22 Predictions

Things are happening so fast these days that I thought it would be fun to try and think about what the world might look like in the next 10 to 15 years.

Here’s a list of 22 things that might or might not happen in the future.

• Tesla investors are proven right. The company changes the way the world works.
• Draft Kings and Fan Duel merge to fight off Penn National Gaming and Barstool. Draft Duel purchases Rally Road.
• Patrick Mahomes doesn’t win another Super Bowl.
• The combined market caps of bitcoin ($967 billion) and ethereum ($223 billion) pass gold ($10 trillion) and silver ($1.5 trillion). Anthony Pompliano becomes a part-owner of a professional sports team
• Digital concerts are 20% of overall concert sales.
• A video game company is a top 10 stock by market cap.
• People get tired of superhero movies.
• Interest rates never rise enough to offer investors an attractive rate of return. Structured notes and other instruments rise in popularity.
• Consumer prices rise meaningfully higher, as do wages. A debate rages over the effects of all the stimulus checks.
• iBuyers represent more than one-fifth of all home sales.
• Market crashes happen quicker and more frequently. Down 30% is the new down 20%.
• We look back on digital art as the 21st-century version of the beanie baby bubble.
• Roaring Kitty, aka Keith Gill, appears on Dancing With the Stars.
• Alternative investments pick up steam. Alto IRA is purchased by Fidelity.
• Passive’s portion of total fund assets has grown from 14% in 2001 to 52% today. (H/t Jeffrey Ptak) It will continue to take share in the next decade, but at a much slower pace, never eclipsing 60%.
• Long-term valuations don’t mean revert. The CAPE never gets below 15 for any meaningful amount of time.
• The Dow hits 100,000 in 15 years. That’s an 8% compounded annual growth rate.
• Disney gets into the movie theater business (Ben’s idea).
• Netflix buys Reddit. Uses their algorithm to build what Quibi couldn’t.
• Clubhouse is bought by Twitter or Spotify in the next year
• Self-driving cars never meaningfully materialize
• The world catches up to Amazon. AWS is spun out as the crown jewel and the retail business disappoints investors.