PSW’s Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 9-21-16

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here!

Major Topics:

00:03:45 Checking on the Markets 
00:04:28 Seeking Alpha: Market News
00:07:03 Checking on the Markets
00:10:38 Fed dot plot
00:13:45 Trade Ideas and Money Opinions
00:21:23 Rate Increase Impact on Oil
00:22:30 Currency Charts
00:24:33 DX Trade Ideas
00:28:44 Interest Rates
00:31:54 TLT Charts
00:32:22 TLT Trade Ideas
00:33:58 Wells Fargo
00:40:33 More Trade Ideas
00:46:19 VXX Trade Ideas
00:48:07 CBI
00:51:36 FOMC Meetings
00:52:16 Petroleum Status Report
00:58:50 Checking on the Markets
00:59:17 Change in GDP
01:00:23 Federal Funds rate
01:02:22 More on FOMC Meetings
01:04:22 Checking on the Markets
01:06:18 NVAX
01:11:46 Active Trader
01:14:04 MSFT
01:18:50 Other Trade Ideas
01:21:57 5% Portfolio
01:28:20 Short-Term Portfolio
01:29:23 Long-Term Portfolio
01:33:38 MON
01:34:29 Butterfly Portfolio
01:39:35 More Trade Ideas

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.

- Pstas


Hey I just did a nice options trade on LL for $800 (50%) gain thanks to this site, so… not bad for my first day! An hour of reading you guys and I already paid for two months subscription! Thank you!

- lchu


I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…

- Kwan


Your discussion during your web seminar on SPX and SDS today was great. It really let me see how you look at the numbers and use the 5% rule to see where inflection points occur and what the bands look like. This was incredibly helpful. I actually sold out of my small short position at a good profit ( which was more a bet on a short term fluctuation rather than a hedge after listening to you) and will look more deeply at my portfolio and how to hedge it. In addition your view on hedging was also very helpful looking at the leverage you can get w/ a small spread, and protect portfolio against a big move against me. Thank you for your sharing this. Very helpful.

- Batman


/NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.

- JohnO


Phil - Wow…wow. The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering. It's this type of experience that I really hope to develop. I'm afraid I still can't see the moves, but I WILL learn. I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this place. Please keep it going!

- Where


Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!

- Iflantheman


I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

- Pharmboy


Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

- HJ Kobbeman


I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.

- Pharmboy


I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!). Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night. The webinars (despite technical difficulties) are extremely useful. Thanks for your coaching … it has made me a consistently profitable trader, with a better understanding of what I do not know.

- Aquila


Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.

- Winston


Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

- Acd54


USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

- Ksone88


Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !

- Gel1


Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….

- Barfinger


thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….

- Kwan


I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instict which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

- Autolander


I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!

- Jerseyside


Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

- Bjkeck


Phil, thank you for the thorough response(s). I joined this group last week to take my education to the next level. the school i am involved with very good at calling out levels but very little live trading and little help in managing a position going against you. I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. learned a lot this week. thank you!

- DawnR


Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels. Your levels: Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402 My sceen is showing: Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404

- Jordan


Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!

- Ban2


Phil, I wanted to thank you for all of your teaching, advice, and guidance. Because of you I don't chase, don't worry about missed chances, and play things much more selectively. Yesterday's /ES and /TF and today /CL are my first futures plays of the month. Thanks Phil. (Out of /TF and /ES yesterday with a nice gain)

- Japarikh


Hey Phil, Your HOV suggestion about 3 months ago basically paid for my Philstockworld subscription for years to come. My average cost is about $1.

- Ether


Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke

- Coke


Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you! I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure. I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options. You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

- Redfern1


Phil – In the event of a mkt meltdown, which of the indices, in your opinion do you think has the most potential for % move down. I'm looking at call options on SDS and the DXD. Any thoughts? Ideas? Thanks .. and thanks for being a great teacher! I've learned so much in only a month!

- Louis631


HOTT / Got great trades with it: Enter 6.75 at open, out at 7.18 (avg) at 10:13 Reentered at 7.00 and out all 7.11 few minutes ago- Was a small play but I collected enoght for next month PSW subscription.

- Spider


Very nice in and out on those USO puts again, easy way to get the subscription covered in just a couple of hours. Thanks again Phil and everyone here contributing to such intelligent and informative discussion! I have wasted countless hours reading "professional newsletters" and message board blather over the years. Have learned a great deal here in a very short time. I have sent out a number of invites to friends and family for stockworld!

- Eyezz




Faulty Logic Thursday – Bill Gross and I are Verklempt

Verklempt:  so shocked and overwhelmed that we cannot speak

That's the reaction Bill Gross and I had to the FOMC statement yesterday (and you can hear our LIVE reporting at the time in our Webinar Replay).  CNBC says Steve Leasman was also verklempt as that Fed report was indeed shocking.  Yes, we knew they might not raise rates (but I was sure enough to make it yesterday's headline that they wouldn't) but we didn't think they would LOWER their rate forecast by 30% over the next 3 years – that was STUNNING! 

