by ilene - August 25th, 2016 5:56 pm
Watch a replay of Phil's weekly trading webinar, recorded yesterday, below.
For LIVE access, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here!
00:03:03 TSLA's Planned Roadmap to Vehicles
00:04:54 More on Extrapolation
00:06:19 TSLA Chart
00:08:42 Auto Sales by Quarter
00:10:00 Annual Vehicle Sales
00:13:52 Ford Sales Performance
00:15:53 Possible Problems with the Auto Business
00:16:40 Chinese Auto Sales
00:18:30 Ford Trade Status
00:19:21 Long-Term Ford Portfolio
00:22:27 Ford Trade Ideas
00:29:12 Velocity of Money
00:44:47 Owning a House vs. Renting
00:50:21 Home Sales
00:51:20 XON Chart
00:52:04 XON relation to Zika
00:53:42 APPL Car Environments
00:55:17 Self-driving Cars
00:57:56 Interest Rates
00:59:27 Selling Bonds in the Market
01:02:07 Self-driving car infrastructure ideas
01:08:04 Fair Market Price
01:09:00 DIS Chart
01:10:05 DIS Earnings
01:12:15 XON expires on Oct.
01:14:06 LOW Trade Ideas
01:20:58 DAL Trade Ideas
01:22:00 More Trade Ideas
01:25:00 BBY Trade Ideas
01:27:49 Petroleum Status Report
01:35:00 JNJ Earnings
01:39:00 Long Term Portfolio
01:45:00 Checking the Markets
01:47:46 Short-Term Portfolio
01:48:37 5% Portfolio
01:49:07 Butterfly Portfolio
01:52:40 More Trade Ideas
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!
by phil - August 25th, 2016 8:30 am
Aren't you glad we're back?
What a great week to start doing free picks again as we started off with Monday's Toll Brothers (TOL) trade idea, which has already gone from a $300 credit to $1,250 for a $1,550 gain (516%) in 3 days, so you're welcome for that one and it's only "on track" to our full 1,433% expectation so, if you want, you could still play it for $1,550 and look to get the full $4,300 in Jan 2018, which is up another $2,750 (177%) from here – but those are just our table scraps at this point!
Even if you don't subscribe to PhilStockWorld (PSW), where you get these articles EMailed to you pre-market every morning, you can follow us on Twitter or read us on Seeking Alpha, where they had Monday's post ready by 10am - not too bad of a delay for free picks, right? On Tuesday our 8:38 article was ready on SA at 9:55, just a little behind the Huffington Post (9:36), where we picked up a short play on GameStop (GME) and I called for shorting the indexes:
Still, with the Dollar (/DX) down at 94.30, it should be bouncy here and there's no particular reason for the markets to go higher so I like shorting the Futures, with VERY tight stops, at the following levels:
Dow (/YM) 18,550, S&P (/ES) 2,185, Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,825 and Russell (/TF) 1,242.50. We can't short the Nikkei (/NKD, now 16,550) because the Nikkei likes a strong Dollar, so it's too risky but a bounce in the Dollar back over 95 will drive Oil (/CL) and Gold (/YG) lower and knock down two big sectors of the S&P.
by ilene - August 24th, 2016 11:55 pm
Courtesy of ValueWalk.
Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett discusses Jeff Bezos’ extraordinary success with Amazon.
Warren Buffett: Jeff Bezos Has ‘Changed The World’ In A Big Way
Sign up for ValueWalk's free newsletter here.
by phil - August 24th, 2016 8:48 am
Not a very exciting market while we wait for Friday's Fed Speak but we have been amusing ourselves picking up some cheap positions – in case the free money train is going to keep on rolling. The nice thing about sideline cash is you get to deploy it, which is so much more fun that being full of positions you're stuck with and praying they don't drop. In addition to all those free trade ideas we gave you yesterday (and TOL is up over 10% since Monday's featured pick!), we added 3 more long trade ideas in yesterday's Live Member Chat Room, including IMAX, which spiked higher as we sent out our Top Trade Alert for that stock.
Our shorting lines remain the same as yesterday and you have to be nimble with those S&P (/ES) (SPY) contracts but the trading range allows for many opportunities to pick up $250-$500 pretty much every day though yesterday we firmed up on shorting the Russell (/TF) at 1,250, with tight stops above that line. On the Russell, it's $100 per point per contract – so a little more aggressive.
