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What Now Wednesday? Powell Disappoints, Mnuchin Makes Promises…

Wheeee, what a ride! 

As we expected, Powell's speech yesterday was a disappointment and the Dow fell 200 points during Tuesday's session and you can see why we're using the DXD ETF as one of our primary hedges.  We stayed down overnight but, early this morning (about 5am) Steve Mnuchin jumped on CNBC at midnight in Bharain to tell Hadley Gamble that the US and China were "90% of the way there" on the path to a trade deal.

This is, of course, meaningless nonsense as we're the same 90% of the way there as we were when trade negotiations broke down a few months ago so Mnuchin is simply tearing a page out of Chamberlian's book to declare "Peace in our Time" to score points at home, no matter how untrue the facts of the matter are.  Still the market responds like Pavlov's dogs EVERY time someone in the administration says we are making progress on trade, and this morning was no different with the Dow Futures (/YM) popping over 100 points (0.4%) on the "news", we get a rally.  

Image result for trump xi trade cartoon

We had the same "good news" at the last G20 meeting in December, when the headlines were: "Donald Trump and Xi Jinping declare trade truce at G20" yet here we are, 7 months later with even more tariffs and even less progress.  We were 100% then, we're 90% now – what exactly is the market celebrating?

Certainly it wasn't the Data as we had TERRIBLE numbers from the Richmond Fed, New Home Sales missed by 10% and Consumer Confidence dove 10% in Expectations and 8.3% overall.  Consumer Confidence is now at a 2-year low while Economorons predicted it would be higher – which shows you how clueless the people making pronouncements on this economy truly are!  

As you can see from the chart, forward expectations (red) re now lower than they were when Trump took office in January of 2017.  If we see the other segments move lower to join them, then we really have to question:

  • 700 (31%) S&P points we added from 2,250
  • 6,500 (32.5%) Dow points from 20,000
  • 2,590 (52%) points we added to the Nasdaq (Composite) from 5,000
  • 1,740 (15.5%) points we added to the NYSE from 11,200 
  • 150 (11%) points we added to the Russell from 1,375

Notice the last two indexes are up less than half of the Dow and the S&P and the Nasdaq is simply off in LaLa Land and the NYSE and the Russell are the broadest indexes with 2,800 and 2,000 companies respectively represented while the S&P and Dow are both manipulated constantly by eliminating under-performing companies from their much smaller samplings (500 and 30) and the Nasdaq (100) is really just the AAPLdaq +99 and AAPL is 80 points from $115 back in Jan 2017 and that's 69.5% – so there's where those gains are coming from on the Nasdaq (and also a big Dow and S&P contributor).  

So we have this gigantic house of market cards we have built up over two years of broken promises and policies from the Trump administration and we're in a Trade War with the rest of the World and on the verge of actual war with Iran and Consumers are getting very worried and, just this morning, May Durable Goods had another big miss – down 1.3% vs -0.5% expected and that's coming off -2.8% in April which is revised EVEN LOWER than the -2.1% we thought really sucked at the time

 

Will investors ever wake up and begin to question these sky-high market valuations or will the Fed promise us more free money and the Administration declare peace in our time again and we can pretend everything is OK again?  I call this the "Phuket Market" which can best be described as if your family was about to go bankrupt and lose your home so Mom and Dad decide to take the family to Disney and max out the credit cards because – Phuket!

We will discuss this further during this afternoon's Live Trading Webinar (1pm, EST).

 


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  1. Good morning, All! It's webinar day! Join Phil at 1pm here:

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4262407857924006413



  2. Every single time the markets takes a tumble they come back with that China deal… I won't believe we have a deal until I hear about it from the Chinese side. It's such a sad situation that they have more credibility than our own administration.


