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TGIF – Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off!

ImageWhat a mess! 

All of our summer gains are completely wiped out – thanks to the Tweeter in Chief, who sent the markets flying lower by proclaiming additional tariffs on China after this week's meeting yeilded no progress.  Of course the meeting was just an excuse to place more tariffs as the US could hardly be serious taking a 14-hour flight to Beijing to have a 4-hour meeting and then not schedule the next one until September.  

This is just political theater aimed at dragging out the negotiations while Trump places more taxes on the American people to add to his re-election slush fund that lets him hand out "relief money" to his biggest donors.   Fortunately for Trump, as I pointed out Wednesday morning, his base is too dumb to know they are being robbed by the President, who confidently repeats the lie that China is paying these tariffs so often that it really is hard to keep a grip on reality.

Even by the President's own warped logic that China somehow magically pays for the tariff tax that is solely levied against US Citizens and Corporations, what about the retaliatory tariffs China has placed on US Goods?  Wouldn't that mean that we are paying for those?  Of course China makes no such claim because their people aren't idiots and, so far, China has "only" placed $113Bn worth of Tariffs on US goods but China last night said they will retaliate against Trump's new round of Tariffs.

As I've been saying since this began – this has nothing to do with China. Trump wants to tax the American people $125Bn to pay for the tax breaks he gave to his family and his Top 0.1% buddies and that's also why Trump was so gung-ho to ram a budget bill through that would raise the debt ceiling (and our debt) by $2.5Tn – BEFORE his tax breaks became an issue and were possibly repealed.  Now he's got his tax cut extended for 2 more year and the first thing he does is go out and place more tariffs because that's "found money" in his budget that he can then turn around and hand out as favors – this is all about keeping Trump in power and keeping Trump from paying taxes.

ImageClearly our economy is suffering as a result and, although you sure can't tell from the stock market – the labor market is heading for a tipping point as over 1 Million jobs are now on the chopping block over tariff issues and those are PLANNED cuts that haven't hit yet but will sharply impact the US into the end of the year.  

We have a Non-Farm Payroll Report this morning at 8:30 with about 170,000 jobs expected but those numbers have been all over the place so I'm not even going to hazard a guess.  Last Payroll came in at 224,000 but it was padded by a lot of Government hiring and the US Census will boost Government hiring for the rest of the year as huundreds of thousands of people are needed to count the other 300+M of us.  

8:30 Update:  164,000 jobs but it's a SCAM! as the prior two months were revised down by 40,000 jobs so June was actually 193,000 jobs, NOT the 224,000 jobs that rallied us from 26,900 on July 5th.  The scam in NFP reporting is that they "make up" (because they do not have all the data) a number on the first Friday of the month and, by the time they revise it two AND three months later (it takes that long to get all the numbers) – people hardly pay attention to the revisions BUT the revisions also afftec the current month because the Jobs Number reflects the change in total jobs so, by reducing the total jobs by 40,000 in the prior two months this morning, we turn a 120,000 net jobs gain this month into what looks like 164,000 net jobs gained this mornth but what we really did was add 120,000 jobs here and subtract 44,000 jobs there and give you the net total.  See – it's all BS!  

The great thing about the job number shuffle is that you can do it over and over again so next month, when they revise this month down from 164,000 to 114,000, it will make next month's 120,000 look like 170,000 and all you will remember is that 170,000 is about what you expected and you won't even realize there's a problem.  Don't worry, we all do it – humans are very easy to fool with numbers.  

We get Consumer Confidence numbers at 10 am but they should be strong because they are fooled by the same BS that everyone else is while, in fact, American's are only maintaining their existing lifestyles by piling up mountains of debt with Non-Housing Debt increasing by 35% in the past 5 years, now actually passing our debt on Housing, led by an incredible increase in Student Loans (now $1.7Tn) and Auto Loans ($1.25Tn).

The debt surge is partly by design, a byproduct of low borrowing costs the Federal Reserve engineered after the financial crisis to get the economy moving. It has reshaped both borrowers and lenders. Consumers increasingly need it, companies increasingly can’t sell their goods without it, and the economy, which counts on consumer spending for more than two-thirds of GDP, would struggle without a plentiful supply of credit.  

