Factual Friday – Earnings Iceberg Dead Ahead!

Wow, what a rally!

Yeah, yeah – go markets, BUYBUYBUY!!!  OK, now that we have that out of our system, how about we take a deep breath and try to get real?  This week has been the best week for the markets since late February and that's nice BUT, in early March, we gave back 50% of the gains.  

While we are bound to respect the technicals over our strong bounce lines – we are very happy to remain mainly in cash ahead of the earnings reports.  

As you can see from this Zacks chart - and as I noted on Benzinga Radio the other day, Q3 earnings are going to suck.  Alcoa (AA) kicked things off with a bomb last night and the economic hits are just going to keep on coming as companies around the World report on the damage that's been caused by our anemic Global economy.  

You don't have to take my word for it – just ask Nobel prize-winning economist, Joe Stiglitz:

As I said on Benzinga the other morning, how can earnings be good?  Oil will be a disaster, of course (7% of the S&P), Banking is having trouble with low rates squeezing lending margins and M&A slowing down considerably (16% of the S&P) and Retail (16%) is sputtering, Manufacturing orders are the worst we've seen since the last crash and Materials (2.5%) were in a death spiral until this week (and the banks lend to these guys too).  

Expectations/Market Prices simply haven't come down enough to reflect that – certainly not after this week's rally.   Is this market really priced for two big, negative quarters?

The Energy drag notwithstanding, there is not much growth elsewhere either, with earnings growth for half of the 16 Zacks sectors expected to be in the negative for the quarter. The strong U.S. dollar and China-centric global growth questions are some of the key issues that will figure prominently in the earnings reports and management’s outlook for the last quarter of the year.

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I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.

- Brenteaz

Thanks Phil, for banging the table on getting short and getting to cash. Usually when this happens in the market I am freaking out but I actually made money this week thanks to you. That HOV trade was a great way to re-deploy some of my cash.

- Julian

In options trading, one must remain flexible with the ability to adjust to take advantage of the unexpected moves in the market. It is like chess - spend most of your time strategizing the next move. A good understanding of options is necessary to change direction and make adjustments as the market moves against you. I have a friend that honed his option skills while a member of Phil's elite membership over a period of two years. With the education acquired, he made over $2 Mil in that period, trading options and following the plays put on by Phil. If making money is your goal, then he is the go-to guy, as he knows option strategies better than anyone, and market timing is also a skill he has mastered.

- 1234gel

Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.

- JBaker

I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.

- Prof

Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

- Jromeha

I discovered PSW while reading up on the US economy and how it applies to all the poor folk of the world and to myself as a humble UK desk slave. This year I put time into learning options trading. I upgraded (with great administrative difficulty!) my stock dealing account to deal options. Now I am an avid reader of PSW and subscribed for voyeur membership. Initially feeling out of my depth struggling to keep up with the peculiar language of options traders, I unsubscribed feeling a little under confident and uncertain if the small stake I have to invest in options could generate enough to justify my PSW subscription. Nevertheless, I've benefited considerably from the member's material. From a small number of initial trades, I've exceeded profit targets enough to consider re-subscribing in some capacity. Thanks for the knowledge and more than anything I appreciate the human angle, the humour and the ecologically sympathetic approach rarely seen in other financial media. Best wishes all - Jon

- Jon

Phil – just wanted to say a sincere thank you for teaching me how to offset, hedge, roll, and not panic. My account is up 10% in the last two weeks, and far from panic, this is becoming great fun. Thanks again,

- Deano

I must add yet another paen to Phil's "cash and short" call, as my TZA shorts are past paying for Similac and Pampers and have now covered all doctors and Mt. Sinai hospital bills for young Charlotte, as TZA took the portfolio up 10%.