  3. deal/Stj, turns out CNBC and Bloomberg misreported what Mnuchin said, "Correction: Earlier headlines were revised to correct that Mnuchin was using past tense when he described 90% progress in U.S.-China talks."    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/mnuchin-says-us-china-trade-deal-was-90-percent-complete.html

    we each can decide if this was a journalistic mistake or fake news


  4. LOL! I think that these people know perfectly what they are doing. 





  5. A grim border drowning underlines peril facing many migrants


  6. Mueller to testify to Congress in open session about his investigation









  7. Good Morning!


  8. I listened to a very interesting interview on realvision with Benn Eifert, on how volatility markets have changed.  It is behind a paywall, or I would have linked it, but I think many of you guys will benefit from the discussion.  The key take away for me, is how much more crowded the short volatility trade is than ever before, and its impact on option pricing.  Especially in the last few years.  Big institutions (pension funds, insurance companies etc) have apparently put big money behind covered call strategies in recent years, and now that the trade has become so much more crowded, the pricing has gotten really thin, and does not compensate you enough for the upside risk.  Many market makers and volatility funds have switched to buying up a lot of these underpriced option contracts.  I know we all have seen the statistics about superior risk premium that options typically have, but that may not be the case anymore, at least not in the aggregate.  They also opined that the fact that there has been such cheap insurance available, might have provided additional support for equity prices, since funds can leverage up, and protect against a disaster with cheap insurance.  


  9. Bitcoin and GBTC up big.  Sold the last of my GBTC up 70%.

    But only a small piece.


  10. Back to 2008 in Zimbabwe as Currency That Wrecked Lives Returns


  11. Wall Street’s Response to AbbVie Deal Undercuts CEOs’ Pitch



  12. How the asteroid-mining bubble burst


  13. MU up 12% on better than expected results.  Forecast mixed.




  14. Good morning! 

    Things are gyrating but staying positive so far.  

    Big Chart looks double toppy as of yesterday but reversing half the losses today would fix that.

    Fake news/Mike – CNBC is not news, it's propaganda for the IBanks.

    There's an article above about Razer dropping an influencer because she tweeted "men are trash" and, in my daughter's HS, this yearbook entry caused a shitstorm:

    Image result for passaic valley yearbook

    I thought it was funny – we always used to write strange things in our yearbooks but now you're not even allowed to joke about stuff?  Am I wrong?  The FBI is now involved and this poor kid got his admission to college rescinded over this.

    This is a smart, nice kid and, if you think about it, it's the OUTRAGE that is RACIST since what is actually wrong with a Muslim kid having the ambition of getting past TSA without being stopped – that is, sadly, a commentary on his life.  His secret ambition is "to become a pilot" – not to kill people – that's what's being assumed by racist assholes who read this and yes, that was his intention when he wrote it but he's more calling attention to that situation and making a social statement at this very important moment in his life.  

    Same goes for thanking Allah – WTF happened to freedom of religion in this country?  Mosques are randomly searched by the police and officers often drop by at their prayer services – that's just blatant intimidation of their religion.  There's more shootings at churches than mosques but when was the last time you were patted down on the way into Sunday mass?

    Volatility/Palotay – Here's a free link.  Good point on cheap insurance.  

    Nicely played, Albo.  

    MU/Albo - That's great as we just pushed more bullish in the LTP! 

    Submitted on 2019/06/19 at 11:58 am

    • MU – We're going to take advantage of the big pullback to buy back the short callers, both the Jan $55s with a $4,445 profit and the 2021 $55s with a $16,820 profit and then we will wait for a bounce to sell covers – see how that happens?

    In the OOP, we stood pat as we didn't have as much money to toss around but looking like we can get back on track again.

