No, artificial intelligence won’t steal your children’s jobs – it will make them more creative and productive

 

No, artificial intelligence won't steal your children's jobs – it will make them more creative and productive

File 20180213 44639 1jsz5ip.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Artificial intelligence: promise or peril?

Courtesy of Marcos Lima, Pôle Léonard de Vinci – UGEI

“Whatever your job is the chances are that one of these machines can do it faster or better than you can.”

No, this is not a 2018 headline about self-driving cars or one of IBM’s new supercomputers. Instead, it was published by the Daily Mirror in 1955, when a computer took as much space as a large kitchen and had less power than a pocket calculator. They were called “electronic brains” back then, and evoked both hope and fear. And more than 20 years later, little had changed: In a 1978 BBC documentary about silicon chips, one commentator argued that “They are the reason why Japan is abandoning its shipbuilding and why our children will grow up without jobs to go to”.

Artificial intelligence hype is not new

If one types “artificial intelligence” (AI) on Google Books’ Ngram Viewer – a tool that allows us to check how often a term was printed in a book between 1800 and 2008 – we can clearly see that our modern-day hype, optimism and deep concern about AI are by no means a novelty.

Searches for the term ‘artificial intelligence’ on Google Books’ Ngram viewer. Author provided

The history of AI is a long series of booms and busts. The first “AI spring” took place between 1956 and 1974, with pioneers such as the young Marvin Minsky. This was followed by the “first AI winter” (1974-1980), when disillusion with the gap between machine learning and human cognitive capacities first led to disinvestment and disinterest in the topic. A second boom (1980-1987) was followed by another “winter” (1987-2001). Since the 2000s we’ve been surfing the third “AI spring”.

There’s plenty of reasons to believe this latest wave of interest for AI is going to be more durable. According to Gartner Research, technologies typically go from a “peak of inflated expectations” through a “trough…
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  • Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!

    OnWisconsin

  • Fed days are fun! Just for grins I decided to see how much money I could make in two clicks. I bought DIA calls right when the surge started and then sold them the minute they hit my account. Net gain of 20% in 20 seconds. Can't do that very often…

    MrMocha

  • Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke

    Coke

  • You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.

    Corleone

  • Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!

    Jromeha

  • WISH TO EXTEND A BIG THANK YOU! I netted about $18,000 on the short Jan puts and the annualized ROI/M is mind boggling! Hope to meet you some day and buy you and your significant other a nice dinner. Best Regards Newt

    Newthugger

  • Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts. You have so many of these awesome little tricks in your playbook that it really amazes me. I toally love your analogy by the way: Do you want insurance that you have to pay for, or do you want insurance that pays you?

    Craigzooka

  • Thanks for the oil tip Phil: Bot & sold the USO May 29 calls for net $125. Not bad for few minutes work.

    JWick1981

  • Phil Killed it tonight trading copper. Anyone who jumped in right after election is up about 75k on one contract! Thanks

    Kapella

  • I have been a "silent" member for the past year, and am 1,000 hours into the 10K hours of training (The last week is worth at least 500 hours!). Made lots of mistakes and misunderstood quite a few of Phil's calls, … some actually made money when reversed. The chat (Including the politics) is very engaging (Many great minds with international coverage), and a great companion, while nursing a trade gone wrong, through the night. The webinars (despite technical difficulties) are extremely useful. Thanks for your coaching … it has made me a consistently profitable trader, with a better understanding of what I do not know.

    Aquila

  • Phil/BCS - Didn't realise they traded here. Should've known really. Thanks for the tip. managed to pick some up just before the close at a 15% discount to the UK closing price.

    DB

  • All I can say is — I understand that the Universe sent me to PSW for a reason. So, I'm listening!! …and studying. Your commentary is literally outstanding. …and your members are impressive as well.

    Seaquill

  • Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

    JWick1981

  • Once again, many muchos for the SODA trade of last week. Finally out of all three legs. I didn't want to wait for expiration tomorrow and the possible peg at $70.00, following your dictum to not get greedy.

    flipspiceland

  • It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.

    Pirateinvestor

  • Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself. Thanks!

    Barfinger

  • Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

    Ricpar

  • Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.

