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Sabrient Risers – 2/4/2012


Top 5 Risers

Stock Rating Analysis
IACI BUY Projected value continues to rise for IAC/InterActiveCorp while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
PTEN STRONGBUY An increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make Patterson-UTI a company to watch.
AN BUY Projected value continues to rise for AutoNation while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
CNW BUY Projected value continues to rise for Con-Way while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
ASBC BUY Associated Bancorp is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.



Sabrient Divers – 02/04/2012


Top 5 Divers

Stock Rating Analysis
HSP STRONGSELL Projected value for Hospira is diminishing and long term growth rates are declining — someone throw them a lifeline.
CCL STRONGSELL With projected value going down even more quickly than their recent historical earnings, Carnival is not looking good.
APC STRONGSELL Degradation in recent earnings and declining long term growth prospects are pushing Anadarko lower and lower in our stack.
ALTR SELL A consensus is building that Altera is showing weakening near term and long term prospects.
EOC STRONGSELL We project an unfortunate decrease in value for ENDESA, and we’re not alone in this opinion as other analysts are also reducing expectations.



Jobs Report Drives Heavy Trading Traffic In Ford, General Motors Options

www.interactivebrokers.com

 

Today’s tickers: F, GM, MAS & GILD

Options commentary to resume on Thursday February 9th.

F - Ford Motor Co. – The better-than-expected jobs number out this morning revved up investor appetite for automobile stocks, driving shares in Ford Motor Co. up 4.0% to $12.75. Call options on the U.S. automaker are flying off the shelves, with nearly 5 calls in play on the stock for each single put option traded. The single-largest transaction in Ford options appears to be a bull call spread that yields maximum possible profits if the price of the underlying rallies nearly 20.0% during the next few months to expiration. It looks like one trader purchased a 30,000-lot April $14/$15 call spread for a net premium of $0.15 per contract. The position may be profitable at expiration if shares in Ford Motor Co. climb 11.0% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $14.15. Maximum potential profits of $0.85 per contract are available on the spread should shares in the auto manufacturer surge 17.6% to exceed $15.00 by expiration. Overall options volume on Ford is up above 175,000 contracts just before 1:00 p.m. ET.

GM - General Motors Co. – GM’s shares are outperforming fellow U.S. automaker, Ford Motor Co., this afternoon, with the stock trading 8.4% higher on the session at $26.35 as of 12:55 p.m. in New York. Optimism spurred by this morning’s stronger-than-expected jobs report was followed by greater-than-usual options action in the name. A debit put spread in the March expiry, which may be an outright bearish bet…
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Friday Follies – No Jobs but Hey, Look at Facebook!

Distractions.  

That's all we have lately.  Greece's silly $171Bn loan is meant to distract us from Europe's $17Tn debt hole and the US continues to borrow $171Bn PER MONTH to cover it's deficit and we don't even talk about Japan as the debt climbs over 220% of their rapidly declining GDP and who knows what's going on in China but, generally, when you have double-digit declines in home prices on a monthly basis – there's going to be a problem down the road.  

This may be my last bearish post before drinking the technical Kool-Aid this weekend and we've already selected 5 trades for our Members that will make 200-500% if the market keeps moving forward and there are still plenty of stocks we can make a lovely Buy List out of if this rally has legs – especially the way we like to bet, since our hedges allow us to make very nice returns, as long as we simply hold our current levels.   

There's the rub though – are the current levels sustainable?  The nice thing about consolidations like the one we've been having this year is that they firm up a floor and give us a very obvious exit point on the way down so we can move some of that sideline cash into play – as long as we hold 12,500 on the Dow and 1,300 on the S&P and 2,800 on the Nasdaq – pretty simple strategy, right?  

Notice the 2nd row has our major indices priced in Euros and our third priced in Yen.  My main issue has been that we've been much weaker than it seemed as the Dollar's relentless decline masked a downturn in the inflation-adjusted price of our stocks (and the weak Dollar also serves to inflate revenues reported by multinational companies) but, at the moment, we're at our breakout levels by any measure so we may as well go with the flow until we see a proper reversal.  

First we need to get past our NFP report at 8:30 of course.  I'm expecting a miss but will the market even care or will that just mean Uncle Ben has an excuse to pump up the QE according to their new "formula"?  

Keep in mind that what Bernanke said last week regarding the Fed's system for determining policy boils down to – As long…
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Sabrient Risers – 2/3/2012


Top 5 Risers

Stock Rating Analysis
ASBC BUY Associated Bancorp is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.
AN BUY Projected value continues to rise for AutoNation while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
URI BUY United Rentals has shown a remarkable increase in projected value recently, with the majority of analysts expecting higher than previously expected earnings.
PTEN STRONGBUY The long term projected growth rate for Patterson-UTI is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly.
CZZ STRONGBUY The projected value for Cosan Ltd is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.




 

Chart School

Getting Technical: Weekend Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here's the latest weekend update from Serge Perreault, a Chartered Accountant and market technician located near Montreal, Canada. Serge has been following the U.S. market in a series of weekly charts. Here is his update on the S&P 500.

This week, the S&P 500 could not break so much resistance and now paused its ascension, on average volume and on falling momentum.

Notice also how the "Volume EMA10" has continued its downtrend.


 


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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Friday February 10, 2012

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:

Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty

The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.

Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.

...

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Zero Hedge

Guest Post: The DHS Defends Globalism, Not America

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Brandon Smith from Alt Market

The DHS Defends Globalism, Not America

The Department Of Homeland Security is the very epitome of unnecessary bureaucracy.  Its formation was predicated on the existence of terrorist threats, many of which the U.S. government and orbiting alphabet agencies either created through acts of war, or fabricated out of thin air.  Its policies of centralization were sold to the pub...



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Phil's Favorites

China Financial Markets: When Will China Emerge From the Global Crisis?

Courtesy of Mish

I am saddened to report that Michael Pettis' site China Financial Markets has been blocked. The link redirects to a site with a one line message "This Account Has Been Suspended". When I have more details, I will post them.

Note: I just heard back from Pettis who is unsure of what happened. Hopefully this will be cleared up soon. I am leaving the rest of this post as I originally wrote it. 

This is really a shame because Pettis is invariably a great read. I am personally indebted because he has taught me most of what I know about trade. 

Michael Pettis is Professor of Finance at Peking University, and Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

W...



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Market Montage

And Still Not a Single 1% Down Day in 2012

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

A little flurry of buying in the closing 5 minutes tacked on 2 S&P points and took the major indexes off the lows.  Only the Russell 2000 finished with a greater than 1% loss (1.4%) as it has been relatively weak versus the senior indexes for the past few sessions.   While today was the "worst day of the year" – it was quite a low bar as the previous biggest loss on the S&P 500 was -0.57%.

The S&P 500 held well above the 10 day moving average (didn't even really touch it) and did not even attempt to fill the gap from last Friday's employment report.  The teflon market rolls on for now.  Specul...



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ETF Selector

ETFs Skid On Greece (VGK, EWG, FXE, DIA, SPY)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears

After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.

After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.

Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

True Religion Falls Apart At The Seams After Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT

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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 2/10/2012

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisXBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.CMISTRONGBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Cummins, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.NTGRBUYProjected value continues to rise for NETGEAR while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also i...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 6th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."  

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/30/2012

Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position. AA Money No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position. Last week P&L - 310.00 We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium! FAS Money Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though! Last week P&L - $4277.00 IWM Money A decent week in this virtual portfo...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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