish line. The index closed 4 points lower at 6,330 with banks stocks falling further on credit worries.

    All eyes are on Black Friday, the start of the major U.S. holiday shopping season after Thursday’s Thanksgiving break, to gauge the health of consumers in Asia’s top export destination.


  13. Financials M&A Report Boosts Europe Stocks – http://www.cnbc.com/id/21926027
    European shares rose early on Friday, boosted by financials after a newspaper report that France’s AXA was eyeing rival CNP Assurances, while the euro at record highs hit autos. By 0821 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares were up 0.4 percent at 1,460.01 points, having rallied 0.7 percent the previous day driven by a surge in pharmaceutical stocks.

    With the euro hovering around fresh record highs against the dollar, auto stocks were once again among the biggest negative weights on the FTSEurofirst.


  14. Euro Falls vs. Dollar on ECB’s Ordonez Comments
    The euro set fresh record highs versus the dollar on Friday, but the $1.50 level proved out of reach for now as the euro was knocked more than a cent off its peak by comments from a euro zone policymaker. Moves in currencies were amplified by thin liquidity in the wake of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States on Thursday and with Japanese markets closed for a holiday on Friday.

    ECB Governing Council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said he saw a stronger than expected slowdown in the euro zone and that there was not enough data to dispel uncertainty about the effects of financial market turmoil. Ordonez’ comments reminded investors that the fallout from the credit crisis is not limited to the United States, where they have prompted 75 basis points worth of cuts in the fed funds rate since September and helped send the dollar to record lows.”The comments re-emphasize that while the market has been preoccupied with U.S. economic weakness the U.S. is not alone in suffering and the euro zone will struggle or at least decelerate next year as well,” said Jeremy Stretch, market strategist at Rabobank

    The euro was down on the day against the dollar and well below the peak of $1.4966 set earlier in the session, according to Reuters data. The rise in equities — fuelled also by talk of merger and acquisition activity — together with the sell off in euro/dollar helped drag the dollar up from 2-1/2 year troughs versus the yen. Against the yen though, the dollar is down more than 6 percent since the start of November and on track for its biggest monthly percentage fall versus the yen since early 2000.

    The yen and the Swiss franc have both benefited in recent sessions as investors, worried about the fallout from credit market problems and the impact on the broader economy, remained averse to risk. Sterling’s losses deepened after data showed economic growth was weaker in the third quarter then previously thought. At 9.34 GMT the pound was trading around 2.0580 usd, down from around 2.0630 before the figures were released at 9.30.

    Oil steadies as record dollar weakness offsets demand worries
    Oil steadied after falling yesterday, as renewed record weakness in the US dollar offset worries over the impact of slowing US economic growth on oil demand. Prices have fallen for two days running on concerns that the US sub-prime housing and credit crisis is spilling over into the broader economy, crimping economic growth.

    “In recent days … we have seen massive selloffs in US equities, while credit markets are seizing up again,” noted MF Global analyst Ed Meir. He added the sell off in base metals shows they are taking growth worries seriously. In oil, however, the situation is slightly different, with many players still gunning for the much-hyped 100 usd a barrel level, said Meir. Prices have steadied today, for example, amid renewed record dollar weakness.

    A weak dollar makes oil, which is traded in dollars, cheaper for holders of other currencies. In addition, oil remains underpinned by fund interest and by worries supplies will be stretched tight in the peak demand winter. At 9.31 pm, Brent crude for January delivery was trading up 16 cents at 94.66 usd a barrel, having hit an all-time peak price of 96.53 usd on Wednesday. Meanwhile, New York WTI crude for January delivery was down 32 cents at 96.96 usd a barrel, having hit a record high of 99.29 usd on Wednesday.

    In addition, there is still a chance OPEC, supplier of nearly 40 pct of the world’s crude oil, will give into political pressure from consuming countries and raise output at its Dec 5 meeting.

    The cartel, which convened a heads of state meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia last week, has said it will raise output if necessary, although it believes the current rally is a result of fun manipulation and not a lack of supply.

    Copper rises as dollar weakness lends support; Shanghai stocks fall
    Copper rose as dollar weakness and a fall in Chinese stocks outweighed equity market turmoil for now, but analysts ruled out a price rally and even questioned if recent small price increases will last. A weekly report today from Shanghai said copper stocks fell by 21 pct to their lowest level in March of 44,855 tonnes which lent some support to copper. China is the world’s top copper consumer followed by the US.

    A daily LME report released earlier today said stocks rose again, this time by 925 tonnes and now stand at 184,425 tonnes. At 9.29 am, LME copper for three-month delivery was up at 6,655 usd against 6,565 usd per tonne, having yesterday hit 6,430 usd, its lowest since mid-March.

    The dollar hit a record low against the euro this morning. Other dollar-denominated commodities, like oil and gold, were also up — also garnering some strength from dollar weakness. While oil and gold have tracked the dollar’s movement closely and hit record high prices, copper and industrial metals prices have been following struggling equity markets in recent months.

    Elsewhere, zinc was up at 2,235 usd a tonne against 2,220 usd. Lead was higher at 2,917 usd against 2,840 usd. Nickel was up at 29,000 usd a tonne against 28,850 usd, aluminium edged down to 2,485 usd from 2,500 usd, while tin rose to 16,450 usd from 16,200 usd.

    Gold buying picks up as dollar collapses to new low
    Gold rose as the dollar collapsed to an unprecedented low against the euro and as oil prices, near 100 usd a barrel, sparked inflation jitters. Gold benefits from an ailing greenback as those trading in other stronger currencies find dollar-denominated commodities to be cheaper. Sky high oil prices meanwhile, which have almost doubled since mid-January, stoked worries over inflation — to which gold is bought as a hedge.

    Gold surged to 845.58 usd an ounce early November, just 0.5 pct lower than its all-time record high price of 850 usd in January 1990. At 9.44 am, spot gold was trading up at 808.35 usd per ounce against 803.25 usd in late London trade yesterday.