Note the red numbers highlighting the changes on the projected Federal Funds Rates – that was the shocker in yesterday's report and that was why I was wrong yesterday – because we were supposed to end the year at 0.9% average and that means we NEEDED to hike now because putting off the hike wouldn't give it time to get the average in line with the Fed's targets – it did not occur to Bill Gross or I that they would suddenly lower the targets.  

This is not just putting off one raise, this is putting of 1/3 of all potential raises for the next 36 months and, before you grab your pompoms to celebrate infinite free money – think about the reason they are taking this action.   Look at the top of that chart – long-term GDP projections are down 10%, from 2% to 1.8% – how is that a good thing?  Inflation is 2% so the only "growth" in our economy is inflationary growth – that's pathetic!  

us-pension-funds-corporate-funding-gapNot as pathetic as Japan (yet) where the new crime against savers by the Central Banksters is being called "Yield Curve Control" where the BoJ will target 0% yield for the 10-year Japanese Government Bond, which had been negative for months. So it’s trying to push up the 10-year yield a smidgen. Shorter maturities would still sport a negative yield. This would steepen the yield curve. In effect, the BoJ will control the yield curve.  By the end of next year, it might own 50% of all JGBs.  As noted by Wolf Richter:  

"Why even pretend there’s still a bond market?  Maybe it’s just for


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*** Reminder ***

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

This has been going on since before you were born, fam.

Cartoon via Stefan Cheplick

 





The BIS Warns on China

 

The BIS Warns on China

Courtesy of John Mauldin

I’ve been saying for the past couple years that the next recession here in the US will probably be triggered by an external macro event or cascade of events, coming out of Europe or China. Today’s Outside the Box sharpens our focus on China, which had already got quite a lot sharper with Michael Pettis’s piece in Outside the Box on Sept. 2.

Today’s post comes from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the London Telegraph. He is commenting on the recently released quarterly report of the Bank for International Settlements (“the central banks’ bank”), in which the BIS repeats Pettis’s warning that China faces escalating risk of a major debt and banking crisis.

The BIS is also rightly concerned about spillover from China to the global economy. After noting that outstanding loans in China have reached $28 trillion – as much as the commercial banking loan books of the US and Japan combined – Ambrose adds, “The scale is enough to threaten a worldwide shock if China ever loses control. Corporate debt alone has reached 171pc of GDP, and it is this that is keeping global regulators awake at night.”

Total Chinese debt reached 255% of GDP at the end of 2015, a jump of 107% in the past eight years – and still rising fast. Every year, China’s leadership promises to rein in debt growth, and every year the growth just keeps accelerating. That is because China’s GDP growth is fueled by debt, and that debt is becoming increasingly inefficient in producing GDP.

Does China still have the resources to deal with this issue? The answer is a qualified yes – but then there may not be the resources to deal with the other little items on China’s shopping list. The New Silk Road that China seems to be actually in the process of building is estimated to cost $1 trillion, and that’s without cost overruns. Plus, the Chinese leadership has promised massive spending on the interior part of the country to bring up the quality of people’s lives there.

One trillion here and one trillion there, and pretty soon you have run through your reserves and are getting into monetization problems; and then you have all sorts of…
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Wednesday Wipeout – BOJ and FOMC Fail to Please Investors – Market Falls

Image result for tomorrow's headlines todayOh sorry, that's tomorrow's headline!  

Silly me, sometimes I get ahead of myself.  As I've been saying all week(s), the market is overbought and the Fed is boxed in and even the bat-shit crazy Bank of Japan didn't lower rates this morning and the only reason they were able to hold if is because they have been assured that our Fed will be raising rates at 2pm, effectively devaluing the Yen against the Dollar anyway.  

Still, not everyone is as certain as I am which is why I called for a short on the Nikkei Futures (/NKD) in our Live Member Chat Room this morning (7:02), saying:

We're back at 2,140, of course, along with 18,125, 4,825 and 1,230 – exactly where we were yesterday so it's just a reset by the TradeBots ahead of the Fed but now it's a lot more dangerous to short those futures, though still fun if you are careful enough to keep VERY TIGHT STOPS above those lines.   /NKD blasted to 16,800 and now back to 16,700 as the Dollar pulls back, still a good short there.  

As you can see, the Nikkei has already dropped 65 points and, at $5 per point, per contract that's a gain of $325 per contract for our Members and the Egg McMuffins are paid for already this morning (stop is now 16,650 to lock in $250)!  The other levels are the same ones we've been watching all week and we're still looking for the S&P in particular to give us 2,120, on the way to 2,035.

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecastDon't forget though, I'm an outlier in my prediction and our confidence in a rate hike today was shaken by yet another downward adjustment to our GDP outlook by the Atlanta Fed yesterday – from 3.5% to 2.9%, which is a 20% downgrade in GDP outlook since the beginning of the month – that's a very scary trend!  


