Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
The payroll survey shows a net gain of 248,000 jobs vs. an expectation of 215,000 jobs. Last month was revised up by 69,000 to 180,000. The six-month string of plus 200,000 jobs remains broken.
Last month the household survey had a gain in employment of only 16,000. That number was not revised up.
This month the household survey shows a respectable gain of 232,000, pretty much in line with the establishment survey.
Nonetheless the household survey over the past six months has been much weaker than the establishment survey. One or the other is apt for some serious revisions.
The labor force fell by 97,000. Those not in the labor force increased by 315,000. This follows last month’s increase of those not in the labor force of 268,000.
The civilian labor force rose by 217,000. It would take that increase in employment to hold the unemployment rate steady.
Thus, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% primarily on the basis of people dropping out of the labor force.
All things considered, this was a pretty strong report.
BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
- Nonfarm Payroll: +248,000 – Establishment Survey
- Employment: +232,000 – Household Survey
- Unemployment: -329,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: -174,000 – Household Survey
- Voluntary Part-Time Work: +35,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 at 5.9% – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 12.0% – Household Survey
- Civilian Non-institutional Population: +217,000
- Civilian Labor Force: -97,000 – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force: +315,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate: -0.1 at 62.7 – Household Survey
Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate …
