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Happy New Year from Philstockworld!

Its Always Something GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHYThis was a LONG year.

I was in Thailand this time last year, working on a project with the Thai Government to bring medicinal cannabis to the country with Hemp Boca and New Age – two of our PSW Investments partners.  As with most things in 2020, that project is now on hold but it seems like a different world where I went to an airport and got on a plane and walked around a crowded terminal without a mask on, etc.  

I'm 57 years old and there's been no point in my lifetime where the world has changed so drastically.  World War I was the "war to end all wars" and then there was the 1918 Pandemic and then the Great Depression and then World War II (since the "war to end all wars" didn't, they decided just to start numbering them) and then we had a nuclear arms race then a global recession in the 70s and then the financial system melted down and now this – it's always something, isn't it?  

My Grandpa Max was born in 1903 and died in 1999 – having caught most of the action and it always gave me the perspective that "this too shall pass" though, while you are in the thick of things – it sure doesn't seem so, does it?  

We started this year optimistically with "2020 Vision – Looking at the Year Ahead in the Markets" and we called for a long on Oil (/CL) at $61 and a long on Natural Gas (/NG) at $2.16 and Natural Gas topped out at $3.40 in November but Oil hit $65 in January but then collapsed to $10 in April and is only back to $48 now.

On January 15th it was: "Working it Out Wednesday – Is the Trade Deal the Beginning or End of the Rally?" – remember the trade deal with China?  Hard to believe that was our top concern a year ago.  That day, our Money Talk Portfolio had just 3 trades in it:

GOLD and SPWR were clearly outperformers but IBM is lower than it was at the time but, fortunately, we took advantage and rolled our long calls lower so now we're at:

IBM Short Call 2022 21-JAN 140.00 CALL [IBM @ $124.34 $0.00] -8 11/14/2019 (386) $-9,200 $11.50 $-5.65 $-5.50     $5.85 $0.00 $4,520 49.1% $-4,680
IBM Short Put 2022 21-JAN 135.00 PUT [IBM @ $124.34 $0.00] -4 11/14/2019 (386) $-8,460 $21.15 $2.18     $23.33 $0.00 $-870 -10.3% $-9,330
IBM Long Call 2022 21-JAN 110.00 CALL [IBM @ $124.34 $0.00] 8 3/12/2020 (386) $9,600 $12.00 $7.30     $19.30 $0.00 $5,840 60.8% $15,440

This is still just net $1,430 on the $24,000 spread and all IBM has to do is get back to $140 over the next 12 months for a potential $22,570 (1,578%) profit.  You can just do that one trade and call it a year! 

Members of a military medical team were deployed to Wuhan on Sunday.On Jan 21st it was: "Trumped Up Tuesday – Let the Impeachment Begin!" but on January 27th, I warned: "Viral Outbreak Infects Global Markets", saying:

Chinese markets are closed for the holidays or they would be down too as about 3,000 people are now infected by the coronavirus and it was 1,000 when I warned about it on Thursday so we're close to 50% daily increases in infections and we still aren't clear on the incubation period of the virus and we have no treatment for it either.  That is, as we say in the medical community – NOT GOOD!

Do you have an extra $1,000,000,000,000 set aside in case of emergency?  We'll find out who does and who doesn't as China has already pledged $9Bn to help contain the virus and, if you do the math, that's $3,000 per infected patient in a country where health care costs are 1/4 of what we spend in the US.  Let's hope the infections level off soon but there's not likely to be a quick fix to this thing and, even in the best case, China is shut down for 2 weeks and that's going to hit the GDP for about $400Bn (2.8%) – so the effect on Global Markets will be lingering.

Sadly, it turns out $1Tn was a very low estimate for what would be required as the World ended up spending $14Tn (so far) fighting the virus.  By Feb 10th the virus had clearly spread to the US and it was: "Monday Market Movement – 40,000 Infection, Almost 1,000 Dead – Why Worry?"  Then we started crashing:  

2,191 was where we bottomed out a bit later but we were turning bullish at the bottom because, as I noted on March 24th "Turnaround Tuesday – Yes, $3Tn is a LOT of Money!"  

MORE FREE MONEY!!!

We're closer to it today than yesterday so the markets have gotten over their temper tantrum about yesterday's delay and now counting the uncountable riches that are about to be thrown around by our Government and our Federal Reserve as well as all the other Central Banksters around the World and we're even having an emergency G20 meeting to discuss even more bailouts for our Top 1% Corporate Citizens because they should never ever suffer the consequences of their bad decisions – like letting the Oligarchs run the World, leaving us totally unprepared to handle a Humanitarian crisis (I know, so many big words to look up!). 