To some extent, the growing consumer debt is a vote of confidence in the future. People borrowing money today expect to have the income tomorrow to pay it back. Consumer debt tends to rise when borrowers feel secure in their jobs.  That's why high Consumer Confidence can be a double-edged sword because over-confident consumers borrow more than they should – which is why it's so dangerous for a President to lie to his people and tell them the economy is better than it actually is and why keeping rates artificially low is a ticking time bomb that is almost certain to destroy us down the road.  

And, of course, all this leads to massive increases in inequality as the Top 10% have grown their assets by 70% in the past 30 years and grown their debt by 25% trying to keep up with the Top 1% but the Bottom 90%, trying to keep up with the Top 10%, have grown their debts by 70% while growing their assets just 30%.  This isn't just losing the race – this is running the race to exhaustion and ending up much further behind than where you started:

What can you do about it?  Well, like Global Warming, this may be a problem that simply can no longer be fixed so my best advice to you is to make sure that you and your children stay out of the Bottom 90% – it sucks to be there now and it's only going to get worse – especially if rates rise on that $7,000,000,000,000 they borrowed a 3% rate increase on that is $200Bn a year in additional interest alone that will have to be paid if rates head back to a normal level – yet another tax on the poor that lines the pockets of the Top 1%.

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil

 


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  1. I would like to say that markets are possibly now reflecting the actual status of our economy but in fact they only reflect Trump's Twitter feed! He could post today that he had a constructive call with President Xi which no one in his sycophantic White House would deny and markets would be off to the races even absent validation! We live in a reality show!


  2. Barry's take on the rate cut:

    https://ritholtz.com/2019/07/todays-reckless-irresponsible-politically-motivated-fomc-rate-cut/

    Ask yourself: Why does “the greatest economy ever,” with a 3.8% unemployment rate and 21.54 million new jobs created since January 2010 (when the recession ended) even need a rate cut? [...]

    Which brings us back to the political motivations of today’s rate cut.

    Recall Trump complained earlier in the recovery that then Fed Chair Janet Yellen “should be ashamed” of low rates and that “the Fed has created a “false stock market.” Now, with the economy much further recovered, unemployment lower and inflation higher, he demands those low shameful rates.

    Hold Trump’s hypocrisy aside and recognize his modus operandi: He may be a terrible long-term strategist, but as we have seen over the past 5-years, he is a brilliant short-term tactician. The tax cuts he passed, and now these lower rates, both create great very short-term results.

    The problem is they are sugar highs, that leave you worse off then when you began. He will be gone in either 2 or 6 years, and the clean-up will be someone else’s problem. That’s his MO. And the damage he will have wrought will take a generation to repair.



  3. Some unbelievable numbers:

    https://ritholtz.com/2019/08/winner-takes-all-applies-to-stocks-too/

    Just 1.3 percent of the world’s public companies account for all the market gains during the past three decades. Outside the U.S., the gains are even more concentrated, with less than 1% of all equities driving all of the net appreciation in share prices.[...]

    Just five companies — Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.Com Inc., Alphabet Inc. (Google) and Exxon Mobil Corp. — accounted for 8.3% of global net wealth creation. It is hard to imagine a greater example of the winner-take-all distribution — these five companies account for just 0.008% of the total sample set of 62,000 publicly traded companies. Expand that to the top 0.5%, or 306 companies, and they account for 73% of global net wealth creation. The best performing 811 companies (1.33% of the total) accounted for all net global wealth creation.

    Let’s translate those percentages into dollar amounts: During that 1990-2018 period, those companies accounted for the entire net stock market appreciation of $44.7 trillion, in excess of Treasury returns. Outside the U.S., less than 1% of international equities generated $16 trillion in capital appreciation, also in excess of Treasury returns.

    Less than half of the stocks in the study — 23,905 — had cumulative positive returns. When added to the top gainers, these stocks generated $66.6 trillion of wealth. However, a majority of stocks — 37,195, or 60.9% — were net money losers, subtracting a $21.83 trillion from the total. The total gains of winners minus losers netted out to that $44.7 trillion figure.


  4. GLUU – Reported a very bad quarter and a dismal outlook for Q3 and Q4.  Stock down 37%.  

    Bought some at $4.78.


  5. Phil – You might recall that GLUU was a favorite trading stock of Optrader several years ago.  Was able to do quite well following his lead.  Have continued to trade it on my own with some success.  Stock down from $11.75 in April.  Love it down here, but very speculative !