    In other precious metals, platinum was steady at 1,468 usd per ounce from 1,468.50 usd. Silver was up at 14.54 usd per ounce against 14.53 usd late in London yesterday, while palladium edged down to 349 usd per ounce against 349.50 usd.


  15. Wow, everyone who took on that FRO play is smiling giddy this morning. Remember to sell into the excitement today and see how this plays out. I remember trying to tell members not get shaken down by Goldman and their ruthless downgrades but let’s take today with a grain of salt and stick by our great companies.


  16. C is up
    AAPL is up

    those r my longs- C b/c oF rubin taking control (that’s got to play well, as the man signed money for a few years)

    AAPL- b/c there aren’t enough AAPL stores for all the AAPL fiends.


  17. thinking about uncovering my AAPL and re-shorting later in the day.


  18. Cap
    November 23rd, 2007 at 9:14 am | Permalink
    Film, I bought Clackamas Town Center back in the late ’80’s or early 1990’s when I was buying real estate for pension funds. Do they still have the ice rink ?

    Good mall.


  19. I just need to share one comment. I watched World News Tonight and saw the masses struggling in Bangladesh, no food, no money, no clothes and many had lost relatives from the Typhoon. Then I went out to take a post dinner drive with my family and noticed dozens of cars pulling into the local mall. In Massachusetts we have Blue Laws which prohibit most stores from opening on major holidays so of course I followed the cars to see what was happening. I found hundreds of people waiting in line at Best Buy at 7:30 PM and the store doesn’t open until 5:00 A.M. A sense of disgust overcame me and it made me feel embarrassed to be an American. People can do whatever they want by the contrast was striking. It was raining and people are laying on the ground sleeping to realize the American Dream…a big sreeen television to replace the measly 32? one they have. I wonder…are some of these folks the same ones struggling to pay their credit cards, car payments, mortgages? My wife works at an inner city public school and the kids there are considered poor by American standards, but ask them how many have 1 tv, 2 tvs, 3 tvs. Most all of them have their own room to sleep in, multiple televisions, ipods, cell phones. Sorry to rant, boy do we have a screwed up sense of what is important.


  20. Thanks Phil and everyone for a great year of trading and learning! Thanks K1, for some amazing work.
    Thanks AAPL and GOOG.
    Thanks DM, for always disagreeing with me.


  21. Cap, they closed that down in 2003. Probably because they used to say, “That is where Tonya Harding trains.”


  22. Remember those FRO puts I left open for fun. They ain’t so much fun, now.


  23. Today’s goal for AAPL is get to $175 and close up there. No reversals today.


  24. Film

    I remember watching the news the night Nancy Kerrigan got kneecapped and I said to my wife…I’ll bet that crazy Tanya Harding is behind this. Tanya would come into our station in Hillsborough and the manager would catch her shoplifting candy bars. Even though she was banned from the Chevron stations she’d still come in and give our employees a hard time. “Do you know who I am, I’m Tanya Harding” too funny.


  25. Thanks for the great perspective fredrang.

    I also want to thank everyone and especially Phil for making this website what it is. Since I became a member in January, I’ve had more fun this year in the stock market than I’ve ever had. “Fun and profits” is right and I just want to say thank you to everyone! I really do appreciate what we have going here and of course Phil is the biggest part of it, so extra thanks to him!

    Have a great weekend!

    -Corey


  26. perspective:

    thanksgiving was officially made a holiday by lincoln to shore up the patriotism in the north and the morale of union soldiers (1863)

    the pilgrim story wasn’t mentioned until the 1890s


  27. STX what’s up with that?


  28. To All E*TRADE Customers:

    These haven’t been easy times for E*TRADE, but it is during difficult times that we realize what we are truly thankful for. Today, we at E*TRADE are especially thankful for your loyalty and commitment to the Company. And we are grateful to be working with a team of people who believe passionately in their mission to deliver an exceptional experience for an intelligent and savvy customer base. We remain committed to providing you the best combination of pricing, functionality and service in the industry. That will not change—ever.

    Many of you have contacted us over the past week with questions about the Company’s balance sheet. Rest assured, we are working diligently to address all questions as they are raised. Although calm is returning to the market, we know that we still have work to do to maintain your confidence. In this regard, we are hard at work everyday.

    E*TRADE is a strong franchise and our core business fundamentals remain firmly on track. Your assets are safe with us.

    FDIC insures all E*TRADE Bank accounts to at least $100,000 and Extended Insurance Sweep Deposit Accounts to $500,0001.
    SIPC protects E*TRADE Securities customers up to $500,000 (including $100,000 for claims for cash).
    Additional E*TRADE Securities protection provides up to $150 million per brokerage account, underwritten by London insurers (aggregate $600 million).
    E*TRADE is well-capitalized by regulatory standards.
    All of us at E*TRADE FINANCIAL wish you and yours a Happy Thanksgiving.


  29. Lincoln started a war against turkeys to boost the country? Bush is like Lincoln.


  30. xian,
    Did you catch the Jay Leno rerun last night? He asked the “man on the street” where the Pilgrims came from, when the first thanksgiving was and the branches of the military. I thought the funniest answers were “Pilgrims came from another part of the United States” and the “FBI is a branch of the military”. Loved the woman who started naming lieutenant, colonel as branches of the military.


  31. FRO – very nice Parchesia! We have a very smart group here and all we need to do is stick to buying good companies and there’s nothing the market can really do to derail our portfolios.

    “The man signed money” LOL Xian! I agree, the uncover/recover is the best way to play bullish mo for the day. I still don’t see going into the weekend uncovered as a viable option although I’d be willing to go less than 100% on Apple and GOOG (and the financials) if we can break 12,900 (13,000 is too much to hope for) and hold it with some authority.

