The Most Powerful Force In The Universe

 

The Most Powerful Force In The Universe

Courtesy of 

Anyone can solve the equation 6+6+6+6. But ask somebody to calculate 6x6x6x6 without a machine and they’re going to look at you cross-eyed. The human brain was designed for linear, not exponential processing.

The other day I joked about the Dow reaching 2,000,000 by the year 2099, a one hundred fold gain from today’s prices. I was only kidding, but Morgan Housel told me for that to occur, the Dow would need to compound at 5.7% for the next 83 years. Considering the Dow has grown 7.14%  a year for the last 75 years, this seems totally within the realm of possibility.

This example from The Art of Thinking Clearly illustrates why the Dow reaching 2 million was completely beyond my comprehension (emphasis mine): “A piece of paper is folded in two, then in half again, and again and again. How thick will it be after fifty folds?…Take an astronomical guess. What would be a ridiculous number? Well, if we assume that a sheet of copy paper is approximately .004 inches thick, then its thickness after fifty folds is a little over sixty million miles. This equals the distance between the earth and the sun….Linear growth we understand intuitively. However, we have no sense of exponential growth.”

Let’s take a look at what compounding can do in the stock market. The chart below shows SPY since inception, with dividends included, versus the S&P 500 index, price only. The difference in returns over the last 24 years is an astounding 284%!

The cumulative dividend payout over this time is 46%, so this alone isn’t responsible for the gap. The remaining 238% is the magic of compounding; Dividends on top of dividends and returns on top of returns.

spread

The most powerful force in the universe, as Einstein referred to it, is something that eludes many of us for two main reasons. One, most people just don’t understand how it works. For instance, 10% growth for 25 years is not 250%, it’s 985%! The second reason why many fail to take advantage of compounding is because it takes time. Like,


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  • What a quarter! (AAPL, etc.) "People react; PSW'ers anticipate." Thanks everyone for a vibrant board.

    Silentstorm

  • Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

    MrMocha

  • Phil- great call in oil this morning! Now that Im no longer studying and am back in the real world I can only check this in the morning, at lunch, and after work. Anyways, you've been killing it on oil ( even more than you usually do) so I made a point to wake up extra early and made .25 off your ‘buy oil if you're brave'recommendation. It's nice to wake up and scalp 100+ bucks before I even start my real job. You lay those golden eggs everyday Phil! I thank you for that!

    Jromeha

  • Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

    Doro165

  • Phil I have been telling you for a while how I feel like I am really understanding you now and thanking you. Well today may have been my most successful futures trading day since I began here and the week has been spectacular! It has just seemed so easy when you give us a range and I execute properly. Thanks once again for teaching me to fish. My portfolio gained over 10% this week which is just amazing.

    Craiga620

  • Thanks for the USO mention, Phil, 140% on my USO lottery ticket in 12 hours, and no hesitation in taking the money and running — you have trained us well. Sometimes it's teaching, but with this kind of stuff, where you get whipped like a dog if you let 250% profit melt away, it's definitely training. Happy Fourth!!!

    Zeroxzero

  • Took profit on QQQ 57 Puts, bot 40 at $0.07, sold 20 for $0.15 and 20 for $0.32. Thank, Phil

    Bobhu

  • Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

    CanuckBob

  • New member/1st time posting: Thanks Phil and Pharm for the rec on TOS. I've emailed Scott to get myself setup so I hope to hear back soon. As a newbie on PSW for a month now, I've been readin' and readin' and readin'. Gonna start paper-trading for a while. See how I do before putting a single dime into it. New at options but seems like this is the best training and educational platform out there. I'm a long-time mortgage broker who got too involved with real estate investing. LOVED your article, Phil, on mortgage interest scams. Right on!! Let me know if and how I can contribute back to the community here. Cheers! - Mark

    Mark

  • Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.

    Tchayipov

  • Thanks for you guidance – Your "student" will be passing on the McMuffins and having Lobster dinners tonight!

    Aquila

  • Nice call on the QQQ puts this morning Phil. I bought 10 at .13 this morning for fun day trade. Just closed at .95. Sweet hedge for the day!

    RevTodd64

  • That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.

    Kwan

  • Phil: Closed out ZION with 49 % gain!