- Zeroxzero

As a fellow "low-end" investor I like Phil's Buy/Write strategy on solid stocks. Before I came here I loved to try to "figure things out" with very little success "TRYING TO FIGURE THINGS OUT"! I traded too much and fell in love with stocks that "should have done" what they didn't do. Now a majority of my accounts are in Buy/Writes suggested here or cash (waiting for a better time for more Buy/Writes). I use 15-20% of my total holding to short term trade and hedge. This is manageable with my full time job as a business owner. I have found Phil's system a more discipline way to achieve the returns I want without relying on my ability (more like inability to "figure things out").

- DCalrk41

I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.

- Pstas

Phil/CL-that play made a quick $500 per contract! Took all of 10 minutes! I want to thank you for helping me not just learn a bit about trading, but giving me some confidence and most of all a rewarding "hobby" to look forward to each day. I have had a few mistakes and losses along the way, but I have had some great wins too and I am now consistently making money trading futures and have even learned to go to sleep while holding a losing position knowing that tomorrow is always another opportunity to win again. So thanks again for your help and patience along the way.

- Craigsa620

Nice call on the QQQ puts this morning Phil. I bought 10 at .13 this morning for fun day trade. Just closed at .95. Sweet hedge for the day!

- RevTodd64

I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

- Pharmboy

Phil/ et al- Thanks for the answers to my spread questions last night, as I really needed that little piece of knowledge to crystallize my understanding of spreads. Your help is much appreciated and I have been doing really well for the last couple of months with fewer and fewer missteps as I embrace the PSW ways and watching my portfolios grow.

- Craigsa620

Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

- Oknoman

I am struck by several things over the last few days. First is how level-headed we all are as Greece and China develop. Second is how very helpful it is to see the different trading styles we have, partly because of personal preference and partly because of different stages of development and education. It's very helpful. Well-done, Phil, to have developed this community.

- Snow

Man, what a week: Bought C at 1.40, sold half at 1.59 (relatively big position), another quarter at 3.04 just now. Ran SKF down from 270 with one April put, still holding some 115's expiring in a couple days. I'm going to gamble this position like a champion Friday. Bought FAS at all sorts of levels and started cashing out. Long HOV, stock and some nickel calls for fun - Mocha up your buy-out from 5 to 8 and that's 10,900% return for the May-2.50's . Ha!

- Biodieselchris

I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!). Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night. The webinars (despite technical difficulties) are extremely useful. Thanks for your coaching … it has made me a consistently profitable trader, with a better understanding of what I do not know.

- Aquila

I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

- Zucko

Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!

- DCalrk41

Hey I just did a nice options trade on LL for $800 (50%) gain thanks to this site, so… not bad for my first day! An hour of reading you guys and I already paid for two months subscription! Thank you!

- lchu

Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!

- Jromeha

I cannot believe the success I have had in the last 6 months because of what I have learned here! It has been truly life changing. It's like the old adage about teaching someone how to fish instead of just giving them a fish. Thank you Phil, I am forever grateful and hope I have helped someone else along the way.

- Craigsa620

Phil - I got your earlier trade a month or so ago on MSFT 2015 32/37 BCS, selling 2015 30 puts. Nice up 75% now!

- Jomptien

GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

- Winston

The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!

- Gel1

Phil, did you by chance publish the weekly webinar on Youtube yet? I have been watching these and they are awesome. Unfortunately, I can't cut out of work to attend live webinars. Again, they are just awesome content – thank you.

- jcpdx

Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.

- mSquare

Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!


Blodget on Market History


Outside the Box: Blodget on Market History

By John Mauldin

I remember the first time I walked into Henry Blodget’s new startup, Business Insider, back in 2009. Twelve fresh-faced kids were crammed into a room about the size of my bedroom, pounding away on laptops, creating a new destination website. He took me over to a corner; we sat down in front of a few cameras; and he began shooting question after question at me, later turning the session into a series of interviews.

You walk into his office today and it’s still packed wall-to-wall with fresh-faced kids (the older I get the younger they look), but the offices are much larger, and it seemed to me last time that there had to be at least 150 people in them. But the interviews are still quick-paced, even if they’re now conducted in a special room, with upgraded equipment.

One of the things Business Insider is noted for is compelling headlines. They republish much of the work from Mauldin Economics, but they often come up with more interesting headlines for our content than we do. And they still produce a lot of original material as well.