    Fred – Don’t get me started! You’re right its am amazing thing and I just spent a nice day with some movers and shakers and it’s disturbing how little they worry about who they crush when they move and shake but ask most Texans what they think about China and they’ll be happy to tell you how they are ruining the planet with their industrialization and fuel consumption. I can’t believe how short-changed the facts (that China uses 1/5 the amound of oil we do) are in an oil town like Houston. They fight against changing mileage requirements even though raising US standards to 35MPG would save more fuel than all of Asia (including Russia) uses in total!

    AXP Apr $57.50s are cheap at $4.70, current $57.50s can be sold for $1.70 but no hurry I think. XXX

    YHOO Apr $25s at $3.80, Dec $27s can be sold against them for $1. XXX

    Thanks Opt, Corey and everyone else who make this such a fun place for me to “work” every day. It’s easy to do what you love well and I love the market and I love the group we’ve put together hear and that is certainly something to be thankful for.


  32. my mad indicator has gotten more extreme.

    this is an intermediate term bottom- we could see volatility in the short term, but we’ll b considerably higher in 1 to 3 months.

    drawdown could b 2-5% from here, but then it’s 4-10% up from there.


  33. I see GREEN … :D


  34. It’s a very good rally if the biggest drag comes from the energy sector.


  35. fredang- that sounds so hilarious, it’s actually sad. the easiest way to control people is to keep them ignorant (or scared, and those two work in tandem)- the gov’t has an easy job in this country.


  36. Goog-pull off from Wed buy, will wait for the pullback.
    APPL- Still covered on most.


  37. AAPL Dec 180 calls holding well. AAPL wants to make a new high right now.


  38. YRCW looks great here for a long-term play. You can get .80 for the $17.50s (but I’d want $1) and the Jan ’09 $17.50s are $3.70 XXX


  39. Qs not doing as well as we’d like (although good for the QID’s) but exercise extreme caution if they cant get over $50 as that means people are already selling into the rally.

    I’m DD’ing on the DIA $130 puts while I can, happy to lose .25 stopping out if we get a proper move but I’m not seeing it and, since I have to leave soon, it’s better safe than sorry! XXX


  40. CYNO-Very strong again today, testing $28.


  41. ETFC-running


  42. xian -
    the easiest way to control people is to keep them ignorant (or scared, and those two work in tandem)

    So true – Did you ever stop to think about the language we use to make things tolerable? I especially love “waterboarding” i.e. should be called simulated drowning. The guy who thought of this is really smart and they type of person I wouldn’t like…it sounds like a sport like surfboarding, boogieboarding.


  43. PFE finally starting a run.

    C looking much improved.


  44. CYNO-1/2 off for now.


  45. Weak $ –

    Shoppers from overseas were reveling in exchange rates that made discounts even deeper.

    The dollar hit record lows against the euro Friday and reached their lowest point in 12 years against the yen.

    “Everything is half price for us,” Ashlee Clifford said, smiling, as she shopped at a Circuit City (CC) in Manhattan. Clifford lives in Northern Ireland.


  46. If anyone took on the PGJ trade, now’s a good time to just let it run and do it’s thing. We’ll keep a sharp eye out and make sure that it’s bottomed but for now looks like the beginning of some sort of bull run, however long or shortlived.


  47. CCJ – I don’t have any position; any LTP good here?


  48. Just checking in. Hope you guys are enjoying yourselves.

    AAPL might look interesting today if it drops lower… maybe the 169, 168 level?


  49. TGT

    Looks like they are actually buying back stock…24 million shares on Wednesday,triple the normal volume. Saw 3 block trades of 2.5,2.75, 2.75 million shares. Should be a nice floor for the stock.


  50. Phil & Group,

    Sorry to bother with this, but I have been trying to get my Applefly filled and just can’t seem to get it done. I have 3 legs where I:

    Sold 2 Dec 165 Calls
    Got 2 Dec 180 Calls for a net of the 6.5

    Then I got the 2 Dec 150 Puts for 3.25

    But I am unable to get the Dec165 for the 9.75 I need to come up with the 6.5 net on the put side. Been trying for a couple of days and can’t quite seem to be able to get it there. Now I can sell a Dec 170 put today and turn the Applyfly into a hybrid condor (I guess). Should I just wait or go ahead and sell the Dec 170 Puts? I think I can still leg in with it but I am a little newer at this than you. Or should I be patient and see if Apple comes down next week. With just the three legs it get painful as Apple moves up. Thanks for the help.


  51. fredang- totally on the waterboarding thing- just like capital punishment (it sounds honorable)

    look at C!

    AAPL is up 2.50 and i’m feeling unsatisfied (i should check myself). i’m looking for the shopping stories this weekend. every producer in the country must b seeing an AAPL store piece as a no-brainer.


  52. On Film and his etrade info. By the way, thanks for posting that Film! It looks like Etrade is going to break the company up into two separate parts. The brokerage is going to be sold to who knows, maybe Ameritrade but there’s a loooong list of people waiting for that. The second is their distressed financial ass (sorry, assets), of which a noted specialist in distressed assets is said to be intersted. So, it looks like their up for sale if they can’t find a way out of their subprime issues.


  53. I’ve been holding AAPL Apr 170′s naked, at 25.50 now, up 18% from my entry.

    Would selling the Dec 170s or Dec 175s be a good cover?


  54. CCJ – I’m not liking the brackets they have now. If you are patient you can get the ’10 $40s $13 and sell the Jan $42.50s for $2.20 but there are no $42.50s in Dec which makes this a pain in the ass to trade right now.

    TGT – The trick is to see what happens when the buyback peters out but I think they’ll be a holiday winner and Jul/Dec $60s are net $4.50 XXX


  55. XOM

    Sold 13, Dec 190 Calls @ $1.90.


