Courtesy of Mish.
A ceasefire in Ukraine is supposedly underway. However there are many indications it won't last long. Let's take a look starting with a critical issue.
Kiev Denies Amnesty and Constitution Agreements
It seems highly unlikely that the separatists will honor the ceasefire given Kiev Denies Amnesty and Constitution Agreements. My translation follows.
Kiev is not going to honor two important points of the new Minsk new agreements: Amnesty and commitment to constitutional reform.
Speaking on Friday at a meeting of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin, said amnesty will not apply to the separatist leaders who are guilty of "crimes against humanity". Foreign Minister also noted that Ukraine did not incur any obligation on making specific changes to the Constitution of the country.
The most difficult issue in resolving the situation in the Donbas continues to be the so-called debaltsevsky boiler in the Donetsk region, where, according to the separatists, several thousand Ukrainian military were surrounded. Kiev denies this information.
Clashes Intensify Ahead of Ceasefire
The Guardian reports Fears for Ukraine’s ceasefire as clashes with Russia-backed rebels intensify
Fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebel militias in the east of the country intensified on Saturday as fears grew for the durability of a ceasefire agreement that took effect at 12.01am on Sunday local time (10.01pm GMT on Saturday).
In an inauspicious omen for the prospects of any cessation of hostilities, rebels have said they will not consider any battles for the town to be a violation of the ceasefire.
Even before the peace plan was agreed, 50 Russian tanks, 40 missile systems and 40 armoured vehicles had crossed into Ukraine, Kiev claimed. The Ukrainians were moving up reinforcements on Saturday as well, in the hope that a ceasefire would allow them to reach Debaltseve, a national guard commander told the Observer.
[Hmmmm can I see some images of those tanks please?]
…
