The Market’s Response To Crisis

 

The Market’s Response To Crisis

Courtesy of 

The most important thing long-term investors need to see today is the market’s response to crisis, courtesy of Dimensional Funds.

Screen Shot 2016-06-24 at 9.22.05 AM

The chart above should put the Brexit in perspective. Nobody knows yet what the implications will be, but I’m pretty confident that this is no more significant than any of the six events above. Now of course there are never any guarantees, that’s what risk means. And if you need the money in the next five years, you should not be subjecting it to the risk of the stock market anyhow.

I’m a believer in practicing what I preach, so today in my personal account, I added to the international side of my portfolio. This is definitely not a market call, I am not suggesting the bottom is in, but I also know not to look a gift horse in the mouth. When an entire index falls ten percent in a day, you hold your nose and hit the buy button. Investing is all about giving your future self a chance at a better life, and it’s days like today that determine whether or not you’ll be able to do so via the stock market.

I’m invoking article 50 and resurrecting a Warren Buffett quote, who had this to say when clients reached out to him after stocks fell in 1966:

After the Dow declined from 995 at the peak of February to about 865 in May, I received a few calls from partners suggesting that they thought stocks were going a lot lower. This always raises two questions in my mind: (1) if they knew in February that the Dow was going to 865 in May, why didn’t they let me in on it then and (2) if they didn’t know what was going to happen during the ensuing three months back in February, how do they know in May? There is also a voice or two after any hundred point or so decline suggesting we sell and wait until the future is clearer. Let me again suggest two points: (1) the future has never been clear to me (give us a call when the next few months are


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Very nice in and out on those USO puts again, easy way to get the subscription covered in just a couple of hours. Thanks again Phil and everyone here contributing to such intelligent and informative discussion! I have wasted countless hours reading "professional newsletters" and message board blather over the years. Have learned a great deal here in a very short time. I have sent out a number of invites to friends and family for stockworld!

- Eyezz


Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

- JWick1981


Looking over your main themes last week, the "China may fall first" and "if you missed it previously, Thurs am gives you a second chance to short" were absolutely on target. I had to rely on stop-losses because of my schedule but just those two calls could have been worth a small fortune. Keep it up and I look forward to your new portfolio.

- Ocelli


PHIL: The most important lesson I have learned is how to hedge using SQQQ, SDS and TZA. A big thanks.

- IHS4God


AMZN ... thanks Phil; boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there ... made me sweat ... scaling helped! I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow ... maybe lower.

- Cap


You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

- Dclark41


There are a lot of us that have been here a long time and we all learn something everyday. Just keep asking questions, there are a lot of smart people here and they are willing to help and then of course, you have Phil.

- Jr Mints


Phil: Closed out ZION with 49 % gain!

- RMM


Hey Phil, You called all the trends and market movements with perfection this week. I enjoyed it! Thanks for keeping us sane!

- GClay


Kudos on the POT puts! I studied the charts last night and you couldn't have hit the inflection points more perfectly. Since there are often many head fakes in the charts, that was very well done. I know they can't all work this well, but that was an extra unexpected bonus yesterday.

- Ocelli7


I must add yet another paen to Phil's "cash and short" call, as my TZA shorts are past paying for Similac and Pampers and have now covered all doctors and Mt. Sinai hospital bills for young Charlotte, as TZA took the portfolio up 10%.

- Zeroxzero


Started my membership in mid-Oct and have since then learned so much about options by reading the site's articles and postings, members' chats and suggested trades – as a bonus, the articles are entertaining as well! Phil's long-term investing strategy makes really good sense as I've seen its effect on my GLW positions. Phil – thanks for sharing your knowledge of the market! I've worked as risk analyst for the investment dept of a $19B insurance company, and the scope and depth of your daily commentaries blows away what I have seen and heard from the PMs and even the chief investment officer! Most of all, I will continue to be a member because you have your priorities right (from my POV) – it's not all about money and power.

- Bai2r


Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.

- Winston


Hey I just did a nice options trade on LL for $800 (50%) gain thanks to this site, so… not bad for my first day! An hour of reading you guys and I already paid for two months subscription! Thank you!