  56. CNBC bearing C now!


  57. Film-I think now is a good time to add to your FRO puts. They should still be under some near term pressure due to tanker rates. I’m expecting tanker rates to recover somewhat in Q1 from winter demand but not just yet and the stock is up 12% from our initial entry.


  58. TGT

    I like TGT, I’m buying back Dec 52.50 Put and rolling up to sell the Dec 55 Put for net credit of .90, 30 contracts


  59. VIP-acting like a Champ!


  60. The Dec 180′s at $5.50 seem a great leading indicator. That is the level we need to break through. I think those move to $7.50 over the next 2 days. Might be able to get them down to $5.00.


  61. Mornin’ all, hope you all had a great day yesterday.

    Took off some of my GS calls that I mentioned on Wednesday up 20%.
    Took off some of my Jan AAPL calls that I was holding naked up 50%.


  62. Film

    I’d think AAPL would be up more. What’s your take?


  63. just 90 minutes to go.

    i’ll b checking out the stores this weekend- i plan to look into AAPL, AEO, ANF, JCG and whatever else i can c.


  64. Actually xian I think it’s 1pm New York time – TOS says 12:00 CST.


  65. Phil.
    Any adjustements with current Dec googlefly? Thanks.


  66. shhh, don’t tell:

    “Over the past decade, there have been 68 days that showed a spread this large. One month after those days, the S&P 500 was positive 63 times (93%) by an average of +5.7%.

    While we had fewer component indicators prior to 1997, we actually have the Smart Money / Dumb Money indicators back to 1986. Looking at this wide of a spread since then, the one-month return was positive 72% of the time and the average return was +2.5%. The three-month return averaged +6.7% with 93% of the days showing gains.”


  67. rmyadsk- woops. nevermind me, i’ll just b trading alongside u guys.


  68. Xian-as optimistic as I would really like to be, I still have to be very cautious. I’ve been looking at our list of bargains and great companies and it looks like they’re consolidating by not selling as hard as some of the others and looks like they’re beginning new bull trends but I have to be cautious even though I would really like to get bullish again.


  69. Xian – what spread are you referring to?


  70. AAPL – those $150 puts are doing you no good right now, I would roll them up to the $165 calls for $6.10 (net $3.90) and hope for a pullback next week. Other than that, you are better off just taking the $1.20 loss you have now and just holding the other leg because you’re too far out of position to risk it over the weekend. If your spread is $6.50 with a $15 gap, you can’t afford to have two bad legs.

    AAPL/Chix – I’d cover 1/2 with the deeper $170s, more flexibility with the other half naked.

    Googlefly – we probably should adjust it but I don’t want to mess around without my full set-up. Way too many variables…


  71. Happy Thanksgiving, All.

    For those of you using Interactive Brokers TWS: Is there a way to get a 15 minute bar chart on a time period longer than 2 days? It seems if I change my time period to greater than two days I lose the 15 minute bar option.


  72. is GOOG “more awesomer” than AAPL?

    i think so- stock wise and company wise.

    AAPL can b faddish (very faddish), but GOOG is the way info moves around (not faddish).

    any thoughts?


  73. Moses- are you playing today? I had lunch with your Dad yesterday in Santiago. Great guy! I am trying to get him on MSN instant messenger but he isn’t getting what I am asking. Can you explain he keeps on giving GMail screen name. LOL


  74. Xian-AAPL is extremely faddish but as long as they have the pricing power they do, it tells me they’re at the peak of their power and I can’t bet against them. Until I see indications their pricing power is fading, i’ll know the fad is still in full swing. I can’t say which company is better, all I know is that tech is the way to go right now and those are the two best companies but I haven’t been digging in the little techie names yet.


  75. AAPL covers, thanks Phil! Many thanks to you and all the other traders that I’ve learned so much from this year.

    Doing my shopping on-line today instead of at the malls…


  76. conceivable- it’s a sentiment indicator that looks at the positioning of big traders v small traders, the rush into treasuries, and other stuff.

    recently, the indicator was this spread: 08/07, 03/07 & 06/06


  77. Phil, any new thoughts on TASR. Seems like a real coordinated effort to bring them down. Are you rolling down and selling the 15′s or just waiting?


  78. SPECIAL OF THE DAY:

    AAPL Dec 180′s at 5.40. Take them, risk 20%. 10R trade, I think…


  79. This is my Applefly position right now…all are green at the moment.

    AAPL DEC 165 Call S
    DEC 175 Call B
    DEC 160 Put B
    AAPL DEC 170 Put S


  80. Sorry. Risk 10% not 20%. $.50 down must re-evaluate.


  81. film- 10R! u mean the DEC 180s go to 50?

    please wait while i pawn all the jewelry i can find.


  82. xian

    Where is the rumor that Rubin will be made CEO? I think the market might take this as a negative even though he is a brilliant guy there is a perception that he should have provided more oversight even though he had a non-operating role. What did the guy do for $17 million? He was a brilliant risk manager at Goldman.


  83. Here are the prices I have for those for comparison.

    165 12.62
    175 5.54
    160 4.58
    170 11.50


  84. Optrader,

    I followed you the other day on that RIMM spread. I’m looking really good so far on that one as well!


  85. this will b me in 20 minutes:

    “how much can i get for these rifles? the sidearms stay with me”


  86. fredrang- doug kass has posted that rumor on realmoney- he has been very good lately with the banks (he called MER and the exit of prince- as in, he has the timing perfectly)


  87. Hope it is not Rubin. Then my calls are screwed.

    Thanks Fredrang, Closed those FRO puts as the calls on AAPL that I left open cancelled each other out, so no harm, no foul.

    Actually, I am getting a bit scared now. I think we have a capitulation day coming soon. Really can’t ignore the technicals now. The snapback will be good, but I am looking at my portfolio and I am still way too bullish. Need to free up some cash to buy some index puts.

    Still feel comfortable with AAPL, but have to respect the selling.