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Janet Yellen’s “Footnote 8″ – The Negative Rate ‘Smoking Gun’ That Everyone Missed

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Mauldin Economics

Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech was widely reported, so I’ll spare you the summary.

What wasn’t widely reported was her Footnote 8. Yellen cited approving a mathematical formula that could put interest rates on autopilot. The Fed hasn’t yet followed the rule, but its presence in Yellen’s paper suggests its use is on the table.

Footnote 8 lays the groundwork for negative rates

For Yellen to adopt any fixed rule would be a major strategy shift. She has declined to use the so-called “Taylor Rule” favored by some economists, claiming the Fed should be flexible but “data-dependent.”

The rule described in Yellen’s Footnote 8 uses variables like core PCE inflation, the Fed’s inflation target, and the unemployment rate to calculate an optimal Federal Funds rate target. If the Fed had been following the rule during the last recession, they would have dropped rates to -9%.

Yes, you read that right, -9%.

As a point of reference, the ECB right now is at -0.4%. Europe is now experiencing all kinds of bizarre consequences.

Yet, here’s our own Fed chair bringing up a method that would send rates far lower.

To be fair, Yellen didn’t say she endorses this idea or wants to adopt it. She concedes it would have been impossible to drop rates that far in 2008.

So why even bring it up?

A generous interpretation: Yellen wanted to demonstrate that the Fed’s control over interest rates has limits as a tool for stimulating economic growth. And in her speech, she does go on from there to talk about other policy tools.

Still, it was no accident that she mentioned the rule for autopilot rates. This was another in a series of small nods to the idea that negative rates might be appropriate in some situations.

The Fed’s muddled assumptions

The Yellen Fed’s mental status gets clearer every day. They think that their crazed ideas—ZIRP, QE, Operation Twist, and the rest—are what brought the economy back from the brink of collapse. Last December’s one-and-done rate hike was the victory lap. They think everything is fine now and


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Zero Hedge

Bridgewater Calculates How Much Time Central Banks Have Left

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One of the key themes that have emerged in the past year is that, having loaded up their balance sheets with tens of trillions in various assets, central banks are "running out of road." While it is a topic extensively discussed on these pages, going all the way back to 2014, a good summary of the practical limitations on central banks comes from the following series of charts from Deutsche Bank.

The first slide looks at the bond transmission mechanism, namely...



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ValueWalk

Trump/Clinton Economic Plans Revisited, Extremely Different

By Gary D. Halbert. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Trump/Clinton Economic Plans Revisited, Extremely Different 

FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
September 27, 2016

  1. Trump’s Economic & Tax Plan Looks a Lot Like Ronald Reagan’s
  2. Clinton’s Economic & Tax Plan is a Lot Like Obama’s, But Worse
  3. Are You an Accredited Investor? If Yes, Let Us Know ASAP

Overview

For the last several years, the economy has ranked #1 among the greatest concerns expressed by most Americans. And as we all know, the state of the economy has a huge bearing on the investment markets. With that in mind, let’s take a look today at the latest economic and tax propo...



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Phil's Favorites

WTO Slashes Global Trade Forecast by 39% Since April: "Wake-Up Call" Says WTO Director

Courtesy of Mish.

Yesterday I commented Draghi Increases Risk of Global Trade Collapse With Brexit Tough Talk.

Today, the World Trade Organization (WTO), slashed its global trade forecast by 39%.

WTI director Roberto Azevedo issued a Trade Wake-Up Call noting trade estimates are below global growth estimates for the first time in 15 years.

The World Trade Organization cut its forecast for global trade growth this year by more than a...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver facing "bunch" of resistance, sentiment lofty

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at a chart on Silver, dating back to the early 1970’s. Silver created an important top at $50 in 1980, did it create another important top at the same price in 2011?

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Silver hit $50 in 2011, which was the highs back in 1980 and since then, has created a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Silver is now testing a bunch of resistance lines and its Fibonacci 61% retracement level at (1), wi...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

China Stemming Defaults Leaves Junk Bonds Hottest in 5 Years (Bloomberg)

China has stanched a string of defaults and speculation authorities will continue to stave off failures is leaving investors the most bullish on local junk bonds in five years, despite record maturities.

BlackRock Issues Warning on Treasuries as Fed Moves Toward Hike (Bloomberg)

BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager, said investors should ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!



Date Found: Sunday, 27 March 2016, 02:31:30 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cach...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Mapping The Market

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

Via Jean-Luc:

"When you let the free market take over, the little people get screwed and bankers get rich. Chile tried privatizing retirement plans and surprise, surprise, fund manager ate the profits… Pretty sure the results would be the same here..."  ~ Jean-Luc

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

By KEVIN DRUM, Mother Jones

Among free-market fans, Chile's privatized pension plan has long been held up as a model for us to follow. The problem, as the Financial Times notes today, is ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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