AMZN – Amazon.com, Inc. – E-tailer, Amazon.com, Inc., attracted two-way trading traffic in its options today after the firm gave in to publisher, Macmillan’s, demands to increase the price of digital books. Amazon.com’s concession to Macmillan is fueling investor concerns that the largest internet retailer is relinquishing its pricing advantage. Shares of the online shopping destination slumped more than 8.65% during the trading session to an intraday low of $114.38 – the largest decline in Amazon’s shares in more than one year. Investors inundated Amazon with options trades today, exchanging more than 226,300 contracts on the stock by 2:50 pm (EDT). Option volume generated thus far in the session represents more than 45% of the total 493,697 lots of existing open interest on AMZN. Strong demand for options on the stock as well as a rise in investor uncertainty boosted option implied volatility on Amazon roughly 8.3% higher to 41.44% in afternoon trading. Option traders expecting shares to rebound quickly purchased 2,200 call options at the February $115 strike for an average premium of $5.67 apiece. The $120.67 breakeven price on the contracts suggests call buyers expecting to amass profits in the next few weeks, anticipate a more than 5% increase off the intraday low, by expiration day in February. Call buying and selling in roughly equal proportions was observed at the February $120 strike and at the February $125 strike. Two-way trading traffic of put options is also apparent in the February contract. Contrarian players sold nearly 8,000 puts at the February $115 strike to take in an average premium of $3.58 per contract. Put sellers at this strike keep the full premium received if AMZN’s shares trade above $115.00 through expiration day. The most bearish moves were made at the March $105 strike where 1,100 puts were picked up for an average premium of $2.81 each.
DELL – Dell, Inc. – Bullish investors initiated call spreads on the just-in-time manufacturer of personal computers this afternoon with Dell’s share price up 2.5% to $13.22 on the day. Option traders purchased more than 10,000 calls at the August $14 strike for an average premium of $1.17 apiece, spread against the sale of roughly 10,000 calls at the higher August $18 strike for an average premium of $0.20 each. The average net cost of the bullish trade amounts to $0.97 per contract. Investors…
"Every civilization," Swiss historian Jacob Burkhardt once wrote, "carries within itself the seeds of its own destruction."
Dr. Hanmer Hill and Josh Bill tell us: "We believe the financial crisis of 2008 exposes a seed that can destroy Western-style free-market capitalism. The name of that seed is the credit default swap, or CDS… A surgeon could not take out a life policy on a patient he or she was about to operate on. You could not take out a fire policy on a home you did not own, and you could not take out more than one policy on a home you did own… It was, and still is, possible to buy an unlimited number of CDSs against any financial instrument, whether one owns that instrument or not. Imagine someone taking out 20 fire policies on his neighbor’s home. Common sense tells you the odds just went up that that house is going to burn, and you have just created a perverse appetite for the homes most likely to burn."
The total amount of subprime mortgages written soon rose to $2 trillion. The total value of the CDSs written against CDOs rose to $65 trillion. That’s right: $65 trillion of insurance against $2 trillion worth of high-risk mortgages. Those who profited the most sought out the worst of the worst mortgages to bet against. One big winner was hedge fund manager John Paulson. In 2006, Paulson convinced Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to create extremely high-risk CDOs and sell them to others, so both he and they could bet against them. Paulson picked the mortgages. He made $15 billion. His friend George Soros (who later said "I’m having a very good crisis") made $5 billion. Deutsche Bank made $25 billion doing this. Goldman Sachs made much, much more.
In 2006, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank underwrote 352 fraudulent mortgages in Sikeston, Mo. In 2009, Goldman Sachs paid Massachusetts $60 million to close an investigation into its role in creating "mortgages designed to fail at the inception."
As I mentioned this weekend in my Davos review, I find it VERY disturbing that we are seeing an extreme uptick in both lending to risky countries and CDS betting that those same countries will fail. This is kind of like playing that carnival game where you squirt water into the clown’s mouth until you pop the balloon while adding bets that the balloon will pop.