This week’s Outside the Box is a brief note from Henry himself, with the snappy title “Market history is calling, and it’s saying stock performance will be crappy for another ~10 years.” Beyond the compelling headline is a look back at historical market performance and market cycles, with almost a dozen charts to illustrate Henry’s thesis. It’s a quick read, but investors should pay attention to his main premise: if you’re looking for returns that are north of zero, you’re going to have to be a better-than-average investor.

As an aside, I want to pass along my congratulations to Henry on the rather outsized offer (in the multiple nine figures) he has received from a German publisher for his business. I’ve always admired his determination and focus, and I enjoy watching another businessman prosper.

Now here’s a good one for you. I’m sitting in my dentist’s chair this morning, he’s checking on the laser-evisceration of my gums he performed last week, and he says, “You know, most older people have the opposite problem from you – they have too little in the

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Faltering Thursday – Here Come Those Tears Again

SPY 5 MINUTEAnd the struggle continues.  

As you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, this is the worst kind of "rally" where we get big volume sell-offs followed by low-volume, bot-driven pump jobs aimed to sucker the retailers into buying the dips so the guys driving the tradebots can dump more shares on them.  Wash, rinse and repeat until the big boys are all cashed out (we already are!) and then they pull the rug out and crash the market.

The crashing part will be easy – all they have to do is not prop it up but, for good measure, "THEY" can always send their minions out to TV stations with a few well-placed downgrades to really send things into a tailspin.  Suddenly, Russia bombing Turkey Syria, China's collapsing economy, Europe's slow economy, the refugee crisis, Fed raising rates, terrible US Jobs and Manufacturing numbers, Brazil or Venezuela's collapsing economies, Greece (again) or even our Debt Ceiling (again) will suddenly matter and the markets will quickly drop 10%.  

I was on Benzinga's Pre-Market Show yesterday morning talking about my value reasons for being short up here (S&P 2,000):

It's not that we're all bearish – we have a lot of material stocks and our portfolios are at record highs this week so THANK YOU manipulators – it's just that we think the stocks we already cashed out of have further to fall before they are "correctly priced" – like the many material stocks we stuck with when we cashed out the rest.  Having a materials-heavy portfolio this past week turned out to be the perfect way to play this bounce.  

In fact, today is the end of month 2 for our Option Opportunities Portfolio over at Seeking Alpha, where our goal is to make $5,000 a month (5%) in a $100,000 portfolio and I'm very happy to say that our closed positions are, in fact, up $14,905 (14.9%) after 60 days:

As you can see, we only had to close 12 positions, averaging better than $1,000 per position with an average hold time of just over 2 weeks but, as we do that, we've been putting…
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Risk Ratio Charts Breaking Out (relatively speaking)


Risk Ratio Charts Breaking Out (relatively speaking)

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

I won’t go so far as to say that these are the only charts that matter, but I think right now – at this moment – they could be.

Below, I’m doing a few ratio charts to demonstrate that the sectors in the eye of this year’s storm – emerging markets, materials, oil stocks and industrial metals – are all staging dramatic comeback rallies relative to the S&P 500. To me, this is a more important story than anything happening with bonds or biotechs. These are the very sectors / asset classes that have brought global risk appetite to its knees this year. If they’re truly putting in a bottom, sentiment about global growth could materially improve (pun intended), providing support for risk assets in general.

Just this morning, Morgan Stanley put out a big call saying it’s time to buy the metals and mining stocks. It’s definitely an outlier, as 2015 numbers repeatedly get ratcheted down for the group.

The good news is that these ratio charts are all breaking out to the upside, relative to the US stock market overall. Haven’t seen this in quite awhile. I’ve included 50-day moving averages for perspective. The top pane for each chart is relative strength, the bottom pane is pure price.