    Escohen5

  • Phil I have been telling you for a while how I feel like I am really understanding you now and thanking you. Well today may have been my most successful futures trading day since I began here and the week has been spectacular! It has just seemed so easy when you give us a range and I execute properly. Thanks once again for teaching me to fish. My portfolio gained over 10% this week which is just amazing.

    Craiga620

  • It was a nice day thanks to your help! Made over $1100 shorting TF every time it came up near 1260 and even more by going long oil before inventory under $46 and then waited patiently for the spike up into the close where I shorted it at 47.70 or so. Phil you gave me a road map and I simply followed the signs along the way.

    Craigsa620

  • I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

    Zucko

  • I am not a user of phil's site now, but was for a couple years. His advice and information is excellent. Perhaps even better, you get access to real-time trades of additional traders on his site (OptTrader, etc) and the other members who post what they are buying and selling. Overall, its a very valuable information tool. Expensive, but paid for itself many times over. I did not renew my membership because I switched jobs and did not have time to trade nearly as much.

    XRTrader

  • I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals). In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.

    Texasmotion

  • Phil - Wow…wow. The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering. It's this type of experience that I really hope to develop. I'm afraid I still can't see the moves, but I WILL learn. I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this place. Please keep it going!

    Where

  • You may wonder if anyone gets anything out of you seminars (or may not wonder). Anyway, I almost never day trade because of my job. Today, I was home due to the snow and since I was behind by 2 weeks on watching your recorded seminars I though I would watch one of them. I set up my pivot point charts in TOS to match the ones in your seminar and made the QQQ trade from this morning. I only bought 5 puts. While I watched the seminar, I would pause then switch back and forth and watch the live QQQ chart. I ended up stopping out for a $170 gain, but it was pretty cool to have the dip and recovery at the same time I was learning the art of stopping out when a pivot line was taken out.

    rj_jarboe

  • It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more. It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.

    Roro

  • Phil, 3 for 3! Sold on initial excitement and made a double on USO, 70% on AMZN and 70% on SPY options from Friday. Thanks and much appreciated for the suggestions.

    Gingbaum

  • I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

    Pharmboy

  • I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.

    KMisko

  • Phil… My portfolio, in the past few months, has acheived a high degree of stabilization. I've noticed that on up days, down days, even days, it doesn't matter, my portfolio rarely varies more than 2%. And over the long haul it just slowly increases in value. I attribute this not to investment choices, but to style. Thanks to you and others on this site I'm paying close attention to position size, delta neutrality, downside protection, and concentrating on selling premium rather than buying it. I've developed increasing patience, not having to trade daily, or even weekly. I'm concentrating on the finer points of trading, letting the profits come to me, rather than the other way around. I appreciate the help everyone here has given in getting me focused on this principle. I'm pumped!…in a calm sort of way.

    Iflantheman

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 02-14-18

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 02-14-18

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:54 Checking on the Markets
00:03:37 Russell
00:12:33 CMG
00:17:47 CMG Trade Ideas
00:29:57 RB
00:38:25 CMG
00:39:45 CISCO
00:43:09 WPM
00:46:35 BBBY
00:53:49 Active Trader
01:04:50 Butterfly Portfoli
01:05:24 OIH
01:06:34 Money Talk Portfolio
01:09:18 Long Term Portfolio
01:11:20 Short Term Portfolio
01:15:30 Option Opportunity Portfolio
01:22:46 ABX
01:27:22 Checking on the Markets
01:31:31 Indexes

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





Thrilling Thursday – Yesterday’s Russell Futures Up $2,500 Per Contract!

You're welcome!  

In yesterday's Morning Report, we decided the sell-off was overdone and went for the Russell (/TF) Futures longs at 1,480 and yesterday afternoon they blasted back to 1,520 for a $2,000 per contract gain on the day and this morning at 1,530 for another $500 per contract and NOW we are flipping short – but more on that later.  Remember, we are still playing the bounce lines from the charts we made for your last week – so none of this is a surprise and none of this, so far, including this morning's pop in the Futures, is indicating a true recovery yet.  

