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Faltering Friday – G7 Meeting Gets Off to a Rocky Start

Oh Donald!  

The President of the United States started the day off with a math error, saying we had unfair trade deals with the G7 when we are one of the G7 so that's 6 countries we have deals with and then there's US.  While we can't expect the President to do complex math first thing in the morning, we could expect him to be more civil to other World Leaders and…. oh, who are we kidding, we can't expect him to act civilly either, can we?

Of course, Trump has to look like he's taking a tough stance and not trying too hard to make a deal because the other 6 World Leaders are firmly against him and this folks, is the weekend when Putin wins and the US officially breaks with it's former allies, who will stay another day and talk behind our backs and issue a joint communique minus the US for the first time ever.

How would you feel about a guy who treats our neighbor and most trusted ally this way:

Imagine spending you life as a politician and working your way into becoming a respected political leader – only to be insulted on twitter by this troll!  Trump isn't even planning on staying for the whole summit kind of drove home the point that he's a complete asshole, which finally spooked investors.  Keep in mind the Kim meeting is the 12th and today's the 8th and Trump has his own plane so using that as a reason to leave the the G7 early is a real dick move and a huge dis to the rest of the World leaders, who cleared their calendars until Sunday for the annual meeting that used to be considered the most important political event in the World.   

Image result for ostrich head in sand politicsAs we expected, the markets are tumbling but because the reason they are tumbling is that Donald Trump is as bad as we expect, the readers at Seeking Alpha didn't get to see yesterday morning's PSW Report, where we said this was why we would shorting into the rally ahead of the meeting, because we were critical of the President and that's apparently unacceptable at SA, who want to keep politics out of investing.

Aside from the DXD trade we ended up adding to our Short-Term Portfolio for a net $700 credit in the afternoon, we also had the following short ideas which we cashed in earlier this morning in our 7:19 Alert to Members, as we are playing for the usual bounce into the open:

  • Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures short at 7,200, out at 7,120 for a gain of $1,600 per contract
  • S&P (/ES) Futures short at 2,780, out at 2,763 for a gain of $850 per contract 
  • Russell (/TF) Futures short at 1,680, out at 1,666 for a gain of $900 per contract

That's not bad for a day's work and we don't want to risk it as G7 rumors can blast the market in either direction but, on the whole, we're sticking with our DXD hedge, which predicts the Dow will finish below 25,200 into expiration day on July 20th.  If we are going to re-short this morning, 25,200 would be the line we'll be watching.

Image result for there's supposed to be an earth shattering kaboom animated gifMeanwhile, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke agrees with me, saying "the US Economy faces a Wile E. Coyote moment in 2020" certainly after seeing this cartoon, which I posted in Wednesday's Live Member Chat Room.  It's that moment when you've already gone off the cliff and you realize you've gone off the cliff but it's too late to do anything about it other than brace for the fall.

Bernanke says fading stimulus will remove the supports from the economy and the $1.5Tn tax cuts leave the Government unable to step in and help.  “What you are getting now is a stimulus at the very wrong moment,” Bernanke said Thursday during a policy discussion at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank. “The economy is already at full employment.”  The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April that the stimulus would lift growth to 3.3 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2019, compared with 2.6 percent in 2017. GDP growth slows to 1.8 percent in 2020 in the CBO projections.  

Keep in mind we're running a $1.3Tn deficit, which is 6.66% of our $19.5Tn GDP (Trump's signal to Lord Satan?) and if you can't grow your economy 3.3% while borrowing 6.6% – then you really do suck at this economic stuff!  

Have a great weekend,

- Phil

 


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  1. I am guessing next year we will have a G-4 summit with Putin, Kim, Erdogan and Trump! It's really embarrassing now.


  2. Phil, I own 100 each of TZA uncovered july and Oct $10 since I bought back the short calls, how best to play these now?


  3. I also have SQQQ uncovered Sept $14, $18 and $20, Advice on how to use these best? I still a newbie learning how to profit off my hedges


  4. Capitalism is not working anymore (at least for most people) and Trump is not the solution:

    https://www.fuw.ch/article/the-swamp-is-alive-a-and-well/

    Murky deals, favoritism and the non-transparent role of special interest groups in the legislative process are making headlines in democracies around the globe. Luigi Zingales warns that such intrigues are undermining free markets and people’s trust in capitalism. Therefore, the renowned professor of entrepreneurship and finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business is championing fair competition and stricter antitrust legislation.[...]