    RMM

  • Phil, thanks for the webinar and options subject…I wasn't shown as attending but I was there for most of it. Your memory amazes me, your speed on the computer amazes me, your math skills blow me away. coke

    Coke

  • TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

    Gel1

  • Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

    Neverworkagain

  • Phil… My portfolio, in the past few months, has acheived a high degree of stabilization. I've noticed that on up days, down days, even days, it doesn't matter, my portfolio rarely varies more than 2%. And over the long haul it just slowly increases in value. I attribute this not to investment choices, but to style. Thanks to you and others on this site I'm paying close attention to position size, delta neutrality, downside protection, and concentrating on selling premium rather than buying it. I've developed increasing patience, not having to trade daily, or even weekly. I'm concentrating on the finer points of trading, letting the profits come to me, rather than the other way around. I appreciate the help everyone here has given in getting me focused on this principle. I'm pumped!…in a calm sort of way.

    Iflantheman

  • Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

    Bjkeck

  • /NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.

    JohnO

  • WOW, look at DRYS go. Nice call on the entry the other week Phil. I got 200 at $6.66 and sold a 7.5 call for $.50, then on the tear today sold another 7.5 call for $1. This should puts me in at an average of $5.91 and called away at $7.5 for a profit of $300+ after commisions. Once again another Phil trade pays for this months membership.

    Craigzooka

  • Blessings, ALL: So we have completed two months of 2015. So far it has been a good ride with my PSW all short put portfolio showing a 15.73% gain with $83K in profits harvested in 2015.

    IHS4GOD

  • I have definitely learned to take smaller wins early and be happy with that. Lately, I've aimed for $250 profit per day. Doing that daily/weekly x 48 weeks (assuming I take some time off) works out to 60k per year. That's a lot of money!! $250 moves happen all the time if you just wait for them.

    JeffDoc

  • I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

    Dennis

  • Praising PSW for enlightenment is a bit akin to praising the Pope for being holy. I've been reading PSW for about two months now and have learned more about investing technique and the world in general than I've learned from the books and seminars I've paid for. Thanks for the enlightenment, the education, the guidance and the truth, which is not a commodity these days, but a virtue in short supply.

    Andy Morris

  • There are a lot of us that have been here a long time and we all learn something everyday. Just keep asking questions, there are a lot of smart people here and they are willing to help and then of course, you have Phil.

    Jr Mints

  • GMCR – Just bought back my Jan $90 callers on GMCR for a nice $10,000 gain. Thanks for the recommendation Phil! It was nice to cash in on a momo.

    Palotay

  • Hey I just did a nice options trade on LL for $800 (50%) gain thanks to this site, so… not bad for my first day! An hour of reading you guys and I already paid for two months subscription! Thank you!

    lchu

  • thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….

    Kwan

  • Phil, I wanted to thank you for all of your teaching, advice, and guidance. Because of you I don't chase, don't worry about missed chances, and play things much more selectively. Yesterday's /ES and /TF and today /CL are my first futures plays of the month. Thanks Phil. (Out of /TF and /ES yesterday with a nice gain)

    Japarikh

Wonderful Wednesday – Oil Sell-Off Gives us $1,500 Gains to Start the Week

Wheeeeeee! 

That's the sound we make at PSW when we get a nice sell-off and it doesn't get much nicer than making $1,500 PER CONTRACT off our call to short Oil Futures (/CL) at $53.20 in yesterday morning's post as we rode down a $1.50 drop back to $51.70.  

That wasn't our only winner either – Gasoline contracts (/RB) were shorted at $1.65 and they fell quickly to $1.60 so we took that money ($2,100 per contract) and ran though they picked up yet another $840 in the overnights as gasoline continued to fall – all the way to $1.58 this morning where we flipped long (as well as long on oil at $52.50 on the new, /CLH7 March contracts) – looking for a small bounce but with little conviction – as we still think oil can go lower.  

As we have told you, we can make great calls like this because the energy markets are just a scam and we have a pretty good idea of how that scam works.

Now, there are some people (who shall remain nameless) who think that NYMEX traders trading 4 BILLION barrels worth of contracts (4M) back and forth during a month in order to ultimately accept delivery of less than 20M barrels (0.5%) is somehow legitimate speculation but the friction costs alone of trading 200 barrels for each barrel delivered ads $20 to each barrel purchased in the US – even if it were legitimate, the practice should be stopped!  