Let’s begin…

First, here’s the Emerging Market ETF (EEM) vs the SPY, now above the 50-day:


Here’s the materials SPDR ETF (XLB), with a nice confirmation by momentum (RSI charging toward 70):


Here is the energy sector SPDR vs the SPY, also on fire with an 11% jump in a week’s time:


Finally, a risk ratio that has not yet popped but may be hammering out a tradeable bottom – the Shanghai Composite vs the SPY. It stopped going down at the end of August. But can it get up? Because that would be the mother of all sentiment squeezes. Literally no one thinks it can. Maybe the consensus is right – but what if it’s not? Is anyone positioned for that?


Bottoms are nearly impossible to call in real-time, so this is probably, at best, a useful thought exercise for most investors. But if these charts are getting constructive, it would represent a huge weight lifting off of everyone.

PSW’s Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-6-15


Phil's Stock World: Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-6-15

For quickest access to the PSW webinars, subscribe to our YouTube channel here. 

Major Topics: Economy, Markets, S&P Chart, 5% Portfolio, Long-Term Portfolio, Butterfly Portfolio, GDP, Oil, Gold, Silver, FED, DAX, IBB, Standard Business Cycle, Corporate Profits, TLT, NLY. 

3:05 S&P Chart

5:08 5% Portfolio, Trade Ideas

14:15 Long-Term Portfolio, Short Puts, Review Position

16:45 Short-term Portfolio is to protect the Long-Term Portfolio.

18:54 Butterfly Portfolio is self-hedging Portfolio

20:00 “Make sure your broker has your money in insured account.”

22:23 “Our financial system is collapsing, we almost went to butter economy.”

26:35 Long-Term Portfolio, Material Stocks. Review Position, Trade Ideas Puts and Calls

33:48 Silver Chart

37:36 “The Government will just print money.”

40:10 The Worst-Case Scenario: GDP, Oil, Gold, Silver

47:30 Oil: Contracts run out.

50:10 5% Portfolio Review Position. Note: To make 400% you have to wait a year.

51:30 Fed: No help from emerging market, the Fed's balance sheet is maxed out. 

53:00 SLW Puts and Calls spread

54:31 S&P Chart

56:10 DAX Chart, Futures

57:00 Draghi doesn’t talk about policy… Forget it we’re going down!

59:58 Standard Business Cycle: Contractions Financials Profits, GDP decrease, Commodity fall, Property Values fall, Recession, Bond rise, Inflation fall, Short-term rates fall, Economy looks weak, Stock prices rise, Economic Recovery, Economy  Overheating, Bonds fall, Commodity rise, Inflation rise

1:03:48 Corporate Profits vs. GDP.

1:10:55 Biotech: IBB

1:18:54 DAX

1:20:27 TLT Trade Ideas, Puts and Calls

1:27:35 NLY Profits and Dividends, Trade Ideas Puts and Calls.

Will We Hold it Wednesday – S&P 2,000 Edition

"Look for the big W."

It's the plot of "A Mad, Mad, World" and also the chart pattern we're getting as the S&P 500 makes yet another MIRACULOUS recovery off our Must Hold Line at 1,850.  The 2,000 line is where the rubber hits the road and it's 8% over 1,850 and halfway back to our highs but, as you can see from our chart – there are A LOT of resistance lines bunched up in that area.

Our expected strong bounce line for the S&P was 1,950 (see yesterday's post), so that's no surprise and the Dollar is down 1% so add 19 more points and that's 1,970 without even overshooting the mark so no shocker at all to see us testing 2,000 but going over 2,000 is going to be another matter entirely.  

For one thing, for the S&P to get over 2,000, the DAX has to get over 10,000 and, as you can see, we're right on that line now with a 1% gain on the day – capping off a 6.4% run from last week's low at 9,400.  So, if the DAX is having trouble at 6.4%, why do we think the S&P will breeze over significant resistance at 8%?  

If you are going to be a TA person – those are the kind of questions you should be asking yourself.  As a Fundamentalist, however, I would ask you how any of this is happening when we just got TERRIBLE Industrial Output reports from Germany (-1.2%) and Spain (-1.4%).  It is especially troubling for Germany, where leading Economorons predicted a gain of 0.2% because – well because they are clueless practitioners of a voodoo profession.