- lchu


Fed days are fun! Just for grins I decided to see how much money I could make in two clicks. I bought DIA calls right when the surge started and then sold them the minute they hit my account. Net gain of 20% in 20 seconds. Can't do that very often…

- MrMocha


All I can say is — I understand that the Universe sent me to PSW for a reason. So, I'm listening!! …and studying. Your commentary is literally outstanding. …and your members are impressive as well.

- Seaquill


I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors!

- craigsa620


Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

- Steve


100KP dividend plays - FYI, I'm loving them...thanks, Phil!!! Including the $0.848/share dividend, I am up 100% on my $2.38 net entry on LYG...that's pretty cool!

- SSDirk


From following Phil I have opened up BCS and occasion will strangle some stocks. I will occasionally hedge using an ETF ultra. I have a big take down occasionally but so far I am way ahead of the S&P, and since buying into PSW some years ago by seeing Phil on Seeking Alpha I feel more confident in my abilities. FYI I am a retired entrepreneur formerly in the real estate and insurance businesses.

- Newthugger


Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.

- Ben1Be


Phil, did you by chance publish the weekly webinar on Youtube yet? I have been watching these and they are awesome. Unfortunately, I can't cut out of work to attend live webinars. Again, they are just awesome content – thank you.

- jcpdx


Phil, I have to hand it to you. It seemed that you were the only person on the planet that thought stocks falling was still possible. I am glad I listened. About the end of the year I was really beginning to second guess though. Thanks for suggesting taking some profits last Nov. It no longer looks like I missed much.

- rj_jarboe


Hello Phil, Thanks for the heads up on the comming sell off on friday, and the bs job yesterday. your our guiding light!

- Microflux


Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

- Oknoman


Phil: I cleaned up today. A rather stark contrast to my untutored performance April/May 2009, after I had written to you to explain how wrong-headed your bearishness was. Many thanks. I ran into someone once who played on the Bulls with Jordan for quite a few years. He was asked what he had learned from playing with MJ for so long. He smiled and said "Give him the ball."

- Zeroxzero


I've recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn't an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I've substantially increased my performance in the IRA!

- Iflantheman


Phil, I don't know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I'm up significantly in my portfolio and I've never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

- thechaser


By the way thank you Phil for the DNDN idea. 3x till this morning and will 4x my small investment by next OE THANKS !!!!

- Microflux


GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

- Winston




T (Told You So) GIF – Brexit Victory Rocks the Market

Prime Minister David Cameron said he would resign after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. He said a new leader will be in place by October.Wheeeeeee – what fun! 

What do you want me to say?  I could not possibly have warned you more, I couldn't possibly have said CASH!!! or "Cashy and Cautious" one more time without sounding like an idiot and I could not have given out more hedging ideas or better shorting lines on the Futures to save you from being "surprised" by the vote by the UK to leave the EU and the market repercussions we're seeing today.  In fact, right in yesterday's morning post I told you:  

Nice test of 2,100 on /ES, which is a good shorting line along with 17,8000 on /YM, 4,450 on /NQ and 1,160 on /TF and 16,600 on /NKD is ridiculous since the Dollar is down half a point (93.23) but safer to short the US indexes since the Dollar coming back would be good for /NKD.

This morning I called longs on our indexes in a 3:38 am Alert to our Members and we caught a nice move up and I'm not even going to talk about how profitable yesterday's Futures shorting ideas were since it seems like crazy, unrealistic money when you catch a 5% correction and, anyway, if you missed it – it's not like these happen every day, week, month or year.

That's why I was making such a big deal about it – how often are we able to get ourselves ahead of a major market correction?  As I have been saying, the RISK of the market making new highs and us regretting missing a bit of a move higher were/are nothing compared to the REWARD we now have from flipping short and moving to CASH!!!, where we now get to go bargain-hunting on all those stocks people are panicking out of.