    MU Long Call 2021 15-JAN 40.00 CALL [MU @ $36.70 $4.02] 20 2/15/2019 (569) $23,400 $11.70 $-4.48 $11.70     $7.23 $2.13 $-8,950 -38.2% $14,450
    MU Short Call 2021 15-JAN 55.00 CALL [MU @ $36.70 $4.02] -20 2/15/2019 (569) $-13,200 $6.60 $-3.35     $3.25 $1.02 $6,700 50.8% $-6,500
    MU Short Put 2021 15-JAN 33.00 PUT [MU @ $36.70 $4.02] -10 2/15/2019 (569) $-4,800 $4.80 $0.80     $5.60 $-1.43 $-800 -16.7% $-5,600

    These are just leftovers as we originally had a spread we cashed in Dec and we added this spread so we could wait for the short calls lose value (cashed out late Dec) and then we sold puts on these with the intention to roll down to a better spread, but we never did.  The MU 2021 $30s are $12 so $5 ($10,000) to roll down to those in 2021 and we can sell 7 of the Jan $40s for $4 ($2,800) to mitigate the cost and rolling the 20 short 2021 $55 calls at $3.25 to 20 short 2021 $45 calls at $5.60 pays us $4,700 so net $2,500 to roll our long calls $20,000 lower in strike (and into the money) is a good move for the OOP.


  15. Short /CL.


  16. Phil/nice kid  Sorry Phil, but where were the adults before this went to print? Regardless of Freedom of Anything, these comments may show the true character of this kid and I would have to think twice before offering a job or admission to him. His experience with the TSA is unfortunate, but using a yearbook entry to make a highly controversial statement is just 'plane' dumb….. :(


  17. Phil I am holding 900 shares of KHC bought at 49.90 now 30.70 down just over 17K Thinking of selling the stock at about 27,700 and buying a BCS  Jan21 25/35 for 4.70 x 40 = 18.865.00 so getting back 8,800.00 out of the stock sale less the cost of the BCS.

    Now in the Hope of the stock should go up to 35 by Jan21 not counting any shorter call sales I would get out of the BCS about 9K plus the 8.8K left from the stock sale should make up my 17K loss.

    Do you thing the stock will ever go up to 35? And what do you think about the play?


  18. /CL – Stops to entry on this 15 point move.


  19. Closed out one /CL up 22 points.


  20. Phil just to correct I should get out of the BCS at 35 18K and not 9K


  21. Out at entry on /CL.  Only had two.



  22. ….and stated "We had no idea"…Nice job, Mom and Dad.


  23. Forgot all about EIA as it came out late for some reason:

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -12.8M barrels vs. -2.4M consensus, -3.1M last week.
    • Gasoline -1M barrels vs. +0.3M consensus, -1.7M last week.
    • Distillates -2.4M barrels vs. +0.5M consensus, -0.6M last week.
    • Futures +2.9% to $59.46.

    Even bigger draw than API, we'll take a look at the detailed report in the Webinar.  

    Adults/1020 – Well it's not too likely the yearbook supervisor read every single entry the kids made and, again, the individual responses are not "highly controversial" a white quarterback could be named the bomb and want to be the pilot – though I doubt it would make sense if he were worried about getting through TSA or worried about the FBI watching his every word (surprise, they were!).  Sure he doesn't have the right to joke about his situation in the land where the First Amendment to our Constitution is:

    Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

    I guess when the President leads chants of "Lock them up" directed at the Press – that whole thing is out the window…

    "These people are sick," he continued. "All of the Democrat politicians, the media bosses, bad people. … crooked journalists, the totally dishonest TV pundits. … And all the current and former officials who paid for, promoted, and perpetuated the single greatest hoax in the history of politics in our country. They have to be — I am sorry, they have to be accountable."

    The crowd chanted a solution for that: "Lock them up!"

    KHC/Yodi – And now GIS had a poor report, the whole sector is weak.  $35 does not seem very ambitions for 18 months and we're still waiting for the new CEO to take over but they should make $3Bn+ on a $37.5Bn valuation at $30.90 so very reasonably priced down here.  I'd sell 10 2021 $30 puts for $4.30 ($4,300) as you won't be worse off than you are now if assigned and the $25/35 bull call spread is about $5 so 20 pays $20,000 against a $5,700 net entry – that gets most of the loss back with room to spare or, of course, you could be more aggressive but only if you don't mind DD and roll – just in case it drops more with the market.