We're doing a Live Trading Webinar today at 1pm, EST and we'll do a little Futures Training. Oil should be in play today with inventories out at 10:30 but we already saw an API Report that indicates an unexpected (by economorons) 4Mb build and that should be good for those USO puts we told you about last week. Keep in mind the reason for the build is mainly the 500Kb/d Exxon (XOM) refinery is off-line and 7 x 500,000 = 3.5M barrels that weren't refined – duh!
Of more concern to the oil bulls is the ever-declining demand for gasoline, as evidenced by the EIA revising their gasoline consumption expectations from +4-5% in January to +1.5% in their July estimate and even that may be revised down as US consumption, according to our friends at CNBC, had missed 10Mb/d estimates by 200,000 (2%) all summer.
by ilene - August 23rd, 2016 2:59 pm
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown
Last fall, financial advisors Anthony and Dina Isola came into our firm to talk shop one afternoon. We were blown away by their passion for saving the retirement portfolios of their clients, many of whom are teachers and professors who are inundated almost daily with bad product pitches at their schools.
Within a few weeks, we were talking about hiring them. It’s one of the best decisions we’ve made so far – an absolute grand slam from a culture perspective.
Tony’s background as a trader-turned-educator-turned-Certified Financial Planner makes him a highly unique animal in our menagerie. He comes to work ready to crush it every day, and he’s armed to the teeth with knowledge about how the machine takes advantage of the investor class at every turn. Dina’s detail-oriented work assures a smooth client experience for all who come to them for help.
Tony’s also got a great blog, called A Teachable Moment. When we set it up for him, we had no idea how consistently good his stuff would be each week.
For example, this bit about the application of history lessons is so crucial:
How can investors act as applied historians and use this skill set to create wealth?
There are several minefields that could easily be avoided with some knowledge of the past:
- Most market corrections don’t turn into bear markets.
- Using leverage to boost investment returns often ends badly.
- The president has very little control over the global economy.
- Buying new financial products at market peaks is a poor idea.
- Bull markets last much longer than bear markets.
- Stocks are six times more likely to be up 20% than down the same amount. (Michael Batnick)
- Uncertainty is always present and it is not a wise choice to use it as an excuse not to invest.
- Stocks will do the best job of protecting future purchasing power over long periods of time.
- Investing in the fastest growing world economies will not guarantee higher investment returns.
by phil - August 23rd, 2016 8:38 am
Well, we're making SOME progress.
As you can see from JackDamn's SPY Chart, since gapping up in the 2nd week of August we've stayed tightly in this range between 2,170 and 2,190 on the S&P (and divide by 10 for SPY) which is up around 10% since the Brexit Panic, brief though that was at the time.
Before then we were hovering around 2,010 so 2,020 is only up 5% and really, it shouldn't be THAT hard to manage, should it. I hear again and again from the MSM and my fellow pundits how great everything is but, to me, "great" should have a much easier time of gaining 5% in a quarter – this is "good" at best…
Of course, it's not quite so "good" when we consider that SPY, like the S&P, is priced in Dollars and those Dollars have become 2.5% weaker in the past 3 weeks and more than 5% weaker than they were at the start of the year, when the S&P was at 2,050, which is 6% lower than it is now. So, in reality (I know, where is that), in constant Dollar terms, the market is only 1% higher since the start of the year since those Dollars you cash in your shares for have 5% less buying power than they did back then.
If only we had all bought gold in January – or Natural Gas (which was our Trade of the Year), that trade is up 900%! Speaking of trades, we were dead wrong on Best Buy (BBY) yesterday and they had a fantastic quarter and popped 15% to $38 pre-market this morning. The way to adjust a short call is simply to roll it to a longer-term, higher strike and generally we roll the loss, not the whole amount. I'll touch base in Member Chat in case anyone played them short.
Inside of BBY's numbers were poor game revenues and that might bode ill for GameStop (GME), whose earning are Thursday, so another potential shorting candidate at $31.50 and the Jan $35 calls can be sold for $1.40 while the $37 ($7.25)/32 ($3.75) bear…