    Then again, on Wall Street Trump is celebrated as a pro business presidentMost people confuse these two things: Being pro-market is being in favor of a competitive market system where you give everybody opportunities, but you don’t favor anybody. On the other hand, being pro-business is actually favoring existing businesses at the expense of other constituencies. An example of this is Wisconsin giving 4 billion dollars in tax credits to Foxconn to build a new factory.


  5. If you are in the top 80-99%, you are getting shafted by the top 1% and you are thinking that you are doing well:

    http://ritholtz.com/2018/06/its-an-unequal-world/


  6. Good Morning.


  7. For HMNY fans.  Who’s PLATO?  I don’t know, but stock is up 6% pre-market. 

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4180029-forget-past-unique-opportunity-presented-helios-matheson


  8. There you go, confirming what I predicted:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-wants-russia-in-g7-summit

    “Russia should be in the meeting, should be a part of it it,” he said. “Whether you like it or not, and it may not be politically correct, we have a world to run. And in the G-7—which used to be the G-8—they threw Russia out. They should let Russia come back in. Because we should have Russia at the negotiating table.”

    He added that he has been Russia’s “biggest nightmare” and that Russian President Vladimir Putin probably wishes that Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 election.

    Putin is very happy with his investment now! We have no friends and allies left. Job well done. That would not be the case with Clinton for sure.


  9. Anyone else have the site trying to upload files onto your machine? My Windows Defender just blocked something.


  10. Yes something is wrong. Closing down. Political attack? Nothing would surprise me, not anymore.


  11. ~~•Apple (AAPL -1.3%) and its suppliers gapping down after the Nikkei reported supply chain sources said Apple is conservatively planning capacity down 20% year for three new phones (two with OLED screens, all three with 3D sensing) this fall.


  12. Good morning! 

    Sorry it's been such a crazy week for me.  We're getting to final stages of launching the Judgment Search Network for PSW Investments and we're 1/4 partners, so I kind of have to do my share over there.  I expect this will be the worst week until we finish initial client tests over the summer and then we do a marketing push, which will take some time too.

    Indexes bouncing as expected but how high is the question.  There's nothing magical about 25,200 on /YM so, if it's failing, that's a bad sign.  2,770 on /ES will keep the downtrend intact as would 7,160 on /NQ and /TF failing 1,670 is a bad sign.  

    AAPL is down 1.5% this morning (rumors that component orders are down) so, on the whole, the Nas being down just 0.5% is kind of strong for the other 99 companies on the list.

    Big Chart – Failure at 7,200 is the one to watch on /NQ and 25,250 is the 20% line on the Dow but /ES over 2,750 (25% line) is bullish and we'll see if we can re-test 2,850, where we HAVE to poke short again.

    NYSE is still not confirming the rally – let's watch that mush hold line closely (12,800) and the RUT is actually lagging the others, since it's "only" up 15% so any weakness there should be concerning.

    G4/StJ – Who says they'd invite him?

    TZA/Millard – Well uncovered is never good.  That's not a hedge it's a bet when you do that.  The Oct $10s are still about 0.66 but the July $10s are just 0.20.   If you are trying to ward off a catastrophe, you could consolidate your 0.86 and buy the Oct $8 ($1.45)/12 (0.45) bull call spread for $1 so another 0.12 puts you 0.95 in the money on a $4 spread and you get every penny of downside the RUT gives you up to 300% and, if it doesn't go down, you're longs better make about $30,000 to cover the $10K loss.

    As you can see in some of our Portfolio Reviews (not all as it's a ton of work), we KNOW how much money we will make in a flat or up market so we KNOW how much hedging insurance we can afford to lose.  Make sure you have your own Portfolio Plan and are very sure you are adequately covered (not over or under).

    SQQQ/Millard – Again, uncovered is NOT how we do them since they are merely insurance hedges – NOT bets.  You aren't supposed to "profit" off your hedges much in the way you're not supposed to profit off your life insurance or medical insurance or auto insurance.  You don't drive around hoping to get in an accident so you'll get your money's worth, right?   The hedges are to protect the longs and MITIGATE (not cancel out) the potential damage of a 10-20% market correction and closer to just 10%, as we assume we'll have a chance to add more hedges if the market drops 10%.