We're in no hurry to do anything, however – let the chips fall where they may over the weekend and we'll see how sentiment is running over the weekend.  Our morning longs have already stopped out and, on the whole, the S&P
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It’s All Over As “Leave” Wins Brexit Referendum: Markets Everywhere Are Crashing

 

It's All Over As "Leave" Wins Brexit Referendum: Markets Everywhere Are Crashing

Courtesy of Zero Hedge 

Final update to this historic post, just to make it official:

  • BREXIT VOTE-LEAVE HAS WON MORE THAN 16.784 MLN VOTES, ENOUGH TO GUARANTEE VICTORY IN EU REFERENDUM – BBC FIGURES

* * *

Update 12:15 PM – Turmoil…

 

Dow Futures are down 800 points from the post-close highs…

 

As Cable crashes to 30 year lows…

 

And Treasury yields crash to 2016 lows…

 
 

This is the 2nd biggest percentage drop in 10Y Yields ever…

 

Update 11:50 PM: And now comes the global market panic:

  • S&P 500 FUTURES TUMBLE 4.5 PERCENT, DOWN 99 POINTS
  • GOLD 1350
  • TREASURIES EXTEND GAIN; 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS BELOW 1.50%, 12 BPS FROM ALL TIME LOW
  • JAPAN'S 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.215%
  • CIRCUIT BREAKER KICKS IN FOR NIKKEI FUTURES, TRADING HALTED FOR  10 MINS FOR JAPAN STOCK FUTURES
  • INDIA RBI SAID TO SELL DOLLARS TO CURB RUPEE'S DROP: TRADERS
  • EUR/CHF EXTENDS DROP BELOW 1.0700, FIRST TIME SINCE AUG. 2015

Also by Zero Hedge:

Morgan Stanley Explains "What Leave Means" (Spoiler Alert: A Lot Of Pain For The Longs)

With the voting out of the way, the only thing left is the crying. Oh, and the margin calls which start in just a few hours. And, alongside all of that, forecasts of doom that have to comply with all the scaremongering that was unleashed over the past few months as part of the Remain campaign. Sure enough, here is Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets explaining "What Leave Means."

It's not pretty. Here is the summary answer:

We see GBP moving to 1.25-1.30 and 15-20% downside to European equities relative to Thursday's levels. Corporate and sovereign credit present the best opportunities to buy


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 06-22-16

It's ready!

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 06-22-16

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here

For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

This Week's Topics

00:02:09 “Risk off”
00:04:14 Checking on the Markets: CL
00:05:09 Oil Trade Ideas, Contracts
00:14:16 UNG Trade Ideas
00:20:35 Oil Trade Ideas
00:26:35 Checking on the Markets: CL, DX, RB. Trade Ideas
00:38:53 Taker States
00:45:35 Checking on the Markets: CL, RB
00:48:27 UK Bookies betting Brexit will fail; Brexit is a big smoke screen
01:02:29 Greece interest chart
01:06:34 If UK leave the other country will get off they all wanna leave
01:08:57 Checking on the Markets: CL, RB. Trade Ideas
01:15:54 Checking on the Markets: DOW, NASDAQ, RUSSEL, CL, RB, NG, NKD, DX, YG, SI, HG
01:18:46 Options Opportunity Portfolio
01:21:19 It’s not about money, it’s about Time –Phil
01:29:40 Futures
01:34:10 More Trade Ideas…
01:37:34 Compound Rate Calculator
01:42:00 Forbes 400 source of wealth





O Brexit Day! Callooh! Callay!

"And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?

  Come to my arms, my beamish boy!

O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!'

  He chortled in his joy.

`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves did gyre and gimble in the wabe.  All mimsy were the borogoves, and the mome raths outgrabe.

Yep, that's about how much sense the morning run makes as the UK heads to the polls on Brexit day.  Early exit polls show the Remain camp with a slight lead and our indexes have rocketed back to their highs, where we've taken the opportunity to short them this morning.  My note to our Members in our Live Chat Room was:

Nice test of 2,100 on /ES, which is a good shorting line along with 17,8000 on /YM, 4,450 on /NQ and 1,160 on /TF and 16,600 on /NKD is ridiculous since the Dollar is down half a point (93.23) but safer to short the US indexes since the Dollar coming back would be good for /NKD.

For our Futures, we're shorting at the 1% lines and expecting at least a small pullback off the EU's 2.5% lines to pull us back a bit.  /NKD is happy because it's the Euro and Pound driving down the Yen, not the Dollar..