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
Interest come and we need another loan
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
Interest come and we need another loan
Work our lives just to lose our homes
Interest come and we need another loan
Stack default swaps till they come undone
Interest come and we need another loan
Come on Economists, tell us some more BS
Interest come and we need another loan
Come on Economists, tell us some more BS
Interest come and we need another loan
6%, 7% - it’s a credit crunch
Interest come and we need another loan
6%, 7% - it’s a credit crunch
Interest come and we need another loan
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
Interest come and we need another loan
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
When interest comes we’ll need another loan
It was the best of times (with the IMF predicting 3.9% Global growth) and the worst of times (with Roubini saying we’re all doomed) at Davos this week as the men who rule the world gathered to divide the spoils over card games while vying with each other for podium and TV time so they could talk their various books from the safety of the Swiss mountains. Davos, a tiny village perched on a mountain with just two main streets, lacks the protests of other Global gatherings. During the annual meeting, the town is taken hostage by thousands of police. “Anyone who looks like a protester can be thrown off the train,” says Marco Leutholz, head of the local Socialist party (and that train often overlooks steep cliffs!). Sir Howard Davies (director of the LSE) writes:
The mood is certainly better than last year, when the world was ending, but it is worse than at the beginning of last week. Alessandro Profumo of Unicredit acutely observed that Davos is likely to accentuate whatever mood you arrived in, rather as alcohol does, I guess. So those who arrived nervous about the economic prospects are leaving even more jittery. If you arrived feeling pessimistic, you will leave somewhere between suicidal and homicidal.
The market background has not helped. Anxiety about Greece has grown over the past three days. In the circumstances, it was strange to see both the Greek prime minister and his finance minister here. Maybe the subtext was to show that there can be no crisis if they are munching muesli in the mountains, but though some may have been reassured, more people asked who was at home minding the taverna.
Hey I like that guy - let’s sign him up as a regular writer! Let’s NOT sign up Bill Gates, as Captain Obvious posted on his blog: "One of the big topics of conversation here in Davos is the economy." They say retirement makes your brain…
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, exports, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
The first two are not a big surprise. The latter, however, is dangerous to rely on.
As I have repeatedly pointed out we have over the last 18 months added about $500 billion (annually) in transfer payments to the federal budget. This counts in the GDP report as PCE, but is not actual output any more than I am richer if I go to the bank and borrow $20,000 on my credit card.
If one was doing GDP as a "balance sheet" you’d have to subtract the addition in liabilities (debt) from the money spent, but of course GDP isn’t computed that way. This results in a nutty overstatement of GDP when it is used as a measurement of economic health, which of course is how all the so-called "economists" use it.
Indeed, that $500 billion is an annualized distortion of a whopping 3.57% of the entire economy!
There are some problems in this report as well. The claim is made that real federal government expenditures and investment was flat (0.1% increase) .vs. an 8% annualized rate of change in the last quarter. I’m not sure I believe that either - but it may in fact be true, in that the aforementioned $500 billion diversion could reasonably be "all there is" in terms of what the government can and does spend. I’m particularly skeptical of this number after seeing the durables report and change in defense spending - those two numbers don’t add correctly, and defense spending has been up strong all year (much to the chagrin of those who thought Obama would be drawing down our military spending and bringing the troops home!) State expenditures are down as expected (the states are broke!) but despite all the bleating about lack of money the change is small. You’d think there would be real cutting going on given the screams of distress - nope!
Export growth continued as did imports, but the import growth rate slowed dramatically from the third quarter. The latter mostly appears to account for inventory additions,which was 3.39% of the GDP increase - about what I expected. While this is additive to GDP it is not indicative by…
Yep, that’s all it was, we lost all of 100 points more than last week, when we fell from 10,725 to 10,172(553 points) and this week we dropped from Friday’s Dow close of 10,172 all the way down to 10,067 yet you would think the world had come to an end to hear the media and the traders freaking out. I’m not going to try to explain it, I can’t. Maybe it’s because going into last week we were very bearish but, starting on the 22nd, we let ourselves finally get a little more bullish AND THE MARKET BETRAYED US!