    In the STP, which is aggressively covering the LTP, we have 80 long Sept SQQQ $15 calls and 40 short Sept 20 calls and they are about 1/3 of our coverage against a $600,000 LTP and on 5/19, my note was:

    • SQQQ – The 50 short May $20s are covered by the 80/40 Sept $15/20 spread so it's at least 80 x $5 protection for $40,000 here and currently worth $14,400 so $25,600 worth of protection if the Nas tanks.  
    • TZA – As $25,600 on SQQQ and $20,000 on DXD didn't seem like enough, we just added 50 of the SQQQ July $10s, which are at the money so, if the Nas falls 10% then SQQQ hits $13 and we're $15,000 in the money on these.  
    • DXD – As noted above, we bought back the short $10s so we could take advantage of a spike down.  5% down in the Dow would pop DXD 10% to $9.20 and the calls back over $1, which would make us happy.
    • With DXD we have 100 July $8 calls at $1.10 ($11,000) that we bought on 3/2 and we bought back our covers with an 0.40 profit so net $7,000 for 4 month's insurance.  
    • On SQQQ we had sold 50 short May $20 calls against that position for $8,500 and they expired worthless which left us with a net cost of the 80/40 Sept $15/20 spread of $11,500 from Feb, so that's 9 months of coverage there. 
    • TZA is an aggressive 50 July $10 calls with 20 short Jan $15 puts and position had a net credit of $5,500 and we're down about $4,000 since March – another 4 months hedge.

    That's it – that's what we're protecting $600,000 with.  Actually, there's only $271,932 in actual positions in the LTP and $341,593 in cash so that too is protection.  Clearly we're well covered for a 10% drop, even if the LTP drops $100,000.   On the other hand, since we sell a lot of premium, we KNOW we will make about $100,000 by Jan if the market is flat or up (unless we are hellishly unlucky on our picks).  So the hedges will cost us about 1/3 of our anticipated profits and should mitigate about half our losses on a 20% drop – that's the plan.

    HMNY/DC – You can't trust these new people on SA.  All the scammers know they can open an account to sway opinions – especially on penny stocks.  It's turning into a pump and dump outlet.  I like HMNY, of course, but what does this guy know?  There's no instant fix for HMNY – it will take a few quarters for them to prove out their model – if they survive.

    Trump/StJ – Wow, can he be more blatant?  I guess he thinks he's throwing us off the scent by saying he's Russia's Nightmare when he actually means dream…

    Upload/Malsg – Are you able to tell Greg what it was?  If so, please do!  

    AAPL/Albo – Those reports always come from Nikkei and they rarely have anything to do with reality.  Oh well, they needed to let off some steam and consolidate above $190 for a bit to prove they can hold above that upper trend.


  13. Hello everyone! I'm mostly in dry powder: SCHZ and related and 1-24 month CD's 1.7-3%).

    Long term view is still bearish (over all price deflation) and higher volatility like we saw in February. Timing is at least an average "bear cycle" of 403 days (Jan 26th 2018 + 403 days, which is March 5th 2019). It's hard to stay focused but remember 2008. The Dow peaked on 10/11/07, the market crash started 9/29/2008 (354 days). And market bottom March 9th 2009 (150 days later, or 504 days from the peak). Force fitting history to the present is never a investing strategy. It's just a guide. Bear markets don't repeat but the tend to rhyme. For instance, Trump is very very different. Intranational economic and political forces are different, international forces are different.

    dablings in: CHK TEVA GE MRK CORN, a few other smaller stocks and random ETF's while markets continue to make appearances…


  14. Phil/SA

    Kind of my point with the article.  It's funny how little it takes to move the price even if it doesn't hold. HMNY is a small position for me.


  15. StJ, that's a global percentile chart – to be in the top 1% of that chart you need about $770k in net worth or $32.4k in annual income.

    Compare that to the US only: $7M net worth or $450k in annual income.


  16. Dclark – Wish I could say the same !

    STJ – Also wishing I had covered some QCOM yesterday on that spike up to 62.65.


  17. IQ & VRX at new highs.


  18. Sensible plan, BDC. 

    SA/DC – That's all those guys need, they take a position at the end of the day and then publish an article that moves a small stock and then they get out with a quick 5%.  Do that every day and it's a nice little business.  And notice there's no profile other than "I am a hedge fund manager of a small-cap fund."  No name, no web link, nothing.  How SA allows these people to publish and how the SEC doesn't shut the whole thing down is beyond me!

    VRX/Albo – On fire! 

    IQ simply crazy:


  19. getting there. Not quite there.


  20. SSTI     ShotSpotter Inc.  Interesting little company that makes gun shot detection equipment and software.

    Huge market if it works or ever caught on.  


  21. I published an armchair play on 5/23 on CLX when it was trading at 119 and this one is doing extreemly well. Today I am initiating a play for Oct 125/130 strangle for 10$ and the stock at 126.14 showing a combined return of 2.26% per month, not to bad for an Oct play.