    Also sold some Jan 5 puts.


  6. Good Morning!


  7. Whatever happened to Optrader?


  8. Phil/Hedge

    Is it a good time to go into the SQQQ hedge or the damage is already done?

    regards


  9. Good morning!  

    Europe is down at the 2.5% Rule, which is a huge move for a major index in one day so the pause there is just looking to see if we get a weak (0.5%) or strong (1%) bounce into the weekend.  So don't be fooled by our indexes – we're likely to catch up to them.

    Dollar dive is masking our weakness but you can see from the VIX that people are getting more worried, not less:

    China off, Copper down:

    Gold is flight to safety, Silver more industrial.

    Big Chart – Amazing how it goes from strong to weak.  It looked unbeatable just a few days ago and now the 50 dmas are threatened.  As StJ notes, it can all change with a tweet but that's the danger I keep warning about when pointing out that low-volume rallies have very little support on the downside and are subject to violent corrections.   There simply aren't enough interested buyers to support these prices when volume selling kicks in.

    Generation to repair/StJ – That's a good point but no surprise.  He's running the country the way he ran his casinos and, when we go bankrupt – he'll blame whoever is in charge at the time and claim that, had he stayed on, this never would have happened.  

    TRENTON -- With the Trump Taj Mahal poised to become fifth Atlantic City casino to shutter in two years, a new report by the Washington Post suggests Donald Trump blames his failures in the resort town on Trump executives who were killed in a freak helicopter crash in 1989.

    Trump Casino Hotel CEO Steve Hyde, 43, Trump Taj Mahal president Mark Etess, 38, and Taj Mahal executive VP Jonathan Benanav, 33, were all killed when their chartered helicopter crashed in pine woodlands near Forked River on Oct. 10, 1989.

    Days later, Trump elevated John 'Jack' O'Donnell, the chief operating officer of Trump Plaza Hotel & Casino in Atlantic City, to president.

    "Only because he was the only one standing, I put Jack O'Donnell in there," recounted Trump in audio segments released online Friday from the Post's May 2016 interview with Trump, who called O'Donnell "a third-rate executive."

    In an video interview with the Post, however, O'Donnell recalled that Trump had "panic" in his voice about the future of the casinos before the funerals of the executives had even occurred.

    "Donald was beginning to have an immense amount of pressure from the banks, bondholders, investors," recounted O'Donnell in a 2016 interview with the Post.

    The Trump Plaza's revenues suffered a sharp decline in 1990 due to competition from its newly opened sister property, the Trump Taj Mahal.

    "There was this constant need to take as much cash out of the business as possible on a monthly basis, to service other debts," explained O'Donnell. "There was, in the back of my mind, 'How are we going to plan the future of this company if we're just going to take the cash out of it?'"

    As problems mounted, Trump blamed the casinos' failures on the decisions of the deceased executives in the press.

    O'Donnell said he pleaded with Trump not to use "the convenient excuse, that he could blame two dead men for his problems with all of his other investments."  Trump refused, and O'Donnell said he resigned as a result; Trump said he was fired.

    A year after the helicopter crash, the Trump Taj Mahal was nearly $3 billion in debt and went bankrupt in 1991. In 1992, both the Trump Plaza and the Trump Castle declared bankruptcy as well.

    Trump has dismissed O'Donnell as a "disgruntled former employee."

    "I am a very disgruntled former employee," O'Donnell told the Post.

    "I didn't like working somebody who would blame dead men for his problems…I didn't like anything about his character as it developed over time there. I didn't like anything morally about him. I got to know he was just a facade. This wasn't a brilliant businessman."

    Days of future past, unfortunately.  





  10. Prior to his departure, Optrader indicated his growing outside business interests required more of his time. Was sorry to see him go as he had unique trading instincts plus solid risk management discipline. Learned a lot from him. 