That same day we did our March Portfolio Reviews and you can see all the key bullish adjustments we made to take advantage of the sell-off.  That's why we had such a fantastic year – we were worried about the virus early and we shifted gears at just the right time when the stimulus began.  As I said at the time:

Well, here we are, at the bottom of that 40% sell-off and, as expected, we're having to pull a bit more cash off the sidelines as some of our new portfolios got crushed.  This is going to be an odd review because we made more than one adjustment in the past two weeks on some portfolios and I'll do my best to consolidate all the moves here.  The bottom line is we got a lot more aggressive around March expirations (20th) and yesterday (23rd), as the market hit rock bottom, we went gung-ho bullish in our LTP and Butterfly Portfolios in anticipation of a massive Congressional Bail-Out Package.  

Hopefully, that provides a catalyst to form a floor at the 40% off line and we can consolidate between here and the 20% off (the top) lines, which is where the market should be in the first place – the rest was just fluff – that's why we cashed out in September – at S&P 3,000!  

Image result for money printing animated gifThat's been the story of the year since then – the Fed never did run out of ammunition and the rally is still going.  

We can consider this week's whole 5% a buffer but I'll feel better reducing our risk by removing some longs, raising our cash and that, in turn, will make our hedges stronger – because they have less to protect.  We'll keep an eye on gold, which is selling off sharply as everying is "fixed" and America is going back to work, as well as the VIX, which has been calming down (another big boost to our premium-selling portfolios). 

We'll see how long all this "great" news lasts as they look to reopen the states.  My main worry this week was going over the 1M infection mark (check) and passing the number of deaths we had in the 20-year Vietnam War (58,000 – check) but that doesn't seem to bother anyone and now we have miracle cures and vaccines are on the way – so why shouldn't we be celebrating? 

Maybe none of it's true but, for now – let's enjoy!  

Leonard Nimoy Spock GIF - LeonardNimoy Spock Shit GIFs(5/7) Thrilling Thursday – Futures are Up because… Who the F**k Knows?

Don't ask me to explain this BS.

Yes, I know it's my job to explain this BS but sometimes I'm like Leonard Nimoy at the end of "In Search Of" when he would say "That is some strange sh*t" – or at least that's how I remember it ending… 

Speaking of ending, Trump is sending everyone back to work and wanted to disband the Coronavirus Task Force (people freaked out, so that's off for now) and, as usual, it takes less than 24 hours for his BS to be exposed as YESTERDAY the US once again led the World with 24,245 new infections, bringing our total to 1,228,457 so that's a 2% increase for the day which (doing the math for our Fox viewers) is a rate of 60% more per month, which would bring us to just under 2M infections in the next 30 days WITH THE LOCKDOWNS. 

But nooooooooooooooooooooo!, we're not going to continue the lockdowns are we?  Lockdowns are for pussies and we're Americans and Donald Trump says (literally, he actually said this) that we should be good soldiers and march back to work and many of us will be injured and some of us will die (more than Vietnam already) but the virus is our enemy and the way Trump wants to defeat it is by throwing American lives at it until it gives up!

More free money!!!

The Senate Republicans are expected to vote on the CARES Act 2 (it's a 5-act play) and this will be the beginning of two weeks of negotiations with the House, who already voted on a much more extensive measure to prop up the economy.  The $600 weekly unemployment benefit will expire on Friday and most economists predict a complete disaster if that's not extended to 30M unemployed Americans.   "We're not going to pay people more money to stay at home than work," US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday on CNBC using the poor grammer of a person who's never worked a day in his life and has sold his soul to Satan.

?Signal, GZERO Media"Mr. President, you’re right about one thing: the American people are tired. They’re tired of your lies about this virus," Biden said in a written statement. "They’re tired of watching more Americans die and more people lose their jobs because you refuse to take this pandemic seriously. Now, more than ever, we need a leader to bring us together, put a plan in place, and beat this virus — but you have proven yourself yet again to be incapable of doing that."

TOMMY EXPLAINED!!! | michaelckeysWhat is most significant about that last one is that November 10th was just 51 days ago and now we're at 20M.  While we are thrilled there is a vaccine - so far only 3M people have been given it and, 51 days from now, we could have 20M more infections to deal with.  This isn't over folks – not by a long shot!  

America needs A Monorail!! - Monorail Guy | Meme Generator

MORE FREE MONEY!