  22. And Trump is late arriving at the G7 too!  

    • In a brief filed in a Texas federal court, the U.S. Department of Justice stated that the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate, forcing citizens to purchase health insurance or pay a fine, is unconstitutional following the Trump Administration's law signed last year that eliminated the penalties for not doing so.
    • The Justice Department also said two other major ACA provisions were nullified, including barring insurance companies from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions.
    • A coalition of 20 states sued the federal government in February claiming the law was unconstitutional after the repeal of the individual mandate penalty.
    • Restaurant same-store sales were flat in May to mark the third straight month of steering clear of negative growth, according to data from TDn2K.
    • Comparable traffic was down 2.9% during the month, but guest spending levels came in strong again to provided a needed offset.
    • TDn3K cites traffic competition from grocery store prepared food sections, convenience stores and independent restaurants.
    Yeah, Trudeau is really going to make concessions:  Soft job numbers for Canada
    • Canada lost 7.5K jobs in May vs. forecasts for a gain of 23.5K. The unemployment rate was steady at 5.8%.
    • On a year-over-year basis, employment is up 1.3%, with total hours worked up 2%. Average hourly wages are higher by 3.9% vs. 3.3% in April.
    • The loonie (NYSE:FXC) has given some ground vs. the dollar since the news hit, now down 0.25% and buying $0.7689.
    • American Express (NYSE:AXP) -1.1% after Susquehanna analyst James Friedman says the credit-card company could face a 6.6% decline in EPS, a 1.9% drop in revenue, and volume down 2.7% if the Supreme Court decides that AXP can't prohibit merchants from directing customers to cheaper payment options, according to a Bloomberg report.
    • Friedman sees the ruling occurring either on June 11 or 18, or the week of June 25-29.
    • Previously: American Express may have 20%+ upside by end of 2019: Nomura analyst (June 5)

    Iran criticizes reported U.S. request for Saudi oil production hike

    • Iran's OPEC governor predicts members will reject an unofficial U.S. request that Saudi Arabia and others pump more oil to cover a drop in Iranian and Venezuelan exports at the cartel's June 22 policy meeting in Vienna.
    • OPEC will not comply with the U.S. request and oil prices would rise to $140/bbl as a result of sanctions, the official predicts.
    • Iran also wants OPEC to include a debate on the new U.S. sanctions as part of the agenda for the meeting, but the group is expected to dismiss the request.
    • Iran's oil minister has asked for support against the sanctions and signaled his government disagrees with Saudi Arabia’s views on the possible need to increase global oil supplies; the two issues could set up a contentious meeting.
    • Crude oil prices edge slightly lower, giving up some of the recent rally sparked by supply concerns; WTI -0.1% at $65.87/bbl, Brent -0.4% at $76.98/bbl.

    Capstone Turbine down 8% post Q4 results

    • Capstone Turbine (CPST -8.8%) tumbles in early trade after reporting a $0.20 FY 2018 loss vs. a $0.79 loss in the prior year, with revenues +7% Y/Y to nearly $83M, but the company does not issue earnings or revenue results for the latest quarter.
    • Among FQ4 highlights that are presented: 23% total gross margin is highest in company history, 1.4:1 book-to-bill ratio is the strongest since Q2 2014, and adjusted EBITDA came in positive for the second straight quarter.
    • Adjusted EBITDA for FY 2018 was -$5.2M, or a $0.10/share loss, vs. year-ago adjusted EBITDA of -$21.9M, or a $0.68/share loss.
    • Capstone Turbine (CPST -8.8%) reported Q4 revenue of $21.1M (-7.9% Y/Y). Segment revenues: Microturbine products $11.5M (-24.3% Y/Y) and accessories parts & services $9.6M (+23.1% Y/Y).
    • Q4 gross margin improved by 1,340 bps to 23%, the highest in the company history.
    • Q4 expenses: R&D $0.8M (-27.27% Y/Y) and SG&A $5.8M (+13.7% Y/Y).
    • Company recorded Q4 aftermarket gross margin of ~45% for accessories, parts & services segments, which helped cover 77% of the company’s operating expenses.
    • Company reported a positive Adj. EBITDA of $0.1M in contrast to year-ago EBITDA loss of $3.5M.
    • Cash from operating activities was $500K.
    • Q4 product order book-to-bill ratio was 1.4:1, strongest in last 4 years and Backlog was ~$97.3M as of March 31, 2018.
    • Previously: Capstone Turbine beats by $0.02, misses on revenue (June 7)
    • Slides
    • Bernstein puts a number to the sum-of-the-parts talk on Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PH).
    • The analyst team thinks P&G is worth $104 based off of M&A comparables and some operational improvements due to a smaller scale factored in. The $104 valuation on Procter is 37% higher than yesterday's closing price of $75.76.
    • Bernstein has an Outperform rating on Procter & Gamble.
    • Source: Bloomberg, MarketWatch