The S&P Futures (/ES) this morning are topping out at 2,720 and our 5% Rule™ Bounce Chart from last week (2/9) has, so far, predicted the moves perfectly:

All we are doing, so far, is topping out at the same place we bounced on 2/7 and that's being mirrored on the other indexes so the lines we need to be over now – in order to call today "bullish" are Dow 25,200, S&P 2,715, Nasdaq 6,700 and Russell 1,520 and, so far, the Russell and Nasdaq are a bit over but the Dow and S&P are below.  Don't forget, we topped out at 2,872 on Jan 26th so there's really nothing impressive about 2,720 - other than the fact that we came back from 2,600 but it's only a halfway recovery (not even) at this point and, if we fail to get over these lines, it's as likely we're consolidating for a move down after 2 weeks as it is we're moving back up.

Fundamentally, nothing has changed and you saw how quickly the market can still move down (and recover) yesterday.  Our 5% Rule™ takes into account that it's easy to manipulate a rally that recovers 20% and 40% of a drop if it's done quickly enough and we take into account the idiocy of dip buyers as well.  Not that all dip buyers are idiots – we had a field day adding stocks to our portfolios over the past two weeks – it's just that we added well-hedged positions and now it is time to improve our hedges, many of which we
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The World’s Largest Migration Is About To Begin

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

This Friday, China is going to celebrate its new year, kicking off one of the planet's great migrations.

Also known as Spring Festival or Lunar New Year, Statista's Niall McCarthy notes that this the event sees hundreds of millions of people leave their cities in order to visit their families in more rural parts of the country. In fact, practically all of China takes holiday at once, making the new year the biggest human event on earth.

Infographic: The World's Largest Migration Is About To Begin  | Statista

Find more infographics at Statista

This year, the number traveling to welcome the Year of the Dog will be approximately 385 million, marking a 12 percent increase on 2017 according to China News. 

Comparing China's largest annual migration with North America's is a good way to gauge its sheer size.

Thanksgiving 2017 saw 50.9 million travelers negotiate long tailbacks on the interstate and overcrowded airports. Even though Thanksgiving is a major travel event, China's new year is still seven times bigger, with its massive population making a big difference of course.

Known as "chunyun", the annual new year migration in China also easily surpasses the world's biggest pilgrimages in scale with Arba'een and the Hajj not even coming close.





Markets Get No Loving on Valentine’s Day Inflation Massacre

Related imageHappy Valentine's Day!  

There's a massacre for the markets as we're down 300 points in a massive failure of the strong bounce lines which we predicted for you a week ago, which are:

  • Dow (/YM) 24,100 is weak and 24,700 is strong
  • S&P (/ES) 2,610 is weak and 2,670 is strong
  • Nasdaq (/NQ) 6,440 is weak and 6,580 is strong
  • Russell (/TF) 1,480 is weak and 1,510 is strong

We needed to see strong bounces on all 4 indexes taken AND HELD for at least a full day before we could safely say the correction is over (it's not).  

Strong inflation numbers are killing us this morning (CPI), keeping the Fed on the table for more tightening.  There had been no real news in the past week to change what were obviously overbought conditions 2 weeks ago so there was no logic in racing back to the overbought conditions – though we're still a good 5% below the highs.  If you almost had a heart attack last week, this is a good time to consider hedges and a great example can be found from the way we adjusted our Money Talk Portfolio (which we discussed on Feb 1st in our Morning Report) by adding a Nasdaq Ultra-Short (SQQQ) hedge that has gained $5,900 in two weeks, almost exactly offsetting half the damage to the portfolio – as intended.  That trade idea was:

SQQQ is the ultra-short Nasdaq ETF that's a 3x inverse of QQQ.  So, if the Nasdaq drops 10%, SQQQ goes up 30% (in theory, it's not perfect).  I'm going to add the following trade as a hedge and WE EXPECT TO LOSE MONEY ON THIS ONE – it's like life insurance, you pay for it but you hope that, each year, it's a waste of money!  

  • Buy


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The ‘real’ St. Valentine was no patron of love

 

The 'real' St. Valentine was no patron of love

File 20180209 51703 10w4gt5.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Relics of St. Valentine of Terni at the basilica of Saint Mary in Cosmedin. Dnalor 01 (Own work) , CC BY-SA

Courtesy of Lisa Bitel, University of Southern California – Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

On Feb. 14, sweethearts of all ages will exchange cards, flowers, candy, and more lavish gifts in the name of St. Valentine. But as a historian of Christianity, I can tell you that at the root of our modern holiday is a beautiful fiction. St. Valentine was no lover or patron of love.