    I would not be surprised to see Buffett take them out at $40, that's almost $50Bn but if he believes he can spend another $20Bn and wipe out the debt, then KHC drops $3Bn in Income, $3Bn in Dividends, and $1.3Bn in interest payments to the bottom line for Berkshire so $7.3Bn back annually on $70Bn invested is about right for BRK/A, who have $112Bn sitting in cash at the moment and need to find a big but conservative deal.  

    Good, quick profit-taking Albo.


  24. /RB $1.96!

    • Philadelphia Energy Solutions will permanently shut its oil refinery within the next month after last week's massive fire caused substantial damage to the complex, says Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney.
    • Spot market wholesale gasoline prices in the New York Harbor surged ~$0.053/gal on the news, and futures prices spiked ~$0.07/gal, or 3.6%.
    • The refinery had struggled financially for years and went through a bankruptcy process last year to reduce debt, but cash on hand continued to fall even after it emerged from bankruptcy in August; Credit Suisse and Bardin Hill became the controlling owners, with former primary owners Carlyle Group (CG +0.3%) and Energy Transfer (ET +1.5%) subsidiary Sunoco Logistics holding minority stakes.
    • Refining stocks are rallying, but oil analyst Tom Kloza says east coast pump prices should rise no more than $0.05/gal, as the loss of supply will be made up from elsewhere, including the Gulf Coast, Europe and Canada, since the entire world is well supplied.
    • PBF +4.6%VLO +3.7%MPC +3.7%PSX +3.3%HFC +0.3%.
    • Norway's oil and gas production could be disrupted starting Friday as 1,600 offshore workers are threatening strike action.
    • The impact on production is unclear, but the Asgard C, Knarr and Statfjord C facilities are among those affected, as is the Johan Sverdrup development project, S&P Global Platts reports.
    • A total of 15 floating installations, most of them at fields operated by Equinor (EQNR +2.5%), could be affected, according to oil workers union Industri Energi.
    • Other companies producing oil and gas offshore Norway include Eni (NYSE:E), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Lundin Petroleum (OTCPK:LNDNY), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM)
    • U.S. crude prices extend previous gains after EIA data showed domestic stockpiles plunged 12.8M barrels for the week ended June 21, the biggest weekly decline since a 14.5M-barrel draw in September 2016; WTI +3.5% to $59.83/bbl, Brent +2.7% at $66.81/bbl.
    • Analyst consensus from S&P Global Platts had anticipated a decline of 2.8M barrels in U.S. crude stocks.
    • Oil prices already were higher amid simmering tensions between Iran and the U.S. as well as last week's shutdown of the east coast's largest gasoline refinery, Philadelphia Energy Solutions.

    Not sure what they mean by turns negative as we've been negative (below 100) all year. 

    • The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2 real GDP growth at 1.9%, down from 2.0% on June 18.
    • Contributions of net exports revised to -0.38 percentage points from 0 and inventory investment contribution revised to -0.80 pp from -1.04 pp.
    • Previously: Durable goods disappoint (June 26)

    Well the hits just keep on coming, right?