That's what this economy is based on and that's what the people expect.  The way we make money in America is by MAKING MONEY – literally printing it and giving it away like… money.  I was going to say like candy but you can't create candy out of thin air so, if you tried to give away $6Tn in a year, you would go bankrupt and create sugar and labor shortages and even Bazooka Joe would run out of ideas for clever cartoons on the wrapper.  But MONEY – that is created by simply flipping a switch at the Fed that adds another zero to the balance sheet.  

Since 2008, our National Debt has climbed from a shocking $8Tn to what is a now a "Who gives a f*ck anymore?" $27Tn and, whether now or next quarter, the market is execting AT LEAST $2Tn of additional stimulus and at least $2Tn of additional debt in 2021 (there's no way to stop Trump's fiscal-year budget now) so we'll be over $30Tn in debt by the end of Q1 – more than 150% of our GDP.  How long do you think this can go on?

And here we are – at the end of a very long, very strange year.  Hopefully Powell is right and the Fed will never run out of firepower and hopefully Fauci is wrong and 100,000 new cases every eight hours won't be a big deal and hopefully I'm wrong and investors never wake up and face reality but, just in case, we do have our hedges and, for now, that's all we can be sure of into the new year.

Wishing you and your family a happy and HEALTHY New Year – let's hope 2021 is a big improvement and we can all forget about 2020!

 


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  1. I wish for a Happy and Healthy New Year to Phil and Crew and all of You!  


  2. Good morning to all of you on this board.

    I have one question for Phil or any of you fundis, I sometimes wish to transfer a copy or a snip shot on this page where I am writing on now, to better explain a play or a trade, like a snip of a TOS page, or as Phil presents his trades above, but I don't know how.

    Can any one help please. TIA


  3. yodi,

    Just did a snip of part of your post, put the cursor in the comment box and hit 'Ctrl V' and it copied it into the box.  I see it while writing, if you see it also then that is how it works.


  4. Guess it did not transfer to the blog, may not be able to transfer snips.


  5. No Lotter tried this before does not work


  6. What operating system do you use, Yodi? Windows has a snipping tool (IIRC that's what it's called, too) that is easy and effective for taking screen shots.


  7. MU jumped 3.3 % on up grade from Zacks 


  8. Yodi,

    Another option, also depending on your set up- & programs is Snip & Sketch- The shortcut is Windows logo key +shift+ S.


  9. Wishing everyone here at PSW a happy and healthy New Year.

     

    Question,   What is our 2021 trade of the year?


  10. Good morning!  

    Copy/Yodi – Do you guys have a "Tweet this" button or is it just me?  In any case, there's a program called "Capture Wiz" that I find super-useful for capturing anything you can see on your desktop.  It's on every computer I own, can't imagine publishing without it.

    Upgrades/Yodi – Wow, it's like no one ever discovered them before.  Shows you there's still money out there chasing any warm body.  

    2021/Stock – Still INTC.  Money Talk Portfolio Review, 2021′s Outlook & Trade of the Year

    WBA though, is coming back down and it would have been my Trade of the Year had it not popped over $40 into the show.  


  11. ABBV an other stock not to stop, but regret I feel it is to high now from my purchase of 90$, but who knows, I am just using it as a good trading horse. Now to get even a bit and possible still collect the div. payments you can sell the Aug 21 105 call for 8.20, the worse you could get called before the div. payment, however it gives you a downside protection to 97.80 


  12. Happy and Healthy New Year to all


  13. yodi, for what its worth dept.  yesterday, someone sold 2000 ABBV Jan2022 $130 calls for $2.87

    likely covering a position they all ready own.  


  14. Stockbern Thanks but I feel 2.87 is very little premium for more than a year. The question is how high will the stock still go????



  15. Comment content omitted because it is too long.


  16. Can't fix those Yodi, you have to cut it in half and try to break it up.  Happens when you try to past in something with a lot of HTML tags.


  17. Thank Phil tried to reduce the cut but just does not work. There is a way to copy it via word but it just does not play ball.


  18. yodi, short article about MRK in Barrons     dividend 3.23%

    you could buy stock $80.48 and sell June $80 call for $5.15    $75 level looks good on a chart


  19. oops that's the July $80 call


  20. ABBV just my Feb 21 110 call sold for 4.00 is better


  21. HNY PSW….C U on the other side!


  22. well the writing goes but even a short snip no go


  23. LIft a glass to a much better 2021. Both son and spouse have residual problems from the covid. Hearing and smell are affected.as well as memory. Thanks to all of you for your continued support and great information..


  24. stockbern MRK yes this is a good call I hold already various BCS's and covered calls on this one. Like to show you but this board does not play with it.