    I have closed the AAPL Dec 180′s. I will be happy to pay $5.60 for them later, but getting a bad feeling. I think that means we are at the bottom. My capitulation point almost always marks the bottom. THAT is why I leave myself naked so often now.


  88. Oh well, At least we have a higher high on C. Now, maybe I can actually start rooting for this pig.


  89. C making highs.


  90. GOOG v AAPL – I suppose my issue with Google is that they don’t have enough competition for me to feel they are a survivor. When I say competition, I don’t mean inept attempts like MSFT, AOL and YHOO to attack them but the kind of competition Apple gets from the entire PC industry and MSFT and Palm, RIMM all telcos, a dozen on-line music services etc. Apple is a survivor and thriver and if I had to go into a global market-share battle, those are the guys I want my money on. To me, Google has nothing really that can’t be wiped out by some smarter guys – they just haven’t run into any yet. Over the long haul, I think they’ll learn to market like Apple does and become the better play.

    TASR – I think it’s still the Canada death. The usual pattern for them is they rocket once the incident gets cleared (until the next one). This one is a matter of patiently waiting to see how low they go. My roll only gets cheaper the lower they move (severe optimism there!) and I’m certainly not inclined to sell $12.50s as I have too much fear of a pop so no (more) harm in waiting.

    AAPL $180s? We only have 15 trading days left for Apple to make $15 to get you even, not odds I like. If you remember from the IPhone roll-out, it’s very hard to get a real reading on Apple numbers until they make an official announcement at earnings so I’m figuring no big moves until then unless the whole market starts rolling (and up 100 after that drop is hardly a rally so far).

    Rubin – just another Goldbot taking a ppsition at the top of the financial food chain! This reminds me of that movie where they were replacing all the political leaders with androids…


  91. Hi guys,

    Just wondering what software you all use (if any) to generate risk graphs? I’m in an Applefly spread but don’t really have any tools to generate ‘what-if’ sorts of scenarios. OPXS has a nice P&L calculator, but it only works with positions you already own and you can’t say something like “What would this graph look like if I sold my 180 puts and bought 175s at $6″ etc.

    Thanks


  92. TASR- they also have a guy that a policeman shot in UTAH. Just saw it on CNN International. It is on youtube.


  93. Adam

    If you have OXPS you can go to ‘toolbox’ and then ‘trade calc’. Put in the symbols and the trades and it will draw the PL graph for you.


  94. film- i’m thinking we need a washout day as well.

    i’m thinking about puts or shorting something to b able to game that day.

    right now, i’m too long and that day would test my stress tolerance. i plan to uncover the AAPL on that day, but i want to max out that opportunity and have some index puts (which i don’t have right now).

    anyway- thinking out loud.


  95. Adam, TOS has the best tools for this kind of risk analysis.


  96. Phil, you don’t think AAPL will move until earnings?!?!?


  97. Hi Phil,
    Have the Mar/Dec 650 Goog Calls you mentioned the other day. Should I roll up 650 call or let it sit? Thanks!


  98. Applefly – don’t forget our target is $165 and the max possible gain is $15 (assuming you got the good spread) if we hit it on the nose. If you are able to get $10 now, that’s a bird in the hand equalling 1.5 in the bush – that one is so obvious they don’t even have a proper adage for it!


  99. RIMM-yes, Dday, this spread is working real good so far. No stress at all with this kind of position. Thanks, Phil.


  100. Dday – thanks. Yeah I’ve seen that, but it only seems to work with current market prices when entering a totally new position. What I was hoping for was a tool that would help me modify trades that I’m already in (how would the graph change if I roll down one leg for example).


  101. Morning all, saw this re: AAPL. If you read article states AAPL paid for IP on DVR technology, the next capability to be added to AppleTV, or some other new product?

    http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200711211737DOWJONESDJONLINE000858_FORTUNE5.htm

    CYNO – good job Optrader. I still have my callers since the trend is still down, with weekend coming up. Stochastics seems to indicate a bottom but MACD also down.

    NFLX – Phil, you still naked on the Jan calls or have you covered?


  102. GOOG – The danger is still to the downside but you can begin a pre-roll by picking up pershaps 10% of you March contracts in $670s, if it keeps going up, you buy another 10% and another and another until you are ready to roll up your caller with all the cash you’ll get from taking your original March $650s off the table.


  103. Thanks Opt, I’ll check them out.


  104. AAPL-I agree with Phil. I love selling the DEC’s here. $9 premium in the 170′s. That’s $3 per week that your caller is giving you (Ok, I sound like him now, scary). I’ll be real happy with a big move here but:
    1) Everyone thinks that AAPL is the best Christmas play out there. Who’s left to buy?
    2) December is usually a slow month for the stock.

    I’d much rather buy the Jan’s than the Dec’s as they have earnings+Macworld.


  105. Adam, as Optrader mentioned, TOS does that without a problem. I’ve been very happy with them.


  106. No move for AAPL today. That’s okay. The higher low is so much higher, I will take it.

    I am playing Dec 180′s for ‘mo play only!!! That is why I have been whipping around.

    Whoops, didn’t hit send then DROP!

    Maybe we do get a higher high today….


  107. OPT,
    What CYNO calls do you have? Thanks.


  108. Applefly

    I guess you’re right. I can’t lose at what I got right now and waiting longer is just greedy. Maybe I’ll just take them all out while they’re all green!

    Adam

    I guess I’m confused. Can’t you just plug in the three positions that you got and the new position that you want to leg down to and see the PL graph on the trade calc? You can adust the price of the spread in the debit/credit price that you want at the bottom no?


  109. a friend of mine told me something interesting:

    in china, using a credit card (or debit/check card) is very, very rare.

    if this is true (i haven’t researched), then MA looks to b a monster as their behavior changes.


  110. CYNO _ Adam, I believe Optrader is in the stock only, but he can confirm. I have Mar30s and 35s, with Dec25s sold against the 30s.