    • Wedbush's Daniel Ives says this morning's positive US-China comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin could end up removing a major overhang for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
    • Mnuchin said the countries are "about 90% there" towards a trade deal and indicated positive news could come out of the Trump-Xi meeting at this weekend's G20 summit.
    • Ives writes that the Street has been factoring in the worst case trade scenario for Apple with the stock currently reflecting longer-term risk of a potential $2 EPS loss.
    • Wedbush thinks resolved trade tensions could add $20 to $25 per share to Apple in the coming months.
    • The firm maintains an Outperform rating and $235 PT.
    • Apple shares are up 2.2% to $199.89.
    • Apple has a Very Bullish Quant rating.
    • Mazda Motor (OTCPK:MZDAY), Suzuki Motor (OTCPK:SZKMY), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Daihatsu Motor (OTCPK:DHTMYOTC:DHTMF) and Isuzu Motors (OTCPK:ISUZFOTCPK:ISUZY) are set to join a self-driving venture between SoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBYOTCPK:SFTBF) and Toyota (NYSE:TM).
    • Honda (NYSE:HMC) already joined the Monet Technologies self-driving venture in March.
    • Monet is planning to export a basic version of its on-demand self-driving service platform in Southeast Asia as a simple transportation service or airport shuttle system. The company has long-term plans to introduce on-demand bus and car services in Japan. Eventually, Monet's global ambitions could place it in competition with SoftBank portfolio companies (Uber Technologies, Didi Chuxing, Grab/Ola and GM's Cruise).
    • A group of fund managers is banding together to organize a series of private conferences where their analysts get to meet CEOs of the companies in which they invest, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the matter.
    • That threatens millions of dollars that Wall Street banks make each year for introducing their investor clients to the managers in whose companies they own stock.
    • Fidelity Investments, Capital Group, Wellington Management, T. Rowe Price Group (TROW+0.1%), and Norway's government fund are planning such conferences on their own, the people told the WSJ.
    • The conference being organized by the five firms could threaten popular conferences hosted by banks including Barclays (BCS +1.3%) and Bank of America (BAC +0.9%).
    • Corporate access has been one of the few cash cows left for banks and their research arms as companies increasingly borrow straight from loan funds, without hiring a bank to underwrite and place the debt. Also, solo advisers help them design complex derivatives for much less that what Goldman Sachs (GS +0.6%) or JPMorgan Chase (JPM +1.2%) would charge.
    • weak performance by General Mills (GIS -8.2%) in the North America snacks business is dragging on the food sector.
    • J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM) is off 3.13%, McCormick & Company (NYSE:MKC) is down 2.55%, Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) is 2.39% lower, Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) is down 1.41% and Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG) is showing a 1.16% decline.
    • Investors may be taking a defensive position with Conagra and McCormick both due to report earnings of their own tomorrow.
    • In an interview on Fox Business Network, President Trump said Vietnam is an "abuser", in response to a question about production relocating to Vietnam from China after U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods.
    • He also noted that "almost all nations" are abusers.
    • Barclays (BCS +1.2%) and Annaly Capital Management (NLY -0.1%) release a new joint-study that suggests steps policymakers could take to reform Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC -0.8%) and Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA -1%) and eventually release them from government control.
    • Four main takeaways from the report:
    1. A revolving credit-risk transfer structure could enable the GSEs to shed credit risk on most future production, which would avoid execution risk while protecting the taxpayer;
    2. To attract private capital, the GSEs could shrink their presence in areas that aren't part of their core mandate, such as second homes, investor, and jumbo mortgages; by pricing such loans without factoring in the advantages of the government backstop, the private sector would be able to compete;
    3. To create more competition, Congress needs to tackle the complicated task of passing legislation that replaces the GSE duopoly with multiple smaller guarantors;
    4. GSE reform must provide a smooth transition path from the current system to an alternative one with more private capital and less government involvement; GSEs have "enormous advantages" over new entrants in terms of infrastructure, market share, and the implied government backstop; an overriding goal of GSE reform legislation must be to level the playing field to the extent possible, the report says.
    • Broadcom (AVGO +1.9%) is facing a European Union investigation into sales tactics for its components for modems and TV set-top boxes, and the EU is taking the step of pressing to force Broadcom to stop potentially illegal behavior before the probe's done.
    • Those are the first interim measures in 18 years, and the EU says it's taking that step because it believes Broadcom conduct could result in eliminating competition before it can wrap its examination.
    • Exclusivity clauses in Broadcom's contracts have resulted in seven major customers buying chips only from Broadcom.
    • The European Commission can levy fines of up to 10% of a company's global revenues.
    • Broadcom has two weeks to respond to the EU, and can request a closed-door hearing on the matter. It says so far the concerns are "without merit" and it's complying with EC rules.
    • Target (NYSE:TGT) is taking dead aim at Amazon Prime Day with its Target Deal Days event overlapping on July 15-16.
    • The retailer says deals on top national and only-at-Target brands will be offered across categories like home and apparel. Target also reminds that no membership is required.
    • Last year, Target generated one of its biggest online sales days of the year with a one-day sale that competed directly with Amazon Prime Day.
    • In general, retail analysts see Amazon, Target and Walmart increasing market share during the July shopping event at the expense of smaller chains.
    • TGT +1.26% premarket to $86.78.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Eldorado Resorts (NASDAQ:ERI) is prepared to exit one of its four casinos in Atlantic City in order to win over regulators, sources tell New York Post.
    • Bally's is being mentioned as the most likely to be either sold, closed or converted into a hotel overflow for Caesars Atlantic City Hotel & Casino.
    • Shares of Eldorado are up 1.0% in premarket trading with a positive note from Union Gaming in the mix. Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) is 0.70% higher.
    • Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) says its Beyond Beef product will hit retail shelves nationwide later this week.
    • Beyond Beef is described as a new plant-based ground meat made without GMOs, soy or gluten.
    • The company says Beyond Beef is designed to be used in the same recipes as traditional ground beef and is packed with 20 grams of protein per 4 ounce serving at only 25% the saturated fat level than traditional ground beef. Most taste tests from consumer review sites have come in positive.
    • Shares of Beyond Meat are up 4.98% premarket, despite already jumping 9% off last week's preliminary report that Beyond Beef would be sold at several grocery chains including Whole Foods, Wegmans, HEB and Atlanta-area Kroger stores.
    • Source: Press Release