    • Penny stock Helios and Matheson (NASDAQ:HMNY+11% premarket on volume of 400K shares.
    • A bullish article by Seeking Alpha author Plato Management yesterday notes the MoviePass owner recently disclosed that its new "one movie" policy have reduced fraud and brought down its utilization rate – which is causing HMNY to burn through cash – by 35%.
    • Author says fears HMNY will not make it through the summer are misguided, and says investors can pick up shares for "pennies on the dollar."
    • Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) again extends its tender offer from NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI). The new expiration date is June 15.
    • The tendered shares count stands at about 17.7M or 5.1% of the outstanding NXP shares, down from the 16.2% and the 13.1% tendered as of the last extensions. 
    • Qualcomm shares are down 0.5% to $60.34. 
    • NXP shares are down 0.2% to $119.84.       
    • Previously: Qualcomm extends NXP tender to May 25; tendered shares drop (May 11)
    • AT&T (T -0.3%) has raised prices again for users on older unlimited data plans that were "grandfathered" after the company moved toward metered plans.
    • Reporting from MacRumors via DSL Reports shows that those users on older, cheaper plans are getting an increase to $40 a month, from $35. That follows a late-2016 hike to $35 from $30.
    • "Consumers are using mobile data at record levels and the trend is expected to continue," AT&T says. "To help make sure we continue to provide the best service for all of our customers, a small price increase is being made at this time."

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has warned suppliers of a 20% drop in new orders for iPhone parts, according to Nikkei Asian Review sources.
    • NAR’s source: "Apple is quite conservative in terms of placing new orders for upcoming iPhones this year. For the three new models specifically, the total planned capacity could be up to 20% fewer than last year's orders."
    • Last year, Apple placed orders to prepare 100M production units of the iPhone 8 models and the iPhone X. Sources say Apple expects 80M total shipments of the new iPhones.
    • Total iPhone shipments dropped 1% Y/Y in the December quarter to 77.31M. Global smartphone shipments declined 0.3% to 1.46B units last year for the first-ever industry decline, according to IDC data.
    • Apple suppliers that could move on the news:  Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS), Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR), II-VI (NASDAQ:IIVI), Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE), Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS), STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM), Universal Display (NASDAQ:OLED). 
    • Previously: TSMC -2.6% on soft May revenue (June 8)

  23. QCOM / Albo – You can still cover 1/2 as we mentioned earlier. The Sept 60 rolll nicely to the Jan 20 72.5 which I thinking would be a high target. Or DD to the Jan 20 80. Which is 33% over where are today so a safe roll I think. I have BCS so fully covered for now.


  24. Russia / Phil – A good conclusion here:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/weve-got-a-problem-a-big-problem

    The last twenty four hours of attacks on our closest allies capped by President Trump’s seemingly out of the blue demand to bring Russia back into the G-7 (making it again the G-8 which it was for most of the post-Cold War era until Russia was expelled over the annexation of Crimea) simply brings the matter into a newly sharp relief. If candidate Trump and President Putin had made a corrupt bargain which obligated President Trump to destabilize all U.S. security and trade alliances (especially NATO, which has been Russia’s primary strategic goal for 70 years) and advance the strategic interests of Russia, there’s really nothing more remotely realistic he could have done to accomplish that than what he has in fact done.

    When will congress wake up?


  25. HMNY/Phil- I only shorted 30 of the 2.5 puts, I'm looking at the chain now, would you say I should short the $3 puts @ 2.7 with breakeven at .30? thinking to add around 10 more


  26. Thanks STJ.  Still remain partially covered and awaiting China's decision on NXPI.  Think we might get another spike up, if and when, it's approved.


  27. I would think that it's pretty much baked in by now though although a move higher would be welcome.


  28. GNC -Up 6% at this moment.  Selling Jan 2019 2.5 puts for .45-.50 remains attractive, IMHO.


  29. Now Trump says he will pardon Muhammad Ali for draft-dodging (something the President can sympathize with) but, unfortunately, the Supreme Court already overturned Ali's conviction decades ago.

    SSTI/Stock – Very interesting company, not sure how they make money or if the tech is unique but.so far, they seem to have the space to themselves.

    CLX/Yodi – Very nice, still playable.