  25. 26-Nov-12 $44.20 b 200 stock @ 43.97

    MRK210115C80 15-Jan-21 80 -3 CALL 7.8 2.4 69.23%

    MRK210115C85 15-Jan-21 85 -2 CALL 6.26 0.37 94.07%

    MRK210115C85 15-Jan-21 85 -8 CALL 6.86 0.37 94.07%

    13-Mar-20 $74.97 MRK220121C70 21-Jan-22 70 13 CALL 12.4 13.65 10.08%

    MRK220121P50 21-Jan-22 50 -6 PUT 4.35 0.495 88.62%

    7-Dec-20 $82.51 MRK230120P72.5 20-Jan-23 72.5 -1 PUT 8.11 8.1 1.58%

    MRK230120C85 20-Jan-23 85 -1 CALL 8.26 7.875 4.66%

    MRK210115C85 15-Jan-21 85 -1 CALL 1.24 0.37 94.07%

    14-Dec-20 $80.68 MRK230120P72.5 20-Jan-23 72.5 -1 PUT 8.35 8.1 1.58%

    0 0.00%

    0 0.00%

    0 0.00%

    0 0.00%

    Cash in Hand 317% p/l ($184.00) $17,565.50 $33,851.50 


  26. Sorry not very clear copied it direct and pasted as you can see bought MRK in NOV 2012 for 43.97 and up over the years 33.8 K 10,000 trading hours I guess


  27. AMYZF is getting action. Canadian company that recycles lithium batteries and produces manganese which has to be imported by the US. .33. Have some will buy more. Reminds me of NAK.


  28. Wishing you and yours a Healthy and Happy New Year!


  29. WBA under 40. They are a sleeper for sure. They are offering covid testing and antibody testing without having to be referred by a provider. Good for the many who do not have any coverage for medical. Son needs a PCR test for traveling. With WBA you don't have to pay a Doc first for the referral. 24-36 hour turnaround. 


  30. The cost is 129.00.


  31. Not too sure how long we are still trading here but just for a test run filled stockbern idea on MRK 80.58 and 5.25 for the 80 call Jul 21.


  32. And here to all of you from sunny Spain I wish you a happy and healthy new year. Stay at home ???? the best you can do.


  33. Happy New Year to all from a nippy 50 degrees Atlanta


  34. INTC if anybody kept up with my occasional comments on intel, this is a really promising update. Tom’s Hardware: Intel Confirms On-Package HBM Memory Support for Sapphire Rapids.
    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/sapphire-rapids-hbm I think DDR5 in itself will be a major upgrade for SMT enabled processors but inclusion of any amount of HBM as a l3 or l4 cache would be a massive performance boost. Doesn’t change my thoughts on the ISA but this will be fantastic for the HPC crowd.


  35. 8800 50C you must be just about cooking!!!


  36. date symble company pur. Value

    30-Dec-20 HBAN Initial Stock Purchase ($3,690.00)

    Current Price $12.48 strike trade market Huntington Bancshares Inc. premium bal.

    30-Dec-20 $12.46 HBAN210716P11 16-Jul-21 11 -3 PUT 0.8 0.775 3.12%

    HBAN210716C14 16-Jul-21 14 -3 CALL 0.64 0.7 -9.37%

    0 0.00%

    Cash in Hand 0% ($3,700.50) $42.00 

     

    A covered call I just started , just look in to it high div.


  37. Are they still trading ? we have nearly new year here??? Why don't they close at 1PM at least ???


  38. Yodi – HBAN is going thru a merger, and while a good bank, I am not crazy about the dual HQ concept. You might want to look at PBCT, who have made some smart moves to diversify their business, and the div yield is even higher. From what I know about your style, I think they'd be a nice armchair trade for you.


  39. Happy NY everyone, stay safe. Phil, please give me a shout when you can, you have the cell. Thx!


  40. Nice job Yodi.  

    INTC/JPH – They'll get there.  

    Happy and healthy new year to you and your families!  


  41. Happy New Year to all here! 

    Thanks to Phil for steering us through some tricky times, let's hope next year is better in many ways with lots of good OPTIONS for everyone!


  42. Good morning and Happy New Year!

    Ok back to work :)

    I am short some puts on CHL. They are being delisted next week. Anyone know what will happen to the options?


