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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Federal Reserve Chair Janet YellenGlobal Inflation Mystery Risks Making Central Bankers Bystanders (Bloomberg)

Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve is “reasonably confident” it can drive up consumer prices. Mario Draghi says his European Central Bank’s stimulus has already “proven so far to be potent.” The Bank of England reckons inflation is “likely to return” to its target within two years.

While not quite declarations of victory, such statements show policy makers’ optimism that record-low interest rates and bond-buying will be enough to return inflation to the 2 percent range most of them eye.

The unemployed are dropping out like flies (CNBC)

At a time when 8.5 million Americans still don't have jobs, some 40 percent have given up even looking.

The revelation, contained in a new survey Wednesday showing how much work needs to be done yet in the U.S. labor market, comes as the labor force participation rate remains mired near 37-year lows.

Tourist Spending in Japan Is At a Two-Decade High (Bloomberg)

Record spending by foreign tourists is providing a timely boost to the world’s third-largest economy.

Spending by visitors jumped to the highest level in at least 20 years, adding about 0.1 percentage points to Japan's gross domestic product, data showed. That’s no small change for a country that’s trying to claw itself out of decades of economic stagnation.

Why it might pay to listen to a Fed old timer’s tantrum warning (Market Watch)

Unless the name is Ben Bernanke or Alan Greenspan, ex-Fed guys don’t always grab your attention.

But Lawrence Lindsey, who was at the Fed in the 1990s, made a few people sit up and take notice after firing off some spicy comments at a panel discussion yesterday. He blasted away at the current Fed, saying it’s pushing its luck when it comes to normalizing interest rates. And rates at zero, with unemployment at 5.4%? Madness!

China’s Bocom acquires Brazil’s Banco BBM (FT)

Bank of Communications, China’s fifth-largest commercial 


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Dear Phil, I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership. It is hard for me to follow all evening as I am in Tokyo but I can join you at the beginning of the market and read the next day.

- Tokyolife


Phil - DIA 107 Calls. As suggested I am taking the money and running to home depot for some shelter supplies! This is the grand finale of several successful trades from you through this roller-coster and as you have further suggested it is time for me to sit back and relax in cash. May even be able to talk my wife into the premium membership after these intelligent trades in a stupid market.

- DOStrade


Against all prognostics (bears) Phil pointed in the morning the correct direction, and in middle of day he pointed the possible move to 2.5% Incredible… I'm starting to serious believe on the program trading and the human nature behind the programing those "trade-bots".

- Spider


Thanks for the USO mention, Phil, 140% on my USO lottery ticket in 12 hours, and no hesitation in taking the money and running — you have trained us well. Sometimes it's teaching, but with this kind of stuff, where you get whipped like a dog if you let 250% profit melt away, it's definitely training. Happy Fourth!!!

- Zeroxzero


Phil, I have the SRS 2011 $7.50 short puts you recommended awhile back. I sold them for $2.20 and now $1.51 (up 31%) although SRS has been down since inception. This was a nice mellow way to play it like you said, thanks.

- Jomptien


Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane! Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda. Please accept my complete appreciation.

- Seeking Truth


100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!

- SSDirk


On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman


You may wonder if anyone gets anything out of you seminars (or may not wonder). Anyway, I almost never day trade because of my job. Today, I was home due to the snow and since I was behind by 2 weeks on watching your recorded seminars I though I would watch one of them. I set up my pivot point charts in TOS to match the ones in your seminar and made the QQQ trade from this morning. I only bought 5 puts. While I watched the seminar, I would pause then switch back and forth and watch the live QQQ chart. I ended up stopping out for a $170 gain, but it was pretty cool to have the dip and recovery at the same time I was learning the art of stopping out when a pivot line was taken out.

- rj_jarboe


Hey Phil - writing to thank you! First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable! I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.

- Bcfla


Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )

- Iflantheman & Gel1


PSW – Price/Value; The value of PSW on a regular basis exceeds by far the price of the annual subscription. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor.

- Winston


Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts. You have so many of these awesome little tricks in your playbook that it really amazes me. I toally love your analogy by the way: Do you want insurance that you have to pay for, or do you want insurance that pays you?

- Craigzooka


I have been reading the "free" PSW for about a year and have always liked Phil's style as it closely resembled the way I like to trade (mostly naked put options). I have been a paid subscriber for about 5 weeks and I have been learning a lot from Phil and other members. I had made some money on Phil's "free" ideas in the past and I joined because one of Phil's futures ideas paid for my subscription within the same day (NG). Phil deserved my subscription and I was eager to learn more. I just did a quick tally and within the last 5 weeks the ideas that I chose to follow from Phil generated over 25K in options profits and 12K in futures profits (some of my trades were more conservative than what Phil's had suggested). I have a lot to learn, experience and confidence to gain. Thanks again Phil and Successful Trading to all.