    Russia/StJ – Aren't they still in Crimea?  Why did they get a pass on that?   Anyway, that's what I've been saying – if Trump isn't acting directly on Putin's orders – it's just a very lucky coincidence for Putin that everything Trump does benefits Putin.

    HMNY/Dave – Shorting the $3 puts?  Well, if you can get $2.70 for them then net 0.30 is as good as buying the stock with all the upside up to $3 but I'd rather buy the stock for 0.37 and then hopefully be able to cash 1/2 at 0.75 (all the money back) and then cover half for 0.50 at $1+ (40% profit off the table) so I wouldn't have to worry about it anymore. 

    NXPI/Albo – I think it's a done deal.  Nice on GNC too.

    Well, I have to go to NYC for the weekend but I really, truly think I'll be back on by 2pm, unless the hotel isn't ready, which is possible.  Either way I'll touch base by then.


  30. Albo/HMNY

    Hope you are not too exposed.  That one’s a bit of a crapshoot.  There’s always CTL, right?  Looks like that is heading to $17, before heading above $20?  I may try some of those GNC $2.5 puts.  I think that’s a fairly safe bet here.


  31. Tdump just needs a place to live when he's exiled…. :)


  32. oh, and TWTR!!!!!!


  33. Dclark – Heavier in HMNY than I should be, but if its a total loss, not too much damage.

    Wouldn't describe GNC puts as safe, but I think they're a good bet.

    As far as CTL goes, the street doesn't seem to concur with management's optimism.  I've been basing my over weight position not only on the stated optimism of CTLs management, and but on the action of two well respected investment managers.  As I may have mentioned, Southeastern Asset Management manages more than $ 8 billion.  They have in excess of 14% of their assets in CTL.  They have in depth knowledge of LVLTs management, who are now running CTL.  The other investor is Temasek Holdings, who have acquired more than 11% of the outstanding shares of CTL since April.  Their connection is through one of CTL's directors, Steven Clontz, who was formerly a director at LVLT.  Mr Clontz has also been accumulating shares with his latest purchase on May 11 of 41,000 shares. I could certainly be wrong, but feel good about accumulating as position in CTL which is still yielding more than 12%. We'll see.


  34. MDP a media comp. I established a play Mar 23 with little ups and downs. Looking to close an other longer armchair play by selling the Dec18 50/50 straddle for 8.50 and buy the stock at 49.95. The monthly combined return is 2.8% not too bade for sitting and watch the days go by.


  35. Yodi; I would be careful with MDP.  Publishing business in US is struggling.


  36. option thanks Trump will not be for much longer I Hope!!! The stock is at the lower part of the channel and shows good support at 47.5. So with 8.50 in your pocket it can not be too bade.


  37. Albo/CTL

    Thank you for the added discourse on CTL.  One of my larger holdings.  GNC is one I am stuck with from the past.  


  38. can't keep the nasdaq down i guess…

    will the 2pm stick appear again today or will we finally see a little selling before the weekend???


  39. Dclark – You're welcome.  Hope we're right on CTL. :-)

    MAT with another strong day.  Covered some more.


  40. Yes Canada OK'd recreational MJ use and will be nationwide soon. Still hammering out the details ie advertising etc.


  41. like clockwork ;-(


  42. That went about as well as can be expected. 

    Looks like the indexes have been grinding back to flat – but not too exciting.

    Very tempting to short /ES into the weekend at 2,780 as Trump has two chances to start WWIII over the next few days.  If not with our former allies, then with NoKo!

    Canada/Pirate – It's going to be interesting.  Expect tourism to go up from US.  

    • via Coinbase
    • The Moscow Stock Exchange is developing a platform for publishing token sale data and plans to introduced it later this year, according to a Reuters report published in Russian.
    • It's also working on a possible structure for futures products for initial coin offerings.
    • Previously: SEC posts mock ICO website to point out signs of scams (May 16)
    • China's yuan-denominated exports yuan rose 3.2% Y/Y in May, almost keeping pace with April's revised 3.5% gain.
    • Yuan-denominated imports rose 15.6% Y/Y, up from 11.6% growth in April, resulting in a trade surplus of 156.51B yuan.
    • But the export outlook is being clouded by a heated trade dispute with the United States, which could disrupt its shipments and supply chains, while a cooling property market may curb China's demand for imported raw materials such as iron ore.
    • Source: Investing.com
    • German industrial output and exports fell in April by 1% compared to the forecast of 0.3%, adding to signs that Europe's largest economy started the second quarter on a weak footing.
    • Industrial output, orders, and exports have fallen in three of the first four months of the year attributing to long public holidays, cold weather and flu epidemics.
    • Source: Investing.com