  111. Oops. Addressing Jason, not Adam on CYNO


  112. Until I see the treasury curve stop steepening and the 10 year start falling, I know that no money is being rotated into stocks, just into different sectors. Keep this in mind with the correction…


  113. AAPL is coming apart- we shoud expect selling into the close.

    i’m selling away 2/3 my C.


  114. xian

    Does Kass think Rubin is a good thing? What’s his take? Kass does know Citi inside and out. He wrote a book about these guys so he has deep connections. thanks


  115. The premiums may be high on the Dec’s, but AAPL will probably touch 190 before they expire. This thing is going to be all over the place, but quiet and demure it will not.

    It is just a matter of us putting in that last little bit of selling pressure before we explode in a global market peak.

    AAPL happy. Maybe an analyst has written a piece on how Dell’s iMac is more than AAPL’s?


  116. xian, similiar story in India. Some of my relatives in India are just starting to get credit cards. There seems to be a natural progression from ATM cards to Credit Cards. People in these countries are used to carrying very large amounts of cash. So MA, AmEx, and Visa could go nuts in these markets.


  117. CYNO-just stock.


  118. i think kass likes the rubin idea- he is long the C calls i just sold a piece of (nice +0.20).

    i still like the chance C gets the rubin news this weekend and everyone will love it – for at leat a day, or half a day.

    rubin commands respect.


  119. Dday – honestly I haven’t played around with specifying the cost of the spread on that screen much. I tried it once and when I looked at the ‘Entered Trade’ section in the top right I only saw a price attributed to one leg of the spread and figured the feature was broken :P It looks like the graph is drawing correctly however so let me play around with it more and see if it does what I want.

    Thanks!


  120. Xian – could you tell me what you’re basing your AAPL “coming apart…selling into c.” on? I was just thinking they looked like they wanted to hold 170 pretty bad. But I’m not in sync w/ this market.


  121. AAPL JANs r seeing action pick up- r others reading this as well?


  122. Phil – If you’re still around, you still looking at the DUG 42′s?


  123. AAPL-$190 in December? Well, I’ll be real happy if they do, but as far as I remember, this stock never moves in December. Just check the charts. Of course it does not mean it won’t happen this year, but other years were big Apple’s Christmasses as well.
    This guy on CNBC just reminded me I want to buy some TRLG.


  124. DECK-I got filled on Wednesday at the close on my spread Jan/Dec 145′s, for anyone interested.


  125. MrN- it seems i jumped the gun and exagerated. i haven’t touched my AAPL (all JAN series).

    i needed a reason to sell some C b/c i want nice cash ready for next week.


  126. OPtrader-I got out of RIMM the other day, $100 to $115 was great. Which spread did you do?


  127. Dday – looks like the Trade Calc screen does just what you said. Thanks for the tip.


  128. Bill Griffith just gave everyone the go ahead to “Buy that TV. Help the economy.” Who cares if you can afford it or not.


  129. Xian – Thanks, just lookin’/learnin’ I was hoping for a bit more pop; but fearing the old sell into the close, just in different time frame.


  130. RIMM-I did the Mar/Dec 135′s. I don’t remember exactly when it was, but I adjusted it with more weight on the bearish side after seeing that the delta was a little too positive for me. Then on Wednesday morning I bought back the calls to even. So right now I am 1/1. Working pretty good.


  131. APPL – that’s the whole point of the Applefly – we’re expecting a range between $160-$170 through expiration. Look at everything today, stocks are moving up but can’t make a significant move. The day’s of stocks going up and up and up for no particular reason may be over. That’s very good news as it will let us build a real base for the next round of the market rally without so many gigantic gaps to fill.

    NFLX – no changes to portfolios from Weds other than DD on the DIA puts this morning.

    LOL Optrader!

    DUG – Oops, I forgot I did pick those up post portfolio posting! Yes I’m fine hanging onto those. They make a good hedge on a global economic meltdown and, even if the global economy is fine, $100 is a joke of a price to expect oil to hit.

    APPL Dec – don’t forget last year they would have moved if it wasn’t for that massive attack launched to blow the Steve Jobs option thing out of proportion.

    Looks to me like activity is slowing already.


  132. opt- i saw the TRLG too- $300 jeans- that’s a business model!

    i’m looking at AAPL weekly back 4 yrs- now i don’t like AAPL- thanks!


  133. NYX-Testing 5MA.


  134. Lots of interesting ETFC option plays.

    Phil you should take a look. Maybe some ETFC flys in there.

    Now long $5 and $6 long calls.
    Short some $5 and $6 Dec calls.
    Short some $3 and $4 Dec puts.

    Going to try to keep playing the swings and build up a big long call position, partially covered by shorts.

    Look at some of these premiums. I just bot Apr $6 calls for 1.40 and sold Dec $6 calls for $75 cents.


  135. DUG – What is a good position for the DUG’s?


  136. Xian-Don’t get me wrong, I love AAPL here. I just think there is more money in selling the Dec’s. My position is very bullish though, with a very positive Delta.


  137. RIG- acting tough and Optrader thanks, I couldn’t remember.


  138. SIRF-Crossed 5MA, 5MA turned up.


  139. So, I read that history as if there is always a big up move in NOV/DEC before the pre-Macworld consolidation. We haven’t had that yet. We are still 5 full trading days from closing Nov. Dec may actually be flat, but I want to be uncovered and buying for the next 5 days, I think.


  140. Cap- you never answered my little wager on the Pack vs Cowboys game?


  141. Ha, I spoke too soon, looks like it was just selling activity that was slowing…


  142. haven’t looked at the Jan’s xian, but I feel that way about the Dec’s.


  143. this girl on CNBC looks petrified


  144. Adam – No problem, glad it worked for you.

    Optrader – I have a deck spread but its the 135′s.


  145. what’s time period for the 5MA method?