It's very easy to play the Futures.  We had a Live Trading Webinar yesterday and we made $475 in 30 minutes just demonstrating it (we were long Oil (/CL) and Gasoline (/RB) Futures at the time, now short oil at $50 with tight stops above).  

Why are we shorting?  Aside from the obvious technical reason, the initial reaction is often an over-reaction and there is NO WAY that they can be certain of the vote since they haven't even begun to count yet.  In fact, per this chart of the UK announcements, we won't hear the first official count until 5pm EST, as the polls don't even close until 10pm in the UK and it won't be until 5am UK (midnight EST) that 75% of the votes are counted…
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Five-Word Financial Advice for New Graduates

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

Morgan Housel did a thing where he asked a bunch of us for simple advice, in a five-word sentence, for the new graduating class of 2016 – about 3 million Americans.

I actually found the assignment to be pretty easy, my five-word advice popped into my head immediately. And it’s something I wish was explained to me when I was 18.

Click over to Morgan’s article for my advice, plus some words of wisdom from Eddy Elfenbein, Cullen Roche, Ben Carlson, Sam Ro and others:

Simple Financial Advice for New Grads (Motley Fool) 

Screenshot from Simple Financial Advice for New Grads (Motley Fool) 






 
 
 

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Erases Brexit Selloff as U.S. Crude Supplies, Dollar Decline (Bloomberg)

Oil erased the two-day plunge that followed Britain’s vote to leave the European Union after U.S. crude inventories dropped for a sixth week while the dollar retreated against its peers.

Most banks get Fed clearance to lift dividends and increase stock buybacks...



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Zero Hedge

"The British Woke Up!" Paul Craig Roberts Asks "Can The Americans?"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

In our time to be truthful is to be provocative. To write provocatively leaves little room for error or mistatement as today’s euphemism terms it. I could shill for the establishment and be wrong 98% of the time and nothing ever would be said about it. But there is no forgiveness for a provocative truth-teller.

You have open inquiring minds and you want to know. Your motives are not to protect your illusions and de...



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Phil's Favorites

Teachers Unions Vs Hedge Funds: The Battle Over Billions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Randi Weingarten is the president of the American Federation of Teachers, and is a name that hedge fund managers and those on Wall Street are beginning to learn quite well.

About a decade ago, some liberals joined conservatives in pushing to expand charter schools. As the WSJ reports, those efforts received financial support from hedge fund managers including Dan Loeb, Paul Singer and Paul Tudor Jones, who together kicked in millions of do...



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Chart School

Moving Averages: Month-End Preview

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month. At this point, before the close on the last day of the month, all three S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — unchanged from last month's triple "invested" signal. Four of five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), iShares' Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), PowerShares DB (DBC) and Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), — are signaling "invested", changed from last month's all invested signal.

...

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ValueWalk

TESARO Inc (TSRO) Shares On Drug Trial Success, Up 1100 Percent

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Shares of TESARO Inc (NASDAQ:TSRO) are super hot today today on Ovarian Cancer results and the rally could continue to be hot until phase 3 results in the fall. The stock is up at the time of this written by over $40, 110%, destroying the shorts (at least for today). The sell side are panicing to play catch up with price targets here is what they are saying.

Jefferies:

This morning TESARO Inc (NASDAQ:TSRO reported long-waited Ph3 NOVA data, showing s.s. PFS benefits in both cohorts; plans to file for U.S. & EU approval in 4Q16. Contrary to our cautious stance on non-gBRCAm/HRD+ arm following experts’ discussions, this arm also showed s.s clinically meaningful PFS benefits of ~9mo. AE profile was consistent with Ph1 data (most common Gr3/4 AEs thrombocytopenia, anemia & neutropenia). Full data to b...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

London- Attempting bullish upside breakout, following Brexit

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The media seems to be focused on the Brexit issue, with most of the coverage suggesting it was a negative event. Regardless of the media’s focus, prices are attempting to do something in Europe, that could be bullish and surprise a few investors.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The FTSE 100 Index remains in a long-term bullish trend (lower highs and higher highs) over the past 5-years. The bottom of the rising channel (A) was hit in Fe...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 27th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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