    • The total U.S. rig count gained 2 to 1,062, continuing to slow its buildup following last week's increase of just 1, Baker Hughes reports in its latest weekly survey.
    • Oil rigs added 1 to 862, extending a multiyear high, while gas rigs also gained 1 to 198 and two rigs remained classified as miscellaneous.
    • GBH Insights maintains an Attractive rating on Tesla (TSLA +0.9%) on signs of manufacturing improvement.
    • 'We are starting to see some clear rays of sunshine as the trifecta of Model 3 production ramps, ASP increases on Model 3, and the chances of a capital raise event moving into the background has given investors a clearer green light to own shares at current levels as some of the dark clouds are starting to dissipate," writes analyst Daniel Ives.
    • "To reflect our increased confidence on the Model 3 production situation ramping and a reduced cash burn situation on the horizon with black clouds starting to dissipate, we are raising our price target from $320 to $375," he adds.
    • General Electric (GE +0.7%moves higher for simply maintaining the status quo: paying out a $0.12 dividend for another quarter despite concerns that it would get cut.
    • GE shares sank more than 7% on May 23 when CEO John Flannery failed to provide a definitive answer to an analyst's question of whether he could "stand behind" the current dividend rate.
    • GE bear Stephen Tusa at J.P. Morgan has frequently mentioned – even as recently as this week- that the company's need for cash could lead to a dividend cut.

    U.S. debuts "world's fastest" supercomputer from IBM

    • The U.S. Department of Energy debuts its IBM (IBM +0.1%) supercomputer today that it says is the fastest in the world, beating a Chinese machine that’s held the top place for two years. A U.S. computer last held the top spot over six years ago.  
    • The supercomputer dubbed Summit can perform 200,000 trillion calculations/second, according to IBM, or 200 petaflops. That’s eight times more powerful than Cray’s (CRAY +1.3%) Titan supercomputer and nearly twice as fast as the peak speed for Chinese supercomputer Sunway TaihuLight.
    • Summit is housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee (the same location as Titan), incorporates technology from Nvidia (NVDA -0.6%), and cost about $200M.
    • Summit’s uses will include applying machine learning to genetic data to find patterns for treatments for Alzheimer’s, heart disease, and opioid addiction and to study supernovas.
    • The next global ranking of the 500 fastest scientific computers comes on June 25. As of November, China held 202 of the spots compared to 143 for the United States.   
    • Previously: Cray, IBM up after DOE call for supercomputers (April 10)
    • Previously: Hewlett Packard Enterprise teams up for UK supercomputer project (April 16)

     


  43. Donald Trump’s G7 temper tantrum


  44. Putin: Cooperation with China at “unprecedented level”





  45. Investors Sentiment is as high as it was in Feb – just before a 10% correction.


  46. A quick rundown of the six leaders meeting with Trudeau at the G7


  47. Deutsche Bank, other overseas banks fall as world leaders gather for G-7

    • Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) -2.4% as trade tensions haunt markets with world leaders heading to Canada for G-7 meetings.
    • President Trump, before leaving for the summit, warned via Twitter that he'll focus on "unfair trade practiced against the United States."
    • No doubt, Deutsche Bank has its own problems without the threat of trade skirmishes dinging the global economy. Germany's largest bank replaced its CEO in April, announced about 7,000 job cuts last month, had its U.S. unit named a "troubled bank" by the FDIC, and saw its credit rating cut by S&P.
    • Among other overseas banks on the decline: Spain's Banco Santander (SAN -0.8%), India's ICICI Bank (IBN -2%)and HDFC Bank (HDB -2.2%), U.K.'s Lloyds Banking (LYG -1.3%) and Barclays (BCS -0.8%),  and Switzerland's Credit Suisse (CS -0.8%) and UBS Group (UBS-0.7%).
    • Previously: Deutsche Bank shorts reach 13-month high on U.S. unit woes: Bloomberg (June 1)
    • Contradicting conventional wisdom, J.P. Morgan says crude oil prices are heading for a downturn later this year and will sink even lower next year as supply and demand fundamentals weaken.
    • "While geopolitical tensions and lingering risks of large supply disruptions remain an upside risk throughout 2H18, we think that prices will be corrected downwards towards end of the year and remain capped in 2019," JPM says as it cuts its 2018 crude forecast for WTI by $3 to $62.20/bbl and to $58.25/bbl for 2019; the firm leaves its 2018 Brent outlook unchanged at $69.30/bbl while trimming its 2019 forecast by $1 to $63/bbl.
    • However, "there might be one last hurrah (upside) when it comes to prices especially if OPEC were to announce a release of barrels which is less than what markets have priced in currently," JPM says.
    • In today's trade, WTI -0.3% to settle at $65.74 while Brent -1.2% at $76.40.
    • Capacity concerns are "tremendously unwarranted" as the cruise line industry is in year two of record demand, with the strongest booking momentum in its history, says analyst Ivan Feinseth.
    • Revenue and yield growth, higher dividend, share buybacks – what's not to like about Carnival (NYSE:CCL)?
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Shares are down about 9% this year. They're lower by 0.9% today.
    • Japan has approved around 150 Airbnb (AIRB) listings ahead of a new law next week that requires hosts to register with the government, among other rules and restrictions.
    • Earlier this year, Airbnb had 62,000 listings in Japan. The number has dropped almost 80% to 13,800. 
    • Homeowners have submitted 724 home-sharing applications to the government, but only 152 of those were approved. Approved applications can only home-share 180 days a year. 
    • Airbnb says that the government ordered it at the beginning of the month to cancel reservations made before the law went into force. Airbnb had previously said it would remove listings without approval by June 14. 