Valentine’s Day, in fact, originated as a liturgical feast to celebrate the decapitation of a third-century Christian martyr, or perhaps two. So, how did we get from beheading to betrothing on Valentine’s Day?

Early origins of St. Valentine

Ancient sources reveal that there were several St. Valentines who died on Feb. 14. Two of them were executed during the reign of Roman Emperor Claudius Gothicus in 269-270 A.D., at a time when persecution of Christians was common.

How do we know this? Because, an order of Belgian monks spent three centuries collecting evidence for the lives of saints from manuscript archives around the known world.

They were called Bollandists after Jean Bolland, a Jesuit scholar who began publishing the massive 68-folio volumes of “Acta Sanctorum,” or “Lives of the Saints,” beginning in 1643.

Since then, successive generations of monks continued the work until the last volume was published in 1940. The Brothers dug up every scrap of information about every saint on the liturgical calendar and printed the texts arranged according to the saint’s feast day.

The Valentine martyrs

The volume encompassing Feb. 14 contains the stories of a handful of “Valentini,” including the earliest three of whom died in the third century.

St. Valentine blessing an epileptic. Wellcome Images, CC BY

The earliest Valentinus is said to have died in Africa, along with 24 soldiers. Unfortunately, even…
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ValueWalk

Morgan Housel on What Other Industries Teach Us About Investing

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Morgan Housel gave an amazing presentation on What Other Industries Teach Us About Investing at our second annual MicroCap Leadership Summit (MLS). The MLS is an annual event hosted by MicroCapClub. MicroCapClub is an exclusive forum for experienced microcap investors focused on microcap companies (sub $300m market cap) trading on United States, Canadian, and UK markets. MicroCapClub was created to be a platform for experienced microcap investors to share and discuss stock ideas. Investors can join our community by applying to become a member or subscribing to gain instant view only access. MicroCapClub’s mission is to foster the highest quality microcap investor Community, produce Educational content for investors, and pr...



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Zero Hedge

Asia, S&P Futures Rally, Europe Falters With US, China On Holiday

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With the US on holiday for President’s Day and many Asia markets still closed for Lunar New Year holidays, it has been a quiet start to the week, even as last week's dollar turbulence has resumed, while S&P futures are doing their best to levitate without anyone manning the controls.

World stocks were set for a sixth session o...



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Phil's Favorites

The importance of GE's credit rating

 

The importance of GE's credit rating

Courtesy of John Hempton, Bronte Capital

The cover story in Barrons this week is on GE's dim prospects. I co...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Feb 18, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

BOO YAH! Now that’s more like it!  Your regularly scheduled non stop up market returned this past week with a “5 for 5” week (all 5 days up).  Three of those days were >1% so it was a return of the bulls.  That said to return to the “Trump market” we need to get back to almost no volatility and incremental up days of 0.3% or so 80% of the time.   We noted in last week’s recap the NYSE McClellan Oscillator was still VERY oversold so a “snapback rally” was still on the docket.  That was quite a snapback rally!  So the “easy part” of the bounce just happened – now we will see if we are going to return to a more volatile future or go right back to the sleepy market that tacks on a little 4 out of 5 ...



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Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Nears $11,000, Here's A History Of Its Biggest Ups And Downs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The cryptocurrency rebound off Feb 5th's bloodbath lows (below $6,000 for Bitcoin) has been impressive, as a 'mysterious' massive buyer 'bought the dip' and momentum took care of the rest.

With Bitcoin now nearing $11,000 (almost a double off the lows), ...



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Insider Scoop

Walmart, Target Are Susquehanna's Top Picks Ahead Of Retail Earnings Season

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WMT Upcoming Earnings: Hurricane Effects Still Trickling Through For Home Depot? Did Walmart Meet It...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

What is 'right to try,' and could it help?

In this March 18, 2011 photo, Cassidy Hempel waved at hospital staff as she was being treated for a rare disorder. Her mother Chris, left, fought to gain permission for an experimental drug. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Morten Wendelbo, Texas A&M University and Timothy Callaghan, ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>