Yesterday, I printed a chart of the NYMEX open contracts and I said that the 197,589 open orders (at 1,000 barrels per contract) for February were FAKE!!! and that they would be cancelled and put into other months to FAKE!!! demand in future months so the cycle can repeat.  Our short bet was based on the pressure they had to sell or roll the Feb barrels over the next few days.  Already today we can see the difference:


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Brain or Machine? Investing Holy Grail

 

Brain or Machine? Investing Holy Grail

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Source: Photobucket

Paul Meehl was a versatile academic who held numerous faculty positions, covering the diverse disciplines of psychology, law, psychiatry, neurology, and yes, even philosophy. The crux of his research was focused on how well clinical analysis fared versus statistical analysis. Or in other words, he looked to answer the controversial question, “What is a better predictor of outcomes, a brain or an equation?” His conclusion was straightforward – mechanical methods using quantitative measures are much more efficient than the professional judgments of humans in coming to more accurate predictions.

Those who have read my book, How I Managed $20,000,000,000.00 by Age 32 know where I stand on this topic – I firmly believe successful investing requires a healthy balance between both art and science (i.e., “brain and equation”). A trader who only relies on intuition and his gut to make all of his/her decisions is likely to fall on their face. On the other hand, a quantitative engineer’s sole dependence on a robotic multi-factor model to make trades is likely to fail too. My skepticism is adequately outlined in my Butter in Bangladesh article, which describes how irrational statistical games can be misleading and overused.

As much as I would like to attribute all of my investment success to my brain, the emotion-controlling power of numbers has played an important role in my investment accomplishments as well. The power of numbers simply cannot be ignored. More than 50 years after Paul Meehl’s seminal research was published, about two hundred studies comparing brain power versus statistical power have shown that machines beat brains in predictive accuracy in the majority of cases. Even when expert judgments have won over formulas, human consistency and reliability have muddied the accuracy of predictions.

Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner in Economics, highlights another important decision making researcher, Robyn Dawes. What Dawes discovers in her research is that the fancy and complex multiple regression methods used in conventional software adds little to no value in the predictive decision-making process. Kahneman describes Dawes’s findings more specifically here:

“A formula that combines these predictors with equal weights is likely to be just as accurate in


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Tricky Tuesday – How Will the Markets Perform with Volume Trading?

Image result for slow trading dayAre we there yet?

The average volume trading on SPY, the S&P ETF is 100M shares per day yet this month, the average has been 70M so about 30% less trading than "usual", which was very slow to begin with (down 25% from last year).  A lot of times, if you are day-trading and you feel like you're the only one in a position – you are probably right!  

As you can see from the above chart, when you see these kind of toppy, sloppy patterns – it's best just not to trade and wise traders go to CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?) and wait PATIENTLY for conditions to improve.  If that chart looks familiar to you – just check out what the S&P 500 Futures (/ES) have been doing for the past few weeks:

That is what they call a "textbook" example of a market that is not good to trade.  That's why we stopped making calls in our morning posts after a fantastic first week of the year:  A) We didn't want to ruin our perfect record and B) There were no longer any very obvious trades to call.  We did, however, call oil short at $54 on the 6th and it's been up and down but now $53.20, which is still up $800 per contract from where we called it and now we're calling that one short again (/CL) as well as Gasoline (/RB) at the $1.65 line.

Why are we short oil and gasoline?  Well oil, in particular, is nothing more than a gigantic fraud of a market that is based on the artificial manipulation of what has always been, historically, a plentiful supply.  As we all know, OPEC spent most of last year promising to cut production and, FINALLY, this January they actually did cut production, by 1.5% of Global supply and this morning they spiked oil from $52.20 to $53.20 by releasing a statement from the Secretary General predicting oil prices would stabilize in 2017 and hit $70 by the year's end.  


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“What Will We Be Talking About This Time Next Year” – Here Is Jeff Gundlach’s Answer

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Over the weekend, Barron's published its annual roundtable in which prominent investors previewed what they expect out of 2017: "a year of seismic shifts for the markets and, quite possibly, the world. Or, as Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said at this year’s Barron’s Roundtable, “We are breaking a lot of trends.” As Barron's dubbed it, "this could be the year the movie runs backward: Inflation awakens. Bond yields reboot. Stocks stumble. Active management rules. And we haven’t even touched on the coming regime change in Washington, which will usher tax cutters and regulatory reformers back to power after an eight-year absence."

While there were many insightful observations by the group of participants – whose sentiment was decidedly more bearish than during last year's event – which included Scott Black, Felix Zulauf, Mario Gabelli, Meryl Witmer, Brian Rogers, Oscar Schafer, and Abby Cohen, we will focus on the predictions of Jeffrey Gundlach, if only due to his track record from the similar Barron's roundtable one year earlier, in which he turned out to be far more prescient than most of his peers, not least of all because he "made the greatest prediction at last year’s Roundtable—that Trump would win the presidency."

