There was apparently no intelligence for Saturday’s shock attack from the Gaza Strip, but there were preliminary signs. Now Israel is likely to respond with great force, and the possibility of a ground maneuver and occupation of the Strip cannot be ruled out. The eruption of a multi-arena campaign is also possible.
- Israel had no intelligence warning about Hamas’ large-scale attack, despite some preliminary signs an attack was being planned. This represents a major failure of Israel’s defense doctrine.
- Israel was caught off-guard by the scale and scope of Hamas’ offensive using rockets, ground incursions, and tunnels. Israel’s security precautions proved ineffective.
- Despite border barriers and surveillance, Hamas planned and executed major cross-border attacks. Hamas spent months planning the surprise attack while Israel focused on work permits.
- Israel’s response is expected to be forceful with high likelihood of Palestinian casualties. Ground invasion or re-occupation of Gaza is possible.
- The conflict could spread to the West Bank, Jerusalem, and Hezbollah opening a northern front against Israel.
- The article compares this to the 1973 intelligence failure, calling it an even bigger systemic failure by Israel’s leadership.