When are Economists (and Investors) going to wake up to the concept that the Global Economy is WEAK and still essentially in a recession – the one that never ended but has been papered over by TRILLIONS of Dollars in stimulus that has faked growth for 6 years.  Like the proverbial dead parrot, this economy wouldn't go "voom" if you put $4Tn into it – and the Fed has proven that point – as has the BOJ, the PBOC, the ECB, RBI, SNB, ETC…  This is an EX-ECONOMY!!

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Chart School

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Phil's Favorites

Banks Give Up Hopes of Hikes, Plow Into Long Dated Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities

Courtesy of Mish.

Banks have become convinced the Fed simply isn't going to hike. So instead of waiting any longer, large banks like Wells Fargo are plowing billions of dollars into longer dated treasuries and agencies.

Simply put, Big US Banks Lose Patience With the Fed
In the years since the crisis the banks have grown used to grappling with higher costs and subdued demand for credit, while keeping plenty of cash and cash-like instruments on hand in the hope of benefiting from an uptick in short-term rates.

But, after the decision from the US Federal Reserve to keep its target overnight rate on hold this month, more lenders are taking their cue from Wells Fargo, the biggest bank in the world by market capitalisation, said analysts. ...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Japan Futures Signal Drop Before China Data; Dollar Holds Losses (Bloomberg)

Asian equities looked set to snap the longest rally for global stocks since February, with Chinese trade figures expected to provide a catalyst for investors. The dollar was weaker following a rally in commodity-linked currencies as traders continue to bet U.S. interest-rate increases will be pushed out until 2016.

What to watch for in Intel’s earnings (Market Watch)

Intel Corp. ...

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Zero Hedge

The Rise of the Sharing Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by derailedcapitalism.

Everyday I hear new stories of friends and family offering
rides through Uber, renting out rooms in their home on AirBnB, Uber or selling product on Framestr. while it’s a fairly new way of making money, it’s here to stay. There are obvious changes in consumer practices and
an opportunity for new market entrants to support a sharing economy in Canada.

Why is this happening? It’s pretty clear that Canadians have
become stretched. Debt-to-income hovers at record levels, contract positions
have increased (at the detriment of full-time work), and housing becomes as unaffordable
as ever.


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Sector Detector: Bulls rally, but bears lurk

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week, the S&P 500 put up its best week of the year, closing above key psychological levels and breaking through bearish technical resistance, with bulls largely inspired by the dovish FOMC meeting minutes. But this year’s market has been news-driven and quite difficult for traders to read. Even our fundamentals-based and quality-oriented quant models have struggled to perform. With corporate earnings season now underway, equities might take a breather at this point of the oversold rally until some clarity from key corporate bellwethers begins to take shape, particularly with respect to forward guidance. But despite severe global headwinds, there remain strong rea...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Small Caps – Bull/Bear debate could be resolved here

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.


Like almost every index on the planet, Small Caps have experienced softness of late. The decline took the index down to rising channel support the week before last, where it created a reversal pattern (bullish wick), at support.

Last weeks  rally in stocks, pushed small caps to the top of its short-term falling channel at (1) above.

The long-term rising channel remains in play.

In my humble opinion, a big time “Softness Test” is in play at (1). A breakout would be a plus, which would go a long way to sa...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 12th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli


Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli

Courtesy of Value Walk

1) The shares of one of my largest short positions (~3%), Exact Sciences, crashed by more than 46% yesterday. Below is the article I published this morning on SeekingAlpha, explaining why I think it’s still a great short and thus shorted more yesterday. Here’s a summary:

  • The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force’s Colorectal Cancer Screening Draft Recommendation issued yesterday is devastating for Exact Sciences’ only product, Cologuard.
  • I think this is the beginning of the end for the company.
  • My price target for the stock a year from now is $3, so I shorted more yes...

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Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...

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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 


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Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene


The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.


Thank you for you time!

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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