by Phil Davis - September 26th, 2014 8:02 am
That's how much our FREE Futures suggestions made between the time I put them in yesterday's morning post (8am) and the close of trading at 4pm. That's not bad for 6 hour's work, is it? As I said in the morning:
So, you may wonder, why would we want to go against the wishes of two of the most powerful people and short oil ($93.40), gasoline ($2.75), the Dow (17,150) and the Nikkei (16,350)? Well, that's because, as powerful as these people may be – they are still fighting physics in trying to make the markets do things they simply shouldn't be doing.
I'm sure ALL the newsletters you follow are able to give you equally profitable advice so, by all means, DON'T SUBSCRIBE HERE – especially ahead of the rate increase in October (sorry, inflation). But, can you really blame us for being pleased that we totally nailed the drop?
In fact, had you simply joined us on Wednesday and replicated our virtual Short-Term Portfolio, which was only up 53.4% at the time, you would have caught a ride from there to 60% in just two days. Last Thursday, the STP was up only 30%, so that's a 30% ($30,000) gain for the week as our bearish bets paid off and it very much offset the $15,560 decline in our bullish Long-Term Portfolio. So much so that we took some of our shorts off the table to get us more neutral into the morning (as we expect a slight bounce unless GDP sucks).
You don't have to trade the Futures to make great money on your hedges. Our DXD Oct $24 calls jumped from 0.50 on Tuesday (when I reminded you about them in the morning post) to 0.96 at yesterday's close – up 92% in 3 days! That's a good hedge, especially when you consider the Dow only fell 2.5%, so we got 36:1 leverage on that hedge – and THAT is how we balance our portfolios and protect them from sell-offs.
by ilene - September 25th, 2014 6:40 pm
In a conversation this morning, I remarked how rapidly things change. It was less than 20 years ago that cutting-edge tech for listening to music was the cassette tape. We blew right past CDs, and now we all consume music from the cloud on our phones. Boom. Almost overnight.
A lot has changed about the global economy and politics, too. Things that were unthinkable only 10 years ago now seem to be reality. What changes, I wonder, will we be writing about a few years from now that will seem obvious in hindsight?
In today’s Outside the Box, my good friend David Hay of Evergreen Capital sends us a letter written from the perspective of a few years in the future. I find myself wishing that some of the more hopeful events he foresees will come true, and my optimistic self actually sees a way through to such an outcome. In that future, I will join David as a bull. But the path that he proposes to take to that more optimistic future is not one that most investors will enjoy, so on the whole it’s a very sobering letter and one that should make all of us think.
I’m back from San Antonio, where I spent four enjoyable days with my friends and participants at the Casey Research Summit. I tried to attend as many of the conference sessions as I could, and I intend to get the “tapes” for some of the ones I missed.
I did a lot of video interviews while in San Antonio, too. And finished up a major documentary. Mauldin Economics will be making all of these available very soon. It’s hard to recommend one interview over another, but Lacy Hunt is just so smart. And with no further remarks let’s turn it over to David Hay and think about how the next few years will play out. Have a great week.
Your wishing his crystal ball was clearer analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box email@example.com
By David Hay
by Phil Davis - September 25th, 2014 8:01 am
Wheeeee, what a ride!
This is why we use hedges – they kept us from stopping out of our long positions during the dip and, since our long positions pay off in a flat or up market, anything not down is VERY profitable for our Long-Term positions, which outnumber our bearish Short-Term hedges by 10:1 in our Income Portfolio and Long-Term Portfolio.
Markets do, indeed go up AND down on a pretty regular basis and we've made a lot of bottom calls this week, adding more long positions as we got a nice pullback. Now we have the bounces we predicted and we'll just have to wait and see if our strong bounce lines hold up for the week. Yesterday morning, before the Market, our 5% Rule™ predicted we'd see:
So we have 3 greens and two in-betweens and that's certainly enough to get us to stop being bearish but not quite enough to turn us bullish yet. If we are holding the Strong Bounce lines on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, however, we could go long on the Russell, with the /TF Futures…
by Option Review - September 24th, 2014 3:57 pm
by ilene - September 24th, 2014 11:39 am
By John Mauldin
In 1633 Galileo Galilei, then an old man, was tried and convicted by the Catholic Church of the heresy of believing that the earth revolved around the sun. He recanted and was forced into house arrest for the rest of his life, until 1642. Yet “The moment he [Galileo] was set at liberty, he looked up to the sky and down to the ground, and, stamping with his foot, in a contemplative mood, said, Eppur si muove, that is, still it moves, meaning the earth” (Giuseppe Baretti in his book the The Italian Library, written in 1757).
Flawed from its foundation, economics as a whole has failed to improve much with time. As it both ossified into an academic establishment and mutated into mathematics, the Newtonian scheme became an illusion of determinism in a tempestuous world of human actions. Economists became preoccupied with mechanical models of markets and uninterested in the willful people who inhabit them….
Some economists become obsessed with market efficiency and others with market failure. Generally held to be members of opposite schools – “freshwater” and “saltwater,” Chicago and Cambridge, liberal and conservative, Austrian and Keynesian – both sides share an essential economic vision. They see their discipline as successful insofar as it eliminates surprise – insofar, that is, as the inexorable workings of the machine override the initiatives of the human actors. “Free market” economists believe in the triumph of the system and want to let it alone to find its equilibrium, the stasis of optimum allocation of resources. Socialists see the failures of the system and want to impose equilibrium from above. Neither spends much time thinking about the miracles that repeatedly save us from the equilibrium of starvation and death.
And to that stirring introduction let me just add a warning up front: today’s letter is not exactly a waltz in the park. Longtime readers will know that every once in a while I get a large and exceptionally aggressive bee in my bonnet, and when I do it’s time to…
by Phil Davis - September 24th, 2014 7:50 am
You call this a correction?
The Nasdaq is down 4%, Russell is down 5%, the Hang Seng is down 6% and the FTSE is down 3.6% but barely a pause from the rest of our Global Indexes. The problem is, it's been so long since we had a proper pullback that people think a tiny little correction is the end of the World. Even in the good old days, before high-frequency trading made a joke out of the market – investors didn't get too upset about a 5% pullback.
That may be the problem as well. The reason the market has marched off to record highs is BECAUSE investors have been led to believe that it's better than bonds, better than cash, even – to have your money in the stock market. We certainly seem to have convinced a lot of Boards of Directors that the best thing to do with their company's money is to buy back their own stock or the stock of their competitors – no matter how ridiculous the price.
$533Bn of hard-earned Corporate Profits were spent buying just the S&P 500, by the S&P 500, in the past 12 months alone. That's 20% more than all of 2013 ($420Bn) and 30% over the 5-year average and that DOESN'T include M&A activity – also at a record pace. While this has been going on, insiders have been SELLING their company stock at a record pace – Interesting…
So the company uses it's profits, not to invest in it's own future but to prop up it's own stock price – making earnings seem better because you are dividing the profits by a lower number of shares than there were last year. This inflates the stock price and the insiders get out and that's when you buy – is that about right?
What a friggin' scam - I can't believe you fell for that! Seriously, that is such an obvious fraud that you would think people would run screaming away from equities. The problem is, there's nowhere to run to, is there. Your cash is being devalued, bonds don't keep up with inflation, real estate is still very…