  11. Winston – Optrader left several years ago and has opened a number of wine bars in California.


  12. Pstas – FWIW

     

    Glu Mobile: Color on Quarter  (7.59)

    The Benchmark Company lowers their GLUU tgt to $8 from $14. GLUU delivered solid F1Q19 performance, with bookings from its growth game portfolio exceeding their expectations. However, GLUU initiated a disappointing F3Q19 guide and greatly reduced its FY19 outlook, reflecting the move out of Disney Sorcerer's Arena, a weaker than anticipated performance from WWE Universe and higher marketing spend related to supporting the growth of the recently released Diner DASH Adventures. The Company's current growth strategy is heavy on new game releases, which can often disappoint performance expectations. GLUU's had strong success in M&A, where proven assets can be acquired and be immediately accretive. Unfortunately they do not see any near term pivot to being more opportunistic over potential deal flow. Additionally, they do not believe GLUU plans to repurchase shares, which is unfortunate, in their view.

    Wedbush cuts tgt to $8; Cowen cuts tgt to $9 from $11


  13. GLUU- Albo, did very well trading this issue. Have not followed it for quite a while now so maybe worth another look for a rebound. 

    What is your take?


  14. Rate cuts/StJ – I think that's like saying that patients with a loss of blood from accidents responded well to transfusions while this time we're trying to jam 2 more pints of blood into a patient who only has the flu – it's silly to expect similar results when you are treating the a different problem with the same solution.

    Winner take all is a great point, a function of monopolization and concentration of wealth.  We are simply becoming a Global Oligarchy and the Oiligarchs are taking power everywhere we look yet the people are amazingly passive about it.

    GLUU/Albo – Been a while since they had a hot title.  Made 0.02 for the Q so 0.08 for the year doesn't make $4.78 ($650M) a bargain.  I think the projections are ridiculous given the reality of quarterly earnings. 

    Year End 31st Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TTM 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 105.6 223.1 249.9 200.6 286.8 366.6 381 446.4 520.3 +28.3%
    Operating Profit $m -22.8 2.07 -6.30 -78.8 -91.5 -12.4 -5.56      
    Net Profit $m -19.9 8.15 -7.19 -87.4 -97.6 -13.2 -5.33 56.9 82.8  
    EPS Reported $ -0.28 0.084 -0.060 -0.66 -0.98 -0.093 -0.038      
    EPS Normalised $ -0.27 0.087 -0.055 -0.65 -0.95 -0.092 -0.038 0.34 0.50  
    EPS Growth %                 +45.2  
    PE Ratio x           n/a n/a 22.1 15.2  
    PEG x           n/a n/a 0.49 0.44
    Profitability

    Glu reported net income of $2.5 million, or 2 cents a share, on sales of $95.5 million, up from $90.2 million. Glu reported bookings, a more inclusive revenue metric, of $101.9 million, all of which was roughly in line with guidance and analysts' expectations. But Glu also sharply decreased its annual bookings guidance, to a range of $406 million to $410 million after previously projecting $445 million to $455 million. "We revised our annual guidance primarily to reflect the timing of new launches, contribution from newly launched titles and incremental UA investment to take advantage of favorable ROI opportunities," Chief Financial Officer Eric Ludwig said in a release. 

    The revenue cut cuts all the profits – I very much doubt that costs change significantly on less revenues – very speclulative indeed.  

    Optrader/Winston – He retired from trading as his other business took off.  

    SQQQ/Pat – Well if it's a hedge then you want insurance against a 20% drop in the market and, so far, QQQ has pulled back from $195 to $185 (5%) to the 50 dma and the 200 dma is at $175 so 10% down there and $155 is 20% down and would simply mirror the move above the 200 dma with an equal move below it – not at all surprising if it happens.  

    As it happens, the LTP dropped 20% in the last two days, losing about $100,000 in value to $1,454,990 while the STP has gained 60% to $763,438 for a total of $2,218,428 so we're down $66,572 since our 7/19 reviews.  Of course our hedges don't properly kick in until we're down over 10% so this is right where we expect to be and, keep in mind that if we were to cash $2,218,428, we could then buy the same stocks at 95% of their previous value and end up with more shares for less money than we had before – that's what hedging is all about!

    I still like SQQQ as a primary hedge and it's at $35 so the 2021 $30 ($11)/$45 ($7.50) bull call spread for $3.50 is a great long-term hedge and you can sell 1/2 the Jan $30 puts for $2.70 to knock it down to $2.15 and let's say you bought 50 of those for $10,750 and sold 5 AAPL 2021 $180 puts for $16.50 ($8,250) so the net cost of $75,000 worth of insurance for 16 months (that's $25,000 in the money to start) is $2,500 – I think that's great insurance as long as you REALLY would like to own 500 shares of AAPL at $180, of course!  


