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Thursday, May 16, 2024

Real GDI, GPDI: Recession Warnings?

Courtesy of Mish.

On the third estimate of GDP, the BEA releases information on Gross Domestic Income (GDI) and Gross Private Domestic investment (GPDI).

GDP and GDI are both the same measure of the same thing, but leads and lags apply.

Real private investment (not to be confused with income) is a measure of investment in the real economy, not under the influence of massive amounts of government spending.

Real GDPI Pecent Change From Previous Quarter

Real GDPI Percent Change From Year Ago

Negative GPDI is strongly associated with recessions. After dipping into negative territory recently, it is now at a weak year-over-year reading of +0.098%.


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