  43. Phil. Chl. Do u know what this means.    Says they delisting on Jan 7.  Do. The shares tank completely now?
     

    NYSE To Delist China’s Telecom Giants On Trump’s Executive Order
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertolsen/2021/12/31/nyse-to-delist-chinas-telecom-giants-on-trumps-executive-order/


  44. Apparently no one actually understands what's happening:

    • The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE:ICE) will delist three Chinese telcos to comply with a U.S. executive order issued in November that imposed restrictions on companies identified as affiliated with the Chinese military.
    • China Mobile (NYSE:CHL), China Telecom (NYSE:CHA), China Unicom Hong Kong (NYSE:CHU) will be suspended from trading between Jan. 7 and Jan. 11, according to a statement from the exchange.
    • The executive order has also resulted in a series of companies being removed from indexes compiled by MSCI, S&P Dow Jones Global Indices and FTSE Russell, marking the latest escalation in tensions between the U.S. and China.
    • President Trump further signed a law last month that would kick Chinese companies off American exchanges if they have failed to comply with the U.S. Public Accounting Oversight Board's audits for three years in a row.

    The way the bill reads, the Chinese companies have 3 years to comply, not 3 days.  They are being suspended, not delisted.  Still, the rumor mill is churning and I can't definitively state one way or the other what will happen but they aren't disintegrating our CHL stock, just removing the listing from the NYSE.  If you are in it for the short haul and looking to transact – you might want to get out but, if you are in it for the long-term – you still own your shares of CHL.

    The delisting is likely to cause forced selling however so, if you don't plan on adding more on the way down – I don't think it's worth riding it out as it may take a very long time to pay off.


  45. Phil / CHL – thanks… I read it the same way in terms of timing ( 3 years) … that was for the reporting of financial data – passed by congress.   

    this latest one is for being owned by the military  - and this order ( presidential order ) says they have till November to stop trading in US…. It also was just recently interpreted by the NYSE as applying to subsidiaries of companies owned by military – which the US treasury determined that CHL was a subsidiary ( happened this past week).    I think up until then the exchanges were think  that the companies affected had to be owned by military, and subsidiaries were not affected….. ….  I think this is much more concerning….


  46. Phil CHL –   OK now see the BS goin on here –  this is another TRUMP fiasco…..  So it turns out the CEO of the NYSE is married to Kelly Loeffler – So t his to me appears to be more political….  Biden can easily reverse this – but not sure of the optics….  either way I doubt any other exchanges will follow…  I also think investors my sue NYSE on this…. although there are not a very large holders in US…


  47. I hope you all had a nice and safe new year entry, and hopefully followed the advice on corona restrictions. Obviously the French in one little town in France had 2500 people corona new year celebration, with no restrictions what so ever. I sincerely would like to know how many of the them pay the price of death. 
    For those in the mood here are some thought on trading. Actually the above remarks on CHL are very disturbing. However I do not wish to make any further vulgar remarks in respect to the departing clown.
    NOC a stock who made quite a swing between Feb 1. 20 at 385, Mar 23 about 270, and between Mar 20 and now a few swings between 352 and 288, now trading at 304.00. 
    It looks a bit like the moods of the clown. 
    The company operates through Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems segments. It designs, develops, integrates, and produces manned aircrafts, autonomous systems, spacecraft systems, high-energy laser systems etc.
    Noted the company is a profitable company with a positive cash flow, and for me on the lower side of the scale, with a potential of going back to its past heights. With a P.E. of 20.7 and a yield of 1.9% I feel for my liking, I would not buy the stock as a great div. payer. Even on the low side of the scale 304.00 $ would be a high amount of cash to put aside. 
    So I will start more conservative by buying the Jan 22 240 call for 72.40 and selling the May 21 300 call for 22.10. This will give me a cash investment of 50.30 against 304.00. ( The poor mans trade.)
    There are naturally various outcomes to this play. Say the stock climbs to 350, I can close my complete position with an outcome of 1026.00 or 20% in five Months on my 5030.00$ investment. Obviously I as well can roll up at a given time to avoid closing my play or assignment, and take another swing at it. 
    The best actually would be the stock would be around 300 in May and just sell another call with the same potential.
    Stays the stock at the same price as today in May, you looking at about 1420.00 or 28% in five Months.
    The break even in May is about 282.00 before losing money. 
    On the upside your max profit will hold itself in the range from 1000.00 to 900.00, by a stock value over 350$ and further up.
    All the above is naturally based on the buy and sell of 1 option play and can be increased as required, just don’t bet the form on it.!!!!!




  48. Welcome to the Era of Nonstop Stimulus


  49. AP Interview: India bars virus vaccine maker from exporting


  50. As Rollout Falters, Scientists Debate New Vaccination Tactics