  15. Pstas – I continued to trade it after Opt left.  Actually sold my last piece at $10.80 back in April.  Started a new position this morning on this huge sell off.  Was too early (as usual), but I really like it for recovery at this level.  If we get a bounce back to 5 1/2-6 I'll cover some.

    And yes, it's very speculative !


  16. Selling more VXX calls in the panic! Jan '20 40 calls and even some Jan '21 50 calls. These last ones are super safe and at $5 against $2.70 of margin, you can't really do much better with your money in 18 months!


  17. Russell and NYSE are now below where they were in Jan 2017! Once again, big moves but going nowhere! 


  18. Phil, TD doesn't have the Portfolio Margin option and even InteractiveBroker has this notice, "Portfolio Margin is currently not available to Canadian customers."  :(

    Good news is that I was able to fill part of the AAPL trade at better prices:

    B  30 AAPL Jun21 $200c @ $29.1(vs $38),    S 10 AAPL Jan21 $180p @ $14 (vs $10).  Hoping to sell the short '21 $240cs when AAPL recovers a bit . .. 


  19. Cultivated week of August 2



  20. DAX closes down 3.11%

    CAC 40 down 3.57%


  21. Txs pstas, Albo, Phil – I need my business to take off too!


  22. Canadian/Wing – Ah, you didn't say you had a pre-existing condition.  cheeky  Good adjustment.

    Europe/Den – Catastrophic!  

    Business/Winston – It always takes longer than you think.


  23. Phil, on the SQQQ hedge I thought we had said that it was rather risky to sell the puts on the SQQQ to finance the main spread due to the decay on this 3X ETF. A few years ago I seem to remember the positions running into trouble when the markets took off. Yes, the long side of the portfolio was fine but the price increase on the short SQQQ puts swallowed a large chunk of the profits. Or I may be mistaken. As a result of that we tended to choose another underlying that we would really like to own to finance the SQQQ spread. We never really want to own SQQQ do we?


  24. SQQQ/Winston – I don't think selling Jan $30 puts is going to be subject to much decay and the Nasdaq would have to be over 5% higher before you even owe the money back – and then you can roll.  Given we feel the market is toppy here – I don't consider it too risky for the hedge.  And, while we don't INTEND to own SQQQ:  Let's say we sold the Aug $40 puts for $2.70 back in Feb and now they are $5.70 so we're down $3 and the March (I'm trying to match time-frames) $40/55 spread we bought for $3.50 is now $5.30/2 (there are no $50s).  

    Even if there were short $50s, we could salvage our $5.30 by selling the March $40s and rolling to the 2021 $30/45 spread at $3.50 and the short Aug $40 puts could be rolled to the March $30 puts at $3.70 so we're netting 0.20 on the roll – not a big deal at all though we do have the short naked $50s to wait out.  These positions are not win or lose – we're ALWAYS going to want hedges so we can usually pull some value back out and reposition and, if we can't – well that's the cost of insurance. 

    Keep in mind that SQQQ, as an ultra, will generally grind down in a good market but it's subject to big moves up (when there's a dip) but not so much big moves down – other than when it's correcting off a dip.  I'm not suggesting we short SQQQ puts at the top of the range, it's very, very unlikely that SQQQ spikes lower on some big boost to the Nasdaq but, at the same time – it makes excellent protection if the opposite happens.


  25. Oh, I forgot to finish my thought.  IF we were assigned SQQQ at $30 then we could (if we don't take the loss or roll) sell the 2021 $25 calls for $13, dropping our basis to $18 (adding back $5 from the cost of the spread and assuming no other money was recovered in some total disaster) and then we could sell the Sept $30 calls (which are now $5.30) for let's say the cost of the $35s, which is $3.20 and then our net is back to $15 with a call-way at $25 and we haven't even sold any puts!  Since that's just 54 days out of 532 we have to sell – there's a very good chance we could get our $15 back and then the longs would be FREE and make a great hedge in our portfolio forever more (or until they decay to 0).


  26. Added some GLUU March $4 short puts at .65


  27. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  28. Trump announces beef pact with EU.  He was so desperate to put a "win" on the board he took this lame deal and trotted it out like he just cured cancer (which he also claimed to do this week).

