Macro Outlook & Fed Minutes (10/7/2026)
Topic Timeline
0:00 — Market breadth and the narrowing rally
3:57 — AI hype, Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX
9:31 — Why analysts get new technology wrong
14:13 — Robots and AI: let the AGI figure it out
17:23 — The real economy behind AI spending: Oracle, Blue Owl and force majeure
22:04 — Picks and shovels: who actually gets paid
24:09 — $700/Month Portfolio: the 50-month milestone
29:17 — S&P 500 technical levels
32:39 — Google’s AI Mode and Alphabet
36:09 — $700/Month Portfolio position review
1:03:46 — Fed minutes preview with Warren
1:07:24 — Why GDP looks stronger than the real economy
1:18:22 — The Fed minutes are released
1:29:14 — The 10-year note auction and the debt problem
Transcript
Market Breadth and the Narrowing Rally
...basically in the same place. We sold off a little bit, then we popped back up, and now we’re coming back down and we’re still in the same place. So, whatever.
The Nasdaq is doing better than that. It’s up about 400 points, so that’s... wait, it’s only about a percent, right? Am I crazy? 400 divided by 31,000. Yeah, 1.2%. Okay, so I can do math. I just don’t trust myself anymore. That’s the problem. And by the way, you can hear my voice. I don’t know how long it’ll last. It’s not good today.
So here’s the Dow, and the Dow has been selling off. Don’t forget, this is something we’ve been talking about for a week or two: the breadth of the market, in other words the total number of stocks that are going up, is horrible. It’s getting narrower and narrower. More and more, the market is being driven by just a few stocks going up, and of course it is. If Apple goes up 2% on $5 trillion, that’s $100 billion, and Nvidia too.
