Courtesy of Mish.
In response to Trump Reverses One-China Stance: What Happened? a close friend sent a single-word email reply: Tillerson.
There is considerable merit to my friend’s suggestion.
Please consider the Newsweek article: Tillerson Played Key Role in Trump’s “One China” Shift.
President Donald Trump’s acceptance of Beijing’s demand that he re-commit to a “one China” policy was heavily influenced by his new top diplomat, who argued behind the scenes that relations would remain on hold until Trump cleared up doubts about a longtime bedrock of U.S.-China ties, officials said.
Tillerson joined Trump’s national security adviser Michael Flynn and others in what one administration official described as a concerted effort to persuade the president that “this is the right way to go, this is right for the relationships and regional stability – and they won the day.”
The successful intervention by Tillerson, a former Exxon Mobil chief executive with no previous diplomatic experience who was confirmed just nine days ago, suggests that in a White House-dominated administration, the new secretary of state could help drive decisions on some geopolitical issues.
Tillerson’s sway on other Trump priorities, such as fighting Islamic State, countering Iran and improving ties with Russia, remains to be seen.
China had signaled to Washington that there would be no phone call between Trump and Xi and the relationship could not move forward until Trump reaffirmed the “one China” policy, one of the U.S. officials said.
But Trump’s acquiescence on an issue of extreme Chinese nationalist sensitivity also “creates the risk that the Chinese will conclude that Trump is tough in his rhetoric but can be rolled if they apply sufficient pressure,” said Bonnie Glaser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Tillerson’s emerging role suggests that he could be a moderating influence with both friends and adversaries who have been unnerved at times by Trump’s rhetoric and unpredictability.
The White House and State Department had no immediate comment.
Cooler Heads Prevailed
Whether or not China threatened to cancel Boeing orders is uncertain.
The certainty is Trump did roll back tough rhetoric with nothing to show for it (other than not having China cancel Boeing orders, a prospect that looked increasingly likely had Trump continued his bravado).
Did Trump Change Anything?
As noted by my friend Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank CIO, in Back to the Past, Trump has made big threats and promises but delivered little.
Trump has backed down on the travel ban (thankfully), China (thankfully), Obamacare, and possibly NATO (if so, unfortunately).