How could the market not zoom right back up? It always zooms right back up, doesn’t it? As I said a week ago Friday: "Boy, when sentiment shifts - it REALLY shifts!" My closing comment on Friday the 22nd was "Back to cash but leaving disaster hedges, which are looking great now as this is shaping up to be some disaster" and our weekend "Global Chart Review" showed us to be at some very key inflection points, letting us go well prepared into this week:
My Jets lost on Sunday so I was not in the best of moods on Monday. My outlook that morning was: "We still have our disaster hedges in case things get worse but, on the whole, we’re expecting a 1% bounce in the very least off our 5% lines (anything less will be a bad sign)." We were pretty much at the 5% rule on Friday’s close so we focused on the bounce we wanted to achieve in order to get more bullish.
I noted that the levels we were looking for were not exactly 1% retraces (see post for reasons) and our target retraces were: Dow 10,300, S&P 1,105, Nasdaq 2,225, NYSE 7,100 and Russell 625. What were the highs for the week on those indexes? Dow 10,310 (+10), S&P 1,103 (-2), Nasdaq 2,227 (+2), NYSE 7,098 (-2) and Russell 621 (-4). So that’s a net of +4 points out of 21,355 points worth of predictions on the retrace, accuracy to within .019% - not a bad showing for our patented 5% rule.
Please, under NO circumstancessubscribe to our daily newsletter, where you would have this kind of information every morning and DO NOT get an Alert Membership where we send out our amazingly accurate watch levels to you every day. Having this sort of advanced information on the markets would be unfair to other traders, who thank you for your restraint…
At 12:52 yesterday I officially went long on the markets.
This could be a big mistake (in fact, that’s what I said to Members at the time) but the logic was Bernanke would be confirmed (he was) and that we’d have a big GDP number today. Now the reason we’re going to have a big GDP number is because we will have a big build in inventories (we discussed this effect on Jan 14th) as manufacturers got all excited and produced goods that nobody bought and, because it is assumed that goods are only produced in accurate anticipation of demand - this kind of nonsense comes in a positive to our GDP.
Production collapsed during the recession as companies sold from their existing inventories but didn’t order new goods, because of uncertainty about future customer demand. These inventory declines dragged on GDP for six consecutive quarters, the longest streak on record since 1948. The turnaround in inventoris could give us a Q4 GDP in the 5% range. Rational economists prefer to look at final sales to domestic purchasers, a subset of GDP that doesn’t include inventories and trade, to better gauge U.S. economic activity. That category is likely to grow at only a 2% pace, similar to the third quarter but shhhhhhh! - we don’t want to wake the rational economist - who has clearly been asleep since the the mid 90s…
So we went bullish (speculatively), not because we are going to be excited by a 5% GDP number that makes us look like some overheating Third World economy even as another 2M people lost their jobs in Q4. No, we’re bullish because we cynically believe that the sheeple are clueless and will stampede into this number as if the US is recovering and nobody told them until this morning.
Meanwhile, I have a message for the sheeple: Please keep selling us your Google stock. I think this chart of the day is self-explanatory but you never know. This is a chart of the amount of money Google makes per employee, per quarter. Currently they are generating $1.34 MILLION dollars for each person they hire (and they’ve been hiring). For a comparison, Yahoo generates $500,000 per employee yet GOOG currently has a p/e ratio that is 1/2 of Yahoo’s.
Microsoft’s 98,000 employees generate $623,000 each, ORCL’s 86,000 employees pull in just $267,000 each. It’s not a definitve indicator but consider how well they have managed that number through the recession, which…
You would think I would have a lot to say about the IPAD but I don’t.
After all, I named the IPad back in December 2008 when I told Members: "AAPL just announced a deal to do Ebooks on IPhones and ITouch and that is the intermediate step towards the IPad, which should be a 2-3x size version of the IPhone that takes the place of a Kindle or a laptop or a notepad or…" I also ran a very close to accurate picture of the IPad back on Sept 11th (and the live images are here), which documents our bullish take on AAPL all the way from $85 and reiterated in Sept at $170 (but we were out at $213 Tuesday, back in at $202 yesterday for the ride back up as we got our expected sell-off during the Apple event) - so this is all old news for us at PSW.