    • The U.S. has reached an agreement with the European Union that will make it easier for the U.S. to export beef to the EU, President Trump announces.
    • The EU Parliament still needs to ratify the agreement
    • U.S. stocks pull up from session lows; S&P 500 pares its decline to 0.9% vs. 1.3% earlier; Nasdaq pares its decline to 1.5% from 1.9%; and Dow -0.6% vs. -1.3%

    "Huge" rally already fading out.  

    Image result for what a maroon animated gif

    Tariff Fight Costs China Spot as Top U.S. Trading Partner

    Our great Republican Congressman John Ratcliffe is being treated very unfairly by the LameStream Media. Rather than going through months of slander and libel, I explained to John how miserable it would be for him and his family to deal with these people….
    Replying to

    Yeah. Never mind that the requirements for the position are written into law and that Ratcliffe didn't meet those. What the hell is the country coming to when the wanna-be dictator can't pick whomever he wants for any position, eh?

    Ratcliffe’s main qualifications for receiving a nomination from Trump seem to be his aggressive defense of the president and his directed questioning of individuals the president doesn’t like. Back in the summer of 2018, he emerged as one of the most energetic questioners of former deputy assistant director of the FBI Counterintelligence Division Peter Strzok and former FBI lawyer Lisa Page during their depositions to the House Judiciary Committee—about their text messages and related matters more than about the nature of Russian interference in the 2016 election. A few months later, his name appeared on short lists as a replacement for Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

    More recently, during Mueller’s testimony to the House Judiciary and Intelligence committees on July 24, he accused the former special counsel of violating “every principle in the most sacred of traditions” of prosecutors. He lectured Mueller that “Donald Trump is not above the law. He’s not. But he damn sure shouldn’t be below the law, which is where Volume 2 of this report puts him.”

    And then he went on Fox Business News this weekend to declare that it had been “a train wreck of a week for the Democrats, and it was a great week for Donald Trump because of that.” He even engaged in the president’s favorite pastime, coming up with disparaging nicknames for Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler and Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, saying they were “starting to look more like Laurel and Hardy.”

    Ratcliffe, in other words, came right out of central casting for Trump. But he looks quite different when compared to the men and women who have led the nation’s intelligence efforts for more than seven decades. Should his nomination go forward, senators have many valid questions to ask not only about his political tirades but also about how he plans to overcome his relative lack of intelligence exposure and senior management experience.

     


  29. Replying to

    For those of you reading between the lines, I tried to sneak Ratcliffe past the vetting process but when even GOPers took issue I had to pull out. Too bad cuz I picked "The Rat" < as I affectionately call him > to bury the substantial Intel trail re my cooperation with Russia.

    Image

    Replying to

    Well

    WAS a great pick, until it was discovered that his references were cartoon characters, Rolling Rock University didn't offer a Masters Degree in "International Spy-Stuff", and that he had NOT actually been the first astronaut on Mars. Otherwise, he was great.

    Image

    Image

    Image

    Image

    TGIF indeed!  


  30. Image

    Image

    Image

    Image

     


  31. His administration cut $1 billion from global AIDS initiatives and proposed a $900M budget cut to the National Cancer Institute.


  32. I don't want to be all Trump-bashing (though really just reporting what's going on).  Here's a nice picture from one of his rallies:

    There, doesn't that make you feel better about our President?


  33. That last picture has got to be fake.  There's no way one poster said, "offical" and another said "infromed" in the same photo.  My faith in humanity is higher than that.


  34. HI Phil, looking for an adjustment to my GOLD position;

    Long 20 Jan 2020 $10 Calls bought at $2.00 currently $7.05, and

    Short 10 Jan 2020 $15 Puts sold at $2.33 currently $.75 

    I bought back short calls and rolled down to the $10 (from my original position, left uncovered on the roll). These are the puts I originally sold. Thanks…..from yesterday


  35. I don't get this whole thing with people these days that they have to take a picture of everything.  You get lucky enough to stand right next to the President and, rather than take in the moment and create a memory, you shove a camera between you and him.  It's the same everywhere – I don't even take my phone out of the hotel me when I'm on trips as I like to go around and actually BE somewhere.  If I want a picture of the basillica of Sacre Coeur Church in Paris – it takes 2 seconds to find it on Google and 5 minutes to find a less professional one on my IPhone.

    Image result for sacred heart church paris

    Jackie and her friends had seats right next to the walkway at a Katie Peri concert and she walks right next to them and every single one of them had their phones out instead of just taking it in – MADNESS!

