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Saturday, May 4, 2024

Real GDI Provides Strong Recession Warning

Courtesy of Mish.

Yesterday the BEA released its Third Estimate for Second Quarter GDP.

The third (final) estimate bumped up the prior estimate from 1.1% to 1.4%. The BEA changed the name from final to third because GDP is subject to revisions years or even decades later.

Diving into the report we see “Real Gross Domestic Income ” GDI went from +0.2% to -0.2%. Is that significant? Let’s take a look.

Third Estimate of Second Quarter GDP

gdp-2016-09-29

DI and GDP are two measures of the same thing. Over time they equal. Since the data sources are different, they frequently diverge for a while.

Business Insider has a nice article that explains the difference: FORGET GDP: Here’s the new way Wall Street is measuring the US economy.

Note: The following snips are from May 30, 2015. The generalities are correct, the assessments as to what are happening now are incorrect.


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