  146. HOV – Phil or any, what was the play there from a few days back? Can’t find in port’s & comments


  147. Optrader:

    Just sold 1/2 of my GOOG Dec 700 calls up 5 points.
    Thank you, thank you. Great call !


  148. 5MA-I use daily.


  149. Vegas-I have been thinking aboutit, and if it happens and if you guys are interested I’d be happy to do a small workshop on position sizing, especially for options. About how to decide of many contracts to buy depending on your risk, stops, and the volatility of the underlying. That’s something that I think is extremely important in this job and it is difficult to explain over the web, without documents.
    Just an idea.


  150. Phil

    “If you are able to get $10 now, that’s a bird in the hand equalling 1.5 in the bush – that one is so obvious they don’t even have a proper adage for it!”

    How about being smart is better than being too clever by half.


  151. Albo, well done! I am still keeping some, trying to be disciplined, but I just covered rolled to Jan 700′s, covered with 1/2 Dec 700′s. I will protect my profits that are very substantial, but I want to ride this one if it keeps going and only exit when price goes below 5MA.


  152. Opt – I think that would be a very insightful presentation.


  153. ETFC – why couldn’t CNBC spread that rumor before I took profits? 26% in one day?!!!???!?!??!


  154. Albo-I just noticed that you kept 1/2. Great!


  155. ETFC – I wouldn’t short, the whole sell-off was ridiculous, it’s more of a buy dips kind of play although you can’t go too far wrong with that Apr/Dec spread (maybe 3/2, not 1:1 as you can always sell stop the $$5s on the way down).

    DUG – Apr $42s for $7, you can sell $44s, now $2.30 or $43s, now $3 whenever you get uncomfortable but I’d have to see oil break $100 as I’d rather DD on the Aprils than sell the Decembers up here.

    AAPL – good point Opt. I love my ski house but every winter I get $4,000 not to use it between Xmas and New Year’s. Needless to say I find other places to spend my holiday weekends! Just because we love our Apple longs, there is no reason we can’t rent them out to fools who are willing to pey huge premiums for a very small slice of our ownership.

    RIG – you just can’t bet against those OIH guys!

    HOV – 2010 $5s are still $4.60 and you can sell Dec $7.50s for .90 but I’m waiting for $1+ for now (will lower my expectations next week if I have to). I am very happy to own a top builder for 4 times last year’s earnings for thew next 2 years with a call that is 50% in the money when I can sell a call out of the money for around $1 25 times, which is close to half of my premium in the first month. XXX XXX XXX

    CROX alert – they are showing the new $200 crocks on CNBC. No discounts on the new line.

    Chuck – yeah that one works.


  156. Opt. which charting software do you use? do you subscribe to any realtime data or you get it from your broker?


  157. DECK-On fire! nice.


  158. Phil – i apologize for this question, but i am having a very difficult time following some of your trades – for instance, your nov 21 LTP status update shows you are short 15 BMY calls, therefore you must have have entered the trade on Nov 20th or 19th. However, I cannot find any references, in either your download spreadsheets or your daily comments to the trade, either entering or exiting. How can I follow the daily trades for you LTP?


  159. GOOG – I have the Jan 720′s


  160. Charting-I use Power Etrade Pro. For trading I now use mainly TOS. I also have an account with Optionsxpress and with Tdameritrade. But TOS is by far the best one. The way you can roll options is by far way superior to OXPS (which requires a couple steps), as well as the way you can get real-time prices for all kind of spreads. And their “Analyze” tool is great.


  161. AAPL- selling DEC calls? i’m thinking the 195s r free $$ as a good hedge against my long JAN 190s?

    thanks-


  162. This is a low volume FMD.

    I’m not trading it, but this is what an FMD looks like.

    Phil, take note of QID … Jul calls haven’t moved or traded, even though QID down $1. Very inefficient. Right now, I think you and maybe a couple others here are the only players in July calls. 27 contracts open interest, all strikes combined.


  163. Well, selling the Dec’s has been a good trade. I believe next week will be a better time to resume that trade. That 4-yr weekly has a MACD with confirming highs and a Fast Stoch that is near the lows of the years. If I am wrong, then I will be selling this like crazy because that means a drop to 140 for the technicals, but the fundamentals won’t let it get there.

    We all agree that this is the best managed company in the world, and it is the best managed stock in the world. If I controlled this thing, my target would be to get it to peak in January. The big holders are just going to hold at worst.


  164. TGT

    Nice recovery, higher than before their lousy earnings. I love it when a company actually does buy back their stock when they say they will.


  165. BBD … I must have missed the wager comment … what did you have in mind ?
    Should be a good game / good test for both teams.

    J E T S were not much competition yesterday.

    Are you going to the game ?


  166. What a nice day this is turning-out to be. Lots of extra money to spend shopping this afternoon.


  167. AAPL

    Selling the 150 Puts for $2.10, 20 contracts


  168. black friday point: the temp has just gotten colder here in VA- very nice outside.

    this will spur all the “pent-up sweater” demand?


  169. I will admit, I still like having the option of “going to my ski home” at anytime. Definitely holding too dear, but that’s my bag, baby.


  170. GOOG-Can we test $680 today?


  171. BMY – I believe you can find the timing of those sells if you do a CTRL-F for “Cover, cover, cover!!!” I try to do reviews and, if you go back to before the last options expiration where you’ll see an LTP review in which I detail my intentions for each position but I simply cannot detail every single move I make. I go to great pains to do so with the $10KP and $25KP and I don’t even get all of those but the STP and the LTP are for the bigger kids and I do not set them up to have that much hand holding.

    For people who really want to follow these trades to the letter – there is a stock club forming where you can just put your money in and watch, which is great for people who have to work, don’t have the time or inclination to learn the strategies or simply don’t have the money to diversify adequately.