    Wow, now we have a real recovery.  Dow down just 54 points but Nas still down 100 (1.25%).  No major news – I guess we're loving the beef deal…

    A growing number of young voters, including conservatives, identify climate change as a top priority.

    • New employment numbers showed 164,000 jobs were added in the U.S. in July and the unemployment rate was stable at 3.7 percent.
    • But there are signs that the trade war may be taking a toll, with more trouble ahead.

    The Sunrise Movement was virtually unknown almost a year ago. It’s now disrupting and energizing the Democratic primary. Watch Sunday on FX and Monday on Hulu.

    The Weekly

    Infromed/JPH – You may be right as the offical sign (and holder) seems cropped from another rally.  It's  a real sign, just not in the same place.  Of course, if you follow that link and read all the signs – you'll still lose your faith…

    GOLD/Motox – I think it's been a good run and you should be thrilled you didn't lose $1 today.  You can cash the 2020 $10s for $14,000ish and I'd cash the puts too and, as a new position using much less cash, I'd go with:

    • Buy 20 GOLD 2021 $15 calls for $4 ($4,000) 
    • Sell 20 GOLD 2021 $20 calls for $2 ($2,000) 
    • Sell 5 GOLD 2021 $15 puts for $1.85 ($925)

    So you're spending $1,075 and taking $13,250 off on the other side so net $12,175 in your pocket and you still have up to $10,000 more to collect at $20, which is more than you'd get from $17 to $20 with the 20 naked calls you have now.  If GOLD goes higher, you'll end up with $22,175 over $20 and if GOLD goes lower – you can put some of the cash back into improving the position a bit.  

    While you wait, I'd sell 5 Jan $17 calls for $1.65 as that's $825 and 4 of those sales while you wait is another $3,300 – nothing to sneeze at and not likely to hurt you.

    Down 115 in the end – not a total catastrophe but /ES below 3,000 (2,930) is technical damage on the weekly chart. 

    Have a great weekend folks, 

    - Phil


  36. Fewer jobs / Phil – And let's not forget that it's while increasing the deficit by $200-400B more each year compared to the last 3 years of Obama! So more deficit per job created.



  37. In Pentagon Contract Fight, Amazon Has Foes in High Places


  38. Fact check: Trump makes more than 20 false claims at Cincinnati rally


  39.                           test


  40. She is either on something or on to something.

    Tesla, Bitcoin, and the Inverted Yield Curve Herald a New Era of Growth

    It will be a no-brainer to shift. Our bear case for Tesla in five years is $600, if it loses two-thirds of its global market share, which is 17% right now of the electric-vehicle, or EV, market. Our bull case on electric vehicles get us to $1,400 per share [without counting the boom in autonomous vehicles].”



  41. Iran Seizes Oil Tanker in Persian Gulf


  42. 9 dead, 16 injured in a shooting in Dayton, Ohio


  43. When Hate Came to El Paso




  44. Russian Land of Permafrost and Mammoths Is Thawing


  45. Minutes Before El Paso Killing, Hate-Filled Manifesto Appears Online



  46. French air-board inventor flies across the English Channel




  47. The Ecstatic Chaos of Woodstock


  48. Down we go again in the Futures.  

    1% across the board 



  49. Mexico exploring legal action against the US following El Paso shooting




  50. Dayton Shooting Victims Included Gunman’s Own Sister


  51. Good morning! 

    Down 1.5% now, almost 2% on the Nas.  In the bigger picture for the Nas, 8,000 was an overshoot and 7,500 is the real line and we ran up from 6,000 in the Christmas Crash and retraced to 7,000 on our first run towards 8,000 so holding 7,500 this time would actually be progress – although it doesn't feel like it at the moment.

    What we really have is a 15-year consolidation after being rejected at 5,000 and we did calculate, months ago (April), that Nasdaq 8,000 was not too far-fetched so I'm pretty comfortable calling 7,500 the middle of the short-term Nasdaq range, which means we could easily fall 500 back to 7,000 but I think there's enough support there to hold us.  We're like to see at least a weak bounce off 7,500 (to 7,600) to confirm that 7,500 is a support line and not just a stop on the way to 6,000.


  52. /NG is looking pretty cheap again  $2.07 on the front month