Back in September I said: "So we are happy, happy AAPL owners and Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster thinks AAPL can sell 2M units of the IPad at $600 each to generate an additional $1.2Bn in revenues in 2010 and I think he’s low. Also, it should be noted that we went with GLW back in December on the premise that millions of touch-screen IPads would use a lot of high-end glass." I am very pleased that the basic model came in $100 lower than my target but, as with IPods - who buys the basic model? Delivery in 60 days means I should hit my sales targets no problem and I it doesn’t look like GLW will be the supplier of IPad glass (LPL seems more likely) but the demand for glass will still be stunning and GLW is up 26% since September so we’re not going to whine about it (I still like them).
OK, enough about toys, on to the President, who gave his State of the Union Address last night, making the following notable points (my notes in brackets):
I’m proposing that we take $30 billion of the money Wall Street banks have repaid and use it to help community banks give small businesses the credit they need to stay afloat. I’m also proposing a new small-business tax credit, one that will go to over 1 million small businesses who hire new workers or raise wages. While we’re at it, let’s also eliminate all capital gains taxes on small-business investment and provide a tax incentive for…
A rare disease, sometimes known as an orphan disease, is any disease that is not common. Typically, a rare disease has such a low prevalence in a population that a physician in a busy general practice would not expect to see more than one case a year. Most rare diseases are genetic–present throughout the person’s entire life, even if symptoms do not appear immediately. However, many rare diseases appear early in life, and about 30% of children with rare diseases die before reaching their fifth birthdays.
No single cutoff number has been agreed upon for which a disease is considered rare. A disease may be considered rare in one part of the world, or in a particular group of people, but still be common in another. In the United States of America, the Rare Disease Act of 2002 defines rare disease strictly according to prevalence, as any disease or condition that affects less than 200,000 persons in the United States, or about 1 in 1,500 people.
BioMarin’s(BMRN) core business and research is in enzyme replacement therapies for orphan diseases. They are the first company to provide therapeutics for mucopolysaccharidosis type I (MPS I), by manufacturing Aldurazyme (commercialized by Genzyme Corporation). BioMarin is also the first company to provide therapeutics for Phenylketonuria (PKU)
As of 2005, BioMarin commercialized arylsulfatase B (Naglazyme) as an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of mucopolysaccharidosis VI (MPS VI), and in 2007 a drug version of tetrahydrobiopterin (Kuvan), the first medication-based intervention to treat phenylketonuria.
On 11/30/09, BioMarin announced that the FDA has granted orphan drug designation for 3,4-diaminopyridine (3,4-DAP), amifampridine phosphate, for the rare autoimmune disease Lambert Eaton Myasthenic Syndrome (LEMS). 3,4-DAP has previously received orphan drug designation in the E.U. Also, in October 2009, the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Medicines Evaluations Agency adopted a positive opinion recommending approval of amifampridine phosphate for LEMS. If approved by the European Commission, amifampridine phosphate will be the first approved treatment for LEMS, thereby conferring orphan drug protection and providing ten years of market exclusivity in Europe.
BMRN expects to meet with the FDA in early 2010 to determine the necessary regulatory path for amifampridine phosphate in the U.S. and is also preparing to launch the product in Europe during 1Q10. (Interestingly, Acorda Therapeutics has 4-aminopyridine (Ampyra) which was approved for MS. The only difference is an amino group, but the targets for each drug are almost identical.)
Currently, BioMarin has an exciting range of breakthrough drug candidates. In clinical development, it has PEG-PAL (PEGylated recombinant phenylalanine ammonia lysase)…
People have gotten so used to immediate rescues off any drop that holding a floor for two days brings out the doomsayers.
I remember a time, many years ago, where we could go a whole week without the Dow moving 100 points - TOTAL! I know that sounds like it must have been back before the Internet or even electricity but really, even between 2005 and 2007, the VIX averaged 12 - less than half of where it is today and, pre-1997, that was about the norm for the market. Back in those days, we used to buy stocks because we thought the company would grow and we wouldn’t hide in ETF "baskets" where we buy every single stock in a sector, as if quality was meaningless and the entire market would trade as a block.