    QID – 20 of those calls are mine! I’m DD at $7.20 so we’ll see if we can get it to 47 contracts as I’m very satisfied with selling the Dec $42s for $2.40. XXX

    Yes Opt – very glad I got a chance to watch today. Even though I’m hardly playing it’s nice to see the untouched positions move off in the right direction. This was a perfect upside test as I was fine with Wednesday’s drop and I’m fine with today’s gain so I can sleep well knowing I could care less which way we go on Monday – now that’s a vacation!


  172. Film

    I’m with you. I don’t have a winter place by my summer place in Old Saybrook,CT. I rented it once and all kinds of annoying small stuff disappeared.


  173. Well, I have a house in St-Tropez. Never go there in July and August, it’s always rented. And it’s fine with me. 2 months of rent pay for Mortgage + expenses (utilities, gardener, swimming pool guy etc..) for the whole year.
    Trying to find another house so I would be able to do the same in the US (with ELOC money from the french’s house, in Euros), but it is very difficult to find one here as vacation rentals are not as expensive, compared to the price of houses. Looking at Lake Tahoe as you can rent winter and summer. Maybe Mexico.


  174. Lake Tahoe is a slum dunk, great place to own a rental property.


  175. Fredang-yes, it is nice, but houses are very expensive comparatively. I can rent our house in St-Tropez, which cost the same price than the ones in Lake Tahoe, for 20,000 euros/week. Impossible here.


  176. CYNO-$29!


  177. rental properties in dominican republic must b a killing.

    we rented there for 1 wk b/c a friend had his wedding there (la romana) and we paid handsomely for a pimp villa.

    got me thinking.


  178. Tahoe – I have a condo there. Doesn’t rent with regularity but does OK on holidays and I’m never there anyway. It’s our first of 5 planned, one every 3 years, then combine them into a retirement place when we’re ready to spend more time out there. It’s pretty much my favorite spot on the planet.


  179. Phil – for smaller accounts – wouldn’t it be better to buy HOV stock (~$7.50) as this is marginable rather than JAN’10 $5s for ~$5? . For 1000 stocks or 13 contracts (roughly same cost) in my case the margin diffference is ~$2000.


  180. CYNO-I had to sell another 1/4 here.


  181. ok. undoubtedly, we r mad oversold (2 theta style).

    what if we don’t wash out? what if we start to creep like a stealth, ninja bull?

    i don’t know…


  182. Have a great weekend all.


  183. We should close at 10 every day.


  184. AAPL- is selling DEC 210s a crime?


  185. I have a place in Maui that I rent out a few months a year that more than pays for everything including our plane tickets and expenses.


  186. Optrader:

    Sold a few more GOQLTs. Only keeping a couple over the weekend.
    Thanks again!

    Have a great weekend everyone.

    Phil, tell Tina to keep her head up. The Redskins are on the mend.


  187. I like the picture of a ninja bull xian. You crack me up man. :)


  188. HOV – yes for a small account that’s right but you have to factor in the interest you pay and the additional risk in case they do go BK. The thing about a ’10 $5 contract is that if the stock goes to $2.50, it will still be worth more about $2.75 (what the $12.50s are worth now) so I will lose $2 less the $1 I sell the Decembers for or just $1 per $1 I put up. If you pick up 1,000 shares, you will lose $5 per share less the $1 you get for selling the calls.

    I try to make trades assuming I’m wrong and, if I don’t mind that downside, I’m willing to have less than optimal upside when I’m right as it all goes back to Buffett’s #1 Rule – Don’t lose money!

    Maui – now if we trade there the market closes at 10 every day!

    Have a nice weekend all, time to get back to family fun….

    - Phil


  189. Have fun Phil, turkey sandwiches all around :)


  190. xian, sadly, yes. :D


  191. totally- enjoy the weekend people!

    thanks a bunch.


  192. Great contributions on the retail survey by the way, please keep it up. There is tremendous value to anecdotal evidence from a group like ours as we are not the typical “Jaywalking” crowd.


  193. I think I am going to check out the Crocs store in NYC today and see what kind of traffic they have. It was kind of a stealth opening.


  194. film- if i understand u correctly, then i think selling those things is a nice low reward/risk hedge on my JAN longs?

    maybe even the 200s?


  195. hey billbigD
    just explained to my dad about the instant msn
    been playing here only for the past hour
    glad you had a nice lunch!


  196. alright- i’m going to enjoy this gorgeous day in the VA- quite chilly, but fresh and sunny.

    i want to think about making some $$ by selling DEC AAPL calls next week, so any help in that will greatly appreciated (i’m long JAN 190s & 200s and short JAN 210s at a ratio 190:200:210::+1:+1:-1)

    thanks again- happy holidays and whatever!!!


  197. Have a good weekend everyone. Taking my boy out for an afternoon hunt.


  198. Take care boys, glad you guys had fun.


  199. Hi Optrader. I think it would be very beneficial to have you cover position sizing at the Vegas seminar. This is a topic that is not covered enough – especially when it comes to options trading.


  200. Hey everyone, just checking in, no trading for me today. Since we’re being thankful, I want to express my appreciation for everyone here. Not a day goes by that I don’t learn something new. My trading returns are still hampered by my inexperience, but I feel comfortable that I’m learning both the skills as well as the hard lessons early and without unnecessary pain.

    Phil, I really want to thank you for all your effort putting together this site, building this community, and supporting us all with your heart and soul.

    All the rest of you, I look forward to each day online with you all. And I look forward to meeting you all in person.


  201. Marysville, WA (30 miles North of Seattle)

    Fred Meyer (“Superstore” owned by KR) – Packed with long lines at checkout
    K-mart (SHLD) – Opened at 5AM, packed with very long lines at checkout

    Both of these stores had sales that lasted 5-6 hours and had circulated large flyers in the mail and newspaper.


  202. The investment club or hedge fund sounds appealing… is there anymore information about the intended plan?