The first question posed to Gundlach was also the broadest one: what are you predicting now?

People have forgotten the mood regarding stocks and bonds in the middle of 2016. Investors embraced the idea that zero interest rates and negative rates would be with us for a very long time. People said on TV that you should buy stocks for income and bonds for capital gains. This is when 10-year Treasuries were yielding 1.32%. Someone actually said rates would never rise again. When you hear “never” in this business, that usually means what could “never” happen is about to happen. I told our asset-allocation team in early July that this was the worst setup I’d seen in my entire career for U.S. bonds. It occurred to me that the bond-market rally was probably very near an end, and fiscal stimulus would soon become the order of the day.

Based on a comparison in July of nominal Treasuries to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, the bond market was


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Matt Taibbi: “Insane Clown President Trump Was Right About The Media”

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While U.S. political journalist Matt Taibbi has made no bones about his dislike of Donald Trump… (via Rolling Stone a day after the election):

Most of us smarty-pants analysts never thought Trump could win because we saw his run as a half-baked white-supremacist movement fueled by last-gasp, racist frustrations of America's shrinking silent majority. Sure, Trump had enough jackbooted nut jobs and conspiracist stragglers under his wing to ruin the Republican Party. But surely there was no way he could topple America's reigning multicultural consensus. How could he? After all, the country had already twice voted in an African-American Democrat to the White House.

Yes, Trump's win was a triumph of the hideous racism, sexism and xenophobia that has always run through American society. But his coalition also took aim at the neoliberal gentry's pathetic reliance on proxies to communicate with flyover America. They fed on the widespread visceral disdain red-staters felt toward the very people Hillary Clinton's campaign enlisted all year to speak on its behalf: Hollywood actors, big-ticket musicians, Beltway activists, academics, and especially media figures.

Trump's rebellion was born at the intersection of two toxic American myths, the post-racial society and the classless society.

CBC reports that the Rolling Stone columnist admits in his new book - "Insane Clown President: Dispatches from the 2016 Circus"the president-elect got more than a few things right during an election campaign that brought to the forefront America's struggles with racism, class divide and economic stagnation.

One of Trump's gambles that really paid off, according to Taibbi, was painting a target on the back of the U.S. political media.

"The media and politicians had spent so much time with each other that they lost touch with regular people, and Trump capitalized on that. He made us in the media villains, representative of this out of touch, ivory tower political culture," he said.

 

"I think there's some fairness to it, as much as I dislike Donald Trump, he hit a note, several notes, in this campaign that were true, and that was one of them."

Another one, he says, is Washington corruption.


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Phil's Favorites

Lest We Forget

 

Lest We Forget

Courtesy of 

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

In this web exclusive, Bill Moyers and four historians dissect the big lie Trump rode to power: the Birther lie. Nell Painter, historian and Edwards Professor of American History, Emerita, at Princeton University; Khalil Gibran Muhammad, professor of history, race and public policy at Harvard Kennedy School; Christopher Lebro...



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Zero Hedge

These Are The 3 Main Issues For Europe In 2017

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Shapiro and Jacob Shapiro via MauldinEconomics.com,

What will the year ahead look like for Europe? 2017 will be another chapter in the European Union’s slow unraveling… a process that has been underway for over a decade.

The EU is a union in name only. The transfer of sovereignty to Brussels was never total, and member states are independent countri...



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ValueWalk

Great Interviews: The Psychology of Human Misjudgement Charlie Munger

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Great Interviews: The Psychology of Human Misjudgement Charlie Munger

]]> Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

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The post Great Interviews...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Mr. President you want this to hold, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Consumer Confidence of late has continued to move higher, now reaching above the highs hit back in 2007. Long-Term S&P 500 returns are far below historical norms, when confidence is this high. We are not saying that high consumer confidence means the market is at a top!

Below is a look at the Advance/Decline line on a short-term basis.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts; It could be important for support to hold, of this bearish rising wedge above.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil and Trump: Russians full of optimism in Davos (Reuters)

Twelve months ago, the mood of the Russian delegation at the World Economic Forum in Davos was distinctly gloomy, with oil prices near 12-year lows below $30 per barrel and Western sanctions depressing their economy and financial markets.

The Mortgage Market’s $1 Trillion Pocket of Worry (The Wall Street Journal)

Bonds backed by certain risky single-family mortgages topped $1 trillion for the first time in November, crossing that threshold amid rising warnings for one corner of the housing market.

...



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Chart School

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,


The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it's suggesting the S&P will follow suit....

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Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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