Sadly, ETF funds (according to Blackrock) have now hit $1.032 TRILLION at the end of 2009 and that figure is up 45% for the year! That’s right, since their inception, we put about $700Bn into ETFs but, last year, another $300Bn was plowed in - mostly into new commodity ETFs (which creates a very false demand but is self-fulfilling at first). US ETFs account for $706Bn while Europe has $224Bn so imagine how far we can pump up Asia and other emerging markets if we can convince the sheeple to "diversify" over there! And ETFs have plenty of room to grow as BlackRock has done an excellent job of promoting them as a way to "take control of your Investments" as they look to capture more of the $19Tn mutual fund market.
Hedge funds make up just $1.5Tn of the investment money and, as a Hedge Fund manager, I can tell you we could not be more thrilled to see more and more money going into index and commodity funds that BUYBUYBUY and SELLSELLSELL based on rules I can read about in the prospectus. You, the ETF investor are playing a game where your money will be put to work at a certain time and under certain conditions every day and I, the Hedge fund manager, can read your entire playbook and can make my bets ahead of you any time I choose and, even if you see me betting, you still can’t change because you (your ETF) still have to follow your rules.
Now we have launches of CRBA, CRBQ and CRBI ETFs, even MORE ways to pile money into commodities - this following closely on…
Ordinarily I wouldn’t care if a new bunch of suckers gets fleeced buying shiny bits of metal and gooey liquids but the rising commodity prices suck capital away from the entire rest of the planet and that damages the global economy.
The World did not suddenly fall apart last week, we are only finally dealing with the myriad of problems that have been swept under the rug during 2009 as the market mindlessly ran up 30% off our June/July consolidation without a significant break. Could things really have been that good? Of course not, it was silly. Actually it was reckless and stupid and, ultimately, damaging because, as I said in my 2010 Outlook, it causes a MIS allocation of capital away from new companies and sectors that can thrive and create jobs - instead plowing money into the same idiotic commodity investments that popped just 18 months ago.
Now ordinarily I don’t want to get into long drawn-out academic discussions of various economic philosophies in my morning posts (that’s what weekend posts are for!) but who knew the whole thing could be set to music? Well, Zero Hedge did and I thank them for posting up this video, which I hope does a little to bring attention to poor Hayek who, although well honored himself, had to endure a 93-year life where everyone knew what "Keynesian" meant and everyone thought Hayek was "that hot Mexican actress."
Freidrich (as opposed to Salma) Hayek belived that the central role of the state was to maintain the rule of law, with as little arbitrary intervention as possible and that interventionist policies caused dangerous mis-allocations of capital that were damaging to the system. In The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945), Hayek argued that the price mechanism serves to share and synchronize local and personal knowledge, allowing society’s members to achieve diverse, complicated ends through a principle of spontaneous self-organization. He used the term catallaxy to describe a "self-organizing system of voluntary co-operation."
Although both Thatcher and Reagan based much of their econonomic policies on his work in the 80s, Hayek himself laid out the case for "Why I AM Not A Conservative." He’s a complicated guy - I like that…
If the Chinese allowed the renminbi to rise, would that make the USA better off? That is the contention of a cabal of critics from Senators to Nobel laureates. Paul Krugman wants to see a 25% tariff on Chinese goods. Today we examine that idea, and look at the real problems that we face. If only it were so easy. The numbers just don't add up. The fault, dear Brutus...
O Canada
But first, and quickly, and in keeping with the spirit of the recent Olympics in Canada, I want to let my Canadian readers know...
You may be wondering why Chopshop is referencing Martin Armstrong's writings, given Marty's extended stay in maximum security prison. Chopshop contends that Martin's cyclic modeling is genius and ought to supersede whatever opinion one has of Armstrong's case.
Armstrong is a gold-to-$5,000 guy. Chopshop agrees that one day gold will likely reach those dollar-denominated "values", but believes that gold will likely digest its 400% gain of the past decade over the next few years before 'going for the gusto.'
Chopshop and Fibozachi have remained steadfast in calling for first targets of 81 and 84 on the US dol...
Truthfully, I have not surveyed our ursine friends this morning, so I really have no idea if they are emboldened by the low CBOE equity put to call ratio (CPCE), but they should be.