- Verreaul


Hey Phil, Your HOV suggestion about 3 months ago basically paid for my Philstockworld subscription for years to come. My average cost is about $1.

- Ether


Hey Phil -- I want to thank you every chance I get for helping me to grow my previous portfolio to being profitable enough to pay off some debts my family had and left me with $1,000 left to use in the markets. You should know that your premium membership is amazing on many levels, You and your readers offer a ton of economic and statistical analysis that I was able to use in my clerical level job in finance. It's a shame that someone as talented and honest as you is not on television each night providing a true service to the investing public and not the clowns and hucksters that are talking up their books to dump on retail investors. Sorry for the long post. I had to say something to you that I never thought I would have the opportunity to. You helped put my family in an almost debt-free life through the stock and option plays that I made during my time as a customer of your service and that has made us very happy. You are a good man and I wish you and your family many years of joy and happiness. I wish I could do ads for you!

- DaveJ


Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

- Neverworkagain


Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

- Ricpar


/NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.

- JohnO


Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.

- JBaker


Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.

- Tchayipov


hil, I hit my targets for the year in my 401K (thanks in no small part to your site), so I cashed out of all positions a couple of weeks ago. Feels good... I'm conservative with this money –looking for 2% per month, which i've been able to do… thx.

- Lunar


Phil - It is nice being more discipline with my trading. Generally, I am out earlier than most, but my results, overall, are much better than they were when I was trying to squeeze 80 cups of lemonade out of one lemon! On the other side, I am learning the value of rolling and turning losses into non-losses or small gains. I so appreciate the time you have spent with me and others who have benefited greatly from your knowledge. Thank you!

- Dclark41


Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

- MrMocha


Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. YTD profit is about $750,000. Thanks!

- Gel1


Thanks Phil, for banging the table on getting short and getting to cash. Usually when this happens in the market I am freaking out but I actually made money this week thanks to you. That HOV trade was a great way to re-deploy some of my cash.

- Julian


Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

- JWick1981


Newer member here, but just wanted to say thank you too. I've learned so much and I hope you'll be around for a long time helping us learn along the way.

- Where


I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.

- David


Phil, I've got to give you props on the ICE spread play. Tremendous call! I jumped in on Friday when you made the recommendation and closed out today. Nice 57% return ($2,300) over a mere 3 trading days! This is why I dig your site!

- Samlawyer




News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Ending the Minimum-Wage Subsidy (Barry Ritholtz, BloombergView)

This week, Los Angeles became the third major West Coast city and the biggest in the U.S. to agree to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, an increase that will go into effect by 2020. Los Angeles follows Seattle, which will require employers with 500 workers or more to pay $15  by 2017. San Francisco will require the $15 hourly minimum by 2018. 

The Seattle increase in particular has caused all sorts of analytical errors from people who should know better. Seattle Magazine ran one article with the headline “Why Are So Many Restaurants Closing Lately?,” which cited the wage increase as among the reasons. This was quite surprising, given the lack of any notable rise in restaurant closings, which are running at about the same pace as before the minimum wage increase. Even more telling, permits for new restaurants are rising. The data overwhelmingly disproves the assertion that the minimum wage increase is leading to restaurant closings — or is discouraging people from opening new ones.

Housing Starts Rise 20%…Still Well Below Normal (Value Walk)

The NAHB HMI(Housing Market Index) and Single Family Starts were reported the past two days. The HMI ($XHB) at 54 and Starts at 733,000 indicate that a  positive trend remains in place. Many appeared to have been surprised by this and talk of a 20% rise in Housing Starts. But, if you look at the chart below, you will see an uptrend created by choppy monthly reports.  That the uptrend from early 2013 simply continues is all that one can say at the moment.

Housing Starts

ECB President Mario DraghiGreek Conundrum Puts ECB in Tight Spot as Bailout Talks Progress (Bloomberg)

European Central Bank policy makers will discuss Greek bank aid on Wednesday in a chore that is getting more uncomfortable every week.

The Governing Council will meet in Frankfurt to debate whether to tighten rules on Greek access to Emergency Liquidity Assistance as the country veers toward default. At the same time, officials are well aware their decision could worsen the political crisis just


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Wednesday: Japan GDP Not Strong Enough – Now What?

Japan grew 0.6% in Q1.

