by phil - February 21st, 2015 6:28 am
In 2015, Philstockworld.com is focusing on wealth-building techniques which, combined with our winning investing strategies, can help put you on the path to a life of financial independence.
by phil - February 20th, 2015 8:18 am
Wheeeee, what a ride!
As you can see from the chart, Greece has been up and down 10% 4 times in 5 days and last week we gave you a Trade Idea for Greece long using the GREK Feb (expires today) $11/12 bull call spread at 0.50 to make 100% in 5 days (today) if GREK finishes over $12.
Unfortunately, GREK had a strong open on Thursday and, by the time people could buy it, the spread was 0.60 so, at $12, the gain will only be 66% but those who played the momentum game during the week had several opportunities to engineer a 0.50 spread as the ETF ran up and down the ladder with each new statement by pretty much anyone in Europe with an opinion.
Our other trade idea from that day, that IYT would fall and the Feb $159 puts at $1.20 would double, however, was off by a mile and IYT tested $165 yesterday before calming down to $163.08 despite the now week-long port strike on the West Coast. I can't explain that one, other than maybe we were too far ahead of the curve. If you want to go for it next month, the premise is still valid (our timing was off) and the March $161 puts are now $2 and a trip back to support at $155 would make them $6 – up 200% would take the edge of this week's loss.
Our CSCO spread we discussed that day is up the 4,000% we expected and our UNG March $13/14 bull call spread is on track for a 100% gain so all is not lost. These are your last free trade ideas for the quarter – so try to enjoy them! If you want more trade ideas, you can join us here like our new Member, Verreaul recently did (and thanks for the kind words!):
I have been reading the "free" PSW for about a year and have always liked Phil's style as it closely resembled the way I like to trade (mostly naked put options). I have been a paid subscriber for about 5 weeks and I have been learning a lot from Phil
by phil - February 19th, 2015 8:30 am
What a great morning we're having!
We were having a discussion in our Live Member Chat Room this morning about why we were staying short-term bearish despite the low-volume rally of the last few days when the market began to spike higher, so I immediately put out a note to our Members saying:
Wow, Futures flying straight up now, about 0.3% the other way now – nice morning swing. /NQ testing 4,400 for a fun short with tight stops and /ES 2,099.50 and /YM 18,030 (no short above 18,000) and /TF 1,230. As long as /TF and either /ES or /NQ are below their lines – I'm for shorting any of those 3.
The Russell hit 1,222 (up $700 per contract) and the S&P hit 2,091 (up $425 per contract) and the Dow paid $250 at 17,950 – so the Egg McMuffins are paid for and we can start our trading day.
Of course that's nothing compared to the Trade Idea we gave you yesterday morning (and these newsletters come to you pre-market, every day by SUBSCRIBING HERE) to short Oil Futures (/CLJ5) at $53.50, which are up $3,000 PER CONTRACT this morning at $50.50. That's not bad for a day's work and it keeps our hourly profit rate well over $500 for the day (we had a good start yesterday morning too).
What gave us a quick round-trip this morning was, of coruse, yet another Greece fire. This time it was Germany saying "Nein!" to giving Greece a 6-month loan extension saying Greece's proposal was "not substantial" – meaning it didn't guarantee the Banksters who really run the Government would get paid. "In its rejection, Germany argued that the Greek request doesn't meet the bailout requirements and said the proposal only aims at getting bridging financing without fulfilling its commitments."
I know this may come as a shock to the EU Banksters but, when you lend money to someone at 10-20% interest rates, which they have to pay because you have rated them a terrible credit risk – THE RISK IS THAT THEY CAN'T PAY YOU BACK! What's going on…
by ilene - February 18th, 2015 12:10 pm
Growing your wealth isn't just about making money in the stock market. In 2015, Philstockworld.com will focus on wealth-building techniques which, combined with our winning investing strategies, can help put you on the path to a life of financial independence.
by phil - February 18th, 2015 8:03 am
Yay, S&P 2,100! Now what?
As we predicted yesterday morning, nothing was going to stop the S&P from banging up to that 2,100 line. Not for lack of trying, either as we had a 22% decline in the Empire State Manufacturing Index and a 2% decline in the Housing Market Index but none of that matters because Greece is going to be fixed again so the markets flew higher – albeit only at the last minute on no volume. Still – it's a pretty picture, isn't it?.
We demonstrated the idiocy of the markets yesterday for our Members in our Live Webinar by scaling into a short position on March Oil Futures (/CLH5), which ran up while we were doing a demonstration on scaling in. We decided to stay short overnight and, this morning, we were rewarded with a $4,000 gain. Now we've flipped to the April Futures (/CLJ5) in our Live Member Chat Room, which we're shorting at $53.50 in anticipation of another nice dip today.
Of course we told you, right in yesterday's morning post (which you can have delivered to you pre-market daily by clicking here) that we were shorting oil at $53.50 and they fell all the way to $51 at 10 am, for a lovely $2,500 per contract gain. By all means though – SAVE your money and DON'T subscribe to the newsletter – I'm sure everyone you read gives you trade ideas that make $2,500 per contract in 95 minutes, so there's no need to read our little ideas.
Of course, $2,500 per contract is nothing compared to Premium Articles, like our "Secret Santa's Inflation Hedges for 2015," which had 4 great trade ideas, two of which are still playable but XHB (Home Builder ETF) isn't, as the 20 2016 $28 puts we sold for $2.25 ($4,500) on 12/21 are already down to 0.70 ($1,400), for a very nice 68.8% gain in just 2 months ($3,100) good thing you didn't waste money on a subscription in December, right?
by Sabrient - February 17th, 2015 4:54 pm
Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics
Stocks are hitting new highs across the board, even though earnings reports have been somewhat disappointing. Actually, to be more precise, Q4 results have been pretty good, but it is forward guidance that has been cautious and/or cloudy as sales into overseas markets are expected to suffer due to strength in the US dollar. Healthcare and Telecom have put in the best results overall, while of course Energy has been the weakling. Still, overall year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 during 2015 is expected to be about +8%.
In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.
Despite cautious earnings guidance and a steady stream of doom-and-gloom in the news from all corners of the globe, the Dow Jones Industrials closed last week above 18,000, while the S&P 500 is pushing for a close above 2100 and the NASDAQ is gunning for 4900. For the week, the Dow gained +1.1%, the S&P 500 +2.0%, and the NASDAQ +3.2%. Furthermore, the S&P 400 Mid caps, the Russell 2000 small caps, and the broad Wilshire 5000 have all achieved new highs, as well. Evidently, U.S. equities remain a relative safe haven for cautious but hungry global investors who have cheap money in their clutches, thanks to global liquidity and currency wars.
Craig Lazzara of S&P Dow Jones Indices penned an article earlier in the month in which he observed that while the S&P 500 total return was -3% in January, the strengthening dollar-versus-euro exchange rate allowed European investors to earn +4% by holding dollar-denominated U.S. equities, as the euro fell -7% against the dollar. So, assuming the dollar continues to generally strengthen against other currencies, the U.S. stands to benefit from global capital flows, even as earnings among multinational U.S. firms encounter headwinds from the same…