My preferred way of looking at the equity put to call ratio involves using an exponential 10 day moving average (EMA) as a smoothing factor. The 10 day EMA generates the dotted blue li...
As I always do before options expiration I reviewed our Buy List, which, this quarter, is a list of 37 stocks we've been playing since late December and, sadly, after reviewing 37 of our favorite investments very carefully this week - I could only conclude that cashing them out was the only decision I could be comfortable with this week. Of 66 trades we had on our 37 stocks, 64 are winners with an average return since 2/8 of 28% - since most of the trades were designed to make 40% for the year - it just seems silly not to take the money and run now, on March 19th.
You are not supposed to have 64 out of 66 winners in 6 weeks, you are not supposed to make 3/4 of what you anticipate for the year in 6 weeks - that is NOT how the markets are supposed to work! When the ma...
Today’s tickers: BBY, DNDN, GLD, BAC, AET, BA & NBR
BBY - Best Buy Co., Inc. – Shares of the world’s largest electronics retailer rallied 2% to $41.25 during the trading session after receiving an upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs Group where analysts increased BBY’s target share price to $47.00 from $44.00. Options traders employed a few different bullish tactics to position for continued upward movement in the price of the underlying stock through expiration in April. Plain-vanilla call buyers targeted the April $44 strike to purchase 5,100 calls for an average premium of $0.55 apiece. These investors stand ready to accrue profits if Best Buy’s share price increases 8% from the current value to exceed the effective breakeven point on the calls at $44.55 by expirati...
Let's take a look at Insider Buying and Selling over the last week or so. These are screen shots from Finviz - the significant buys against a green background first and significant sells against the pink background second. All the buys fit into my screen shot but the sells did not. Click here to see all the sells.
Note that the largest buy in the group, for KITD was at a price of 9.73 (KITD is currently at 11.54). The buy was part of an Equity Offering rather than an open market purchase. Tuzman Kaleil Isaza's (KITD's Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer) history of buys is http://www.insidercow.com/more from Insider
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In 2006, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank underwrote 352 fraudulent mortgages in Sikeston, Mo. In 2009, Goldman Sachs paid Massachusetts $60 million to close an investigation into its role in creating "mortgages designed to fail at the inception." 
The mood is certainly better than last year, when the world was ending, but it is worse than at the beginning of last week. Alessandro Profumo of Unicredit acutely observed that Davos is likely to accentuate whatever mood you arrived in, rather as alcohol does, I guess. So those who arrived nervous about the economic prospects are leaving even more jittery. If you arrived feeling pessimistic, you will leave somewhere between suicidal and homicidal.-2.gif)
Courtesy of 
Export growth continued as did imports, but the import growth rate slowed dramatically from the third quarter. The latter mostly appears to account for inventory additions,
See how I cleverly used reverse…![[AOT]](http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MI-BB087_AOT_NS_20100128184816.gif)
At 12:52 yesterday I officially went long on the markets.
Meanwhile, I have a message for the sheeple: Please keep selling us your Google stock. I think this chart of the day is self-explanatory but you never know. This is a chart of the amount of money Google makes per employee, per quarter. Currently they are generating $1.34 MILLION dollars for each person they hire (and they’ve been hiring). For a comparison, Yahoo generates $500,000 per employee yet GOOG currently has a p/e ratio that is 1/2 of Yahoo’s. 
You would think I would have a lot to say about the IPAD but I don’t.
OK, enough about toys, on to the President, who gave his State of the Union Address last night, making the following notable points (my notes in brackets):
BioMarin’s (BMRN) core business and research is in enzyme replacement therapies for orphan diseases. They are the first company to provide therapeutics for mucopolysaccharidosis type I (MPS I), by manufacturing Aldurazyme (commercialized by Genzyme Corporation). BioMarin is also the first company to provide therapeutics for Phenylketonuria (PKU)
People have gotten so used to immediate rescues off any drop that holding a floor for two days brings out the doomsayers.
Now we have launches of CRBA, CRBQ and CRBI ETFs, even MORE ways to pile money into commodities - this following closely on…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(