That's a 2.4% annualized growth rate but, of course, that's priced in Yen, which are down 14.8% since last year so, in fact, Japan's economy, in Dollar terms, is losing 12.4% from last year.  This is not the headline you'll hear in the MSM though, where the overwhelming message is "Don't Worry, Be Happy" and, in fact, Robert Shiller just wrote an article telling people to cheer the F'ck up to avoid a Depression.  

As you can see from the chart above, adding 80Tn Yen worth of debt in the last 5 years has only added 25Tn Yen worth of GDP and the current 495Tn Yen GDP is still well below 2007's 505Tn Yen and, at the time 505Tn Yen was worth $5.5Tn but now, 495Tn Yen is only worth 41.25Tn so, in Dollar terms (or any steady currency), the GDP of Japan has actually DROPPED 25% since 2007 and this quarter's "boost" of 0.6% comes on the back of an additional 5% drop in they Yen since Q4 of last year.  

Yet no one will mention this in the MSM.  Why?  Well first of all it's complicated and even NYTimes readers' eyes glaze over when you start doing math.  Secondly, it doesn't fit the narrative that our Corporate Masters want you to swallow – that QE is working and more QE is better and all that matters is that the stock market goes up and everything else will be fine.  

I ranted about this in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar and you can watch a replay of that HERE, so I won't get into it again.  We also made $100/contract live trading the Russell Futures and our bullish trade on Gasoline Futures (/RB) that we played into the close is already up $1,000 per contract this morning as /RB is back over $2.02 already (you're welcome).

SPY DAILYSo, moving on from Japan (and I sent out an Member's Alert this morning with in-depth coverage and trade ideas), as you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, our record highs are still coming on record low volumes and that means that…
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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The Economy Might Just Need 55,000 New Jobs Per Month to Keep Reducing Labor Force Slack (Bloomberg)

Macquarie analyst David Doyle thinks the U.S. economy doesn’t need to add too many jobs for the unemployment rate to keep moving downwards.

Housing starts surge 20% in April (Market Watch)

In a show of housing-market vitality, the pace of construction started on new U.S. homes in April jumped to the strongest level since the onset of the Great Recession, the government reported Tuesday.

Construction started on new U.S. homes sprang up 20.2% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.14 million. That’s the biggest monthly percentage gain in more than 24 years and the highest level since November 2007, the U.S. Commerce Department reported.

Housing Starts Surge to Highest Since Nov 2007, Permits At 7 Year Highs (Zero Hedge)

Following two ugly months of dramatically missed expectations, Housing Starts exploded to 'recovery' highs (highest since Nov 2007) jumping 20.2% MoM to 1.135million (against 1.015 exp.). This is the 2nd biggest MoM jump in history. Both single-family (3rd biggest MoM surge since the crisis peak) and multi-family starts surged. Permits also surged in April (jumping 10.1% MoM – the most since 2012) to 1.143 million (well above expectations) and the highest since June 2008. These huge mal-investment spikes make perfect sense in light of the collapse in lumber prices (and thus demand).

 

Los Angeles Raises Minimum Wage to $15 an Hour (NY Times)

LOS ANGELES — The nation’s second-largest city voted on Tuesday to increase its minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2020, in what is perhaps the most significant victory so far in the national push to raise the minimum wage.

The increase — which the Los Angeles City Council passed in a 14-1 vote — comes as workers across the country are rallying for higher wages, and several large companies, including Facebook and Walmart, have moved to raise their lowest wages

Hedge Fund AUM Hits A Record High Of $2.2 Trillion (Value Walk)

Hedge funds posted their fourth consecutive month of


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Tuesday: Euro Drops 1.5% as ECB Promises MORE FREE MONEY!!!

Embedded image permalinkBad news is great news!  

The Greek talks have stalled, England's CPI is deflating, German GDP slipped to 0.3% in Q1 and German Investor Sentiment (ZEW) dove to a 5-month low, dropping over 20% in one month to 41.9.  That and collapsing bond prices were the last straw for the ECB, who announced this morning they would "front-load" their $75Bn monthly bond-buying into May and June, to avoid having to bother over the holidays.   

This is a fun way the ECB can double up on stimulus without SAYING they are doubling up on stimulus:

“Even though this is just front-loading, it is effectively an increase in the size of quantitative easing, even if just for a short period of time,” said Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at BNY Mellon.  “It shows that within the existing framework, the ECB is willing and able to be incredibly flexible,” Mr. Derrick said.

Separately on Tuesday, Christian Noyer, the head of France’s central bank and a member of the ECB governing council, said the ECB was ready to go further if needed to meet its inflation target.  “The purchase program will continue until the end of September 2016 and beyond if we do not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation,” he said.  