    Image result for synthehol

     

    Webinar time!


  25. Thanks Phil re KHC do you think I shall keep the stock and hold for better days?


  26. p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; line-height: 21.0px; font: 13.0px Arial; color: #3c3c3c; background-color: #e2eefa}
    span.s1 {font-kerning: none}

    Feel I should update about my option/margin saga .. maybe of interest to other Canadians though.

    After being told by InteractiveBrokers (IB) that they WOULD pair my L AAPL JAN’21 $140calls with my S AAPL JUNE’21 $200s (with minimal margin) and having therefore signed up online for an IB account, I am NOW told that because I’m Cdn, I must (and did) sign up with the Cdn part of IB which is bound by the IIROC option rules. So they must treat each leg separately ie the June $200s are considered naked shorts with similar mgn to TD (bcos the shorts expire after the longs). Fooey!

    Because they are considered separate trades, I suppose I could trade each part separately, no roll needed, and get the benefit of the daily swings with AAPL to move the short June’21 $200 calls back to Jan ’21 $200s (or maybe $210s?). Or, Phil, would you suggest selling the Jan ’21 $140s and moving to higher strike longs with June ’21 expiry, if I’m ready to take the cap gains hit (gotta do it sometime)?

    THX!

     


  27. Phil – It's apparent you know this kid. Now take a step back. Was this a smart move? Our yearbooks had plenty of silly stuff, mine had parodies and commentary, but we live in different times where now, we are encouraged "if you see something, say something" The FBI looking into this is just a sad commentary of where we are, but If they don't follow up and something happens, then what? I believe in free speech but I'd also like FOX news loaded into a rocket and shot into the sun… :)


  28. FYI TZA splits after market close tomorrow, if you own options and don't want the post-split mess get out and re-buy next week.


  29. GBTC – does anybody have thoughts on how to protect this crytpo position? It's up 250% since I switched over to it from QUIK. It has no options and I can't short /BTC to cover because it's in an IRA.


  30. gbtc – just sell it for cash. I'm out and seeing if it'll pullback. Looks frothy.


  31. Mr.M – Congratulations !   I remember your post in April

    Wish I had done the same.  Made a good trade in GBTC, but held on to my QUIK position

    BTW, things are finally coming together for QUIK,  but that was a masterful move on your part.