     


  48. I think /NG was as low as it's going to go at $2.88.  /NGV8 is just crossing $2.90 so I like that long again with a tight stop below the line.  Making 0.05 on that is a nice $500 per contract.


  49. Keep in mind that's only 0.01 more for the Oct contract, so a good deal and we get an early spin on the hurricane wheel with the Oct contracts!


  50. Have a great weekend folks!

    - Phil


  51. U2 Phil and PSW!


  52. Obviously I am the perfect pupil. I show all of my mistakes and allow the professor ample opportunity to correct me and show the others how it should be done correctly…I still need work on portfolio planning and hedging obviously…


  53.  Please don’t be put off If I turn one of your questions into a “teaching moment”, that just means it was a good question.


  54. MAGA:

    https://www.engadget.com/2018/06/08/summit-supercomputer-research-ai-oak-ridge/

    The Department of Energy pulled back the curtain on the world's most powerful supercomputer Friday. When Summit is operating at max capacity, it can run at 200 petaflops — that's 200 quadrillion calculations per second. That smokes the previous record holder, China's Sunway TaihuLight (which has a 93 petaflop capacity). Summit is also about seven times faster than Titan, the previous US record holder which is housed at the same Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee. For perspective, in one hour, Summit can solve a problem that it would take a desktop computer 30 years to crack.

    Of course, planned years ago… That thing is so fast he will do an infinite loop in less than a minute :-)

    It's meant to also work on climate change study which is strange because obviously not needed.




  55. Special report: A new era of global trade wars


  56. Windowless planes might soon become reality



  57. Teenager from Iowa killed after ICE returns him to Mexico


  58. Trump is no joke


  59. Should you be worried about Social Security and Medicare?



  60. Trump’s Blasts Upend G-7, Alienating Oldest Allies



  61. Big summit meeting in Singapore on June 12. 

    Comforting to know that Ambassador Rodman will be there.


  62. any thoughts on what will happen tomorrow after the Donald???


  63. I'm going to be very surprised if the markets don't tank this evening but, then again – they've been ignoring everything else that goes on.  Maybe before they thought it was all talk and things would work out.  Clearly, that's not the case.


  64. Hey Phil, bitcoin finally fell below your target.


  65. $1,000?    I think I’d take a toss on five at that price…  

    Markets are opening lower, but not too much so far. We’ll have to see how it goes.


  66. My bad.  I thought you said some time ago you were interested in bitcoin below $7k


  67. No, still too rich for my blood.  We bought ours for $650 and I thought that was a bit silly at the time so $1,000 is a big concession for me!

    Indexes down about 0.3% so far.

    I don't see Gold, Silver or the Dollar moving so maybe people are shrugging off the G7 breaking up?


  68. Honey badger market for the last 9+ years!


  69. Good morning!

    Wow,  so glad I wasn’t betting on the indexes!   

    This market shakes off anything…

    Fed hike Weds but so what, I guess.  



  70. Trump’s ‘Bully’ Attack on Trudeau Outrages Canadians



  71. This is how a country like America loses its mind.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/6/9/1770260/-Message-to-my-history-teacher-whom-I-once-asked-why-no-one-stopped-concentration-camps-NEVER-MIND

    I have said it before. The Handmaid’s Tale was not supposed to be an Instruction Manual.


  72. A reminder to the world of who and what Trump really is



  73. Robert De Niro bleeped at Tony Awards for Trump F-bomb