Does anyone besides me think it's strange to announce more QE WHILE the markets are making record highs?  Anyone???  

We have indeed fully embraced the worst kind of Voodoo Economics, with the World's Central Banks creating endless supplies of money out of thin air by simply writing checks to buy bonds which enable the Sovereign nations to go endlessly into debt.  There have been, so far, no consequences for this behavior and even countries like Greece, who have no possibility whatsoever of being able to pay off their debts, are lent more and more money.

As you can see from the chart, household debt and Government debt have climbed…
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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Income gap: CEOs make 373 times average worker pay (CNBC)

The numbers are in on 2014 CEO compensation, and as the old Seinfeld joke goes, they are real and they are spectacular. CEO pay is also controversial as the income gap widens in America.

The average S&P 500 company CEO made 373 times the salary of the average production and non-supervisory worker in 2014, up from 331 times in 2013, according to the AFL-CIO.

Here's the story behind that huge disconnect in the stock market (Business Insider)

There's been a growing disconnect in stocks. 

Over the last few weeks, we've highlighted versions of the following chart from Bank of America Merril Lynch, which shows that US equity funds have seen massive outflows this year while stocks continue to climb to record highs

May 18 COTD

Wall Street is on the verge of saying 'recession' (Business Insider)

Wall Street has almost said it.

In a note to clients on Monday morning, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid comes within inches of saying the word "recession" to describe the US economy's fate during the first half of the year.

Graphing The Evolution Of The World's Debt Addiction (Zero Hedge)

It's no secret that the world is addicted to debt.

China for instance, has an astounding $28 trillion debt load that amounts to 282% of GDP, while the country's local governments are now undertaking a multi-trillion yuan refi initiative in order to cut the debt servicing costs on a mountain on high interest loans they acquired off balance sheet in an effort to skirt official borrowing limits.

Bank of America is forecasting a ‘scary summer’ for the stock market (Market Watch)

Investors might want to add a little cash and some gold to their portfolio’s summer outfit.

So say analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who are forecasting a grim summer for stocks this year. In other words, it might be wise to apply ample dollops of market-correction block in addition to any sunscreen you might wear.


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Phil's Favorites

Mario Draghi’s Slippery Downward Slope

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.

Harris&Ewing F.W. Grand store, Washington, DC 1925

Mario Draghi made another huge faux pas Thursday, but it looks like the entire world press has become immune to them, because it happens all the time, because they don’t realize what it means, and because they have a message if not a mission to sell. But still, none of these things makes it alright. Nor does Draghi’s denying it was a faux pas to begin with.

And while that’s very worrisome, ‘the public’ appear to be as numbed and dumbed down to this as the media themselves are -largely due to ’cause and effect’, no doubt-. We saw an account of a North Korean defector yesterday lamenting that her country doesn’t have a functioning press, and we thought: get in line.

...



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Zero Hedge

Have You Heard Of India's Newest Gold Ponzi Scheme?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Secular Investor.

An interesting fact has recently crossed the newswires, as India’s banking system is ready to start paying its clients interest on physical gold.

The Indian Minister of Finance, Arun Jaitley, has revealed new guidelines for the financial system, and the proposed new rules are somewhat surprising, even though the minister had already hinted in an earlier speech that 'gold could become an even more important asset during his tenure'.

Banks would not only be ...



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Chart School

eToro Review

Courtesy of Declan.

763 followers 76 copiers A solid jump in both followers and copiers from the start of the month. This was in large part to my top-10 ranking in their People screener. Having said that, last week finished very poorly for me. Overtraded and wa...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar & Crude Oil reversing ST trends, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King Dollar and Crude Oil have been have had little correlation over the past year, as each has traded in pretty much opposite directions.

Over the past 9 months King Dollar has had a historical rally and the opposite is true for Crude Oil.

Of late Crude hit its 23% Fibonacci resistance line, based upon last summers weekly closing highs and weekly closing low on 3/13/15.

Joe Friday just the facts….Crude oil is making an attempt to break short-term steep rising support this week and King Dollar is attempting to break short-term steep falling resistance.

Crude oil just experienced its 7th largest 2-month rally in its...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bullish technical picture appears to trump cautious fundamentals

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Stocks closed last week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 notching a new high, despite lackluster economic data and growth. I have been suggesting in previous articles that stocks appeared to be coiling for a significant move but that the ingredients were not yet in place for either a major breakout or a corrective selloff. However, bulls appear to be losing patience awaiting their next definitive catalyst, and the higher-likelihood upside move may now be underway. Yet despite the bullish technical picture, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look even more defensive.

In this weekly update, I give ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 18th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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