    Well done.  

     

       


  32. albo / QUIK – define "coming together", is there some favorable news? Chart isn't showing it…


  33. Just a heads up, I was able to renegotiate commission rates with TDA, in exchange for bringing another account over.  They gave me $0.65 per contract.  I have 7 figures with them now.


  34. Palotay- any ticket charge with that?


  35. bdc / GBTC – why your instinct to quit now? BTC chart is insane and seems to me with this madness would continue to 20K then bump resistance at prior high…


  36. NAK making a nice move as EPA says they will reconsider letting them wipe out Alaska's salmon in exchange for gold!  

    We have 20,000 shares in the LTP at 0.59 from April as we thought that was a bargain at the time.  OOP has 10,000 shares at $1.40 AND we sold the 2020 $2 puts for 0.95 so still a ways to go on that one.  

    Submitted on 2019/06/17 at 11:38 pm

    • NAK – We just need the GOP to strip a few more environmental regs and then we can strip mine Alaska and dump the sludge into the river where those annoying salmon like to swim – can't wait!  (if you can't beat 'em…)

    KHC/Yodi – My assumption is Buffett buys them for $37.50-40 so a nice, long-term hold but don't get caught with short calls – just in case. 

    Margin/Wing – Wow, that is complete BS!  I guess the simply solution is to roll them to the same month to erase the margin so either spending $4 to roll to June on the long calls or $3.50 to roll the short calls to Jan 2021.  I guess, on the whole, for 0.50, I'd rather collect my money sooner so you could look at lining up in 2021.  Also, since you will presumably be taking a loss on the short calls and not changing your long calls – I imagine it's a better tax outcome as well.

    Smart/1020 – Depends what he wants to do with his life.  If he really wants to be a pilot – that's probably off the table, as is most Government work and such but, if he wants to be a journalist or do TV comedy – the kid has my attention.  Also, it's a matter of principle and he wanted to make a social statement about his condition as a graduating high school student in a surveillance state that's hostile to Muslims – I think he did that very effectively.  In exercising his right to PROTEST, he's probably the most patriotic kid in the class.  So, was it "smart"?  If he were my kid, I'd have a long discussion about the risks and repercussions of what he was planning to do but I wouldn't have stopped him – and I'd be damned proud I raised a kid who was willing to stand up to that kind of pressure for what he believed in.

    TZA/MrM – Yes, that split could get messy, we discussed strategies in the Webinar but the easiest thing is to get out and buy new ones next week – but don't forget to cover with SOMETHING over the G20 weekend. 

    GBTC/MrM – I'd cash out half and put a stop on the rest.  Congrats.


  37. what I meant was cash is the only way to hedge it.

    Instinct wise, this run up is way too fast and too soon, but who knows.


  38. Phil

    Smart/1020

     

    HERE!  HERE!


  39. Bitcoin has made a parabolic move up.  It may go higher, but when it comes down, it'll be fast.

     I think Phil's advice is good to sell 1/2.  But what do I know?  I sold too early.

    QUIK has forecast that revenues will be up over 50% this year and I believe it's the beginning of what should be a multi-year ramp up.  So far their forecasts haven't come true.  But now they have some relationships with some very big companies.  They will report a down quarter in August, and then it should be clear sailing.  As you know I've been consistently wrong on this and paid a very high opportunity cost.  We'll see.


  40. Pstas – No ticket charge.


  41. Cash/BDC – I agree. 2.3% sounds amazing, we can go to Japan and borrow a Trillion at 1% and use that to lend to United Bank and make $13Bn a year!  What could possibly go wrong?

    BitCoin/Albo – Too early beats too late.  

    Well all red at the close except the Nas, which is up 0.25% thanks to AAPL up 2.2% so, without AAPL, would have been quite the disaster.


  42. bitcoin crashing over last 12 minutes. getting out of GBTC may have been the play


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